There will be a by-election on 16 May for the seat of Fremantle, traditionally a very safe Labor seat, on the same day as the daylight saving referendum. With no Liberal candidate, it will be a race between Fremantle Mayor Peter Tagliaferri and environmental/anti-coast development activist Adele Carles. I’ve spoken to Labor people who are always pessimistic about these things who think Labor will lose to the Greens, and I’ve spoken to those who are usually more balanced in their predictions who think they’ll hold on. No-one seems to be panicking, which makes me think that the ALP will hold the seat, although it’s also possible that the lack of panic is because even people who work in the party have stopped giving a shit about state Labor. (Or maybe that’s just me.)
Fremantle is undergoing a shift that’s similar to other safe Labor seats around the country that are so “safe” that they’re at risk of being lost to the Greens. The common belief is that Jim McGinty nearly lost the seat in last year’s state election, although it was not nearly as close as that. The ALP received 7286 first preference votes compared to 5689 for the Libs and 5191 for the Greens. A good result, but still third (thanks, Antony Green). Carles would have needed second preferences from most of the 350 Christian Democrat votes and 318 Family First votes just to move into second place. The belief that she’d won arose due to the WAEC’s inability to properly count three-way contests; a similar misunderstanding happened in Morley (I think) in which the wrong candidate was tentatively declared the winner in the media at the same time as seasoned scrutineers were saying wtf? when a few returning officers got clever without understanding how preference flows work in close three-party contests. But the Greens did receive a high enough vote to cause Labor some concern.
This by-election won’t affect government – either an independent or an opposition MP will be the result. So while issues such as development and environment and workers rights are important, the result will probably be based more on symbolism. The Greens will do well in part because so many Labor voters are in a struggle for the party itself, and they won’t have to risk losing government to do it.
Pre-selecting a candidate who has questionable Labor values may skew the left vote towards the Greens, although the lack of an official Liberal candidate could help deliver the non-left vote; although the conservatives do seem to still be well-represented, as you can see from the Pollbludger’s list, conservative voters are still going to have to decide which of the two major candidates their vote will ultimately support.
There has been a lot of noise about the “anti-democratic” nature of Tagliaferri’s preselection for the seat. I’ve written about my views on that before; focussing on candidate preselections is to completely misunderstand the issue and why it matters. Paul Murray, who must be used to being wrong about these things by now, writes that the candidate should have been elected by the “broad grassroots base of the State executive”. Heh. Anyone who knows even a little about party politics would have giggled at that. Sure, there are more votes on State Ex, but they mostly belong to the unions, whose votes decide the make-up of the Admin committee. Which means? That the result would have almost certainly been the same either way. It was an admin decision that gave us Ben Wyatt, who replaced Geoff Gallop in Victoria Park, and who is talented, smart and thoughtful. State Ex has given us… well, I’m not going name names, but I’m sure that if you think about some of our worst MPs and candidates, chances are they faced a State Ex ballot.
Not that Tagliaferri is a Ben Wyatt or a Melissa Parke. I would have preferred that McGinty do a bit more work in finding and grooming a good Labor person to run before resigning. But given the timing, the admin committee probably made the only decision it could; they chose a candidate with enough local support and recognition, a candidate who possibly could have won the seat as an independent, or helped deliver it to the Greens. At least this way he’s inside the tent. The problem with the party is that in a seat like Fremantle, so solidly Labor, its branches are so moribund, so out of the loop, that Tagliaferri was our best option. The party needs to get better at involving its members in more than just handing out how-to-vote cards; spending time having conversations with real branch members, rather than spending time inventing paper ones. It needs to do better at mentoring quality potential candidates rather than grooming policy-lite potential branch stackers. Even now, ALP members are getting desperate emails asking for help on election day. That there isn’t enough help in the seat itself is a sign of a party in trouble. This isn’t about the right to choose candidates. It’s so much bigger than that.
The Greens will continue with their cunning Lower House strategy to knock off the most progressive Labor MPs.
Brilliant strategy. Still can’t figure out how it advances a progressive agenda, though, having one less left-wing MP in the Government’s caucus. Or add appreciably the Greens’ balance-of-power bargaining strength where it really counts – the Senate.
Ginja – on what basis do you call Peter Tagliaferri progressive? I read recently (Fremantle Herald?) that when asked if had previously voted Liberal, Tagliaferri replied something like “Ummn, can’t remember”.
The Liberals aren’t running a candidate, but then they might not need to bother if Labor is running one for them.
Labor deserve to lose Freo and it might do them some good if they did. Then again, after incredibly losing the last state election, did they bother to ask ALP voters why they didn’t vote ALP? It looks like they’ve learned nothing. With choosing Tagliaferri as their candidate, it looks like all they want is to win the seat – whether he’s Labor or not. I’ll be voting Yes to Adele and No to daylight saving – how much more progressive can you be?
I’d hand out HTV cards for Taggers if it guaranteed stopping the Greens.
The Democrats died due lack of relevance syndrome. Hopefully the Greens will implode following the failure of Copenhagen and deferral of the ETS for the foreseeable future.
I still can’t get over the Tagliaferri preselection. They deserve to lose the seat if he’s the best candidate they can find.
“The Greens will continue with their cunning Lower House strategy to knock off the most progressive Labor MPs.”
Bzzzzt!
If Adele Carles wins in Fremantle it will be the electors of Fremantle who have “knocked off” so called progressive Labor MP’s (though how Tagliaferri is progressive, Labor or an MP I’m not quite sure).
“Ginja – on what basis do you call Peter Tagliaferri progressive?”
Not only has he previously run against Labor and directed preferences to the Liberals ahead of Labor, he was a member of a Liberal fund raising organisation.
Calling him “Labor” is difficult enough to swallow, let alone “progressive Labor”.
Russell (and any other no-voting Perthlings) – there’s a No Campaign launch happening tomorrow on the main entrance steps of Parliament House starting at 12:30pm.
Firstly, I’m immensely sick of hearing about daylight savings. It’s getting way too much airtime, particularly in the West – gotta make Troy Buswell happy, there’s that much less room for stories about what he’d like to do to the public service. I lean towards no, a leaning made quite firm by some of its more arrogant supporters… can’t see myself at a rally about it, though.
As for that by-election which I don’t get to vote in, I think Labor’s learnt its lesson from one of the less reported shocks of last year’s election… Kwinana. It’s an industrial seat which is rock-solid safe for Labor against both the Liberals and Greens, they capitalised on it by dropping in Roger Cook (now deputy leader, wtf?), and came within a whisker of losing to the local mayor who wasn’t pre-selected for Labor – she quit the party and ran as herself. I’ve never heard of Carol Adams, but obviously she’s popular down there, and it must’ve given some Labor folk a helluva fright. I reckon that’s part of the reason they were so keen on Tagliaferri, instead of another Left union guy or another Melissa Parke (what’s she done lately, by the way?). I think he’ll win by a few % – hard to tip against a guy who got over 60% in the last mayoral election, which I don’t think McGinty ever did in the seat. Adele Carles looks like she’d make a fine MP, though, and if she won that’d ensure Labor never treats Freo like a safe seat again. Either way, Freo probably wins.
Also, there’s some strange white shoe brigade stuff going on. Two independent candidates seem to be aping Labor and the Liberals respectively, with big ads in the local paper supporting the North Port Quay development (plenty of scans over at Poll Bludger). They may yet be interesting, but I can’t see anyone but Carmelo Zagami taking the bronze.
I hear the sound of many nails being simultaneously struck firmly on their heads. Coming correct as always, AW. I love the idea of a State Labor Party committee’s broad grassroots base.
My Google is terrible, terrible this morning. Do you have optional or compulsory preferential voting in WA? And my second question follows Razor’s comment—how hostile to preferencing the Greens are the WA Libs?
“My Google is terrible, terrible this morning.”
It could be a blockage. Symptoms have appeared already in China. You should seek immediate help. Now I know this smart young doctor, a Dr Conroy, down in Brimbank, who might just be able to help.
In the real world people need references from their last job to validate their work ethics and performance. Tag’s has been mayor of Freo for 2 terms and has worked closely with his councillors. Why has Labor not taken on board the opinions of these people?
It seems to me that when your co-workers take out 1/2page ads in the local newspapers and at their own costs then something very serious is being said. When Tagliaferri’s colleagues call him a liar to his face and accuse him of publicity stunts, dodging questions, arrogance, ego and opportunistic dealings surely we don’t need to read between the lines? When they publicly announce they are voting for Adele Carles you must realize what a big statement they are making.
When Tagliaferri says “God knows what I’ve voted for..” and “I can’t remember what I’ve voted for..” AND then follows up with “My eldest daughter voted Green’s last time..” What Tha?
Some people will vote Labor no matter what; just because they always have. Bart Simpson will get their votes. It’s time we stopped voting roboticly and looked at the people not ‘the club’. Who will do right by Fremantle. Who will listen and act on behalf of the people of Fremantle?
Tagliaferri hasn’t even bothered to show up at his last 2 council meetings and yet he will stay on as mayor until October and insists he can do both jobs in the one time frame. Ego? Or just the 2 paypackets?
Anna, from what you’ve written it seems like Fremantle is different in some crucial respects from other inner-city electorates where the contest is becoming Labor versus Green. As far as I know seats like Sydney and Melbourne in the Federal parliament continue to have fairly large and vigorous ALP branches with a depth of talent amongst their members (Sydney and Melbourne people can correct me if I’m wrong). What has befallen the ALP branches in Fremantle?
I have the impression that among young lefties interested in party politics the Greens are establishing themselves as the default party of choice, there will always be some who join the ALP but they will be the odd ones out. So much of labor’s inner urban activist base are the children of the Whitlam generation the grandchildren are heading to the Greens. Perhaps non-Anglo status counts against this trend in some cases however.
Geoff, when I was in Melbourne consuming more gin and tonic than was good for me at the Greens’ 2002 State election night party, an old friend who’s now a Victorian Greens strategist basically confirmed your point re non-Anglo-Celtic ethnic groupings. I’m not sure to what extent this may have change in the subsequent 7 years.
Liam – the ALP is preferencing Family First, are you surprised?
In W.A. we don’t have optional preferential voting, but ….. if you contact the WAEC and ask if you can vote 1,2,2,2,2,2 they will ask why you want to know, and who are you, and they’ll have to put you through to … etc etc. Finally you will discover that your vote will be counted on the basis that your intention to vote 1 for XX is clear, but your intentions after that aren’t clear, so no preferences can be distributed.
Most interesting research Russell. Sounds like closet optional. You should have told them you were Albert Langer, when you had finished, just to watch the meltdown.
I have no idea about the candidate – WA is like a whole different country. But the general rule holds true: Greens target the most left-wing Labor MPs. And for what gain? 1 or 2 Lower House seats – whoopppie!
And I actually think it may depress the Greens’ vote in Upper Houses at general elections, as voters in inner-city seats stick with Labor in both houses instead of ticket splitting.
But hey, if Greens want to waste the resources of the two left-of-centre parties in this country for bugger all gain, there’s no law against it…….though there probably should be!
But sorry, Russell, why does Labor deserve to lose Fremantle? Rudd’s led a pretty progressive government so far. You know you’re doing things right when right-wing commentators start complaining that Rudd Labor is more Labor than many voters expected.
“But sorry, Russell, why does Labor deserve to lose Fremantle? Rudd’s led a pretty progressive government so far.”
State by-election Ginga.
Ginja, whilst I’m as unenthusiastic as it’s possible for a Green to be about Green vs. ALP Left sororicide in the inner city, it’s salutary to remember that such contests are at least partly due to circumstances beyond our control, i.e. the use of single-member voting systems combined with the political-sociological fact that the precincts with the best Labor left MPs and branches also happen to be those with the highest percentages of Greenish voters. Again, whilst trying hard to avoid falling into self-righteousness (as many on both sides of this argument do), I would remind ALP Left people that we in the Greens advocate an electoral reform (i.e. proportional representation with multi-member constituencies) which would obviate this problem. Where do you stand on this issue?
“Greens target the most left-wing
Labor MPselectorates”And well might they.
Paul – don’t worry about Greens vs ALP Left in this election – there is no ALP Left in the contest!
Ginja – I could go on all day, but as an almost life-long ALP voter (now Greens) in a safe ALP seat, I don’t know anyone who thinks the ALP deserves to win. Apart from the general awfulness of the last ALP state government, Freo in particular got nothing out of the 8 year booming economy.
Freo is a major port and has the biggest collection of historical building in one place in W.A. yet it looks really shabby and neglected – it looks like it’s been in a depression for 10 years. Even the previous Liberal government did more for Freo: a new maritime museum and a new court complex. The ALP MP Jim McGinty will be remembered for his promises – in particular a new hospital. Every year the promises got better: the hospital would be bigger, more advanced, all private rooms etc. The years passed. One of Troy Buswell’s best lines just before the state election was his description of his visit to the site to check on progress: ‘what did I see Mr Speaker, bush, nothing but BUSH, Mr Speaker…’
Freo is just 7 miles down the highway from the Perth CBD but you should see the Fremantle Traffic Bridge (over the Swan River) which is well past the end of its life. Of course we were promised a new bridge, we had consultations etc etc. Do you think we have a new bridge?
Russell – the joys of living in a safe seat. McGinty was Min for Health and AG. He didn’t have time to scratch his bum let alone look after the electorate.
Razor – if you hire someone for, what was it, $600,000 per year, to run the Health Department, you shouldn’t need to run it yourself.
Vote Yes.
Please.
Russell, voting ‘no’ might be a lot of things, but progressive it ain’t. ‘Conservative’ is the word I’d use.
Russel – do you have any idea what a Minister actually does?
Russell, the last two terms of Labour here saw unprecedented infrastructure projects embarked upon, completed and new ones on the drawing board and ready to go from the desalination plant to major new rail and road completions and with good progress on hospitals like the Fiona Stanley complex. There were even bolder forward plans on the drawing board for urban re-structure in Perth and Fremantle. Little if any of this was promoted during the campaign.
My own sense of what happened when they lost the unlosable election against the then Opposition rabble was Carpenter’s naivete (born of his basic honesty) about how his genuine attempts to root out corruption in government generally and in his own party specifically were playing out in the electorate. The loss of the crucial Morley seat was a direct result of the unforeseen, which it should have been, bastardry of the disgraced D’Orazio. A more experienced politician than Carpenter would have anticipated that, to say nothing of his accepting ALP officials’ advice about going to an early election. He was a good Premier and is still well regarded in the community at large. Let’s hope he’ll make a comeback some time, sadder but wiser.
The current government is only one seat away from toppling back into chaos. If the Greens were to win Fremantle that further weakens the Labour opposition. So yes a vote for the Greens is a wasted vote.
BTW bumped into Adele Carles and a couple of her campaigners on South Beach yesterday, at the end of some-one-on one canvassing. They looked pretty tired, and not exactly happy. I don’t think their informal polling is that encouraging, no matter how hard the media here is working at building her up to make an interesting story. Nice young woman, but woolly and she really didn’t give me one good reason for voting Green. I might have talked longer but my dog Tacker looked pretty bored! He’s a good judge of character and would have stayed around if they’d made a fuss of him! In Freo patting the dog is as important as kissing the baby! Perhaps more so!
Liam – as Russell said, we technically have compulsory preferential, but exhausted preferences are allowed, although for some complicated reason one isn’t allowed to encourage it. You can’t leave more than one blank box, but you can put one one and make all the rest twos.
Paul – What has befallen the ALP branches in Fremantle?
It’s not that there aren’t plenty of members, active ones even. It’s that they’re left to their own devices most of the time; the factional warriors in the seat find it easier to create paper branches than to do the harder work of staying in contact and developing relationships with actual people with actual opinions and passions. So it’s more that there isn’t anyone from the area who’s had the mentoring necessary to campaign and act as a good MP. In the old days, MPs like McGinty would have worked to mentor and encourage people they thought suitable for taking their place.
Do you mean that Carps took the advice of others to go early? Not true, he called it against the advice of everyone he asked, which wasn’t many – even McGinty was caught off-guard by the announcement. Sadly, there were quite a few examples of Carps not understanding the party he lead, but refusing to listen to anyone who tried to point that out.
Patricia – why did so many ALP voters, in Freo, vote Greens at the last state election?
Patricia – Carpenter is not naive – he was trying to gazump the Opposition change of Leadership. Plain and simple – they changed leader he called the election the day after hoping for their to be no traction fro a new Liberal leader and hide behinde the Olympics for a fortnight. Too clever – not niave.
His arrogance is legend. His attempts to parachute is his dream team. His blatant disrespect for sitting Memebers and inabiltiy to manage the departure of retiring members.
He wasn’t there because he had the support of the party. he was there becasue he was a compromise Candidate. The Left couldn’t get McGinty up and the Right couldn’t get their person (Roberts i think) up – so Carps was the compromise.
The “Name Three things” ads were a masterstroke.
The Grills Royalty for regions was also succesful.
I was very happy to hand out HTV to beat the ALP in Morley. They’ll take it back – but how badly did they manage that one? When one now EX-MP was asked why he didn’t endorse the ALP Candidate for Morley his simple response was “They didn’t aske me too.”
Anna – if what you say is true about the corruption of our preferential voting then I am outraged. If you can’t fill in a preference voting slip from 1 to n then you don’t deserve a vote, no matter what your intention was.
their – there
Bring on the pedant.
What do you mean? To take the time to mark one, two, two, two, two says that you’ve thought clearly about what you want. I see no reason it shouldn’t deserve to be counted. I’m a supporter of preferential voting, but I don’t think one can argue that exhausting a vote is the sign of thoughtlessness or apathy.
You may have thought clearly but for it to be a valid vote it should be correctly numbered 1 to n.
Yes but the word correctly means correct according to the rules, which it is. I don’t understand why anyone would want to do that, but I have no problem with it being allowed.
Hardly anyone does it, though.
Anna – I’ll be doing it this Saturday, because I want to vote for the Greens, and not any other party.
Why bother Russell!!! If you vote 1 for the Greens, none of your preferences will count anyway because the Greens are certain to finish first or second on the primary votes. All that will happen if you use one of these exotic forms of voting that are only permitted through saving provisions is that the ballot paper will be pulled out of the count while its formality is determined by the Returning Officer. In fact, there’s a high probability it would be excluded on the night and only re-admitted on the check-count. If the Green preferences have to be counted in the Fremantle by-election, then Labor will have won in a landslide.
Too much of Australia’s voting is nonsense for my liking. The decision the make voting compulsory and instead focus on encouraging invalid votes is more irritating than I thought possible. Perhaps it’s growing up in NZ where they use the “intention of the voter” test – if the returning officer believes that the intention of the voter is clear and the scrutineers agree then the vote is valid. Which means that yes, mickey mouse always get a few votes. BFD. The main benefit is that small mistakes do not invalidate the vote. Secondary benefits like the disaffected getting their views recorded are not trivial either – popular disaffection is made visible and that is good in itself (or more accurately, the lack of popular disaffection expressed that way is made visible).
In Australia we seem inclined to the US model, or more generously the two party model – anything that favours the two major parties is encouraged, things that favour smaller parties are not.
In NZ we currently have the amusing situation that parties who are vehemently opposed to proportional representation and want to return to FPP are in a coalition government only because of MMP and have (finally) apparently worked out how to use the system to their advantage. I wish they hadn’t, but such is democracy.
I suppose that could be right …. Greens should come in second so my preference wouldn’t some how end up with the ALP. Oh well, number two can be the bloke who wants to nationalise the mining industry …
Watermelon.
Moz, in the states where optional preferential voting is used, the question of whether a voter’s intent is clear on the first preference is the sole basis for determining formality.
At the other end of the spectrum is Federal law, where if it applied in the Fremntle by-election would require the clear expression of preferences 1-10, with the 11th last preference being optional. Under Federal law, if you voted 1-9 then 99, 100, the vote would be informal. It must be the correct sequence to be formal. Which means instead of an election we end up with some elections becoming a test of voetr’s ability to transcribe lists of numbers. What a farce!
This was changed in the 1980s so that if the first preference was clear, and every other box had a number, then a saving provision in the electoral act allowed the vote to stay formal to the extent that its preferences were valid. Incomplete sequences remained informal. It was a saving provision, not a new form of formality, and the Act was modified to prevent this form of voting being advocated. When Albert Langer started to advocate this 1,2,2 etc form as a method of optional preferential voting, the Electoral Act gave the Electoral Commission little option but to prosecute him, which made the whole thing a farce. As the Parliament would not agree to optional preferential voting, the only option was to repeal the entire provision so the current ridiculous test applied.
WA adopted the same provision but has not repealed it as it does serve a purpose in saving votes with numbering errors. It saves any numbering error, so voting 1,2,2, etc its just the most perverse form of the savings provision in action.
I’d also say that some One Nation supporters by a mis-reading of the Electoral Act were of the view that if enough people voted 1,2,2, … thay could void the election.
Sorry Anna – I’m a true believer, not an insider! I did say it was my take on it! I guess we all have the story we want to believe, so perspectives do matter. But for the record I don’t think arrogance is a label the average punter would hang on Carps! I thought that when he fell on his sword and took responsibility for the early call he was doing the right thing by the troops, not necessarily telling it as it happened. As I say, my take on it!
What percentage of votes are informal (not fully and correctly numbered) in such a manner as that they require ‘help’ to be counted?
Either you can fill in 1 – 11 in the case of Fremanntle or your vote is informal. And if you bugger it up ask for another slip. It isn’t that hard is it?
Sadly, no
The problem with changing the party from the inside is that it’s almost impossible to achieve anything without being immersed in it first so that you understand how it works and what needs fixing. Because he was a journo before entering Parliament, Carps never got the inside experience and wouldn’t listen to those who did. The Catch-22 is that when you do have that inside experience first, like Alannah McTiernan, then people accuse you of being a hypocrite for getting the advantages of being an insider then biting the hand that fed you.
And is Antony Green really commenting on my post? How exciting!
Yes, no biggie – it only cost them government!
Antony Green and Poll Bludger too …..
Ginja – The Greens will continue with their cunning Lower House strategy to knock off the most progressive Labor MPs.
.
Interesting way of putting it. The more ‘progressive’ ALP members tend to the inner-city which is the Green heartland. It’s just the way it is. This statement reeks of the old ALP notion that everyone on the Left owes them something. Hint: It’s the other way around.
.
As for wasting resources. The ALP paid jackshit attention to the environment, so did the coalition. Now thanks in part to the Greens they both pay attention.
.
It does not matter what the personal beliefs of this or that MP are. It does not matter where or not s/he’s a nice person. What matters is what happens. And if the ALP want to bitch about the Greens getting their votes they have one place to put the blame.
Razor, not a huge number but enough to show up as a smaller category at WA elections than at Federal elections.
At the 2004 Federal election in WA, 25% of votes had only a first preferences, 19% had numbering errors and 5% had incomplete preferences, that is preferences plus some blanks. 23% were blank, 15% had just marks and scribbles, 9% used ticks and crosses.
At the 2005 WA election, there were 27% ‘1′ only votes, 31% blank, 12% scribbles and marks, 15% ticks and crosses, 4.6% with insufficient preferences and 6% missing a first preference. No sequencing errors, which made up nearly 1 in 5 of Federal informal votes.
We have 80 years of experience with compulsory preferential voting and we know that the informal rate goes up in direct proportion to the number of candidates. People make numbering errors. Scrutineers get votes knocked out as they argue over the difference between a 1 and a 7, a 6 and an 8, a 4 and a 9. We know from research that 80% of the votes with a valid first preference actually never require their preferences to be counted, yet we reject the vote because of some numbering error that doesn’t actually matter.
In Greenway at the 2004 Federal election, an election with 14 candidates, the informal vote passed 11%. At the end of the ballot paper, after expressing preferences for candidates representing a broad range of political views, voters still found themselves having to choose between Liberals for Forests, the Citizens Electoral Council and a candidate who has been contesting elections for three decades on the issue of spelling reform.
You have to ask sometimes whether Australian elections are being run to ask voters who they want to run the country, or are they designed to force voters to partake in a farcical test of transcription ability on the pain of being fined?
And by the way, the ‘1′ only votes almost disappear at by-elections. They are largely induced at general elections by the use of the Senate and Legislative Council ballot papers where more than 95% of voters mark the ballot with a single ‘1′.
Antony – absolute priveldge to be engaging with you.
I wasn’t aware there are so many who either can’t or don’t follow simple instructions.
I like the Senate/legislative Council above the line system.
Perhaps they should bring that system in for house of Reps/Assembly voting.
Cheers
WB @ 46 That was the idea.
Absolutely not Razor. They did try that in WA as I explain here http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/07/ticket-voting-f.html
The simple answer is optional preferential voting. No doubt lower house ticket voting would be justified on the basis of cutting informal votes, but its real purpose would be to allow parties to get control of preferences and direct them as they wish, ignoring the will of voters.
George Speight’s coup in Fiji in 2000 was indirectly caused by the operation of ticket voting, where the election of an ethnic Fijian Indian government had come about by the operation of centrally arranged preference deals at odds with the first preference votes cast by voters.
And why should you be surprised that people can’t follow instructions? Why do you think Labor’s how to vote in Fremantle tries to run straight lines of preferences? Why did the Greens run their ticket straight down the ballot paper in the Mayo by-election which put One Nation ahead of the Liberals? The answer is you get less transcription errors by voters from simple how-to-vote numbering sequences. Also, ask a shop owner how many goods are returned by purchasers who tried to operate them without first reading the instructions.
Some people think they are being funny numbering a ballot paper 1,2,3,99,100. The intent is clear. In WA it would count. Federally it would be informal, something I think is stupid.
Anthony, I respect your knowledge and experience but I find it hard not to read #53 on ticket voting as extremely cynical. I fear that you are correct, however, as it matches my impressions.
Which reminds me, I need to join the Victorian version of my party of choice now that I’ve moved.
OPV v ticket voting, forget George Speight, try Steve Fielding.
The Labor Right has been pointedly dismissive of progressive policies for years, comprehensively marginalising the party’s left wing, but at the same time expecting that progressive voters will nonetheless reliably turn out to support whoever the bureaucracy nominates this time. As a progressive voter, I cannot seperate Rudd and Turnbull; Rudd is better on some issues that matter to me, and Turnbull is better on others. That’s a pretty sad situation for Labor.
This time, Labor put up a candidate who had done a pretty lousy job as mayor, alienated fairly large swathes of his constituents in favour of chasing business support at all costs, and was well to the right of the majority of his constituents. The Greens put up a passionate and talented activist who actually gives a damn about her community, has views in line with that community, and stands to actually do a decent job representing the people of Fremantle. It’s hardly a surprise that people are opting for the latter, as much as Labor feel entitled to their rotten borough.
As a progressive, I’d much rather a lone Green in a very tightly divided lower house, with the integrity to actually stand up for progressive values and the ability to use her vote to achieve that, rather than another Labor drone who’s there to make up the numbers and retire on a nice pension.
Tagliaferri’s new Clothes:
…This cloth, they tell him, is invisible to anyone who was either stupid or unfit for his position. The Emperor cannot see the (non-existent) cloth, but pretends that he can for fear of appearing stupid; his ministers do the same. When the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they dress him in mime. The Emperor then goes on a procession through the capital showing off his new “clothes”. During the course of the procession, a small child cries out, “But he has nothing on!” The crowd realizes the child is telling the truth. The Emperor, however, holds his head high and continues the procession.
“As a progressive voter, I cannot seperate Rudd and Turnbull; Rudd is better on some issues that matter to me, and Turnbull is better on others.”
Rebecca, maybe I’ve missed something, but what in gods name has Mal offered since he took over that is in any way progressive? Sure, he had that reputation but he has proved nothing but a mouthpiece for the hard right in my opinion. Rudd is ,at least, a mixed bag. Though I share your dislike for Labor right and wish they would join with their Liberal brothers in an appropriate marriage of like minds.
joe2 – Turnbull is about as “hard” right as a cream bun is “hard”. He is the classic Doctors Wives small l Liberal.
What has he said or done to show that since he took over Razor?
Malcolm is the wife of a doctor?
I think it’s more worthwhile to look at the positions he took before becoming leader. Since he has become leader he has had to do the mental and philosophical splits to straddle the two wings of his party.
Malcolm is the wife of a doctor?
.
Well not really. It’s just a fantasy of his. It gets fulfilled at Madame Roussard’s Maison de la Rumpé Poompé every second Tuesday afternoon at 2.45.
.
$3000 per/h. Only the best for Turnbull.
“I think it’s more worthwhile to look at the positions he took before becoming leader.”
In other words….
It is more important what Turnbull has been rather than what he is now?
The logic of that suggestion escapes me completely thewetmale.
I think it’s more worthwhile to look at the positions he took before becoming leader
.
I’ll have you know that Madame Roussard’s is very good about keeping their clientelle’s confidentiality and that the positions whereof you speak are not your business.
.
Oh? Policy positions. Sorry my mistake.
“The logic of that suggestion escapes me completely thewetmale.”
That’s because there isn’t any. Turnbull doesn’t have positions, just pronouncements from on high.
Adrien @ 62 & 64, the cat’s out of the bag on that one
63 & 65, My comment was more about joe2 @ 60 than any spectacular policy positions Malcontent once advocated for. I would wager that he has been forced into many positions by
Madame Roussardthe likes of Nick Minchin and the overshadow that he wouldn’t support if he had it his way as much as Howard.However i would qualify that by saying that there isn’t much clear evidence of this (see adrian @ 65.) Also his previous statements when he was environment minister and shadow treasurer are distorted by his need to position himself against Howard, Costello and Nelson. Remember that Costello often incompetently tried to position himself as a moderate to the dry martini that was Howard. Yet he was also prepared to front up to the catch the fire types.
Bottom line, i would agree with Razor @ 59 that Malcolm lies naturally with the moderates even if there isn’t a whole lot of evidence.
joe2 @ 58
I’m beginning to feel that the best thing Rudd will have done at the end of his career is to guarantee the ousting of Howard. He’s a pretty bland mixed bag. It could be worse but it could be a hellavalot better.
We will have you know that Mr Turnbull has not been forced into any positions unless he requested such specifically. Mr Minchin’s positions are another matter. Mr Turnbull goes to the Doctor’s Wife Room. Mr. Minchin gets locked in the stocks with all the sheep and Barnaby Joyce who works here part time.
.
Mr Rudd of course favours the House of Leather and Pain’s Departure Lounge Room. And we are adding the Ginsberg Muddy Feet Woodstock Tent Scenario for Bob Brown.
.
Hubbah hubbah.
Adrian, I owe the ALP something. Union members like could have been locked up had Rudd not won and Work Choices not been done away with.
Paul Norton, I’m strongly against proportional representation. While proportional representation would help parties on the left, like the Greens, it would also make things a lot easier for the far-right (as happened in Austria). A million votes for One Nation in a Qld state election not that long ago, remember.
I’m pretty sure Labor will hold onto the seat, but is there no impressing people here? Look at all the funding for rail projects Rudd announced yesterday (I can only think of one rail project Howard funded). Or the spending on the environment. The last of the non-combat troops are coming home. Paid maternity leave is in the pipeline. Some of the more egregious items of Howard’s upper-class welfare are being clawed back. Big increases to uni funding. Huge school buildings public works. Rudd’s leading the most progressive Labor Government I’ve ever known.
Do you people not remember how bad the Howard years were?
Only if you want to judge his worth as a potential friend. As a potential leader it’s surely more useful to judge him by what he’s willing and capable of doing. It’s like people who looked more kindly on the Bushes when they learned that their wives were pro-choice. Who the hell cares if they’re helping ban abortion?
Once again, state election, not federal.
Rudd’s leading the most progressive Labor Government I’ve ever known.
.
Lemme guess. You were born sometime after ‘75 right?
P.S. I don’t mean to sound like a propaganist for the ALP, but someone’s gotta add a bit of proportion to the more rabid anti-Labor comments.
I’d rather belong to a broad coalition that makes compromises but carries out many of the left’s priorities than have a Liberal Goverment. Turnbull leads a party that is so reactionary that they can only be described as a far-right party.
I like how we’re talking about Turnbull, Rudd and Whitlam on a topic about the State by-election in Fremantle.
I almost forgot: a program to help seriously disadvantaged people – Aboriginals in particular – get to uni.
Ginja, being pro-democracy only when you’re sure that your side will win is a very poor position. The fact that proportional representation means that people you don’t like get elected too is a feature, not a defect. The problem is when peoples’ votes are not counted, for whatever reason.
I don’t care whether you’re refused a say because you’re born in the wrong place, have the wrong skin colour, are poor, a convict, illiterate, or because you support the wrong political party, I still think it’s undemocratic. Spreading the franchise as widely as possible and trying to accurately represent the best interests of the voters is my goal for any democracy. The USA slogan “no taxation without representation” remains an aspirational goal there, but I agree with the goal [1].
PR works better than other systems, even the limited forms used in Germany, New Zealand and Israel. A big part of that success is that it leads to coalition governments, who by their nature have to be more consultative and negotiate to get legislation through. Surely after Howard’s control of the senate here that seems like a sensible preference?
[1] specifically, that taxes cannot legitimately be levied on those who cannot vote.
“I’m strongly against proportional representation …. A million votes for One Nation in a Qld state election not that long ago, remember.”
Ginja, so if you yourself say had a point of view, formed a party, stood at an election, and got a million votes, we should have a system that denies you any representation in parliament because we disagree with you? That sounds like Algeria, not Australia.
Went for a haircut today (unofficial polling), the barber, an Italian, confirmed that Freo’s large Italian population will all be voting for Tagliaferri. ALP MP Mark McGowan’s “ethnic branch stackers” remark obviously forgotten …..
Ginja, I’m not too strict on a bit of thread-drift, but please keep in mind that this is a thread about WA state Labor. Please don’t just change the topic because it’s something that doesn’t interest you.
Anna – do you think the voters have forgiven the ALP yet? When I moved to the Greens (still a true believer, like Patricia, but in the principles, not the Party) my preference vote went to the ALP. When I didn’t give them my preference vote at the last state election I thought I was making a probably temporary protest. But now, I feel free to never vote for them again, and I really can’t stand them.
‘Them’ meaning the ministers in the last government. But there are some new good ALP MPs. My hope for the WA ALP is that in 12 months time a complete reshuffle will see every previous ALP minister retreat to the backbench, and the new talent take on the shadow minister roles. I can’t see the ALP doing well at the next state election with those tired old faces being presented once again. I suppose a ‘behind the scenes’ renovation of the party is even more necessary.
To be honest, I think the WA Labor govt was quite good, government-wise. It’s the behind-the-scenes stuff that hurt them. Shithouse campaigning, factional crap getting too much publicity, Carps’ poor decision in overturning the Burke ban and letting Marlborough onto the front bench.
And don’t forget the election was really close. To me, that said that people weren’t happy to give either side the gig. People in general are sick of the corruption, the policy-free suits…
The anger at the ALP is coming from members and former members of the party; I don’t think it’s in the wider community as much, which is why it’s more urgent in the safe seats.
The election was so close, but it shouldn’t have been, with a booming economy and an opposition in complete disarray. But the general public seems not much interested in ‘parties’ but rather in particular issues drummed up by The West Australian.
I think the most damaging point the Liberals raised in the campaign was that the ALP had “wasted the boom”. For me it was the spin and the bullying of critics. Their handling of indigenous affairs was probably the straw that broke the camel’s back. I wonder if there’s anything at all left in the state ALP that could inspire young people to support them.
I believe that had Carps waited until February he would still be Premier.
I agree – but I don’t think he deserved to be.
Maybe, but that was in response to the forgiveness question – I don’t think the voters need to ‘forgive’, because they don’t care enough to be angry. That’s just us!
Anna, what are you, the comment police? I was making a larger point about inner-city seats – can’t see how it doesn’t apply to Fremantle. But you touch on an interesting point – much of the motivation for many Green members is to get back at the ALP.
Russell and Moz, spare me the motherhood statements about democracy. I’m pretty sure we live in a democracy as it is. I happen to believe preferential voting in the best system – it allows minority groups to influence major parties while not being an ineffective mess that allows extremist parties to enter government. Simply because Hansonites have to have their views filtered through the Libs and the Greens through Labor doesn’t mean we don’t have a democracy. In fact, I’d call that the essence of democracy. Coalition-buiding under proportional systems can allow small parties to have an influence out of all proportion to their voting strength.
I belong to the Left. I’ll plead guilty to not wanting Hansonites anywhere near the levers of power. If I was an Algerian, I’m sure I’d feel the same way about Islamic extremists. And if I lived in the Weimar Republic….
“much of the motivation for many Green members is to get back at the ALP.”
Says who?
I see why some people are getting cranky at me. I thought we were talking about a federal vacancy. I’d forgotten Carmen called it quits in ‘07. Who took her seat, Melissa somebody? My apologies Anna.
Anyway, all the other stuff holds true. But who cares about a state by-election years out from a general election? It just confuses the rest of us on the mainland. But you should vote state Labor anyway – Kev would want it that way.
I already have my $900
Melissa Parke is the federal Freo MP. If you check out the link at the end of my post, you’ll see the current state candidate bitching about the undemocratic nature of her admin preselection…
Ginja: The things you listed are drops in the bucket. Rudd stomped on civil unions, has kept in place the NT intervention, is trying to put in place an internet censorship scheme that even Howard didn’t dare to do, is doing very little about winding back WorkChoices, and keeps trying to whip up a moral panic about young women drinking. Tiny increases in spending on a few vaguely left issues doesn’t change the fact that we’d have a more progressive government if Ted Baillieu went into federal politics and became Prime Minister.
It’s not much different at a state level here; the ALP is ridiculously pro-business, and keeps preselecting candidates that suck; the latter being a key factor in them getting trounced in the general election, and hopefully will follow suit in the by-election.
Like I asked way back when… has Melissa Parke done anything notable since she got her safe seat? I heard she was great, I heard she used to be a lawyer with the United Nations, and I’ve heard not much since the election. Federal Labor in WA seems to be Stephen Smith and tumbleweed – not suprising considering there’s only four MPs and the other three were elected in 2007, but Parke was sold as someone who was worth being there.
As for state stuff: here’s a thought. Janet Woollard has recently been showing off her independence by voting against the govt (local councils bill, last week). She was elected as ‘Liberals for Forests’, so basically a green tory. And Alfred Cove is right next door to Freo. If Carles gets up, it’d be interesting to see if the pair of them form a mini-green bloc, and what they do there – Carles would technically hold the balance of power, so it’s something to think about. Woollard got a fair sized swing against her at the election facing a no-name Lib instead of a hated ex-Court govt minister (Doug Shave / Graham Kierath), so she’d want something to differentiate herself from the Libs.
Also, there’s a few other Greens entering state parliament next week-ish: the new upper house comes into effect. Lib/Nat majority, and four Greens. Dee Margetts has been there forever, Lynn McLaren and Robin Chapple are coming back after a term out (Chapple this time getting up without help from One Nation preferences in the bush), and Alison Xamon is brand new in East Metropolitan. I voted for her when I lived in sunny Armadale / Cloverdale, so I’ll be watching her with interest – it’s nice having my candidate get up for a change.
Rebecca, I can only suggest you read newspapers more often. The idea that a Liberal Government – any Liberal Government – is more progressive than the ALP is just plain fruity. After Howard, I honestly don’t know anyone can believe this tweedledum-tweedledee nonsense.
On Melissa Parke, she is a bankbencher who’s only been in Parliament a year and a half. Cut the woman a bit of slack.
Anyway, the thing I’d be looking for with state Labor is are they putting concrete measures in place to make sure Burke-type scandals never happen again.
How would Carles hold the balance of power? It would be Carles and Woollard. Dee Margetts has been long gone. There’s not only Stephen Smith – there’s also Immigration minister Chris Evans.
Two brochures in the letterbox yesterday from both Greens and ALP, and one from the independent Lib. The Greens were best – one was general, the other specific to my area. Both ALP were general cliches.
Speaking of Melissa Parke …. there was a pic of her in the local paper with candidate Tagliaferri and Greg Combet. Greg apparently just dropped in to admire Tags’ solar panels. I won’t wipe Combet from my good books because he was fantastic at the ACTU, but I hope he said to Parke afterwards “I feel so used”.
BTW have those of you nearer to the centre of power been suitably impressed with WA’s number one ALP Senator (it’s not Immigration Minister Chris Evans). That’s Louise Pratt. I haven’t seen or heard a word. Is she there?
Jesus Russell, the Greens are using paper? What about the trees?
Razor – the ALP ones are disposable, but Adele’s brochures and photogenic family are so attractive you could leave them on your fridge door for years.
Ahh, whoops – Giz Watson, not Dee Margetts. Dunno how that one got through.
Alan Carpenter AND Eric Ripper have been door knocking in traditional Labor areas of Fremantle (recently turned Green) – when was the last time we had an ex-Premier and current opposition leader door knocking?
“when was the last time we had an ex-Premier and current opposition leader door knocking?”
Well, we’ve had an ex-Treasurer door knocking big business for about 18 months now. Still no bites, apparently.
I’m assuming Carpenter & Ripper are Doorknocking in the Hamilton Hill part of the electorate which borders with Carpenter’s own Willagee seat.
Despite the Election Loss, Carps still had a reasonable high personal approval rate which may be more suited to working class Hamilton Hill, compared to aspirational Mindarie.
“I’m assuming Carpenter & Ripper are Doorknocking in the Hamilton Hill part of the electorate which borders with Carpenter’s own Willagee seat.”
No, they have been seen in Fremantle proper (near the hospital and fishing boat harbor area). This area was traditional Labor but many of the voters have been disgusted by McGinty high highhandedly thrusting Tagliaferri (who only joined the Labor party 30 minutes before being nominated) onto them over more deserving Labor party members.
[This area was traditional Labor but many of the voters have been disgusted by McGinty high highhandedly thrusting Tagliaferri (who only joined the Labor party 30 minutes before being nominated) onto them over more deserving Labor party members.]
He may have formally only joined the Party when he did, but what’s to say he hasn’t always been sympathetic to Labor Values ?
And for those Labor people who are acting like spoilt children – remember the 2008 State Election – your antics got us 4 Years of Colin Barnett and his Buffonery, don’t coming crying to the Party when the Libs screw you over.
When Fank Calbrese says “He may have formally only joined the Party when he did, but what’s to say he hasn’t always been sympathetic to Labor Values ?” he must surely be joking because Tagliaferri’s “traditional” treatment of his employees leads one to conclude that he (Tagliaferri) and Labor Values are not even “nodding acquantences”.
Also as the Poll Bludger http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/09/fremantle-by-election-may-16-episode-two/ says “until recently they had the AG and Health Minister and the highest profile member of the State Government as their member and got bugger all for it.
Why would the electorate suddenly be thinking a lowly back bencher in OPPOSITION is going to deliver where McGinty couldn’t?”
When it’s the local Mayor – lots
Peter has Brand Recognition, Adele doesn’t
The Greens are all excited cos they won one Booth – Rottnest Island Primary School – They must’ve really campaigned for the quokka vote.
When times are tough The Electorate want a MAJOR Party – not some bunch of radicals who would risk people’s jobs like The Greens would -especially in WORKING Class Fremantle.
And The Liberal Voters would rather elect a Labor Person with Liberal sympathies as opposed to a radical Greenie (despite the Professional Lawyer look she is portraying.
And don’t write off the Italian Vote – as I sdaid on Poll Bludger, Tags has family history onside with Interfoods and The Italian Club, those two factors alone will help Tagliaferri.
This’d make sense, but nothing to do with good ol’ working-class Labor folk. Hamilton Hill, Hilton and Coolbellup were almost as good for the Greens as Freo booths… particularly Hilton, where the Greens got 28.3% to Libs 19.7%. By my rough calcs, that would’ve been marginal ALP (2.8% vs Grn), similar to White Gum Valley booth in Freo (ALP>40%, Grn>20%, Lib<20%). Greens also cracked 20% at East Hami Hill Primary. I’m not surprised… that region’s full of Murdoch uni students of the green / left wing persuasion. Tell ya what, if a redistribution ever throws up a seat containing what’s now southern Willagee and northern Cockburn, there may be a second ALP vs Grn marginal waiting to appear.
I did a whole lot of those rough calcs (2pp margins between ALP and Lib/Grn) for all the Freo booths, by the way… I can’t be bothered digging them up right now (it’s late, I’m off to bed soon), but I posted them at Ben Raue’s blog a few months ago. Lots of interesting variation. It ain’t just Rotto, Frank – from memory the Greens won a couple of mainland booths with margins above 5%. I’ll find that stuff and post it tomorrow.
Bloody Bob Maumill – Brian Burke’s good friend and Broadcaster who went to town on 6PR with the ALP
But in 2008, people had a reason to vote against Labor – to give thwem a scare, but now with Barnett & co behind the wheel and the release of increased Power & Water, they must now be regrettingtheir little “Dance with the Devil” and will realise that voting for Labor will ensure that Barnett can be removed with the resignation ONE MP – John Bowler,and if there are more explosive revelations about HIS involvement with the CCC and Burkie, then Barnett’s hold on power is VERY Tenuous indeed.
Will the lone Green side with Labor to form Minority Government ? THAT is the question electors will be thinking.
I’m not sure folk down in Hilton are huge Bob Maumill listeners, eh… seems more East Freo to me. Beaconsfield / Hilton / Hami Hill is largely bogan hell… it’s surprising the Greens got such a high vote there. I’ve lived in both Beaconsfield (Tagliaferri’s patch) and Coolbellup, and, well, it ain’t Freo. (Especially Beaconsfield, which is basically Kelmscott with a sea breeze.) Demographically it can’t be that different to suburbs further south, so I guess it must be uni students and similar who swing it.
You’re right about people wanting to give Labor a scare last year, but that applies more to other suburbs – explains things like the Greens getting in the mid-teens in weird places like Girrawheen or Nollamara, and independents doing well in seats including Kwinana and Carine. There’s probably something different going on in Freo and areas south-east – just a ‘whack Labor’ effect doesn’t explain why, in what was already an outstanding election in Perth for the Greens, Carles got so much more of the vote than in any other seat. The anti-development thing is one of them, and that’s Adele Carles’ profile for ya – she’s been around for a while too. (There’s a longer post waiting to be typed for where I say ‘anti-development thing’, but that’s for tomorrow.)
Also, voters in Freo who actually think about the effect of their vote on parliament would realise Labor winning wouldn’t increase their numbers in the lower house – Labor need a by-election in a couple of marginal Liberal seats for that. Southern River, Morley, Wanneroo etc (the smokey being Kalgoorlie), but not Freo.
And before I go to bed (night shift and insomnia, not a great combination), here’s a link to the Ben Raue post where I did a bit of number crunching in comments. I explain fully what I did over there; here’s the 2pp margins I worked out using back-of-envelope parameters:
Richmond Primary School: Lib 5.0 v ALP
Anglican Church Hall: ALP 3.2 v Lib
Palmyra Primary School: ALP 10.7 v Lib
Phoenix Primary School: ALP 15.0 v Lib
Winterfold Primary School: ALP 16.3 v Lib
White Gum Valley Primary School: ALP 2.4 v Grn
Beaconsfield Primary School: Grn 5.7 v ALP
East Fremantle Primary School: Grn 5.9 v ALP
Fremantle Town Hall: Grn 6.3 v ALP
Rottnest Island Picture Hall: Grn 8.2 v ALP (small booth)
Fremantle Primary School: Grn 8.4 v ALP
The spacing there is to roughly separate the electorate into its three main bits: posh riverside, bogan dust, and Freo’s inner suburbs.
“And for those Labor people who are acting like spoilt children – remember the 2008 State Election – your antics got us 4 Years of Colin Barnett”
Antics? It takes a lot of thought to change the voting habits of a lifetime. A lot more thought than the ‘rusted on’ voter ever gives to his vote.
Colin Barnett has been, so far, a very pleasant surprise. Give credit where it’s due – I certainly didn’t expect it, I just wanted to kick out a rotten government. It seems to me a much cleaner government than the previous ALP one. Barnett knows so much more about the mining industry and state development than anyone else in Parliament it’s not funny. Troy Buswell as treasurer appears to have a much better grasp of his portfolio than Ripper had – I think the ALP might have someone to match him, but she’s on the backbench.
As everyone knows Frank, electricity prices have to rise substantially because of the ALP gimmick of keeping them low (and bankrupting the generator) for political reasons. That was just bad ALP management. As it says in today’s West Australian the increases “bring WA electricity prices in line with the true cost of producing power. They have not risen in more than a decade and are kept artificially low by a State Government requirement that Verve sell most of its power to retailer Synergy at below cost”
Russell,
You will change your tune once the 3% public sector cuts kick in – and people on low incomes are NOT going to like a hike in their electricity bill.
That policy was actually started under the PREVIOUS Liberal Government in 1999.
Frank,
The 3% cuts were the policy of the ALP, before they were thrown out.
Do you honestly think the ALP government should have, year after year after year, kept the price of electricity down – below the cost of producing it?
You don’t get it, it was BARNETT as Energy Minister who introduced it – Labor continued the policy.
It was one thing to keep prices down for a year or two, and another to keep them down for a further 8 years when the generator was running at a huge loss, and everyone was saying it was irresponsible.
Russell – the ALP came into power on the promise to “Fix the Health System”. Eight years on and they still had the same issues.
When you’ve got the militant AMA trying their hardest to sabotage any reforms (Richard Court is on record saying they are more militant than the CFMEU) of course they had the same issues.
They promised to fix the health system, more than once.
See my last post – the AMA kicked up a stink EVERY time McGinty, and Kucera before him TRIED to improve the system – and Mark Olson and his turncoat ANF who campaigned for the Libs in 2005 didn’t help either.
Is anyone’s health system fixed, anywhere?
Nlope, and Richard Court didn’t fix it when the Libs were last in Govt – and don’t expect Kim Hames to wave the magic wand – the AMA will fight tooth and nail to preserve their little patch – they make Kevin Reynolds and the CFMEU look like Mother Theresa.
Tagliaferri on Utube the night before the elections
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahvltmsLxHA
Hmmn, the latest Fremantle Herald has arrived. Headed “Cliffhanger” the lead article starts “Fremantle’s days as a safe Labor seat are over, whomever wins today’s by-election says Notre Dame politics lecturer Martin Drum”. Fourteen paragraphs later it concludes “Dr Drum said ……”
It was all Dr Drum who, we learn in the middle of the article “was an advisor to former premiers Geoff Gallop and Alan Carpenter”. At least one other perspective might have been a a good idea.
Turn over to page two and the top article is headlined “Two heart attacks for mayor’s mum: ‘Mum was pushing me out the door saying I have things to do’. “Peter Tagliaferri … at the bedside of his 84-year-old mother …. she was in intensive care, her son by her side …..”
I suppose you prefer the “unbiased” views of Peter Van Onsolen – who was an Adviser to Tony Abbott. Do you think they approached Dr Drum because he is a lecturer with an Educational instituion in the electorate ?
Mr Pot, Meet Mr Kettle.
I don’t object to them using a source with a particular affiliation, just that another source as well would have made a better balanced report, don’t you think?
Remember that Carles polled 5.8 per cent off her own bat as an independent in 2005. If you combine the Carles and Greens votes from 2005, the increase from 2005 to 2008 was 4.8 per cent, compared with 4.3 per cent statewide. There’s probably still something in what you’re saying though.
Be cool if people in Fremantle posted up what sort of stuff was going on at polling booths etc.
There’ll be no shortage of that at PB, Oz. By the way, ABC TV reported this evening that Labor’s polling has them three points in front.
Yeah, I think I told you about that on Pollbludger.
I’m thinking about a more general thing, actually. I just got home and can’t be bothered to type heaps, but recent-ish Green / independent candidates of note include Carles, Andrew Sullivan, Robyn Scherr, and an independent candidate whose name I forget who got several % in Cockburn last election and probably sucked that off the Greens (who would’ve got 20% against Fran Logan otherwise). The anti-development protesting at South Beach or Port Coogee has been on for a while now, and it’s probably a major cause of Carles doing so well last time – everybody took their eye off that ball. They already had a bit of a win – Stephen Lee, apparently corrupt, ain’t the mayor of Cockburn any more. It’s getting hard to find political folk who aren’t linked to Brian Burke these days. 
Oh dear – so you did! Speaking of which, if I may allow myself a plug, tune into PB today for all your Fremantle by-election needs.
Oz – instead of going up to the East Fremantle school, where you get to queue with a better sort of person, I went down to the [People's Republic of] Palmyra school, and it was a bit strange because it was clearly an ALP / Greens contest: plenty of both in their coloured t-shirts handing out stuff. Actually saw Freo federal MP Melissa Parke for the first time, so she isn’t just a media construct.
The Socialist Alliance had an attractive piece of corflute out, and they got my preference vote because the candidate is young and has a nice smile. A really beautiful, blue-skied, Perth day – so quite a nice atmosphere with the school P&C selling plants and burgers etc. A lot of old people in Palmyra, I suspect a determined NO verdict on daylight saving.
Thanks for going into bat for me Frank, but I dont object to Russell’s comments. I made a point of mentioning my background to the Herald when talking to them and I was pleased they published it as it helps with the context. Often media outlets have spatial constraints and are unable to include such detail. My comments were entirely reasonable and fair as they related to the byelection. It is a matter for the Herald as to who they choose to see comment from.
I’ve been enjoying reading the healthy debate on this and the pollbludger’s site.
9:50pm EST 16/5
TAGLIAFERRI – ALP 3767 40.04%
CARLES – GRN 3886 41.31%
Count Progress: 41.72%
Some are calling Freemantle to the Greens.
Make that “everyone”, Peter.
And I can hear Freo partying. Amazing result, amazing times. To see a Prime Mnister lose his seat, and then the ALP lose Fremantle! Are we seeing what amounts to the beginning of a split in the ALP, with a drift of progressive voters leaving the ALP for the Greens?
The knives will be out for Opposition Leader Eric Ripper, but that isn’t the answer. The ALP lost beacuse of the record of the last ALP state government (all ex-ministers stand up and take a bow), and in particular the ex-local MP Jim McGinty. I didn’t read any accounts of Jim campaigning out there for Tagliaferri. And because the Greens had an intelligent, passionate, principled candidate who had a record of local activism.
It will be fantastic to have Adele in the parliament rather than Tagliaferri, plus it will give the Greens party status which means more resources for them. It’s a brilliant result for W.A. No to daylight saving, and leading the country in progressive politics!
Congratulations to the Greens.
WTF? to the ALP.
Actually the ALP’s primary vote was the same as the State Election with Tagliaferri gaining a 0.3% swing .
The Greens Vote being so high is because there was no liberal Running, so they all voted Green.
to quote Antony Green:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2009/fremantle/
So it would’ve been a more interesting result had the Libs run a candidate.
When times are tough The Electorate want a MAJOR Party – not some bunch of radicals who would risk people’s jobs like The Greens would -especially in WORKING Class Fremantle.
Congratulations to the voters of Freemantle for rejecting this kind of narrow mentality; and congratulations to the Greens.
Frank, I’d've been surprised if the Labor vote had gone down a heap at the by-election. It already had its collapse at the 2008 election.
Actually, while Labor’s vote was similar to that in 2007, with no Liberal candidate running some Liberal voters would have gone to Labor rather than the Greens. But obviously more Liberal voters went to Carles.
Some Labor voters disappointed with Labor on issues such as CPRS and more local concerns would have also gone to the Greens.
It is interesting that these shifts appear to have cancelled each other out. A detailed analysis of the ballot count would shed some more light on this.
and the icing on the cake is that the WA Greens get Party Status, woohoo.
Yes, the Greens profile should lift considerably- last week we had two Greens in the upper house. With Adele and the new members of the LC coming in we’ll have 4 Greens in the LC and one in the Assembly. Each of them get to employ a couple of staff, and now party status will give them even more staff.
I’m not sure the Freo result could happen elsewhere because local factors were so strong: since the infamous “W.A. Inc” years the ALP in W.A. has been the party of sleaze and nastiness. The government that was thrown out last year lost more than one minister thanks to our Corruption and Crime Commission. Carpenter can be given credit for trying to bring in a whole bunch of new candidates. I don’t get the impression the the ALP in Queensland, or S.A. or Victoria is quite so tarnished and would have alienated so many of their supporters.
The other factor is how much the ex-local member was disliked, and that Freo has long been the home of the ‘alternative’ and progressive community in Perth. I can’t see the Greens winnning any other lower house seat in Perth.
Anyway, after so many bleak years, W.A. has 4 Greens in the Council, one in the Assembly, and 2 Greens Senators in Canberra. Amazing.
Anna, what are your thoughts of the impact on the ALP of losing Freo ?
Great result for the Greens – there’s no doubting its an historic win, to get the largest plurality.
AS endorsing various comments above: YES if we had a sensible electoral system like MMP (which balances representation with proportionality) or PR based on larger mufti-member constituencies then *both* Tanner and Adam Bandt or [insert any ALP left inner city MP and Green] would be reps. Time’s coming when the ALP left (if not the party as a whole) needs to realise single member districts wont gurantee a 2=party cartel any longer – and they will miss out sometimes, as has happened here.
And YES, ticket voting = you choose which HACK decides how your vote. Its indefensible in a democracy.
Freo. Way to go.
But what if the public don’t want to be represented by Islamic religious scholars? Sorry, but I somehow think you haven’t thought this one through.
Fairly certain, William Bowe, that what they’d do in that case would be to not vote for said Islamic religious scholars. (Can’t vouch for the ALP’s brainiac ticket engineers, but.)
Cat escapes bag!
(I mentioned the Mufti once; but I think I got away with it…)
Socialist Alliance welcomes historic Greens win in Fremantle
http://socialistallianceperth.blogspot.com/2009/05/socialist-alliance-welcomes-historic.html
But the resultant By-election caused by that event (Norm Marlborough) actually resulted in a swing TO Labor rather than the other way around.
Oh and Antony Green has said that Fremantle has been soft Labor since McGinty was elected the first time.
Wasn’t only one Frank, remember John Bowler (I’m sure you do, as he now votes with the Libs), Shelley Archer …..
Former ALP Premier Peter Dowding commented that the result was due to the contempt the party machine has displayed for ordinary members/voters. I think that’s about right.
Yes, I know about the other two, I was only commenting on the Peel By- election, which by rights the Libs would’ve won as it was all fresh news, but of course Peel is Labor Heartland, more-so than Frentle has been in the last 16 or so years due to the decline in traditional working class people and more Arts/Cultured types.
Oh and here is that TV report you referred to.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/05/17/2572957.htm
Another thing to blame teachers for. Indoctrinating the young with other than traditional working class values.
Who said it was teachers in particular, I’m talking about Painters, musicians etc.
WA Liberal Energy Minister Peter Collier was a Teacher, so they aren’t all labor/green radicals out there.
Those painters and musos were corrupted from an early age by teachers, Frank.
Sorry to get back to the Freo election (and away from teachers, artists etc) but I have been thinking about the last 3 fold flyer Zagami dropped in my area (East Fremantle), which is traditionally Liberal. Baisically the leaflets message placed more emphasis on “Don’t vote Labor” then “Vote Zagami”. I think that Zagami was more intent on making Fremantle a marginal seat then about getting votes for himself. I sopek to my neighbor who is also a Liberalvoter and he said that he was going to vote Green because he did not want to waist his vote on an independant who had no chance of winning. If this was what Zagami wanted to achieve it succeeded because the Greens piccked up about 2000 extra votes from a traditional Liberal area. Very clever campaigning.
John
I live in South Fremantle and have not seen the flyer you are talking about. I have just asked some friends in the Fremantle CBD and they have not seen it either, can somone upload it?
Iwas puzzled that the Greens received all those extra votes from East Freo and Bicton (tradionally Liberal) areas.
Maybe Liberal voters can see the climate emergency we are in and are not impressed with state and federal Labor’s lack of commitment to do anything substantive about it.
Peterc,
No, I think the Liberal intent was that if the ALP had to try to defend the “heartland” areas by moving towards the Greens they (the ALP) would become increasingly alienated from the areas that they need to win to get elected as a viable government.
Very simple, old ploy – but it works. Freo is simply the latest example.
“the Greens received all those extra votes …(tradionally Liberal) areas”:
This will be the ‘Green is the New Black’ phenomenon. For $50 you can get (actually you can’t, stocks are sold out) a t-shirt that says so: “100% Cotton sourced from countries that have the best climates to support cotton crops (e.g. monsoonal rain), etc, etc”
How many seats, state and federal, does labor hold on the back of preferences from greens voters, and thus potentially at risk if the tories adopt a strategy of running dead, like in freo, dog whistling to their constituency that a vote for a green is the only effective vote against labor?
In the recent Qld state farce, even the premier had to go to preferences, the treasurer very much so, and the inheritrix of beattie’s old seat was within 5% of being done by the tory, the greens 4:1 preference flow her way saved her ass.
Greens voters’ actual aggregate preferences, (as distinct from whatever head office deal is extant), the majority being watermelons, will forever stop the tories from winning these seats where the green vote has got above 15% or so. Maybe the tories will generally wake up to that fact of modern electoral life, learn to hold their nose, run dead a la freo, getting behind Green candidates as the only way to dislodge labor, the only way to dry up the watermelon green preference flow which is after all what keeps getting labor in in these seats.
Peterc and Andrew,
How’s this for an alternative explanation? A lot of Liberal voters are liberals straight down the line, and in the absence of a Liberal candidate who they felt closest to in terms of the economic liberal agenda, they preferred the Greens to Labor in terms of the social liberal and civil liberal agenda. The pejorative term for such people is “Doctors’ wives”.
Actually, I think each of us is onto part of the explanation. Another part could be that the number of Liberal voters who shifted to Labor in preference to the Greens may have been more or less balanced by the number of erstwhile Labor voters going over to the Greens, creating the superficial impression of a Liberal to Green shift.
Paul,
I think that many of the Liberal voters in traditionally ALP areas would not want to vote for the ALP in a pink fit and they saw the best way of hurting them was to vote Green. This sort of behaviour could be seen when Phil Cleary won Wills in 1992 and many other instances.
Seriously, guys – pushing the ALP towards a more blatently socialist agenda could only be good for the Libs. It is one of the reasons why governing parties rarely run in elections like this – you are on a hiding to nothing and you really want the preference flows (and, better, the primary flows) to go towards minor parties. The ALP loss here has made Ripper look even worse than he does and has emboldened the ALP Left. Net result is all positive for Barnett.
Paul – A lot of Liberal voters are liberals straight down the line, and in the absence of a Liberal candidate who they felt closest to in terms of the economic liberal agenda, they preferred the Greens to Labor in terms of the social liberal and civil liberal agenda. The pejorative term for such people is “Doctors’ wives”.
.
Reasonable. And the Libs do preference the Greens in certain seats hoping to bump the ALP and/or split the Left. But an appreciable amount of them are concerned about the environment so they vote Green to put pressure on the governing parties. They may not wish the Greens to win govt but they want their voice there. Or ‘a voice’ for the environment.
.
I’m not sure how it breaks down everywhere but I seem to recall that 20% of the Greens’ vote comes from the Right.
.
There’s nothing inherently right or left-wing about sustainability and conservation. And there’s no hard and fast relationship between the rulebook approach that marks current Greens policy and achieving sustainability. The policy is that way because of the predominance of ex-ALP and ex-Comm party people in the Greens.
“There’s nothing inherently right or left-wing about sustainability and conservation.”
So I’m still allowed to be a RWDB despite having a worm farm and doing more km per year on a bike than in a car?
Quite so. Remember that it was Sir Garfield Barwick who founded the Australian Conservation Foundation, and that Quadrant founder James Macauley was a great lover of the south-west Tasmanian wilderness. Harry Clarke, who nobody could lump in with THE LEFT, is very strong on global warming and other environmental issues. Jack Strocchi may also have something to say on this point.
Oh, and the Maoists at Strange Times a.k.a. Last Superpower must be choking on their rice ration at Gerard Henderson’s description of the Greens as “Australia’s only genuinely leftist party”.
Razor,
Odd. We have a worm farm and a vegie patch. Does that beat a worm farm and using a bike?
Paul,
On the philosophical point, I would agree. The difference between a left-wing approach to conservation and a right wing approach (to generalise) is, to me at least, that the left wing will try to use government force to achieve it and the right will tend to use moral suasion.
The desired end is generally similar, the means tend to be different.
Vegie patch is currently at the proposal stage – Mrs Razor thinks it is a great idea but I get to do all the work. I don’t want to do all the work to then have Razor Jnr (Age 2) then wreak havoc.
Razor – put your vegies in those corrugated iron things that look like rainwater tanks – it will keep pests like Razor Jnr out, you can control the soil and watering more easily, and you don’t have to bend over to do the gardening.
Andrew – how would you use moral suasion to solve the greenhouse gas problem, quickly.
Andrew #162, whilst left and right would tend to differ in the choice of means towards the end of sustainability and conservation, I think the difference is that the left would tend to emphasise government regulation and provision whilst the right would tend to emphasise market-based or market-mimicking economic instruments and assigning private property rights. Both would (and do) see a place for moral suasion and education.
Russell,
The use of regulation appears to be going along nicely – and so quickly, too! The terms are clear to everyone and there is no issue with the structure. Oh, wait…
.
Paul,
Yes – probably a more full examination. The Left tends to emphasise force and the use of State power. The Right – persuasion and economic incentives designed to modify the costs to more fully be incorporated into pricing.
Remember that it was Sir Garfield Barwick who founded the Australian Conservation Foundation, and that Quadrant founder James Macauley was a great lover of the south-west Tasmanian wilderness
.
And the green wedge was established by Henry Bolte (no relation).
The Left tends to emphasise force and the use of State power. The Right – persuasion and economic incentives designed to modify the costs to more fully be incorporated into pricing.
.
We’ll need both (imho).
Adrien,
That’s why I said “emphasise” rather than “use exclusively”.
T have stumbled upon a new Freo blog (http://spotter8.wordpress.com/) that seems to have a lot of discussion about the Fremantle Bt Election.
They have a few pdf of election material that does not seem to appear on the other blogs as well as a pdf of the Fremantle Herald front page (May 23,2009) in which they put the blame squarely on McGinty for Labor losing Fremantle.
Also I have heard a rumor that Tagliaferri will run for the Mayoralty again in October AND try to regain Fremantle for Labor in the State election in about 3 years time. If McGinty wears the blame Tagliaferri will not have to wear the tag “The man who lost Fremantle” when he has another tilt at becoming a Member for Fremantle in State Parliament.