Stratfor

well FP dude was right. From the NYT:

State television also reported that the government had arrested five members of the family of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president who heads two influential councils in Iran, a move that escalates the government’s crackdown against the reform movement.

The televison report identified two of those arrested as Mr. Rafsanjani’s daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, as well as her own daughter.

And Moussavi isn’t backing down or taking supporters off the streets for a while, just the opposite. Faarrk.

The opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, appeared at a demonstration in southern Tehran and called for a general strike if he were to be arrested. “I am ready for martyrdom,” he told supporters.

Bastards.

‘One big happy family’ lasted half a day until Friday’s prayers as per Brian’s post @ 97. Now hundreds injured, possibly scores dead and what next? It’s a high stakes game. The announcements from the regime are not subtle – the Tehran Times:

Deputy police chief Ahmadreza Radan announced on Saturday that security forces will deal sternly with illegal gatherings.

He warned that those who encourage people to take to the streets will be “arrested” and “prosecuted”. He also said that those who ask people to attend rallies will be held “accountable” for consequences.

some thoughts from a dude at FP Foreign Policy:

Q. In light of Khamenei’s firm speech Friday indicating he was not going to support a new election, what do you think will happen? Do you think the opposition will have to retreat?

First, it was expected that Khamenei’s first response would be very firm, that’s his modus operandi as a despot: Never compromise in the face of pressure, it only projects weakness and invites more pressure.

Khamenei is [a] shrewder politician than Ahmadinjedad. Whereas Ahmadinejad has a penchant for alienating even hardliners, Khamenei reached out and for now seemingly co-opted some of those that seemed to be previously be sitting on the fence, namely Speaker of the [P]arliament Ali Larijani and Mohsen Rezai, both of whom are tremendous opportunists.

The weight of the world now rests on the shoulders of Mir Hossein Mousavi. I expect that Khamenei’s people have privately sent signals to him that they’re ready for a bloodbath, they’re prepared to use overwhelming force to crush this, and is he willing to lead the people in the streets to slaughter?

Mousavi is not Khomeini, and Khamenei is not the Shah. Meaning, Khomeini would not hesitate to lead his followers to “martyrdom”, and the Shah did not have the stomach for mass bloodshed. This time the religious zealots are the ones holding power.

The anger and the rage and sense of injustice people feel will not subside anytime soon, but if Mousavi concedes defeat he will demoralize millions of people. At the moment the demonstrations really have no other leadership. It’s become a symbiotic relationship, Mousavi feeds off people’s support, and the popular support allows Mousavi the political capital to remain defiant. So Mousavi truly has some agonizing decisions to make.

Rafsanjani’s role also remains critical. Can he co-opt disaffected revolutionary elites to undermine Khamenei? As Khamenei said, they’ve known each other for 52 years, when they were young apostles of Ayatollah Khomeini. I expect that Khamenei’s people have told Rafsanjani that if he continues to agitate against Khamenei behind the scenes, he and his family will be either imprisoned or killed, and that the people of Iran are unlikely to weep for the corrupt Rafsanjani family.

Whatever happens, and I know I shouldn’t be saying this as an analyst, but my eyes well when I think of the tremendous bravery and fortitude of the Iranian people. They deserve a much better regime than the one they have.

Other footage showed tear gas being thrown at crowds & some shooting (?)

The demos had to stop, he said, otherwise there would be bloodshed and the demonstrators would be to blame for getting themselves shot.

Sounds like he’s right out on a limb. The question is can anyone (Rafsanjani?) saw it off.

Also an Iranian filmmaker based in Australia tells of her experience of the marches. Bigger than 1979, for starters.