Comments on: Crash through or crash? What Turnbull should do now…

By: Mark

Mark — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:38:41 +0000

I’ve put up a new thread on the leadership challenge. Please direct future comments there:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/11/25/kevin-andrews-to-challenge-malcolm-turnbull/

By: Sam

Sam — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:30:36 +0000

Jim @ 51, the future of the planet will actually turn on what gets agreed internationally and what the US, China and India decide to do. Our climate policies will make a non zero contribution, and perhaps we can influence international outcomes if we are seen to be making an effort, but some perspective is required.

By: Asha Leu

Asha Leu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:27:09 +0000

Why in god’s name would anyone in their right mind want the Liberal leadership at the moment? They can’t honestly think that they have a chance of winning the election (unless Labor manages to really fuck up over the next year). Surely any prospective leaders would be far better off letting Turnbull lose this election, and then taking up the leadership when the Liberals actually have a better chance of winning.

Though the hilarious prospect of Kevin Andrews as leader does kind of make me hope he does win.

By: Mark

Mark — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:26:26 +0000

@46 – that might be so on the ETS bill, Terry but not on the leadership.

The Nats don’t have a vote for that, and Brandis was very pointed in emphasising that Turnbull had a larger majority among *Liberals*.

Those who want to chuck Turnbull out had the opportunity to do so last night, and didn’t take it? Why? Because he has a majority of the Liberal party behind him as leader. That will become clear when he defeats Andrews today.

Parliament rises for the year on Friday.

How, exactly, is he going to be toppled? By a strongly worded Wilson Tuckey email?

All this media stuff about the “killing fields of December” is all well and good, but they don’t decide the leadership on the basis of counting op/eds but by a vote of their parliamentary party.

I’ll repeat the point I made several times in the post. Turnbull now has the power to reward and punish, and the reporting of the lobbying before the meeting made it clear that his numbers people were concentrating dissidents’ minds about the long delayed reshuffled.

The Libs might of course be insane enough to topple him this afternoon, but if not, he’s got til February to re-establish his leadership, and has some weapons with which to do that.

The commentariat appear to be following the “doomed leader” script. What about the “strong leader stands up to dinosaurs in his own party and gains extra kudos” script? Or what about recognising that politics is more complex and unpredictable than a menu of ‘media narratives’ might suggest?

By: Jim James

Jim James — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:22:51 +0000

The sad thing here is that we have both Labor and Liberal fighting to see who can best trash the public interest and our collective futures while handing over cash to our worst and richest polluters in what Garnaut correctly called the biggest policy failure in Australian history. Im appalled about the commentary focusing on the ridiculous sideshow within the coalition. Frankly in the end who cares, its about the environment and liveability on this planet, stupid. I hope the coalition does block it then we have a double dissolution, then labor just might have to deal with the Greens and be forced to look at really cutting emissions. This ETS will lock in a huge load of no abatement for 20 years. Its clearly a political device to wedge the opposition, whose undies have clearly been supremely hoiked and has no focus on the real task at hand. Can the media/commentariat get over the who’s up who’s down today bollocks and actually get back to the reality of what we are dealing with? The failure of the media generally on this issue makes them culpable. Its time they stopped believing their own crap about being the fearless seekers of truth and started getting back to the facts. Any old deal is not a victory for any of us, we need to start cutting emissions and this ETS won’t do it.

By: Howard Cunningham

Howard Cunningham — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:21:26 +0000

Andrews will get 20 votes at best.

By: Paul Burns

Paul Burns — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:13:08 +0000

And meanwhile, a la Billy Hughes when he was the leader of the UAP in 1941-3 Malcolm will not call a party meeting for a spill tomorrow.Billy did hold on for a long time without a party meeting,but in the end it did him no good at all. Malcolm, history shows this tactic won’t work. It will just delay the inevitable.
Prediction: Not long before the election is called or immediately after the election is called Abbott or Hockey will challenge. Malcolm will lose the leadership. The then incumbent will fight the election, go down in flames, but remain leader after a disastrous conservative electoral loss, with all the blame being sheeted home to Malcolm. He shouldna have challenged Nelson.
At least in his retirement he can re-read Shakespeare’s Macbeth to see where he went wrong.

By: Sam

Sam — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:12:06 +0000

I wrote yesterday that Turnbull should sack the disloyal Robb.

Of course he can’t, because Robb is already a backbencher, having taken a long leave of absence because of his depression.

By: Katz

Katz — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:11:06 +0000

Kevin Andrews!

He’s strapped on his explosive vest. Shouting “God is great!” he will enter the caucus room and smite the infidel.

Today Kevin Andrews will enter paradise as a holy martyr.

By: Terry

Terry — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:10:51 +0000

Katz @34

If so, how do you explain that a majority of the parliamentary party supports Turnbull?

These numbers are premised upon Malcolm Turnbull’s maths i.e. that the whole of the Shadow Cabinet supports the position, because they are obligated by Cabinet solidarity to do so.

There are some brave assumptions there about Tony Abbott, let alone Nick Minchin.