Comments on: Why Rudd needs the CPRS to be passed

By: Mark

Mark — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 03:01:42 +0000

Agreed, patrickg.

Paul – click on the help page on Twitter – there’s a useful little video tutorial on how it all works.

By: patrickg

patrickg — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:37:39 +0000

I think any talk of a [meaningful] split is pretty high atmosphere stuff. Those liberals (and people in the Labor party just as much) know which side their bread – and more importantly, Austrlia’s democracy – is buttered on: major parties are almost criminally advantaged at all stages of the democratic process here. Sure, you get the odd outlier, but those are people swimming against the stream. Anyone with a shred of political nous would be aware that splitting would blow their chances to oblivion.

By: Paul Burns

Paul Burns — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:11:57 +0000

Twitted #spill too. Fsascinating. Am registered on Twitter now but I’m buggered if I can work out how to make a comment.
(Eats words with no regret about being anti-Twitter.)

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:37:30 +0000

New thread on the poll:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/11/28/newspoll-coalition-wipeout-in-cities-if-they-go-down-denialist-road/

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:25:59 +0000

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/liberals-facing-election-rout/story-e6frgczf-1225804771480

Very interesting.

I’m with you. I’d like to wait and see what folks like Possum say about the poll, but it may well have an impact on the Liberal MPs’ thinking. If not the Senators. They seem mostly mad. But then most don’t have to worry about elections.

Those numbers are a lot higher for Coalition support for the CPRS than I’d expected. I’ll have to stop listening to the media!

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:22:40 +0000

Actually, LO, my Crikey subscription ran out today and I didn’t have time to renew it!

I’m not too sure about a realignment/split just yet. They need another election defeat, first, I think, and someone with real passion to lead it. The default position probably is to paper over the cracks and stumble towards defeat. It could get interesting if Turnbull loses, though.

I’ve been writing another post, but I’ll have a look at the Newspoll story now.

By: Labor Outsider

Labor Outsider — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:49:31 +0000

See Geoffrey Barker’s piece in Crikey for an example. It is made more interesting in that Barker is aligned with the liberal wing of the Liberal party…

By: Labor Outsider

Labor Outsider — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:46:25 +0000

That is probably true Mark, but I think that Labor have an advantage in that they have a clear, consistent line to run about the approach they are taking and lots of giveaways to satisfy those thinking about the issue through the hip-pocket. I just cannot see any scenario now where the Libs will have a credible line of attack, given everything that has taken place in recent weeks.

I also notice that more than a few commentators have started to speculate about a realignment of the conservative side of politics, which we touched on in a thread a few weeks back. Not sure that is likely (a split that is), but if Abbott won a spill, or Hockey ended up leader and then undermined as Turnbull has, it would be interesting to see whether the liberal Liberals thought it worth the risk of breaking away (or the conservatives did if Hockey became leader and also wanted to eventually pass the CPRS or a variant of it).

Certainly fascinating to think about what the ramifactions of such a split would be…

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:19:03 +0000

Thanks for the heads up, LO. I’ll have a look in a sec. My initial comment would be that the CPRS is still not well understood generally – and we’re actually into the summer torpor season where few but us political junkies are paying much attention to all this. Peter Hartcher did have a point on Lateline last night, though, when he said that Rudd had boxed the Libs (and Greens) into his frame on the ETS, but hadn’t made the case effectively to the public.

I’d also suggest that in these situations, focus group research often gives a better picture than quant polls, as it enables an in depth preview of how particular themes and messages may play in advance of when battle is actually joined, as it were.

By: Labor Outsider

Labor Outsider — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:05:12 +0000

Mark, have you seen the analysis of Newspoll over at the Australian suggesting that rejecting the CPRS is likely to be very damaging to the coalition vote in metropolitan marginal seats? It will be interesting to see whether people like Possum agree with their interpretation of the data…