We’ve got a real contest on our hands in the Smart State (perhaps over the future of that moniker!) as Queenslanders vote today. At Crikey’s dedicated Qld election blog, Possum, William “The Poll Bludger” Bowe and I will be liveblogging the count tonight from about 6pm Brisbane time.
Details will be posted later this arvo, and you can also check out Pineapple Party Time for the latest polling, analysis and distributed news about polling day vibes and shenanigans.
I’ve just put up a prediction/seats to watch post. The upshot is that I’m tipping Labor 45, LNP 40, Ind 4. The seats in question and my reasoning (and why I think the vote has swung back in Labor’s direction) are explained here.
William and I will also be doing intermittent audio updates via Skype and livestreaming at The Sunday Talk throughout the evening.
Those outside Queensland or away from a tv who are interested in following the ABC’s coverage can access a livestream at Antony Green’s election page.
Update: The liveblogging will take place here.
Update: [by Mark] William and I will be chatting to Matthew Kopelke at The Sunday Talk on the hour and at half past the hour respectively, with me kicking off at 6.30pm Queensland Time. You can listen here.
Update: The liveblogging will take place here.
Update: [by Mark] William and I will be chatting to Matthew Kopelke at The Sunday Talk on the hour and at half past the hour respectively, with me kicking off at 6.30pm Queensland Time. You can listen here.
Gosh, will this municipal excitement please be over soon so we can resume normal programming
?
Ken – if you’d seen what sort of stuff the Nats got up to during their last spell in Queensland, I don’t think you’d dismiss this as unimportant or provincial.
Not wanting to nitpick, but you seem to have a total of 93 seats in your prediction.
Oh, sorry, that’s just a typo in this post. It’s right at PPT. I’ll fix it.
Oh bum: I was looking forward to seeing which ministry John Bjelke Petersen would be given
I feel very confident
Regards
Goanna
How is it shaping up, Mark?
It’s OK, I have just seen the google news. Congratulations for voting in the first elected female Premier. I hope that this is an indicator to our first female Prime Minister, soon.
Congratulations Anna.Er Huggy correctly predicted the outcome in these pages – a Labor win – ahem.listen to the Hug and you cannot go wrong.
Huggy
Where are you Stroccibot? Tell us all about it.
Next is the Jay Leno Show
and (d) all round..
Oh, to be a fly on the wall at “Fresh” HQ!
Even though I live in NSW, I’ll sleep well tonight. National Party vanquished once again. I vaguely remember making a comment in an earlier thread to the effect that since Queensland voters were eminently commonsensical they would undoubtedly re-elect Bligh. Glad to see I got it right.
The ‘pollsters’ just left the room. All of them! And by the back door. Going to listen to Radio CM on Monday. Might even ring in. LOL.
wpd, the polls were on the money. Newspoll was taken Wed/Thursday and the swing back to the ALP started on Wednesday night with the final advertising blitz, and gathered momentum. ALP tracking polls show this.
A huge effort was put in over the last two days at the level of individual seats – with messages targeted towards the vote changing issues at each seat. I think I made the point – riffing off Graham Young’s polling and the last Galaxy poll- that there was a lot of volatility and uncertain votes being parked with The Greens (who, I think, went backwards statewide even though they increased the number of seats they contested). The campaign finally was liberated from the grip of the apparatchiks as well.
The most salient issue working against Labor was health, but the LNP had no credibility there.
It’s also very much a personal victory for Anna Bligh.
@12 – yes, I don’t think Jack Strocchi’s “scientific” methodology proved a good predictor. I hope he didn’t back it with the bookies.
Wasn’t even worried!
It was great seeing the right-wingers squirm on Sky’s coverage. Hawker and Arbib were right to mock them squealing about postal votes when the writing was pretty much on the wall. Thankfully that’s the end of Springborg!
Congrats to Anna Bligh for making history too.