Former Opposition frontbencher Tony Abbott has confirmed he will challenge Malcolm Turnbull in a leadership spill on Monday morning if the Liberal leader does not back down on emissions trading.
“If there’s no movement then I’ll be calling a spill for Monday morning,” Mr Abbott said today. “If it comes to it I will be calling on a challenge.”
Part of me wants to laugh at the likely prospect of the Liberal Party vote utterly destroyed under Abbott’s leadership. The hairs on the back of my neck, however, are still ever so slightly raised at the possibility that Abbott might be one disastrous campaign by Labor away from the Prime Ministership.
Update [MB]: The banter on Twitter is again fun to watch.
Update [MB]: Reports are coming in that Julie Bishop has asked Turnbull to resign, and that Joe Hockey is being touted as a compromise candidate in exchange for dropping the Libs’ support on the ETS. Meanwhile, the CPRS is crawling through the Senate at a snail’s pace.
Update [MB]: Abbott says it’s not all about him, he doesn’t have to be leader, he just wants the CPRS stopped.
Update [RM]: From Scott Ludlam’s Twitter: “WA Libs (Corrman, Cash, Back, Eggy, Adams) new amendments to give even more compo and free permits to polluters.” “let’s just call them the ‘chevron/woodside’ amendments”
Update [RM]: ABC news is reporting that “senior Liberals” are talking of a plan for a Hockey-Dutton ticket. Hasn’t Dutton lost his preselection? Mischa Schubert on Twitter: “Connie Fierravanti-Wells has quit as parl sec. Must have had her presel threatened – she spoke for the ETS deal in Tues partyroom”. The “base” seems determined to party like it’s 2007, don’t they?
Update [MB]: The Liberal party room meeting will be on Monday at 9am AEDT.
Update [MB]: Turnbull’s office is now saying the meeting will be on Tuesday morning, due to the unavailability of some members on Monday.
Robert, I just heard on the radio that if Hockey runs Abbott will withdraw. Hockey apparently will have Peter Dutton as a running mate.
Scott Prasser, a local political commentator here, said yesterday that Abbott was the last legitimate candidate left. Then we are into the B team, which must include Hockey.
Apparently Julie Bishop has tapped Mal on the shoulder and he told her where to…..
Hockey is said in several reports to be the compromise candidate. He is preparing the ground dumping the ETS.
Most polls (the ones I’ve seen anyway) put Hockey ahead of Abbott as the preferred alternative Opposition Leader.
But Hockey has made it clear that he doesn’t want the job. Obviously in the knowledge that they’re going to be wiped out at the next election regardless of who’s at the helm.
I’d love to see Abbott get the job. It would seal the fate of the Liberal party as a back of rabid right-wind dead beats for all of eternity.
We’ve also got some discussion going at GutterTrash if anyone’s interested…
http://guttertrash.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/its-war/
And on talk back radio this morning I heard the blue rinse set already complaining about the possibilty of him as a leader…. “I have voted Liberal all my life but could not vote for Abbott. He would be taking his orders from George Pell and Rome.”
Ol’ Tony would appear to open up those religious wars that you kinda hoped were long since dead.
“pack of rabid right wing dead beats”
(but I think you get the idea)
After living in NSW over the last 15 years, the hairs are standing up on the back of my neck at the prospect of a very weak opposition. I want action on climate change, but in the short term, a very weak opposition scares me as well.
Im pretty sure Abbott only just scraped in his Waringah seat the last couple of times. After weeks of coming up with a deal where are they going to go on the ETS. Turnbull & Macfarlane are very much right on the ETS issue. Australia will be left behind and it will be the coalition’s fault… Then who will really give a toss who is leading the Co-alition if there are any left.
More reports re Hockey as patsy for the right in returns for dumping ETS. Bishop has told MT to resign. These people are insane.
Update [MB]: The banter on Twitter is again fun to watch.
“The hairs on the back of my neck, however, are still ever so slightly raised at the possibility that Abbott might be one disastrous campaign by Labor away from the Prime Ministership.”
My faith in the voting populace and some sort of invisible hand of moderation has long been dashed- Tampa, Iraq, the entire Howard phenomenon, Cronulla, more asylum bashing etc etc. The possibility of a far right national leadership is both possible and quite sickening.
That being said, dominance by the fruit bats does make them an easier target for Labor, overall. But most likely this will increase the temptation for Labor to take middle ground and conservative positions to wedge the Libs. Well, that’s my first impulse response anyway…
Early yesterday on the thread “Kevin Andrews to challenge Malcolm Turnbull”@76 I posited that Peter Costello may have been enjoying a degree of schadenfreude at that time. Events since then have unfolded at a rapid (and rabid) pace. At this point I do need to make it very clear that as things stand within Liberal ranks, I do not believe or wish an inference to remain that Peter Costello would be taking any pleasure from the debacle appearing before our eyes. Right now it might be that he would like to take a step backward and review his decision a few months ago to finally step down.
As to Tony Abbott’s leadership challenge against Malcolm Turnbull (as of this morning) I also shiver at the possible enjoyment of being a spectator at the “big biffo” but when I cool down I wonder where it may lead us. I have a sense the Australian voters are being ambushed in a big way and would dearly like to ask the dissenters to produce in visible form evidence supporting their current stance.
Barry – Abbot’s actually had pretty large margins at most elections, bar 2001 when an Independent state MP managed to overtake Labor and ran Abbott down. Antony Green’s calculations of the redistribution has Warringah going from a margin of 9.5% to 8.8%, the sixth safest Liberal seat in NSW.
Tony Abbott as PM, however unlikely, gives me the shudders. Bye bye women’s rights!
Hockey must not have had enough sleep to be contemplating this. More speculating at http://vierboom.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/abbott-smarter-than-we-thought/
mediatracker: too late. He’s out of Parliament now.
I’m Catholic and Abbott wierds me out too. He’s one of ‘those’ Catholics. Fits right into the current Catholic power structure though.
Part of me worries too about Australia run by a ticket of Abbott/Bishop as a sort of holy anti Rudd/Gillard.
Brrrrrr.
Amazing though…if they had been united this week with the whole email scandal and the press and blogosphere onside they could have kicked the ALP in the teeth. Instead they have Turnbull by the arm and keep slapping him with it while whining “stop hitting yourself!”
Idiots.
tssk: the email scandal has done more damage to the Liberal Party by further reinforcing the denialists.
Question: how can the hard right prevent the CPRS getting up in the Senate, if the Liberal moderates are determined to vote for it and save the party from itself?
The other thing to consider in all this is if the Libs can change leaders in time, and scuttle the CPRS in the Senate, will they really want to face a double dissolution? Odds would have to be good that it would be on.
Update [MB]: Abbott says it’s not all about him, he doesn’t have to be leader, he just wants the CPRS stopped.
The Australian on the Hockey game.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/joe-hockey-being-lined-up-to-lead-liberals/story-e6frgczf-1225804481254
Robert 19, the Liberal moderates might not have the backbone. They have their pre-selections, future front bench positions etc, to look after. If Hockey abandons the CPRS, as is looking likely, the Lib moderates will fall into line.
@ Robert
I read something this morning that said even if the Senate votes for the ETS, it can still be sent to a committee, which would delay the vote in the Lower House where the Govt has the numbers until after Copenhagen. Can’t find the article again. There is some suggestion that a deal has been stitched up with Nick Minchin not to do this though.
“double dissolution? Odds would have to be good that it would be on.”
For this to happen, the Senate will have to reject the original bill. But that is not before the Senate, at least not today.
Rudd should forget Copenhagen and call a snap election, right now. He will win a big enough majority to be PM for life.
I know these online newspaper polls are useless but can be interesting:
Reader Poll
Emissions trading: Malcolm Turnbull v Liberal rebels
Whose stand do you back?
Turnbull – 69%
Abbott and the rebels – 31%
Total Votes: 4133
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/form.html
Deal + Minchin = deal not done. Reports this morning are suggesting Minchin won’t even agree to the division at 3:45pm. And the tweets are telling us that Liberal senators are circulating amendments in the chamber at the moment that certainly weren’t anything to do with Wong & McFarlane.
The hope out of all of this is that the Greens are left standing looking responsible, and come out of a DD election with the balance of power, and a decent ETS is finally passed sometime in 2010. A scant eighteen years after Australia formally acknowledged climate change as an issue.
“Rudd should forget Copenhagen and call a snap election, right now. He will win a big enough majority to be PM for life.”
And how exactly could he do that? He doesn’t *yet* have a trigger, does he?
Some rumour tweeting (http://twitter.com/theburgerman) that Hockey has ruled out challenging? His sanity returns? Which puts Turnbull back in the driver’s seat??
Yeah, that’s probably my favoured outcome too – new election, CPRS negotiated with Greens, such that it actually leads to emission reductions before 2033 (current one doesnt, people) , in a more realistic post-Copenhagen environment (ie with full awareness that 5% is an ABJECT JOKE and way behind play)
He can ask the governor for a regular election whenever he likes. He needs a trigger for a double dissolution.
As to why he may or may not want a DD, see Antony Green’s analysis of the electoral implications.
Whats with the liberals looking like they’ll pass the CPRS anyway? Perhaps let it pass and then run a campaign sniping about the design of the scheme headed by the sceptics who have come out today? This would allow the CPRS to get through and give the liberals the ability to differentiate themselves. Any thoughts?
Ever play that Left 4 Dead game?
The Coalition has turned into a pack of rabid zombies and Malcolm is the Omega man.
From Antony Green, re election speculation:
“The first possible date for a half-Senate election is Saturday 7 August 2010.”
The extreme right are absolute scum. Everyone should unite to destroy them. Down with Abbott and Minchin. Their days of terrorising the nation are over.
The CPRS should be buried, maybe a CPRS capture scheme could be implemented by 2011 which would be carbon neutral. It could also encompass a contingency plan to accommodate the climate denialists in the Liberal Party.
This is the Abbott who said on Radio National Brekfast on Wednesday that he wanted to see the Coalition’s CPRS views go through the Senata, and that he supported Turnbull and wanted him to lead the coalition to the next election (its all in the audio file available on the ABC site). And barely 18 hours later he resigns from the front bench and 18 hours after that he’s challenging for the leadership. Talk about a duplicitous lying toe-rag! The LNP deserve him -let them all rot in the hell of permanent opposition oblivion
Oh joy. What bliss. The mob who sent my mob to die in Vietnam at last almost totally on the ropes. What pleasure. The lower north-shore liberals who have for years in reality hid their vicious reactionary politics behind a smoke screen of petite-bourgeois politeness are exposed. Does anyone really expect anything other than a shower of shit to represent turds?
Concetta Fierravanti-Wells has now pulled the pin on her front bench possie and via Amanda Meade(@meadea)the ABC has dropped Stateline and Collectors for a special program on federal politics tonight.
Concetta Fierravanti-Wells quits as parly sec – she spoke in favour of the ETS in caucus so this looks like evidence preselections are under threat from the delusionists.
Schreck is asking Twitterers on what he should do: “Hey team re The ETS. Give me your views please on the policy and political debate. I really want your feedback.” He could be the first truly Twit PM.
Joe Hockey would never be PM if he is prepared to be Minchin and Abbott’s gimp.
Robert M said@32
I think events have overtaken this analysis. We are speaking of annihilation and a 55-style split with colours reversed. In a situation like that, the ALP won’t need the Greens in the senate to do as they please because they will have the numbers in their own right and the Greens and Libs are not going to be able to block together on any matter anyway.
That’s way too good an opportunity for the ALP to pass on. Even Rees in NSW might think his chances in 2011 have now improved.
Again, Abbott’s Hockey ploy — encouraging Hockey to run as the compromise candidate — demonstrates just how conscious Abbott is of the electorate’s low esteem for the Right.
The Liberal Right survives only as a parasite that subsists on the vestigial humanity of their centrist colleagues.
The Liberal Right are political tape-worms.
Assuming the preponderance of scientific evidence is right, it is critical that larger countries such as the USA and China drastically cut their emissions. Whether or not Australia reduces its emissions don’t amount to a hill of beans, but we can have an influence on the big-polluting countries by being one of the first to adopt an emission reduction scheme, even if it’s a bad one.
That is why I think it is important that Australia has passed it’s CPRS before going to Copenhagen. By contrast, if a rich country like Australia won’t even make a token commitment unless everybody else does, we’re providing a whole lot of excuse for the big polluting countries to do nothing. I think it possible that if the Abbots and Minchins get their way, Australia’s lack of moral leadership could have profound consequences for the Earth’s future climate.
So while a Liberal party implosion would normally be a cause for joy, I do worry about this one. Particularly if the tales of thousands of angry emails demanding ETS opposition have any basis in reality.
@David_Speers: Turnbull won’t go. His supporters want Hockey. Hockey won’t challenge. But Hockey will run if vacancy. hmmm
Just on a practical note (though this isn’t the flavour of the day), how is the Senate supposed to work through several pages of amendments by 3.45pm?
Minister Wong made the point in the Senate around 10am today that it had taken about 9 hours to deal with just 3 of the proposed amendments.
I’ve played Left 4 Dead. For those not in the now it’s a co-operative shooting game with four vs a horde of zombies. And as a group you need to work together. Go off and do your own thing and you are doomed. Much like the current Lib’s seem to be.
And hang on…The Collectors is cancelled tonight? Nooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!
Now I’m really annoyed with the Libs!
#48 – so Republican fillibusting tactics are also now part of the Coalition’s strategies for proving they are a viable alterative government…. where in god’s name are these people getting trained? I’m being continually gobsmacked at how many of the words falling out of coalition members’ mouths are profoundly disconnected from the reality the average voter lives in.
“fillibusting”
nuh, that’s Tony Abbott, he’s always tryin’ to bust them fillies
(womyns)
Blanket apologies for my current inability to spell. Am attempting to work productively whilst watching the tweets, blogs, news sites – haven’t had this much fun since…since…. bless ‘em.
Just for interest’s sake a slight diversion. From this picture in the Australian today, what kind of car does Hockey drive?
http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2009/11/27/1225804/530801-joe-hockey.jpg
A Delorean.
(actually I think it’s a Saab or a Peugeot)
A wee red pedal car would be more appropriate under the circumstances.
When this came up on my tab bar: Abbott to stand on M- : I immediately thought Moon.
Current campaign strategy
Four words
“Malcolm Turnbull – Merchant Banker”
Backup campaign strategy
Two words
“Tony Abbott”
The lack of a strong, or even non-humour-inspiring opposition is a worry though.
no wuzz Bernice
any excuse to join in the fun
Dotty: It appears to be a New Mini (which is actually made by BMW, by the way):
Jenny @ 46
Yes me too, as I asked before, what is it with these thousands of email stories and the ramping up of outrage on talk back a month ago?
Call me naive but really….. is this cultural war on an another level. Are we following the US in political debate?
Why Rudd needs the CPRS to be passed: http://bit.ly/8I7ubl
Update [MB]: The Liberal party room meeting will be on Monday at 9am AEDT.
Oh no. What is Joe Hockey thinking?
Australian editorial seemed sane today:
“MALCOLM Turnbull is right when he says no responsible party in the 21st century can take no action on climate change.”
Seven News Poll: How would you vote at the next federal election.
30% Labor;
8% Liberal – if it supports carbon tax;
42% Liberal – if it doesn’t support a carbon tax
I’ve been watching Penny Wong in the Senate nd she just looks exhausted.
Yep, Frankie – and I just voted 3 times in a row. It just shows how meaningless it is.
Robert at #32 said:
“He [Rudd] can ask the governor for a regular election whenever he likes. He needs a trigger for a double dissolution.”
Now that first sentence raises an interesting scenario.
I wonder what the pro’s and con’s of that mihjt be as compared to the alternatives.
Cos contrary to the optimism of many I’m not absolutely convinced that a DD would be such a good thing for the ALP or that a landslide is inevitable.
A week is a long time in politics and lets not forget that if the Libs do get a new face shortly the mass media will be giving same an extended honeymoon phase complete with phrases like “a new direction/fresh start/revitalized/ a breath of fresh air/reunited” and similar.
The wackaloons are not just confined to the COALition you know, there is more than a few in our media.
But Hannah’s Dad where would they hide the Denialists?
It seems to me there’s a bit of wishful thinking going on about the electoral implications of all this, particularly if the CPRS gets voted down. While it’s true that the Libs look like a rabble right now, it’s entirely possible they will unite behind a conservative if he (I’m presuming it will be a ‘he’) wins a spill. The moderates who’ve supported Turnbull’s position may well fall in line under a new leader.
The fact is, there are good reasons to suppose that an election fought on climate change policy won’t necessarily be to Labor’s and the Greens’ advantage.
There’s plenty of evidence that:
most voters want something done about climate change BUT:
- they are confused about the CPRS, and
- they are worried about their jobs, incomes, etc.
That is a sound basis for a smart conservative-led coalition to run a scare campaign against Labor climate policy. It won’t win them the election, but it certainly doesn’t presage the sort of wipeout some are predicting. They could get some traction from it.
And there’s your problem right there…
Here is something a little more suggestive than a media poll.
Morgan today.
ALP 58.5
COAL 41.5
i may be wrong, but if this does go to the vote on monday doesn’t turnbull only need 7 of his party to stay faithful for the bill to pass?
even with all the turmoil with the libs, that doesn’t sound like an impossible task.
Courier Mail has a web poll on “who should lead the Liberal Party”. Out of 14000 votes currently, Turnbull leads with 29%, Sharman Stone (I didn’t even know who that is) is in second place with 26%, Kevin Andrews third with 21%, Hockey is at 11% and Abbott at 5% (and Robb, Bishop, Pyne, Dutton make up the rear at 1% or less).
The correct path for the Lib’s is obvious. Tim Blair with a front becnh made up of Ackerman and Bolt. They’d clean up.
How about Rick Astley?
patrickg@71: Heh. Touche.
Did Abetz just blame Canada? lol
Ian McFarlane just said on ABC Radio that’s it’s possible there won’t be a meeting on Monday as a few members will not be able to get back to Canberra (one’s going into hospital apparently).
Robert Merkel @32, “He can ask the governor for a regular election whenever he likes. He needs a trigger for a double dissolution.”
No, he can’t. The writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued until one year before the end of the current term. The current term ends on 30 June 2011; one year before then is 30 June 2010; the earliest possible date for a non-double dissolution election is therefore in August 2010.
It’s a roller Dotty Daphon@53.
See frontview below
http://www.joe-ks.com/images/JoesCar.jpg
For Rudd to call a DD now, even if he had a trigger, would be as insane as what is currently happening to the Liberals, imo. The electorate would be mighty huffed at having to vote 12 months before an election is due. I have the feeling that Rudd ruled that sort of stuff out during 2007.
Jenny @46, the rumour mill has been running hot on this theme, but I have my doubts. I reckon Godwin Grech has probably been firing them off.
They’re barely capable of catching a cold, Bernice and judging by this fiasco their collective IQ is a negative number.
Definition of an oxymoron.
For a brain transplant, presumably
Does all this mean Julie Bishop’s political career has peaked?
as attractive an spectator sport, watching the libs blow themselves up is definitely up there with 5 days of test cricket but alas I think I might go have a few drinks instead. if on the otherhand I thought the cprs actually did anything other than turn more public funds over to the private sector and collect a bit of collateral damage in the form of a split opposition I might be persuaded to spend another night in front of the giggle box.
Enjoy the show and don’t eat too much popcorn!
MItchell Porter @74, that’s the most frightening bit of news I’ve heard in a while. Sharman Stone is the Shadow Immigration Minister. She’s a walking dog whistle, and I start twitching at the mere sound of her name. She gets 26% as preferred leader in a Courier Mail poll? There’s your Hansonite contingent.
joe2: have a closer look at the photo Dotty linked to, and specifically the car/politician ratio implied by the photo.
spoilsport = R.M.
And the spill will now be….
9am Tuesday. Tuesday, not Monday. Too many pollies away on Monday.
Update [MB]: Turnbull’s office is now saying the meeting will be on Tuesday morning, due to the unavailability of some members on Monday.
Turnbull will never, ever stand down of his own accord. He could be his only supporter and he would still not let go of the leadership until his fingers get prised off it by the collective efforts of the rest of the Liberals and intervention from Yahweh.
And Hockey doesn’t seem likely to stand unless Turnbull steps down; in a three-way race between Hockey, Turnbull and Abbott the latter would get a plurality from a split moderate vote, and if Turnbull were to come second he’d be clobbered in the runoff.
So Abbott is the only one crazy-brave enough to run against an incumbent who doesn’t want to be pushed, which may make him leader by default.
Two-party systems are normally extraordinarily resilient, and no 2PS is stronger than Australia’s; do you realise that in every election since 1910 ONE party outside Labor or the Coalition (the Democrats) has gained more than 10% of the vote for the lower house? And that was ONCE, in 1990. So that means that when Abbott lines up against Rudd he can count on at least 40% of the primary vote, and at least 45% of the 2PP.
So every second person you meet thinks Tony Abbott would be a better PM than Kevin Rudd. They’ll be driving your taxis and flying your planes and operating on you if you get sick. My advice: don’t get sick or travel.
Hockey’s tactics are interesting.
He has refused to stand at leader unless Turnbull stands down. Yet he knows that Turnbull will refuse to stand down.
Hockey is daring the Right to run their own candidate.
However it would appear that the right (those political tapeworms) don’t have a credible candidate of their own.
Hockey would appear to be daring the Right to make idiots of themselves. Perhaps, biding his time, Hockey may move against Turnbull at a more propitious time. Or then again maybe Hockey is trying to destroy the Right in his own way.
So, come the spill, will the tapeworms throw Kevin Andrews into the fray one more time?
I guess Hockey has enough sense not to be the leader now. Abbott can lose the election and then he can get the job next. I wonder when they’ll run out of leaders.
BlackMage: “in a three-way race between Hockey, Turnbull and Abbott the latter would get a plurality from a split moderate vote,…”
Hang on, are you saying Abbott is a moderate?? Or merely supported by moderates?
Fine, if Viscount Turnbull goes they will ALREADY have run out of leaders. Suppose Mr Dutton is elected deputy leader. Then Labor an defeat the Deputy next time (after defeating the Leader last time).
Doesn’t that nice Mr Hockey have to give some more speeches (“In Defence of Fresh Air” etc.) before he can be elected leader?
A song for Eric of lower Oz
to the tune of ‘If I onlyhad a Brain,’
“I could cogitate for hours,
and imagine future powers,
to the world I would explain;
“Our planet can be rescued,
when we change our attitude,”
If I only had a brain.
John Ward
Gordon
62921211
Together with the Croatian Ustasha, Hungarian Arrow Cross, Romanian Iron Guard, the SS controlled Slovenian militia. Groups derived from former members of these were organised with the tacit support of the Menzies and successive Liberal governments. With the deposed regimes of occupied Europe now represented in the Liberal Party, pro-Nazis held significant power over preselection of Liberal Parliamentary candidates.
Urbanchich came to Australia after WWII he then found a comfortable place in the bosom of the Liberal Party, ever happy to embrace, as “good anti-communists”, from the collapse of the fascist Axis. In the 70s he (Urbanchich) headed the “Liberal Ethnic Council”. His faction known as the Uglies, control up to 30 per cent of the Liberal Party State Council votes and are the power base of Tony Abbot, Bronwyn Bishop, Philip Ruddick, John Howard and others.
Perhaps the Nazi history in our conservative parties explains the present 9,000 Volt and razor wire fences around our concentration camps, (sorry, detention centres), the racial purity tensions in our immigration department and policies and the ever present need to have a strong Fuehrer.
Abbott will be lucky to get as many votes as Kevin Andrews. This looks like the week that will make Turnbull. Could it be possible that the journosphere has the wrong end of the stick, perhaps?
I’m inclined to agree, AE.
And to extend the consideration of conspiracy one step further, could Turnbull and Hockey be acting in concert over this wedging of the Liberal Right?
You’d be crazy to rule it out, Katz. Recent appearances by Abbott and Minchin suggest those once supremely smug roosters are a bit rattled and pondering life as feather-dusters.
That wise observer, Peter Van Onselen, seemed to be suggesting on Lateline that Hockey could unify the Libs by being Minchin’s sock puppet.
@95 – Andrew – journosphere being wrong? Who’d a thunk it?
Yeah Joe, just become the plaything of your ideological opponents, accept their insane demands to turn this into a deniers vs EcoRudd election and you can run the party, maaaayte…
anyway – keep on sending those emails of outrage, peoples.
Minchin, who got the internet at own his house last weekend, is getting mighty excited by the size of his inbox.
Type : ‘Dear Nick – I am a life-long Liberal vote – I am hardcore base.
I am disgsuted by Mr Turnbull – that trendy inner-city lawyer – selling his soul to the communists. Nick, please destroy the Liberal Party, it’s the only way to save it, to save God and to save our non-negotiable way of life.”
sign with a false name – send – and repeat
Dear Mr. The Hon. Nick Minchin SENATOR
I am a representativ e of the First Fincanciary Bank of Nigeria.. We are recently in the receipt of 10,235,521.00 votes left to an account by the now deceased PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA of the DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DRC) you have been selected on your most excellent c reditworthyness to recieve a trainsfer of said votes redeemable immediatately….
Hehe. Probs more literate and coherent than a lot of what they’ve been receiving!
Yes Andrew E – my own feeling is that Turnbull will win and that the Howard era also-rans will prove they are an evolutionary dead end. And disproportionately lose their seats in 2010; reinforcing the trend.
Andrew E@#98 Nov 27th, 2009 at 11:00 pm said:
ROFLOL
Leinad@#101 Nov 27th, 2009 at 11:15 pm said:
I predict that Hockey will NOT stand for leader of the LP. I dont think he fancies sipping delusionist Kool Aid from the post-Turnbull LP’s poisoned chalice. It’s way to early to sing out Hey Joe…
I have repeatedly predicted that Turnbull will prevail in both ETS policy and LP leadership politics. The delusionists have the whole weekend to ruefully regret last weeks bender. It only needs a dozen or so to start having buyers remorse when a candidate like Tony Abbot is on offer.
The ALP would prefer to take a flawed ETS to Copenhagen rather than have a Double Dissolution. That would mean negotiating with the Greens. They would prefer to negotiate with the Browns as this only costs money. Negotiating with the Greens costs votes.
The compromise ETS Bill will then pass with many, but not enough, L/NP defections.
Assuming that’s correct (and how couldn’t it be when Jack and I agree on something?) I’m guessing its too much to hope for that the commentariat would learn something from it and pay a litte more attention to how the debate plays outside their warrens in C-town.
Well, If the Abbot does stand on Monday, the theme song is ready to GO .
Yes, I’ve been waiting a looong time to use that link.
Yesterday one of the regulars here implied that I might be a right wing troll, due to my opposition to the current CPRS and my suggestion that people write in to support the denier wing of the Liberals in blocking it. The implication was silly of course but later I heard Andrew Bolt speaking to PM last night. He was his usual unhinged self, contradicting himself at least once and spewing nonsense but then he said something quite interesting:
Turnbull, as is well known was once mooted as an ALP prospect and with his massive ego would have been smarting at being wedged by Howard on the Republican campaign. In some parts of the blogosphere Turnbull is seen as more ALP than Liberal. Wouldn’t it be delicious if the two were working together to rtear the party in half? In practice, Andrew and I are advocating the Liberals pursue the same policy, and I’m doing it in part so as to bring about the demise of the coalition.
For years I’ve felt nothing but disgust for Bolt, and have sneerted at Turnbull but now I have a question mark.
Note: I can’t take full credit for this. I must give Hubby his due for prompting me on Bolt being an ALP troll.
Who is going to be in Turnbull’s shadow cabinet on Wednesday?
Meanwhile, Tony Abbott has gone into intensive training for the looming struggle.
Kind of girding his loins for the job at hand.
“Hey Aidan!”
Senator Abetz (for it is he) “Yes?”
“Awfully good of you to throw a grenade at the Christmas party!”
Senator Abetz, “Ah, don’t minchin it! Happy to help.”
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Stalin – Menzies
Khrushchev – Fraser
Brezhnev – Howard
Kosygin – Costello
Andropov – Minchin
Gorbachev -Turnbull
Brendon: who cares?
In 1996, had you heard of anybody on the Liberal/National front bench apart from Howard before they actually took office?
Can you seriously make the case that the Liberals will be weaker without the Periclean presences of Stephen Bushby and Sophie Mirabella? Me neither. If I was getting ahead of myself I’d argue that it was an Augean-style cleanout, good riddance to bad rubbish.
Tony Abbott has not laid a glove on Labor – Jenny Macklin should have been an ex-Minister by now, she’s useless. Stephen Conroy’s war against Telstra is starting to come apart, and Minchin hasn’t laid a glove on him either. So much for the feared attack dogs of the Liberal right.
FIADM @ 110: I figured this out two days ago:
Yep, I’m with those above thinking that Turnbull will win. His liabilities are his strengths this time around.
Leinad@#108 Nov 28th, 2009 at 4:33 pm said:
The MSM commentariat feed off the horse-race narrative of politics, based on a specious he-said, she-said form of balance spiced up with some agenda-driven insider sourcing.
Of course leadership contests, which play to human beings gossipy obsession with high-status positions, completely swamp all broader considerations of politics, let alone policy. Hence we have the spectacle of Peter van Onselen, once a good political scientist now rapidly degenerating to hack.
To get ahead of the curve the competent analyst needs to crunch numbers or at least do some Back of the Envelope calculations and interpret them with a healthy dose of standard theory. He also needs to make predictions and constantly review them in the light of evidence. This just does not make for good copy or feed the inflated egos of by-lined leaders.
The delusionist blogitariat gets the worst of both worlds since it relies on retailed conspiracy theories to stoke the fires of public interest, together with a completely bogus form of science to add a thin veneer of respectability.
But it obviously sells, going by the meteoric career of Comrade Bolt and his grass roots revolt.
“Tony Abbott has not laid a glove on Labor – Jenny Macklin should have been an ex-Minister by now, she’s useless.”
To be fair to Tony she stole all his creepy ideas.
The Blue Monday cassock remix would totally suit Katz’s mortification vid.
Do you recon Tony would get this? Or is he another ALP troll DagFran?
Andrew E,
In 1996, Howard was about to get them into office. Whoever wins on Tuesday is not about to get anybody into office.
I don’t care. Just wondering, is all. And its just as interesting as who won’t be in. Like all the people that left, for starters. Turnbull has never struck me as the forgiving kind.
But either way, who ever wins will probably wish they didn’t about a week later.
I want to see Minchin win it. It would be like putting Karl Rove in the spotlight.
OK CS@110
I missed your post from two days ago but as you said it first I suppose it’s right for you to claim IP on Bolt as an a-p. I’m going to claim for Turnbull working in concert with him though.
Bottoms up people: ThiS iS (Liberal Party) hisTorY iN The MaKinG!!! lol
According to Kevin Andrews on MTP, he’s still in the leadership contest and as a denier [vigorous nodding as the question was put to him] believes they have the overwhelming majority of voters on side. [Galaxy poll] Outright laughter by the panel not shown.