Terrorism in Pakistan is, sadly, not that surprising. An attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team’s bus is. According to ABC news, five players, and their Australian coach Trevor Bayliss, were wounded, and are being treated by the team doctor. Hopefully this indicates that their wounds are not serious. Several Pakistani police were not so lucky.
On ABC Radio’s PM program tonight, Sally Sara was indicating that the locals are genuinely shocked by the deliberate targeting of a cricket team, particularly Sri Lanka. The Sri Lankan government has stated that they don’t believe the Tamil Tigers are involved, and if I recall correctly the Tigers have long left cricket alone. So the suspicion is likely to be on Pakistani militants of one kind or another.
Whatever the other consequences of this, no international cricket will be played in Pakistan for quite a while, as Kamran Abbasi notes with sadness and anger at Cricinfo.
Clearly we need to get all our military assets out of the NT and Victoria and send them up the Khyber pass. And I’m sure the defense Minister would agree with me.
1. The govt in Pakistan has conceded the NW Province to Sharia law effectively making it an extension of the Taliban ’state’.
2. Pakistan is totally fubar.
3. They’ve also got nukes.
4. Gulp.
India will be making sure they have their nuke codes at the ready, now.
What, Steve? An armed attack on Mumbai and the Indian state didn’t invade or bomb Pakistan, but HARM the SRI LANKAN CRICKETERS and nuclear war must follow?
Come now. Not serious, are you?
I’d always paid a fair bit of heed to Imran Khan’s assertion that terrorists wouldn’t attack cricketers. Turns out even he was wrong.
And what Adrien said.
The situation in Pakistan scares me far more than concerns about Iran obtaining nukes.
There was an excellent article in a recent issue of the New York Review of Books on Pakistan. It’s a review of Ahmed Rashid’s book Descent into Chaos.
Higly recommended.
I think the message is that there is no such thing as ‘business as usual’ in Pakistan any more. Obama is said to be reviewing American policies in the region. This is a timely warning of the seriousness of the matter.
I presume SATP was making a similar point to Adrian.
For what it’s worth, I think he’s right. The WWII acronym I was actually planning to use in the title of this article was TARFU. Things Are Really Fucked Up in Pakistan right now.
Ominous too that the Sri Lankans were supposedly well guarded and that no one has claimed responsibility, perhaps because with the estimated 12 attackers having escaped, there is no obvious reason to admit. To be fair, the police guarding the cricketers seem to have taken the brunt of the attack with casualties, hence the ease of escape for these fanatics. My guess is that this affront to the Pakistani elite might spur them into the action that the Indian Government has been calling for – banning certain pro-Taliban pro-Jihadi groups as a first step.
If several police died and the cricketers suffered minor injuries, I’d say “the Sri Lankans were … well guarded” sounds accurate.
A sad day. Why, next we’ll see some group seize athletes in an Olympic Village. You read my prediction first at LP. Trump that, Strocchers!
As the bloke at the petrol station said to me this morning, “That’s the end of the Taliban. The Pakis will go after them now. Cricket is sacred.”
Stuff the cricket. Six families of the police have lost someone dear to them. Two civilians die and how many others? More heartache
And people are writing that this is “regrettable”, but hey, the cricketers are OK. whew. Oh we won’t have cricket in Pakistan, oh bollocks.
grrrrrrrr
(see, I am speechless all I can do is growl and cry)
My deepest sympathies to those who lost someone they loved.
Oh, I should point out the “regrettable” quote is from media sources other than LP.
Shaun and dif – I couldn’t agree more.
Quite frankly I hope this scares the Pakistan military into taking this seriously.
The other thing I hope is that they have their Permissive Action Links on those nukes under tight control. Same for India.
Scary reading:
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp
Get over this “Omg lyk the terrsts will get the nukez” rubbish.
Read ANYTHING by Tariq Ali, who knows more about Pakistan than any other second rate pundit. The military in the cities control the nukes and the military is anything but a terrorist hot bed.
And same with this crap of using “Taliban” as a catch all cry for extremism in Pakistan. It’s worthy of the Daily Telegraph, not the insightful commentators at LP.
Oh, and one more – Sick of bloody sports journalists parading themselves around pretending they’re some kind of experts on terrorism. Getting them to talk about this attack is as stupid as getting baristas to talk about the attacks in a Mumbai cafe.
“…insightful commentators at LP” Oxymoron of the year, & only March yet.
Oz: you’ll note that I didn’t use “Taliban” or “Al-Queda” once in the original post.
As far as the all-powerful Pakistani military keeping nukes safe, sure, probably. But intelligence services have lost control of organizations they’ve substantially created on several occasions in the past (Hamas, anyone?).
Oz – I didn’t say they’d get a hold of the things, only that I hoped their military had proper controls over their use (please look up PAL). If they do have such controls it won’tmatter anywhere near as much even if everyhting went to hell in a handbasket. If they don’t have such controls then we have to trust the military really is in control.
I do not claim either of those orginisations are involved – given how messed up Pakistan is currently it could be any of a dozen different groups all with different agendas (including those that would like a war with India).
The NRDC report is scary for the casualty numbers quoted (admittedly for ideal use of nukes).
Perhaps I should be a little more careful with my wording in future!
Anyway, back to the topic – looks like the security forces managed to push off the attackers rather quickly, combined with the bus drivers efforts they avoided a situation that could’ve been much worse.
“Oz: you’ll note that I didn’t use “Taliban” or “Al-Queda” once in the original post.”
I know, that’s why I said “commentators” (those who post comments).
“As far as the all-powerful Pakistani military keeping nukes safe, sure, probably. But intelligence services have lost control of organizations they’ve substantially created on several occasions in the past (Hamas, anyone?).”
The Pakistani military and the ISI are not the same thing. There’s significant friction between the leadership of both, not least due to the ISI’s tendency to create extremist cells that the military then have to clean up.
Those two above sentences have little linking them. There’s no doubt a lot of the extremist groups in Pakistan were either directly or indirectly created by the CIA and/or the Pakistani intelligence services. But that doesn’t really much when it comes to the Pakistani military.
Steveh, again my comments were not directed at you – more at comments like Adrien, Shaun etc.
I’m not 100% on the details of the security systems surrounding Pakistani nuclear weapons, but I recall the US providing hundreds of million of dollars in military aid to help secure them, but they refused to share the PAL system.
Oz – it’s a bit of a catch 22 with the PAL system, to provide it or not could be risky both ways.
At least the US seems to be keeping a close eye on things.
Does anyone have a “read” on how powerful the ISI are in the hierarchy over there? I understand the military tries to keep a tight lid on things but the ISI seem to be able to poke whatever ants nest they like without much loss of authority.
The Pakistani’s who live near us (here for 6 months) are livid about this attack – they reckon it will not go down well over there at all.
I think steveh and grace have a point — the terrorists may have done the seemingly impossible — ie pissed off the greater Pakistani public.
And these guys were Bush’s bosom buddies in the GWOT?
What a screwed-up place. Political murder apprears to be a way of life there, after all, the topped Benazir Butto without a second thought. Now it’s the turn of a bunch of gormless cricketers.
The place is just another Afghanistan. This time with nukes.
Why we have anythuing to do with these wackos is beyone me.
SATP, may I point out that you’re a regular commenter here yourself? If you hold the joint in such lofty contempt, why do you spend so much time here?
I think the level of support the terrorists had in Pakistan prior to these attacks has been vastly overstated, though it’s true attacking cricket players won’t engender them many new converts. The biggest areas of support for what we in the West call “Al-Qaeda” are, as you would expect, in the tribal and the Pashtun areas. These people have long historical and social connections with the Afghani’s and are vehemently oppose to the Pakistani government’s role in the war on terror. The fact that they’re getting bombed by the US on a fairly regular basis doesn’t help.
In the rest of the country there is a tiny minority of religious extremists who occasionally manifest when there’s a power struggle or vacuum going on in the government – as we saw with the Red Mosque incident in Islamabad earlier. The religious parties (closely affiliated with extremist groups) got a tiny proportion of the vote, barely 2%, at the last general election and this was mostly in the frontier provinces I was talking about anyway.
Deprive a commentator of oxygen, and what are you left with?
Steveh, technically the ISI are part of the military and the Director has to come from the Army. However, this doesn’t stop it from acting, at different times, independent of both the rest of the military and the government.
Initially it’s role was too purely assess intelligence but after the first military coup, by General Ayub Khan, to help sustain his grip on power, it’s reach was greatly extended and it began collecting intelligence, monitoring dissidents and other Chekist type roles.
Successive military regimes have expanded the scope of the ISI and with support from the CIA it’s created new political parties and organisations (some of which we know very well), rigged elections and monitored civilians. The irony is that while it’s always been military leaders who have extended its power and civilian leaders like the first Bhutto who have retracted it, the more powerful it gets the less it relies on the military high command.
*Monitored civilians should be monitored politicians.
Grace, steveh and skepticlawyer—I’m fairly sure I disagree. Assuming that the group behind the attack were “Taliban” or ethnic militants from the border with Afghanistan, well-liked international cricketers under the protection of the Government make a perfect target.
Their aim isn’t to be well-liked (duh! terrorists!) but rather, to disrupt political business-as-usual, create disorder, and most of all, defeat the Pakistani nation-state’s monopoly of lawful political violence. They’re not trying to take over the State as a substitute elite, like guerrillas inspired by Mao or Guevara. They’re trying to destroy the legitimacy of nation-states altogether.
The message isn’t “we hate cricketers and freedom”, but “the Government is broken and can’t protect you or anything you hold dear—start looking for someone who can”.
[Their aim isn’t to be well-liked (duh! terrorists!) but rather, to disrupt political business-as-usual, create disorder, and most of all, defeat the Pakistani nation-state’s monopoly of lawful political violence.]
And to make international headlines.
Which, as this incident shows, is much more effective then killing Pakistani soldiers.
Further reading: Londonistani at Abu Muqawama.
Hilarious.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2506874.htm?section=justin
“US President Barack Obama has expressed deep concern about the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Pakistan, Washington’s increasingly besieged ally in the campaign against terrorism.”
Surely Obama is clever enough to realise that the rise in extremism in Pakistan is directly related not only to the war in Afghanistan but also the US’ propping up of various corrupt regimes and their bombing of the NWFP.
The strategy at the moment seems to be try and “fix” Afghanistan, watch Pakistan go to hell in a hand basket and then say “Woah, how did that happen?”.
I find it hard to grasp what the militants are trying to achieve in a political sense by shooting Sri Lankan cricketers. It’s hardly a way to win Pakistani hearts and minds is it? Cricket is the secular religion that unites the sub-continent.
If anything, their actions will swing domestic support in Pakistan behind the military in wiping them out.
Liam says they want to destroy the legitimacy of nation states altogether. And replace them with what exactly??
Mr Denmore, here’s a bit of reading (from before the attacks on the cricketers) about local law replacing the State in Pakistan.
The attacks, as I’ve said, aren’t about winning hearts and minds—and the military is showing itself quite unable and unwilling to do anything, let alone “wipe out” anyone.
Mr Denmore:
The nation-state will be replaced by the Ummah. At least the Islamists are upfront about their One World Government conspiracy, unlike those cunning Zionists/liberals …
I reckon Liam is correct. They want to create a post-national community, or rather set of communities, where certain forms of religious and cultural authority will no longer be pre-empted by the institutions of the state.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C03%5C03%5Cstory_3-3-2009_pg7_10
I don’t know enough to know whether Pakistan was involved or not. My take is, if it happens in BD, it can happen there.
“…local law replacing the State in Pakistan….”
The Taliban are naive, Liam, in their belief that their atomised communities won’t sooner or later come together (as a state, maybe called Pakistan) under “the one who rules them all”, whether that be a parliamentary government, or some bloke who treats women like animals.
As Mr Denmore most wisely said:
“Cricket is the secular religion that unites the sub-continent.”
And here’s cheers for that.
The footage was interesting. It’s clear that the gunmen were firing at their targets from a distance. This was a stand-off attack. It is clear that the gunmen intended to escape alive. This can be contrasted with the Bombay attacks whose participants clearly knew that they were sent on a suicide mission.
Yet the gunmen in both attacks were dressed, armed and accoutred in very similar ways, suggesting a common source of both attacks.
Why did the Lahore gunmen think that they could escape? The answer would appear to be that they believed that they had a reliable support infrastructure that would help to conceal them and to assist their escape.
This being the case, then Pakistan has a huge problem of a well-embedded counter-cultural cadre dedicated to destabilisation and delegitimisation of the Pakistani state. And this cadre extends far beyond the wild Northwestern provinces into the cultural heartland of Pakistan.
[Yet the gunmen in both attacks were dressed, armed and accoutred in very similar ways, suggesting a common source of both attacks.]
Really? In Mumbai the attackers were wearing Western clothing. In Lahore they were wearing traditional Pakistani clothes. In Mumbai, I’m not sure exactly what weapons they had but I believe they were submachine guns – no RPG’s, like in Lahore. Also, much is being made over the fact the gunmen were wielding “Kalashnikov’s and 9MM’s”, thus highlighting how well embedded the terrorists are. Those are two of the most popular guns in the world and can be readily sourced from a number of markets within Pakistan.
I think that Mumbai and Lahore were unusual in the sense that there was a decent amount of footage of both attacks while they were going on. A lot of these “analysts” and journalists had probably never seen a fire fight before and are thinking “Hey, they’re kinda the same! They’re linked”.
Oz, my concern is based on the assumption that the Pakistani military does have some ties to certain terrorist groups. It seems that Pakistan is becoming unstable and with strained relations with India it is a worry especially who controls the nuclear on buttons.
If you a correct re the military involvement in terrorist groups then I’m happy to stand corrected.
Gosh, they wore clothing appropriate to the locations of their attacks. Who wooda thunk?
RPGs are more appropriate to a stand-off attack, like the one mounted in Lahore.
The important elements are that the Lahore incident was not a suicide attack and the principle actors haven’t been captured yet, suggesting an effective support structure. Indeed, this support structure may well be in elements of the Pakistani military, which would make these attacks even more ominous.
The purpose of terrorists is to – umm – terrorise. I think Liam is on the money with the notion that they are breaking the state monopoly on state violence, but there are perhaps elements of the same old sh*t-stirring. They don’t claim responsibility because they know the Pakis will suspect the Indians.
Another factor is that some of these types are not concerned about winning the public over. They want to make clear that no-one is safe, so it is an aspiration to a culture where fear reigns supreme.
On balance so far the finger seems to be pointing at Lashkar e-Taiba who probably did Mumbai and are based around Lahore, I believe, and were/are supported by ISI and the army.
With agendas in the west to support cross-border Pashtun solidarity and keeping the Indians on the hop in Kashmir in the east, plus the Saudi influence in promoting their brand of radical Islam through funding the madrassas, and double games being played from the very top after 9/11, the economy down the drain and the whole country in what the UN calls water stress with rivers to support irrigation coming from elsewhere, the whole thing is teetering towards failed state status.
Could be that the terrorists have shot themselves in the foot with this incident. Shooting cricketers in cricket-mad Pakistan wouldn’t win them any support I would think and it may even prompt someone to dob them in. Interesting times.
Summary of #42:
So there are virtually no similarities between Mumbai and Lahore. You went from saying they were dressed and armed similarly to agreeing they weren’t.
No one has successfully linked the Pakistani army to domestic terrorist organistions. This is contrast to the ISI who have a known and documented history of creating and providing support to them. The army does provide some equipment certain groups within Kashmir, but that’s a different issue.
The reason why “Pakistan army” and “terrorism” are linked in the media, most of the time, is because soldiers fighting in the border region are often fighting against their own tribes, ethnic groups and “Muslim brothers”.
An interesting observation once made to me by an Indian Army Colonel.
“What you have to remember about Pakistan is that it’s basically a military encampment with a country attached.”
I’m not sure to this day whether he sounded amused or envious.
I heard Simon Taufel today ask why after leaving at the same time for two days the bus carrying the Pakistani cricketers left 5 minutes later on the third day.
He also reckoned there were supposed to be 25 Pakistani commandos protecting them who were nowhere to be seen when the fun began. And wasn’t amused to see TV footage showing the perpetrators just strolling off down the street at the end.
There were three relevant segments on PM tonight, with commentators giving some hope. Pakistani politics seems endemically ordinary, to say the least.
Murali made the same observation, Brian, as well as suggesting that there may have been something of an ‘inside job’.
Brian, there have been a few comments about the security forces’ response. Chris Broad, for example, has said that they were nowhere to be seen once the firing started. Perhaps it’s right that they didn’t do all that they could. However, it seems a little insensitive to say so in view of the fact that no fewer than 16 policemen were wounded, six fatally.
BBB
BBB and SL, Simon Taufel was talking about 20 to 25 commandos with the convoy, not policemen as per this report today on The World Today. Musharraf said that some of the attackers should have been shot dead within three seconds.
They speak of a “convoy” and “VIP security”. I gather that the bus containing the players tore off and escaped, albeit having taken some fire. The driver of the vehicle containing the umpires was shot dead. I heard that someone, presumably a policeman, tried to take over but it turned out he couldn’t drive the thing. They sat there taking fire for a considerable time before someone managed to drive them away without being shot.
Presumably there were support vehicles with said commandos who must have taken off and fled with the players’ bus. You’d think that they should have returned fire to provide cover for the people who they were guarding to get away.
There was also criticism because the police station, I think the main one, was only a few hundred metres away and no reinforcements appeared.
So it might be a big stuff up rather than a conspiracy, but it could be a bit of both.
BTW the place where it happened is said to be an elite area of Lahore. Geoff Lawson said he lived 200 metres from the scene while he was coach of the Pakistan team.
Just in, Javed Miandad reckons Chris Broad should be banned for life for his comments. Hard to see why.
I expect that Oz will waste no time in explaining to the Pakistani authorities that they are chasing a red herring:
Wow a corrupt military collaborator with direct political interests in the results of any investigation – awesome.
I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of possibility that the same people who were behind Mumbai were behind these attacks. I do take issue with silly comments like “They were dressed the same, they were armed the same, their tactics were the same, their goal was the same”. These statements are either all factually incorrect or completely irrelevant.
“They were dressed the same, they were armed the same, their tactics were the same, their goal was the same”
As I said in my original post Mumbai was a suicide mission, whereas Lahore was clearly devised to enable the gunmen to escape. These are opposite tactics, so why do you persist in asserting that I stated that the tactics were the same?
I never made any statement one way or another about the goals of these attacks.
Neither did I assert that it was certain that these two attacks emanated from the same source. Like you, I don’t rule it in or out. Do you have an alternative definition of the word “suggesting”?
With regard to armaments, it is true that the Mumbai gunmen do not appear to have carried RPGs but as at Lahore, they did carry grenades and assault rifles. As you say, these armaments are very common in the region. But is is also true that they did not wear suicide belts. Thus both the Lahore and Mumbai gunmen were expected to use marksmanship to wreak the damage they caused, which requires a much higher level of training than that expected of a suicide bomber. Given that the Mumbai attack was a suicide mission, the question (which I am not attempting to answer) is why operatives with considerable expertise in firearms were chosen rather than suicide bombers.
Katz, not everything in all my posts has been directed at you. Plenty of people are suggesting the two things are inexplicably linked for the reasons you’ve “suggested” and more. I’m pointing at that upon closer inspection, those links really aren’t there.