I’m sure there’ll be lots more of this around in tomorrow’s papers, but this article by David Penberthy caught my eye via a Twitter link. In less portentous tones than Paul Kelly, “Penbo” opines in similarly petulant vein.
The good folk of Western Sydney, it seems, are going to have their concerns ignored because all attention will now be on the bush! Life is rosy in the regions, rents are cheaper, there are no toll roads, etc, etc.
But now, we’re told, the regions will benefit at Western Sydney battlers’ expense.
That’s not because of nice Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott, who are honourable men – though the venal major parties won’t be able to resist pushing pork at them.
But the real villain of the piece is Bob Katter (strangely misdescribed as a “former Howard government Minister”). Perhaps that’s because he gave the press a serve yesterday. Presumably Penberthy missed Tony Windsor’s view that the Daily Telegraph is a joke, and that he had no intention of taking any notice of its bloviating.
But it’s a travesty of democracy, you see!
The conclusion?
The fact that one of these men is waging some war in his own mind on the big cities of Australia is reason enough to go straight back to the polls.
A new election will cost the taxpayers about $170 million. It’s a small price to pay for stability, which is something neither side will be able to deliver as a result of the seemingly insurmountable impasse created by Saturday’s mad result.
How out of touch are these people? Do they really imagine that we’re all sitting around demanding another election now? Really?
The faux-populism aside, this is a very transparent play.
This is just delusional tripe from The Australian’s Dennis Shanahan. He’s just given up, he’s not even trying.
We know Mr Rabbit’s game is up, he’s self-flagellating and biting his tongue and about to punch Julie Bishop, just coz she’s the closest and coz Hockey hiding with the costings!
These independents deserve a @#$%ing statue! Love it!
It is appalling for any journalist to issue a strident call for a new election this early. These men should be ashamed of themselves.
A major party has made clear in writing that it can live with the procedural requests made by the Independents today.
One can argue that the substance of the negotiations should commence much earlier than the end of next week, but absent a response in that vein from either Coalition or ALP I think it is presumptuous for a journalist to call even for that.
I usually don’t have much time for media conspiracy theories, but questions should be asked here.
Take heart, Kim, Andrew Bolt is taking this rhetorical gambit and ploughing it with salt into the fields of RARAland:
Those bits I bolded are very weird little brainfarts from our Andrew, he’s normally very careful not to go the full Akerman by throwing out bitter non sequiturs—or to give the impression he’s writing in his cups. This indicates to me that Bolt, the pundit with the greatest access to Coalition leadership circles, realises it’s all for nought. There isn’t going to be either a minority Abbott govt or a new election.
Gotta love the fact the Big Three aren’t effected by spin from either the MSM or the Right commentariat.
Does come across as a pantomime, but the born to rule attitude is always a give away.
Gotta hand it to Bolt’s sexism (3.) there Nickws!
Sure, we support the idea of a diverse parliament run by members who represent the best interests of their electorates because it’s some girly wishy-washy crap!
What does he prefer? Some kind of neo-Moscan post-fascist oligarchy of the press gallery? That would be, urhm, more macho right?
Oh you Independent MPs Why must you defy the Daily Telegraph’s authoritative transmission of the Voice Of The People?
[ahem]
That poll is being spun in a most hectoring tone all over the Murdoch press today, isn’t it?
We all know in News Limited land, polls have much more “legitimacy” than elections.
And the ABC gives Mr Abbott ten minutes of air time to be gently massaged by their political correspondent, Lyndall Curtis.
Even under such gentle questioning he sounded rather too strident.
Watch as this disease moves straight to ABC reports and commentary today and weep.
Came across Penberthy’s article yesterday & found it an appalling piece of work. Numerous inaccuracies, the most blatant being naming Katter as a Howard Government minister. The perceptions that he tried to peddle about rural Australia were to put it mildly unhelpful; you can safely add much stronger language & a few expletives to my initial reaction to this article.
The trouble with another election, and another election, and another election after that if the Liberals still aren’t in power is that Liberals can tap deeper pockets than Labor or Greens. Hell, Greens struggle to print enough How To Votes and they don’t get media coverage unless they pay for advertising. The Liberals get free publicity in the guise of news from Channel 9 and News. You can bet Carl and Lisa are slyly telling people that this uncertainty will hurt them.
Adrian note how he changed his story from last night completely. Now it is back to illegal leaks from treasury. He cannot hand over his dodgy figures because investigations are proceeding.
tigtog, of course it is. Not only have the people spoken, that have said what the bought media wanted them to say. Anything else is unacceptable.
At the risk of channelling Idiot/Savant, the right wing are threatening to send us back to vote again (and again) until we get it right. Just like Tokelau and Nauru.
The choice of ‘stability’ as the supreme political virtue is interesting. There’s not much potentially unstable about a hung parliament; quite the opposite, because if nothing can get through parliament then everything will coast along just like before.
What they really mean is not ‘instability’ but ‘change’. They are scared witless that the Greens and the independents might upset the cosy arrangements that have sustained existing power relations in society for decades. It would be nice if Labor rediscovered its progressive roots and treated this as an opportunity to change the tenor and direction of political discourse in Australia, but I won’t hold my breath in anticipation. Gillard’s letter to the independents read like a response to a union log of claims; I did not get any sense that she wanted to use this occasion to break the shackles of politics-as-usual.
Shanidan and Sherahan are doing their comradely duty in today’s OO.
Bernard Keane said on twitter: “Dennis Shanahan – both a cockhead and startlingly ignorant. Impressive.”
I wasn’t sure of the context, but I think I now know.
Perhaps I’ve been in the surf too long but have there been any rumours or rumblings about a splinter group from one side or the other doing a dash to the other side?
Something like the wet liberals who could agree to a carbon tax/ pricing mechanism and reasonable treatment of refugees joining in a government with the independents, greens and the ALP.
If Turnbull isn’t going to lead the Liberals might he be tempted by a major role in government? His position in Wentworth looks very solid and the support for a change of direction would be so strong I don’t think a future as an independent would be a concern.
Without greater numbers than 76 – say 80 at least the long term stability prognosis looks weak and as such while the appeal of another election is not great the chances seem to be that it will occur sooner rather than later.
I’m afraid the independents are going to be under a lot of pressure today to back down and admit a new election is required. In my view this is disgraceful, while bona fide attempts to form a government are still taking their course. Can I suggest,instead of an attitude of resignation:
- complaints where journalistic stndards have been breached eg by presenting opinion as fact (Australian Press Council I presume:http://www.presscouncil.org.au/pcsite/complain.html);
- communication with the MPs concerned;
- remember that the rights of Parliamentarians are protected under the Bill of Rights (as incorporated by s 49 of the Constitution). In particular conduct (including the use of words)…[which] amounts, or is intended or likely to amount, to an improper interference … with the free performance by a member of the member’s duties as a member” is contempt of Parliament (Parliamentary Privileges Act 1987).
As I’ve said elsewhere, Kim and TT, why don’t the Murdoch papers ask voters in Western Sydney who they’d like to form minority government? Say, a poll of the seats of Lindsay, Greenway, Chifley, Reid, Watson, Fowler and Werriwa?
moz@14, I believe it would be only a small section of the right agreeing with type of nonsense in the Murdoch press.
To give an indication of the reaction to this article by rural conservatives the following is from a friend who submitted this comment to The Punch but was moderated out. I don’t believe it is overtly offensive so I’ll throw it in here.
I suspect at least one of the Independents, Tony Windsor, would like to see a new poll, hence his spruiking about sending voters back to the poll, perhaps. If he supports Labor, he loses the Tamworth half of the electorate. If he supports the Libs he loses most of the Armidale half of the electorate. Either way, next election, the Nats come up through the middle and win the seat.
For me, this moment from Paul Kelly shows the “depth” of his moral acumen:
So the Greens stood up for their principles and defended one of their core policy goals and he thinks of it as “brilliant realpolitik.”
He’s completely lost track of the difference between “realpolitik” and “principles.” And he has the gall to print this shit under a cartoon taking the piss out of Julia Gillard’s bloodymindedness.
I doubt that the Independents would lose much whatever way they go provided that theyretain most of their independence on the issues that matter to them.
Paul B @ 22, you have a closer look at Windsor than I do, but he comes across to me as a bloke who wants to fix a broken system and will take his chances with the voters.
Ugh. This is too appalling.
News’ lead story conflates the two issues of Abbott’s dodgy costings and ‘but the voters want Abbott!” into one smoosh.
So smooshed the headline is the poll and the dodgy costings are buried deep in a paragraph somewhere with no sub-heading. And, you think that Katter has said positive things about Abbott.
A new election will not enable the Liberal Democrats to correct their Senate preferencing decision which looks like being decisive in getting the DLP candidate elected ahead of the third candidates on the Labor and Coalition tickets in Victoria.
Paul Norton said:
Oh BOY are they what! Shanahan’s article is quite, unintentionally, hilarious. Take this small snippet:
It took me a few re-reads to realise he was talking about Abbott!
It took me a little while longer to realise he was referring to the fact that this is the worst result for a first term Government for a very long time (can’t be bothered to look it up). Geez Louise that is one long bow. What an arse-licker!
The funniest thing though, is that this might be high point of Tony’s career, forever known as “The most successful opposition leader in Australia’s history”. If it should come to pass it would be fitting.
Paul @ 22 that’s the problem for all the independents isn’t it? If they come to be perceived as a bloc within one of the major parties they are no longer independent, and therefore lose much of the support base that put them in parliament in the first place.
I think they have made a grievous tactical error in appearing to be working as a little collective. People in Port Macquarie will be asking why nice Rob Oakeshott is suddenly making common cause with that lunatic from FNQ. Andrew Wilkie is playing a much smarter game; I believe Peter Andren would have done the same.
What was it Tony said after being asked why he did not take his paid parental plan to cabinet? Something along the lines of “sometimes it is better to ask forgiveness after the event”.
This was always his plan to slide into office then formulate the excuses. Fits very well with the ethos of Catholics that you can wipe the slate clean on Sunday.
Hopefully the indies will stick to their guns and make Mr Rabbit seek his forgiveness before he gets the prize. I think Tony would choke on this as it always easy to ask forgiveness after you got what you wanted, much harder to ask beforehand.
Let me first say on a personal level Windsor is a good, sincere ethical man. But he is not, and never has been pro-Labor. He’s also a very professional politician, and he’s got better at it over the years. He is under considerable pressure from the Tamworth side and beyond, to go for the Coalition. Armidale, which arguably is more pro Labor (Labor used to win most of the Armidale booths years ago, and actually elected and re-elected a Labor member for the state electorate which does not include Tamworth many years ago) simply does not have the numbers pver the rest of the electorate to influence Windsor toward Labor.
If Windsor did back a Liberal minority, the return of Labor voters to the fold, who currently vote to keep the Nats out, wqould not outnumber the return of Nats to the fold next election who would be pissed off at him supporting a Labor minority government. The next election here then would end up being a close contest. I estimate Windsor’s 70% vote would go to preferences, with Winsor and the Nats neck and neck. (unless Labor and the Greens did not stand candidates, which would be highly unlikely.)
I do take a certain perverse pleasure in Victoria being well established as the home of crazy right-wing micro-party Senators.
d
paul burns, I thought that letter they sent to JG showed all 3 of the independents to be consummate politicians. They certainly know the system, and how to back someone into a corner very nicely. Without having any opinion on the rest of what you said, I have to wonder whether Smuggles is going to find he’s met his match in those 3.
Paul, I’m not sure about all this calculus about how many voters in the respective seats support Labor or the Coalition. The reality is that it’s an unprecedented situation, and they will have to make their minds up one way or another, and then try to sell the decision. The level of support each one attracts implies that they have a lot of credibility with their voters, and if the parliament can keep going for 2 or 3 years, a long time to justify the benefits of their choice.
I’d also observe that in all three elections Labor pretty much runs dead. I know Katter’s vote includes a lot of people who vote ALP at state level, and I’d be surprised if Oakeshott and Windsor don’t also get support from electors whose preference might otherwise lean towards Labor.
It’s instructive to compare the HoR and Senate vote for Labor and the Greens in the seats held by Katter, Oakeshott and Windsor.
Lyne (Oakeshott):
HoR: Labor 13.33%, Greens 3.91%. Senate: Labor 30.53%, Greens 8.11%.
New England (Windsor):
HoR: Labor 8.02%, Greens 3.66%. Senate: Labor 29.66%, Greens 6.87%.
Kennedy (Katter):
HoR: Labor 20.59%, Greens 4.24%. Senate: Labor 27.24%, Greens 6.20%.
In short, Kim’s intuition #34 is correct.
“Running dead” in New England doesn’t really describe just how little effort the ALP put into this electorate. When we moved here I had very little idea who Windsor was and preferenced him fairly low, but this time he got my second preference based on some correspondence we had some time ago about digital TV in the district.
He (somewhat surprisingly at the time) struck me as both measured and distinctly non-plussed with the Howard government both in process and ideology. I had him figured for some kind of nutty ex-Nat but I couldn’t have been more wrong. I wouldn’t imagine that he shares a lot in common with most urban ALP voters, but Tamworth is surprisingly diverse – just about every major cultural group works shoulder to shoulder on the Country Fresh meatworks floor for example – Windsor well understands what immigration (for example) can mean for regional Australia and he’s probably to the left of the ALP on the issue.
Yes, Ute Man, I think there’s a reflexive view in the media that regional Australia is uniformly big ‘C’ conservative when in fact it is much more disparate than that.
I was in regional NSW on holidays last month and was struck by the large number of people I encountered who had fled the big cities for a quieter life, but who retained their progessive principles.
Regional towns such as Orange in NSW are positively cosmopolitan, liberal-minded and green-oriented. So I think we are seeing a ‘tree-change’ element at work.
I heard that one of the reasons Oakeshott in independent is so that he can move to the left as the demography of his electorate moves that way.
Aidan @ 28:
My memory is that Howard won in 1998 with 49% of the TPP and that as few as 3000 votes in half a dozen electorates could have seen him go down.
My memory could be wrong, of course.
#37 and it’s not a coincidence that the state electorate of Dubbo keeps returning Dawn Fardell, a centrist independent, or that the federal electorate of Calare kept electing Andren.
Ken @29, it depends on what they do: I thought they were going to work together to determine who to support wrt Supply and confidence motions, but were keeping their right to vote as they see fit otherwise. Their requests are in line with this approach. If they can get either major party to cooperate and run a full term, there is plenty of time to win back support in their electorates.
The danger is that if they pick a side and then the whole thing collapses, they will be blamed by all and sundry. However, this might not matter too much to them: Katter is 65 and Windsor 60. Oakeshott is 40 but his electorate might be a bit more forgiving than Windsor’s anyway — lots of sea-changers.
Yes, Paul Norton @ 27. The sixth Senate seat in Victoria came down to a contest among the DLP, Steve Fielding and Julian McGauran. Hobson would never have even thought of anything that diabolical.
@37 – The same hold true for Toowoomba, where I’ve been twice this year for about four days at a stretch. I don’t want to imply that all is rosy there from a progressive point of view, but Labor has held one state seat consistently, and there’s much more of a cosmopolitan feel to the city than, say, ten years ago. Both tree changers and the impact of a regional university are factors, I think. There’s also a 1000 strong largely Sudanese refugee community.
It also sounds like it would be against Penbo’s principles to go bush! I think in the commentary of many of the national press gallery, we’re seeing the usual disconnect from what modern Australia is actually like, and a retreat to outdated cliches magnified.
Pathetic isn’t it. The Digger wants reruns until he gets the result he wants. (While they’re at it they might rerun the Menzies years without the DLP coming off the bench for the Coalition.)
And yes, Howard got back in ’98 with barely 49% of the 2PP vote – saved by his huge majority from ’96 – which also puts into perspective all the hype about his ‘courage’ in going to the electorate in ’98 with the GST.
No I think you’re right. I didn’t mention that, but it was another reason why the “Australia’s best Opposition leader” was quite ridiculous hyperbole. Shanahan really is embarrassingly partisan.
Let us hope that Abbott remains, Australia’s best opposition leader for 10 or 12 years. I’d be up for that.
This is what happens when journalists stop being reporters, never leave the office to talk to people and are content merely to sit on their thrones in Sydney and Canberra cutting and pasting from each other’s work.
In Paul Kelly’s case, however, he goes one better and cuts and pastes from his own copy – usually going back to the 1980s – a textbook case of a hack living off his reputation.
Lazy, inward-looking “insiders” all, desperately clinging onto a reality that no longer exists, if it ever did.
“this is the worst result for a first term Government for a very long time”
Not wanting to add to the pile-on particularly, but this election was only about half as bad for the Government than the 1998 election. 2pp swing in 1998 was 4.6% and the Opposition picked up 18 seats. That’s far and away the worst 2nd term election since WW2.
d
Makes you wonder what voters think they are getting when they vote for an independent.
They want to send a message to the parties but when their preferred party doesn’t get over the line they want to have another go at deciding the election outcome?
As Paul Burns has noted, New England is not 100% conservative, it has a university town and a Sudanese refugee population among other things, so why the born to rulers should believe that they are owed one is beyond me.
The Murdoch influence on our politics is but one tumour in a speading cancer:
The Slow Creep Towards The Outsourcing of Australia’s Government?
http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2010/08/26/the-slow-creep-towards-the-outsourcing-of-australias-government/
I’m pleased we have The Greens & “Indies” in there now.
Cheers
N’
bmitw @ 49,
Mind you, some of the Liberal student politicians that have come out of UNE, most of them, actually, have been to the far right of Hitler.
Paul Burns: that’s because Hitler wasn’t very far right by today’s standards. In fact, he was very left on some stuff (it wasn’t called “National SOCIALISM” because Eva liked the sound of it). I mean, sure, Guantanamo, Afganistan, “offshore processing” and so on by all means, but state control of industry is hardly “far right”?
The rules according to the MSM, you will keep voting until you get it right!
Paul Burns @23, it may not happen. There will be three years for things to settle down and hopefully some good legislation to take the sting out of Windsor supporting Labour, if that’s what he does.
If he supports Smuggles and things go to hell, he could be in trouble.
Aiden @29: You said
The 2PP at the end of Howard’s first term was about 52:48 in favor of Beazley which seems a lot worse than current 2PP of 50.5:49.5 in favor of Gillard. I guess Shanahan isn’t allowed admit that Beazley did a lot better than Abbott.
Tonight’s 7.30 report had Bracks and Greiner talking about their experience running minority governments with the support of independents. They both said the influence of the independents had a positive effect as a result of changes to the process and introduction of 4 yr terms in NSW.
Bracks made the point that having to convince the independents to support legislation resulted in more thoughtful legislation. As he said they had a modifying influence that was helpful to the government.
Windsor was on of the independents that supported Greiner.
Being bored this morning I switched on Channel 9 this morning to hear Kerry-Anne Kennerley with two political “experts” pontificating on the current hung parliament. They all agreed that everyone was sick of the independents and that another election was needed immediately.
Just checked out Nasking’s comment and link at fifty and admit it’s something concerning me also.
Catch 22, Volgon freeway, Authur Dent moment, as someone elsewhere said, a cancer.
Exactly. In the 11-year Labor rule, I still think that this was about their best period.
As to conservative-leaning voters ‘punishing’ the independents for their ‘betrayal’, it didn’t happen. Russell Savage went on quite comfortably as in independent till retirement. Craig Ingham is still an independent today. The only one to miss out was the Labor-leaning one Susan what’s-her-name and that was only because a redistribution took away her old constituency.
I don’t believe the independents have anything to fear on that account. Mind you, it helped that Savage hated Kennett and the others weren’t all that kindly to him. But there was integrity and transparency in all the actions of that trio, and I think their voters recognized it.
To return to topic, the call for another election is codswallop. Governments are made and unmade on the floor of parliament. It must first be shown to be unworkable.
I think Ms. Grattan has joined the new election camp.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/this-tiptoe-along-the-precipice-has-an-awful-lot-of-downsides-20100826-13u4n.html
I dunno Terry – I thought Grattan’s piece ended up as a quite balanced view of the situation. There are a lot of downsides to the current situation, for not just the major parties, since the rural independents are in a one-time only position of influence that they could easily squander (love that word) if they fall into the overreach trap.
As much as people like us are loving the spotlight and microscope being placed on ossified procedures and conventions that stultify genuine debate and negotiation in a normal majority parliament, many less fascinated observers are merely anxious and not as confident as we might be about the robustness of our caretaker conventions being able to keep the country safely ticking over for weeks and even months yet.
The Opposition Organ has already declared the last seat to the CLP, as they would, and are running the next, new, bigger, scare campaign that Steve Fielding will block a Labor Government.
Conveniently misunderstanding that governments are formed in the lower house and that it would require total obstruction from the Liberals, as well. Not a good look for the CLP if they were to do it.
The Poison Dwarf seems to see the writing on the wall for Abbott.
tigtog @ 62
Oh s__t. Being written off by The Poison Dwarf would be the best news Tony Abbott has had all week. If Bob Ellis starts proclaiming his rhetorical skills on The Drum, then the rot really has set in.
The Poison Dwarf seems to see the writing on the wall for Abbott.
That’s it then. Abbott will be in the Lodge by Monday.
JohnD@54: I guess Shanahan isn’t allowed admit that Beazley did a lot better than Abbott.
I dunno, “Abbott: not quite as good as Beazley” has a certain ring to it. Definitely places him in context.