Comments on: Higgins by-election (and Bradfield by-election)

By: Peterc

Peterc — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 11:30:19 +0000

Well, the Liberals held both seats, no great surprise there, but by a slightly bigger margin that I thought they would get.

I handed out the Vote Climate candidate scorecard at the Presbyterian Church, Wattletree Road. Many voters took it. One Liberal HTVer person seemed a bit miffed at the Vote Climate presence – he kept calling me “a green” and “you lot” – despite my blue T shirt.

I politely explained about the Climate Network and Action Groups and why they rated the Liberal candidate Kelly O’Dwyer so low on climate change.

I think just handing out the Vote Climate cards had a big impact. Bean counters in all political parties tend to analyse trends down to the booth level. The Liberal vote was down between 2% and 3% at booths were Vote Climate leaflets were handed out.

I think it was a pity there wasn’t more of a swing against the Liberals – but this indicates to me that a way to get a climate message through to many voters is when they will be personally impacted – hobby farms burnt in bushfires, gardens dying due to water restrictions, holiday house values plummeting as sea levels rise, rates rising etc.

They don’t seem tuned into or interested in the nonsense in Canberra.

By: jo

jo — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:43:15 +0000

Hey Rebekka, sorry been caught up in other stuff. You must have seen the figures at the aec site by now. The postals nearly 5900 of 8700 counted as of today, turnout now at 75%. Should have factored in the 3/4 lib postal from last time when looking at the 2PP the other night, but 2am posts…

Have you already put something up, pls. let us know.

Superb Liam. Candy Shop. I registered under the loony/tragic ‘personal user’ option.

Fran/wbb – sorry I didn’t mean explain the workings of the ETS – I’m meant KISSing the voters, only saw the Tele front page this morning..(haven’t managed anything else today) and there was a full colour pic of the planet with pledge from Kevvie:

“Families will pay little or nothing for Labor’s emissions trading scheme, PM Kevin Rudd has pledged, saying low-income families will be fully compensated.

A big sloppy kiss and bear-hug.

By: Liam

Liam — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 05:03:47 +0000

Oh yeah no question Izquierdista. The AES is the heavyweight settler of almost any current political stoush if you use it right.

By: Glass 2/3rds Full

Glass 2/3rds Full — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 05:01:50 +0000

67.3% would consider it!
Cool resource.

By: Liam

Liam — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 03:32:55 +0000

Note also that in that variable B.16 the Greens had the highest number of people of any Party who reported they’d “never” vote for them (32.7% against 19.6% ALP, 23.8% Liberal, 27.2% Nat, 31% another Party incl. One Nation), and in B.18 rank highest for “Strongly Dislike”.
That I had not expected, even as a partisan of years of Labor-Green battles in the Sydney Inner West.

By: Rebekka

Rebekka — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:08:35 +0000

Thanks Liam, I’ve registered

By: Liam

Liam — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 01:11:43 +0000

Rebekka, it's here under Politics / Election and Campaign Studies / Australia Electoral Study 2007. But you'll need a username to look at the variables in that detail. (It's B.16 through B.18).

By: Rebekka

Rebekka — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:51:45 +0000

Geoff, have you got a link to that research by any chance?

By: Paul Norton

Paul Norton — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:49:50 +0000

Geoff #156, thanks for the empirical political science. It’s the sort of thing we need more of in discussions like this.

By: Geoff Robinson

Geoff Robinson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:46:33 +0000

In the Australian Election Survey 18% of 2007 Labor voters said they would never vote for the Greens.That pretty much explains the result in both seats.