The Queensland election so far is playing out according to script – Labor’s, that is. Anna Bligh wants the economy to be front and centre of the campaign. Far from being apologetic about the budget outlook and the consequent downgrading of the state’s credit rating, Bligh intends to turn the economic downturn to her advantage. She’ll be running on the theme of experience. At the same time, there’s an odd double step going on. On one hand, she wants to present herself – and a Labor caucus reinvigorated by the raft of retirements last week – coupled with a young Treasurer – as inaugurating a distinctly different regime from Peter Beattie’s. On the other hand, she’s quick to paint Lawrence Springborg as both inexperienced in government and old hat. The Borg, she argues, has been in Parliament since 1989, for over half his life. And he’s surrounded by shadow ministers from the National Party who’ve been resting their Blundstones on the green carpet of the Legislative Assembly for terms and terms without making much of an impact. There’s something of a dialectic of new and old, in other words. Both parties want to paint each other with quite a complex brush.
As the ABC news put it tonight, it’s Bligh’s first tilt at the Premiership but the Borg’s third.
With these somewhat confusing messages flying around, the focus tends to narrow to leadership. Here, Anna Bligh is counting on her advantages presentationally over Springborg, and on his country image. So far the Borg has arguably taken the bait laid out for him – contesting the battle of ideas, such as it is, on Labor’s preferred economic turf. That might be a sound choice in theory, but his own lack of any particular policy alternative or experience and his obsession with banging the drum about debt leaves him exposed to the risk of singing from a rather negative song sheet. If he flicks the switch to issues such as health – where Labor is vulnerable – he has to counter the ALP’s natural advantage in this policy domain and again risks sounding like the proverbial carping opposition leader. That might be a real problem when you’ve been there and lost that poll twice already.
So far, I’m finding it a bit difficult to map out what a viable political strategy from the LNP might be. Negativism and chanting “we’re united” really won’t cut the mustard, I don’t think.
The Borg’s rhetoric today seemed designed to play the protest vote card. Bligh’s rhetoric about the urgent need for an election to provide proven management during an accelerating crisis not of her marking sought to focus minds and negate the protest vote potential that’s always there after a long period in government. Bligh also made a prediction – that this would be the lowest spending campaign ever. Where does that leave the two parties?
Bligh hopes that it puts the focus back where she wants it – on leadership. Aside from restricting the ability of the opposition to credibly propose a big spend, there’s also a bit of a temptation there for the Borg to take the axe to the public service. “More teachers, fewer pen pushers”. The problem here is that – as Wayne Goss and Kevin Rudd would remember well from the 1995 election – a lot of Brisbanites are state employees, or related to public servants, and they’re a potent electoral force just where Springborg has to persuade not alienate every single voter he could possibly corral.
A “united conservative party” might be a necessary condition for victory, but it’s not a sufficient one. Just because Peter Beattie made merry in the past with feuding coalition shenanigans doesn’t mean that’s the only path to a Labor win. So far, it’s looking like the Borg’s biggest asset – in his own mind – is his personality campaign. The difficulty is that it’s hard to build a campaign around the leader’s personality when that same personality is somewhat underwhelming…
I took a $1.50 last night, I can only imagine that price shortening over the next 3 weeks. LNP might be new but its still full of the same old idiots with no idea how to run a campaign, the slick kids at the ALP will tear them a new one ….
I predict both the Greens and LNP poll numbers will continue to rise until march 21. Who knows what the QLD Devleopoers Party’s will do…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097842-5013945,00.html
lmoa did you guys see the australian‘s cut & paste beat up of lp? i love how pissy old media gets ^_^
I’m new to this site. I read about you in the Australian today – nice advertising campaign.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25096868-20261,00.html
This has all the hallmarks of a dissatisfying election, almost a second-last victory like Howard 2004, NSW 1984 & 2007 or Victoria 1989.
The incumbents will get there but their mistakes will be covered up by spin or not exploited effectively by the LNP. In the coming term of Parliament, the wheels will fall off Labor and the [whatever configuration conservative politics takes] will start to land a few blows, until there is a) a clear pattern from the [whatever configuration conservative politics takes], and b) people warm to that pattern in a way they haven’t so far.
Springborg will lay the ground for ultimate Labor defeat, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be Premier in April 2009. It will take someone else to get there. He doesn’t havre the dumb luck of Borbidge but he’s a hell of a lot better than Seeney, but that’s mediocrity for you: could be better, could be worse. Like Hewson in ’93 he can see the weak points but he just can’t land the blows.
Bligh will win but can’t reinvent longterm issues like dams and transport, let alone the daily grind of health, education and Laura Norder. People will just get sick of her, and the [whatever configuration conservative politics takes] won’t have to do much to lift their game. Queenslanders, do you think she’d go federal?
Ha! Thanks to our friends at the Oz… taking a leaf out of Tim Blair’s book of selective quotation I see!
Stuart Copeland running as an independent … now that’s gonna make the LNP look good, not.
I heard Ronan Lee on the news stating that he thinks the Greens can pull up to 3 seats in this election. What do you think their chances are?
I would say their vote will increase, with a number of dissatisfied Labor voters putting Greens first to send a message, but actually getting seats is another thing…
Did he say which seats, Marmaduke?
I don’t believe they have any realistic chance of winning a seat. Indooroopilly I think is an outside chance, but unlikely.
Not that I heard in the snippet on 792, I was trying to think of that myself… but my knowledge of Qld State electorates is limited to where I’ve resided (and the Greens have no chance in any of these!).
“I heard Ronan Lee on the news stating that he thinks the Greens can pull up to 3 seats in this election. What do you think their chances are?”
Buckleys and none.
They’d have to be Mt Cootha, Brisbane Central, and South Brisbane which will come into play when LNP announces they aren’t running candidates in those seats, telling conservative voters in those seats to just Vote Green 1 and drive a stake through the heart of queensland labor. ( note: not indooripilly, it’s payback time, first just for Ronan ratting, also anna is paying back anne warner- for giving her the Sth Bris seat- by pre-selecting her daughter there, the campaign to insure Sarah gets up will get major resources thrown at it, Ronan will have an enforced holiday, and slip into Greens Senate #1 spot)
Will the LNP pick up enough Brisbane seats to install a ‘Liberal’ from Brisbane as opposition leader? This could be the final end of Qld political exceptionalism.
Stuart Copeland running as Independent in Condamine link.
…and in more “Meet the Borgias” news from Vaudeville, Qld:
<a href= Qld magnate cancels media conference
I’ve just emailed Stuart to see if he’s interested in writing something for us about his decision to run as an independent, Danny.
Re Condamine, Independents have a good track record in Condamine as the incumbent will attest.
As for Palmer and his ‘press conferences’. Such events would be the Borg’s recurring nightmare.
Mark: Tres versatile, not just “picking up the phone” but “banging out an email” too. The MSMers will have to expand their essential skills set even further.
Go on, call Bazza, and tell him you’re available for Insiders.
Re: Stuart …Well he has posted on LP before. Why not invite that other MP who has as well? He’d be a brave man to say yes, but you never know. Get the platform right and you could run a “Meet The Candidates” online debate. Stuart, Gibson, Ronan, and McNamara.
Yeh, right, as if they’d run the risk…
See how we go, Danny. A bit of a meet the candidates online forum is a good idea! Time is the enemy in a campaign, though.
Pauline Hanson is running.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25100435-29277,00.html
Danny – touched base with Stuart Copeland. Watch this space.
Concerned at #1, excellent “two-horse-race” punt taking the ALP yesterday at $1.50, especially when viewed alongside the latest odds. A 50% ROI in less than a month is a nice little earner in these turbulent economic times. S&P could only agree.
LABOR PARTY 1.34
LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY 3.15
I just saw the Channel 10 news poll of 4000 people. 70% to LNP. Don’t think there was a green option…as usual. On the possible seats, look to Larissa Waters. And Ronan is cunning, he has something planned for sure.
I will see how I go with any green candidates Mark. Will approach them directly re meet the candidates debate. I know a few indie candidates too.
Extra, Extra, Read All About It: Shafted Tory MP Posts On Partisan Labor Blog!
Mike Horan says “I was just cleaning it and it went off”
I’ve had a reply from Stuart, Danny, and I’ll be “picking up the phone” to have a yarn to him tomorrow.
Thanks for the offer, Steve.
In some ways, Mt Cootha is a better bet for The Greens than Indooro, but as I think I was saying on an earlier thread, it would be very difficult to push their vote higher than the LNP’s given the demographics, preferences would probably not flow anyway, and Andrew Fraser’s going to get a good primary. I think The Greens would be best advised to treat this election as a bit of a party/vote building exercise. I don’t know if they were caught on the hop by the early election, but I do think a longer build up to it would have served them well.