Comments on: Libs win elections in second place

By: peter d. jones

peter d. jones — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 04:45:21 +0000

Those of us who know the waywardness of the Hare-Clarke system of voting are not going to be drawn over the final result in Tasmania so it’s silly to predict anything till the ALP or Liberals think they have won in terms of seats or the percentage of the overall vote. We’re all waiting for the postal votes to be finalised before preferences can be worked out. After that, the two major parties can decide how to negotiate with the Greens.

Some of us wonder why the Liberals don’t form a Grand Coalition with the ALP as they invariably vote together against the Greens and their two major backers, the forest destruction industry and Federal Hotels, would be very happy. Then the Greens could be the real Opposition as they are anyway and there would be enough MPs to have nine Ministers and some backbenchers which in the current situation, there will not be.

By: Fine

Fine — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 11:52:02 +0000

That’s true Mercurius @ 39. The conservatives now only has the Alsace-Lorraine region. It’s funny how we take so little notice of what in Europe, yet we get really interested about Us health care, even though it doesn’t effect us either.

By: Nabakov

Nabakov — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 10:48:59 +0000

One point that perhaps hasn’t been made strongly enough here is that the MSM has always been about using dramatic stories to boost the reader/viewers they can sell to advertisers. And now as the eyeballs drain away to the innertubes, they are more desperate than ever to whip up souffles of conflict. Brumby Blasts Rudd! Costello Slams Abbott!

And of course the more overheated partisan blogs aren’t helping either. Obama is a Communist! Howard is a Fascist!

Reminded here of Rabindranath Tagore saying the gods are amused when the busy river condemns the idle clouds.

By: Snorky

Snorky — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:52:58 +0000

Sure the ALP got a thrashing, Myriad74, if you compare their vote on Saturday to that of the previous election, but the fact remains that the Libs achieved only 39%, and most likely 10 seats out of 25, hardly a ringing endorsement for them, and still less for Abbott, even if you accept the furphy that the result had any significant federal implications. The only way they could have drawn any comfort from it is if the 12% anti Labor swing went all their way. You’d have to think that under federal election rules, a fair part of the disaffected 12% would vote Green and preference Labor. Result: probably no change federally – all 5 Reps seats to Labor. In the Senate, maybe more Greens, as suggested above.

By: Gummo Trotsky

Gummo Trotsky — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 07:03:40 +0000

Now that the Hive Mind has had the chance to express its disdain for the pack mentality of the press, maybe it’s time to get on with attacking Labor from the left. You know you want to.

By: Ville

Ville — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 05:19:38 +0000

I’m not surprised at the coverage. I’m pretty sure none of these journalists are stupid. Some are more venal than others, but I’m sure they all know that, federally, Labor are in a strong position, and a lot of what they write is just ‘party line’ stuff. Given that, they’re not going to turn around and suddenly talk honestly about state elections. They’re going to do what they’ve been doing for ages – spinning it into a feel-good story for the Coalition. It’s entirely consistent.

But I would like to know what’s up with Newspoll. They’ve been consistently a couple of percentage points low on the national ALP 2PP compared with the other pollsters, at least since the ‘rogue’ poll of last year. And the poll-eve SA state Newspoll showed the same discrepancy. That last one is at least measurable and, on the face of it, seems to make the likes of Essential and Nielsen a bit more credible by comparison.

It’s very unlikely that Newspoll are doing anything underhand – they’d be mad to put their credibility under threat like that. But there does appear to something in their methodology they need to look at.

By: joe2

joe2 — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 05:04:17 +0000

Vive la France!

By: Mercurius

Mercurius — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 04:58:24 +0000

Big win for French socialists party in regional elections over the weekend too…

By: Kersebleptes

Kersebleptes — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 04:28:08 +0000

Mark @ 56,

Yes, me too! Hope isn’t such a bad address, and certainly beats the alternative.

After the next Federal Labor win I’m sure that partisan journos at the ABC will lay off for a time- but then so do the News Ltd slime when one of their attempted manipulations falls in a heap.

It’s a bully’s instinctive reaction: immediately absent yourself from the scene of an embarrassing reverse- but then come right back as soon as you can bear to, and act as if it had never happened…

By: adrian

adrian — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 04:27:18 +0000

Essential Reseach? I thought that Newspoll was the only polling company in town.

Fantastic news from the US!