The first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s 2PP at 52, and the Coalition ahead by one point on primaries at 41, with The Greens steady on 9. By contrast, Essential Research has Labor on a 2PP of 56. Interestingly, in light of what I was saying last week, Essential Research asked respondents about the firmness of their voting intention:
Table borrowed from Possum.
Make of that what you will, but I find it very interesting indeed. One consequence, if you go with the hypothesis about Abbott firming up the Coalition’s base vote, is that Labor voters may also be becoming more confirmed in their partisan choice. We don’t have data on this, except for this one snapshot, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Liberals’ strategy of opposition to pretty much everything has begun to polarise parts of the electorate.
Of interest also will be the new media narrative. That bit of it which will emanate from the Abbotariat is so predictable it’s barely worth sketching. But Kevin Rudd and Labor won’t be at all unhappy with this result (which, remember, still has them in much the same winning position as in the last election). It’ll fit perfectly their strategy of putting pressure on Abbott to answer questions as if he were a possible PM (arising, for instance, from the Intergenerational Report and the associated issue of healthcare costs, his stance on the private health rebate). As I’ve remarked, his climate change policy, to be released tomorrow, will be framed by the Government as economic pie in the sky, which will reinforce perceptions turning up in focus groups that he’s a risky economic proposition.
And there’s no harm at all in geeing up your own troops in the face of the possibility of an Abbott ascension. That’s the flipside of the Women’s Weekly kerfuffle, which Labor will hope on one hand will play into perceptions that Abbott wants the state to intrude too far into private matters (which the Essential Research polling is showing up), and on the other, will prompt those of us who are very much agin this sort of thing to have a yarn to less committed friends and colleagues.
Update: Possum on Newspoll.
Update: Jonathan Green at The Drum.
Steady as she goes Midshipman.
Polls Schmolls. Let’s see what happens in Parliament.
Womens Weekly indignation and critiques aside, the Liberals have been at the game a long time. Whats the bet that certain colourful Coalition identities will be muzzled, told to avoid door stops on pain of a fate worse than death. Shall we keep stats?
Barnaby has already cut loose.
But wait there’s more: Bailleau up 5 against Brumby, to 53-47. Not close, but far tighter than previous.
And its no surprise to learn “Two-thirds of voters are dissatisfied with the state government’s performance on public transport.”
Brumby – listen to the punters. PICK UP YOUR ACT ON PUBLIC TRANSPORT. Its not going well, and you aren’t doing it right.
Greens vote up nicely, excellent chance of taking at least one inner city Melbourne seat this time around.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/baillieu-bounds-into-contention-20100201-n8xq.html
This isn’t exactly federal politics but I truly feel everyone should read this article. I’m so disgusted by the SA Labor party. I really don’t know what to say I’m that livid and that disappointed in the road the ALP are going down in this country.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26665381-5006301,00.html
The SA government is now an authoritarian regime that will do anything to keep power from selling state properties to the catholic church for far less than market value, selling public parks to cashed up developers while giving the people a new park which is an old factory site on contaminated land, to banning the covers of all R rated DVD’s in video stores regardless of genre to this, trying to stamp out public debate during the election campaign.
Anyone that lives here knows what disclosing your full name and postcode on the internet during the election campaign will mean. Our far-right Attorney-General has a well documented history of chasing down anyone to try and win a political point from turning up on their doorsteps to ringing them at home when he feels like it. Independent MP David Winderlich recently under parliamentary privilege made some pretty damning allegations about Atkinson and the levels of initimidatory tactics he will stoop too.
What has happened to the Labor Party (both SA & Federally (mandatory internet filter) in this country? Why are they prepared to do absolutely anything to keep the Christian Right on side? I just can’t vote for either of them anymore.
I think that should be 12.
Just saw morning TV footage of the Mad Monk peddling his bike on an early morning outing in the full lycra racing togs. They don’t expect us to believe that a TV crew just “happened” to know where he was going to be at 5am, do they? That they just “happened” to recognise the face of the Leader of the Opposition under the helmet and goggles as they passed him on the road?
If he keeps on playing up with the Action Man stunts he’d just better stay clear of beaches on the Mornington Peninsula, I reckon.
Jacques,
While I agree with most of what you said, your bias is poking through. Atkinson isn’t pushing through the laws to mollify the Christian Right…I wasn’t aware that the Festival of Light cared about internet blogs.
He apears to be pushing through these laws to mollify himself.
According to the commercial AM radio news, the poll shows Labor “is in trouble”. Imagine how much trouble they’d be in if it was 48-52.
Lefty E: If Brumby could wave a magic wand and fix public transport overnight, he’d undoubtedly do it.
He’s paying for mistakes they made years ago – not ordering more trains, ordering dud trains, and the myki decision.
Blue Dog @ 10,
I didn’t mean THAT is to placate the Christian Right but that SA & federal Labor in general are both in recent times bending over backwards to get on side with them (SA’s sweet property deals/the DVD covers thing & the feds mandatory internet filter).
And yes Atkinson is an enemy of democracy. If you’re unaware he has the audacity to publicly accuse others of lying about living in his electorate (I do) yet now lives outside his own electorate himself. When he pops up in the comments on Adelaide Now he still refers to himself as “Michael Atkinson of Croydon”. I wonder if his own laws will apply to him?
Well the ‘firmness of voting intention’ chart shows that the election can be won or lost by wooing Green voters, who are registering 12% on primary votes, but 67% of whom indicate a possibility of switching votes. That’s 8% of the electorate up for grabs in one “bloc”, for want of a better term.
And which way do you think those 8% will lean?
Add to that the “beauty contest” preferred PM numbers 58 Rudd to 26 Abbott, and it’s looking ugly for MM.
Labor should take on this Tone. How the hell can he possibly deliver on this great big hymen after the election?
Can we all just agree on 52-48 and call the next election now and save the expense. I’d take 52-48 in a heartbeat.
what surprises me about the rusted on coalition voters firming up is that they are doing so as the coalition’s CO2 policies look like they put together by a provincial soviet in a vodka factory after they had watched a Punch and Judy show presented by the Channon Cultural Exchange Collective. When did this rusted on conservative base develop an appetite for fuzzily costed state fiat?
The punters are experiencing an episode of midterm ennui.
When they are invited to scrutinise the gaggle of monomaniacs, frotteurs, halfwits, haranguers, zombies and droids that comprise the opposition front bench, Australian voters will set the hounds onto them.
Yeah, but what if Abbott improves. An Abbott Government would be worse than a Howard Government.
No discernible signal on the short-run effects of MySchool. If the vox pop in Sunday’s Sun-Herald (which regrettably I can’t find a link for) is remotely representative, it’s far from obvious that this issue will be as good for Labor, at least in the short term, as some have suggested. Parents and teachers who are unpleasantly surprised at the pink- or red-banding of their schools may not be a trivial constituency, and may want to rouse on someone other than each other.
“Yeah, but what if Abbott improves. An Abbott Government would be worse than a Howard Government.”
Depends how much he improves!
“According to the commercial AM radio news, the poll shows Labor “is in trouble””
Excellent. Way to firm up the ALP numbers. Abbott’s like a freakshow – its hard not to watch, but you dont want it in your lounge room.
@Mercurious: yep, looks like Rudd’s going to have to pick his act. Loose Greens decide the future!
@ Rob: yep, though plenty of the PPPs prventing new public transport infrastucture were done on Brumby’s watch – he was a key figure in the Bracks govt of course too. Plus he’s fluffed the one-in-8-year chance of reverting it to public ownership without a compo case. Thats the only real solution in my view.
Rudd has decided to start scaring the voters that Abbott will be PM any day now…
Just saw him deliver a media conference on Sky, and he was pushing the line that it only takes 2-3 voters in 100 to change their minds, and Tony Abbott is PM…
…expect that line to get a good airing, ad nauseum, in the next few days.
Nothing scares swinging voters more than the realisation that their votes have consequences…
… unless they are completely happy with the consquences
@24 – What – lock up your daughters?
HC: the preferred PM stats are 58-26, so that’s 26% of voters who’d be “completely happy with the consequences”.
In your dreams, pal.
Dylwah and Katz for the win, there.
In a related note, a survey of the 54 most at-risk settings for bushfire hazard suggested that up to 30% would stay and defend their homes even on a Code Red day when even the most secure of homes was not guaranteed.
Hopefully, we will never find out if that turns out to be the decision on the day, and that on such days, everyone affected will evacuate in an orderly and timely way because in the wake of February 7 last year, not a few were lost in last-minute escape attempts, but it does underline a point — that what one declares when one is at arm’s length from the consequences, is probably not a reliable guide to how they will respond when they have to confront the consequences immediately.
I simply can’t believe that 41% of the populace could cast their first preference vote for the coalition as things stand now or are likely to stand in August or whenever it is. 35%? Sure. 39%? Maybe. But that’s it.
It’s worth noting that the two closest elections in recent times where the government clung on were called early, which obviously won’t apply here.
This is rather offtopic, but… my strong suspicion is that underestimates the proportion of people who are staying put in at-risk places on code red days.
Fran, there is a bit of a problem with that bushfire survey. It seems to have included residents in some large regional towns. The advice on Code Red days is to leave ones abode and seek shelter in large regional towns. Get it?
The large regional towns aren’t necessarily all that safe either, Stumped.
The last biggish fire we had in SA threatened the suburbs of Port Lincoln.
Indeedy!
Update: Possum on Newspoll.
Update: Jonathan Green at The Drum.
I have a feeling that the directive from Rudd Central was for all ALP pollies to rest up good, ‘cos come February there will be no days off before the election…
I’m no psephologist so I get very edgy when polls like this come out and are seized on by journos whether to support their own bias or just for a headline story. I can almost feel their reporting adding weight to a shift in the polls. So I was interested to read Peter Brent’s comment today that just a rounding up or down of fractional stats can be used to colour the picture pro or con a particular party. After that particularly aberrant Newspoll though surely they and the Oz are going to be super careful about their reputation. Or is the Oz just happy to use whatever ammunition they can to kick start the year for Abbott?
Your rhetorical question answers itself, I suspect, as indeed they’re meant to, PatriciaWA!
Last time I put $700 on a bet was when Lions were paying $2.40 to beat Collingwood for the second time in a row to claim the hatrick… It was a certainty and so is the Julia Gillard show: no one in their right mind is going to give that up after one term!
*** READ ‘EM AND DON’T WEEP BECOZ THAT IS ALL SHE WROTE LADIES AND GENTLEMEN! ***
–> NOW, WHO’S GOT CHAMPAGNE?!!????!!!
Lenore Taylor, an Oz journo I had previously mentally noted as being Not A Dickhead Or Liberal Spruiker (the right call?), was on Sky saying that Abbott’s carbon pollution policy will easily reach a 5% reduction target in the short term, and, oh, Tony Abbott is very good at coming across as a regular bloke, unlike Rudd.
That first part of her metanarrative bit wasn’t so egregious, as at least she admitted that the Coalition have no idea how to restructure polluting industries, but Abbott being a ‘regular bloke’? Jesus, I now don’t trust any commentator who doesn’t entertain the idea that the Monk’s not inconsiderable charisma is undermined by his not inconsiderable weirdness.
Tones performance today in Question Time was, well, awfull – he just didnt do beyond sound bites and passion – very flaky. Christopher Pyne spoke shortly after and looked together by comparison. Tone managed to make Barnaby look statesmen like today. Just gringeworthy.
Mark @ 36 is your comment about rhetorical questions in general, or mine in particular? I take your point that either way they do answer themselves. They are, however, sometimes intended to be stronger even than a statement of opinion or fact. They are a device used by writers and speakers to challenge a response, a reaction, not just get a factual answer. Surely, that’s something you as LP’s progenitor would encourage?
Glad to see that Nickws too feels that the Oz and its journos have become shameless partisans for Abbott. Somehow it defies logic that a responsible newspaper can try to turn the gobbledygook of this Opposition rabble into something that passes for policy. Malcolm Turnbull looks and sounds a saner and happier man by the day.
Who is not in favour of the timely rhetorical question, PatriciaWA?