Peter Van Onselen’s new role at Newspoll Central appears to be a second string Dennis Shanahan, adding a second dose of commentary on the almighty Newspoll a day after the master pronounces on how it is to be interpreted. Van Onselen’s special subject is the Liberal leadership. I can’t find him on line today, but the gist is… you know, maybe Malcolm’s not gone by Christmas, but he still needs to prove that he’s not having a third “dead cat bounce”. I imagine that Van Onselen’s value to the Oz is his Liberal connections, but that’s always something of a dangerous game – let’s not forget his breathless performance on Lateline a while back when he’d clearly had his ear bent by a few Libs and was more or less pronouncing that Turnbull was finished, all caught up in the dubious excitement of the brief Hockey speculate-a-thon.
It’s a similar style of proceeding to Imre Salusinszky’s; who, incidentally, looked almost disappointed that Nathan Rees had actually put a bomb under the endless round of destabilisation at NSW Labor conference. All those Chinese lunches and hot tips over yum cha about Della or Kristina Keneally, or someone, being Premier before the month or year is out or whenevs, gone to waste.
Much more astute was the commentary in today’s Fin Review and Crikey – Turnbull is being squeezed by a pincer movement – Minchin within and Rudd without. The commentariat should wake up to the fact that the truth is Labor would like to see Mal go – because he’s actually the most plausible opponent (and who knows what he could have done had he not been forced to lead such a rabble – including the Coalition’s false friends in the media among the troops in constant revolt).
No one else the Libs could put up against Rudd would have even a ghost of a chance.
… which leads me to the “honeymoon is over” theme. If indeed it is true that there has been a bit of a shift in the electorate’s mood (and as I’ve said recently, I think it’s too early to call that), the so-called return to normalcy is much more likely to be a result of relief that the effects of the GFC are finally past us, rather than any supposed “doubts” about Rudd or concerns about asylum seekers. Anyone who’s ever run a focus group can readily imagine how such “doubts” could come up, without having any massive significance. In fact, if you’re doing your job, you’d be asking the same questions about Turnbull. I smell a big rat on this particular media leak. And on the latter, I think it’s much more probable that it’s the messiness of Rudd’s message, and the sheer volume of ‘crisis’ rhetoric that’s likely to account for the blip, if that’s it at all.
The biggest failing of the public polls, unlike the parties’ tracking polls, is that they don’t ask any questions which would disclose the salience of issues and events to vote shifts. That’s why a lot of the hackneyed commentary is just that. If they did, of course, it would cost a bit more, and they’d need to know a bit more about stats to interpret them, and it would also forever destroy the myth that there’s some privileged insight political journos have.
But in the absence of access to such data, the more prosaic hypothesis is that voters want to see the government act on what it promised to do – bread and butter improvements in service delivery, primarily. The Rudd government, if not the commentariat, will be aware of this, and I’d expect a switch in the rhetoric very quickly after parliament rises for the year and the political shenanigans around the CPRS wear out their use by date as political fodder for beating up the opposition.
So – does this mean that Labor’s support is “soft” in the absence of something the government portrayed as a national emergency? Well, yes, sort of. But what needs to be recalled here is that Rudd has always been determined to maintain a large lead in the polls, and thus prepared to lose a few points during a campaign. In part that’s a reflection that his own campaigning skills (as opposed to political skills) aren’t the best ever. It also builds up a cushion for all sorts of fires to burst out, compensates for regional and state based weaknesses (and drag by unpopular Labor administrations).
It’s a classic State Labor strategy.
It may not – in the different environment of federal politics – lead to a landslide 2nd term victory (though it might). It does rest on keeping the opposition irrelevant, and making them bear all the brunt of looking political and petty. So far it’s working. It works in part because most of the parliamentary theatre – of so much interest to Liberals and media alike – is perceived negatively by the electorate, if not ignored entirely. Rudd’s victory was a victory for a strategy which recognised that people were sick of John Howard, in part because he got too political. That strategy is still in place. If Turnbull is toppled, it’ll only reinforce its success.
In other words, the obsessive focus of the media on the minutiae of the political cycle, and the constant reporting and inciting of leadership divisions and rumblings in Liberal ranks, plays into Rudd’s hands, rather than “putting the government under scrutiny”. If you actually wanted to go looking for some real political problems the Rudd government would not want people to read about, you wouldn’t have to look too far.
So, if we had a less lazy Press, the Govt would find life somewhat less comfortable?
The next twelve months will be quite interesting, to say the least.
There were a hell of a lot of reviews commissioned. A lot of them have reported back, and the various cabinet ministers must have spent a lot of time cogitating over how to respond to them.
Then you’ve got the promise of a “tough” budget – but as I understand it, the winding back of the stimulus spending and the better-than-expected revenue should leave some wiggle room.
So, yes, by rights there should be quite a lot of policy dumped on the agenda over the next year, either in the shadow of an election or as an election manifesto.
And, of course, the government can pick and choose which issues they run with at what times.
Well, now the Oceanic Viking has dumped the Asylum seekers in Indonesia, we can surely assume it will disappear from the TV and front pages within a couple of day as the Liberal Party is overtaken by the chaos of the CPRS and Rudd and the electorate go on their second homeymoon.
Oh no! Paul Burns, tell me it ain’t true…
Mr Rudd is not a homey???
Actually, Paul Burns I believe the Ocean Viking saga will turn out to be a winner for Prime Minister Rudd, who once again has demonstrated his ability to stay on message and not be distracted by the superificiality of the glib view of the media commentariat.
From the outset Rudd’s message was that the Oceanic Viking was responding to an Indonesian request to pick up people in difficulty on the high seas in waters within Indonesia’s sphere and take them to the nearest port – which was in Indonesia.
He further said when the the refugees demanded to be taken to Christmas Island that this would not happen because it would be against international law.
And, when some Indonesian officials became stroppy, Rudd responded with the legal position and the fact that both Australia and Indonesia had infinite patience to see the matter through.
Despite the Liberal Premier of Western Australia saying the refugees should be brought to Christmas Island, Rudd maintained his position that this would not happen.
He stared down the forces in Indonesia and the Opposition because he stayed on message – a trait first evident in his 2007 campaign against Howard.
Turnbull, by contrast, was all over the place. He gambled all on Rudd giving in to what he saw as Indonesian unhappiness at the situation. Then, he claimed Rudd had given favourable treatment to the Sir Lankan refugees aboard the Oceanic Viking, whose demand was that they would not leave the ship unless they were taken to Christmas Island.
They were not taken to Christmas Island, and they left the ship to go to an Indonesia detention centre. The infinite patience of Rudd was rewarded.
The Immigration Department Secretary gave written advice that the proposition put to the refugees aboard the Oceanic Viking was consistent with normal practice.
Then, we had the spectacle of Turnbull, opening himself up to reminders of the last time he claimed Rudd of misleading Parliament (the Utegate affair), of not having the courage to pursue the matter despite Rudd’s invitation for him to do so.
The best evidence Turnbull could produce was to cite the “objective” opinions of Australian columnists such as Dennis Shanahan, Greg Sheridan and Paul Kelly (all of them vying for who can be the most strident of His Master’s Voice), to try to justify his claim that Rudd was guilty of misleading Parliament.
Perhaps, though, the biggest political mistake of the Opposition was to try to suggest that Rudd’s position that the Oceanic Viking refugees would disembark in Indonesia, had damaged Australia’s relationship with that country and resulted in the deferment of a planned visit by the Indonesian President.
I wonder how much the Oppositionimagined an Australian political leader lost in support by sticking to his position that the Indonesians were obliged to uphold maritime law – something which arguably the Howard Government did not do with Tampa?
Then, there is the spectacle of the Opposition spokesperson suggesting that by not bringing the Oceanic Viking refugees to Christmas Island resulted in sending a message to refugees that this would encourage more refugees to try to come of Australia.
As Rudd remarked in the House of Representatives on Wednesday the Opposition has a Left approach (boo hoo, we’ve offended Indonesia) and a Right approach (why are we arranging for women and children have separate accommodation in the Indonesian detention centre?).
Rudd said the demands by the refugees aboard the Oceanic Viking that they be processed on Christmas Island would not occur. He was right.
In the final analysis this is what people will remember. Australia did not cave into the demand by the Oceanc Viking refugess. Australia also stared down those Indonesians who were trying to bully it into abandoning its position.
“Rudd has always been determined to maintain a large lead in the polls”
He has no choice. Voting data in 2007 is as raw as you get. It really aint that great a margin thus you need to amplify it. I’d suspect the libs are on to that perception management and that is why Rudd needs to keep the ramping it up. The question is how it goes with NSW and QLD. I guess it doesn’t matter because he plans to take more seats in WA ans SA.
While Tunbull is certainly the closest thing the opposition have to a credible leader, he’s already displayed such appalling judgment over Utegate that he’s unelectable. Even if the electorate forgot about the Grech adventure, it’d be simple to tempt him into something else equally stupid , as he has no self-control.
So true! But Minchin at all ‘own’ the Party even though it’s bankrupt in so many ways. Time for another resurrection? Another bypass? Just joking.
JohnL @ 5,
I suspect Rudd may have been even more devilishly clever than that. I’m not sure exactly when it dawned on me, but I think it might have been around about the time Rudd told Turnbull that Turnbull was having a Godwin Gretch moment over the Oceanic Viking during Question Time. I suspect Turnbull’s accusations that Rudd has arranged some special deal for the Oceanic Viking refugees are so far off the mark and so utterly wrong, but Rudd is at the moment playing with him. At the right moment, possibly when the Libs are in utter chaos over the CPRS, Rudd will make public through a Dorothy Dixer in QT exactly what the “deal” was and it will be so different from the Opposition’s accusations and even more acceptable to the electorate than you suggest that they’ll end up looking like bloody idiots yet again.
Or maybe I’ve got a suspicious mind.
Paul Burns @8: “Or maybe I’ve got a suspicious mind.”
Yep, I reckon so.
I’ve got one too, but my suspicion is that Rudd and his team were privately sweating over it. You could never know how those guys were going to react, so you would not know how long it was going to drag out, especially having publicly closed off most of your options.
I’m a lousy negotiator, but my suspicion is that he would have had a stronger negotiating position if he didn’t publicly close off his other options. Even if he never intended to use other options (e.g. forcing them off in Indonesia, or turning the ship back to Sri Lanka), he might have put more pressure on them by leaving the fear of a worse alternative still floating.
I still think they had no business holding our customs vessel hostage to their DEMANDS. Bloody cheek. Rudd looked a weak negotiator, as far as this household is concerned.
Rudd will leave Australia vulnerable to more of the same, if a lot of them wind up getting a fast-track permanent residency as a result of their stunt.
Elise@9,
We’re getting a lot of boats turning up at the moment because its the pre-monsoon season. Once the monsoon strikes, they can’t get here. Nothing to do with Rudd being weak on border protection.
(that thing they call geography you study at school.)
Paul Burns @10, well there you go!
Turns out that refugees are a function of weather.
And geography. Well I never!
Hope someone explains this geography thingo to them real soon, so they can take the shorter route back to neighbouring India.
Climate, actually, which is one of the things you learn about in geography.
Rudd has promised each of those 78 refugees a free ute.
Seriously, though, the Opposition is doing it’s best to voodoo as many boats as possible. They know that their soundbites about “Australia laying out the welcome mat, going soft on border protection…..etc” are filtering back to refugee camps.
Duplicitous swine they are.
Elise@9, I would suggest that those on the Pacific Viking have already suffered enough fear. Your proposals for the Rudd negotiating team are sadistic, unsound and ground already taken by the Coalition bovver boy Barnaby Joyce.
One thing this over-cooked and sorry saga has done, however, is flush out the hard line policy that Turnbull and co will take to an election. It will surely kill off any notion of Mal as some cuddly small l liberal, waiting to reinvent the party.
In the long run it will hurt them to have had Dolly, out there, spilling the beans on the merciless and underhand tactics, they employed in government, which just happened to involve ‘Indonesian baiting’ for something funny to do. And Howard and Ruddock out of the crypt, as well, providing extra topping to remind voters why they dumped these idiots last time.
Elise@9
That’s unclear but the global PR damage from adopting that position would have been serious. I am glad that he did so.
I should say talk of “special deals” is nonsense. Essentially what the government has done is promise to do in practice what should be done for all genuine refugees in theory. One of the provisions was that they can’t be abused while in Indonesian detention.
Thin end of the wedge obviously. No abuse? No children behind bars? Speedy processing and resettlement? Where will it all end?
Surely Turnbull cannot be all that dumb, and remembering that he was once a leading light in the republican movement, and mates with some leading Labour figures I can’t help wondering that his main mistake is joining the wrong party – or perhaps he is just a Labour plant!
Interestingly, Chris Evans revealed on Radio National this morning (at least I think it was RN – saw it on ABC2 -) that the details of this so-called deal were tabled in Parliament last week. (Fran Kelly hadn’t read it.) Now, I don’t expect ABC journalists to read govt. documents any more, or at least, not until they’ve received riding instructions from the Murdoch employees on the ABC Board on how to interpret them. However, I do expect the Leader of the Opposition to read them. If the arrangement with the Tamil refugees is as innocuous as Chris Evens made it sound – I haven’t seen the tabled documents – Malcolm is really going to get egg all over his face. Here comes Godwin Gretch all over again. I can’t imagine Evans was telling porkies. After all any journalist worth their salt just has to read the document to check.
If Evans’s demeanour was any indication, I suspect the ALP is getting a bit fed up with the slackness of some ABC journos.
The guts of it seems to be not all of the Oceanic Viking 78 are likely to come to Oz. Only some of them. Arrangements are being made to send some of them elsewhere. (Sweden was mentioned and I suspect there’s a bit of behind-the-scenes pressure being put on New Zealand.)
This is the pointer on the ABC website under the heading “Troubled waters”
“The Oceanic Viking stand-off may be over but it has clearly left a bad taste in the mouths of many Indonesian officials”
Then the actual story says: “Next is the debate over whether the 10 women and children in the group are also in detention, or outside it, as Kevin Rudd says they are.
“The stand-off may be over but it has clearly left a bad taste in the mouths of many Indonesian officials, if not the country’s president.
“Indonesia’s top official dealing with the month-long saga, Dr Sujatmiko, says the asylum seekers and his government expect Australia to keep its promise to resettle them soon.
“’[The asylum seekers] are very glad to disembark from the vessel, hoping that Australia keep the promise to come to Australia,’ he said.
“’This is their expectation and Indonesian government expectation.
“’[They will go to] Australia, or other countries. We’ll come back to Australia to keep the promise. After the deadline, out from Indonesia.’”
Dr Sujatmiko is the only Indonesian official quoted. Basic journalism used to insist that if you wrote about many Indonesian officials, you justified it.
Dr Sujatmiko’s quotes about the eventual destination of the refugees are also ambivalent. At first the ABC quotes him as the refugees and Indoensia expect to go to Australia and then that they will go to Australia “or other countries”. ”
The story also indicates there is a “debate over whether the 10 women and children in the group are also in detention, or outside it, as Kevin Rudd says they are.”
Towards the end of the story, the justification for this claim is: “The Federal Government says there is a special arrangement for the 10 women and children among the 78 Sri Lankans, adding they will not be housed in the detention centre but in a facility nearby.
“Dr Sujatmiko says that while they had initially entered the detention centre, they would soon be transferred next door to a building called temporary holding room and canteen.
“’his is the request from Australia that we are going to treat women and children separately,’ he said.
“’We are going to give the children a much better place than [the detention centre]’.”
Now, that hardly seems to be a debate. Dr Sujatmiko said the women and children would be moved to a temporary holding room and canteen at Australia’s request “to treat women and children separately”.
All round, it’s sloppy and partisan journalism at the ABC, probably resulting from a continuing desire to justify the anti-Government line it took from the start of this issue.
CMMC@13 I am glad you mentioned that. They did everything they could do to undermine the economic recovery with injudicious commentary now they are doing their best to incorrectly advertise matters they pretend to have concerns about.
Tony Abbott: “Kevin Rudd’s policy is Australia by Christmas. If you’re a boat person, Kevin Rudd says Australia by Christmas, that’ll be the message that …etc”
Yes, Paul Burns: that was interesting hearing the Minister gently chide Fran for making an unsound claim.
I note his placid demeanour, when all {the journos} around him are losing their cool.
And former ALP Govt figures would have been much more aggressive IMO…
RJL Hawke “Errrr, Fran, you ask me in to discuss this issue and you haven’t done your homework!! Are standards at the ABC really that low? Do you have a question based on something FACTUAL for me? Aaaargh…”
PJ Keating: “Now, really Fran! Are you joining those toads and stuffed shirts over at Rupert’s Rag??!! You’re not as dim as them, are you Fran? The document was tabled; even that pathetic Opposition up in Canberra have had time to read it – though you wonder sometimes if Barnaby can read, and the simpering Julie is probably too idle, I grant you – but you, Fran! Really. Next question?”
et cetera
Paul Burns wrote, “After all any journalist worth their salt just has to read the document to check.”
I think I see the problem, Paul …
The only time I saw Rudd take a backward step throughout this whole media circus re the Oceanic Viking (in which the ABC News Rooms and Fran Kelly in particular have really disgraced themselves) was last week when old RockFace Malcolm Fraser surfaced and said something mildly intelligent (as he usually does on race issues).
Fraser admonished the PM for trying to micro-manage the daily news cycle, remarked that the Opposition was making a mess of our foreign relations (is there anyone stupider than Julie Bishop?), and suggested that Rudd should just shut up and leave it to his ministers to manage.
Rudd instantly went quiet and the calm tones of Chris Evans took over on the airwaves. Smart play by Rudd and his strategists, I thought.
This issue is dead in the water now, and the Opposition will now have to start dealing with the serious business at hand, in the middle of the heatwave of the century – including those SA MPs who are getting really hot under the collar with Minchin and Bernardi.
Wilson Tuckey. It’s interesting (but probably not indicative of anything) that they’re both from WA (although, to my chagrin, Bishop was born and raised in SA).
Joe2 @14, not sadistic mate, just talking practicalities of negotiating with people who have taken over your property and are demanding that they get what they want.
Let’s make it personal. Let’s say several people take over your car, refuse to give it back for weeks on end, and say they will only give it back if you give them what they want. Sooo, you say that you won’t force them in any way, but you will offer them bribes of increasing value until they accept…
Strong negotiating position?
That was my point.
I agree with what you said originally @9, Elise, where you said you were a “lousy negotiator”. When communicating with desperate people the use of fear as a tactic is both morally wrong and likely to bring about dangerous and unintended consequences.
Your attempt at a personal analogy is just plain silly because that would be a criminal act. Making a claim for asylum because of fear of persecution is a totally different circumstance to car theft. No one, apart from hard hearted souls, would imagine the OV issue was one of hijack or boat stealing.
Geez Elise, if only the world was that simple, or simple minded.
Heard of empathy?
And below, that other boat at Merat, from an e-mail I just recieved. FYI.
PB.
Sarda
I have just spoken to Alex on the boat off Jakarta (Merak).
A 24 year old boy has collapsed with profuse diarrhea and vomiting. From what I could make out from here, and having seen lots of this in Sri Lnaka, I think he has typoid, cholera or bacillary dysentry. I gave instructions over the phone of how he should be resuscitate but this is all bullshit, he has to be put on a dextrose-saline drip NOW. Tomorrow might be too late. Even if he survives, you’d almost certainly find that his kidneys have shut down, because that’s the way things go in this game.
The Indonesian authorities have refused to see him today. This is just outrageous.
I called Amnesty International London, not once but twice. The brilliant girl at the desk put me through to the Sri Lankan desk, which sounds OK if there was someone at the desk!!! Not if there is a blasted recorded message. I asked that they call me at once. So far, and it is now 2 hours, Ive heard nothing, and it is right in the middle of the day for them. So they cannot be asleep (or rather should not be).
I called UNHCR, the Director of Legal Aid Jakarta, the Jesuit Refugee Services, and evyone except God himself.
The only fellow of any value was a guy called Bapak Fitri, who must have been impressed by me speaking to him in Bhasa Indonesia, since he warmed to me!!! He said he’d try and get some medical fellow on the boat asap (which in Indonesia (where I teach Medicine) means from 24 to 240 hours. I told Mr Bapak that he will be hearing from me again, and that he sure will do!! Actually, I must not be hard on the fellow, since he seemed a decent stick even if he is working in the Indonesian Immigration Department. He asked me to send him the name of the patient as a text message which, at my age, is Greek. So Madhuni, who has put thru some 20 calls to me in as many minutes on this issue, said that she will send the text message to Bapak as from me.
This is just bloody nonsense. We really have to get on the blower and call the media, Rudd, Stephen Smith, and all these jokers and ask them whether thy will arrange for one of us to go to Jakarta and see what the hell is going on, medically, I mean. The person who goes must know the difference between cholera and the flu.
I think we should call the BBC in London, ABC in Australia, send an sos to all the Tamil organizations eg Canadian Tamil Congress, those sleeping Tamils in New York, the GTF the British Tamils etc and ask them what they are doing.
Just for the record I called Amnesty International and asked to be put thru to the ‘Australia desk”. No reply. He/she has done walkies.. I called again and asked to be put through to the Indonesia desk. No he/she has gone walkies. I then called the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Hunan Rights. No he/she has gone walkies. Then I called UNHCR, not the most cooperative people on this planet. They did not bother to pick up the phone.
We (or rather Madhuni), has been at this game from 9pm to 11 pm.
Ive just (11.15pm) had a call. An ambulance has arrived at the Merak to take the boy to hospital. Well, all I can say is “Long Live the Indonesian Immigration Department, Bapak Merak, in particular. Ill track the fellow down when I next go creeping around Jakarta and give him a hug.
This is going to be repeated many times. That’s the name of the game when typoid, cholera, bacillary dysentry and enterophatic E Coli get going. So brace yourself for more
Brian Senewiratne