The latest Essential Research report, covering the first week of June, contains some reassuring findings but also some which are seriously disturbing.
First, the good news. The report finds that the Rudd government continues to hold a two-party-preferred lead (52/48) over the Coalition.
The bad news is contained in some quite scary findings of public ignorance on the asylum seekers issue.
Respondents were asked the question:
And from what you have read and heard, what percentage of Australia’s annual immigration intake are asylum seekers arriving by boat?
Only 18 per cent of respondents correctly answered “1% or less”. (In 2008-2009, Australia granted migration visas to 171,318 people, whilst there were just 1043 “illegal maritime arrivals”.) Thirty per cent of respondents didn’t know, 38 per cent of respondents think that boat people make up at least 10 per cent of the annual immigration intake, and 10 per cent think that over half of Australia’s immigration intake are asylum seekers arriving by boat.
Worrying, and an indictment of our media and our politicians, with all too few exceptions.
Update: Possum has previously posted on this issue whilst I was travelling in The Hills of the Chankly Bore, and is well worth reading.
Yep Paul – its a worrying statistic. Progressives on this issue have usually assumed its best never to talk about these issues; a dont scare the horses approach.
I think that’s misguided – Fraser had real numbers to sell, and did so. These are piddling numbers. I think it would be a good figure for the govt to circulate – ie tack on to the end of the usual spiel “we need strong but fair policy – and bear in mind asylum seekers arriving by boat represent less than 1% of Australia’s annual intake”.
Or “the entire number of asylum seekers arriving by boat in the last ten years is less than one Australian annual refugee quota”
My own view is that Rudd should remove the major “pull factor” for boats created by Howard and maintained since by Rudd: there is no ‘queue’ in Southeast Asia. Australian governments have never taken ANYONE from Indonesia’s poorly funded UNHCR
office. If Rudd said “we will now take half our annual offshore quota from the region” , and people saw it happening, boats would dry up to a trickle. No one wants to travel by boat. Its just that there is no other way to access Australia’s protection. Its a massive pull factor.
IMO, This would solve a lot of Rudd’s headaches – and keep our international commitments intact. No need to penalise people who come by boat – just make it a poor potion compared to waiting on a genuine queue.
Yep Paul – its a worrying statistic. Progressives on this issue have usually assumed its best never to talk about these issues; a dont scare the horses approach.
I think that’s misguided – Fraser had real numbers to sell, and did so. These are piddling numbers. I think it would be a good figure for the govt to circulate – ie tack on to the end of the usual spiel “we need strong but fair policy – and bear in mind asylum seekers arriving by boat represent less than 1% of Australia’s annual intake”.
Or “the entire number of asylum seekers arriving by boat in the last ten years is less than one Australian annual refugee quota”
My own view is that Rudd should remove the major “pull factor” for boats created by Howard and maintained since by Rudd: there is no ‘queue’ in Southeast Asia. Australian governments have never taken ANYONE from Indonesia’s poorly funded UNHCR
office. If Rudd said “we will now take half our annual offshore quota from the region” , and people saw it happening, boats would dry up to a trickle. No one wants to travel by boat. Its just that there is no other way to access Australia’s protection. Its a massive pull factor.
IMO, This would solve a lot of Rudd’s headaches – and keep our international commitments intact. No need to penalise people who come by boat – just make it a poor potion compared to waiting on a genuine queue.
that’s “…make it a poor *option* compared to waiting on a genuine queue.”
that’s “…make it a poor *option* compared to waiting on a genuine queue.”
Have GetUp take out a billboard ad: a pie chart showing the 08-09 intake figures above. People straining their eyes to see the sliver that represents the boats is infinitely more effective than politician doorstop advocacy. People don’t listen to politicians, remember?
Have GetUp take out a billboard ad: a pie chart showing the 08-09 intake figures above. People straining their eyes to see the sliver that represents the boats is infinitely more effective than politician doorstop advocacy. People don’t listen to politicians, remember?
Not at all surprising.
Your idea would also be good for relations with our big neighbour, LeftyE, not that anyone cares about that either.
Not at all surprising.
Your idea would also be good for relations with our big neighbour, LeftyE, not that anyone cares about that either.
Interesting results in today’s Essential: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2010/06/Essential-Report_150610.pdf
- Green primary continues to grow at ALPs expense
- LNP better at handling economy, but ALP have edge on handling economy for interests of working people (the ‘lived economy’ notion)
- ALP and LNP both flatlining on enviro cred.
- Mining companies are as popular (or unpopular) as trade unions – slight edge to trade unions in fact.
- Very even on RSPT with high (17%) undecided
- Only popular leaders in whole country are former PMs.
- very strong support for genuine asylum seekers (59%). This is is not straightforward: as we know, its more about perceptions of control, than of hostility to asylum claims.
Interesting results in today’s Essential: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2010/06/Essential-Report_150610.pdf
- Green primary continues to grow at ALPs expense
- LNP better at handling economy, but ALP have edge on handling economy for interests of working people (the ‘lived economy’ notion)
- ALP and LNP both flatlining on enviro cred.
- Mining companies are as popular (or unpopular) as trade unions – slight edge to trade unions in fact.
- Very even on RSPT with high (17%) undecided
- Only popular leaders in whole country are former PMs.
- very strong support for genuine asylum seekers (59%). This is is not straightforward: as we know, its more about perceptions of control, than of hostility to asylum claims.
Paul I think it’s too facile to say it’s ‘an indictment of our media and our politicians’. IMHO a considerable number of people don’t know because they don’t care; or more accurately, they are convinced they already know and they are not about to listen to anything that contradicts that belief. Politicians and the media could spout the correct figures on the hour every hour and lots of people wouldn’t hear because they choose not to listen. Many would, however, have a pre-existing opinion based on prejudice and god knows what that they will adhere to regardless of evidence or data.
There’s been a lot of good work over the years on the ability of people to believe something to be true even when confronted with evidence that it is demonstrably false. Brendan Nyhan has been publishing some fascinating stuff lately that demonstrates many people will respond to the falsification of their pet prejudices by believing them EVEN MORE FIRMLY.
We read a lot of comments here blaming the media for people’s misconceptions, as if all that needs to happen is for the media to start telling the facts in an honest, balanced fashion and then everybody will develop rational opinions. There are simply no grounds for expecting that to be the case.
Paul I think it’s too facile to say it’s ‘an indictment of our media and our politicians’. IMHO a considerable number of people don’t know because they don’t care; or more accurately, they are convinced they already know and they are not about to listen to anything that contradicts that belief. Politicians and the media could spout the correct figures on the hour every hour and lots of people wouldn’t hear because they choose not to listen. Many would, however, have a pre-existing opinion based on prejudice and god knows what that they will adhere to regardless of evidence or data.
There’s been a lot of good work over the years on the ability of people to believe something to be true even when confronted with evidence that it is demonstrably false. Brendan Nyhan has been publishing some fascinating stuff lately that demonstrates many people will respond to the falsification of their pet prejudices by believing them EVEN MORE FIRMLY.
We read a lot of comments here blaming the media for people’s misconceptions, as if all that needs to happen is for the media to start telling the facts in an honest, balanced fashion and then everybody will develop rational opinions. There are simply no grounds for expecting that to be the case.
We’re all rooned!
We’re all rooned!
@6 – Ken, there’s some similarity in the findings of polls in the US which show a lot of people think that 10-30% of the federal budget goes on overseas aid, rather than the less than 1% figure which actually does. I suspect that the media does have a role to play here, in that when the issue comes up, it always focuses on a small part of the immigration puzzle, and therefore, because the rest is pretty much ignored or not discussed in any depth, that comes to stand in for the whole.
@6 – Ken, there’s some similarity in the findings of polls in the US which show a lot of people think that 10-30% of the federal budget goes on overseas aid, rather than the less than 1% figure which actually does. I suspect that the media does have a role to play here, in that when the issue comes up, it always focuses on a small part of the immigration puzzle, and therefore, because the rest is pretty much ignored or not discussed in any depth, that comes to stand in for the whole.
Re Ken Lovell’s, #7, its true that Media Watch continues to expose the msm, as with Monday nights report on the Chris Mitchell effort to stitch up Victorian police commisioner Overland.
The people would eventually settle down as far as boatpeople are concerned, except that the Tories and their friends keep spooking the ignorant and fearful with their updated variation of the old yellow peril horror story: As Howard Cunningham says, people are filled with Tony Abbott’s old “we’ll be rooned” nonsenses and the simple solutions to illusory non issues that would show them to be the chimera they are are, once again prevented from being instigated, by black propaganda reinforcement of prejudice born of ignorance..
Re Ken Lovell’s, #7, its true that Media Watch continues to expose the msm, as with Monday nights report on the Chris Mitchell effort to stitch up Victorian police commisioner Overland.
The people would eventually settle down as far as boatpeople are concerned, except that the Tories and their friends keep spooking the ignorant and fearful with their updated variation of the old yellow peril horror story: As Howard Cunningham says, people are filled with Tony Abbott’s old “we’ll be rooned” nonsenses and the simple solutions to illusory non issues that would show them to be the chimera they are are, once again prevented from being instigated, by black propaganda reinforcement of prejudice born of ignorance..
I was actually commenting on Ken’s hopelessness regarding educating people.
Regarding Mark’s most recent point, overseas aid (and immigration to some extent) is one of those things that it may not necessarily be people having all the accurate and relevant information at their disposal.
In the above cases, some people believe that no overseas aid and no immigration are the right levels. While the immigration belief tends to be more based on xenophobia, I think a lot of people think we should only provide aid to other countries when Australia’s problems, such as homelessness, are entirely eradicated or rendered negligible, which, of course, is virtually impossible.
It’s a truism: some people just won’t be told. With many others, the right way of telling them just hasn’t been found, or is being ignored because the means aren’t desirable.
I was actually commenting on Ken’s hopelessness regarding educating people.
Regarding Mark’s most recent point, overseas aid (and immigration to some extent) is one of those things that it may not necessarily be people having all the accurate and relevant information at their disposal.
In the above cases, some people believe that no overseas aid and no immigration are the right levels. While the immigration belief tends to be more based on xenophobia, I think a lot of people think we should only provide aid to other countries when Australia’s problems, such as homelessness, are entirely eradicated or rendered negligible, which, of course, is virtually impossible.
It’s a truism: some people just won’t be told. With many others, the right way of telling them just hasn’t been found, or is being ignored because the means aren’t desirable.
H&R @ 3 – Maybe something like this or this is easy for the public to understand quickly?
H&R @ 3 – Maybe something like this or this is easy for the public to understand quickly?
Mark @ 8 I don’t want to give the impression that I believe media reporting doesn’t influence anyone at all; clearly it does. Presentation of facts in a distorted or deliberately selective manner means even curious, open-minded people are likely to reach incorrect conclusions. I’m only concerned to correct what I discern as a tendency to blame all misconceptions on the media with the implication that if only the media would be balanced and accurate, people would change their thinking. Many people will seize on the points that support their preconceived beliefs and ignore everything else, no matter how the MSM does its job.
Mark @ 8 I don’t want to give the impression that I believe media reporting doesn’t influence anyone at all; clearly it does. Presentation of facts in a distorted or deliberately selective manner means even curious, open-minded people are likely to reach incorrect conclusions. I’m only concerned to correct what I discern as a tendency to blame all misconceptions on the media with the implication that if only the media would be balanced and accurate, people would change their thinking. Many people will seize on the points that support their preconceived beliefs and ignore everything else, no matter how the MSM does its job.
@12 – I don’t disagree, Ken.
But I think the key here is whether people “care” about the issue. There may be fewer who do if the facts were better known.
@12 – I don’t disagree, Ken.
But I think the key here is whether people “care” about the issue. There may be fewer who do if the facts were better known.
LE @ 1 – and the pull factor you refer to is caused by the fact that we are signatories to the UN Convention on Refugees (1959 I think).
Australia should cease being a signatory to this flawed Convention. That would kill the pull factor.
LE @ 1 – and the pull factor you refer to is caused by the fact that we are signatories to the UN Convention on Refugees (1959 I think).
Australia should cease being a signatory to this flawed Convention. That would kill the pull factor.
If you read the ER poll above, Razor – you’ll find your position rejecting by 59% of Australians, who support offering refuge to genuine refugees.
As noted, people’s percpetions of ‘control’ over those flows are the trickier issue. Thats why John Howard’s failed policy of attracting boats by not having an orderly queue in our region should now be demolished by Rudd.
Sorry,but the Australian public just isnt concerned about the ‘pull factor’ you speak of. They support it.
If you read the ER poll above, Razor – you’ll find your position rejecting by 59% of Australians, who support offering refuge to genuine refugees.
As noted, people’s percpetions of ‘control’ over those flows are the trickier issue. Thats why John Howard’s failed policy of attracting boats by not having an orderly queue in our region should now be demolished by Rudd.
Sorry,but the Australian public just isnt concerned about the ‘pull factor’ you speak of. They support it.
I think the number was actually 51-49.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2010/06/Essential-Report_150610.pdf
I think the number was actually 51-49.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2010/06/Essential-Report_150610.pdf
LE @ 15 – I never said that Australia stops accepting refugees. Just withdraw from the convention.
LE @ 15 – I never said that Australia stops accepting refugees. Just withdraw from the convention.
John #16, the 2PP figure certainly is 51-49 in the latest ER poll which you’ve linked to. However it was 52-48 in the previous report to which I linked in the opening post.
John #16, the 2PP figure certainly is 51-49 in the latest ER poll which you’ve linked to. However it was 52-48 in the previous report to which I linked in the opening post.