You really have to feel a bit sorry for Malcolm Turnbull. Any chance he had of representing himself as leading a party enlightened on the policy response to climate change is gone completely, no matter what happens in tomorrow’s party room debate on the amendments negotiated between Ian Macfarlane and Penny Wong.
Tonight’s Lateline had the New South Wales National Senator, John Williams, orating about “global control” and declaiming “carbon is not a pollutant”. Then we saw Kevin Andrews, of all people, in effect refusing to rule out a leadership bid. Very hard to say which is more insane…
Earlier on LP: Previous post and discussion on the politics of the Liberals’ divisions over the CPRS.
Update: D-Day developments covered here.
I don’t feel sorry for him. He’s far too impetuous for a man who would be the alternative PM. (Otherwise he would’ve kept his powder dry, and let Nelson or someone lead the Libs to their next, inevitable, defeat.)
I did say “a bit”! But, really, what could anyone have done with that mob?
And I cannot believe anyone would seriously suggest Kevin Andrews could be leader.
What could anyone do with them? That’s my point. Malcolm wants it all, and he wants it now, which means he’ll only ever taste the ashes of defeat.
Kevin Andrews is an even funnier idea than Tony Abbott, but we really need a decent opposition, ffs.
Very hard to see how that’s going to happen in the short to medium term, David.
Oh boy, K Andrews. Something special for fans of the macabre.
And like I knew I didn’t really like them, but I had no idea the opposition were that kooky. That weird John Williams person – he’s gone and out-kooked Julian McGauran. No mean feat. Like a 25yo libertarian blogger. Global control. Classic stuff.
And also on Lateline was Flannery. Has lost the long face. Hope his optimism is well-placed. Says Rudd is a true believer now.
Malcom Turnbull should be replaced ASAP. You can’t still seriously be in denial about these emails can you? The charade is finished. These “scientists” are pure political agenda pushers, nothing more.
http://www.infowars.com/climatic-research-unit-hacked-e-mails-data/
http://www.infowars.com/global-warming-meltdown-climategate/
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2009/11/20/climate-cuttings-33.html
Absolutely, Wbb, It sure has been one bizarre freakshow – the denialists in the coalition are like visiting Barnum & Barnum. I give you Cory Benardi – is he the most inarticulate person to ever serve in federal parliament? They guy can barely string a sentence together. was he elected on the strength of grim fascination?
Then there’s McGauran – who appears to under the influence of heavy sedatives; Not to mention Fielding, wandering around like Nigel No-mates, hoping the media will look at his silly placards. And Minchin, looking more like some sort of coalition Davros figure every week. Blimey!
This “no decision before Copenhagen” line from the Coalition (?) doesn’t fit well with the Howard era meme of “Australia punching above its weight”.
Actually, as the grammar dictates, the phrase should read “Australia punching above her weight”. But that would detract from the macho sentiment of the slogan.
No I don’t.
I’m one of those people who think government and governance is better in Australia if you have a coherent opposition (though it’s a weakly held view, without solid evidence). These Libs will be out of power for decades at this rate. Still, when they do return, they will hopefully be sane.
Or maybe the Greens will grow up a little bit and become a broadly representative political party. That would be preferable.
We could sure use a good Opposition in SA right about now.
Yes, the Opposition in SA has gone strangely silent.
I suspect it is because Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond has a background in the law and is well aware of the pitfalls of dipping her oar in, particularly when one of the protagonists is famously litigious…
Kevin Andrews knows the truth.
God killed all those devilish dinosaurs 4000 years ago so that God-fearing folk could refine their remains and use the petroleum products to drive to Christian churches to pray for the end of the world.
When the world ends the righteous will already have been enraptured into heaven, leaving all unregenerates (you know who you are) to suffer God’s ultimate sulphurous, brimstone-laden wrath.
It’s about time that the Liberal Party got square with God’s Big Battalions.
Vote 1 Kevin Andrews. It’s what Jesus would do.
I dunno about “God’s ultimate sulphurous, brimstone-laden wrath” but Abbot sure looked like he could deliver in a grab shown on last nights ABC news.
I do feel sorry for Turnbull. I wish our right looked broadly like him, rather than the genuine conservative ugliness of your Howards or Abbots. And because of the absolute mess that is the Coalition, we can expect nothing of value from this Government, which simply cannot pass up this opportunity to grind them into the dust instead of realising any progressive agenda. Like a child pulling the wings off a fly.
Mark says:
Mark your LP bashing is speculative partisan spin not based on hard evidence and unlikely to survive an effective test on its implied electoral prediction. Have you or any other LP’ers actually made any predictions on this and if not how are we supposed to test your model?
The LP is not much worse than the ALP on climate change. One should not forget that it was John Howard who was the first PM to commit to an ETS. And it is the coal-mining union dominated state ALPs that are currently the worst offenders when it comes to worsening carbon pollution.
The LP’s divisions on climate change policy have not caused it to lose votes just yet. Quite the opposite, at the moment polling reports there is a softening support for CPRS in the community. That will harden as the earth cooks.
Its true that if the denialists win and the LP caucus rejects the Wong-McFarlane compromise bill then the LP’s long term (decade +) climate policy credibility will suffer. But this process has not gone through the formality of occurring yet.
Nor will it occur.
For the better part of two years I have predicted that the L/NP will sign onto an ETS, simply on the basis of the strong convergence tendency in the AUS political system. On 05 JUL 08 I predicted that the L/NP will eventually support some form of effective CRPS:
There is an underlying community consensus of good sense, 51% of whose votes the L/NP must attract in order to hold office. So I am sticking to this prediction despite the hysterical tantrums being thrown by various figures in the LP party room.
I do not think the ALP wants to risk a Double Dissolution and I do not think that the marginal seat-warmers in the LP have the guts to fight one on this issue. As I argues on Quiggin:
Of course the major party political convergence on policy (which I have been hammering on since 2001) does not mean that the policy will be ideal. My model of economic policy making predicts that our leaders tend to “take the path of least resistance between Right-wing vested interests and Left-wing public opinion”.
The ETS fits this model. It is a token to Left-wing public opinion but pays real money to Right-wing vested interests. The result is what, in AUG 08, I described as a Potemkin village carbon trading schemes.
If Rudd was serious about carbon constraint in particular and ecological sustainability in general he would slash immigration by at two-thirds, to say 200,000 pa all up, so that it just covered population losses through emigration and sub-replacement fertility levels. But instead immigration is running at 500,000+. THAT is where the real carbon overload is coming from.
But both parties want massive immigration as it suits the interests of a capitalist state to have as many consumers and tax-payers as possible.
In truth the wiser heads of both parties just wish this issue would go away since it causes more headaches than it cures, especially amongst the noisy fringe elements in each party’s base. So they will both be glad to get this bill through, which accounts for the unprecedented show of front-bench bi-partisanship.
The Centre will hold, as it always does in Oz.
Politicians fiddle while the world burns, Just what we need.
Suspect Malcolm will get rolled and Abbott will take over and I bet its all been pre-arranged from just before the day Abbott shifted his position on Global Warming. Kevin Andrews is there so the electorate gets the idea its a real leadership challenge not a back-room Howardista roll engineered by a slightly insane Nick Minchin. Andrews ain’t serious, though I wish he were. (perhaps Abbatt actually wants to put him up so he can lose in the next election, and Abbott can take over after that.
Malcolm will resign from Parliament. Rudd will make him the Australian representative on whatever the international organisation on CC comes out of Copenhagen.
Basically, I think neither Labor nor the left can afford to underestimate the appeal of a gentler Abbott. I know (Minchin aside) he’s the Howardista from Hell, but don’t bet on the electorate realising it until its too late. Like, when he’s PM?
My bet is on “Chief Artificial Coffee Creamer Officer“.
If Kevin Andrews really is throwing his hat into the ring… lulz are forthcoming.
Turnbull will win in the party room on the ETS because, while there are some kamikazes in the parliamentary Liberal Party, they are a minority.
But he is a dead leader walking and will go soon. Rudd should offer him a place in the Cabinet if he switches to the Labor party. He’s make a better minister than half the Cabinet.
I reckon he’d retain the seat of Wentworth. He is one of them. Labor of Liberal, it doesn’t matter.
I believe that Abbott has enough self-knowledge to concede to himself that he is a deeply divisive figure in Australian politics.
Therefore, I believe, Abbott knows that if he were to become Liberal parliamentary leader the party would be reduced to a small, right-wing rump.
I think it can be argued that Abbott understands that the best hope for his tendency within conservative politics is to be a ginger group within a party with broad electoral appeal.
The problem for the Libs is that they have no one who promises to be a vote-winner who can simultaneously prevent the party’s factions from tearing each other apart.
I’ve been saying it for some time but there has never been a riper moment since 1947 for a major institutional overhaul of non-Labor politics in Australia.
I expect to see a “Progressive Party” and/or a “Values Party” come into existence soon after the next federal election.
Sam@19,
Nobody in the ALP would want Malcolm. By joining the Libs he sort of ratted on his republican principles. Besides, his leadership ambitions would somewhat unsettle a whole heap of much more promising ministers on the Labor side.
Malcolm actually isn’t a very good leader for a political party. Challenging people to dump you if they won’t go along with your personal beliefs as he did on CC was not a smart political move within the Opposition, as much as I applaud it. Godwin Gretch/Utegate was political stupidity of the highest order. And, while there are serious questions to be asked about how detainees in Indonesia and on Xmas Island are being treated, Malcolm seems too stupid to go beyond the Howard trope of “We ain’t never gonna let ‘em in this country because – well, they’re the wrong skin colour” subtext.
Leadership material? Bunkum.
Paul 21, I didn’t say that he would or could or should become leader of the Labor Party. Every man has his limitations, and Malcolm’s have been clearly exposed. He is not a leader. That is obvious.
But I do think he could make a good cabinet minister in Rudd’s government. I think he could have the imagination and smarts to be be a good industry minister, for instance. Much better than that space waster, Kim Carr, in any case.
Sam@22,
Yeah, but Malcolm wouldn’t want that, Sam. He’d want to be leader.
One of Malcolm’s biggest problems is he is convinced he is much, much smarter than everyone else. That is why he couldn’t sit by and let Brendan Nelson go to an unwinnable election, and why he wouldn’t make a good minister for a significant period of time. He’d want to be leader.
This may now be academic.
gah.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2009/11/24/turnbulls-torment-robb-turns-on-his-leader/
going by A. Crabb on twitter there was a lot of nervous list-checking and whispered convos with Hockey.
Linked to that on a new post:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/11/24/d-day-for-the-liberals-and-the-governments-cprs-giveaway/