[Labor's primary vote has nosedived from 42.2 per cent at the election to 36 per cent, while the LNP's support has jumped from 41.6 per cent in March to 47 per cent now.

Based on past preference flows, the LNP would win relatively comfortably if an election was held this week with 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote compared with Labor's 45 per cent.]

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25660968-952,00.html

The other Steve.

I actually watched that circus performance from the Member for Beaudesert and thought it was funny that after his lecture about regionalisation of Beaudesert, the next speaker was from a real regional area, Mt Isa. It was such an impressive speech that I turned the computer off and went to sleep. No need for sleeping pills when young twerps full of their own importance, like McLindon, can send one to sleep so quickly.

[With economic output forecast to decline in 2009-10 and stage a mild upturn in 2010-11, employment is forecast to fall ¾% and recover 1¼% in these respective years. As a result, population growth is forecast to exceed jobs growth, causing the
year-average unemployment rate to rise to 6½% in 2009-10 and peak at 7¼% in 2010-11, the highest year-average rate since 2001-02. However, with jobs growth
projected to strengthen to 2½% and 2¾% over 2011-12 and 2012-13 and to exceed
population growth, the unemployment rate is expected to fall over this period.]

US journalists tend to bend over backwards to say “Full disclosure: I used to be date X 30 years ago”, etc, but then there’s the other party’s privacy to consider. I suppose it depends whether the journo is writing about individuals or the entire Cabinet (Bjelke-Petersen v Burns notwithstanding – it was a bad judgment).

LO -

He is not saying that the budget and the economy are not related, he is saying that it is wrong to assert that the state with the largest deterioration in the budget position has the weakest economy. A reader of Megalogenis may have been given that impression.

That’s right, and I think that’s the most obvious impression a reader would be left with. I suspect the misleading (and actually false given the way they would probably be read) statements are derived from a comparison with the projections in the NSW budget. That should be made plain. To be honest, I very much doubt the projections in NSW have much relationship with what is likely to actually occur. But your point about growth per capita is a good one, and it would be interesting to know how the various states line up on that basis.

[One might, of course, ask whether the striking speed and simultaneity of the downturn could be seen again in the upswing. The reason people think such an outcome is unlikely is that the loss of wealth during 2008 and the need for private-sector balance sheets to be deleveraged are thought likely to constrain both household demand and the ability of the banking sector to expand credit, for some time.

This is a reasonable reading of the history of most financial crises, and underpins the consensus forecast that global growth, when it resumes, will be pretty modest initially.

Yet the speed and size of the responses to the downturn by policy-makers around the world is just as unprecedented as the speed and size of the downturn itself. If there were an upside surprise on global growth, it would most likely be because the collective effects of all those policy responses turned out to be bigger than expected, perhaps because those expectations were formed by looking at a history where such simultaneous responses rarely occurred.]

http://www.rba.gov.au/Speeches/2009/sp_gov_040609.html

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/18/2601798.htm?site=news

Perhaps Langbroek might have been better off if he took on board what Paul Krugman had to say instead of the usual Liberal Party patter about the evil of debt and deficits. The bit that Langbroek seems to miss is this.

[Well then, what about all that government borrowing? All it’s doing is offsetting a plunge in private borrowing — total borrowing is down, not up. Indeed, if the government weren’t running a big deficit right now, the economy would probably be well on its way to a full-fledged depression.]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/opinion/15krugman.html?_r=1

He gives Brack’s some credit as well if you read his comments. Thing is though, George is pushing the privatisation is “reform” barrow. Just as you seem to be thewetmale. Not so smart for many reasons, besides the firesale factor. And the wonder of Jeff is largely overated. Mostly by those who did not live in Victoria when The Pain ruled.