Paul Norton observed here at LP yesterday that we’re in uncharted psephological waters, with both major parties on low primaries and both leaders relatively unpopular. A host of questions have therefore arisen: about the likely flow of preferences from The Greens and ‘Others’, about the distribution of the anti-ALP swing, and about what 2PP would ensure victory. It’s interesting, therefore, to see some marginal seat polling, something that parties normally conduct privately via tracking polls of a sample drawn from several marginal, but which are rarely done by public pollsters.
The Australian has duly delivered.
I want to enter some further caveats, but I’d like to start by saying that the polling data stands aside from its misinterpretation by Newspoll’s owners (egregious comments from Dennis Shanahan implying that the three marginals surveyed in Queensland could be translated into a state wide swing are just the start). Nor is the conclusion drawn from it implied by the poll itself. We can set aside the questions about Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s relative popularity, for instance, as meaningless given their lack of relationship to any probable set of circumstances between now and the election (and Peter Van Onselen must have finally recognised this, segueing into the next media narrative, a series of tedious and tendentious questions about whether Gillard will commit to supporting Rudd’s leadership in the next term).
But what does the polling actually tell us?
(a) As Possum suggests, we can set aside the Lindsay survey as undoubtedly contaminated by the concurrent Penrith campaign and by-election, and observe also that Labor’s primary in the poll of federal voting intentions is higher than that in the by-election;
(b) The 3 Queensland marginals do suggest that the swing against Labor is translating to a swing to the Coalition rather than The Greens in at least those seats (noting that the margin of error is approximately 4%). But, as Possum observes also, seats swing to greater and lesser degrees, as indicated by the result in Page.
(c) If some Labor MPs are right, it may be that the ETS issue is biting in some seats, and issues about asylum seekers in others. Of course, that’s not all that’s going on.
Having said all that, the polling wouldn’t bring any great delight to the government or to Labor supporters. But we should also beware of assuming that the political situation is static, and will remain so until the election. Of interest here is William Bowe’s point about the softness of The Greens’ vote. And Laura Tingle rightly observed in today’s Fin that the government is still the government and can get on with governing. Parental leave and the NBN-Telstra deal are no small matters, and nor is the signing of $10 billion worth of contracts with China, an event which tends to disrupt the narrative about the evils of the RSPT.
And unemployment and interest rates are low. Nor, as Tingle argues, can Tony Abbott continue his disappearing act for much longer. And Coalition supporters really should be asking what sort of leader they have when Abbott has to be hidden to avoid his unpopularity pulling down the party’s vote in the polls. That’s what they’ve been up to.
Nor am I sure that Abbott’s bouts of triumphalism when he does appear are all that helpful to his cause.
Elsewhere: Guy Beres’ take on the Lindsay poll.
I don’t see how the marginal Qld seats polling can be realistically clumped together, or construed to mean anything. It’s 600 people across all 3 seats, and the seats are separated by some serious geography, and considering that there’s no big national issues to affect farmers, they’ll be decided on economics and local issues, like every election.
I don’t see how the marginal Qld seats polling can be realistically clumped together, or construed to mean anything. It’s 600 people across all 3 seats, and the seats are separated by some serious geography, and considering that there’s no big national issues to affect farmers, they’ll be decided on economics and local issues, like every election.
John, it’s possible to query the selection of these particular seats, but as I suggested in the post, it’s normal practice in major party private polling to group together a sample from a number of demographically similar marginals in one survey.
John, it’s possible to query the selection of these particular seats, but as I suggested in the post, it’s normal practice in major party private polling to group together a sample from a number of demographically similar marginals in one survey.
Possum also points out that Labor’s 2PP has risen by one percent for each of the last three polls. Hardly an endorsement of the ‘lock Tony away” election strategy?
Possum also points out that Labor’s 2PP has risen by one percent for each of the last three polls. Hardly an endorsement of the ‘lock Tony away” election strategy?
I think the idea of a PM that keeps a low profile and doesn’t talk too much could be a good thing. However I wouldn’t want one that is a policy free zone.
I think the idea of a PM that keeps a low profile and doesn’t talk too much could be a good thing. However I wouldn’t want one that is a policy free zone.
Malcolm Farnsworth on The Drum provides the best analysis I’ve seen to date about the media nonsense we are seeing over opinion polls – particularly the cynical use of polling to drive the news narrative.
Malcolm Farnsworth on The Drum provides the best analysis I’ve seen to date about the media nonsense we are seeing over opinion polls – particularly the cynical use of polling to drive the news narrative.
@5 – cheers, thanks for the link, Mr Denmore. Interesting piece.
@5 – cheers, thanks for the link, Mr Denmore. Interesting piece.
Elsewhere: Guy Beres’ take on the Lindsay poll.
Elsewhere: Guy Beres’ take on the Lindsay poll.
Mr Denmore, I read that piece during [cough] an idle moment at work today, and it really pleased me to see some sensible analysis on Our ABC for a change.
Mr Denmore, I read that piece during [cough] an idle moment at work today, and it really pleased me to see some sensible analysis on Our ABC for a change.
See some good but more bad news in those 5 seats
Both NSW seats at 600 people is a sound sampl
Page looking very good for Labor and a swing TO Labor , and 2nd plus from this is it indicating all marginals elsewhere will not go same way
Lindsay is poluted says Mark , true but 12% swing against Federl Labor makes it a probable loss seat for mine
3 Q’ld seats Mark says 600 polled in total so moe on edge there , and normaly you’d say big problam holding , but this is a poll in middle of a RSPT scare campaign , so better to wait & see after RSPT is solved , but signs not good
These show , again , Newspolls headline results quite irelevant when 2 PPT is close (as SA electon showed) , but could not see Labor winning with 35% primary anyway but is improveable as i sense Greens vote is ‘soft’
See some good but more bad news in those 5 seats
Both NSW seats at 600 people is a sound sampl
Page looking very good for Labor and a swing TO Labor , and 2nd plus from this is it indicating all marginals elsewhere will not go same way
Lindsay is poluted says Mark , true but 12% swing against Federl Labor makes it a probable loss seat for mine
3 Q’ld seats Mark says 600 polled in total so moe on edge there , and normaly you’d say big problam holding , but this is a poll in middle of a RSPT scare campaign , so better to wait & see after RSPT is solved , but signs not good
These show , again , Newspolls headline results quite irelevant when 2 PPT is close (as SA electon showed) , but could not see Labor winning with 35% primary anyway but is improveable as i sense Greens vote is ‘soft’
I just want to say well done to Bob McMullan for his performance on Agenda tonight (excluding the part when he bashed the Greens). He gave The Australian & the Canberra press gallery both barrels for the “Gillard must step in for Rudd” rubbish and the clearly biased reporting of the Newspoll results. He didn’t get personal with David Speers but he spelt it out to him that on these figures Labor would be returned and that (supposedly) no Opposition leader has won from where Abbott’s personal polling is currently.
It was a very effective performance and a shame we haven’t been seeing more of this in calling out the OO and the lemmings in the press. One of the two CPG journo’s on afterwards made a joke about how he’d love to see a debate on the media & polls between Dennis Shanahan & McMullan.
I just want to say well done to Bob McMullan for his performance on Agenda tonight (excluding the part when he bashed the Greens). He gave The Australian & the Canberra press gallery both barrels for the “Gillard must step in for Rudd” rubbish and the clearly biased reporting of the Newspoll results. He didn’t get personal with David Speers but he spelt it out to him that on these figures Labor would be returned and that (supposedly) no Opposition leader has won from where Abbott’s personal polling is currently.
It was a very effective performance and a shame we haven’t been seeing more of this in calling out the OO and the lemmings in the press. One of the two CPG journo’s on afterwards made a joke about how he’d love to see a debate on the media & polls between Dennis Shanahan & McMullan.
Here are a few of the quotes from that Bob McMullan interview in The Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/its-the-australian-weve-got-to-worry-about/story-e6frg6zo-1225882969129
Here are a few of the quotes from that Bob McMullan interview in The Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/its-the-australian-weve-got-to-worry-about/story-e6frg6zo-1225882969129
Seems to me that an Opposition leader like Abbott who is so bad at managing his personal budget he has to take a motgage out on his house for spending money, who then fails for months to declare it on the pecuniary interest register ain’t fit to handle the country’s money. No wonder he’s been keeping quiet.
Seems to me that an Opposition leader like Abbott who is so bad at managing his personal budget he has to take a motgage out on his house for spending money, who then fails for months to declare it on the pecuniary interest register ain’t fit to handle the country’s money. No wonder he’s been keeping quiet.
Shanahan wouldn’t have the moral courage to defend his lies in a public debate with McMullan on fre to air where we could all see it. Besides, McMullen would wipe the floor with him.
Shanahan wouldn’t have the moral courage to defend his lies in a public debate with McMullan on fre to air where we could all see it. Besides, McMullen would wipe the floor with him.
One of the things which bemuses me about the current situation is the extent to which popular concern about asylum seekers is said to be a factor hurting the Rudd Government in some quarters. None of the MSM commentary or reportage actually attempts to quantify the extent of this concern and its impact on voting intentions. Instead, what we are presented with is reportage of anecdotal claims by Labor backbenchers from places like western Sydney and WA that they are being groused at by voters in the issue.
If we assume, for the sake of the argument, that the issue has become a non-trivial problem for the government in terms of voting intentions, a couple of points arise.
(a) As incumbent, the Rudd government has been and arguably still is in a position to reshape the terms of public discourse around this issue in a way that it wasn’t when in opposition.
(b) It is only through attempting to reshape the terms of the discourse that the Rudd government can turn around the politics of the issue, as any attempt by Labor to chase after ill-informed public concern is bound to be outbid by some hare-brained and walnut-hearted ploy by the Coalition.
(c) Paul Syvret had some excellent things to say on this issue in yesterday’s Courier-Mail.
One of the things which bemuses me about the current situation is the extent to which popular concern about asylum seekers is said to be a factor hurting the Rudd Government in some quarters. None of the MSM commentary or reportage actually attempts to quantify the extent of this concern and its impact on voting intentions. Instead, what we are presented with is reportage of anecdotal claims by Labor backbenchers from places like western Sydney and WA that they are being groused at by voters in the issue.
If we assume, for the sake of the argument, that the issue has become a non-trivial problem for the government in terms of voting intentions, a couple of points arise.
(a) As incumbent, the Rudd government has been and arguably still is in a position to reshape the terms of public discourse around this issue in a way that it wasn’t when in opposition.
(b) It is only through attempting to reshape the terms of the discourse that the Rudd government can turn around the politics of the issue, as any attempt by Labor to chase after ill-informed public concern is bound to be outbid by some hare-brained and walnut-hearted ploy by the Coalition.
(c) Paul Syvret had some excellent things to say on this issue in yesterday’s Courier-Mail.
Paul @ 13: McMullen remains one of the best pollies we’ve ever had IMHO. And his clarity in debate and intelligence in policy will be greatly missed.
Paul @ 13: McMullen remains one of the best pollies we’ve ever had IMHO. And his clarity in debate and intelligence in policy will be greatly missed.
Further to my comment #14, if the reports about the sentiments of jittery Labor backbenchers from certain parts are at all accurate, it would seem that some of these people have no understanding of or commitment to some things that a political party in the social democratic and/or labour tradition ought to be on about, namely:
* being prepared to legislate in the public interest and to be resolute in doing so in the teeth of opposition from powerful and privileged sections of capital;
* promoting supportive, inclusive and compassionate policies towards disempowered and marginalised groups such as the mentally ill, asylum seekers, welfare recipients, etc.
* attempting to remedy ill-informed and prejudiced views held by sections of the public by enlightening and informing the holders of such views, rather than pandering to their prejudices.
Further to my comment #14, if the reports about the sentiments of jittery Labor backbenchers from certain parts are at all accurate, it would seem that some of these people have no understanding of or commitment to some things that a political party in the social democratic and/or labour tradition ought to be on about, namely:
* being prepared to legislate in the public interest and to be resolute in doing so in the teeth of opposition from powerful and privileged sections of capital;
* promoting supportive, inclusive and compassionate policies towards disempowered and marginalised groups such as the mentally ill, asylum seekers, welfare recipients, etc.
* attempting to remedy ill-informed and prejudiced views held by sections of the public by enlightening and informing the holders of such views, rather than pandering to their prejudices.
Agree Erik Sykes@15, but McMullan is a “leftie” from the Peoples Republic of Canberra. And generally speaking, the two (or sometimes three) ACT electorates have always been safe for the ALP, so that the national capital is treated like shite in the handing out of ministerial portfolios, not to mention any pork-barrelling..
His career within the party has been similar in many respects to that other sterling “leftie” John Faulkner, who has been bumped down to second position on the NSW senate ticket in the past to allow through some talentless hack from the right, and who has forever been denied a safe ALP seat in the lower house, where his talents might be better used on the reps front bench, and perhaps one day parlayed into leadership (given that Gillard has now made it to DPM from the left).
Agree Erik Sykes@15, but McMullan is a “leftie” from the Peoples Republic of Canberra. And generally speaking, the two (or sometimes three) ACT electorates have always been safe for the ALP, so that the national capital is treated like shite in the handing out of ministerial portfolios, not to mention any pork-barrelling..
His career within the party has been similar in many respects to that other sterling “leftie” John Faulkner, who has been bumped down to second position on the NSW senate ticket in the past to allow through some talentless hack from the right, and who has forever been denied a safe ALP seat in the lower house, where his talents might be better used on the reps front bench, and perhaps one day parlayed into leadership (given that Gillard has now made it to DPM from the left).
Tories raise VAT to %20, actually they were planning to do this since August ’09.
There’s something for Rudd and Swan to run with.
Tories raise VAT to %20, actually they were planning to do this since August ’09.
There’s something for Rudd and Swan to run with.
Grace, in NSW the ALP Senate ticket is Faulkner, Thistlethwaite, Hutchins. He hasn’t been bumped.
Grace, in NSW the ALP Senate ticket is Faulkner, Thistlethwaite, Hutchins. He hasn’t been bumped.
Liam@19, yes now, but in the past…
Liam@19, yes now, but in the past…
Yeah I was at the last State Conference before the 2004 Federal Election where the delegates had a Senate preselection ballot. Good times, it was an actual contest.
If I recall rightly there was more than one Right union that split from the Centre Unity ticket just for the Senate.
Yeah I was at the last State Conference before the 2004 Federal Election where the delegates had a Senate preselection ballot. Good times, it was an actual contest.
If I recall rightly there was more than one Right union that split from the Centre Unity ticket just for the Senate.
Jacques de Molay
“I just want to say well done to Bob McMullan for his performance on Agenda tonight (excluding the part when he bashed the Greens).”
by your definition McMullan only talks sense when he does not critise th Greens , rather selective and partisien
Paul Norton #14
There is no evidense of aleged Labor backbenchers saying what is claimedIs there community concern about increasing ilegal entry of boats , yes , and that is natural & normal
Jacques de Molay
“I just want to say well done to Bob McMullan for his performance on Agenda tonight (excluding the part when he bashed the Greens).”
by your definition McMullan only talks sense when he does not critise th Greens , rather selective and partisien
Paul Norton #14
There is no evidense of aleged Labor backbenchers saying what is claimedIs there community concern about increasing ilegal entry of boats , yes , and that is natural & normal
@22 – I’m not going to tolerate yet another round of pointless Labor/Greens pointscoring on this thread. Thanks.
@22 – I’m not going to tolerate yet another round of pointless Labor/Greens pointscoring on this thread. Thanks.