[/end blue_pencil]

The short and mid term factors all favour him – this is going to be nothing other than a Lib voters referendum on last weeks spill, and they will cane Abbbot wihtout mercy

And long term: The old two party system is collapsing in the inner cities. Bit like an ice shelf. Alp v Green contests is where this is all heading. Its inevitable.

Clive Hamilton will win Higgins. The Liberals are in utter disarray. Abbott’s standing in a seat like Higgins must be very low – for many reasons, all of them obvious.

And on the most important issue – climate change – the voters will know where Clive Hamilton stands – but won’t have a clue what the Liberal candidate’s position is. Even if she’s allowed to have one.

OK – when I say the Greens will win – what I mean is that it is probabaly too close to call – but the momentum and positivity of the Greens – the air of desperation that emanates from the Libs – should see Higgins fall.

The article provoked the usual howls from those defining socialism as “the wish to regulate others; for big government;” etc i.e the standard Howard-era American- libertarianish talking points. This just underlines the utterly moronic and ignorant audience to which the Oz contrives.

One chap even said that Marx called the workers “stupid asses”, when as everyone who has paid attention knows, he was talking of the financial speculators!

I corrected him on that.

Still, Hamilton is a wowser. I’m glad I don’t live in Higgins because I couldn’t vote for him despite his position on climate change.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/04/2762235.htm

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/green-wowser-is-no-leftie/story-e6frg6zo-1225806770219

Even more interesting is the fact the Oz ran it. Guess they must be concerned Hamilton’s a chance.

I think its going to be damn close – especially without Costello’s personal vote. Dwyer’s gone to ground, and wont go on radio.

And maybe the loyalty to a Liberal candidate in Higgins was a bit about tip and less about a love of the hard right. Voters have a chance to stick it to them, the climate change skeptics, and in a few months time make it all nice by voting Kelly in, then. If there are any small “l” liberals around you will find them in Malvern.

And a 4% swing to Labor in 2004.

I also know the electorate well, Rebekka, having lived there for years. Point taken on Mackerras but it is interesting that he is prepared to call for the greens.

Higgins residents couldn’t give a stuff whether their Liberal candidates turn up to debate other candidates. Peter Costello never, ever turned up to a candidates’ forum, a debate of any sort, or anything where everything couldn’t be carefully scripted and he couldn’t control the questions he was asked, and they kept re-electing him.