<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Parsing the polls: Just how strong is Labor&#039;s lead, really?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/</link>
	<description>Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 14 Feb 2012 11:27:53 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ginja</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113022</link>
		<dc:creator>Ginja</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2010 08:09:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113022</guid>
		<description>I&#039;d add one more thing: in 2007 there were no doubt many voters who lean Liberal who felt an attachment to Howard and were reluctant to turf out a Liberal government.

Will the same level of loyalty be shown to a shambles of an oppostion?  I have my doubts.

I think there would be a lot of tradies out there who have been saying to themselves, &quot;I&#039;m not usually a fan of Labor, but I can&#039;t deny that the stimulus kept my business/industry going and food on the table&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d add one more thing: in 2007 there were no doubt many voters who lean Liberal who felt an attachment to Howard and were reluctant to turf out a Liberal government.</p>
<p>Will the same level of loyalty be shown to a shambles of an oppostion?  I have my doubts.</p>
<p>I think there would be a lot of tradies out there who have been saying to themselves, &#8220;I&#8217;m not usually a fan of Labor, but I can&#8217;t deny that the stimulus kept my business/industry going and food on the table&#8221;.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113021</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 11:40:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113021</guid>
		<description>And I&#039;m sure he&#039;ll be professing his loyalty on his blog and on Twitter! ;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And I&#8217;m sure he&#8217;ll be professing his loyalty on his blog and on Twitter! <img src='http://larvatusprodeo.net/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Terry</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113020</link>
		<dc:creator>Terry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 11:31:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113020</guid>
		<description>If Abbott is as shaky as is being predicted, eyes will start to turn to the humble member for Wentworth sitting on the backbench, who I am sure harbours no ill feelings towards the leader and his frontbench colleagues.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If Abbott is as shaky as is being predicted, eyes will start to turn to the humble member for Wentworth sitting on the backbench, who I am sure harbours no ill feelings towards the leader and his frontbench colleagues.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113019</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 08:11:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113019</guid>
		<description>@22 - sure, but elections don&#039;t normally turn on whether FOI isn&#039;t really FOI, etc.

@23 - it&#039;s not outside the realms of possibility!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@22 &#8211; sure, but elections don&#8217;t normally turn on whether FOI isn&#8217;t really FOI, etc.</p>
<p>@23 &#8211; it&#8217;s not outside the realms of possibility!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Ginja</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113018</link>
		<dc:creator>Ginja</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 07:40:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113018</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ll just add a contrarian thought: the polls understate Labor&#039;s lead.  That is, when voters enter the voting booth and are confronted with the stark choice of Rudd or Abbott, they will flee en masse to Rudd.

It&#039;s as plausible as any other prediction in these strange times.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ll just add a contrarian thought: the polls understate Labor&#8217;s lead.  That is, when voters enter the voting booth and are confronted with the stark choice of Rudd or Abbott, they will flee en masse to Rudd.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s as plausible as any other prediction in these strange times.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: codger</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113017</link>
		<dc:creator>codger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jan 2010 02:14:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113017</guid>
		<description>Mark, yes the polls bus and doom tests are all good but otoh some seasoned salts see the &quot;predictable&quot; micro man still dudding along...

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-options-on-health-costs-are-alarmist-and-misleading-20100126-mw8a.html

Ross Gittins

‘Rudd&#039;s analysis is alarmist and highly misleading…And since, for good reason, we pay for our healthcare mainly via the public purse, this will involve higher taxes. Simple as that… Pity Rudd lacks the courage to tell us so.’

Paul Toohey 	Commander relieved of post for attack on brass, PM

January 30, 2010 12:00AM Herald Sun

‘Lieutenant Commander Brett Westcott was now on &quot;other duties&quot;… Norcom had no clear idea of what was to become of the asylum seekers… Westcott is also said to have lashed out at the Prime Minister and Cabinet for failing to make a decision on the fate of SIEV36… Even though it was Government policy that all passengers on detained vessels should be sent for processing at Christmas Island, Lt-Cdr Westcott believed the fate of each individual vessel was still decided at the highest levels of government… He is listed to give evidence at a Darwin coronial inquiry next week.’

The hun link is down but the curious snail link is still up following defence&#039;s &#039;all tosh&#039; media release; on past form I&#039;d rather row in Paul&#039;s canoe. We shall see.

Lex Hall and Jamie Walker 	Navy errors blamed for fire on SIEV 36
January 26, 2010 12:00AM The Oz

‘When SIEV 36 was initially boarded by a party from the Albany, &quot;no final decision&quot; had been made about how those on board were to be handled, Mr Walsh said in his opening address.’

Mike Steketee	Labours in the ministry of truth

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/labours-in-the-ministry-of-truth/story-e6frg6zo-1225824638788

‘Without a huge shift in the bureaucratic culture, the new Australian legislation will be little more than a political ornament, providing more ammunition for Tony Abbott to claim that the Rudd government is all talk and no action.’

Penny’s Air Kevin sandwich and how her department ‘glad’ wraps it in the name of transparency.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mark, yes the polls bus and doom tests are all good but otoh some seasoned salts see the &#8220;predictable&#8221; micro man still dudding along&#8230;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-options-on-health-costs-are-alarmist-and-misleading-20100126-mw8a.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-options-on-health-costs-are-alarmist-and-misleading-20100126-mw8a.html</a></p>
<p>Ross Gittins</p>
<p>‘Rudd&#8217;s analysis is alarmist and highly misleading…And since, for good reason, we pay for our healthcare mainly via the public purse, this will involve higher taxes. Simple as that… Pity Rudd lacks the courage to tell us so.’</p>
<p>Paul Toohey 	Commander relieved of post for attack on brass, PM</p>
<p>January 30, 2010 12:00AM Herald Sun</p>
<p>‘Lieutenant Commander Brett Westcott was now on &#8220;other duties&#8221;… Norcom had no clear idea of what was to become of the asylum seekers… Westcott is also said to have lashed out at the Prime Minister and Cabinet for failing to make a decision on the fate of SIEV36… Even though it was Government policy that all passengers on detained vessels should be sent for processing at Christmas Island, Lt-Cdr Westcott believed the fate of each individual vessel was still decided at the highest levels of government… He is listed to give evidence at a Darwin coronial inquiry next week.’</p>
<p>The hun link is down but the curious snail link is still up following defence&#8217;s &#8216;all tosh&#8217; media release; on past form I&#8217;d rather row in Paul&#8217;s canoe. We shall see.</p>
<p>Lex Hall and Jamie Walker 	Navy errors blamed for fire on SIEV 36<br />
January 26, 2010 12:00AM The Oz</p>
<p>‘When SIEV 36 was initially boarded by a party from the Albany, &#8220;no final decision&#8221; had been made about how those on board were to be handled, Mr Walsh said in his opening address.’</p>
<p>Mike Steketee	Labours in the ministry of truth</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/labours-in-the-ministry-of-truth/story-e6frg6zo-1225824638788" rel="nofollow">http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/labours-in-the-ministry-of-truth/story-e6frg6zo-1225824638788</a></p>
<p>‘Without a huge shift in the bureaucratic culture, the new Australian legislation will be little more than a political ornament, providing more ammunition for Tony Abbott to claim that the Rudd government is all talk and no action.’</p>
<p>Penny’s Air Kevin sandwich and how her department ‘glad’ wraps it in the name of transparency.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113016</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jan 2010 04:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113016</guid>
		<description>I also think Peter Hartcher is onto something with this:

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/reassuring-rudd-artfully-morphs-into-howard-lite-20100129-n403.html

Political journalists and commentators like a touch of unpredictably and biffo in political leaders, but voters don&#039;t. The comparison of Latham with Abbott is telling. If there&#039;s continued bad economic news overseas, particularly, people aren&#039;t going to be much inclined to go with someone &quot;unpredictable&quot;. I wouldn&#039;t be underestimating how effective Rudd&#039;s narrative about saving Australia from economic doom will be.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I also think Peter Hartcher is onto something with this:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/reassuring-rudd-artfully-morphs-into-howard-lite-20100129-n403.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/reassuring-rudd-artfully-morphs-into-howard-lite-20100129-n403.html</a></p>
<p>Political journalists and commentators like a touch of unpredictably and biffo in political leaders, but voters don&#8217;t. The comparison of Latham with Abbott is telling. If there&#8217;s continued bad economic news overseas, particularly, people aren&#8217;t going to be much inclined to go with someone &#8220;unpredictable&#8221;. I wouldn&#8217;t be underestimating how effective Rudd&#8217;s narrative about saving Australia from economic doom will be.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113015</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jan 2010 04:07:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113015</guid>
		<description>@18 - I&#039;d venture the guess, Rob, that&#039;s it&#039;s going to prove to be a big political win for the government.

It passed my &#039;hearing people talk about it with interest&#039; on the bus test yesterday!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@18 &#8211; I&#8217;d venture the guess, Rob, that&#8217;s it&#8217;s going to prove to be a big political win for the government.</p>
<p>It passed my &#8216;hearing people talk about it with interest&#8217; on the bus test yesterday!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Andrew E</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113014</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew E</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jan 2010 21:50:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113014</guid>
		<description>Labor&#039;s poll majority is very soft, it&#039;s just that neither the Libs nor the Greens can hit them where it hurts.

The best thing that could happen to the CPRS legislation is that it goes to committee and gets faffed to death. Labor has two options then: &quot;We tried&quot; with goodwill intact thanks to economic performance, and the intact Garnaut report. All the Libs will have is one of those symbolic victories that get &quot;insiders&quot; all hot and bothered but which fails to translate into any net changed votes.

Second-best would be if Labor + Greens + Senators Troeth &amp; Boyce get it through quickly, the reality becomes much less scary than first thought - like the GST. What gets me about these so-called conservatives is that they have no sense of history. Labor could follow the Howard-Costello playbook in getting the CPRS through like the GST to the very letter and nobody in the Coalition, not Abbott or Minchin or anyone else, could do a damn thing about it. Ergh, don&#039;t get me started.

The constitutional provision about failing to pass has no bearing on the conduct of an election campaign - look at Hawke in 1984.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Labor&#8217;s poll majority is very soft, it&#8217;s just that neither the Libs nor the Greens can hit them where it hurts.</p>
<p>The best thing that could happen to the CPRS legislation is that it goes to committee and gets faffed to death. Labor has two options then: &#8220;We tried&#8221; with goodwill intact thanks to economic performance, and the intact Garnaut report. All the Libs will have is one of those symbolic victories that get &#8220;insiders&#8221; all hot and bothered but which fails to translate into any net changed votes.</p>
<p>Second-best would be if Labor + Greens + Senators Troeth &amp; Boyce get it through quickly, the reality becomes much less scary than first thought &#8211; like the GST. What gets me about these so-called conservatives is that they have no sense of history. Labor could follow the Howard-Costello playbook in getting the CPRS through like the GST to the very letter and nobody in the Coalition, not Abbott or Minchin or anyone else, could do a damn thing about it. Ergh, don&#8217;t get me started.</p>
<p>The constitutional provision about failing to pass has no bearing on the conduct of an election campaign &#8211; look at Hawke in 1984.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Robert Merkel</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/29/parsing-the-polls-just-how-strong-is-labors-lead-really/#comment-113013</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Merkel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jan 2010 19:54:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/?p=12445#comment-113013</guid>
		<description>As My School demonstrate Mark.  I&#039;d love to know what, if anything, the focus groups say about it over the next few weeks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As My School demonstrate Mark.  I&#8217;d love to know what, if anything, the focus groups say about it over the next few weeks.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>

