Ted Baillieu carries on with his stunts as though Labor are the natural party of government, Victorian voters have bought into this narrative too, and all Brumby has to do is steady the ship.

Spot on. Baillieu is always carping at margins, waiting for Brumby to lose office, something which may not be too far away with Labor’s stuff ups on water policy (desalination, and empty north-south pipeline, and still logging catchments), forest policy (still logging old growth) and climate change (approval to build another coal fired power station + a gas one too) and the list goes on.

The trouble is, the Liberals would actually be no different on any of these topics. If they went green they would differentiate, because Labor sure ain’t green. But the Libs seemed to still be locked in denial.

In 1995 the NSW Libs thought it was some sort of mistake that Labor won State government (I was a delegate to State Council at this point, but I’m all better now). There was an obsession about how few voters changed their votes to produce that result, and how few it would take to reverse it. There was even a policy called “the Bathurst solution”, which involved a regional seat held by an old Labor MP with multiple illnesses – the grand vision was that this man would die/retire, there’d be a byelection and the Libs would win, which would give them momentum etc. Didn’t quite work – oh well, next stunt please! The overwhelming narrative was that “there was nothing wrong with our policies, they just need to be sold better”.

That mindset was replicated by the Victorian Libs after Kennett lost, and by all State Libs who’ve had power prised from their clammy fingers. The same thing is happening Federally.

This is why there’s such a focus on shallow events like marketing, PR and stunts. Liberal backroom operators will grumble about donations because low donations mean fewer ads – and they are focused on the perfect 30-second spot that makes people who think Rudd(/Bligh/Rann/Brumby/etc.) is doing a good job to think again. They really believe that’s what they need.

They really believe that anyone who goes out and consults with community groups, researches statistics, reads the fine print of government reports, produces earnest and carefully-costed position papers (and all that stuff what Politics I tutorials say oppositions do) is a complete wanker who just isn’t focused on “the main game”, “the big picture”, etc. For what does it profit a man that he should repel the whole electorate but get a mention from Glenn Milne? Within the Liberal Party, plenty. That explains why Tony Abbott, the Shadow Minister for Families etc., spends all his time ruminating on anything but issues within “his” portfolio.

Now you understand why Nathan Rees hasn’t slashed his wrists – he has seen the NSW Libs up close and still fancies his chances. The NSW Libs are right to consider themselves favourites for the next election, but given the fact that they have no real clue about what to do about NSW’s structural problems (no surplus from the time of plenty, transport and utility infrastructure dangerously inadequate, economic stagnation and no new revenue sources), you can expect them to get in for two or three terms and then hand government back to Labor. That’s why Labor is the default government of NSW, and that mindset has a grip on the Liberals too (except for O’Farrell. He has a first-class political brain and, just as Wran and Carr led a bunch of duffers to more than they deserved, so too might O’Farrell).

In Victoria, the Liberals took policy seriously – it was part of the “natural party of government” mentality. Now it’s gone, and Ted Baillieu carries on with his stunts as though Labor are the natural party of government, Victorian voters have bought into this narrative too, and all Brumby has to do is steady the ship. Same with SA, and now Anna Bligh has cottoned onto this as well. Carpenter lost in WA because he knew it was theoretically possible that Labor could lose and Colin Barnett was the only Liberal MP who wouldn’t buy into the reactionary mindset – he actually had high-level experience of Liberal government and believed in a Liberal way of governing.

In 19952007 the NSWFederal Libs thought it was some sort of mistake that Labor won NSWFederal government. There was an obsession about how few voters changed their votes to produce that result, and how few it would take to reverse it. There was even a policy called “the Bathurst solution”, which involved a regional seat held by an old Labor MP with multiple illnessesBelinda Neal – the grand vision was that this manwoman would die/retirequit, there’d be a byelection and the Libs would win, which would give them momentum etc. Didn’t quite work – oh well, next stunt please! The overwhelming narrative wasis that “there wasis nothing wrong with our policies, they just need to be sold better”.

Pardon me if I’ve seen this narrative before. Those of you who aren’t from NSW will read the above and accuse me of being NSW-centric: firstly, I’m describing a pattern that first manifested itself in NSW and is at its most acute there, and secondly I don’t care, carn the mighty Blues/Waratahs/Swans etc.

What’s the answer? Eventually, Rudd and Gillard will get sick of governing. That’s it, really. A few months ago there was a thread which said that demographic change would go against the Libs long-term, and I called bullshit on that – the above mindset, my friends, is the real reason why the Liberals are buggered for the foreseeable future.

Turnbull et al are running very close to the wind with their “attacks” on the handling of asylum seekers and the “invading hordes” myth. it seems they have learnt nothing from the Howard governments extreme abrogation of human rights when they routinely locked up asylum seekers and their children for lengthy periods purely as a “deterrent”.

Agree with LeftyE, there is a lot of projection going on. Including on climate change policy, with Labor’s CPRS being no different from what a Howard Government would have brought it, perhaps a year later.

Either way, we could all do without I think.

Agree, BBB.

Now this is projection. I know that, in certain circles, it has become accepted that the Coalition lost the last election by reason of an accumulation of complaints (highlighted, of course, by Teh Left) on issues like immigration, foreign policy, etc. and because of Howard’s relentless appeal to the baser instincts of suburban Australia. The truth is that John Howard lost because the electorate considered WorkChoices a terrible betrayal. There is no need to re-imagine the result as a broad victory for leftist politics or policies. How quickly have the pundits forgotten Rudd’s pre-election me-tooism!

Kim’s point is well-made though. Clearly the ALP is being careful not to repeat the Coalition’s bumbling (and mendacity) on this kind of thing, and the Coalition hasn’t yet understood that indulging in more and more shrill point-scoring is simply, well, pointless (if not genuinely counter-productive).

Finally, can we please quit with the ‘Petit Mal’ stuff? It’s either grossly insensitive or the product of hopeless ignorance. Either way, we could all do without I think.

BBB

Projection is the only modus operandi that the Libs understand. I agree with Lefty E @ 1 that the media is assisting though I’m not sure whether it is through solidarity or adversity. Tony Jones’ combative interview against Bob Debus showed him at his gotcha worst. Bob Debus showed forbearance and dignity to finally cut through the barrage from Jones during the Lateline interview of Tuesday, 21 April.

Please don’t do that again, it’s a bugger cleaning it.

Oh that’s gold, gold Jerry gold!

Certainly the libs “need to get out of a mindspace of denial and projection”, but before they can “engage with the Australian community”, they need to actually THINK. They still haven’t grasped why they lost the last election. As a result, they have hamstrung Nelson and Turnbull in turn with their pathetic internal quarreling.

Nelson would have done a good job at ‘healing’ them, given a chance, and Turnbull certainly has leadership qualities. But neither has been able to lead because the party is preoccupied with trivia instead of taking a good hard look at itself. Until they have figured out who they are, the Australian public can’t engage with them: how can you have a relationship with a whingeing cloud of fog?

Yeah- I only like the bipartisan attacks.

Heh!

Frock them all