« profile & posts archive

This author has written 425 posts for Larvatus Prodeo.

Return to: Homepage | Blog Index

112 responses to “Gulf of Mexico oil spill”

  1. Sam Bauers

    Looking at those satellite images gives me a sense of deja vu.

  2. Sam Bauers

    Looking at those satellite images gives me a sense of deja vu.

  3. Fran Barlow

    It’s an appalling event — which reminds us of our own recent travails off the coast of WA.

    This is one of the externalities of resort to oil — these periodic “Black Swan” (pun intended) events. You know that they are going to happen, but you can’t know when. When they do, there’s little you can do but prevent the very worst of it, but what you can’t prevent is still devastating. Even the dispersants are themselves a toxic impact on the marine environment.

    Because of its location, if not its size, this could turn out to be the oil industry’s Chernobyl. Unlike Chernobyl, which was the product of a design seen as poor even when it was built by the moribund and unaccountable regime that built and operated it, this platform was very much a high tech effort. Just days before these events I accidentally watched some promo from IBM speaking proudly of the contribution they were making to BPs oil recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico. I wish I’d kept the link. It’s probably been pulled.

    To me, this underlines, again, the pressing need to reduce world consumption of oil. This will be a very difficult thing, and not only because of its role in transport energy. As most know but most of us forget in conversation, oil is every where. I was talking to my 17-year-old about this disaster as we came back from soccer yesterday and I noted the role of oil in every polymer-based product in our lives. His jersey, his shorts, his boots and shinguard, the water bottle in his hand — oil-based; the dashboard of the car, the seals on the door, the seats, the mat, the moulds, the stickers — were all oil-based. We need it in refrigeration, computing, packaging — pretty much everywhere. We are clearly not replacing that in a hurry. Oil is not only a polluting resource and a depleting resource — it’s currently indispensable.

    We could fabricate non-fossil-based polymers of course, but at least at the moment, the cost would be prohibitive. Yet removing it substantially from transport energy would make a very serious contribution to its longevity as a resource and the scope we have to replace it elsewhere.

    Reducing the numbers of vehicles on the roads by getting people onto public transport would be a big step forward. Putting more transport on the grid would be another. Converting heavy shipping to nuclear or some other transport energy not involving fossil fuels would be another. Improving our methods of recycling polymers would help. We have to avoid transporting oil over water as much as possible and avoid recovering it from the sea bed, by slashing demand.

  4. Fran Barlow

    It’s an appalling event — which reminds us of our own recent travails off the coast of WA.

    This is one of the externalities of resort to oil — these periodic “Black Swan” (pun intended) events. You know that they are going to happen, but you can’t know when. When they do, there’s little you can do but prevent the very worst of it, but what you can’t prevent is still devastating. Even the dispersants are themselves a toxic impact on the marine environment.

    Because of its location, if not its size, this could turn out to be the oil industry’s Chernobyl. Unlike Chernobyl, which was the product of a design seen as poor even when it was built by the moribund and unaccountable regime that built and operated it, this platform was very much a high tech effort. Just days before these events I accidentally watched some promo from IBM speaking proudly of the contribution they were making to BPs oil recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico. I wish I’d kept the link. It’s probably been pulled.

    To me, this underlines, again, the pressing need to reduce world consumption of oil. This will be a very difficult thing, and not only because of its role in transport energy. As most know but most of us forget in conversation, oil is every where. I was talking to my 17-year-old about this disaster as we came back from soccer yesterday and I noted the role of oil in every polymer-based product in our lives. His jersey, his shorts, his boots and shinguard, the water bottle in his hand — oil-based; the dashboard of the car, the seals on the door, the seats, the mat, the moulds, the stickers — were all oil-based. We need it in refrigeration, computing, packaging — pretty much everywhere. We are clearly not replacing that in a hurry. Oil is not only a polluting resource and a depleting resource — it’s currently indispensable.

    We could fabricate non-fossil-based polymers of course, but at least at the moment, the cost would be prohibitive. Yet removing it substantially from transport energy would make a very serious contribution to its longevity as a resource and the scope we have to replace it elsewhere.

    Reducing the numbers of vehicles on the roads by getting people onto public transport would be a big step forward. Putting more transport on the grid would be another. Converting heavy shipping to nuclear or some other transport energy not involving fossil fuels would be another. Improving our methods of recycling polymers would help. We have to avoid transporting oil over water as much as possible and avoid recovering it from the sea bed, by slashing demand.

  5. Carlo

    Man’s thirst for oil has led to this; Mr. Obama may well state energy ‘security’ BUT where is your foresight as ‘the leading’ nation in the world !! Industrial nations need to steer clear of the hunger for oil/fossil fuels – the planet will ‘respond’ sooner or later.

  6. Carlo

    Man’s thirst for oil has led to this; Mr. Obama may well state energy ‘security’ BUT where is your foresight as ‘the leading’ nation in the world !! Industrial nations need to steer clear of the hunger for oil/fossil fuels – the planet will ‘respond’ sooner or later.

  7. pablo

    Agree completely with Fran. I have seen little on commentary pointing to the long term issues of whether deep sea drilling is viable. Sure it will slow Obama’s recent moves to open the US east coast and Alaska. The costs stemming from this disaster should be a sobering ‘big picture’ for the US in their mistaken drive for ‘energy independence’. And economically you wonder if it will bankrupt BP.

  8. pablo

    Agree completely with Fran. I have seen little on commentary pointing to the long term issues of whether deep sea drilling is viable. Sure it will slow Obama’s recent moves to open the US east coast and Alaska. The costs stemming from this disaster should be a sobering ‘big picture’ for the US in their mistaken drive for ‘energy independence’. And economically you wonder if it will bankrupt BP.

  9. Fran Barlow

    This just in:

    THE Gulf of Mexico oil spill may be growing five times faster than previously estimated and is in danger of accelerating out of control, it was claimed yesterday.

    Experts said satellite data indicated the oil was gushing from BP’s sunken Deepwater Horizon rig at 25,000 barrels a day. Previous estimates had put the leak at 5,000 barrels a day.

    Oh dear … if so, we pass Exxon Valdez in 11 days … if we go 55 days we are up there with the Kuwait spills of 1991 …

  10. Fran Barlow

    This just in:

    THE Gulf of Mexico oil spill may be growing five times faster than previously estimated and is in danger of accelerating out of control, it was claimed yesterday.

    Experts said satellite data indicated the oil was gushing from BP’s sunken Deepwater Horizon rig at 25,000 barrels a day. Previous estimates had put the leak at 5,000 barrels a day.

    Oh dear … if so, we pass Exxon Valdez in 11 days … if we go 55 days we are up there with the Kuwait spills of 1991 …

  11. John D

    Anyone who has some brilliant idea for solving the current or future crisis might try submitting it here.
    On the positive side the Gulf incident may force a rethink of risk management provisions. For example, if the “dome + inverted funnel” works it may result in a requirement for the installation of such a funnel on all deep drill holes – before anything goes wrong. Alternatively, we might consider setting up mobile units that can collect oil closer to the actual leak rather than waiting for it to reach the surface.
    Agree with the general thrust of what Fran says but doubt any significant reduction will happen in a world of growing demand from the developing world and reluctance in the developed world of people to move to smaller, fuel efficient cars or to demand more durable products.

  12. John D

    Anyone who has some brilliant idea for solving the current or future crisis might try submitting it here.
    On the positive side the Gulf incident may force a rethink of risk management provisions. For example, if the “dome + inverted funnel” works it may result in a requirement for the installation of such a funnel on all deep drill holes – before anything goes wrong. Alternatively, we might consider setting up mobile units that can collect oil closer to the actual leak rather than waiting for it to reach the surface.
    Agree with the general thrust of what Fran says but doubt any significant reduction will happen in a world of growing demand from the developing world and reluctance in the developed world of people to move to smaller, fuel efficient cars or to demand more durable products.

  13. Ken Lovell

    The response from the “drill baby drill” Republicans is likely to be “We’ll make sure it never happens again!” coupled with “See Obama’s Gulf disaster management is even worse than was Bush’s”.

    Also from the more creative, “Obama did it on purpose” (already suggested by Rush Limbaugh).

  14. Ken Lovell

    The response from the “drill baby drill” Republicans is likely to be “We’ll make sure it never happens again!” coupled with “See Obama’s Gulf disaster management is even worse than was Bush’s”.

    Also from the more creative, “Obama did it on purpose” (already suggested by Rush Limbaugh).

  15. Fran Barlow

    At the time of West Atlas, I wondered why we couldn’t have some specially fitted tankers that could have moved in with the equivalent of high capacity vacuum cleaners draw up the oil into holds, filtering the seawater and so forth until the leak could be capped. That this isn’t done suggests it’s either not technically feasible or not considered commercially viable. I’d like to know which of these is the case.

    In the current setting you’d need to be able to filter about 250 gallons per minute. It sounds a lot.

  16. Fran Barlow

    At the time of West Atlas, I wondered why we couldn’t have some specially fitted tankers that could have moved in with the equivalent of high capacity vacuum cleaners draw up the oil into holds, filtering the seawater and so forth until the leak could be capped. That this isn’t done suggests it’s either not technically feasible or not considered commercially viable. I’d like to know which of these is the case.

    In the current setting you’d need to be able to filter about 250 gallons per minute. It sounds a lot.

  17. Mole

    Fran Barlow

    I was reading a mining and oil exploration article on the Australian incident. The company was negligent in that they had only installed 1 of the 2 failsafes they should have on the ocean bed. The other was due to have been installed the same week the leak happenned 9at least thats what the company claimed). In reality they should have suspended producytion until they had installed the 2nd failsafe.

    The American one is levels of magnitude greater, theyve allready activated what should have been the failsafe, (pumping cement/binding agent into area) which hasnt worked. That points to a lack of understanding on the risks involved in the work. BP will be crapping bricks over this, but its most likely not because theyve cut a corner, but theyve been hit by a possability they havent considered. Much worse for them if thats the case.

    Obama hasnt got any blame for this, as long as the rig was running as it should have, and any government inspections for safety were in place, his administration is clean.

    It is unfortunate political timing that this has happenned straight after he announced relaxing restrictions on the areas that could be drilled though.

  18. Mole

    Fran Barlow

    I was reading a mining and oil exploration article on the Australian incident. The company was negligent in that they had only installed 1 of the 2 failsafes they should have on the ocean bed. The other was due to have been installed the same week the leak happenned 9at least thats what the company claimed). In reality they should have suspended producytion until they had installed the 2nd failsafe.

    The American one is levels of magnitude greater, theyve allready activated what should have been the failsafe, (pumping cement/binding agent into area) which hasnt worked. That points to a lack of understanding on the risks involved in the work. BP will be crapping bricks over this, but its most likely not because theyve cut a corner, but theyve been hit by a possability they havent considered. Much worse for them if thats the case.

    Obama hasnt got any blame for this, as long as the rig was running as it should have, and any government inspections for safety were in place, his administration is clean.

    It is unfortunate political timing that this has happenned straight after he announced relaxing restrictions on the areas that could be drilled though.

  19. Fran Barlow

    With apologies to David Bowie

    Spill, baby, Spill,
    show me your oil
    Burn, baby, burn,
    do what you will
    Smear, baby, smear,
    from the seabed
    Bury those wetlands
    Until they’re all dead

  20. Fran Barlow

    With apologies to David Bowie

    Spill, baby, Spill,
    show me your oil
    Burn, baby, burn,
    do what you will
    Smear, baby, smear,
    from the seabed
    Bury those wetlands
    Until they’re all dead

  21. paul walter

    Yes, Ken lovell- that’s how I feel about it, too. Angry and frustrated and heard it all before. Same old corporate psychopaths, same old problems,same gutless government responses.

  22. paul walter

    Yes, Ken lovell- that’s how I feel about it, too. Angry and frustrated and heard it all before. Same old corporate psychopaths, same old problems,same gutless government responses.

  23. Shaun

    Ok, right comment thread this time. Now, why won’t anyone do some something about the North Korean subs.

  24. Shaun

    Ok, right comment thread this time. Now, why won’t anyone do some something about the North Korean subs.

  25. Brian

    Shaun, I’ve fixed the link which was broken. The guts of it is this:

    On the night of April 20th the North Korean Mini Submarine manned by these “suicidal” 17th Sniper Corps soldiers attacked the Deepwater Horizon with what are believed to be 2 incendiary torpedoes causing a massive explosion and resulting in 11 workers on this giant oil rig being killed outright. Barely 48 hours later, on April 22nd , this North Korean Mini Submarine committed its final atrocity by exploding itself directly beneath the Deepwater Horizon causing this $1 Billion oil rig to sink beneath the seas and marking 2010’s celebration of Earth Day with one of the largest environmental catastrophes our World has ever seen.

    To the reason for North Korea attacking the Deepwater Horizon, these reports say, was to present US President Obama with an “impossible dilemma” prior to the opening of the United Nations Review Conference of the Parties to the Treat on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) set to begin May 3rd in New York.

    This “impossible dilemma” facing Obama is indeed real as the decision he is faced with is either to allow the continuation of this massive oil leak catastrophe to continue for months, or immediately stop it by the only known and proven means possible, the detonation of a thermonuclear device.

    If the report is true, it’s dynamite, excuse the pun!

  26. Brian

    Shaun, I’ve fixed the link which was broken. The guts of it is this:

    On the night of April 20th the North Korean Mini Submarine manned by these “suicidal” 17th Sniper Corps soldiers attacked the Deepwater Horizon with what are believed to be 2 incendiary torpedoes causing a massive explosion and resulting in 11 workers on this giant oil rig being killed outright. Barely 48 hours later, on April 22nd , this North Korean Mini Submarine committed its final atrocity by exploding itself directly beneath the Deepwater Horizon causing this $1 Billion oil rig to sink beneath the seas and marking 2010’s celebration of Earth Day with one of the largest environmental catastrophes our World has ever seen.

    To the reason for North Korea attacking the Deepwater Horizon, these reports say, was to present US President Obama with an “impossible dilemma” prior to the opening of the United Nations Review Conference of the Parties to the Treat on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) set to begin May 3rd in New York.

    This “impossible dilemma” facing Obama is indeed real as the decision he is faced with is either to allow the continuation of this massive oil leak catastrophe to continue for months, or immediately stop it by the only known and proven means possible, the detonation of a thermonuclear device.

    If the report is true, it’s dynamite, excuse the pun!

  27. Brian

    Fran @ 4, that’s the second time they’ve upgraded the estimated flow five-fold.

    Years ago I heard the case put that oil is too useful to burn.

    On Ockam’s Razor today Dr Michael Lardelli from the University of Adelaide looks at how peak oil production has already passed – in 2008.

    I think I heard that the well in this case was 5km deep. From memory they have discovered a filed off Brazil that is 6km down. There is talk of hydrocarbons under the Arctic ice sheet as well as under the Ross ice shelf in the Antarctic. Sooner or later as they exploit the last drop bad stuff is bound to happen.

  28. Brian

    Fran @ 4, that’s the second time they’ve upgraded the estimated flow five-fold.

    Years ago I heard the case put that oil is too useful to burn.

    On Ockam’s Razor today Dr Michael Lardelli from the University of Adelaide looks at how peak oil production has already passed – in 2008.

    I think I heard that the well in this case was 5km deep. From memory they have discovered a filed off Brazil that is 6km down. There is talk of hydrocarbons under the Arctic ice sheet as well as under the Ross ice shelf in the Antarctic. Sooner or later as they exploit the last drop bad stuff is bound to happen.

  29. danny

    “IBM speaking proudly of the contribution they were making to BPs oil recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico.” …

    File that with

    “IBM speaking proudly of the contribution they were making to wage delivery efforts in Queensland Health”.

  30. danny

    “IBM speaking proudly of the contribution they were making to BPs oil recovery efforts in the Gulf of Mexico.” …

    File that with

    “IBM speaking proudly of the contribution they were making to wage delivery efforts in Queensland Health”.

  31. David Irving (no relation)

    Brian @ 14, Ken Deffeyes claims it happened at the end of 2005. Dr Lardelli probably didn’t allow for lag.

  32. David Irving (no relation)

    Brian @ 14, Ken Deffeyes claims it happened at the end of 2005. Dr Lardelli probably didn’t allow for lag.

  33. Lin

    There seems to be a chance that the blowout was not caused so much by BP as by its subcontractor, Haliburton Inc.

    Although the cause of the explosion was under investigation, many of the more than two dozen lawsuits filed in the wake of the explosion claim it was caused when workers for oil services contractor Halliburton Inc. improperly capped the well — a process known as cementing. Halliburton denied it.

    That from The Associated Press. There are more facts in the article that are worth reading.

  34. Lin

    There seems to be a chance that the blowout was not caused so much by BP as by its subcontractor, Haliburton Inc.

    Although the cause of the explosion was under investigation, many of the more than two dozen lawsuits filed in the wake of the explosion claim it was caused when workers for oil services contractor Halliburton Inc. improperly capped the well — a process known as cementing. Halliburton denied it.

    That from The Associated Press. There are more facts in the article that are worth reading.

  35. JWise

    THINK THIS WAS AN ACCIDENT IN THE GULF AT THE FAULT OF AMERICA? READ THIS!!!

    http://dailypaul.com/node/133339

  36. JWise

    THINK THIS WAS AN ACCIDENT IN THE GULF AT THE FAULT OF AMERICA? READ THIS!!!

    http://dailypaul.com/node/133339

  37. Brian

    JWise, that’s just a bad copy of the link provided by Shaun @ 12 above.

    I could agree with TexasFred:

    This is NOT out of the realm of possibility, but Russian Intel has been known to spin a *tall tale* on occasion…

    but most commenters seem to think the story is a hoax.

  38. Brian

    JWise, that’s just a bad copy of the link provided by Shaun @ 12 above.

    I could agree with TexasFred:

    This is NOT out of the realm of possibility, but Russian Intel has been known to spin a *tall tale* on occasion…

    but most commenters seem to think the story is a hoax.

  39. Brian F

    all they need to do is make a large version say many tons of weight,of your oil funnel you use to put oil in your car.Turn this massive funnel upside down over the leak.Then attatch a pipe that brings that oil to a tanker ship.

    Seems simple to me.Why would this not be an obvious thing to try.

    Brian

  40. Brian F

    all they need to do is make a large version say many tons of weight,of your oil funnel you use to put oil in your car.Turn this massive funnel upside down over the leak.Then attatch a pipe that brings that oil to a tanker ship.

    Seems simple to me.Why would this not be an obvious thing to try.

    Brian

  41. Paul Burns

    Of course its a fucking hoax. Not even the North Koreans would be that stupid.

  42. Paul Burns

    Of course its a fucking hoax. Not even the North Koreans would be that stupid.

  43. Brian

    Paul, it reminds me of a story that accompanied the invasion of Iraq where Russian intelligence was purporting to reveal that the Americans were actually doing badly while advancing on Baghdad. It was much more plausible than the famous Iraqi Minister for Information who came to the fore a little later.

  44. Brian

    Paul, it reminds me of a story that accompanied the invasion of Iraq where Russian intelligence was purporting to reveal that the Americans were actually doing badly while advancing on Baghdad. It was much more plausible than the famous Iraqi Minister for Information who came to the fore a little later.

  45. Jacques de Molay

    *sigh*

    “Human beings as a species have no more value than slugs”.

  46. Jacques de Molay

    *sigh*

    “Human beings as a species have no more value than slugs”.

  47. Brian

    Brian F @ 20, as I said in the post, I understand that they are making an inverted tunnel. It’s just that it takes weeks.

  48. Brian

    Brian F @ 20, as I said in the post, I understand that they are making an inverted tunnel. It’s just that it takes weeks.

  49. JWise

    If its a hoax, then why has Obama deployed federal SWAT teams to “investigate” EVERY oil rig in the gulf coast already? This is very possible and a very major disaster already causing serious damage to the U.S. and South Korea! The North Korean ship that left Cuba was already proven to veer severely off course and was tracked to just outside 200 miles of the oil rig! I live on the east coast of Florida and they are already talking about the oil reaching our shores in the next few days. IF North Korea is responsible for this, I want swift action!

  50. JWise

    If its a hoax, then why has Obama deployed federal SWAT teams to “investigate” EVERY oil rig in the gulf coast already? This is very possible and a very major disaster already causing serious damage to the U.S. and South Korea! The North Korean ship that left Cuba was already proven to veer severely off course and was tracked to just outside 200 miles of the oil rig! I live on the east coast of Florida and they are already talking about the oil reaching our shores in the next few days. IF North Korea is responsible for this, I want swift action!

  51. joe2

    “Brian F @ 20, as I said in the post, I understand that they are making an inverted tunnel. It’s just that it takes weeks.”

    How come they are not forced to have some arrangement, set up in advance, for such an eventuality? Same as when the stuff up happened here, they seem to be running around without an organised back up plan ready to roll out straight away.

  52. joe2

    “Brian F @ 20, as I said in the post, I understand that they are making an inverted tunnel. It’s just that it takes weeks.”

    How come they are not forced to have some arrangement, set up in advance, for such an eventuality? Same as when the stuff up happened here, they seem to be running around without an organised back up plan ready to roll out straight away.

  53. Brian

    Well, joe2, dollars, hubris and an inappropriate attitude to risk, I suppose. Surely things will change after this one. Afterall, there have been many large oil spills, but the location of this one might stimulate policy makers to learn a lesson.

  54. Brian

    Well, joe2, dollars, hubris and an inappropriate attitude to risk, I suppose. Surely things will change after this one. Afterall, there have been many large oil spills, but the location of this one might stimulate policy makers to learn a lesson.

  55. Paul Burns

    JWise @ 25.
    It must be a terrible situation with people like yourself living on the Gulf Coast and my heart goes out to you.
    Now, re the North Koreans. My money is on the much more realistic option of the Halliburton contractor having stuffed up really really badly.They have lots of form in Iraq. (I also think Cuba would not be that silly to support a sabotage attempt that could be so easily sheeted back to them, especially, since, I gather, relations between Cuba and the US have improved slightly, which can only be good for both parties. My impressions re Cuba may be wrong, I grant you, as being on the spot in Florida, you would know a lot more about US-Cuban relations than me.)
    As for the SWAT teams. While from way over here this looks like an American over-reaction, it seems to me its a normal precaution in such a major crisis. Your President is duty bound to cover every possibility, and no doubt he has been advised to do this by people in his administration who share America’s probably well-founded fear of attack from outside, after 9/11. Over the top as it might seem from an Australian perspective, if Obama did not take such a precaution he would undoubtedly be castigated for it by your right wing loonies.

  56. Paul Burns

    JWise @ 25.
    It must be a terrible situation with people like yourself living on the Gulf Coast and my heart goes out to you.
    Now, re the North Koreans. My money is on the much more realistic option of the Halliburton contractor having stuffed up really really badly.They have lots of form in Iraq. (I also think Cuba would not be that silly to support a sabotage attempt that could be so easily sheeted back to them, especially, since, I gather, relations between Cuba and the US have improved slightly, which can only be good for both parties. My impressions re Cuba may be wrong, I grant you, as being on the spot in Florida, you would know a lot more about US-Cuban relations than me.)
    As for the SWAT teams. While from way over here this looks like an American over-reaction, it seems to me its a normal precaution in such a major crisis. Your President is duty bound to cover every possibility, and no doubt he has been advised to do this by people in his administration who share America’s probably well-founded fear of attack from outside, after 9/11. Over the top as it might seem from an Australian perspective, if Obama did not take such a precaution he would undoubtedly be castigated for it by your right wing loonies.

  57. kuke
  58. kuke
  59. Tim Macknay

    It looks like the US Climate Bill could be another casualty of this disaster. The Bill included proposals to expand offshore drilling (which was a concession to get pro-industry votes) which now appear untenable.

    Brian @14 and DI(NR) @16, I don’t know why distinguished professors are always in such a hurry to declare that peak oil has arrived. You’d think they’d follow their own advice and wait for a few consecutive years of confirmed lower production before calling it.

  60. Tim Macknay

    It looks like the US Climate Bill could be another casualty of this disaster. The Bill included proposals to expand offshore drilling (which was a concession to get pro-industry votes) which now appear untenable.

    Brian @14 and DI(NR) @16, I don’t know why distinguished professors are always in such a hurry to declare that peak oil has arrived. You’d think they’d follow their own advice and wait for a few consecutive years of confirmed lower production before calling it.

  61. Fran Barlow

    I’m not even sure why “peak oil” is all that interesting.

    Not only is Tim right when he says “peak oil” only something knowable with several years of hindsight, but fluctuations in demand are lkarger than the volatiulity in output. Sooner or later, oil will become unviable at current demand and we will probably get there before “peak oil” (or author it in that very process).

  62. Fran Barlow

    I’m not even sure why “peak oil” is all that interesting.

    Not only is Tim right when he says “peak oil” only something knowable with several years of hindsight, but fluctuations in demand are lkarger than the volatiulity in output. Sooner or later, oil will become unviable at current demand and we will probably get there before “peak oil” (or author it in that very process).

  63. David G

    J.Wise, you are obviously another victim of American propaganda. You have many friends, perhaps 300 million of them. What swift action do you want? I know, the nuking of North Korea!

    That you could conceivably see North Korea as the guilty party is preposterous.

    It was obviously Iran!

  64. David G

    J.Wise, you are obviously another victim of American propaganda. You have many friends, perhaps 300 million of them. What swift action do you want? I know, the nuking of North Korea!

    That you could conceivably see North Korea as the guilty party is preposterous.

    It was obviously Iran!

  65. Tim Macknay

    …American propaganda

    Actually, it seems to have been copied from a bizarre conspiracy/hoax web site.

    The article seems to be claiming that the only “known and proven” way of stopping the oil leak is by the detonation of a thermonuclear device. That’s just nuts.

  66. Tim Macknay

    …American propaganda

    Actually, it seems to have been copied from a bizarre conspiracy/hoax web site.

    The article seems to be claiming that the only “known and proven” way of stopping the oil leak is by the detonation of a thermonuclear device. That’s just nuts.

  67. Margi Prideaux

    For my two cents worth the blame for this mess is spread between two parties – industry and Government.
    Both colors of politics in Australia and the US have utterly failed in the responsibilities to regulate. BP has meanwhile moved itself beyond state control with the power of its economy.
    You may have heard the spin from the Lamar McKay (BP America Chairman) saying that stopping the leak is like performing “open heart surgery at 5,000 feet in the dark with robot-controlled submarines”. Much of the US media is now woven around their sweet words of ‘technical difficulty’ that BP become the saints, absolved on the wrong in the first place. Seems few are willing to as why they weren’t better prepared when such a recent incident as the Timor spill would have indicated they should be.
    I would have thought the Timor spill from late last year would have caused at least some change of practice (similar type of blow out), such that maybe … just maybe … they might have invested in more/better containment equipment closer to hand … instead of it all being weeks away. Nothing changes, because Governments believe they are a safe risk, not worth upsetting
    Meanwhile, our own Montara Commission of Inquiry is only looking into who is to blame – not the impact caused – seems to be a slightly pointless exercise really!

  68. Margi Prideaux

    For my two cents worth the blame for this mess is spread between two parties – industry and Government.
    Both colors of politics in Australia and the US have utterly failed in the responsibilities to regulate. BP has meanwhile moved itself beyond state control with the power of its economy.
    You may have heard the spin from the Lamar McKay (BP America Chairman) saying that stopping the leak is like performing “open heart surgery at 5,000 feet in the dark with robot-controlled submarines”. Much of the US media is now woven around their sweet words of ‘technical difficulty’ that BP become the saints, absolved on the wrong in the first place. Seems few are willing to as why they weren’t better prepared when such a recent incident as the Timor spill would have indicated they should be.
    I would have thought the Timor spill from late last year would have caused at least some change of practice (similar type of blow out), such that maybe … just maybe … they might have invested in more/better containment equipment closer to hand … instead of it all being weeks away. Nothing changes, because Governments believe they are a safe risk, not worth upsetting
    Meanwhile, our own Montara Commission of Inquiry is only looking into who is to blame – not the impact caused – seems to be a slightly pointless exercise really!

  69. Brian

    There was plenty of talk about this incident on radio news bulletins today.

    The inverted tunnel thing is going to take at least 8 days to build and get into place. It won’t stop all leaking.

    Drilling the relief well, which will fix it, will take about 90 days.

    That well is going to have to be three and a half miles (I make that five and a half kms) deep.

    Clean up on the shore line is going to be undertaken by BP, which strikes me as a bit odd. Normally you’d think the civil authorities would be in charge.

  70. Brian

    There was plenty of talk about this incident on radio news bulletins today.

    The inverted tunnel thing is going to take at least 8 days to build and get into place. It won’t stop all leaking.

    Drilling the relief well, which will fix it, will take about 90 days.

    That well is going to have to be three and a half miles (I make that five and a half kms) deep.

    Clean up on the shore line is going to be undertaken by BP, which strikes me as a bit odd. Normally you’d think the civil authorities would be in charge.

  71. Brian

    You may have heard the spin from the Lamar McKay (BP America Chairman) saying that stopping the leak is like performing “open heart surgery at 5,000 feet in the dark with robot-controlled submarines”.

    Margi, I think this refers to a valve on the sea floor, 1500 metres down, which was supposed to shut off when things went pear-shaped, but failed to operate. They’ve been trying ever since with robots to get it to work. It sounds a bit forlorn.

    This valve seems to have been their main (only?) defence. I’m sure they will be keen to find out why the damned thing didn’t work.

  72. Brian

    You may have heard the spin from the Lamar McKay (BP America Chairman) saying that stopping the leak is like performing “open heart surgery at 5,000 feet in the dark with robot-controlled submarines”.

    Margi, I think this refers to a valve on the sea floor, 1500 metres down, which was supposed to shut off when things went pear-shaped, but failed to operate. They’ve been trying ever since with robots to get it to work. It sounds a bit forlorn.

    This valve seems to have been their main (only?) defence. I’m sure they will be keen to find out why the damned thing didn’t work.

  73. Margi Prideaux

    Brian @36, agreed. Yes, that is what the quote referred to. It was that they received sainthood from parts of the US media for trying that I took objection.
    Please don’t misunderstand me, I don’t doubt that they are doing everything they can now that the accident has happened.
    Why they weren’t better prepared is the question I think everyone should be asking now.
    It’s not as if they can honestly claim that deep sea drilling is a nil risk operation.

  74. Margi Prideaux

    Brian @36, agreed. Yes, that is what the quote referred to. It was that they received sainthood from parts of the US media for trying that I took objection.
    Please don’t misunderstand me, I don’t doubt that they are doing everything they can now that the accident has happened.
    Why they weren’t better prepared is the question I think everyone should be asking now.
    It’s not as if they can honestly claim that deep sea drilling is a nil risk operation.

  75. David Irving (no relation)

    Margi @ 37, BP weren’t the operator, just one of the joint venture partners. This means they have quite a few layers between them and actual culpability, a bit like the way Santos is not directly responsible for that mud volcanoe in Indonesia.

    To be fair, it’s difficult for anyone but the operator to make sure the well is safe, but that’s probably exactly why BP made sure they weren’t the operator.

  76. David Irving (no relation)

    Margi @ 37, BP weren’t the operator, just one of the joint venture partners. This means they have quite a few layers between them and actual culpability, a bit like the way Santos is not directly responsible for that mud volcanoe in Indonesia.

    To be fair, it’s difficult for anyone but the operator to make sure the well is safe, but that’s probably exactly why BP made sure they weren’t the operator.

  77. Elise

    Tim Macknay @33: “The article seems to be claiming that the only “known and proven” way of stopping the oil leak is by the detonation of a thermonuclear device. That’s just nuts.”

    I reckon so. NUTS.

    A thermonuclear explosion would probably fracture the formation in the vicinity and create even more uncontrolled channels for the oil to flow to the surface. Nuts.

    Incidentally, here is a very good example of why we shouldn’t consider drilling for oil under the Great Barrier Reef. Even just one accident could be a disaster.

    Fran suggests that we actually need to wean ourselves off oil. Totally agree.

    Unfortunately for us all, this will be accomplished sooner than we think, and not in a controlled fashion. “Burn Up” on ABC the last 2 weeks had more elements of truth in it than I reckon most people would be prepared to entertain.

    Many economists seem to think that oil deposits are ultimately created by the laws of supply and demand, rather than the laws of physics. They are about to be proven wrong, yet again.

    Wrong on GFC, wrong on negligible impact of countries going effectively bankrupt, wrong on global oil supplies. What next? Maybe a few economist’s sacred cows should be taken out the back, and put out to pasture?

  78. Elise

    Tim Macknay @33: “The article seems to be claiming that the only “known and proven” way of stopping the oil leak is by the detonation of a thermonuclear device. That’s just nuts.”

    I reckon so. NUTS.

    A thermonuclear explosion would probably fracture the formation in the vicinity and create even more uncontrolled channels for the oil to flow to the surface. Nuts.

    Incidentally, here is a very good example of why we shouldn’t consider drilling for oil under the Great Barrier Reef. Even just one accident could be a disaster.

    Fran suggests that we actually need to wean ourselves off oil. Totally agree.

    Unfortunately for us all, this will be accomplished sooner than we think, and not in a controlled fashion. “Burn Up” on ABC the last 2 weeks had more elements of truth in it than I reckon most people would be prepared to entertain.

    Many economists seem to think that oil deposits are ultimately created by the laws of supply and demand, rather than the laws of physics. They are about to be proven wrong, yet again.

    Wrong on GFC, wrong on negligible impact of countries going effectively bankrupt, wrong on global oil supplies. What next? Maybe a few economist’s sacred cows should be taken out the back, and put out to pasture?

  79. Elise

    JohnD @6: “Anyone who has some brilliant idea for solving the current or future crisis…”

    No brilliant idea for stopping the flow, except drilling the “relief well”. It all depends on where exactly the leak is coming from, of course.

    Does anyone here know what originally caused the explosion? For example, did they hit a large fracture/fault during drilling and get total mud losses, or did they hit an interval with unpredicted very high pressures causing a blowout?

    In terms of cleanup, I believe that this is “light” crude, compared with the heavy crude carried by the Exxon Valdez. Some microbes actually consider light crude as potential food.

    These microbes live in the polluted grounds around poorly managed oil refineries and onshore oil fields. Has anyone looked at collecting and cultivating these little critters, and asking them nicely to go have a party along the shoreline as the oil washes ashore? Not being a microbiologist, I don’t know the feasibility of this concept, but the potential disaster is large enough that even whacky ideas might be worth considering?

  80. Elise

    JohnD @6: “Anyone who has some brilliant idea for solving the current or future crisis…”

    No brilliant idea for stopping the flow, except drilling the “relief well”. It all depends on where exactly the leak is coming from, of course.

    Does anyone here know what originally caused the explosion? For example, did they hit a large fracture/fault during drilling and get total mud losses, or did they hit an interval with unpredicted very high pressures causing a blowout?

    In terms of cleanup, I believe that this is “light” crude, compared with the heavy crude carried by the Exxon Valdez. Some microbes actually consider light crude as potential food.

    These microbes live in the polluted grounds around poorly managed oil refineries and onshore oil fields. Has anyone looked at collecting and cultivating these little critters, and asking them nicely to go have a party along the shoreline as the oil washes ashore? Not being a microbiologist, I don’t know the feasibility of this concept, but the potential disaster is large enough that even whacky ideas might be worth considering?

  81. Elise

    Further to the link provided by Lin @17, which includes this comment:

    “According to a 2007 study by the federal Minerals Management Service, which examined the 39 rig blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico between 1992 and 2006, cementing was a contributing factor in 18 of the incidents. In all the cases, gas seepage occurred during or after cementing of the well casing, the MMS said.”

    For those who haven’t worked in this area, the well casing is the steel pipe which is cemented against the rock face. Put simply, they drill the hole, then connect up a long string of piping which is lowered down the well. They then pump cement down the pipe, and it flows back up the annulus between the pipe and the rock face, to fix the pipe in place and seal off the oil or gas-bearing layers.

    So, how do you get oil out of this nicely sealed-off arrangement? When you want to produce the well, you lower down remote-controlled “guns” and shoot holes right through the steel piping and cement, into the formation (rock) in the areas selected. The oil and gas can then flow into the pipe and up to the platform in a controlled manner, if everything goes according to plan.

    People like JohnD and others who have worked with pumping cement will know that it can be difficult to get it to flow evenly up the annulus. It can form channels, which then leave a path for the oil and gas to bypass the piping and flow up the annulus, rather than being trapped within its layer behind the piping and cement.

    If pressures aren’t maintained during cement placement, above the pressure of fluids in the rock, then the oil &/or gas can flow into the cement and up the annulus, which will enhance the formation of channels in the cement.

    Furthermore, the rock might also be fractured behind the pipe, providing alternative fluid pathways. The fracturing might even provide an oil and gas pathway right up to the surface.

    When you think about the things that can go wrong, it is rather amazing that it mostly goes right. Could be a “Black Swan” as Fran suggests, or could be poor procedures. Those involved in planning and drilling the well would probably prefer to think it was the former.

  82. Elise

    Further to the link provided by Lin @17, which includes this comment:

    “According to a 2007 study by the federal Minerals Management Service, which examined the 39 rig blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico between 1992 and 2006, cementing was a contributing factor in 18 of the incidents. In all the cases, gas seepage occurred during or after cementing of the well casing, the MMS said.”

    For those who haven’t worked in this area, the well casing is the steel pipe which is cemented against the rock face. Put simply, they drill the hole, then connect up a long string of piping which is lowered down the well. They then pump cement down the pipe, and it flows back up the annulus between the pipe and the rock face, to fix the pipe in place and seal off the oil or gas-bearing layers.

    So, how do you get oil out of this nicely sealed-off arrangement? When you want to produce the well, you lower down remote-controlled “guns” and shoot holes right through the steel piping and cement, into the formation (rock) in the areas selected. The oil and gas can then flow into the pipe and up to the platform in a controlled manner, if everything goes according to plan.

    People like JohnD and others who have worked with pumping cement will know that it can be difficult to get it to flow evenly up the annulus. It can form channels, which then leave a path for the oil and gas to bypass the piping and flow up the annulus, rather than being trapped within its layer behind the piping and cement.

    If pressures aren’t maintained during cement placement, above the pressure of fluids in the rock, then the oil &/or gas can flow into the cement and up the annulus, which will enhance the formation of channels in the cement.

    Furthermore, the rock might also be fractured behind the pipe, providing alternative fluid pathways. The fracturing might even provide an oil and gas pathway right up to the surface.

    When you think about the things that can go wrong, it is rather amazing that it mostly goes right. Could be a “Black Swan” as Fran suggests, or could be poor procedures. Those involved in planning and drilling the well would probably prefer to think it was the former.

  83. Fran Barlow

    Alternet’s Seven most stupid things said about the oil spill

    And yes, Palin was still pitching Drill baby Drill!

  84. Fran Barlow

    Alternet’s Seven most stupid things said about the oil spill

    And yes, Palin was still pitching Drill baby Drill!

  85. Brian

    Elise, thanks for the explanation of how the wells are cased and cemented in.

    Margi @ 37, I agree with you. Company spokes-people tend to spin like it’s second nature.

    I see you posted on the incident at your blog and included a reference on the impact of fishing.

    A bit off topic, but you seem to be interested in the oceans. If you haven’t seen Alanna Mitchell’s book I can recommend it, though it will surely make you sick.

  86. Brian

    Elise, thanks for the explanation of how the wells are cased and cemented in.

    Margi @ 37, I agree with you. Company spokes-people tend to spin like it’s second nature.

    I see you posted on the incident at your blog and included a reference on the impact of fishing.

    A bit off topic, but you seem to be interested in the oceans. If you haven’t seen Alanna Mitchell’s book I can recommend it, though it will surely make you sick.

  87. Brian

    Elise @ 40:

    Does anyone here know what originally caused the explosion? For example, did they hit a large fracture/fault during drilling and get total mud losses, or did they hit an interval with unpredicted very high pressures causing a blowout?

    Joe Romm at Climate Progress has two posts with links suggesting that they were drilling too deep and cost cutting on safety measures, which they suggest is habitual.

    From the latest thread, a suggestion that Transocean use The Marshall Islands (comment 6) as a ‘flags of convenience’ that Schwarzenegger withdrew his support for drilling off the California coast and that Watts Up With That? has a post with technical information from someone “in the know”, plus some spectacular photos. The comments thread of the Watts post has many links, including more photos and the official response site.

    The Watts Up With That? post includes this:

    It is thought that somehow formation fluids – oil /gas – got into the wellbore and were undetected until it was too late to take action. With a floating drilling rig setup, because it moves with the waves, currents, and winds, all of the main pressure control equipment sits on the seabed – the uppermost unmoving point in the well. This pressure control equipment – the Blowout Preventers, or ‘BOP’s” as they’re called, are controlled with redundant systems from the rig. In the event of a serious emergency, there are multiple Panic Buttons to hit, and even fail-safe Deadman systems that should be automatically engaged when something of this proportion breaks out. None of them were aparently activated, suggesting that the blowout was especially swift to escalate at the surface. The flames were visible up to about 35 miles away. Not the glow – the flames. They were 200 – 300 ft high.

    All of this will be investigated and it will be some months before all of the particulars are known. For now, it is enough to say that this marvel of modern technology, which had been operating with an excellent safety record, has burned up and sunk taking souls with it.

  88. Brian

    Elise @ 40:

    Does anyone here know what originally caused the explosion? For example, did they hit a large fracture/fault during drilling and get total mud losses, or did they hit an interval with unpredicted very high pressures causing a blowout?

    Joe Romm at Climate Progress has two posts with links suggesting that they were drilling too deep and cost cutting on safety measures, which they suggest is habitual.

    From the latest thread, a suggestion that Transocean use The Marshall Islands (comment 6) as a ‘flags of convenience’ that Schwarzenegger withdrew his support for drilling off the California coast and that Watts Up With That? has a post with technical information from someone “in the know”, plus some spectacular photos. The comments thread of the Watts post has many links, including more photos and the official response site.

    The Watts Up With That? post includes this:

    It is thought that somehow formation fluids – oil /gas – got into the wellbore and were undetected until it was too late to take action. With a floating drilling rig setup, because it moves with the waves, currents, and winds, all of the main pressure control equipment sits on the seabed – the uppermost unmoving point in the well. This pressure control equipment – the Blowout Preventers, or ‘BOP’s” as they’re called, are controlled with redundant systems from the rig. In the event of a serious emergency, there are multiple Panic Buttons to hit, and even fail-safe Deadman systems that should be automatically engaged when something of this proportion breaks out. None of them were aparently activated, suggesting that the blowout was especially swift to escalate at the surface. The flames were visible up to about 35 miles away. Not the glow – the flames. They were 200 – 300 ft high.

    All of this will be investigated and it will be some months before all of the particulars are known. For now, it is enough to say that this marvel of modern technology, which had been operating with an excellent safety record, has burned up and sunk taking souls with it.

  89. Brian

    Yet another post from Climate Progress.

    Actually if you scroll back through there is a stack of them.

    Here’s an animation.

  90. Brian

    Yet another post from Climate Progress.

    Actually if you scroll back through there is a stack of them.

    Here’s an animation.

  91. Elise

    Brian @44, thanks for the extra links.

    “For now, it is enough to say that this marvel of modern technology, which had been operating with an excellent safety record, has burned up and sunk taking souls with it.”

    We could hazard a guess that at least one species will thrive as a result of the disaster: lawyers. A lot of the key evidence has burned up and sunk – now scattered in small bits on the sea floor… Key witnesses with detailed knowledge of the events leading up to the blowout have perished… A humungous lot of compensation money is at stake….

    Does this not provide the mother of all opportunities for speculation and counter-speculation by lawyers on all sides?

    A veritable feeding frenzy for one species at least?

  92. Elise

    Brian @44, thanks for the extra links.

    “For now, it is enough to say that this marvel of modern technology, which had been operating with an excellent safety record, has burned up and sunk taking souls with it.”

    We could hazard a guess that at least one species will thrive as a result of the disaster: lawyers. A lot of the key evidence has burned up and sunk – now scattered in small bits on the sea floor… Key witnesses with detailed knowledge of the events leading up to the blowout have perished… A humungous lot of compensation money is at stake….

    Does this not provide the mother of all opportunities for speculation and counter-speculation by lawyers on all sides?

    A veritable feeding frenzy for one species at least?

  93. BilB

    I found this over where the greener oil men and menettes hang

    FWIW….found this last nite…..

    http://www.northeastshooters.com/vbulletin/showthread.php/99645-Deepwate...

    Deepwater Horizon Info
    This is from a friend….

    > Terry xxxxxxx, who works for ADTI, had a son who was one of the BP Company
    > reps on the Horizon when the incident occurred. Here’s what he sent me.
    >
    > TALKED TO MY SON, HE IS AT HOME NOW, AND IN GOOD SHAPE, WHAT I WAS TOLD WAS
    > THEY HAD SET A 9-5/8 TAPERED PRODUCTION LINER, DID THEIR CEMENT JOB, HAD
    > POSITIVE TESTED, AND ALSO NEGITIVE TESTED, THEY WERE GOING TO SET A BALANCED
    > PLUG AROUND 3000′ BELOW THE WELL HEAD WHICH WOULD BE AT ABOUT 8000′, THE
    > SENIOR COMPANY MAN WANTED TO SET THE BALANCED PLUG IN MUD, BUT THE ENGINEERS
    > WANTED TO DISPLACE WITH WATER PRIOR TO SETTING BALANCED PLUG, SO THEY
    > DISPLACED FROM 3000′ BELOW MUD LINE, AND WERE GETTING READY TO SET PLUG. THE
    > DERRICKMAN CALLED THE DRILLER AND SAID HE NEEDED HELP, HE HAD MUD GOING
    > EVERYWHERE, AND ABOUT THIS TIME THE DRILL FLOOR DISAPEARED, THEN THERE WAS
    > AN EXPLOSION, THEN A SECOND EXPLOSION.
    >
    > THE FLAMES ARE NOW GOING STRAIGHT UP ALLOWING EVACUATION OF MEN, THEN YOU
    > KNOW THE REST.
    >
    > THE HANDS THAT ARE MISSING ARE THE ONES THAT WERE ON THE DRILL FLOOR AND
    > PUMP ROOM. YOU KNOW THE RESULTS OF THAT. THIS ALL TOOK PLACE IN LESS THAN A
    > MINUTE.
    >
    > RIG WAS EVACUATED IN ABOUT 25 MINUTES.
    >
    > IT IS BELIVED THAT THE SEAL ASSEMBLY AT THE WELL HEAD GAVE UP. IF THAT IS
    > THE CASE AND THEY WOULD HAVE SET THE BALANCED PLUG IN MUD THEN DISPLACED THE
    > RISER, IT WOULD ONLY HAVE DELAYED WHAT HAPPENED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
    >
    > GAS MUST HAVE CHANNELLED THROUGH THE CEMENT JOB AND UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE
    > 9-5/8 PRODUCTION CASING.
    >
    > THIS IS ALL I KNOW AT PRESENT.

  94. BilB

    I found this over where the greener oil men and menettes hang

    FWIW….found this last nite…..

    http://www.northeastshooters.com/vbulletin/showthread.php/99645-Deepwate...

    Deepwater Horizon Info
    This is from a friend….

    > Terry xxxxxxx, who works for ADTI, had a son who was one of the BP Company
    > reps on the Horizon when the incident occurred. Here’s what he sent me.
    >
    > TALKED TO MY SON, HE IS AT HOME NOW, AND IN GOOD SHAPE, WHAT I WAS TOLD WAS
    > THEY HAD SET A 9-5/8 TAPERED PRODUCTION LINER, DID THEIR CEMENT JOB, HAD
    > POSITIVE TESTED, AND ALSO NEGITIVE TESTED, THEY WERE GOING TO SET A BALANCED
    > PLUG AROUND 3000′ BELOW THE WELL HEAD WHICH WOULD BE AT ABOUT 8000′, THE
    > SENIOR COMPANY MAN WANTED TO SET THE BALANCED PLUG IN MUD, BUT THE ENGINEERS
    > WANTED TO DISPLACE WITH WATER PRIOR TO SETTING BALANCED PLUG, SO THEY
    > DISPLACED FROM 3000′ BELOW MUD LINE, AND WERE GETTING READY TO SET PLUG. THE
    > DERRICKMAN CALLED THE DRILLER AND SAID HE NEEDED HELP, HE HAD MUD GOING
    > EVERYWHERE, AND ABOUT THIS TIME THE DRILL FLOOR DISAPEARED, THEN THERE WAS
    > AN EXPLOSION, THEN A SECOND EXPLOSION.
    >
    > THE FLAMES ARE NOW GOING STRAIGHT UP ALLOWING EVACUATION OF MEN, THEN YOU
    > KNOW THE REST.
    >
    > THE HANDS THAT ARE MISSING ARE THE ONES THAT WERE ON THE DRILL FLOOR AND
    > PUMP ROOM. YOU KNOW THE RESULTS OF THAT. THIS ALL TOOK PLACE IN LESS THAN A
    > MINUTE.
    >
    > RIG WAS EVACUATED IN ABOUT 25 MINUTES.
    >
    > IT IS BELIVED THAT THE SEAL ASSEMBLY AT THE WELL HEAD GAVE UP. IF THAT IS
    > THE CASE AND THEY WOULD HAVE SET THE BALANCED PLUG IN MUD THEN DISPLACED THE
    > RISER, IT WOULD ONLY HAVE DELAYED WHAT HAPPENED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
    >
    > GAS MUST HAVE CHANNELLED THROUGH THE CEMENT JOB AND UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE
    > 9-5/8 PRODUCTION CASING.
    >
    > THIS IS ALL I KNOW AT PRESENT.

  95. Tim Macknay

    Elise @46:

    A veritable feeding frenzy for one species at least?

    Careful casting aspersions on Lawyers Elise – as an oil industry type, you’re hardly as pure as the driven snow yourself! ;)

  96. Tim Macknay

    Elise @46:

    A veritable feeding frenzy for one species at least?

    Careful casting aspersions on Lawyers Elise – as an oil industry type, you’re hardly as pure as the driven snow yourself! ;)

  97. Elise

    Tim @48, we all make mistakes in our youf, don’t we? At least my specialty was wringing the last drops out of mature oilfields, so I managed to delude myself for many years that it was a worthy expenditure of effort.

    Anyway, I got religion back in 2000 and am almost pure these days!

    Around 2000 it was quite clearly evident that there was a serious problem with oil industry BAU. The data kept accumulating with every conference and seminar on mature fields worldwide, until only blind freddy could miss the trends. I finally sat down and looked at the grand picture of the growing global addiction to oil, declining oil reserves, rapidly declining oilfield find sizes, and the growing problem of CO2 emissions causing major climate change.

    Unsustainable. Heading for a sudden crunch and a hard landing.

    I’ve spent the last decade passionately arguing the case for change, wherever I got the chance. Most people still behave as if they don’t see the problem.

    Buggered if I know how to pursuade people to turn the Queen Mary in time…

  98. Elise

    Tim @48, we all make mistakes in our youf, don’t we? At least my specialty was wringing the last drops out of mature oilfields, so I managed to delude myself for many years that it was a worthy expenditure of effort.

    Anyway, I got religion back in 2000 and am almost pure these days!

    Around 2000 it was quite clearly evident that there was a serious problem with oil industry BAU. The data kept accumulating with every conference and seminar on mature fields worldwide, until only blind freddy could miss the trends. I finally sat down and looked at the grand picture of the growing global addiction to oil, declining oil reserves, rapidly declining oilfield find sizes, and the growing problem of CO2 emissions causing major climate change.

    Unsustainable. Heading for a sudden crunch and a hard landing.

    I’ve spent the last decade passionately arguing the case for change, wherever I got the chance. Most people still behave as if they don’t see the problem.

    Buggered if I know how to pursuade people to turn the Queen Mary in time…

  99. Elise

    Further to @49, there is an interesting game called Fish Banks. Here is one version of it:

    http://www.bpa.gov/Corporate/KR/ed/step/fishing_game/fishing.shtml

    A curious feature of overfishing, is that as you are ramping up your number of boats and getting the largest catches, the total stocks are declining. It is clearly unsustainable, when you look at all the data.

    However, what you mainly notice as CEO of your fishing company is your growing catch, growing fleet and growing profits…until it is too late. The change in catch size happens very suddenly, just when people are breaking open the champers.

    One might perhaps draw a long bow to the oil game? Production levels are close to an all-time high, but many major oil provinces are in decline, and reserves are falling… Meanwhile everyone is building more and more cars with internal combustion engines…

    The curves will intersect this decade.

  100. Elise

    Further to @49, there is an interesting game called Fish Banks. Here is one version of it:

    http://www.bpa.gov/Corporate/KR/ed/step/fishing_game/fishing.shtml

    A curious feature of overfishing, is that as you are ramping up your number of boats and getting the largest catches, the total stocks are declining. It is clearly unsustainable, when you look at all the data.

    However, what you mainly notice as CEO of your fishing company is your growing catch, growing fleet and growing profits…until it is too late. The change in catch size happens very suddenly, just when people are breaking open the champers.

    One might perhaps draw a long bow to the oil game? Production levels are close to an all-time high, but many major oil provinces are in decline, and reserves are falling… Meanwhile everyone is building more and more cars with internal combustion engines…

    The curves will intersect this decade.

  101. Irmelinde Ebner

    The oil disaster is crazy because the leak is so deep. I hope BP do all against the spread of the oil. The nature will be destroyed for a long time.

  102. Irmelinde Ebner

    The oil disaster is crazy because the leak is so deep. I hope BP do all against the spread of the oil. The nature will be destroyed for a long time.

  103. Brian

    I don’t have any links, but two bits of news I’ve heard.

    One of three leaks has been plugged, but I gather it was a small one.

    As we speak they are trying to move into place the inverted funnel, not an easy thing to do. It’s a 98 tonne (or ton?) steel structure four stories high, dangling on a cable a mile long.

    I heard this morning that they had to set the thing down to the side while they figured out what to do next. It seems that there are methane hydrates on the sea bed that are going to cause complications. It’s a wonder they didn’t know that beforehand.

    If it works it will capture 85% of the leaking oil, at best.

  104. Brian

    I don’t have any links, but two bits of news I’ve heard.

    One of three leaks has been plugged, but I gather it was a small one.

    As we speak they are trying to move into place the inverted funnel, not an easy thing to do. It’s a 98 tonne (or ton?) steel structure four stories high, dangling on a cable a mile long.

    I heard this morning that they had to set the thing down to the side while they figured out what to do next. It seems that there are methane hydrates on the sea bed that are going to cause complications. It’s a wonder they didn’t know that beforehand.

    If it works it will capture 85% of the leaking oil, at best.

  105. Brian

    Here’s the BBC story. I gather that as well as being flammable the ice-like crystals are causing bouyancy, according to what I heard on the radio just now.

  106. Brian

    Here’s the BBC story. I gather that as well as being flammable the ice-like crystals are causing bouyancy, according to what I heard on the radio just now.

  107. BilB

    A couple of very good perspectives

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6442
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6444

    Note that at the bottom of each article is a PDF file option that will enable you to save the whole item as a convenient PDF file.

  108. BilB

    A couple of very good perspectives

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6442
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6444

    Note that at the bottom of each article is a PDF file option that will enable you to save the whole item as a convenient PDF file.

  109. Brian

    I really should do an update post, but here are a couple of items.

    1. The Courier Mail and the Brisbane Times carried this story but the Jakarta Globe has a fuller story.

    BP’s first claim of success in almost a month of efforts risked being overshadowed by fears that huge underwater plumes of crude could be starving the waters of oxygen.

    A research vessel has located plumes reported to be up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) long, three miles (4.8 km) wide and 300 feet (92 meters) thick that suggest a far greater impact on the marine environment than previously thought.

    That’s huge. It seems to be caused by the great depth of this spill:

    “Normally, in a shallow spill, everything pretty much shoots up to the surface and the impacts are primarily to surface organisms like turtles, dolphins, whales and birds,” explained Paul Montagna.

    “What happens is we’re dealing with a different kind of situation than the past because under this really cold, high-pressure environment the oil is getting dispersed through the water column,” he said.

    The containment/mop-up effort which involves some 275 vessels has been working on the surface oil.

    2. The BBC has a Maps and graphics site. If you scroll down a bit you’ll see a graphic of the extent of the spill up to 15 May. They put the spill at 5,200 sq km.

    3. ABC RN’s Law report devoted the whole program to the oil spill and other similar spills. Transcript now up. It has some truly hair raising bits.

  110. Brian

    I really should do an update post, but here are a couple of items.

    1. The Courier Mail and the Brisbane Times carried this story but the Jakarta Globe has a fuller story.

    BP’s first claim of success in almost a month of efforts risked being overshadowed by fears that huge underwater plumes of crude could be starving the waters of oxygen.

    A research vessel has located plumes reported to be up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) long, three miles (4.8 km) wide and 300 feet (92 meters) thick that suggest a far greater impact on the marine environment than previously thought.

    That’s huge. It seems to be caused by the great depth of this spill:

    “Normally, in a shallow spill, everything pretty much shoots up to the surface and the impacts are primarily to surface organisms like turtles, dolphins, whales and birds,” explained Paul Montagna.

    “What happens is we’re dealing with a different kind of situation than the past because under this really cold, high-pressure environment the oil is getting dispersed through the water column,” he said.

    The containment/mop-up effort which involves some 275 vessels has been working on the surface oil.

    2. The BBC has a Maps and graphics site. If you scroll down a bit you’ll see a graphic of the extent of the spill up to 15 May. They put the spill at 5,200 sq km.

    3. ABC RN’s Law report devoted the whole program to the oil spill and other similar spills. Transcript now up. It has some truly hair raising bits.

  111. Elise

    Mother of all oil spills. Mother of all court cases. Mother of all compensation claims. This will have further consequences for all of us.

    BP, Transocean and Halliburton are 3 of the biggest players in the international oil industry. They will all be up to their ears in legal battles for the foreseeable period.

    Anybody else here had experience of what happens to companies when the top brass have their heads totally bent around a big battle for survival?

  112. Elise

    Mother of all oil spills. Mother of all court cases. Mother of all compensation claims. This will have further consequences for all of us.

    BP, Transocean and Halliburton are 3 of the biggest players in the international oil industry. They will all be up to their ears in legal battles for the foreseeable period.

    Anybody else here had experience of what happens to companies when the top brass have their heads totally bent around a big battle for survival?

Leave a Reply