Today’s Essential Research poll might show the reversal in the movement of the polls, which I suspected prompted Tony Abbott’s parental leave thought bubble last week. My view was that Abbott’s speech was a ‘crazy brave’ attempt to shake things up and respond to internal polling which was either showing the Coalition going backwards or, at best, failing to build on the momentum he’d displayed, in some measure, in public polls. There was some support for the view that it was polling driven in statements by Coalition MPs, and almost a week on, it’s certainly looking more and more like it was hardly considered policy which had been worked over for a long time, to put it charitably.
At any rate, as Possum observes, Labor’s lead in today’s poll is its best so far this year.
I think we can also see that Abbott’s parental leave announcement has been viewed very much through the prism of the parties’ images – which in themselves are composites of longstanding perceptions of party strengths and weaknesses, how the parties relate to social cleavages, and less long term assessments of competence and direction in office or in opposition. Policy tends to be mediated through this prism, rather than being an independent variable in its own right. In other words, few policy announcements – in and of themselves – are likely to be political game changers.
It’s useful, then, to counterpose two tables from Essential Report’s research [courtesy of Possum]:
<img src="http://larvatusprodeo.net/files/2010/03/preferredppl1.png"
<img src="http://larvatusprodeo.net/files/2010/03/partyviewscombined1.png"
As Possum also observes, the crunch is in the cross-tabs:
Among Labor voters, 61% supported the Government’s scheme and 15% supported the Opposition’s. However, only 37% of Coalition voters supported the Opposition’s scheme – 20% supported the Government scheme and 35% supported neither.
“Too good to be true” with a chaser of “That’s not very Liberal” seems to be the public call here with Abbott’s PPL.
All that’s aside from the merits of the policy announcement, of which I continue to hold an unfavourable opinion.
There’s another story about one possible weakness for Labor in this research, going by the moniker of KRudd. But that deserves a post of its own, which I’ll duly provide tomorrow.
Update: On Newspoll and the trend in Rudd’s approval ratings and the party vote.
Don’t know if its just parental leave, Mark. On 4 Corners tonight Abbott came across as evasive, shifty and inconsistent. Probably even untruthful. Having Ratty give the impression he was Abbott’s puppet-master (and perhaps still is) would not have helped either. There are problems with Rudd too, of course, which I gather you are going to deal with tomorrow.
It dawned on me tonight those of us fearing a Liberal resurgence don’t have anything to worry about yet. Not going to say anything that might be of any help to them.
Nick Minchin was positively gloating about Abbot’s ascension tot he liberal party leadership. I sincerely hope his next bowel motion turns out to be a porcupine.
Good to see that there is some evidence that the Abbot train is running out of steam.
PB I hope you are right about nothing to worry about yet.
Four Corners tonight was interesting, though obviously it’s too early to show up in the polls (and not the sort of show many undecided or soft voters watch)… I certainly agree that Howard’s representation of himself as aiding Abbott’s career at every step, and that Abbott was his biggest supporter might well be used against him. It occurred to me that Abbott will and has been trying to do a Howard circa 95/96 – explaining away or talking around his earlier extremism, and trying to show that he’s become more moderate over time.
But the difference is that all Howard had to do was to give the electorate an excuse to feel relatively ‘relaxed and comfortable’ in voting out a Labor government, of whom they were very tired after 12 or 13 years. Abbott, and this government, are, of course, at very different stages of the electoral cycle.
I also don’t think Abbott is as good as Howard was at dissembling!
“Rudd-a-dud-dud,
Two men in a tub,
And how do you think they got there?
Liberal, Labor,
Ignoring the weather maker,
They all jumped out of a rotten JSF,
‘Twas enough to make a man care.”
Tony Abbott wants to be the paramount leader of social conservatism in this country, yet there is the little matter of Coalition-voting social conservatives being a bunch of people who mostly don’t like any change that isn’t predicated on sticking it to the people they think are hurting this (their) country. OTOH, that 20% of Liberal supporters who support the government’s plan, there’s your Malcolm Turnbull demographic. The plan they support will pass—the 15% of Labor voters who support Abbottcare will never get the opportunity to see a soak-the-rich family leave policy in action, so they won’t ever have to agitate for the party they support to seriously change its tune (I think).
That dynamic should make the wilderness years very interesting for the tory Opposition.
Careful Mark, you wouldn’t want to jump on the anti-Rudd, ‘pro-Gillard’ bandwagon. That’s Glenn Milne/Andrew Bolt territory. I don’t see any value in getting too close to that narrative, not unless you’re doing a David Burchill and getting off the boat, going all the way…
But, yeah, the old shine has finally come off Rudd. I don’t know why that is terribly surprising.
Was John Howard as treasurer publicly renowned for being a ginger group man? My impression was that whatever divisions existed within the Fraser era Liberal Party weren’t properly understood by the electorate, and that apart from Peacock and Killen they were all considered to be the same type. The dries were pretty subterranean.
Everybody who looks at politics know that Abbott was part of a kind of ideological vanguard in the Howard era.
ALP lead the best ever? It might be in the real world but in the media…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/kevin-rudd-hits-new-low-with-voters-newspoll/story-e6frgczf-1225841129750
tssk, that’s reporting a different poll, and the ALP lead in the Essential Research poll isn’t the best ever, but the best so far in 2011.
Nickws, I’m no grizzled Foucauldian pessimist like Burchell, but conversely, I’ve never been a huge fan of Rudd. Having said that, I think the leadership question is an absurd one, but there’s no doubt its being raised reflects a real concern. But, as I said, more of that later.
Possum:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/03/16/newspoll-tuesday-groundhog-day-edition/
Even worse our ABC never fails to parrot the spin doctors at the Oz.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/16/2846686.htm
I’m not in the ABC-bashing club – I think people need to be careful what they wish for there – but parroting the Sham-meister’s polling analysis in The Oz is pretty lazy journalism.
The “good team of leaders” answer is interesting there. I think Lindsay Tanner does the government a lot of good when he fronts up in the media.
And on the opposition benches, Pyne, Bishop and (God forbid!) Dutton look pretty damaged by all that has gone on around them the last 2 1/2 years. I also think Joe Hockey is quietly writing off 2010, and positioning himself to take over the Liberal leadership in 2011.
“Even worse our ABC never fails to parrot the spin doctors at the Oz.”
It is the selective reporting that is a disgrace, as well. Morgan and Essential get absolutely no coverage by Aunty.
Good for Labor, though, as the message keeps getting out there that Kevin is getting a kicking, even if it is totally manipulated by the Oz.
I’m bemused by the (it seems) almost universal acceptance of the “Rudd as boring, boring grey nerd and Abbott as sporty, muscular Man of the People” narrative not only in the popular MSM but their commenters – although granted, I can’t possibly know how many of those voxpops are Liberal bots. That said, though, it’s really disappointing how little I see that narrative challenged. Me, I like my beer cold, my comedians entertaining, and my politicians focussed policy wonks. Ministers and PMs are supposed to be in the business of formulating policy and governing the nation – I might add, at a time where there are some pretty serious and scary challenges to be dealt with. On the other hand, the media seem to think that I want the politicians I vote for to be some kind of all-singing, all-dancing, weird costume-wearing freak show for my entertainment.
Either they think I’m stupid, or they are stupid.
“Rudd as boring, boring grey nerd and Abbott as sporty, muscular Man of the People”
Spot on Helen. I’ll put my money on the line now: punters are entertained by Abbott, yes, but they wont make him PM in a blue fit, because he’s an authentic, alright: an authentic extremist nutter. Once they realise its no longer telly fun with budgie smuggler, and the 6pm news is now on, and its actual contest for political power, they’ll run a mile from that maniac Abbott. There’s just now way people are going to elect someone as rabid as Tones. Not a snowflake’s.
Ive said it before, and Ill do it publicly again: Abbott will tank Latham-style come the election. And the usual suspects will look like fools – again.
“Me, I like my beer cold, my comedians entertaining, and my politicians focussed policy wonks”
Almost as good as Dennis Rodman – EX NBA. Pretty out there in his day…
“I like my food spicy, my liquor hard and my sex nasty. Does that make me a bad person?”
Actually I’m hoping that Abbott does well enough in the election for the Libs to consider keeping him around for a while…
Newspoll doesn’t really show much movement, but I still have a strong feeling that the upcoming election will be a disaster for the Coalition.
So many were quick to dismiss the idea that Abbott has a problem with women. The polling has seemed to suggest that Abbott had no particular problem with women (other than the generic problem Libs have with women nowadays) and this was all a beat up by Lefty inner-city feminists in the media. But I strongly suspect more qualitative polling and focus groups are showing that Abbott does have a problem with women. And I suspect it has more to do with women not having much time for his thuggish personality than with the positions he’s taken.
Watching the bits of 4 Corners that I could stand (sans Howard) Abbott came across as the supreme egotist – even the way he walks into a room has look at me all over it, and a complete charlatan.
The meme’s got around that he’s a straight talking, no bullshit politician, but he’s as slippery as the best of them (JWH) with twice as much hide.
Ginja, your last sentence raises an interesting point. Past Liberal leaders from Menzies to Howard knew that women in the older age cohorts were and are: (a) a quite large and enduring, albeit not highly visible, voting demographic; and (b) sensitive to ungentlemanly comportment and aggressive language and behaviour on the part of male political figures. This is not always remembered by younger conservatives, as evidenced by the “Jeff F**ing Rules” slogan used by the Liberals in the 1999 Victorian State election (the unloseable election which they nonetheless lost).
The other dormant factor is that many former One Nation and Hanson supporters genuinely loathe Abbott where they respected Howard. I gather he’s seen as a two-faced snake – and certainly gets the main blame from anyone who cares (which doesnt, I admit, include me
) about Hanson’s court case.
Some chap called Paul Keating has an opinion about Tony Abbott.
It’s interesting what the Oz and others in the media are doing because by making Abbott appear stronger they’re losing the chance to use the underdog narrative. In fact they risk Rudd being able to reclaim the underdog narrative.
It also might make ALP supporters considering a protest vote against Rudd to ‘teach him a lesson’ swing back to the ALP.
Has anyone else entertained the possibility that Abbott might alienate conservative Catholic voters? By trying to be all things to all people, on differnt occasions, he is in danger of putting himself in conflict with orthodox positions, particularly on abortion and the death penalty. Trying to distance himself from the footage in the parliamentary debate on RU 486 was priceless. As for the pronouncents of homelessness . . .
“In fact they risk Rudd being able to reclaim the underdog narrative.”
He already is, tssk.
Roy Orbison @16: I was quoting Homer Simpson. And aren’t you dead?
Yeah, I heard Keating deliver his opinion on Abbott on the radio this morning, Paul.
It was grand! (Particularly the bit where he pretended he couldn’t remember Barnaby Joist’s name.)
Helen,
Nah, I’m always on greatest hits radio. I live in a caravan park near Batemans Bay but get up to Sydney a few times each winter to watch Russell’s Rabbitohs. Glad I didn’t go last Sunday, though. I had to run the fisho’s raffle at the Soldiers Club. Who’d have thought that would turn out to be a better option?
However, if Abbott ever gets into the Lodge, I will happily resume being dead.
Indeed!
Update: On Newspoll and the trend in Rudd’s approval ratings and the party vote.
On one betting website, to win the next Federal Election:
ALP: $1.28
Coalition: $3.60
On another website:
ALP: $1.18
Any other party: $4.70
Did anyone see that documentary on Abbott last night? 4 Corners I think?
A couple of things seem to stick out like sore thumbs:
- Abbott is “very bright” in a traditional academic way (as in passing exams), as opposed to being creative or innovative.
- Abbott struggles to understand his own feelings, and indeed the feelings of everyone else. He has almost no emotional radar, or even knowledge of self.
- Abbott needs external guidelines for deciding complex issues. Failing that, he shoots from the lip with whatever first occurs to him. He uses catholic teachings, or he runs to Howard for advice. Howard obviously loves it – great for that little ego of his. It seems Abbott is still going to Howard for advice. What sort of PM would be trotting off to someone else to be told what to do all the time?
- Abbott has very inconsistent pronouncements on difficult issues. The homeless, the poor, aboriginals, pregnant women, etc, “got themselves into their situation, from their own poor judgement” etc, and are a “national disgrace”, etc. Homosexuals seem to be somehow not full human beings in his eyes, and are scary people. However, he then claims to “take people as they come” and fully understand their difficulties. Que??? (As Manuel would say, in Fawlty Towers)
- Abbott’s views are often extreme Black/White exaggerations, and he alternates unpredictably (e.g. on his support of climate change), and he exhibits negligible ability for nuanced understanding of complex issues (e.g. not all homeless people are permanently so, due to being drug addicts or whatever).
I just wonder, if we did a brain scan, would there be any lights on in the right side of his brain? You know, the side with the creative, intuitive, emotional understanding, and ability to synthesise new understanding from complex issues?
Studies show that the best leaders have the ability to use both sides of their brain, come to original solutions, and take in the range of perspectives and information on complex issues.
After watching that documentary, I’m not sure that Abbott has the makings of a good leader or PM. Turnbull would have much more balance.
I think that Lindsay Tanner came up with the best quip when Kerry O’Brien was needling him [10 March - 7.30 Report] about why the Government was targetting Abbott as being obstructionist. Tanner said ‘he seems to think that he’s auditioning for a role in Survivor.. Well, actually, he’s auditioning for a role as Prime Minister…’
A self-wedging is a very uncomfortable move when one is smuggling budgies.
I think that’s right Paul Norton.
I hasten to add that many women take the positions adopted by politicians just as seriously as the blokes do. It’s my guess that most women look at the spandex bike shorts, the almost comic aggressiveness and think one thing: he’s over-compensating for something. Remember that add with the car hoons and the unimpressed women making that emasculating sign with their little pinkies?
…ad, I should say……..
Attila the Nun confirms that Abbott has wedged the Coalition on parental leave.
The burgeoning bromance between Bob Brown and Tony Abbott is fascinating to watch.
The point that some on this site must get is that Abbott is not your typical Liberal. He is more DLP that Liberal. He is socially conservative but not in the pocket of big business like many other Liberal free marketeers. Some people want to lump all Liberals together for an easy argument. Abbott is really no more conservative than Rudd. And there are many in the ALP who are far more free market and neo Liberal than Abbott. The DLP also offers far better policies than the ALP. The reality is that Abbott probably has far more of a social conscience than many of the careerists in the ALP.
Broadsheet Groupthink FAIL.
TV Network (insert name of current Liberal leader) Booster FAIL.
Tabloid/AM Radio talkback. WIN WIN WIN
Pyrrhic victory or what?
Hardly a recomendation.