Both Kim and I have made the point in recent days that the polls are narrowing for Labor, and that the election is a real contest.
Now, news comes in of the latest Nielsen poll which has the Coalition ahead on the 2PP by 52-48.
Primaries are 45% to the Coalition, 36% to Labor, and 12% to The Greens.
Update: If replicated on August 21, and assuming a uniform swing, this poll would indicate the Coalition winning 86 seats and Labor 61.
Update: The Fairfax papers have now released the full poll details:
These numbers are similar to the levels of early June which precipitated the move against Kevin Rudd’s leadership.
The 58 per cent to 42 per cent lead that Ms Gillard enjoyed over Mr Abbott among women voters only a week ago has disappeared and the female vote for Labor and the Coalition is now statistically even at 49-51.
Ms Gillard’s approval rating slumped five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval rating rose six points to 39 per cent. Mr Abbott’s approval rose six points to 49 per cent and his disapproval fell six points to 45 per cent.
Ms Gillard’s 21-point lead as preferred prime minister was slashed by 13 points to 49-41. Her rating fell six points and Mr Abbott’s rose seven points.
Incidentally, you read about the poll in the blogosphere or the Twittersphere a couple of hours before Fairfax published.
More from Phillip Coorey:
Ms Gillard was accused of arguing against pension increases and paid parental leave. She denied both charges but the allegations were damaging. One MP said yesterday voters in his electorate were scared Ms Gillard would cut pensions if re-elected.
Although the samples are small, the poll shows that among voters aged over 55, support for Labor dived from 38 per cent to 31 per cent in a week and jumped from 49 per cent to 57 per cent for the Coalition.
Also since the last poll there have been the leaders’ debate, in which Mr Abbott performed better than expected, and Ms Gillard’s widely derided announcement of a citizens’ assembly to help develop a community consensus on an emissions trading scheme.
The poll finds that 60 per cent still support an emissions trading scheme while only 41 per cent support a citizens’ assembly.
It also finds that 79 per cent of voters are unlikely to change their views between now and election day. This is the level recorded at the same stage of the campaign before the 2004 and 2007 elections. It indicates 21 per cent of voters could still be influenced by events of the next three weeks.
Update: I’ve discussed the depth of Labor’s plight and how it may come back from here over at The Drumroll.
Update: Possum’s analysis.
Elsewhere: Tigtog on turning Labor’s fortunes around.
Now, let’s not get our knickers in a knot. Margin of error and all that. The trend and all that. Marginal seats are what count. A week is a long time in politics.
Now, where were those Cubans I had stashed??
Anywhere near 50/50 will be dangerous for Labor.
Would make a fantastic reality show behind the scenes in Labor if they lose. Even now it must be confusion. Seems the person who knows how to run a top notch campaign wasn’t held in the tent. As I said right from the start, apart from the transfer being stupid and unjustified, not including Rudd in the Cabinet was strategically stupid, especially when an early election was planned.
Reap what you sow.
Update: If replicated on August 21, and assuming a uniform swing, this poll would indicate the Coalition winning 86 seats and Labor 61.
51/49 in Labor’s favour is a losing margin on some scenarios of the distribution of the vote across seats.
This poll might be a bit overcooked in the Coalition’s favour, but even if that’s so, if you put it together with the Galaxy 50/50 (Labor down 2 on 2PP) and Morgan 53/47 (Labor down 2.5 on 2PP) polls from Wednesday night, it’s fairly safe to say the trend is away from Labor.
The Labor primary is the same in this Nielsen and Galaxy.
What’s surprising is the strength of the Coalition primary.
If the Coalition polls in the range 43-45% on primaries, Labor almost certainly loses the election.
Not counting chickens, just yet.
@5 – I wouldn’t be either, Razor, if I were you, but I said on the third day of the campaign that I thought Labor could well lose, and I’m not surprised by this result. There’s been a hell of a lot of complacency from Labor supporters, and indeed their lacklustre campaign seems premised entirely on complacency.
It’s designed to protect a lead, not take the offensive. They really need to switch tactics. If the idiots who want to proceed with the “theme of the day” stuff for the next two weeks remain in charge, then it doesn’t look good.
People like Swan and Smith need to put their hands on the wheel, and take the boy wonders like Arbib and Bitar out of the driver’s seat.
Mark, have I somehow misunderstood you or are you saying that Gillard really is just a girl puppet?
In concrete terms though Mark, what exactly would you do?
They can’t turn around and say they’ve changed their mind on climate change policy.
Their health policy is pretty much set with the Roxon/Rudd reorganisation of federal/state relations and the same goes for education.
It is too late to announce a different direction on tax/welfare reform.
And again, on population/asylum seekers the direction is pretty much set.
What is left?
If this poll is anything more than just a slightly overcooked reaction to the leaking, then Labor are in a lot of difficulty unless the marginals are looking better than the aggregate polling.
They have already determined their policy course (except at the fringes) and don’t have the time or money to change it.
That leaves changing the messaging/campaign style. But that won’t be straightforward either. Without different policies to sell, there is only so much benefit to be gained from different rhetoric. And with this poll and the earlier leaking, getting even normal messages into the public domain will be very difficult.
Put in another way, what the $uck is Swan going to be able to do to change the fundamentals of the current campaign. He is deeply implicated in all of Labor’s policy decisions. He can hardly take over campaigning from Gillard. So, concretely, how exactly are you expecting him to change the campaign strategy?
@7 – No, I’m not saying that, Dr Cat. It’s never the case that the Leader works out the day to day strategy for the campaign, or what emphases should be placed on what issues through advertising and message and theme development, etc. It wasn’t Rudd doing that in ’07. He didn’t come up with Kevin07, for instance, or the slogans and key phrases.
The last two times Leaders tried to run the campaign themselves were 96 with Keating and 04 with Latham, which was problematic in both cases.
It’s not necessarily the case the Leader is the best person to judge questions of electoral strategy and tactics, though obviously they have input. Swan and Smith have both run campaigns at state and federal level, and I’d back their judgement any day against that of Bitar, Arbib and that crew.
So I’m not making that implication about JG at all.
@8 and 9 – Buggered if I know, LO, to be honest. I also fear that it’s too far gone for a real shift in strategy and tactics.
I’ll have to think more on it.
Rate rise on Tuesday?????
I made a mistake with the ALP primary vote, it is 36%, not 38%.
The silver lining is that Arbib and Bitar will resign from the Party after the defeat, being men of honour.
The mistakes have already been made and most of it cannot be undone now. Hopefully Labor will learn from the outburst of panic over the last five weeks and weed out some of the dullards that are pulling the strings in the party. It could be turned around but it is hard to see how they are going to do it.
@13 – Thanks for that, GhostWhoVotes. I’ve updated the post.
That really is a worrying primary gap!
Oh, okay. The sentence reads a bit ambiguously without knowing the inside stories, and I don’t know enough about the likes of Arbib and Bitar to quite understand how/why they seem so widely hated, though I’m willing to take people’s word for it. I’ve also been reading up a bit on Arbib and it does sound as though he is Araldited to the driver’s seat and they’ll have to prise the wheel from his cold, dead hands.
@17 – Thanks for pointing out the ambiguity.
Maybe I should do a post some time on how election campaigns work from the inside? The role of the Leader during the campaign itself really is mostly communication, not strategy. Of course, JG will have made the policy decisions which set up the campaign, and participated in and led the decision making on its themes and approach. But once the starters gun is fired, any leader really has to spend most of their time on actually campaigning, not setting strategy and tactics. Having said all that, this is the time it would be appropriate for her to intervene and make some changes, including the sorts of personnel changes I’m suggesting.
Swan, btw, pretty much took over the 2009 Queensland campaign from the late 20 something Peel Street boys who were running the shop. He and Smith are both former State Secretaries and Campaign Directors, and know something about their pace, the swings and roundabouts, and how to respond, etc. The Hawker Britton/Arbib/Bitar school of campaigning seems to be robotic in its inability to respond to anything that goes awry, and to misfire more often that not.
You’re right about Arbib. There’s one line of thought that he likes lots of publicity about his role as an expert in the dark arts, etc. Even though the story in the SMH today had lots of disavowals from him, it read like he’d planted it!
Oh, and if you want a sample of the Hawker Britton style of campaign that Bitar and Arbib have internalised, have a look at the SA one earlier in the year!
(Including the deceptive practices)
Every election is a contest. This one more than ever. There’s no incumbent.
@16
Labor can’t close a primary gap like that in three weeks. Mark Latham lost his election with a primary on 37%. I can’t bear to watch. You were right about that change of leadership being an act of monumental stupidity. This is going to become a textbook case study on how not to do politics. I just knew Tony Abbott’s expression when PM Julia Gillard held her first parliament was actually the kind of gloating fascination that confirmed Christians have at watching the damned go to Hell.
I wasn’t paying that much attention to the SA campaign, to tell you the truth. I mean, Writers’ Week was on!
Actually I rarely pay much attention to the campaigns, because they are usually such nauseating cons.
(Although I did notice that whoever was behind this year’s SA Labor campaign clearly couldn’t find a way to defuse the loose blonde cannon.)
Ssshhh Megan @ 21 … we don’t talk about that here. Not allowed.
@21 – Well, it’s not necessarily the case that there is a 9 point primary gap. Galaxy has a 6 point spread. But that’s bad enough, and a Labor primary in the range of 35-38% is scary territory.
@22 – Heh! Yeah, I bet there was lots of ‘overshadowing’ going on for Mike Rann too!
‘Arbib and Bitar will resign from the Party after the defeat, being men of honour.’
Arbib – honour? Never thought I would see those two words in the same sentence.
People who have genuine behind the scenes power usually remain invisible and seem never to have to exercise it to get what the want. The only time I saw Arbib being interviewed I was less than impressed and find it hard to believe that he actually wields any power.
If Labor lose it factional Labor will become like the era of the ‘warring states period’. ????
@21 –
Megan, I just went and checked the 2001 and 2004 results. The primary spread in Galaxy has the ALP in Beazley territory, and Nielsen in Latham territory.
Stephen Smith finally put out a piece of literature today that had an ALP Logo on it – postal vote bumf – first party branded info in the last 3 months I have seen through the letter box from him. He certainly should be on the campaign team seeing he is so good at waving the flag.
Oh, I forgot to ask –
How bad do the polls need to get before Shorten/Combet knife La Guillotine?
There is a very recent precedent, y’know.
Update: The Fairfax papers have now released the full poll details:
Incidentally, you read about the poll in the blogosphere or the Twittersphere a couple of hours before Fairfax published.
More from Phillip Coorey:
Such bad luck Kevin can’t get out on the campaign trail with La Guillotine in the next few days.
Razor, isn’t it past your bedtime?
Pav – thank you for your concern for my personal well-being but I am doinf fine.
How about you?
This is simply heartbreaking. These guys may not have been a great government because they simply couldn’t hold a narrative and sell what they have done. But most of the policy directions have been good. For 12 months I’ve been saying that a simple chart could have been used everyday about the insulation and schools programs – just compare the unemploymenr rates of other OECD nations with australia and say each percentage point is 100,000 jobs.
The failure of rudd, wong, combet, garrett to explain global warming and the consequences of not acting (on a simple risk minimisation strategy) but instead seeking to use the CPRS as a wedge for the liberals (which was excellent tactically but blindingly stupid strategically) has stuffed their position on this – and they won’t get that back.
Then we have a bunch of right wingers who allegedly know so much more about what the australian electorate want make th government jump to the right across a range of policies. Labor cannot beat abbott to the right – and the result is labor is bleeding votes on its left and to the right.
And the next generation of leaders are frankly appalling – unless combet gets it the right is full of self-obsessed nuffies.
This election could still be won by Labor (and fwiw I still think they will win) but if there is a major narrowing of support you do wonder whether what could be achieved by aq diminished labor, diminished PM and a series of State Governments which are likely to fall over.
What a waste – they had the chance to really reshape australia with state governments all of the same political persuasion and they have just frittered it all away.
Update: I’ve discussed the depth of Labor’s plight and how it may come back from here over at The Drumroll.
Essendon beat St. Kilda
“The Australian” is beating the ALP.
Betting market still expects an ALP win
Two points:
1. the ALP really screwed the pooch when they dumped Rudd. That much is now clear to anyone.
2. Worse, Gillard made the same mistake as Rudd in talking climate, but doing nothing. However, I agree eith LO – its too late now to change course on that issue. They have to survive.
3. The good news: Its totally rescueable, but they have to sack their idiot campaign team, which seems convinced this is a state election, and run on the GFC saviour theme.
Nakedly. Openly. Now.
If they do that they will win.
Wake up ALP – your NSW campaign strategists are your worst enemy. Take it off auto-pilot now. Hands on the wheel, now.
Correction: three points.
I think they now have no choice other than to embrace Kevin and Kevin-ism, Lefty E:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/drumroll/2010/07/nielsen-poll-shows-labor-in-latham-territory.html#tp
I hope they’re sending him flowers at the Mater Private tonight!
You guys are getting so uptight over one poll.
Agree Mark: Worst. Mistake. Ever.
Come back Kev, etc!
Agree with your Drum piece. This comment
“That involves reminding electors of Kevin Rudd’s actions during the GFC…”.
Is precisley what ive been sayng for the last 3 days all over Ozblogistan.
What we have instead is a non-narrative from a non-incumbent govt, emphasising state govt type issues, orchestrated by the truly hopeless NSW backstabbers Bitar and Arbib.
Its a woeful combination, and its not working. Wake up ALP!
Believe it or not, Im not uptight Razor.
a. I think the ALP will win if they do the OBVIOUS, and re-embrace the legacy of the last 3 years – which no one but ALP insiders and media jockeys ever had a problem with.
b. I’m sorry ALP – I cant work out why progressive people would even care. You’re such a let down. Give us something out here – something to get passionate about. Chuck us a bone. And dont say “or you’ll get Abbott” – youll still get my pref, but its clearly just not enough for people at large. It makes them want to punish you for being so lightweight, tricky and cynical.
Just to be irritating, I’m going to link once again to this (extract of a) 2009 study showing that polls conducted during election campaigns are nearly always wrong (the most accurate predicter of the final result is the polling conducted shortly before the campaign period starts). Well, to be irritating, and in the faint hope that a more widespread recognition that campaign periods may very well be “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” might lead to more sensible election analysis and commentary than the horse race shite we have to put up with now.
Note the study’s findings accurately predicted the evaporation of Cleggmania in the last British election.
@razor re betting markets – libs have gone from over $4 to $2.80 in space of four weeks…
Mark, it seems to me that it can’t get any worse. I think you have to credit Abbott for being a personality witout being the story. Labor have made life hard by strategic failure. I agree with LO on that. I was hopeful (perhaps without a basis as you said) Gillard would prove a more consistent PM than Rudd but if anything she has simply confirmed it is a wider brand failure. Having said that, I still expect labor to win and the next couple of weeks will make a comparator of the parties.
It’s the canning of the ETS evertime that does Labor in. Rudd would never have been rolled but for the ETS. I think the RSPT was a second priority and ETS was key. They went the other way. It might be their tombstone!
Mark
I sort of agree with your piece over at drumroll, but again, I repeat, it is one thing to say that Labor needs a narrative but another to actually come up with a new narrative at this late stage. Rhetoric won’t be enough. The GFC is yesterday’s news to many people in large part because things never got that bad. The line that things could have been far worse if the government had followed the opposition’s prescription, while true, is hard to run on because it is too abstract. Think of the government’s problem as one of ‘what have you done for me lately’! In just about every policy area the government are locked in or can’t change course without losing even more credibility. I’m not sure they have any ideas left, except to hope that Nielsen is roguish, Abbott slips up, the internal leaks stop or that people won’t be able to bring themselves to vote for the coalition on the actual day. Unfortunately, I don’t think most people fear Abbott that much, especially given that he was a long-standing member of a government that many people (not most of us of course) think was pretty good.
Right now, things are probably running 50-50. If things don’t change over the next week or so, it might be worth writing some posts about what the political landscape might look like if the Coalition do win.
This is a standard law and order campaign from NSW Labor, Lefty E. Tuff on kiddie porn,tuff on refugees, tuff on teachers and tuff on knives. NSW Labor has given us nothing for the the last 15 years and I’ll be buggered if I’m going to vote for them.
I watched Chris Uhlmann on ABC 24 last night, and was disgusted with the way the Coalition was treated in a ‘spoof’ on mental health. I would say that it was in poor taste, and only goes to show the hubris of ABC as an arm of the ALP. And Crabb, what was she thinking, speaking as she did to Barnaby Joyce? The ABC 24 are making Labor’s job harder, not easier.
I’m with Lefty E. There’s quite a lot to sell even before we get to the flaws in Abbott/Liberals.
Needs to be a lot more mention of weathering the GFC, especially in comparison with the rest of the world.
This debt myth should be buried. As a portion of GDP it is tiny and way below the rest of the world.
Interest rates are lower, as is unemployment rate.
BER is a success and needs to be trumpeted.
Health and hospitals, the weak link in coalition performance needs a mention.
At last NBN gets a mention, although largely buried in stories on what Latham thinks about Rudd. This needs to be hammered home as a vital difference for the future.
Plenty to work on both on record and on the future.
The other side? Costings? Sacrifices? Workchoices.
Substance ought to trump superficiality but it needs to be entioned a bit more.
Nice try Don, but Labor have actually been doing ALL of those things. Most people just don’t get how difficult it is to control/change the messaging when the media want to run with a particular line. The issue is not whether objectively Labor have a message to sell. They do, though it isn’t as strong as it could have been. The issue is whether they can get that message out over the din created by the leaks, or whether voters will even buy it if when they do hear it. Just because you aren’t reading it in the newspaper or seeing it reported on the television doesn’t mean Labor haven’t been trying to get those messages out to the public through press releases, radio spots, interviews, direct mail, etc. Politics is much harder than most people think.
I’m not saying that Labor hasn’t done plenty wrong. They have. But if you think this ship can be righted quickly and easily then you are kidding yourself.
Polls are crap, fodder for the weekend broadsheets and Insiders, look at the Centrebet figures for swing seats.
http://www.centrebet.com/2010/07/28/federal-election-2010
Overall, $1.27 ALP – $3.60 Coalition.
BTW Larvatus Prodeo now resolves to 74.207.253.59
Well. I have gone through a whole range of emotions in response to the latest poll. Obviously the first is a deep distress at the thought of the consequences of an Abbott Govt; cuts to public and community services, ignore global warming (except as a justification for nuclear power plants),no improved broadband, no attempt at improving infrastructure, neglect education and health, more punishment for the unemployed.
Then I had a Winston Smith moment and decided that given there was no hope, and my ultimate fear was anbout to be realised, I embraced Tony Abbott and all he stood for. After a few seconds, that didn’t work either.
So all I am left with is the pathetic hope that after this debacle the ALP will go cold turkey on spin. That they will reject the Liberal lite strategy once and for all.That they will recall the daily legacies of Gough’s bravery in “crash through or crash” in his brief but lasting impact on Australian life.
The right-wing media is always out to destroy the left- that will never change.The ALP were elected with a strong mandate for climate change action. Imagine if they had been brave, gone for a carbon tax, stared down the Libs into a double dissolution, they’d have probably won & got it though and then got a duibbing at the next election over screams about affordability and the end of capitalism . At least they wouldve achieved something lasting and worthwhile.
This is an outlier poll, pure and simple. The stable media environment doesn’t exist where a party lead by Speedos can maintain this until August, 21.
I don’t think we’re seeing an historic defeat in the cards here, no matter the desire to explain the reasons for Labor ‘throwing away an election’.
(I’d also go as far as to say the likes of Antony Green are wrong about the ability of the Liberals to win an election with 50/50 2PP. I think they’d need over 51+ in order to cancel out the benefits of incumbency the Mike Kellys and the Maxine McKews have. 1998, anyone?)
Read the above thus:
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Coaltion’s numbers come under attack from people who understand budget mathematics. I actually expect that to happen–there’s some serious magical realism at work in those plans of theirs.
‘Eradicate the waste’ is their catch-all explanation for how they will bring down a surplus and still be able to pay for the big government conservatism without a new mining tax/rise in the GST. No way Abbott gets through the next three weeks unchallenged on that assumption.
I have to say I too am pretty sanguine when compared to seemingly manic Abbott boosters. (Cuban cigars? Seriously? Everything written on these comments sections is permanent, y’know. That’ll come back the day after the election.)
My impression is that Abbott is campaigning better than expected. Everywhere he goes there are action shots of him interacting with the people where he looks human.
Gillard communicates great warmth personally, but looks a bit plastic on TV except when roused to anger or in other extreme situations, which can’t happen every day.
Money-wise the big dollars from the ALP go to finishing the stimulus package, the $5 billion Rudd stumped up to get his health strategy established and the NBN which is a major piece of nation-building and to reap it’s electoral value needs to be seen as such. There isn’t space for much else.
The COALition are claiming $25 billion of recurrent savings and with that they can trump anything Gillard announces, plus add to their action man strategy with announcements she can’t match.
Rudd would have gone late and with a better climate strategy by a country mile. Also the NBN would have been out there being built and there would have been more time to publicise its benefits.
The mining tax thing would have been a running sore and I doubt Rudd could have achieved any settlement at all.
Laura Tingle has been implying the Coalition’s numbers are seriously shonky, but since the last Oakes intervention she’s suggesting that Labor won’t get the message through because of the Rudd/leaking static.
I’m expecting Oakes to crap all over the Labor launch. If he does people will start to twig as to what’s really going on, but they’ll vote for Abbott anyway just in case.
Lenore Taylor and David Uren in their book Shitstorm say the the GFC really hijacked the Rudd government agenda for 18 months in a 3-year electoral cycle and left Rudd seriously on the defensive about government competence from Feb 2010, whereas Stiglitz pointed out that the response was probably the best-designed and most successful in the world which saved the massive waste that would have accrued though a recession, unemployment and business failure.
Rudd07 always had what was realistically a two-tern agenda. Taylor and Uren say that the GFC defined the first term and the second term also.
So a new narrative, if authentic, has to pick that up. But unfortunately they are playing to an electorate for whom the GFC didn’t happen.
It will be a miracle if Labor wins from here. Very depressing.
The only real leaking taking place is the MSM pissing all over Labor, shades of Whitlam’s assasination the Libs are coming and objectivity in journalism has WENT Oakes is the new Khemlani, days of future past.PATHETIC!
Gillard can turn it around. Talking about real issues won’t hurt. Avoiding repetitious and empty cliches wouldn’t be a bad thing either.
Rather than lashings of hand wringing, not to mention lashings of schadenfreude, it would be more useful if we were to discuss what each of us might do to try and prevent a Coalition win.
Volunteering to help ANY non-Coalition candidate’s campaign perhaps? Letterboxing? Handing out on the 21st? Ringing in on callback sessions on any radio program you can bring yourself to listen to? Writing letters to the ed? Running up an A4 or A5 newsletter for your local area, pointing out what the ALP’s Economic Stimulus has paid for, etc etc and letterboxing in your area? Ideas?
Rudd would have won this easily yet the media and Tony managed to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes.
Good work.
Razor…you need to dial that smugness up to 11. It’s annoying the crap out of me and that tells me you’re doing the right thing.
For the rest of us…discuss. ALP dead for the next 20 years or just dead full stop? We might be the first democracy in the world with only a single major party.
Bernice…it’s hopeless. A mate of mine was telling me how Rudd was directly responsible for people dying in roofs. I tried to point out that less people died in that occupation during the stimulus and he called me a liar and demanded I apologise. Could not believe I would be so disrespectful. His latest jibe to me was “at least Tony never killed anyone.”
The media has succeeded beyond it’s wildest dreams helped by ALP incompetance.
And now we all get to pay the price.
The really positive thing for us about the Coalition winning is that for now there will be no carbon tax.It will drive most of into absolute poverty.Like most taxes,once it is in, our drug addict lords cannot be weaned off it.Tony Abbott will never totally rule it out.Remember never ever GST?
The other positive thing is that the Coalition will cut back on useless spending and organise things a bit better.
We need new Govt owned bank to generate our own currency once again.Keating shuld never have sold the Commonwealth Bank.With increases in GDP and population we are letting foreign banks own our productivity and loan it back to us as debt.
These foreign banks also create too much money causing inflation which depreciates our currency by 41% every 10 years.It is theft by stealth.
Reading Mike Carlton in today’s SMH I suspect he is right about the sullen, spiteful lower middle class types who deposed Keating for the white picket fence insularity offered by Howard.
But there’s just not enough of them today, perhaps only the readership of The Australian.
People want that broadband network, and better schools.
Rudd beat Howard partly because we are heartily sick of small target government. Latham initially surged ahead of Howard because he actually looked like doing something. The start of the Rudd slide was dropping ETS without a credible alternative.
So what does Julie do – the clayton’s climate policy to end all clayton’s policies. Big speech about balancing the budget instead of putting the emphasis on doing things people think important.
Julie needs to take the risk of actually promisinf to do something in the next term of governement.
What I want to hear is: “By the end of 2012 a Labor goverment will…….” With some serious climate action as part of this promise.
There was an economic assessment of state by state performance about a week ago that showed Qld the worst performer, next to NSW. In Qld it seems to be felt in retail, in construction, in anything to do with home improvement. Tourism has been problematic for some time.
I’ve heard people on local radio saying virtually that Rudd personally plundered their bank account.
It’s often who you can blame as a scapegoat and Rudd’s head if quite visible.
There’s another leak, this time about Gillard not attending national security meetings and sending a staffer in her place.
Someone from within is determined to destroy the Government, and they will almost certainly succeed. No party can possibly survive this treachery, on an ongoing basis, in an election campaign.
I like
CMMC’s take,echoed by John D, but most of the other posts are echoing my reactions, so ’nuff sed for now.
As Bernice said, we are going to have to sharpen up if we don’t want the Inquisition Abbott running/rooning our lives.
Abbott will make even that barbarian Cameron who now runs Britain under an astringent Thatcherist ideology and policy bag, look humane and civilised by comparison.
I don’t think blaming the media or the spiteful middle class is going to be helpful for Labor. The fact is most of the damage has been self inflicted. This has been in the making for six weeks now and the fact the so called “Labor hardheads” did not see it coming tells you all you need to know about their political judgement.
Ahh, but Brian, that’s why the pensioners hide their money under the bed, in case the socialists come to take it away from them!
Sam this is pomo post industrial politics, with an opaque future indiscernible thru all the fog.
We do in this country have some convention about parties releasing professionally prepared costings before polling day, correct?
I think I see where the narrative could be heading. There’s only so much financial benefit they can get from scrapping the broadband network and such—there will be realworld economists who will tell us that a lot of the Coalitions’s savings will reduce productivity, reduce tax revenue.
Yet the Libs reckon they can reduce corporate tax by more than Labor will, all the while rolling out campaign pledges for new programmes that always seem to be more expensive than the government’s equivalent pledges. With only one Great Big Tax On Everything to be levied to pay for a single measly new policy.
I think there is a basic level of economic management competence that Abbott and Hockey can’t measure up to, and the polls from earlier in this year support my assertion. They were challenged by Labor a couple of times on the question of ‘better managers’. Yet I don’t think Liberals can do well in elections if they can’t own the whole image of being better managers than the government, and own said image bigtime.
Liberal dominance on the issue of economics is a hollow man ripe to be smacked down.
You heard it here first: if Labor is returned at the election the commentariat will declare the turning point was the inability of Abbott and Hockey to get across to the voters that they are the profoundly serious heirs of those greatest ever guardians of our properity, John’n'Pete.
I don’t know quite what form a Liberal Pocket Book Nerve collapse would take, but it’s the way Gillard wins… if she is to win.
Brian, Stiglitz obviously isn’t sophisticated enough to realise Labor could do with a spell in Opposition to get its head together.:=)
LEFTY E: While I think dumping Rudd was a dumb idea (because the dynamic would have changed massively in his favour once an election was called and he could talk about the GFC, etc, and people would actually listen), I think that Julia has made some terrible terrible blunders since.
The first and biggest mistake was caving in to the miners. They offered her the perfect chance to sell herself to the electorate as a woman of conviction and guts and she totally squibbed it. She’d be in great shape if she was kicking around the miners right now (but she’s removed them as a potential target).
The next biggest catastrophe was the ETS. Clearly she, and the dumbies behind her, were not able to intellectually disassociate themselves from their previous position. Indeed, they still feel the need to justify it. Unbelievable they learnt nothing from that whole sorry exercise.
So where does she go now? I think people on this blog are right, that she has to re-embrace kevvie. Maybe she should offer to make him TREASURER????
But my biggest message to the Too-Clever-By-Half-Party is to stop being cynical about the electorate. They can pick it up and have responded accordingly.
I don’t think the Libs are that bothered by the fact that their so-called savings are nonsense. If they win, they’ll plan to do a Hawke/Cameron and say “OMG! It’s much worse than we expected – sorry, there go our promises”. Cameron proves you can get away with it even if not true. Then embark on a savage round of budget cuts.
The issue is whether they can survive independent scrutiny of their costings. But obviously they’re going to leave that to the very last minute, and hope no one notices too much.
LO is right about the difficulty of getting a message out in the face of the media narrative. I’ve been watching Gillard’s press conferences on ABC News 24. No matter what she talks about (ie yesterday on NBN), pretty much every question is “how about the leaks?”… That then translates to the way the campaign is framed on the nightly commercial news.
The thought of Abbott and Howard gloating on election night is unbearable.
sam @ 66, exactly. And Australia may very well likely have to suffer a cruel Fascist government for the next 20 years, while the world goes to hell in a handbasket.
“The GFC is yesterday’s news to many people in large part because things never got that bad.”
I can’t agree with this LO. Its the ALPs best shot.
Another leak against Gillard. I spose Kev did it under the influence of anesthetic?
So, serial anti-Rudd AND anti-Gillard leaks: anyone know anyone in the ALP who wants Abbott to win, so they becomes opposition leader, and PM in 2013?
Just a theory.
This govt has NSW-itis, and Im starting to fear for the first time it may be terminal if changes are not made to the campaign. How they are doing so badly against a team of nutters is a testimony to poor strategy, changes horses, and bad campaign tactic.
So:
1 everyone calm down
2 Take it out of the hands of Bitar and Arbib
3 run on the GFC, record employment growth, recession avoided, and
4 the ALP will win.
“I think that Julia has made some terrible terrible blunders since.” Totally agree Mike.
MARK – It’s obvious that Julia is “having trouble getting her message out” (where have we heard that before). But I note that Peter Brent in particular said that she should have waited until October to bed down her Prime Ministership and get a few runs under her belt. But that was never the plan. It was a rush to the polls while she was having her honeymoon. But as anyone knows, these days politicians have very short honeymoons. I think the media in this country are total crap, best avoided. But what did labor expect?
The media are asking about the leaks because the leaks exist. And they are right to ask about them. Everything points to the Labor Party, if somehow re-elected, descending into civil war and taking the governance of the country down with it.
Fanciful, ridiculous? Look at NSW. And it’s the same people, not merely the same kind of people, but the same people, who have brought down NSW who are behind Gillard (while probably also trying to assassinate her, as they did Iemma and Rees).
I don’t think caving in to the miners was the beginning of the end. This was a shit sandwich she inherited from Rudd and caving probably had public support.
It was the climate change citizen’s assembly, perhaps the most stupid idea in the last 30 years of federal politics, that did it.
anyone know anyone in the ALP who wants Abbott to win, so they becomes opposition leader, and PM in 2013?
I can think of someone …
I think that when the average swinging voter stands in the polling book he asks two questions:
1. How have I fared during the last 3 years? Am I still employed? Am I wealthier?
2. If I vote for the govt, will that continue for the next three years?
Somehow, Julia has to answer question 2. Dunno how she does. I was being flippant, but maybe she does have to bring Kevvie in as treasurer? Is it too late to shoot Swan?
@75 – Yes, MIKE, I agree it should have been anticipated. I’ve said that before. I’m not sure anyone saw the sort of leaks we’re getting coming, though, just perhaps grumbling and backgrounding.
SAM – I’m really coming to the view that if Julia lost it wouldn’t be too bad for progressives. The party has run out of steam and won’t do anything big for the next three years anyway. Give tone the controls and come back in 3 years time more focused on core values.
She didn’t inherit the “shit sandwich” from Rudd, she took it. She is no victim.
When the government started to struggle in the polls they needed to roll their sleeves up and do what other first term governments had done in the past, and that is to stay disciplined and play the incumbecy card for all it is worth. Instead what was put on public display was an ill diciplined and politicaly niave government who thought they could turn it all around through a lazy quick fix. Four weeks of Julia aome more lazy policy quick fixes punctuated by a few leaks and here we are today.
Its not looking good. My 8 point plan on what Labor can do:
1. Resurrect Rudd and get him back in the tent and on message for the campaign.
2. Get Julia off the Mogadon.
3. Stop saying “moving forwards”
4. Commit to an interim carbon tax and scrap the Citizens Assembly
5. Protect remaining native forests for their biodiversity and carbon stores.
6. Shut up Penny Wong; her failure on climate change is a serious legacy, she won’t accept responsibility for this, and she can never answer a question.
7. As per Lefty E, sack their idiot campaign team.
8. Remember the rest of Australia outside marginal seats. Dog whistling in marginals affects wider community opinions which then in turn negatively impacts sentiments in the marginals seats.
Easy peasy, if they wake up. This poll may do it.
It will be interesting if it comes down to the wire and the Greens win one or two lower house seats – there could then be a Labor-Greens coalition government. Or much less likely – a Labor-Liberal-National coalition government.
Maybe, just maybe, it was Abbott’s announcement on immigration that’s resulted in this surge? Whatever the reality, he appeared to be putting hard numbers on immigration levels and population targets, whereas Gillard has been waffling.
One thing Labor have to start doing is going on the attack. No more of this sitting back hoping some hack journo will apply the blowtorch to Abbott & the rest of them. Abbott is banging on about debt & deficits (relatively speaking we’re in great shape) yet this supposed fiscal conservative has run up a stack of promises costing about double what Labor have pledged so far with more to come.
Now while I’m certain the bubble will burst for the Libs and in a big way an Albo or a Swanny need to be highlighting this rubbish 24/7. One thing Labor should take from Abbott is his ability to repeat his messages over and over again “and four, we’ll stop the boats” etc.
It doesn’t look to good for Labor, but you just need to recall how things were going for Abbott at the start – he managed to appoint Barnaby as finance spokesman and every time he opened his mouth it was a disaster. Barnaby got the sack and Tony was whisked off to the back room for some elocution and deportment lessons and instructed to keep his mouth shut as much as possible. We hardly saw him for the next month or two.
Labor aided Tony’s disappearing act with a series of own-goals.
The Libs need this to continue as a few weeks of scrutiny on Abbott and his underwhelming front bench (Robb is hardly more convincing than Joyce in finance) would sink them.
Update: Possum’s analysis.
I think this otherwise-keen-on-Gillard woman in the marginal seat of McEwen captures the problem well:
”I want her to take risks and stop being careful and being politically correct,” she says. ”There’s too much caution. It’s all empty, it’s all rhetoric. I think that’s how a lot of people feel now.”
The pitch isnt taking spin, folks.
Bring on the pace bowlers. GFC yorkers, NBN toe-crushers, stop bowling wides he can leave, get Abbott playing at the ball.
He’ll nick it.
1. Would it be fair to assume that this Labor campaign was planned months ago – well before 24 June?
2. I regret my prediction that if Essendon beat St Kilda last night, that this was an omen for a forthcoming plague of an Abbottocracy to descend upon us!
3. Even if there were to be an Abbottocracy, it could be another one-term wonder, given who they have on their side. And compared to the Labor talent bank on the other side.
4. How seriously important will it be for Swannie to obsolutely slice and dice Hockey in their coming ‘debate’?
Here’s that link: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/marginal-voters-hold-the-key-yet-are-disillusioned-as-ever-20100730-10zwu.html#poll
As has been said before, it’s simply NSW writ large. These people have learnt nothing and the quick fix, flying under the radar, do nothing strategy simply will not work.
This poll might be a good thing if it forces Labor to dump the morons who have got us into this mess, and start afresh with a decent campaign.
I think as the polls look better for Abbott the protest vote will reduce quite a bit. Lots of people upset with the ALP but don’t actually want the libs to get in. So close polls like this are I don’t think too bad for the ALP.
Re: nbn I wonder if the alp would be better off selling it as only costing about 3-4k per household rather than 40 billion. Sounds a lot more reasonable. And if they’d just drop the compulsory part of the filter they’d be very popular among IT aware people.
Nielsen indicates that the gender gap has more than evaporated. It has reversed.
The ALP is toast.
Upthread it was suggested that the gender gap evaporated when the announcement of the citizen committee was made, showing the electorate that stalling on climate change was still the status quo. Without wanting to buy entirely into a possible correlation-causation fallacy, it strikes me as a definite probability – stalling on climate change saw off Turnbull and Rudd, after all.
When are the “decision-makers” going to realise that people really want real action on this issue?
tell the good news on the GFC, for Gawd’s sake.
What can POSSIBLY be the argument against doing so?
Even Chief Leakee Oakes thinks its the go. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/pm-must-stress-economic-health/story-e6frfhqf-1225899204983
Well done Craig Emerson…good to see a Laborite fired up on Sky News…the interviewer tried to keep bringing up the leaks crap but he managed to outwit her.
N’
Feel a bit better via contributions of NickWS and CMMC. And what Lefty E’s saying.
As to changing the momentum, a useful thing if only for the effect on morale of the troops, well, that has also been hinted at here. Get rid of Arbib and Sitar and make a big fuss of getting Swan and Stephen Smith to direct the campaign.
In 74, Gough’s campaign seemed to be wobbling when very publicly they called back Mick Young to take charge. That got a few headlines ‘Young to the Rescue’, ‘It’s Time Team Back Together’ etc. Don’t know much direct impact Mick had, but things got better from there and Gough won.
Swan can be punchy at times and might be useful for ramping up a bit of aggro.
For gawd’s sake stop bellyaching about the change of leadership. I was pissed too initially but I’ve moved on:
Never stop, never stop fighting till the fight is done.
(The Untouchables)
I say to Laborites:
Go after Abbott’s weaknesses…there are plenty of them. Promote stimulus as others say. Remind people of Howard government crap & waste & war & community dividing (why they voted them out in the first place…remind them Abbott was one of the inner-circle…part of the OLD GUARD).
see here:
So Abbot’s Won, Labor’s Dead, Howard Era Was Great
http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2010/07/31/so-abbots-won-labors-dead-howard-era-was-great/
Go to the bloody schools that are happy w/ the BER & computers in schools program. Advertise/promote the positives courageously.
Take the fight to the Coalition. No more pussyfooting around. Get FEISTY…FIRED UP.
And dominate media coverage.
I heard all the same negabore, negative BS during the QLD election…then Anna Bligh got out there full-bore…got fired up.
I predicted we’d get a late Green/Labor surge…and we did.
There will be no WAKE. Just a VICTORY. Believe it.
Confidence. Clear-minded, absolute confidence. No more doubts.
Go for it!
N’
Tigtog @95 – well in Turnbull’s case it was *not* stalling on climate change which got him rolled. In retrospect I wonder if Rudd had not tried to make so much political capital out of turmoil in the liberal party over climate change when Turnbull was in charge then the legislation would have passed. Rudd would have been seen to have done something substantial on climate change and still be around…..
DON – the only think Swan doesn’t punch is mining companies.
Possum notes that the change in gender voting intentions maybe linked to the leak about Gillard and maternity leave. Whoever is leaking is very precise in what they choose to plant.
Fair point.
Any reason why my post is in moderation?
N’
We have words that trigger the filter, N. Perhaps next time you could ask less passive-aggressively?
Agree Don – Swan is the key continuity between the two govts – unlike JG, he’s relatively unmarked by the coup – which was now, undeniably, a monstrous strategic blunder.
He’s got to sell the GFC averted message. Get him on point, Send Bitar and Arbib back where they belong: shovelling shit sheets at Sussex St against second string NSW ALP Premiers.
They’re way out of their league, with the other nobodies like Feeney: bring on the gun players.
Rudd didnt get elected listening to those losers.
Im not saying marginalise JG – but she seems stuck in the headlights. Get her on other messages, she cant sell the GFC tune as she was too linked to the coup against Rudd. And its clearly Rudd govt legacy.
was depressed once I read the polls. Went away and buried myself in the 18C. depressed when I came back and read all this stuff, but worse. Still, we gotta fight back, like Nasking says.
Gillard was certainly fighting back in the press conference she just gave in Perth – talking up the GFC, and ensuring that every answer to a question on leaks and polls gave her the chance to draw a contrast with Abbott and talking about economic management.
@102 –
That’s the point Kim and I have been making for some days, Fine.
If the Government loses, Gillard will be the shortest serving PM in history (not counting the stop-gaps Page, Fadden, Forde and McEwen).
It couldn’t have anything to do with the *gasp* migration issue could it?
You know, things like unaffordable housing, congested trains and roads matter to people?
Yet there are here who think that anyone who wants lower migration is either a racist, ignorant, or just hasn’t yet go it – it’s not migration that’s the problem, it’s the lack of infrastructure investment by governments! And higher migration is good, I tell you, it’s good good good good….like motherhood, it’s good.
So glad democracy involves all citizens, not just the latter lefties here. Back to your ivory towers boys and girls, and keep telling yourselves it’s the climate policy that really matters…
Why on early isn’t Labor running an ad, morning noon and night in which it quotes Tony Abbott saying he’s not really interested in economics (if that is his quote).
In fact, it should be the ONLY ad they run. Run it ad nauseum.
I don’t watch much TV – but have I missed something?
A carefully managed campaign benefits Abbott because Lib strategists are the glue holding him together. A carefully managed campaign hinders Gillard because it’s holding her back. This is not an outlier poll, but it should represent a warning for the ALP to let Gillard off the leash.
The idea of weathering the GFC as a killer issue is a classic error. Nobody anywhere votes for ‘what have you done for me lately’. Record counts only in terms of credibility on future promises.
Gillard has both incumbency and a record of slicing through those aspects of Labor’s record that don’t suit. She should put both to advantage: this is what we’ve done and we’ll keep doing it, we’ve also done that but in future we’ll change direction. The recent flash of steel gives her credibility on both counts.
Abbott is trying to bring back the Howard-Costello government but without Howard or Costello. He has a record as a flake and of departing from the script with fatal results. The Liberals’ sole strategy is to maintain the tactics that got them where they are, to let Labor do the running. This strategy could dissolve in the face of steely resolve and maturity from Gillard this week: by next weekend the narrative could and should be all about how the Liberals blew it.
Let Gillard have her head, including flashes of anger. Tell Bruce Hawker to hire Karl Bitar. Swan has to go after Hockey and Robb: the mongrel that makes ALP Queenslanders tremble has to be publicly visible. People will forgive them if they slip, but if Abbott, Hockey and Robb slip their leashes they’ll be confirmed as bumblers. That’s the difference here, but it does depend on Gillard and Swan standing up to their people.
In terms of the leaks: whoever thought it was smart to leak that stuff about Rudd sending Jordan to the National Security Committee is reaping the whirlwind.
I can remember the first time I heard about Tone becoming PM, I thought that was ridiculous because he’s not really interested in economics. Surely I wasn’t alone on that.
That should be RAMMED down his throat.
ANDREW E – totally right. Got to take Tone out of his comfort zone.
Got to get this election back onto work choices and keep it there.
Dave, I see you too heard the execrable Michael Kroger on ABC Radio this morning. You seem to have remembered his line almost word for word. ‘I got stuck in a traffic jam! We must cut immigration at once!’
Sorry for my typo pavlov’s cat.
No wonder you have the right to look down on us stupid common folk.
Yeah, hole in one – I listened to Kroger on the radio, that’s where I got my simpleton idea/s from!!! If I was an intellectual like you guys I’d know that:
a) The problem isn’t migration – it’s lack of infrastructure!!
b) Climate policy is what really matter to most voters, because the fate of the world depends on the climate policy of a country with 22 million people.
“…it should represent a warning for the ALP to let Gillard off the leash.”
Agree with that. But Id also get Swan going mongrel on the GFC. It has to help to point out practically every other OECD went into recession. It undercuts the Libs “waste” message (keeping my job was wasteful spending?).
Even if Im wrong, there’s literally no downside. It doesnt bring up anything that avoiding the GFC doesnt trump.
Lest we forget:
15 reasons not to vote for Tony Abbott
BTW tigtog wasn’t meant that way. Sorry if ya took it that way.
Just tryin’ to help keep Abbott out.
Thnx for releasing the comment.
And BTW, I’ve been impressed w/ yer pieces.
N’
I’ve just added to my post:
Cheeky fella that Downer criticising Gillard. He was bleedin’ useless.
I thought ABC 24s political correspondent Andrew Greene was balanced & professional in reporting the facts of PM Gillard’s speech.
Sky News, Ashleigh Gillan & David Speers just brought up the same old griping crap. Biased stuff.
Not surprising. The Murdoch crew are generally moving into the easy on Abbott, bash Labor campaign (occasionally they try for “tricky dick” balance w/ backhanded compliments)…
we know that they played a huge role in distorting the insulation & BER programs, did refugee (invasion) beatups on a daily basis…and basically seem to detest Labor.
UNFAIR & UNBALANCED. LIMITED NEWS by RUPIE AND MINIONS.
We are no longer eyes wide shut.
N’
the change in gender voting intentions maybe linked to the leak about Gillard and maternity leave
Maybe Mark. Might the WW mention of Julia’s affair with Emerson also have something to do with it?
PeterTB, I can’t see why it would. It’s ancient history and never was a secret – why on earth would most women care about Julia having a romantic/sexual relationship with a fellow MP?
A reminder from the marvellous Lyn at Political Sword:
Think of how NEGATIVE this campaign is.
Abbott was a key member & headkicker in the Howard government.
His spots will not have changed in such a short period…he’s playing the sincere, softly spoken role…but what lies beneath we know.
Or should.
N’
@124
But people have apparently forgotten about how awful Abbott is. There seems to be a surge of nostalgia for the xenophobic, red-neck Mcmansion suburbia vibe of the Howard government and all they can see about Abbott is a red-blooded, forthright family man. Yes the Anglo-Australian working class still run the country. Heck, they’ve even forgotten about SerfChoices and as for the fact that Abbott doesn’t know the first thing about managing the economy – Pfft!
Once emotions get into the picture the way Abbott is manipulating it, reason has no chance.
So far Julia has looked a less than natural performer on the campaign trail. The scripted waffle and nothing policy releases leaving too much room for the press pack to run their own topics and lines of question. I think one can see from the banter with reporters before each press conference starts that they like her (she jokes and kisses up to them, so not what to like), but as a PM on the campaign trail, they aren’t respecting her.
Blaming the press will not change the status quo. This only leads to an Abbott victory. I’d personally love to see the following and I can see from other posts I’m not alone.
1. A press conference or at least a tour every day at a school with a great BER success story. Julia should spend real time in front of the cameras with teachers, parents and kids.
2. Be much less scripted in the press conferences. Shoot much more from the hip and do it with real passion. When time comes for questions, fire back at the journos and make them look small minded for asking such pathetic questions. We’ve seen this twice now, including today. It works and will gain their grudging respect.
3. Shout from the roof every success the govt. has had over the last 3 years and importantly even fight back on perceived failures like insulation.
4. It’s the economy, stupid. Everything. Every single program, but especially the NBN, training and health.
5. Get the hell off of Liberal strong points like immigration, boats, etc. If they’re not about the ‘economy’ then they’re wasting oxygen.
6. Get every distraction off the campaign trail. This includes Side Show Bob Hawke. He just reinforces what an unnatural campaigner Julia is. This goes for Kevin too. Every day he’s on the campaign trail will make people miss him and give the media a narrative their begging for. How is that not suicide for the new leader?
7. Stop referring to the government as ‘your government’. Instead try ‘our government’ or ‘the Labor government’. Every time Julia says ‘my government’ it sounds ridiculous. The whole country knows she’s been at the helm for only 6 weeks.
8. Fight. Fight, Julia, as if every day in this job is your last. Show a passion and commitment to the Australian people that reveals Tony Abbott as the hollow political opportunist he is.
Anyway, that’s my one and only rant for the day.
Cheers.
Elsewhere: Tigtog on turning Labor’s fortunes around.
Thanks for the link, Mark – although it’s mostly just a quote of Troy’s comment above with a few added thoughts, to get some positive discussion started over at Hoyden.
Gillard’s strength in the past has been her quiet confidence and wicked wit. Someone’s told her to keep the wit under a bushel, and without it the confidence doesn’t shine clearly. She needs to be her natural self and not so stage-managed, as troy said. Plus a daily press conference at a school with a BER success story is a fantastic idea.
Agree on that point particularly, tigtog.
As I said in comments over at Hoyden, the PM’s press conference this arvo on Perth was very effective in batting away media silliness, and focusing squarely on the economy and the contrast with Abbott.
Typical to see on ABC News 24 afterwards a journo interviewing another journo and just talking about polls and leaks.
Oh, she had a wicked dig at Dolly Downer that I enjoyed very much too!
Julia unleashes the mongrel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dW4NtYIu2XE
More of this, please.
Well said Troy.
Aha! That’s the dig at Dolly I loved, Lefty E! Thanks for the link. I think I’ll pop it up as a post to give it some more publicity!
The punters have grown tired of being patronised. Yet at the same time the punters want simple solutions to complex problems.
That’s a tough ask for a leader who is carrying personal baggage and who is also bearing fading expectations of a party of principle.
Which particular suitcase do you have in mind, Katz?
Mark @ 108
“ensuring that every answer to a question on leaks and polls gave her the chance to draw a contrast with Abbott and talking about economic management”
Not quite. She said that the most recent leak is insulting to her and to the junior staffer because he has 20 years security/services experience.
I’m afraid that response doesn’t cut it. I think anyone who saw the response would infer, correctly IMHO, that the leak was accurate.
@136 – Grigory M, she is not denying that on occasion a staffer attended in her place to take notes and brief her subsequently. Rudd said the same with Alister Jordan. It’s a storm in a teacup. I’d be very surprised if every single NSC meeting under the Howard government had a full attendance from the Ministers on the committee.
It’s a very powerful way to combat quite a silly accusation.
Whereas I think her answer, correctly, would provoke the inference that the leak was maliciously irrelevant, whether accurate or not.
phfft to polls depressing as they are. Hope ALP are victors.
KRudd should never have been deposed – at least he had intelligence.
Has anyone considered the alternative government?
Abbott, Bishop, Ruddock, Andrews et al? Puke making!
Think about that voters.
En Avant ALP
Indeed.
I nearly missed this one. Is every staffer on the hill a “junior staffer” now according to Coalition talking points? A man with 20 years experience in a relevant profession before he started a second career as a political advisor sounds the very opposite of “junior” to me.
I guess in his case he’s probably over 40 so they can’t go with the callow youth line usually leveled at Rudd’s staffers!
Minor technicality folks.
She actually said “offensive”, not ‘insulting’.
Thanks for the rapid correction to your earlier mis-paraphrasing, Grigory M.
The baggage of knifing Rudd.
Oh, that baggage.
*zips lip, mindful of (and grateful for) the ‘endless rehashing’ rule*
Some of this is a correction after an initial honeymoon among female voters that was never going to be carried forward to election day, the fundamentals would have Labor winning narrowly but it is close enough to go either way.
Thank heavens for zips.
I would too, Mark, so why are Gillard and Co. not retaliating and shutting them up? I presume that even in caretaker mode they would have access to minutes, attendance records etc?
Tigtog, thanks for the call out.
I agree with your post at Hoyden that a daily overdose of relentless positivity is needed. I agree with Lefty E too that we need to see more ‘going the mongrel’ from Julia. No matter what, I’m desperate to see Labor wrest control of the agenda.
I’d frankly love to see Julia challenge Abbott to more debates. One on each of:
- Education, equity of opportunity, access to modern education services and how this impacts the economy of tomorrow, not just today
- NBN, telecommunications and the importance of communications technology to a 21st century economy
- Investing in infrastructure. Public transport, roads, technology – include it all. Discuss world’s best practice and show some real vision. Talk about the role of government alongside private enterprise
- Health (why the hell not go there again?), the positive economic impacts of a healthy population and the need to modernise our health system
Julia is great at thinking on her feet and Tony isn’t. Call for a debate every few days. It’s likely he’d say no. This would give the opportunity to bash him daily as a backward-looking coward. If he did say yes, then be willing to meet this challenge as a positive for your own campaign.
If the Libs call for a debate on boats, call them out for being small-minded and unable to have a discourse about the real future challenges for our future.
This would be the way I’d get back control of the agenda. There’s only 3 weeks to go. Being radical has got to be bettter than losing.
Sorry folks. That’s two rants for the day.
Troy
You have made some very good points. Given that they aren’t going to have any radically new policies to sell over the next three weeks, they do have to emphasise the positives in their record and contrast them better with what the opposition is offering.
Earlier I wasn’t indicating that the ALP shouldn’t talk up the response to the GFC, I was just saying that it isn’t as easy to make capital out of it as some may think.
Your BER idea is an interesting one. I get the feeling that Labor have been running away from it because of all the MSM reporting of waste. Your idea is a good way of turning that on its head.
Unpredictability is also good. I was amazed when the ALP decided to debate Abbott only once. I think it was motivated by not wanting to make Abbott look like an alternative PM. But Gillard needs it both to put Abbott under pressure and look more prime ministerial herself.
Interestingly, in the UK, Brown’s campaign only began to improve once he got rid of the tired scripts and went on the offensive. Gillard is a likable person. Let her be herself. Get rid of the moving forwards crap and show some passion. Tell the voters exactly why it is vital for the nation to win (but lose the cost of living crap).
Btw, that NSC leak is more damaging than some here think. Gillard has no national security credentials. It feeds into a perception that she doesn’t take security very seriously. And she needs to stop with the cabinet confidentiality line. It isn’t convincing and gives the impression she has something to hide. Remember, people in voter land don’t see these things in the same way.
LO, she ceased the cabinet confidentiality line already today, didn’t she? As Mark’s post highlighted.
This ALP campaign is very like the campaign unamimously declared the worst ever in political history – the W.A. ALP 2008 state election disaster. Although nobody thought the then opposition a credible alternative, the ALP said nothing inspiring and convincing, nothing even approving of its record.
Fifteen months later, the ALP (now opposition) leader Eric Ripper, wrote a little letter to the paper, defending his government. He cited $30 billion invested in infrastructure which included 63 new schools, huge extension of rail to Mandurah, Thornlie and Clarkson, 19 new police stations, first big metropolitan desalination plant in Australia, a billion $ put aside for a new mega-hospital, 1000 more doctors, 2000 more nurses, a million square kilometres of native title recognition ……
I asked everyone I knew if they had read that letter. Everyone had, and they all said the same thing: “Why didn’t they say that during the campaign?”
Hey Tigtog
I live in Paris, so hadn’t caught up with that yet. Glad to hear she changed tack though as it was a horrible line to be running.
When your enemies are gunning for you and you think what you have done is defensible, then you have to attack. Otherwise you just look week and give the impression that they are right.
She did the same thing on the pensions leak. It took her too long to respond.
One thing that Kevin had in his favour was a media team that kicked into action as soon as this shit went down.
Hey LO, I’m going to be in Paris myself in early October. Perhaps we should meet up for a tisane?
“LO is right about the difficulty of getting a message out in the face of the media narrative.”
So we all agree then, the media does have significant influence in shaping the context? I ask for clarification as it appeared to me that many posters were vehemently refuting the notion that the media had framed the Rudd PM-ship within a context of failure/dysfunction and had thus contibuted to the coup.
Sorry, Peter TB, you’ve acheived a breathtaking margin for crassness that even I’ve strived but failed to attain, for years smiles..
That sounds good tigtog…I presume as a mod you have access to my email address? Drop me a line..
Andrew E have been expecting your next comment on ‘Abbott Skeptics. Are you really him as you appear to have inside knowledge on the Libs achilles heel?
Interesting comment and worthy of some action if we are to turn this thing around.
Does anyone know how we can the email addresses for Julia & Wayne?
Anthony Albanese is my local member. Is it worth bombarding him, or to use Ashleigh Gillon’s only known expression, “peppering” him with emails?
Perceptions of Labor national security weakness can’t simply be ‘fixed’, not in this world, a world where Tony Abbott is never asked a single question about whether he might have questioned the invasion of Iraq as a Cabinet minister. Sure, he can run with his Cabinet minority opinion RE WorkChoices as part of his great “trust me, I won’t ___ in your mouth” pledge to the voters, but it would be unseemly to ask him about his role in that pivotal discussion on Iraq. Undermining national security is a major part of the Coalition’s national security dominance. And if it goes badly it is always fixed, automatically.
Anyway, LO, we all know whom the greatest Labor PM on natl. sec. issues since the death of John Curtin was, don’t we?
It really is best for Labor to just ignore this area, and concentrate on things where they are allowed to beat the Libs.
From the beginning was that Labor needed to run hard on its economic record through the GFC. Instead, it chose to play in the Coalition’s cesspool on asylum seekers and all the other fear and loathing buttons the conservatives love to push.
In the last three weeks, they need to change the focus to the economy. As Ross Gittins points out in his column this weekend, governing politicians in most developed economies right now would sacrifice their first born for the fundamentals that Australia is enjoying.
Everything I hear from professional colleagues and friends in the US, the UK and Europe suggest those economies are basket cases – debt-ridden, high unemployment and with nothing left in the policy toolshed to fix things.
We have debt of less than 8 per cent of GDP, compared with an OECD average of close to 100 per cent. We have plenty of ammunition to cut interest rates should there be a global dip, we have huge borrowing capacity and we have a government that is willing to tackle the dangers of us succumbing to Dutch Disease, where a booming resource sector hollows out the rest of the economy.
What is Abbott proposing? Nothing. He wants to “turn back the boats and pay down the debt”. Both of these problems are his own creation. He would sack Ken Henry and more likely than not try and dislodge Glenn Stevens. The Coalition are the wreckers and the flakes here. But WHY can’t Labor communicate that??
Don’t forget the baby eating!
Because it’s the fiscal equivalent of running up the credit card to make interest payments on the mortgage.
Nonsense Craig. See Stiglitz on waste – letting everyone lose their jobs.
Some debt is productive (eg if invested in infrastructure). Some isnt (eg invested in private housing, like 95% of Australia’s debt, thanks the Howard’ bubble policies)
Why dont you explain to the electorate that you’d rather have 10% unemployment than 3 years of debt.
Good luck with that!
Three years of debt? In which universe? It’s three years until Swan plans on even running a surplus.
If `three years’ indicates financial calender 2012/13, then take a wild guess who else is planning to wait until then to balance the budget…
If `three years’ indicates financial calender 2012/13, then take a wild guess who else is planning to wait until then to balance the budget…
Nickws – I think you are missing Craig’s point. If the surpluses start in 2012/13, that is only when we begin to pay back the debt – for the foreseeable future!
WHAT is sacrosanct about running a surplus?? If we were running a surplus at this point, our unemployment rate would be north of 10 per cent and the government’s revenues would be taking a massive hit from the resulting recession.
Our deficit is very, very small by world standards. See my Debt Delusionpost. Global asset managers are currently getting out of equities into fixed interest – and Australian government ‘AAA’-rated bonds are something they can’t get enough of.
But don’t let the facts get in the way of your story Craig.
I’m more concerned about private debt – now THAT’S out of control. All aided and abetted by govt and exploding after Howard’s capital gain discounts and first home buyers grant.
All totally unproductive debt.
I’ll give a better analogy for the LNP stance Craig: its like pointing the $6.80 balance on your transport metcard, while your private credit card is maxed to the hilt, and declaring ‘finances sound’.
Debt! I commented earlier that the ALP should say what it’s done. At the moment the impression is that the government has frittered away all the stimulus money and left us with nothing but debt.
I haven’t heard of the hundreds of millions for a new port in W.A. – a port for shipping minerals out of, so, not a bad idea. Hundreds of millions to expand the Ord River irrigation project. I could go on. The government didn’t invent these projects as ‘make work schemes’ – they are projects which will create great wealth. What the ‘debt’ represents should be, in every way (employment, investment etc) a fantastic plus for the government. How have they lost control of this story?
Yeah, economic simpletons in this country call the same thing a ‘debt’ (booo!) when its public, and an ‘investment’ (yayy!) when its private.
Russell’s point is well made though: there is a sort of nation-building narrative defence from the govt side about the GFC, but they are too sotto voce on the long-term productivity benefits.
Never mind the investment in people’s lives by saving them from the scrapheap of unemployment.
I just cannot believe Labor’s failure to run harder on this.
Mr Denmore both parties have devoted the last 20 years to persuading the public that running a country is just like managing the household budget. Surplus = good, debt = ZOMG THEYZ PUTTING OUR CHILDREN’S FUTURE ON THE VISA CARD.
They’ve treated people like children for years. As they sowed, so shall they reap. F*** the lot of them.
So @167 was actually condemning both parties when he conflated the budget deficit with government debt, eh?
Hmmm, subtle. I hope.