I can’t make much of the numbers the ABC had on Lateline just then for the 2PP in Newspoll as they were Labor 46 and Coalition 51, which of course, doesn’t add up. Still, if it is the case that Labor has fallen behind in the two party preferred vote, things are about to get interesting.
[Update: Via The Poll Bludger, it's 51-49 in the Coalition's favour. And it's the first time the Coalition has been ahead on the 2PP in Newspoll since 2006.]
Note, though, that Essential Research had a smaller dip in the Labor vote (53-47 in Labor’s favour on the 2PP, or basically where the votes were in the 2007 election) with a bleed of primary votes to The Greens. That may or may not have a lot to do with the CPRS backflip.
If we make the assumption that the ALP is heading south in public opinion, and Morgan also had its tightest result since 2007, then that really raises the question of whether it’s better to take a hit on anything that might be controversial before the campaign begins, or whether backflips leave voters believing that the government is scrappy and incapable of standing up, or standing, for anything much. Your guess is as good as mine, but I don’t think it’s controversial to say that the health/economy only strategy isn’t off to a fabulous start, whatever you think of the merits or demerits of the latest political bonfire of the policies.
In any case, I don’t think any new new media narrative about the wonders of Abbott will be sustainable. It’s pretty clear that Labor’s slide is of Kevin Rudd’s own making. Whether that inoculates him against Abbott is another question entirely.
Elsewhere: Possum.
Update: Just to underline and expand on a point or two I made in comments:
(a) The way Newspoll allocates preferences is a function of the flow from the last election, not a question put to poll respondents. So these 2PP numbers would imply a direct bleed of ALP primary support to the Coalition or “Others”, not just to The Greens, because that normally doesn’t change the 2PP much, or at all.
(b) I doubt the ETS backflip per se makes all that much difference to many voters. It would be more the impression of backflips and broken promises, and I don’t think Rudd has effectively shifted the blame for sidelining the CPRS. It’s a matter of Rudd looking like “just another politician” and breaking the bond of trust he’d built up through appearing to be more in touch than Howard in 2007, through emphasising keeping promises, and through his leadership in the GFC.
I suspect that the smokers’ tax and the childcare centre backflip mean more to voters who don’t pay much attention to political news, as that stuff cuts through, and affects a lot of people in their daily lives.
(c) It’s also worth remembering, as William Bowe pointed out in comments on The Poll Bludger thread, that Newspoll and Nielsen have the most accurate methodology (phone compared to face to face or online) and also a good record in immediate pre-election polls. Having said that, I suspect this one is exaggerating the swing away from Labor, but there’s enough evidence from the other recent polls to suspect there has been one.
Update: The tables are online.
Labor’s on 35 (down 8), Liberals on 38 (up 1), Nationals on 5 (up 2), Greens on 10 (steady), Others on 12 (up 5).
A number of different ways of looking at that:
(a) Disillusioned Labor voters are parking their vote with a non-committal response (“Others”);
(b) The big drop in the Labor primary, the rise in the Nats’ primary and the stasis in The Greens’ suggests sampling error to me. But I still think the evidence of the three polls together shows drift away from the ALP.
(c) But another way of looking at this is to reflect on the previous polling volatility after Abbott got the gig, and to see it as bouncing around above the approximate line of the 2007 election result among voters who are the least attached to their partisan preferences.
On Preferred PM and in the approval ratings, Rudd’s taken the proverbial hit, but Abbott hasn’t benefited much. That tends to confirm my belief that Rudd’s brought the decline in the Labor vote on himself.
There’s also some questions on issues, with the most interesting being a significant narrowing on the question of which party can best handle climate change, most of which is accounted for by a drop in Labor’s credibility.
Update: As Mark just said on Twitter, the issue really is whether Rudd’s damaged his own credibility so much that the “clear the decks before the budget” election strategy itself suffers.
If the Greens had acted like adults Rudd would have passed the ETS by now. I wouldn’t make too much of this poll – I still think Rudd will win by a landslide – but the Greens are doing everything they can to elect an Abbott Government.
Sometimes the Greens are the best friend the Coalition ever had.
If the Greens had acted like adults Rudd would have passed the ETS by now. I wouldn’t make too much of this poll – I still think Rudd will win by a landslide – but the Greens are doing everything they can to elect an Abbott Government.
Sometimes the Greens are the best friend the Coalition ever had.
I’m frightened
I’m frightened
Poll is quoted as being 51-49 to the Liberal-National Coalition on The Australiab website.
This could be an anomaly – but knowing how closely Rudd’s office watch polls, it would not be a great time to be on his staff.
Poll is quoted as being 51-49 to the Liberal-National Coalition on The Australiab website.
This could be an anomaly – but knowing how closely Rudd’s office watch polls, it would not be a great time to be on his staff.
Yep, Ginja – they won’t mind an Abbott win because they’ll be able to whinge even louder in their impotent purity (cf Gough)
Yep, Ginja – they won’t mind an Abbott win because they’ll be able to whinge even louder in their impotent purity (cf Gough)
@3 – yep, Sam, updated the numbers with the correct ones from the Poll Bludger.
@3 – yep, Sam, updated the numbers with the correct ones from the Poll Bludger.
So this is why Malcolm is back.
As to why its happening. It seems Rudd’s backflip on the ETS has done him considerable damage. People want something to be seen to be done about climate change.
As for Abbott, he’s looking a bit like the boy who cried wolf. Not being a constructive opposition leader will hurt him.
Expect another Rudd backflip on the ETS.
So this is why Malcolm is back.
As to why its happening. It seems Rudd’s backflip on the ETS has done him considerable damage. People want something to be seen to be done about climate change.
As for Abbott, he’s looking a bit like the boy who cried wolf. Not being a constructive opposition leader will hurt him.
Expect another Rudd backflip on the ETS.
And Grog at
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2010/05/newspoll-alp-49-lnp-51-or-wow.html
And Grog at
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2010/05/newspoll-alp-49-lnp-51-or-wow.html
I think the real meat will be in the primary vote – which is not mentioned in Shanahan’s article. Has all the movement been to the Greens?
I think the real meat will be in the primary vote – which is not mentioned in Shanahan’s article. Has all the movement been to the Greens?
@8 – the way Newspoll allocates preferences is a nominal distribution according to the vote at the last election, rather than asking respondents, so usually where the ALP’s primary bleeds to The Greens, then it makes no or little difference to the 2PP. So a turnaround like this would imply a bleed to the Coalition or ‘Others’ on the primary.
@8 – the way Newspoll allocates preferences is a nominal distribution according to the vote at the last election, rather than asking respondents, so usually where the ALP’s primary bleeds to The Greens, then it makes no or little difference to the 2PP. So a turnaround like this would imply a bleed to the Coalition or ‘Others’ on the primary.
The Laberal party has a commanding 1PP 100% lead.
(I think Laberal is a more justifiable spelling than Laboral)
The Laberal party has a commanding 1PP 100% lead.
(I think Laberal is a more justifiable spelling than Laboral)
Well I’d like to say that Rudd deserves this.
But why do we deserve Tones?
Well I’d like to say that Rudd deserves this.
But why do we deserve Tones?
@6 – Paul, if it’s the case that the ALP’s primary vote has gone more to the Libs than to The Greens, as this poll would indicate, then it’s probably not the ETS directly, more the impression Rudd’s given of backflipping. Personally, I wouldn’t discount the smokers’ tax and the backdown on childcare centres as bigger factors – that’s the sort of issues that voters who don’t follow a lot of political news tend to hear about, and which tend to affect a lot of daily lives.
In general, I doubt the ETS per se is of any great importance to the great majority of the electorate.
@6 – Paul, if it’s the case that the ALP’s primary vote has gone more to the Libs than to The Greens, as this poll would indicate, then it’s probably not the ETS directly, more the impression Rudd’s given of backflipping. Personally, I wouldn’t discount the smokers’ tax and the backdown on childcare centres as bigger factors – that’s the sort of issues that voters who don’t follow a lot of political news tend to hear about, and which tend to affect a lot of daily lives.
In general, I doubt the ETS per se is of any great importance to the great majority of the electorate.
Hasn’t Newspoll been quite a bit out before? I wouldn’t believe this is real until there’s been a few more polls like it. Even with the ETS backflip why would that push voters to the liberal party anyway?
Hasn’t Newspoll been quite a bit out before? I wouldn’t believe this is real until there’s been a few more polls like it. Even with the ETS backflip why would that push voters to the liberal party anyway?
Okay, Kim. I’ll buy the backdown on childcare centres, though if that blew up in Rudd’s face it was his own fault. Didn’t they stop it because they weren’t needed? If that was true, Labor should’ve put a bit more time into selling the policy change, but, as usual, they didn’t.
Don’t know about cigarettes, though. Its only an extra $2 or so. $5, that would’ve hurt, but $2, nope.
Okay, Kim. I’ll buy the backdown on childcare centres, though if that blew up in Rudd’s face it was his own fault. Didn’t they stop it because they weren’t needed? If that was true, Labor should’ve put a bit more time into selling the policy change, but, as usual, they didn’t.
Don’t know about cigarettes, though. Its only an extra $2 or so. $5, that would’ve hurt, but $2, nope.
@14 – Paul, childcare fees are still too high and there’s not enough supply.
On cigs, a pack of 25s might have gone up from $12.50 to $15 at Coles and to $17.50 in a servo or 7-11. And a pouch of tobacco is now over thirty bucks at the cheapest for 50 grams. I don’t smoke but was asking around today.
More smokers are people on low incomes and benefits, with less discretionary spending power. That’s why it’s a regressive tax, in effect. And I doubt KRudd is completely trusted at the moment with the claim that all of the money will go to hospitals, given what he’s been doing to his own credibility lately.
@14 – Paul, childcare fees are still too high and there’s not enough supply.
On cigs, a pack of 25s might have gone up from $12.50 to $15 at Coles and to $17.50 in a servo or 7-11. And a pouch of tobacco is now over thirty bucks at the cheapest for 50 grams. I don’t smoke but was asking around today.
More smokers are people on low incomes and benefits, with less discretionary spending power. That’s why it’s a regressive tax, in effect. And I doubt KRudd is completely trusted at the moment with the claim that all of the money will go to hospitals, given what he’s been doing to his own credibility lately.
Update: Just to underline and expand on a point or two I made in comments:
(a) The way Newspoll allocates preferences is a function of the flow from the last election, not a question put to poll respondents. So these 2PP numbers would imply a direct bleed of ALP primary support to the Coalition or “Others”, not just to The Greens, because that normally doesn’t change the 2PP much, or at all.
(b) I doubt the ETS backflip per se makes all that much difference to many voters. It would be more the impression of backflips and broken promises, and I don’t think Rudd has effectively shifted the blame for sidelining the CPRS. It’s a matter of Rudd looking like “just another politician” and breaking the bond of trust he’d built up through appearing to be more in touch than Howard in 2007, through emphasising keeping promises, and through his leadership in the GFC.
I suspect that the smokers’ tax and the childcare centre backflip mean more to voters who don’t pay much attention to political news, as that stuff cuts through, and affects a lot of people in their daily lives.
(c) It’s also worth remembering, as William Bowe pointed out in comments on The Poll Bludger thread, that Newspoll and Nielsen have the most accurate methodology (phone compared to face to face or online) and also a good record in immediate pre-election polls. Having said that, I suspect this one is exaggerating the swing away from Labor, but there’s enough evidence from the other recent polls to suspect there has been one.
Update: Just to underline and expand on a point or two I made in comments:
(a) The way Newspoll allocates preferences is a function of the flow from the last election, not a question put to poll respondents. So these 2PP numbers would imply a direct bleed of ALP primary support to the Coalition or “Others”, not just to The Greens, because that normally doesn’t change the 2PP much, or at all.
(b) I doubt the ETS backflip per se makes all that much difference to many voters. It would be more the impression of backflips and broken promises, and I don’t think Rudd has effectively shifted the blame for sidelining the CPRS. It’s a matter of Rudd looking like “just another politician” and breaking the bond of trust he’d built up through appearing to be more in touch than Howard in 2007, through emphasising keeping promises, and through his leadership in the GFC.
I suspect that the smokers’ tax and the childcare centre backflip mean more to voters who don’t pay much attention to political news, as that stuff cuts through, and affects a lot of people in their daily lives.
(c) It’s also worth remembering, as William Bowe pointed out in comments on The Poll Bludger thread, that Newspoll and Nielsen have the most accurate methodology (phone compared to face to face or online) and also a good record in immediate pre-election polls. Having said that, I suspect this one is exaggerating the swing away from Labor, but there’s enough evidence from the other recent polls to suspect there has been one.
Update: The tables are online.
Labor’s on 35 (down 8), Liberals on 38 (up 1), Nationals on 5 (up 2), Greens on 10 (steady), Others on 12 (up 5).
A number of different ways of looking at that:
(a) Disillusioned Labor voters are parking their vote with a non-committal response (“Others”);
(b) The big drop in the Labor primary, the rise in the Nats’ primary and the stasis in The Greens’ suggests sampling error to me. But I still think the evidence of the three polls together shows drift away from the ALP. But another way of looking at this is to reflect on the previous volatility after Abbott got the gig, and to see it as bouncing around above the approximate line of the 2007 election result among voters who are the least attached to their partisan preferences.
Rudd’s taken the proverbial hit, but Abbott hasn’t benefited much.
There’s also some questions on issues.
Update: The tables are online.
Labor’s on 35 (down 8), Liberals on 38 (up 1), Nationals on 5 (up 2), Greens on 10 (steady), Others on 12 (up 5).
A number of different ways of looking at that:
(a) Disillusioned Labor voters are parking their vote with a non-committal response (“Others”);
(b) The big drop in the Labor primary, the rise in the Nats’ primary and the stasis in The Greens’ suggests sampling error to me. But I still think the evidence of the three polls together shows drift away from the ALP. But another way of looking at this is to reflect on the previous volatility after Abbott got the gig, and to see it as bouncing around above the approximate line of the 2007 election result among voters who are the least attached to their partisan preferences.
Rudd’s taken the proverbial hit, but Abbott hasn’t benefited much.
There’s also some questions on issues.
Kim,
this is the Herald spin on the Essential Research poll on the ETS.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudds-ets-delay-upsets-voters-poll-20100503-u3fu.html
It looks like its doing Rudd real damage. (I wouldn’t have thought it would’ve hurt him that much because it meant, temporarily, electricity prices weren’t going to go up so mich, but I guess I was wrong.)
Of course, it might all mean people have decideed he’s a bit of a gutless wimp. If the poll is not an outlier, that would explain everything.
Suddenly, like firstdogonthemoon, I’m frightened.
Kim,
this is the Herald spin on the Essential Research poll on the ETS.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudds-ets-delay-upsets-voters-poll-20100503-u3fu.html
It looks like its doing Rudd real damage. (I wouldn’t have thought it would’ve hurt him that much because it meant, temporarily, electricity prices weren’t going to go up so mich, but I guess I was wrong.)
Of course, it might all mean people have decideed he’s a bit of a gutless wimp. If the poll is not an outlier, that would explain everything.
Suddenly, like firstdogonthemoon, I’m frightened.
Ginga, the Greens opinions on the ETS didn’t matter one iota. For the government to pass the ETS without Liberal support would have required Labor + The Greens + Xenophon + Fielding. There is no way in hell Fielding would ever have voted for it.
Labor needed Liberal support for this.
Ginga, the Greens opinions on the ETS didn’t matter one iota. For the government to pass the ETS without Liberal support would have required Labor + The Greens + Xenophon + Fielding. There is no way in hell Fielding would ever have voted for it.
Labor needed Liberal support for this.
@18 – Paul, I think that the primaries suggest sampling error, as I said in my last update. However, putting the three polls together, there’s no question Rudd and Labor have gone backwards some. The PPM and approval ratings questions in both Newspoll and Essential suggest it’s damage Rudd has done to himself and Labor, not any great traction gained by Abbott and the Coalition.
Make of that what you will.
But there’ll be a lot of nervous Labor MPs questioning their leader’s judgement right about now. And perhaps they’re right to do so.
@18 – Paul, I think that the primaries suggest sampling error, as I said in my last update. However, putting the three polls together, there’s no question Rudd and Labor have gone backwards some. The PPM and approval ratings questions in both Newspoll and Essential suggest it’s damage Rudd has done to himself and Labor, not any great traction gained by Abbott and the Coalition.
Make of that what you will.
But there’ll be a lot of nervous Labor MPs questioning their leader’s judgement right about now. And perhaps they’re right to do so.
I’d love to believe that the bad poll result is due to the government refusing to back down on the internet filter which is very easily fixed. But thats probably hoping for too much
I’d love to believe that the bad poll result is due to the government refusing to back down on the internet filter which is very easily fixed. But thats probably hoping for too much
Update: As Mark just said on Twitter, the issue really is whether Rudd’s damaged his own credibility so much that the “clear the decks before the budget” election strategy itself suffers.
Update: As Mark just said on Twitter, the issue really is whether Rudd’s damaged his own credibility so much that the “clear the decks before the budget” election strategy itself suffers.
Mark said
‘The irony is that some of those Ministers who are most attuned to the demands of the second decade of the new century are now at risk from Rudd’s obsession with a risk-free politics. Labor should have another term, but some time in that term, and the sooner the better, Kevin Rudd should go.’
Not sure about the first ‘should’ & ‘another’ Mark. But warming to ‘better’.
Now Kim says
‘It’s pretty clear that Labor’s slide is of Kevin Rudd’s own making’
Correct.
Reading Possum’s apologia {spin?} for the ‘greatest moral blah blah of our time’ being blah blahed I was reminded of his great pre Beecher H Singh pooh bah that invented, manufactured or is it resurrected wRONg: ‘Harbhajan Singh was found guilty’ lol, the old daze.
2 Jans back Kim I called the dear if not fearless leader ‘the blonde rodent’…I think we just need to get used to it…
Oh and what Tim Dunlop et al said.
Will Mr Abbott make a meal of this, probably; will Mr Rudd make a…’out the back door stop…’ highly likely.
Mark said
‘The irony is that some of those Ministers who are most attuned to the demands of the second decade of the new century are now at risk from Rudd’s obsession with a risk-free politics. Labor should have another term, but some time in that term, and the sooner the better, Kevin Rudd should go.’
Not sure about the first ‘should’ & ‘another’ Mark. But warming to ‘better’.
Now Kim says
‘It’s pretty clear that Labor’s slide is of Kevin Rudd’s own making’
Correct.
Reading Possum’s apologia {spin?} for the ‘greatest moral blah blah of our time’ being blah blahed I was reminded of his great pre Beecher H Singh pooh bah that invented, manufactured or is it resurrected wRONg: ‘Harbhajan Singh was found guilty’ lol, the old daze.
2 Jans back Kim I called the dear if not fearless leader ‘the blonde rodent’…I think we just need to get used to it…
Oh and what Tim Dunlop et al said.
Will Mr Abbott make a meal of this, probably; will Mr Rudd make a…’out the back door stop…’ highly likely.
“Others on 12 (up 5)”
Others are not the Greens. This dip is not about Climate change, Ginja.
“Others on 12 (up 5)”
Others are not the Greens. This dip is not about Climate change, Ginja.
Abo (as his mates enchantingly call him) is in front?
For defnit?
Shoot me now.
But before you do, can I just link to something Stephen Romei at the Australian Literary Review blog A Pair of Ragged Claws has pointed out that had not previously occurred to me despite my longtime dislike of ‘backflip’ as a meeja fave to mean ‘I’ve given it some thought and on mature reflection I’ve changed my mind’: that when you do a backflip, you end up facing the same way you were facing in the first place.
Abo (as his mates enchantingly call him) is in front?
For defnit?
Shoot me now.
But before you do, can I just link to something Stephen Romei at the Australian Literary Review blog A Pair of Ragged Claws has pointed out that had not previously occurred to me despite my longtime dislike of ‘backflip’ as a meeja fave to mean ‘I’ve given it some thought and on mature reflection I’ve changed my mind’: that when you do a backflip, you end up facing the same way you were facing in the first place.
@25 – Dr Cat, Abbott’s only in front because KRudd has propelled him there.
Clearing the decks should start with the Captain, but I guess we’ve got Kevin til after the election.
The current crop of Labor ‘strategists’, though, should be thrown overboard forthwith.
@25 – Dr Cat, Abbott’s only in front because KRudd has propelled him there.
Clearing the decks should start with the Captain, but I guess we’ve got Kevin til after the election.
The current crop of Labor ‘strategists’, though, should be thrown overboard forthwith.
Too true. Let us cast our minds back, to, oh, say, Christmas. Who would ever have thought it possible?
Too true. Let us cast our minds back, to, oh, say, Christmas. Who would ever have thought it possible?
Exactly!!!
Exactly!!!
Ok, so Essential Research used a sample of 1772 voters, while Newspoll used 1161. Aggregating those results gives a poll result of 51.4% for Labor, with a 95% confidence interval margin of error of 1.8% (a standard error of 0.9%).
There are of course other potential sources of error, such as selection bias, assumptions about preference flow, and rounding error from the results that I aggregated. If you ignore these sources of error, you get a >75% chance of the actual value of the 2PP being greater than or equal to 50% for Labor.
I don’t know whats so special about Newspoll, apart from News Ltd writing about it. I suspect the small sample size makes it easier for them to write headlines.
Ok, so Essential Research used a sample of 1772 voters, while Newspoll used 1161. Aggregating those results gives a poll result of 51.4% for Labor, with a 95% confidence interval margin of error of 1.8% (a standard error of 0.9%).
There are of course other potential sources of error, such as selection bias, assumptions about preference flow, and rounding error from the results that I aggregated. If you ignore these sources of error, you get a >75% chance of the actual value of the 2PP being greater than or equal to 50% for Labor.
I don’t know whats so special about Newspoll, apart from News Ltd writing about it. I suspect the small sample size makes it easier for them to write headlines.
Peter, if you read the Poll Bludger, you would know that Essential’s larger sample size comes from the fact that it aggregates polling over two weeks. When there is a near-term shift their poll will understate the movement. In addition, and again from Poll Bludger, it seems likely that Essential contains a “house bias” to the ALP.
That said, on this particular occasion, the big shift in the primaries from Labor to Others is a bit suspicious (rather than the Libs or the Greens) so it seems likely that Newspoll overstates the shift away from Labor on this occassion. The best way to interpret this and other recent polls is that there has been a shift in momentum away from the ALP and increased dissatisfaction with Rudd’s leadership. At this stage it is unlikely that the shift will be large enough to threaten an ALP win, but the hope of a win with a much increased majority now seems much less likely than it did just a few months ago.
Peter, if you read the Poll Bludger, you would know that Essential’s larger sample size comes from the fact that it aggregates polling over two weeks. When there is a near-term shift their poll will understate the movement. In addition, and again from Poll Bludger, it seems likely that Essential contains a “house bias” to the ALP.
That said, on this particular occasion, the big shift in the primaries from Labor to Others is a bit suspicious (rather than the Libs or the Greens) so it seems likely that Newspoll overstates the shift away from Labor on this occassion. The best way to interpret this and other recent polls is that there has been a shift in momentum away from the ALP and increased dissatisfaction with Rudd’s leadership. At this stage it is unlikely that the shift will be large enough to threaten an ALP win, but the hope of a win with a much increased majority now seems much less likely than it did just a few months ago.
Well, whatever its about (ive been out of the country) – Kim’s right that its certainly not a positive reflection on Abbott’s performance: the same newspoll show a major slump in his approval ratings from net +6 to net +2.
It appears very clearly to be a combo of Rudd really pissing people off – probably with various backflips – and a statistical glitch.
Well, whatever its about (ive been out of the country) – Kim’s right that its certainly not a positive reflection on Abbott’s performance: the same newspoll show a major slump in his approval ratings from net +6 to net +2.
It appears very clearly to be a combo of Rudd really pissing people off – probably with various backflips – and a statistical glitch.
Remember, prior to the election in ’07, when the pundits refused to believe the bad news [ALP ahead] that Newspoll was reporting and they came up with all sorts of ‘reasons’ why the polls just could not be right?
Let’s not fall for the same trap.
Remember, prior to the election in ’07, when the pundits refused to believe the bad news [ALP ahead] that Newspoll was reporting and they came up with all sorts of ‘reasons’ why the polls just could not be right?
Let’s not fall for the same trap.
Absolutely Hannah’s Dad. Rudd wants to watch himself. I think its a case of losing his ‘I actually do what I say’ gloss – which was keeping him sky high – rather than any implementation-style problems, with the insulation scheme etc.
I’d say its also confusing for the electorate to find Rudd backing down to someone they cant bloody stand, and wouldnt elect even if their house WAS on fire – viz Abbott. I cant for the life of me work out why anyone at ALP HQ thought Abbott = Howard – i.e. someone to play the ‘neutralise through strategic ageement’ game with.
The public find Abbott essentially unelectable. Why fold to his pressure? On any issue?
Absolutely Hannah’s Dad. Rudd wants to watch himself. I think its a case of losing his ‘I actually do what I say’ gloss – which was keeping him sky high – rather than any implementation-style problems, with the insulation scheme etc.
I’d say its also confusing for the electorate to find Rudd backing down to someone they cant bloody stand, and wouldnt elect even if their house WAS on fire – viz Abbott. I cant for the life of me work out why anyone at ALP HQ thought Abbott = Howard – i.e. someone to play the ‘neutralise through strategic ageement’ game with.
The public find Abbott essentially unelectable. Why fold to his pressure? On any issue?
This is just another Shanahan fantasy and you really, really shouldn’t buy into it.
“According to the latest Newspoll, taken last weekend exclusively for The Australian“.
This is just another Shanahan fantasy and you really, really shouldn’t buy into it.
“According to the latest Newspoll, taken last weekend exclusively for The Australian“.
No we should take this seriously. Otherwise why wouldn’t Rudd be pulling the DD trigger?
Here’s how ABbott can win. Promise to reverse the tax on cigarettes or even lower it. He’d have the election in the bag.
No we should take this seriously. Otherwise why wouldn’t Rudd be pulling the DD trigger?
Here’s how ABbott can win. Promise to reverse the tax on cigarettes or even lower it. He’d have the election in the bag.
This poll should inform the Canberra crowd that:
a) Australians want climate change action (are you listening, Labor?)
b) There’s no votes to be gained in climate denialism (are you listening, Liberals?)
Now a drop in ALP support is entirely expected, but this poll makes no sense in terms of the magnitude and direction of votes changing.
Look – an eight point drop (43-35) in primary support for the ALP from one fortnight to the next? C’mon, what’d he do, eat a baby in front of live news cameras?
“Others” have 12% of the vote? I call B.S. Who is nearly 1-in-8 Australians voting for, besides ALP, Liberals, Nationals and Greens?
OMG…it’s Graeme Bird and the LDP, isn’t it?
*pulls doona back over head*
This poll should inform the Canberra crowd that:
a) Australians want climate change action (are you listening, Labor?)
b) There’s no votes to be gained in climate denialism (are you listening, Liberals?)
Now a drop in ALP support is entirely expected, but this poll makes no sense in terms of the magnitude and direction of votes changing.
Look – an eight point drop (43-35) in primary support for the ALP from one fortnight to the next? C’mon, what’d he do, eat a baby in front of live news cameras?
“Others” have 12% of the vote? I call B.S. Who is nearly 1-in-8 Australians voting for, besides ALP, Liberals, Nationals and Greens?
OMG…it’s Graeme Bird and the LDP, isn’t it?
*pulls doona back over head*
How many smokers were affected by the price rise last week? That’s why the poll results.
How many smokers were affected by the price rise last week? That’s why the poll results.
What about this theory…
…all we’ve seen of Rudd the last fortnight is him locked up with State Premiers tinkering with health, and him locked up with the treasure noodling about with the tax system. I know it’s how Rudd gets his kicks, but somebody needs to tell him that technocratic managerialism isn’t half as sexy as it sounds
…and yet, there’s little gain for the Coalition. The kind of big state head-cracking hymen-guarding interventionism of Tony Abbott only appeals to an electorally doomed minority.
After more than a decade of beige ‘relaxed and comfortable’ drifting, I think voters are bored and want to see a politician advocating some vision for the country.
C’mon Malcolm…what’cha got?
What about this theory…
…all we’ve seen of Rudd the last fortnight is him locked up with State Premiers tinkering with health, and him locked up with the treasure noodling about with the tax system. I know it’s how Rudd gets his kicks, but somebody needs to tell him that technocratic managerialism isn’t half as sexy as it sounds
…and yet, there’s little gain for the Coalition. The kind of big state head-cracking hymen-guarding interventionism of Tony Abbott only appeals to an electorally doomed minority.
After more than a decade of beige ‘relaxed and comfortable’ drifting, I think voters are bored and want to see a politician advocating some vision for the country.
C’mon Malcolm…what’cha got?
@tssk, what benefits do you see to Labor in calling a DD? In terms of actual seats in both Houses of Parliament?
Antony Green crunched the figures last July, and his numbers show that a DD would put Labor in a much worse position in the Upper House than a normal half-Senate election.
Do you think something’s changed?
@tssk, what benefits do you see to Labor in calling a DD? In terms of actual seats in both Houses of Parliament?
Antony Green crunched the figures last July, and his numbers show that a DD would put Labor in a much worse position in the Upper House than a normal half-Senate election.
Do you think something’s changed?
Well, he does do a good line in the devious but the vision is blurred by the fog of his own ego.
Well, he does do a good line in the devious but the vision is blurred by the fog of his own ego.
To me, the Mark Bahnisch observation in a concurrent thread that Bligh and Fraser were deliberately offshore to avoid Labor Day, gets exponentially closer than the “Ewige” Greens nonsense proliferated by ALP right faction hacks earlier in the thread.
This sort of un-leadership extends right across Labor, it is the NSW right approach now almost universal thru the party, it’s as denialist,obstinate and valorising of ignorance as the Hansonist push on the other side. The emancipatory Light on the Hill looks to be barely flickering at the moment.
As to Tony Abbott becoming PM, all this bloke can say is, “a people gets the government it deserves”.
To me, the Mark Bahnisch observation in a concurrent thread that Bligh and Fraser were deliberately offshore to avoid Labor Day, gets exponentially closer than the “Ewige” Greens nonsense proliferated by ALP right faction hacks earlier in the thread.
This sort of un-leadership extends right across Labor, it is the NSW right approach now almost universal thru the party, it’s as denialist,obstinate and valorising of ignorance as the Hansonist push on the other side. The emancipatory Light on the Hill looks to be barely flickering at the moment.
As to Tony Abbott becoming PM, all this bloke can say is, “a people gets the government it deserves”.
@39 – tigtog, that’s right about a DD, but the point here, I think, is that Rudd claims on one hand that certain legislation is absolutely essential to Australia’s future (and the world’s) and then gives up on the chance to pass it by having a DD.
That’s if he does do that. Everyone is assuming he’s rushing to a July or August poll. But there’s still the option of a DD. Though not with the ETS bills, presumably, if you read the fine print (“we’ll review the position on the ETS in 2012″).
@39 – tigtog, that’s right about a DD, but the point here, I think, is that Rudd claims on one hand that certain legislation is absolutely essential to Australia’s future (and the world’s) and then gives up on the chance to pass it by having a DD.
That’s if he does do that. Everyone is assuming he’s rushing to a July or August poll. But there’s still the option of a DD. Though not with the ETS bills, presumably, if you read the fine print (“we’ll review the position on the ETS in 2012″).
Hasn’t 2 and a half years of Rudderless Labor demonstrated the futility of the two party system? I promise by 2020 no carbon atom will be homeless….
Hasn’t 2 and a half years of Rudderless Labor demonstrated the futility of the two party system? I promise by 2020 no carbon atom will be homeless….
You know, Rudd was doing just fine saying ‘we need an ETS, great moral challenge, thwarted by senate bler bler bler’ – and then he needleslly backed down, to a rolled gold LOSER called Abbott, that no one would elect in a blue fit.
The Ausatrlian people are clearly punishing Rudd for agreeing with that MORON Abbott on any issue. The stench of unelectability has rubbed off, and will continue to while Rudd treats that demneted, God-bothering tard as some sort of serious player to be concerned about. The Austrlaian cant beleive their eyes, an now demand a credible third alternative called ‘other’.
There’s no explanation for these results in which everyone gets dumped on. Except maybe a BS rogue poll.
The ALP are geting thwacked – becuase theyre spineless gimps!
You know, Rudd was doing just fine saying ‘we need an ETS, great moral challenge, thwarted by senate bler bler bler’ – and then he needleslly backed down, to a rolled gold LOSER called Abbott, that no one would elect in a blue fit.
The Ausatrlian people are clearly punishing Rudd for agreeing with that MORON Abbott on any issue. The stench of unelectability has rubbed off, and will continue to while Rudd treats that demneted, God-bothering tard as some sort of serious player to be concerned about. The Austrlaian cant beleive their eyes, an now demand a credible third alternative called ‘other’.
There’s no explanation for these results in which everyone gets dumped on. Except maybe a BS rogue poll.
The ALP are geting thwacked – becuase theyre spineless gimps!
@Lefty E – yep.
As Mark said on a recent post, Paul Keating is right – this is what you get when spineless machine men are running the government’s agenda. So now we have Rudd panicking when he’s ahead. Great.
@Lefty E – yep.
As Mark said on a recent post, Paul Keating is right – this is what you get when spineless machine men are running the government’s agenda. So now we have Rudd panicking when he’s ahead. Great.
WorkChoices.
A flat tax?
End of universal health insurance?
WorkChoices.
A flat tax?
End of universal health insurance?
The rolled gold loser, Abbott, is one factor.
But you forget:
24/7 shock jocks whipping up national audiences with chants of “Great Big New Tax!” … “Great Big Ne Tax!”
The Copenhagen anti-climax.
Lavish media attention (particularly on the ‘credible’ ABC) given to climate change sceptics.
A general cooling (evidenced by some polling) of attitudes to global warming.
The rolled gold loser, Abbott, is one factor.
But you forget:
24/7 shock jocks whipping up national audiences with chants of “Great Big New Tax!” … “Great Big Ne Tax!”
The Copenhagen anti-climax.
Lavish media attention (particularly on the ‘credible’ ABC) given to climate change sceptics.
A general cooling (evidenced by some polling) of attitudes to global warming.
The current choice facing voters in Australia is to be led by Rudd or Abbot. That’s like having to decide whether to be hung or shot.
I think it’s time to immigrate to another country. Even another universe seems appealing.
The current choice facing voters in Australia is to be led by Rudd or Abbot. That’s like having to decide whether to be hung or shot.
I think it’s time to immigrate to another country. Even another universe seems appealing.
David G,
What, like Greece?
I’ve had all night to worry about all this. ABC2 didn’t help my paranoia (I do hope that’s what it is) by observing that Abbott was in ‘an election-winning position.’ On can only hope this is an outlier. I agree that Rudd should have faced Abbott down and exposed him for the screaming banshee that he is, but, as the Brits say, he hasn;t got the bottom. That is what lies at the root of all this. Australians don’t like having a PM who doesn’t have political courage. Getting lost in wonkery, as others have observed, could lose him this election. The only thing that re-assures me is that historically, we always like to give governments a second go, except in the extraordinary circumstances of the Great Depression. But it doesn’t reassure me enough.
David G,
What, like Greece?
I’ve had all night to worry about all this. ABC2 didn’t help my paranoia (I do hope that’s what it is) by observing that Abbott was in ‘an election-winning position.’ On can only hope this is an outlier. I agree that Rudd should have faced Abbott down and exposed him for the screaming banshee that he is, but, as the Brits say, he hasn;t got the bottom. That is what lies at the root of all this. Australians don’t like having a PM who doesn’t have political courage. Getting lost in wonkery, as others have observed, could lose him this election. The only thing that re-assures me is that historically, we always like to give governments a second go, except in the extraordinary circumstances of the Great Depression. But it doesn’t reassure me enough.
I think this is a knee-jerk response that will soon die back. You’ll see the poll numbers even out and get back Labor’s way over the next six weeks. That’s my call.
What this shows is the scorn being deservedly heaped on this government. Masterly inactivity interspersed with bouts of frenzied, counter-productive activity do not make for effective government.
Their pathetic response to the Henry tax review sums up what this government stands for – themselves. They are interested only in power and getting elected. They have no interest in being a government, only in being in government.
I think people have picked up on this, hence the swing away from the government. Once people’s anger passes and they realise what they have swung too, they will swing back. After all, as bad as this government is, Abbott is worse.
If Abbott had an intelligent response to the Henry report to tout he would gain traction as a plausible alternative that would build as Rudd’s did in 2007. However there is no danger of that.
I think this is a knee-jerk response that will soon die back. You’ll see the poll numbers even out and get back Labor’s way over the next six weeks. That’s my call.
What this shows is the scorn being deservedly heaped on this government. Masterly inactivity interspersed with bouts of frenzied, counter-productive activity do not make for effective government.
Their pathetic response to the Henry tax review sums up what this government stands for – themselves. They are interested only in power and getting elected. They have no interest in being a government, only in being in government.
I think people have picked up on this, hence the swing away from the government. Once people’s anger passes and they realise what they have swung too, they will swing back. After all, as bad as this government is, Abbott is worse.
If Abbott had an intelligent response to the Henry report to tout he would gain traction as a plausible alternative that would build as Rudd’s did in 2007. However there is no danger of that.
Paul, it’s a comment on the poor quality of Australian democracy when two paltry, putrid poltroons like Rudd and Abbot become leaders.
Perhaps a drover’s dog might yet be a better option!
Paul, it’s a comment on the poor quality of Australian democracy when two paltry, putrid poltroons like Rudd and Abbot become leaders.
Perhaps a drover’s dog might yet be a better option!
Stephen Long got it right the other day – Rudd is being run by ‘The Hollow Men’, the same people who advised Bob Carr, the do-nothing, poll-driven, risk-averse NSW Labor premier.
In fact, that’s how Rudd now appears to most people – as a state Labor premier, a mealy-mouthed, ambulance-chasing droid spending most of his energy about keeping the local Murdoch tabloids on side. And that’s no surprise given his office is crowded with former Daily Telegraph journos.
The great mystery is this: If you are a progressive voter deeply disillusioned with the Rudd government, why on god’s earth would you consider as a serious alternative the loathsome Abbott and his gang of xenophobes, flat-earthers, god-botherers and ghosts of the Howard era??
Perhaps progressive urban professionals are dallying with illusions of Turnbull booting Abbott and dragging the party back to a progressive, climate change actioning, republican centre. But if Abbott steals this election, against all the odds, you would have to think that the far right will have the keys to the Lodge well secured.
In the final analysis, I think Rudd has been seen to be too clever by half – just another politician. By clearing the decks – and in such a cynical way with half the country talking about Melbourne Storm – he looks as shifty and as tricky as Howard ever did.
Stephen Long got it right the other day – Rudd is being run by ‘The Hollow Men’, the same people who advised Bob Carr, the do-nothing, poll-driven, risk-averse NSW Labor premier.
In fact, that’s how Rudd now appears to most people – as a state Labor premier, a mealy-mouthed, ambulance-chasing droid spending most of his energy about keeping the local Murdoch tabloids on side. And that’s no surprise given his office is crowded with former Daily Telegraph journos.
The great mystery is this: If you are a progressive voter deeply disillusioned with the Rudd government, why on god’s earth would you consider as a serious alternative the loathsome Abbott and his gang of xenophobes, flat-earthers, god-botherers and ghosts of the Howard era??
Perhaps progressive urban professionals are dallying with illusions of Turnbull booting Abbott and dragging the party back to a progressive, climate change actioning, republican centre. But if Abbott steals this election, against all the odds, you would have to think that the far right will have the keys to the Lodge well secured.
In the final analysis, I think Rudd has been seen to be too clever by half – just another politician. By clearing the decks – and in such a cynical way with half the country talking about Melbourne Storm – he looks as shifty and as tricky as Howard ever did.
If that’s the plan, it has clearly failed.
The numbers deserting Rudd haven’t gone to Abott. They are clearly parked in ‘other’, or as BK described it at PB
If the shift is about the ETS, the Greens should be worried, because they didn’t gain anything in the shift.
If that’s the plan, it has clearly failed.
The numbers deserting Rudd haven’t gone to Abott. They are clearly parked in ‘other’, or as BK described it at PB
If the shift is about the ETS, the Greens should be worried, because they didn’t gain anything in the shift.
Yes, well they didn’t vote for the ETS when this historical opportunity arose. Maybe all the punters are saving their votes for Malcolm Turnbull.
Yes, well they didn’t vote for the ETS when this historical opportunity arose. Maybe all the punters are saving their votes for Malcolm Turnbull.
This poll shows what we have all been feeling for sometime Rudd is just a gutless wimp run by the Sussex Street mob who have never seen a poll they aren’t frightened of. Australians never warmed to Howard but they did know he stood for something. All Rudd stands for is backsliding and dogging the hard options. We don’t like people like that. Time for him to go or this mob is going to slide into oblivion and take some good people with them. We worked hard to get Howard out and to be sentenced to life under Abbott because Rudd is just a flim flam man will be pretty hard to stomach. He should have fought for a CPRS that made sense not the crap he served up after bending over for every special interest group in the country. People know he will bend over for the miners on super tax in fact I expect a policy reversal before the end of the week. this guy will sell us out at every turn. The pressure groups who have this country by the balls know an easy mark when they see one and will just double them pressure they know Kev will powder. He could have made a bigger stand on the insulation pointing out as the report did that most were satisfied with the job (I was) and pointing out that the dead people were dead as a result of dodgy often licensed operators who failed to observe even basic duty of care. But no throw Garrett over board just save Kev The Japanese hear his threat about international court and whaling and must be laughing into their sake. Yesterday the bloke investigating the schools building program says he has 150 complaints out of more than 12,000 jobs. Most of these will be because the state govts stuffed up He should have led from the start on asylum seekers instead of sitting like a bunny in the spotlight. Should have owned up to the fact that boats will arrive the numbers are small and we will treat people humanely instead of now opening up the Curtin hell hole so he can pretend to be so butch by treating powerless people like shit. Kev it’s called leading not listening to the putrid Sussex Street spin doctors. I thought he was just the federal answer to Bob Carr Mr do nothing for 10 years but I think he maybe worse.
Fair dinkum I am so angry about this bloke. I hate Abbott with a passion and we seem as though we are going to end up with him because of Kevin’s lack of ticker.
This poll shows what we have all been feeling for sometime Rudd is just a gutless wimp run by the Sussex Street mob who have never seen a poll they aren’t frightened of. Australians never warmed to Howard but they did know he stood for something. All Rudd stands for is backsliding and dogging the hard options. We don’t like people like that. Time for him to go or this mob is going to slide into oblivion and take some good people with them. We worked hard to get Howard out and to be sentenced to life under Abbott because Rudd is just a flim flam man will be pretty hard to stomach. He should have fought for a CPRS that made sense not the crap he served up after bending over for every special interest group in the country. People know he will bend over for the miners on super tax in fact I expect a policy reversal before the end of the week. this guy will sell us out at every turn. The pressure groups who have this country by the balls know an easy mark when they see one and will just double them pressure they know Kev will powder. He could have made a bigger stand on the insulation pointing out as the report did that most were satisfied with the job (I was) and pointing out that the dead people were dead as a result of dodgy often licensed operators who failed to observe even basic duty of care. But no throw Garrett over board just save Kev The Japanese hear his threat about international court and whaling and must be laughing into their sake. Yesterday the bloke investigating the schools building program says he has 150 complaints out of more than 12,000 jobs. Most of these will be because the state govts stuffed up He should have led from the start on asylum seekers instead of sitting like a bunny in the spotlight. Should have owned up to the fact that boats will arrive the numbers are small and we will treat people humanely instead of now opening up the Curtin hell hole so he can pretend to be so butch by treating powerless people like shit. Kev it’s called leading not listening to the putrid Sussex Street spin doctors. I thought he was just the federal answer to Bob Carr Mr do nothing for 10 years but I think he maybe worse.
Fair dinkum I am so angry about this bloke. I hate Abbott with a passion and we seem as though we are going to end up with him because of Kevin’s lack of ticker.
Megan, at least with Abbot, what you see is what you get: budgie-smugglers, backflips, massive contradictions and all.
With Turnbull, you get a re-run of silver-spoon Frazer except that Frazer had some political nous and he also understood the meaning of the word ‘loyalty’.
Megan, at least with Abbot, what you see is what you get: budgie-smugglers, backflips, massive contradictions and all.
With Turnbull, you get a re-run of silver-spoon Frazer except that Frazer had some political nous and he also understood the meaning of the word ‘loyalty’.
Much as I’d like to believe this is about Labor’s inaction on climate change, I doubt if it is (despite Barnaby Joist’s spray this morning). If it were, Labor’s lost votes would have gone to the Greens.
Much as I’d like to believe this is about Labor’s inaction on climate change, I doubt if it is (despite Barnaby Joist’s spray this morning). If it were, Labor’s lost votes would have gone to the Greens.
David no relation: CPRS is just another nail in the coffin of wimpish cowardice and inaction. Even of you don’t like someone you have to admire them if they stand on their dig and fight Kev just runs. Should get the treatment most cowards get and be put to the sword by his party before the electorate does it to all of them.
David no relation: CPRS is just another nail in the coffin of wimpish cowardice and inaction. Even of you don’t like someone you have to admire them if they stand on their dig and fight Kev just runs. Should get the treatment most cowards get and be put to the sword by his party before the electorate does it to all of them.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudds-approval-rating-falls-below-50-per-cent-for-first-time/story-e6frf7jo-1225861769537
“But Mr O’Shannessy warned the big turnaround should be treated with caution, saying it fell in the “rogue poll” range.”
Enough pixels wasted on this nonsense, already.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudds-approval-rating-falls-below-50-per-cent-for-first-time/story-e6frf7jo-1225861769537
“But Mr O’Shannessy warned the big turnaround should be treated with caution, saying it fell in the “rogue poll” range.”
Enough pixels wasted on this nonsense, already.
It’s extraordinary.
The Coalition were a leaderless, divided rabble. Both Turnbull and Abbott won leadership by ONE vote!
Through thoughtless arousal of unrealistic expectation, poor management and pusillanimity Rudd has played the Coalition back into the game.
Scullin did the same thing, but at least his administration was leavened by the momentary courage of Red Ted Theodore.
It’s extraordinary.
The Coalition were a leaderless, divided rabble. Both Turnbull and Abbott won leadership by ONE vote!
Through thoughtless arousal of unrealistic expectation, poor management and pusillanimity Rudd has played the Coalition back into the game.
Scullin did the same thing, but at least his administration was leavened by the momentary courage of Red Ted Theodore.
Why would it? The Greens voted against the ETS. If the punters are pissed off at Kev for inaction on climate chnage, they sure aren’t rewarding either the Greens or the coalition.
A pox on all their houses?
Why would it? The Greens voted against the ETS. If the punters are pissed off at Kev for inaction on climate chnage, they sure aren’t rewarding either the Greens or the coalition.
A pox on all their houses?
If Mr Denmore is right, and Rudd is being advised by ex-Carr staffers, it explains a lot. Carr was without doubt the biggest waste of space as Premier whose main contributions during his long period in government were a near catastrophic rundown in public infrastructure and an almost total lack of vision or planning.
Mind you, no other government in Australia’s history has had to contend with such an overwhelmingly negative and hostile media.
If Mr Denmore is right, and Rudd is being advised by ex-Carr staffers, it explains a lot. Carr was without doubt the biggest waste of space as Premier whose main contributions during his long period in government were a near catastrophic rundown in public infrastructure and an almost total lack of vision or planning.
Mind you, no other government in Australia’s history has had to contend with such an overwhelmingly negative and hostile media.
Scullin and Whitlam might disagree.
Scullin and Whitlam might disagree.
CMMC #59, you’re right about the Newspoll insofar as it almost certainly overdraws the picture. Nonetheless the Essential and Morgan results which Possum discusses do suggest that there is a picture to be drawn.
The frustrating thing is that each of the three polls tells a completely different story about what the Green vote is doing (up in Essential, down in Morgan, static in Newspoll).
CMMC #59, you’re right about the Newspoll insofar as it almost certainly overdraws the picture. Nonetheless the Essential and Morgan results which Possum discusses do suggest that there is a picture to be drawn.
The frustrating thing is that each of the three polls tells a completely different story about what the Green vote is doing (up in Essential, down in Morgan, static in Newspoll).
‘Mind you, no other government in Australia’s history has had to contend with such an overwhelmingly negative and hostile media.’
No? What about Whitlam? It was a lot worse than what Rudd’s copped. And Whitlam actually stood for something, unlike this total waste of space.
‘Mind you, no other government in Australia’s history has had to contend with such an overwhelmingly negative and hostile media.’
No? What about Whitlam? It was a lot worse than what Rudd’s copped. And Whitlam actually stood for something, unlike this total waste of space.
I don’t know about Scullin, but during the Whitlam years, although The Australian went completely feral, The SMH wasn’t too bad and the ABC was still relatively impartial and not simply sucking on the News Ltd teat.
It was a different media landscape in those days as well even the commercials had a restraint and sense of proportion that we simply wouldn’t recognise today..
I don’t know about Scullin, but during the Whitlam years, although The Australian went completely feral, The SMH wasn’t too bad and the ABC was still relatively impartial and not simply sucking on the News Ltd teat.
It was a different media landscape in those days as well even the commercials had a restraint and sense of proportion that we simply wouldn’t recognise today..
Jack Lang faced hostility from the conservative press and the Labor-friendly press. The only newspaper which wasn’t explicitly anti-Lang was the Labor Daily (he was one of its Directors).
Jack Lang faced hostility from the conservative press and the Labor-friendly press. The only newspaper which wasn’t explicitly anti-Lang was the Labor Daily (he was one of its Directors).
Yes Paul, and look what happened to Whitlam.
He did manage to get through lasting reforms though. Better to burn out than fade away….??
Yes Paul, and look what happened to Whitlam.
He did manage to get through lasting reforms though. Better to burn out than fade away….??
To be fair to the NSW Right and to the NSW Head Office, they have no greater enemy at the moment than the PM’s office. Remember that this is the bunch who advised Rudd to endorse Nathan Rees in public weeks before they knifed him, and are now trying to parachute the failed ex-General Secretary onto the Senate ticket.
If Rudd’s doing government-by-Sussex-St, it’s only in spirit, not in person.
To be fair to the NSW Right and to the NSW Head Office, they have no greater enemy at the moment than the PM’s office. Remember that this is the bunch who advised Rudd to endorse Nathan Rees in public weeks before they knifed him, and are now trying to parachute the failed ex-General Secretary onto the Senate ticket.
If Rudd’s doing government-by-Sussex-St, it’s only in spirit, not in person.
When politicians become infected with risk-aversion management that’s when you know its poison has risen to the top. They’re simply products of a culture which worships at the corporate altar. The old dualism, that of State and Church is dead, long live State and Corporation. If we cannot disentangle them, we will be stuck with whatever fad sweeps through the business organism from one year to the next as clumsily proposed by their political mouthpieces.
Seen in that light, Rudd still wins because he called off the ETS and Abbott still loses because he keeps proposing new taxes. The question is how deeply we are conditioned to see things the corporate way and vote accordingly.
When politicians become infected with risk-aversion management that’s when you know its poison has risen to the top. They’re simply products of a culture which worships at the corporate altar. The old dualism, that of State and Church is dead, long live State and Corporation. If we cannot disentangle them, we will be stuck with whatever fad sweeps through the business organism from one year to the next as clumsily proposed by their political mouthpieces.
Seen in that light, Rudd still wins because he called off the ETS and Abbott still loses because he keeps proposing new taxes. The question is how deeply we are conditioned to see things the corporate way and vote accordingly.
Like John Grant, Rudd’s hubris appears to be his undoing. Question is, do we get to play Doc Tydon or does Abbott?
Labor can’t give the lad the flick before the election – that would look like an endorsement of mismanagement. But what they all have to do is start explaining in sentences of 30 words or less, what the hell they are doing.
Invoking Wake in Fright isn’t entirely in jest – Rudd may have appeared safe as Howard-Lite, and his wonk persona kinda cute, but the shilly-shallying of the last 12 months plays to a very vicious streak in Australians – our national hatred of the smart bastard. Especially the smart bastard who believes he’s as clever as he may well be. And frankly, Abbott is the perfect foil.
Like John Grant, Rudd’s hubris appears to be his undoing. Question is, do we get to play Doc Tydon or does Abbott?
Labor can’t give the lad the flick before the election – that would look like an endorsement of mismanagement. But what they all have to do is start explaining in sentences of 30 words or less, what the hell they are doing.
Invoking Wake in Fright isn’t entirely in jest – Rudd may have appeared safe as Howard-Lite, and his wonk persona kinda cute, but the shilly-shallying of the last 12 months plays to a very vicious streak in Australians – our national hatred of the smart bastard. Especially the smart bastard who believes he’s as clever as he may well be. And frankly, Abbott is the perfect foil.
Rudd is so, how can we put it…disappointing. For quite sometime commentators, even in the Oz, have been saying that an ALP win is definite. Hmm, that to me has never been entirely convincing, once the Libs got their act together (if..) then the public would start looking at them again, and that is what appears to be happening, aided by Labor.
Rudd is so, how can we put it…disappointing. For quite sometime commentators, even in the Oz, have been saying that an ALP win is definite. Hmm, that to me has never been entirely convincing, once the Libs got their act together (if..) then the public would start looking at them again, and that is what appears to be happening, aided by Labor.
You know, normally Id be extremely worried about a poll like this.
Admittedly, Im in Portugal as we speak, (having an ace time, and feeling glad to be away) – but I must admit, I just find I dont care.
If Rudd is prepared to squander his massive mandate with spineless poll sniffing, needless asylum bashing, and world-disappointing climate backdowns, keeping his opponent in the game by agreeing with him, when he’s ELECTORAL POISON: then I actually dont care if he loses. WHats the point of you, Rudd? And what halfwits are advising you mate? Some low rent state ALP hacks?
Leadership challenge, anyone?
You know, normally Id be extremely worried about a poll like this.
Admittedly, Im in Portugal as we speak, (having an ace time, and feeling glad to be away) – but I must admit, I just find I dont care.
If Rudd is prepared to squander his massive mandate with spineless poll sniffing, needless asylum bashing, and world-disappointing climate backdowns, keeping his opponent in the game by agreeing with him, when he’s ELECTORAL POISON: then I actually dont care if he loses. WHats the point of you, Rudd? And what halfwits are advising you mate? Some low rent state ALP hacks?
Leadership challenge, anyone?
Lefty, Well..we as always need to look at the alternative. Tony A has not quite engaged with the Australian people, but there is the possibility that as they became disengaged with Rudd they will by default leak over to Tony. Boa Noite & Boa Sorte
Lefty, Well..we as always need to look at the alternative. Tony A has not quite engaged with the Australian people, but there is the possibility that as they became disengaged with Rudd they will by default leak over to Tony. Boa Noite & Boa Sorte
Except for the “Libs got their act together” part.
Except for the “Libs got their act together” part.
Some people are very harsh on Kevin Rudd. Don’t forget, Abbott has nearly ALL the media actively behind him. News Ltd, the ABC, the national shock jock networks, regional dailies.
That is one of the reasons someone who is electoral POISON has been able to get within striking distance.
Some people are very harsh on Kevin Rudd. Don’t forget, Abbott has nearly ALL the media actively behind him. News Ltd, the ABC, the national shock jock networks, regional dailies.
That is one of the reasons someone who is electoral POISON has been able to get within striking distance.
Tim, I think they are getting their act together, they aren’t there yet but they’re a more credible (as an opposition with a chance of winning)than they were through 2008/9. Tony has the potential to do something quite silly, he will be being advised to restrain himself …
Tim, I think they are getting their act together, they aren’t there yet but they’re a more credible (as an opposition with a chance of winning)than they were through 2008/9. Tony has the potential to do something quite silly, he will be being advised to restrain himself …
Most of us can’t take this poll seriously, probably for good reason. But, as others have observed, if we’re wrong, and the sky does fall in and the Opposition gets up, let’s not lose sight of why. The notion that the electorate would actually vote FOR Abbott is nothing short of ludicrous. No, if the unthinkable happens, this will all be due to the behaviour of Rudd in the last few months, which, to put it charitably, has been nothing short of bizarre. Think back to the point when Abbott was elected leader, and consider the possibility that, four and a bit short months later, a mainstream poll (albeit Newpoll) could have had them in front. If any of us had predicted this at the time, we’d have been rightly certified.
Sure this poll is probably suspect, but the very fact that it could even get close to this is an absolute indictment on Rudd. I’m with Lefty E – he’s brought it all on himself, and deserves the consequences.
Most of us can’t take this poll seriously, probably for good reason. But, as others have observed, if we’re wrong, and the sky does fall in and the Opposition gets up, let’s not lose sight of why. The notion that the electorate would actually vote FOR Abbott is nothing short of ludicrous. No, if the unthinkable happens, this will all be due to the behaviour of Rudd in the last few months, which, to put it charitably, has been nothing short of bizarre. Think back to the point when Abbott was elected leader, and consider the possibility that, four and a bit short months later, a mainstream poll (albeit Newpoll) could have had them in front. If any of us had predicted this at the time, we’d have been rightly certified.
Sure this poll is probably suspect, but the very fact that it could even get close to this is an absolute indictment on Rudd. I’m with Lefty E – he’s brought it all on himself, and deserves the consequences.
Let’s not fall into the trap of underestimating the Libs or overstating the electorate’s aversion to Abbott- often stated as if it were an incontrovertible fact. Labor did not win by a huge margin in 2007, as is often put about, it will take a fairly modest swing to unseat them
Let’s not fall into the trap of underestimating the Libs or overstating the electorate’s aversion to Abbott- often stated as if it were an incontrovertible fact. Labor did not win by a huge margin in 2007, as is often put about, it will take a fairly modest swing to unseat them
Snorky, Ive heard it said Rudd recently lost his nana so badly in a meeting with New Ltd types, that his minder had to physically drag him off.
He needs a rest, he needs to devolve decision making to ministers, he needs to hire more staff.
And supporters need to stop seeing him as magic, and give him the word – stick to the mandate, muchacho. Ignore the hollow men – these are the same idiots who will lose the ALP govt in QLD, to some of the most shambolic no-hopers to ever walk into an Australian parliament.
And above all, stop taking cues from Tones, on any damn issue.
I do think this poll is probably a bit bung, but it still contains a message: if youre going to be like Tones, on any issues of substance, we’ll vote ‘other’.
Snorky, Ive heard it said Rudd recently lost his nana so badly in a meeting with New Ltd types, that his minder had to physically drag him off.
He needs a rest, he needs to devolve decision making to ministers, he needs to hire more staff.
And supporters need to stop seeing him as magic, and give him the word – stick to the mandate, muchacho. Ignore the hollow men – these are the same idiots who will lose the ALP govt in QLD, to some of the most shambolic no-hopers to ever walk into an Australian parliament.
And above all, stop taking cues from Tones, on any damn issue.
I do think this poll is probably a bit bung, but it still contains a message: if youre going to be like Tones, on any issues of substance, we’ll vote ‘other’.
The delusion here is wonderful to see. The ALP is a usless collection of know-nothing neanderthals. “Progressive?” ha!
Progresive is rejecting AGW, rejecting equality of outcome, identity politics, union thuggery and sheer left-wing idiocy.
The delusion here is wonderful to see. The ALP is a usless collection of know-nothing neanderthals. “Progressive?” ha!
Progresive is rejecting AGW, rejecting equality of outcome, identity politics, union thuggery and sheer left-wing idiocy.
Rococo Liberal:
Youre not rococo. You’re baroque.
Rococo Liberal:
Youre not rococo. You’re baroque.
Hopefully the new maternity leave legislation will get the govt back on track, after a bullshit couple of weeks of pissing their pants in the face of reform, just cos a rolled-gold loser like Abbott said ‘boo’.
Hopefully the new maternity leave legislation will get the govt back on track, after a bullshit couple of weeks of pissing their pants in the face of reform, just cos a rolled-gold loser like Abbott said ‘boo’.
I had him pegged as kitsch.
I had him pegged as kitsch.
Not so sure, Paul. I know that conventional wisdom invests a great deal in this historical precedent, but it doesn’t stand up so well to scrutiny. Prior to the incumbents, we’ve only had five first-term governments since WW2, which is a pretty small sample from which to derive any general rules.
Furthermore, none of these governments saw out a full 3 years in their first term; it only stands to reason that if you wait an extra year before going to the polls, you have that much more opportunity to accumulate political baggage and wear out your welcome. Whitlam is Exhibit A; had he not called a DD election in 1974 and instead waited until late 1975, there’s little doubt he would have been a “oncer”.
A closer study of history suggests that Rudd’s best chance of winning a comfortable re-election (which he needs to secure his own position vs Gillard) was to bring on an election late last year when Turnbull was at his nadir. Now that Rudd has broken with this precedent, and governed since then with all the conviction and composure of a deer caught in the headlights, I might suggest that all bets are off. Anyone making confident predictions now is just guessing,
Not so sure, Paul. I know that conventional wisdom invests a great deal in this historical precedent, but it doesn’t stand up so well to scrutiny. Prior to the incumbents, we’ve only had five first-term governments since WW2, which is a pretty small sample from which to derive any general rules.
Furthermore, none of these governments saw out a full 3 years in their first term; it only stands to reason that if you wait an extra year before going to the polls, you have that much more opportunity to accumulate political baggage and wear out your welcome. Whitlam is Exhibit A; had he not called a DD election in 1974 and instead waited until late 1975, there’s little doubt he would have been a “oncer”.
A closer study of history suggests that Rudd’s best chance of winning a comfortable re-election (which he needs to secure his own position vs Gillard) was to bring on an election late last year when Turnbull was at his nadir. Now that Rudd has broken with this precedent, and governed since then with all the conviction and composure of a deer caught in the headlights, I might suggest that all bets are off. Anyone making confident predictions now is just guessing,
I fear you may be right, tim g. If Rudd does throw away Labor’s advantage, he will occupy a very ignominious position in history.
I fear you may be right, tim g. If Rudd does throw away Labor’s advantage, he will occupy a very ignominious position in history.
The main issue is that there is a big assumption going on that green preferences will flow as they have and in the same proportion. Who knows. I don’t think that 35% is accurate and Labor won in 1990 with a below 40% figure but the fact that is discussed indicates that it is a rare case. This poll is starting to look closer to the 2004 election result than 2007 ….. not good. I doubt that either party really deserves to win well. What I would like to see a poll of is whether if Howard were to magically be 64 and Conservative leader would they be more likely to vote Conservative … this would be dangerous if a bout of nostalgia broke out!
The main issue is that there is a big assumption going on that green preferences will flow as they have and in the same proportion. Who knows. I don’t think that 35% is accurate and Labor won in 1990 with a below 40% figure but the fact that is discussed indicates that it is a rare case. This poll is starting to look closer to the 2004 election result than 2007 ….. not good. I doubt that either party really deserves to win well. What I would like to see a poll of is whether if Howard were to magically be 64 and Conservative leader would they be more likely to vote Conservative … this would be dangerous if a bout of nostalgia broke out!
We are screwed. Would Gilliard make a good leader? She sure would.
Would the great mass of Australians vote for a woman PM? Nope.
I cannot believe we are going to get Abbott as PM just because of a tax on cigarettes
We are screwed. Would Gilliard make a good leader? She sure would.
Would the great mass of Australians vote for a woman PM? Nope.
I cannot believe we are going to get Abbott as PM just because of a tax on cigarettes
This has turned into the thread of doom and gloom. One bad poll, probably a rogue anyway and the breast beaters are ready to throw Rudd off a cliff. Pathetic really.
This has turned into the thread of doom and gloom. One bad poll, probably a rogue anyway and the breast beaters are ready to throw Rudd off a cliff. Pathetic really.
It’s a pity. Rudd’s been the best leader we’ve had for ages.
It’s a pity. Rudd’s been the best leader we’ve had for ages.
Spare me tssk, you would have the g.g. sack him for farting.
Spare me tssk, you would have the g.g. sack him for farting.
Yes tssk, you’re one of the worst concern trolls around.
Meanwhile on your ABC, lead story on AM is how the world share markets have been battered by Australia’s super mining tax. Who would have thought. It’s wall to wall miners on the ABC lately.
Yes tssk, you’re one of the worst concern trolls around.
Meanwhile on your ABC, lead story on AM is how the world share markets have been battered by Australia’s super mining tax. Who would have thought. It’s wall to wall miners on the ABC lately.
Miners my arse. Theyre mining companies. Miners union supports the tax.
And I dont give a shit if the mining companies threaten pullout – I laugh in their face!
plenty more companies will take their place if they dont want the licence to print money. Of course, its all complete BS – none of them will go anyehere. Just having a big whinge.
They’ll fund Tones’ campagin though. There’s his finance probloem solved.
Miners my arse. Theyre mining companies. Miners union supports the tax.
And I dont give a shit if the mining companies threaten pullout – I laugh in their face!
plenty more companies will take their place if they dont want the licence to print money. Of course, its all complete BS – none of them will go anyehere. Just having a big whinge.
They’ll fund Tones’ campagin though. There’s his finance probloem solved.
The punters react to Newspoll – a little bit. Mostly a yawn.
Centrebet yesterday: ALP @ $1.31, Coalition $3.34. Centrebet today: ALP @ $1.37, Coalition $3.00
The punters react to Newspoll – a little bit. Mostly a yawn.
Centrebet yesterday: ALP @ $1.31, Coalition $3.34. Centrebet today: ALP @ $1.37, Coalition $3.00
tssk tried:
Nor I. Nor does anyone with a modicum of insight.
I’ll go further: Abbott will never again be in the Federal cabinet, whatever happens to Rudd.
tssk tried:
Nor I. Nor does anyone with a modicum of insight.
I’ll go further: Abbott will never again be in the Federal cabinet, whatever happens to Rudd.
Leaving aside the personality profiling for a moment, what do we have?
We have a situation where twice – once when the insulation scheme was put on hold, and again more recently when a whole range of schemes were dumped – Rudd came out and said Labor would take a hit in the polls. And they did. I’m going to take a wild stab here and say he knew what he was doing, and expected the dip.
We could discuss the sliding doors world where he did neither of those things, and speculate on what the media narrative might be. I suspect he might have been taking hits on that stuff right up to the election, and it would have muddied the waters. Obviously he felt the actions were necessary, and was prepared to wear it. The likeliest outcome is that the worst of the ‘bad news’ Labor had to deliver is over.
We also have a situation where the Liberal primary vote remained essentially static. It tends to suggest that whatever support Abbott can expect from the electorate, he’s getting it now. More of the negative talk could only reinforce the vote he has locked in. It seems unlikely to gain any more support.
Plus we have an odd result where the ‘Others’ vote nearly doubled. The way Newspoll distributes preferences advantaged the Coalition – but on the face of it, the votes left Labor and didn’t go to the Liberals. They got parked in a ‘protest zone’.
So the way I see it, one of two things can happen:
1. The Coalition suddenly comes up with sensible, fully costed policies that are palatable to the electorate, and actually do the hard yards in winning support rather than sitting back and nay-saying in the hopes of white-anting the government. That would see them raise their primary vote.
2. Labor, having now cleared the decks, claws back the support they have lost, taking them back from a hair’s-breadth victory (which is the worst you can say about them now) to a more comfortable win. They’d need to project a more confident, unified face than they are currently doing in order for that to happen.
Leaving aside the personality profiling for a moment, what do we have?
We have a situation where twice – once when the insulation scheme was put on hold, and again more recently when a whole range of schemes were dumped – Rudd came out and said Labor would take a hit in the polls. And they did. I’m going to take a wild stab here and say he knew what he was doing, and expected the dip.
We could discuss the sliding doors world where he did neither of those things, and speculate on what the media narrative might be. I suspect he might have been taking hits on that stuff right up to the election, and it would have muddied the waters. Obviously he felt the actions were necessary, and was prepared to wear it. The likeliest outcome is that the worst of the ‘bad news’ Labor had to deliver is over.
We also have a situation where the Liberal primary vote remained essentially static. It tends to suggest that whatever support Abbott can expect from the electorate, he’s getting it now. More of the negative talk could only reinforce the vote he has locked in. It seems unlikely to gain any more support.
Plus we have an odd result where the ‘Others’ vote nearly doubled. The way Newspoll distributes preferences advantaged the Coalition – but on the face of it, the votes left Labor and didn’t go to the Liberals. They got parked in a ‘protest zone’.
So the way I see it, one of two things can happen:
1. The Coalition suddenly comes up with sensible, fully costed policies that are palatable to the electorate, and actually do the hard yards in winning support rather than sitting back and nay-saying in the hopes of white-anting the government. That would see them raise their primary vote.
2. Labor, having now cleared the decks, claws back the support they have lost, taking them back from a hair’s-breadth victory (which is the worst you can say about them now) to a more comfortable win. They’d need to project a more confident, unified face than they are currently doing in order for that to happen.
Paul: two Coalition Senators crossed the floor on the previous ETS vote (one is retiring) and I understand would be willing to do so again. With the five Green votes the numbers are there to pass the ETS.
The Greens have the perfect strategy: vote down the ETS and then accuse Rudd of cowardice for simply admitting that he can’t get the scheme through the Senate.
As I’ve said before, the ALP could take some lessions in cynical politics from the Greens. The Greens and Ralph Nader in the US helped give us the wonderful Bush presidency and are now doing their bloody-minded best to elect an Abbott government here. All I can say to Green supporters is that when Abbott introduces whatever his version of Sharia law is, don’t whinge to ALP supporters.
The Greens: stupid and dangerous.
Paul: two Coalition Senators crossed the floor on the previous ETS vote (one is retiring) and I understand would be willing to do so again. With the five Green votes the numbers are there to pass the ETS.
The Greens have the perfect strategy: vote down the ETS and then accuse Rudd of cowardice for simply admitting that he can’t get the scheme through the Senate.
As I’ve said before, the ALP could take some lessions in cynical politics from the Greens. The Greens and Ralph Nader in the US helped give us the wonderful Bush presidency and are now doing their bloody-minded best to elect an Abbott government here. All I can say to Green supporters is that when Abbott introduces whatever his version of Sharia law is, don’t whinge to ALP supporters.
The Greens: stupid and dangerous.
Well said, Ginja – I used to vote Greens often – not again. Or not with the current leadership.
Well said, Ginja – I used to vote Greens often – not again. Or not with the current leadership.
adrian @ 98 – if not the Greens, then who?
The implications of the poll are being exaggerated. Its only one poll and its not even really showing a shift to the liberal party, just to the “others” which may or may not end up with the liberal party. Meanwhile Rudd has got likely got most of the bad news out and there’ll be some bribes in the upcoming budget as well as some just before the election.
adrian @ 98 – if not the Greens, then who?
The implications of the poll are being exaggerated. Its only one poll and its not even really showing a shift to the liberal party, just to the “others” which may or may not end up with the liberal party. Meanwhile Rudd has got likely got most of the bad news out and there’ll be some bribes in the upcoming budget as well as some just before the election.