Rudd's ratings come down to earth; but he shouldn't worry
March 16th, 2010 by Mark Bahnisch | Published in Media, Polls | 31 Comments
In comments on my thread on the failure of the Abbott parental leave thought bubble to halt a move back to Labor in the polls (and the reasons why), I observed that Possum’s observation provides further confirmation that it was probably private polling inspired in the first place:
Tony Abbott should consider himself a little lucky today with the Newspoll sample, as other unpublished phone polling that was in the field last week and over the weekend picked up movement more akin to Essential than Newspoll. So saying, it all comes out in the wash given enough time. (And no folks, that isn’t a Newspoll conspiracy, it’s simply normal sampling error – put it back in your pants).
So, I still think we’re seeing some movement back to Labor in public opinion, despite the apparent stasis in Newspoll.
Despite the fact that Abbott’s been having a dream run in the media (always seemingly ready to be amused and entertained with something or someone that can be represented as providing colour and movement), it’s actually much more difficult (and probably more unwise) to run the ‘seize the attention’ opposition strategy than sometimes perceived. It has a pretty short use by date. And it doesn’t necessarily work; just ask Mark Latham.
I think that the true (if more prosaic) story about the narrowing of the party vote in the polls over the last few months is that it’s a return to partisan normality. Federal governing parties have very rarely enjoyed the sorts of overwhelming advantages state incumbents have had, and not surprisingly so, as the nation is a much more variegated and complex beast. That, and the perceived end of the GFC, leaves less room for Kevin Rudd to adopt the ‘above politics’ stance beloved of Labor premiers (and of ‘New Labor’ administrations more generally); or rather, it doesn’t succeed in hoovering up as much of the soft vote when the opposition unites behind a leader and rejoins the partisan game.
The spin on Newspoll this morning – in the absence of any movement in the two party preferred – was the banner headline of doom for Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings. That’s more or less a waste of newsprint. If we had a breakdown of the Newspoll figures, I strongly suspect we’d find that Rudd’s drop over the last few months has mostly come from Coalition voters. That reflects the perceived increase in strength of leadership and unity among Coalition partisans in the electorate; Rudd’s ratings are still higher by a significant degree than the ALP party vote, which implies that he’s still rated by undecided and soft voters; as does his advantage over Abbott and his commanding lead in the PPM stakes (once upon a time, of course, the all important indicator according to Shanahan and crew). I doubt, therefore, that he’s got much further to fall, all other things being equal, or that there’s any remaining drag effect in the party vote.
Agree Mark. The (non) story here is that the fully-fledged disaster that was the Lib leadership is righting itself finally, back to two-party business as usual, Rudd still soundly ahead on 2PP, massively on PPM, to win in 2010 by slightly increased margin on 2007 – except without the bothersome 2004 senate hangover.
Cue another Rudd government, this time with with Greens BOP in Senate.
I find it somewhat Orwellian that an opinion poll with no statistically significant change in any variables compared to the previous poll gets such a strong headline in the Australian, which then gets parroted by the ABC. There is no excuse for the truely awful that Australia’s news media is in.
Bernard Keane today on Lazy ABC Journalism:
As I posted on another thread, the connection between ABC and News Ltd is not merely coincidental.
The news media in Australia is turning feral to the extent that it is in danger of becoming a threat to democracy, but it’s not for the first time.
“a threat to democracy”
Run, Chicken Little, run!
I tend to think a little bit of polling pressure on Labor is a good thing, over the last two years their substantial lead contributed to their complacency on issues like carbon trading and healthcare reform.
John Pilger, writing in The New Statesman:
“As I posted on another thread, the connection between ABC and News Ltd is not merely coincidental.”
Of course not. News Ltd owns 45% of AAP (along with Fairfax), which is the ABC’s headline news feed of choice.
I couldnt see Lab losing the next election unless the wole schools building thing turned into a debacle.
There has been some damage with the batts, but not as much as the news makes out.
His “woman trouble” is effectively nullified by Abbot having a bad reputation on womens issues. So unless the Libs did something completely left field like replacing him with a woman thats not an election loser either.
Leinad does bring up a good point, an effective opposition (and that includes the greens)helps a government from implimenting its mistakes by crowing about how clever they are to find them while its still just a policy.
Speaking of trash reporting Nikki Savva doesn’t let the facts get in the way of a good story in this rather confusing piece, negatively reporting Kevin Rudd’s disinterest in sharing his sex life with the universe as opposed to Tony Abbott’s inability to give everyone chapter and verse.
Apparently, Abbott’s obsession with his or anyone’s sexual exploits makes him far more attractive to women than Rudd. And here I was just thinking it’s plain tacky and just a bit, I don’t know, icky.
Sorry, should read Tony Abbott’s inability to stop giving everyone chapter and verse.
Jane @11: ” Abbott’s obsession with his or anyone’s sexual exploits … And here I was just thinking it’s plain tacky and just a bit, I don’t know, icky.”
The press love it though. Brash and colourful. Makes good copy.
Luckily the press vote as individuals, not as an enterprise.
Reminds me of a story about interview techniques for women applying for jobs in industry, from the sexist days of 3 decades ago.
Q: “Would you consider a candidate wearing a short skirt and revealing blouse to the interview?”
A: “Of course. I’d consider her carefully, and give her a long and thorough interview.”
“But I wouldn’t give her the job.”
The media appear to be taking a similar view of the budgie smuggler model. Apparently the model believes that any exposure is good exposure… ;)
Funny how none of the MSM outlets parroting the Newspoll line have made much of the distinction between this low satisfaction rating, versus the more famous preferred PM category. Or, as the Hun puts it, “On the question of who would make the better prime minister, both Mr Rudd’s 55 per cent and Mr Abbott’s 30 per cent have been unchanged for the past month.”
I’m pretty certain the last incumbent ALP prime minister never got to fifty five in the preferred stakes.
Jane @ 11
I must say I agree with you. The PM and his wife seem to have a healthy, happy relationship and it is not really anyone’s business in any case. Neither is Abbott’s love (sex) life but he does seem to have an obsession with it. By the way, I thought Tanner’s comments about Abbott continually polishing his pecs for the cameras in today’s question time were LOL material.
Maybe it all comes down to the dumbing down by the media – eg Lara Bingle or whatever her name is and that cricket player (is the ring down the toilet or not?), not to mention Jennifer and Brad and Angelina etc. Do people really care about this sort of stuff or was it ever thus? I suppose Casanova’s volumes sold a motza did they? Or did they come to light after his death?
I think Abbott cuts through for some people in a way that Turnbull didn’t. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Abbott’s personality, at least to some extent, driving up the Coalition’s numbers. We’ll have to wait and see if he does one wacko thing or one policy reversal too many (odds on).
I was wondering, recently, whether the Tonester could be possibly entertaining the notion of blocking supply.
That is, 1975 style, refusing to pass the Federal Budget in the Senate. To the point where the GG is forced to adjudicate.
Guy @16: “I think Abbott cuts through for some people in a way that Turnbull didn’t.”
Maybe Allen @15 has the answer on who the “some people” might be?
Perhaps it is the cohort that tune into “…Lara Bingle or whatever her name is and that cricket player (is the ring down the toilet or not?), not to mention Jennifer and Brad and Angelina etc.”?
Lefty E@#1
I think Lefty E has been channelling my psephological predictions. In 2009 I predicted that in the 2010 election the ALP would beat the L/NP by 53 to 47, thereby increasing its margin from 2007.
Through 2008-09 I came to the conclusion that the only hope for the L/NP to avoid a landslide loss in 2010 was to distance itself from Work Choices and climate change denialism.
In fact the L/NP have gone backwards since 2008, dumping a competitive and electable candidate like Turnbull for a slightly unsettling character like Abbott. (Whom I nonetheless like for his straightforward talk on cultural issues.)
We are looking at probably a three term ALP government accompliced by a strong GREEN senate presence to ride their repugnant Left-liberal on the wave of climate catastrophes and a divided and defeated L/NP.
Way to go Tony.
Bugger this. Who isn’t worried at the prospect of this bloody lunatic running the joint!After watching the 4 corners program last night, and the realisation that this drongo is actually the rodents puppet, why wouldn’t anyone in this country with half a brain be bloody terrified at the prospect of a marionette of the former prime rodent be begging/pleading/manipulating the truth in his quest to be the next PM?
Elise @12, I guess that is the point really. Abbott’s grubby sex stream of consciousness probably is titillating for some fluff heads, makes him “authentic” to quote a certain rodent. Makes him repellent imo.
And public prurience does play a large part, as you say Alan @14, otherwise the Lara Bingle nonsense would have died a death weeks ago; after all it’s selling plenty of print and other media, I suppose. Nice turn of phrase from Tanner, though. Could almost have come from a certain PJK.
robbo, the Rodent’s endorsement does make one wonder if he has his grimy paw up Mr Punch’s smock. Bloody hell! MP’s will probably have to list any bedroom antics before the day’s session begins.
Listening to the ABC and glancing at the Oz headlines you wouldn’t think we had a substantial Labour government with well qualified ministers like Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Wayne Swann, Lindsay Tanner, Penny Wong, Greg Combet, Shris Bowen and Stephen Smith running this country and steering it steadily through major crises. Nor would you imagine that the Opposition consisted of the likes of Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce, Julie and Bronwyn Bishop,Joe Hockey, Kevin Andrews, Christopher Pyne and Peter Dutton. Never mind.
Whatever the spin
Our Kev will win.
Let’s be factual
It’s only natural.
All those Libs
Who liked his Dibs
Now have their Tony.
What a show pony!
Whereas our Kev
Looks like a Rev
Without a collar.
Bottom dollar!
How peculiar
Libs pushing Julia
Who’s bound to win.
She’d romp it in!
But hold steady!
When Kev’s ready
She’s next in line
And she’ll be fine.
That’s why the spin.
Cos now they’re in
The Left brigade
Could last a decade!
Or even more!
So that’s the score,
And why the Right
Is using media might
To muscle in
Against a likely Labour win.
Peter Van Onselen does his comradely duty in today’s OO.
I think there’s a good case to be made that the next Coalition Prime Minister isn’t in Federal Parliament yet.
Elise @ 12, a bloke I worked for some years ago at Santos reckoned the Schlumberger employment interview technique for female employees was to get them to stand against a wall and ask them if they could see their feet. You’d hope that was no longer the case, but who knows?
The GFC hits Rudd’s popularity? I woulda thought it was one of his finest hours.
The insulation stuff up though, is another question entirely.
So far, Abbott’s finest hour is … well, ecouraging us to talk more about sex I suppose.
I heard van Onselen on the radio the other morning, Paul N @ 22, contorting furiously around how Abbott wasn’t completely abandoning Liberal principles (that’s a joke) with his Great Big New Motherhood Tax on large companies. Chris Pyne was doing much the same thing this morning, only more so.
We’ll get hours of innocent fun out of this.
DI(nr) @23, yep, Schlum were certainly a bit special. Quite possibly still are.
Three decades or so back, our graduating class of engineers were lining up for interviews with potential employers every day towards the end of our last term. Schlum sent 3 guys to form an interview panel in the interview room. Having a surname near the start of the alphabet, I was towards the head of the queue.
“Oh…they didn’t tell us there were girls in the class…”
“Umm…Oh well… I guess we may as well fill in the forms and take a photo anyway.”
You might imagine the effect on my morale. The interview was a joke. If I had had a bit more courage back then, I should have walked out immediately.
Hearing some of the horror stories from the graduates that took jobs with them, it was a blessing in diguise. Army boot camp would have been about as much fun as working in that outfit.
A decade or so later I went to talk with the Schlum R&D guys in Cambridge UK about some R&D project, and they had the mistaken impression I might be interested in a job with them. Times change. Their style had improved somewhat (or maybe it was just that their R&D guys are different to their Ops guys) but still a bit special. A few brave female souls worked in their R&D and training divisions by the 1990′s. Not what I would have called an enlightened employer.
I met one the sales blokes from Schlumberger, Elise. He was a dick. I didn’t much care for their software, either.
Labor will probably be returned with a slightly increased majority but the Liberals are doing well in the polls currently, it is a much better position to be in than some expected, why aren’t they in the abyss that the state Libs fell into shortly after their defeats of a decade ago? it is foolish for the opponents of the Libs to ignore the facts.
Hey, I’ve got a Schlumberger story too! A Schlumberger tech came on-site to install Geoframe and Oracle and as the IT guy I had to give him access to our system. I remember the date quite clearly: 12 September 2001. He spent the time between swapping CDROMs telling me how he and his girlfriend had spent the previous night cheering as the Twin Towers burned and fell. Now that was special. (To my eternal shame I didn’t tell him off.)
@28 – Geoff, the answer to that is in the post. State politics is played out over a narrower field of issues with (usually) much less probing media coverage, and then you have the fact that Australia is obviously a more complex entity – demographically and culturally diverse – than any of its 8 state and territory parts. We’ve never seen the sorts of Labor landslides common recently at state level in the Commonwealth parliament, and indeed, let’s not forget that Rudd didn’t win a huge majority in 2007. So the point of partisan normality, if you like, is at a much closer electoral split than in many states.
The Government in Australia, (Don’t know if it’s always 100% Labour) has been stuffing with Australians for years, and mostly the one’s living in the countryside, why you ask?
Because fewer voters out there, so less able to defend themselves.
Big cities pull in the most votes.
Here are some simple Examples for you.
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