It’s going to be one of those weekends where too much sport will indeed barely be enough, if you’re a sports-watcher.
In the AFL, it’s the home-and-away matchup of the year. While there have been longer winning streaks in the league’s history, never before have two undefeated teams met in the fourteenth round of competition. Geelong is the benchmark team of the competition, winning a premiership in 2007, narrowly missing out in 2008, and hasn’t lost a game this year. St. Kilda’s season has been remarkable not only for its undefeated streak but the margins of its victories; its percentage of 177.5% is the kind of thing you expect to see in the Manangatang District League third-division competition, not the elite competition with its player draft and salary cap as balancing mechanisms.
The Championships will come to their climax at the renovated Wimbledon. While Lleyton Hewitt’s run has ended in the quarter-finals, the prospect of two more displays from the most elegant player of the modern era, Roger Federer, should be worth waiting up for.
But, unsurprisingly, my eyes will be on Monaco for the start of the three-week carnival of cycling that is the Tour de France. If the drama and intrigue during the race gets anywhere close to the pre-race fun and games we’ve had, it should be a cracker.
If you want a list of the favourites, you could try here – the short version is that Alberto Contador is the warm-to-hot favourite, Australia’s Cadel Evans is arguably next in line, and there’s an unusually large bunch of other riders with a realistic chance, including 2008 champion Carlos Sastre, to the Schleck Brothers, to the omnipresent Lance Armstrong. Throw in Giro winner Denis Menchov and Levi Leipheimer and it’s a pretty volatile mix. Cadel has had a last-minute piece of bad news, with a teammate suspended for taking EPO, and again he’ll probably be left without teammates on the hardest climbs of the Tour. But with Contador the marked man of this year’s tour, and with the Astana trio of Armstrong, Contador, and Leipheimer slugging it out against Saxo Bank’s Andy and Frank Schleck, (and possibly providing opportunities for Evans to let them do some of the work for him), he may just get away without needing them. Not to mention, of course, the question that’s been puzzling everyone since Armstrong announced his comeback – is there room for two egos the size of Armstrong’s and Contador’s in the one team?
Key stages to watch include the time trials – dull television, but often decisive. Of the mountain stages, the decisive ones have been deliberately placed at the back of the race this year, with the early stages through the Pyrenees designed to keep the main players together. Only Stage 7’s climb to the ski station at Andorra Arcalis stands much chance of breaking up the main contenders, not because it’s a particularly tough climb in itself, but it comes at the end of 224 kilometres of hilly terrain. While the Tourmalet climb on stage 9 will always be a brute, 70 kilometres of downhill roll to the stage finish will almost certainly bring the major contenders back together again. Several of the Alps stages, by contrast, are good chances for changes in the “general classification”, particularly stage 17, which has two short but very nasty climbs near the finish.
But, if it’s a close race this year, it will be decided at the end of Stage 19 on the slopes of the Mont Ventoux; geologically part of the Alps, it sits well apart from any other mountains of similar size. Its upper part is completely denuded of vegetation, leaving the riders to be buffeted by the mistral, adding an extra degree of difficulty to what is already an extremely long and steep climb.
Long and steep enough that the winner must inevitably be using drugs to get ahead of the pack? Hard to know. There are, undoubtedly, those who use drugs to gain a deliberate advantage in the professional peloton. There have been since the sport of professional cycling began, and the suspension of Thomas Dekker makes obvious that they’re still around. But, just maybe, the UCI’s new “biological passport” program may be making inroads on two fronts – reducing the numbers cheating, and reducing the scope for gaining advantage of those that do. There have been fewer fairytale rides like Floyd Landis’s effort in the 2006 Tour in the past couple of years. And the times on some of the major Tour climbs have actually been going back up a little over the past few years. So while it would be naive to think that drugs are going to play no part in deciding the results of the Tour this year, it’s reasonable to hope that they might have a bit less influence than the recent past.
As well as SBS’s excellent Cycling Central website (whose contributors include LP’s own Philip Gomes), you can get a first-person account of the race from the Twitter feeds of many cyclists, including Cadel Evans, Michael Rogers, and Lance Armstrong, though sadly not Simon Gerrans, who was inexplicably left off his team’s squad for the race.
Oh, and one last thing – the flat stages of the Tour are more than likely going to be the Mark Cavendish show. Cavendish is a delightfully profane character from the Isle of Man who is probably the worst climber and time triallist in the Tour field. But after getting an aerodynamic tow to near the line by Australian “lead-out rider” Mark Renshaw, Cavendish is currently the fastest cyclist alive over the last 200 metres of a stage. But watch for Thor Hushovd, Allan Davis, and Oscar Freire trying to disprove that!
The TdF will be worth it if not too many more drug users are found.
Don’t forget the cricket! The four day tour match between Australia and the England Lions started last night on Fox with Michael Hussey finally getting back amongst the runs.
Just six days to go until the start of the Ashes! *deep breaths*
Exciting stuff….I’m living in Paris at the moment, so my wife and I will be there for the final stage and are going down to the Pyrenees for one of the stages just before Bastille Day….I’m really looking forward to this year’s tour. I’m particularly interested to see whether Armstrong can still match it with the best riders. If he wins again it will be extraordinary.
Thanks for this post. As Jacques said, there’s the Ashes as well.
While reading the descriptions of the stages likely to break the top riders i was all of a sudden very thankful that i was sitting down at a computer and not riding the tour; must be a sign of a well written post. Also thanks for the links to the tweeters on the tour.
Next Thursday is the big one. First day of the first test and the Team Time Trial. I’ve a couple of friends coming over for dinner before hand, then the TV does both channels live side by side. A very blokey heaven, but heaven none the less..
Oh.. and I’ve Next Thursday off
Ooops.. read that as “next Wednesday is the big one etc..”
I’m not a sports watcher.
I’m a sports sneerer and disdainer.
I fear, loathe and detest sport of all kinds.
I resent and object to the commodifisation (howeverso spelt) of physical excertion.
I detest “sports shows” on tv.
I arc up when ABC radio panders to cricket, foot ball and such.
However.
I shall have SBS (bless their multicultural souls) 2 on the TdefeckinF 24/7.
I/we shall be watching as substance enhanced as my/our work schedule allows.
FYI, we’ve just launched our Tour de France site today. Check it out.
And for those web inclined, SBS will be the first media org in the world to stream the TdF live online each night.
Check in at the TdF site on the night (same time as broadcast) to see our spiffy streaming player. Trust me when I say it’ll knock yer sox orf! Cutting edge stuff!
Every minute live on SBS 2 – brilliant. (Still think it should be privatised)
Andrew @ 1 – the more users found the better – rub them out for life.
Razor: I agree that the more they find and punish, the better. I’m not sure whether a life ban for a first offence is justified, though.
Shame on you, Robert, for not even mentioning the Ashes. Talk about sleepless nights; I’m planning a couple of Ashes ’sleep-overs’…
Ashes? Ashes?
Can’t possibly compare to 2005…
And if the last two years are any guide, Evans can’t guarantee having enough fuel left in the engine to take a decisive lead in the second timetrial, especially coming the day after a mountain climb. If he is to rely on the time trials he needs to make the first one count, big-time.
Also worthy of note is the team time trial returning for the first time since 2005. Moreover its under the old rules of absolute time, rather than set time penalties, so potentially teams can make or lose chunks of time here. On the other hand its a very short course, so that’s unlikely unless disaster strikes.
Clean-up begins early – Thomas Dekker kicked out of Silence Lotto on the eve of the tour for some mighty queer results from back in his days in the decade’s most suspicious candy suppliers, team Rabobank.
Less support for Cadel, but I guess he’s getting used to it!
If i’m not mistaken, SBS will be playing the Tour and the Ashes on their 1 & 2 channels concurrently where they overlap.
I love 2009.
Correct, kymbos.
And no delay into WA – finally!
Robert wrt first offences – my wife is a high performance gymnastics coach (flew to Brisbane today for national championships) – she has 9 year old girls who won’t put a pill of any sort in their mouth without her permission and an ASDA reference number. There is no excuse for adult professionals.
Gotta side with Razor on this one Robert.
Fair to say that there’s more than enough information out in the world. Ignorance is absolutely no excuse at all.
Even the 2 year bans are spurious. I loved Ivan Basso to death pre-drugs results. He’s back, he’d riding, but will I ever feel the same about him? No chance.
I reckon the riders who do it clean deserve zero tolerance for the clowns who destroy cycling’s reputation. Or what’s left of it.
Boonen can start. Which I think is good. But Alan Davis misses out – bugger.
Quel embarras! I didn’t realize the first stage was the first time trial.
At 15.5 km Evans best wouldn’t gain more than seconds.
Cancellara to win first TT. Mike Rogers for the quinella.
Razor: like your pick for the TT. I’ve got him in my Fantasy Tour de France team for that very reason.
LOL, same here, Robert.. I’m also hoping for big things from Mick Rogers. For once I’d love to see him bring his TT legs to a grand tour.
I have gone for an all Aussie team with Julian Dean, Jens Voight and Heinrich hausller as honorary Aussies. Saxo as team. Stage to Andora for Bonus.
Missed cutoff for todays TT, I think.
By the way, if anybody wants to join my mini-league, the details are as follows:
Team: Polarized
password: turing
To respond to Razor’s venting on the cricket thread.
Agreed mostly. Evans is an introvert, so this is causing a problem in terms of his leadership even without the issue about Silence-Lotto management.
I think he needs to team up with an extroverted on-the-road leader in the manner of Stewie who would gee-up the troops and speed up the general team decision-making. The trouble with a lot of bike riders is that they’re mono-maniacal. Note how Popovych arced up once back with Lance and Astana – he was obviously responding to the more macho environment. Perhaps Cadel has the wrong brand of pheromone – something simpler (Lynx?) is needed.
That said, the quality of riding in the Silence-Lotto team has been appalling. It was clear during the TTT, that pre-runs and some extra work paid off big time.
He just needs to go where he is given the right kind of set-up.
There had been talk before the GFC of an Australian Focussed Pro-Tour Team.
Imagine a team with all the current TDF aussies plus Gerrans, Davis and McEwen. take your pick for DS – Matt White, Sunderland etc. Awesome.
Haven’t heard much lately.
All of that is fairly clear, but it seems to me that:
a) Cadel is no moron. He’s known for several years well that Silence-Lotto are a weak team , and there are a number of other teams that could support his ambitions better.
b) DS’s of the other ProTour teams aren’t generally morons. They must know that Evans, while perhaps not Contador’s equal, is in the top five Grand Tour riders in the world, and probably would have won in 2008 with a better team in support (and hadn’t crashed). So if I was a DS looking to get podiums in Grand Tours, and Contador isn’t available, Evans would be at the top of my list.
So why is he still at Silence-Lotto?
Razor: They’re going to find it tough to get a sponsor.
Why would a European sponsor fund a team made up mostly of Aussies? Why would an Australian-oriented sponsor throw tens of millions of dollars at a team that performs almost exclusively in the middle of the night and most of its events aren’t even on TV?
Sponsors – true, Robert. But I’ve been amazed at the number of bike-related ads on SBS and they have spread to other stations as well. I think there’s a demographic here that can grow.
And I actually find the bike nerd ad (matt and the mountain climb said in my best Clouseau accent) quite amusing. “Hey, that was close!”
Sponsor – Qantas. Or Australian Tourism of some type?
Then again – why does need to be an Australian Company?
Anybody know what Quickstep is?
“They’re going to find it tough to get a sponsor.”
Let the AIS do it with their cycling budget. All the good ones end up in the TDF anyway, so may as well do it directly.
Robert – as for Cadel not being a moron, I totally agree. I accept that some of my criticism of the tactics is based on hindsight – Mondays Experts as Weddings would sing, but it is deeply frustrating. That said, I believe he has stayed with lotto on the basis of promises to recuit better. They did do that with with Horner (brilliant) and Poppovich (fail), but two in a row with Kohl and Dekker being pinged as druggies – FFS!!!!! Really it is three in a row counting Poppo.
I’d like to see him move to Garmin, Cervelo or Saxo, in that order of preference. Let Lotto go back to being a Belgian Classics team.
Darin – the AIS do put money into Professional Road Racing through their arrangements with the South Australia.com team etc.
As I understand it – it costs about Euro 30 million (AUD 50 million) to run a competitive Pro-Tour team. I am not sure if that includes bikes – which are generally supplied by manufacturers.
Surely the last few days, years, perhaps decades have shown all and sundry the value of a bonded team.
Col/Hi Road and Astana this week, CSC last year, and of course Disco/US Postal with Lance in years past, and a lesser degree T-Mobile for The Kaiser.
It’s exceedingly hard to imagine alone wolf like Cadel fitting into a democratic team set-up to win Tours. Mick Rogers after the Camargue break: “Best team win I’ve experienced in 10 years”.
Can’t disagree with you there via Collins.
I suspect Astana are happy as pigs in poo despite the media beat up over who is the Leader etc.
Bring on the mountains and some real GC stoushing!
So, VC and R, you are suggesting that Evans’ personality may have something to do with the teams structures and tactics that have evolved around him in the last three years?
Katz – No. I am a huge fan of Cadel so I admit my bias. Went to the TDF to watch him win last year.
I know some people say he isn’t a great leader – I disagree, I think he hasn’t had the cattle. You don’t come second twice in a row in the TDF by being a weak leader.
I agree that it is obvious that there are some well bonded strong teams.
I condemn the Spanish white-line road markers being a contributing factor to Mick Rogers nasty slide in Spain overnight.
Heartbreak for the nice guy again…just what you need day before the mountains.
Katz,
I reckon because Evans is an introvert, some of the riders have not necessarily bonded with him – it’s a personality thing rather than leadership per se. Popovych’s response last year and this year in Astana suggests there are types who will not follow particular kinds of leadership.
Of course, Evans has leadership and his past associations with Horner for instance shows he does inspire. The respect he gets from his fellow riders says that also. I reckon a smart DC would set up a team balance that would allow for personality factors. Riders are people, not mountain, sprint and time trial widgets.
I also condemns those slippery Spanish roads – they’re supposed to be suffering from drought, just like we are. I hope both Mick and Cadel fang it in the mountains – they’ve nuthin’ to lose now.
I don’t question Evans’ capabilities as a rider, Razor. He should have won the GC in 2008.
The interesting question is how much of Evans’ 2008 success in coming second in the GC was down to his team.
As far as I can recall Evans got himself into a winning position with very little contribution from the other riders in S-L.
At the moment of truth on the Alpe d’Huez they left him unprotected when he was eaten down to the bone.
“At the moment of truth on the Alpe d’Huez they left him unprotected when he was eaten down to the bone.”
Which made it extra infuriating to see Popyvych leading the charge up that hill at the close last night.
Katz – I think it would be overstating it to say that his team didn’t support him at all. I also believe that CSC and Carlos Sastre were worthy winners. The problem was at the crucial stages not having one Lieutenant to support him.
On the day before the Alpe d’huez Stage I had been out in the morning and climbed Col du Galibier. On returning to my hotel on Alpe d’Huez I was amazed to see that Popyvych was in a break away trying to win the stage. I don’t know what lead Marc Sargent, Cadel or Poppo to think this was a good idea the day before the Alpe d’huez stage. Anybody else have any insight?
I also question why Matt Lloyd wasn’t selected last year when he had proven himself as a mountain climber.
I was also suprised at how well Carlos TT’d and that Cadel didn’t do as well as might have been expected. I was very drunk by the end of the TT having been standing in the sun drinking 8% dutch beer for 2 Euro a stubby.
This all seems terribly unAustralian. It’s just not cricket!
A couple of points from the past couple of days:
Evans’ attack on stage 8 was brave, but it didn’t strike me as all that smart.
Did anybody notice Inigo Cuesta (the 40-year-old
nobodyjourneyman who was selected by Cervelo over Simon Gerrans) being just about the first guy dropped by the peloton in the middle of Andorra-La-Vielle, before they even got to the Arcalis climb proper? Support for Sastre in the mountains my arse…My impression is that Cadel has over-achieved with his two second places, given that he lacks acceleration up hill. Again and again I see the Contadors, Schecks and Sastres apply a burst that enables them to separate from the pack. And despite having an awesome tank Evans just can’t do that. If I was his coach I would get him to spend the next year in isolation working on nothing else. That might make a good Rocky-style movie, too.
Jenny, apparently his climbing has improved a lot this year – he was attacking like crazy in the Dauphine Libere.
You’ll note that neither Sastre nor the Schlecks were able to attack on Arcalis, either, partly because they were riding into a headwind. Only Contador was.
I found the sight of the riders in the breakaway trying to order Evans back into the peleton quite bizarre. It didn’t do him any good because those riders basically went on strike until Evans did as he was told.
Fine: it may seem bizarre, but it was perfectly rational.
While Evans was in the breakaway, it had no chance of succeeding because Astana would have led a chase by the peloton to reel him in – and it would have inevitably succeeded, because Saxo Bank and Cervelo would have had to help out. Cancellara himself would have been ordered back to the peloton by his team’s sporting director to help drag it back up to Evans. Under those circumstances, Evans and the group had no chance of staying away for 160 kilometres.
So while Evans remained in the breakaway, it had no chance of succeeding. Everyone in that group knew it, and Evans, in more rational moments, probably does too.
Given that, it’s absolutely no surprise that Cancellara told Evans where to go.
What I’d really like to have heard is the radio traffic between Evans and his sporting director. The sporting director should have been telling him to bide his time all the way up the first climb.
If Cadel was going to attack, the only place to do it on that stage was the last climb, like Andy Schleck tried. Even that wasn’t likely to succeed, because there was so much downhill roll to the end of the stage.
Otherwise, Cadel will probably hav to bide his time until the Alps. It’s not particularly fair – the Tour route this year has been a massive free kick to Astana with the reintroduction of the team time trial and the neutering of the final two Pyrenees stages. But all the will in the world can’t change that.
There’s still a number of chances for Cadel to make time in the Alps, if he’s god enough.
Yes. Evans made unnecessary enemies with his ill-considered attack. Moreover, his tactics help to undermine his respect in the riding group. He would have been better advised to wait until a couple of mountain-climbers really needed to fang it to achieve some points. Under those conditions, Evans could join them for their mutual benefit.
I think Jenny is correct. Evans simply doesn’t have the explosive acceleration of the riders she mentions.
Robert is correct about the importance of the TTT and its benefit to Astana. However, Evans was sunk on Stage 3, which was about as flat a stage as can be imagined.
“There’s still a number of chances for Cadel to make time in the Alps, if he’s god enough.”
Well yeah, sure. Manufacturing temporal anomalies would be the preserve of deities, in the Alps or otherwise.
I understand all that Robert. But I still think it’s very strange to see riders from diferent teams ordering each other around.
FDB: “manufacturing temporal anomalies would be the preserve of deities”
And only rarely can God be bothered to even sign His work. See under Borges, “The Secret Miracle”.
Robert and others re Cadel’s early attack,
hindsight is more rational than foresight. It was worth an early attack on the v small %age that 4 mins could have been gained before the climb. We have seen this at least once on Floyd’s testosterone run. Otherwise return was the go. Cadel’s SD giving good advice? Que?
And while the other riders were within their right to direct him back it amazes me how many riders manage to fit themselves and their egos onto those tiny seats …
what a bloody damp squib the pyrenees have been.
after a fab opening 4 or 5 days, it’s been a snoozefest in the mountains that have offered so much entertainment in the past. the descent from the col d’agnes is a cracker, but no-one was fanging down for obvious reasons.
but reason can be so dull. the first truly boring mountain sequence i’ve seen. hopefully the french alsp can be doubly as entertaining as usual to make up for it.
The only way Astana can be beaten from here is by continuous multiple attacks from all top 20 riders. If everybody sits around looking at each other trying to win it for themselves – it ain’t going to happen.
There is always a fine line between bravery and stupidity – perhaps if Cancellara and the other big name (can’t recall who it was at the moment) hadn’t been in the break then Cadel might have got the rest to work (I doubt it though). That said I am pleased that Cadel is being aggresive. Puts paid to all the Mopndays experts who say he doesn’t attack enough.
As for him not being able ot accelerate enoug uphill – he doesn’t necessarilly need to. What has suprised me recently is the number of climbers who have improved their TT ability – which is where Cadel used to have an edge.
Having the TTT so early has certainly put a dampner on the GC. I admit to being enthusiastic at it’s return but having seen what it has done to the GC standings I no longer think it should be there. It would have been a much more interesting first week without the TTT affected GC results.
Razor, I think the only way Astana can be beaten is if Armstrong and Contador go at each other with axes.
I reckon that Contador and Armstrong should settle it with a bout of Super Sumo on the summit of the Ventoux. I’d pay to watch that
I want tantrums, rocks being chucked at the top of a pass, Astana riders pushing each other off their bikes. Much more entertaining than the the way they rode the Pyrenees section.
The Astana spat could be settled with some nuclear trashtalk:
CONTADOR: So you think you can take me, do you, Knackers? Sorry … Knacker.
#61 – that would have to be Uno Cojone.
Perhaps Mercurius could bring back that joke which caused him so much grief on the Palin thread.
Technically it’s “cojón”, Roger.
/grammar nut
No radios tonight – should make for very interesting watching (I hope).
I believe “huevos” is also an acceptable substitute. But “un huevo” wouldn’t carry the same idiomatic clout. Add a radish and you’ve got yourself a Roman banquet.
Dionysian—or mononysian? Bacchus—or sack-us?
Bonus points to the French TV crew tonight. Snails? With the peloton at 37 km/h? Genius!
I just saw that, RM! Ligget’s “I don’t mind if they eat them, but I don’t want to see them squashed” as the motorcycles thundered past the camera operator was classic. Panache points all round.
“He Was Shot in the Dardanelles — And a Terrible Place To Be Shot In, That Is”
Take one in the buttocks if you’ve heard this one before.
Queen Victoria visiting the Crimean wounded.
“And what is wrong with this poor gallant soldier?”
“He took a Russkie bullet in the arse yer Majesty.”
“Ahem, rectum. His comrade meant to say rectum, Ma’am”
“Rectum? Bloody nearly killed him.”
“Shall we move on to the officers, Ma’am?”
I think they have made a statement. Dissappointing.
mmmmm – sleep.
Only an accident will beat Contador.