Trying to predict what’ll make the news in 2011 is like trying to predict the daily weather for 2011. A longer timeframe, however, some of the noise filters out and the structural trends become clearer. So I reckon it’s actually easier to make predictions about the next decade than the next year.
It’s also less likely that you’ll actually be called on them 
Below the fold, some discussion starters. Please disagree and/or make your own!
On a personal note, I’d like to thank all LP contributors, commenters, and random lurkers for visiting in 2010, and hope that you’ll continue to do so in 2011. Remember, we’re always looking for good guest posts!
- To start off, some time in the 2010s there will be a public panic in Australia about China’s growing hard military power. Not saying such a panic is justified, mind you, but it’ll happen. One potential trigger – the launching of a Chinese aircraft carrier. Australian politicians will throw even larger amounts of money than they presently do at the Navy and Air Force in response.
- The endless supply of really cheap Chinese labour will disappear, spurring a new round of technological developments in factory automation.
- Climate change denialism will become increasingly untenable as what were formerly extreme weather events become routine around the world. We will (finally) get serious about acting on climate change, and geoengineering will become a hotly debated topic (pardon the pun).
- Alzheimer’s disease will become the developed world’s most pressing public health issue.
- The Australian federal government’s tax take, as a share of GDP, will be substantially higher than in 2020 than it was in 2010. This will happen regardless of which party is in power.
- The Indian cricket team will dominate international cricket to the point where the Indian public completely lose interest in it, preferring their domestic league.
Julia could have a 20/20 summit.
Have a good one, one and all!
My predictions
The mad monk will implode and the world of OZ will rejoice(I hope),
the OZ soccer team will beat at least one good international team(I live in hope).
The MSM will start reporting news not opinions (hope springs eternal)there are many more but others can add theirs a they see fit, Happy New Year to all
On 2020 and alzheimer’s: while it may be a significant problem, it won’t be the most pressing – obesity and sequelae (diabetes 2, cardiovascular, etc, etc) will be much more costly. At least alzheimer’s increases might promote intelligent and compassionate policy debate on euthanasia, although I suspect that education will remain as is, rather than promote cognitive reserve by lateral and out-of-the-box thinking that maintains function even with severe physical brain changes – that would lead to an uppity population – too inconvenient for politicians and bosses.
Besides, the progress on inflammation processes and CNS pathology is chugging along nicely, and there’ll be a couple of breakthroughs for alzheimers in the next few years.
Overeating, indeed the whole GDP-enhancing overconsumption of everything, is much less tractable because of industry lobbies, political incapability to push better indicators of national well-being, and also affects /permanently/ those who are much younger.
… And a happy new year to all…. Stay safe, stay nice
Predictions for next year are pretty difficult, save that the sitting of the new senate will change our political landscape. Only then will the brakes come off the Gillard+Greens+Independents government, and we will finally see if it can be made to work for the good of the country. Fingers crossed.
Prediction for the next decade? Two words: Peak. Oil.
One word: Sealab.
Kangas to win the flag
Bill Shorten for PM by end of year? Maybe not – but I will be somewhat surprised if Julia is still PM in the face of sagging Labor polling.
Happy New Year All
A cure for HIV?
I will also add peak oil. It means the end of economic growth and major changes in many aspects of our lives. I also think that while the debate over climate change will come to an end there will be a realisation that our capacity to mitigate it is perhaps limited. Even in the post-peak oil world we continue to rely on fossil fuels to meet many of our energy needs. The transition to other forms of energy won’t be as easy as many people think for both technical and economic reasons.
My prediction: ‘climate change’ will take a backseat to real class struggle politics.
Pessimism and optimism for the next 10 years:
1. End of coal fired power in Australia.
2. Voters suddenly twig that halving our power related emissions will cost them less than 55 cents/day per capita AND DEMAND GOVERNMENTS GET ON WITH IT.
3. Solar PV becomes the cheapest source of power.
4. Voters go into the next election realizing that we would have got more real climate action if Greg Hunt had been environment minister.
5. Most new cars plug in hybrid or pure electric.
6. Average fuel consumption of new cars drops below 10% of current level.
7. Narrow track cars become the norm for urban private transport.
8. Electric assist push bikes evolve into something that is a good way to travel on a wet day.
9. The idea that putting a price on carbon falls out of fashion. Ditto the idea that free market purity is the answer to everything.
10. Productivity is redefined as production per available person hour.
My desired prediction for the new year, especially here in Queensland, is that all local government councils get together and develop new house level limits for all new houses and house rennovations so they are all built above the flood risk zone for each area.
What has happened over the years? We used to have all those beautiful Queenslanders built above the flood risk levels. Now developers move in and put boxes on cement slabs. Have they corrupted all the local government residential development approvers?
I agree with UN Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, Margareta Wahlström. We need to prepare better for flood. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=37173&Cr=disaster+reduction&Cr1
http://www.dailystar.CO.UK/news/view/169577/Winter-may-be-coldest in 1000 years. Thus with an almost certainty, from this newspaper site naming “officials” of a weather bureau,t’would seem amongst those who call the globe warming some are teetering on the edge of the unreality.That is this years winter in Dear Old England is colder than a warm period of some other related measures involving some serious length of time..So the bets are definitely off.AGW theorising will end with its teeth kicked in..at least in Britain.[ Thanks to Alex Jones for this one,and previous to JeffRense].
1. Cheap, ubiquitous electric cars.
2. The further and rapid decline of the coal industry.
3. The slow rising of Africa, fuelled in part by demand for cheap labour that China and India can no longer supply the same way, and in part by resources. This will probably be precipitated by a war the west or other superpowers leap or are dragged into.
4. Further legalisation of marijuana in the United States in one form or another.
5. No resolution whatsoever in Israel and Palestine.
oh and bonus, though I think 2020 may be a mite early for this:
6. Property booms based on projected climate change resilience, e.g NZ and Tassie.
I saw Julia perform an astonishing feat of speechmaking and public performance on Dec 28th at the South Australian Proclamation Day ceremony, shortly before cutting short her Christmas holiday with her parents to zoom on up to the Queensland floods. I predict she will hang on and claw her way back up the polling cliff.
My prediction: climate change will be at the forefront of real class struggle politics.
I’m going to go with most of what JohnD predicts along with
Towards the end of the decade high speed rail link between Sydney Canberra and Melbourne gets under way by Chinese interests.
India has a nuclear accident which is inititially blamed on Pakistan terrorists. Not many people die intitially but a large area is contaminated.
Algal oil becomes a medium success in 6 years time aided by rising oil prices, and finally with major government investment from Europe.
Distributed electricity generation becomes a runaway success in Europe but US and Australia fail to invest in smartgrid distribution systems. Austalia’s electricity becomes more expensive with very little substantial Renewable investment until 2018 when federal government steps in after an early election to take control in the face of public outcry.
Australia struggles to cope under an increasing flow of natural disasters which create insurance mayhem.
Australia experiences several major earthquakes.
Drought does not return generally but farmers struggle to cope with weather variability.
Ross River fever becomes a new problem for NSW, and malaria begins to become a problem for mainland Australia.
2019 methane releases from the Artic accelerate dramatically and governments finally realise that the trigger point has passed and rather than significantly change positions alter to adaption policies which are mostly misguided.
The US falls into severe recession. China provides aid.
Russia joins the European union as a special member state cluster.
Asia considers a Euro backed future.
Harvard University is downgraded as legal and commercial studies become less desireable amoungst young future professionals facing climate challenges. A new era of commercial savy science based technologists become the neuvo rich. New York creates its first technology based university and achieves early acclaim, altough a worsening US economy drives the brightest abroad, mostly to South America.
Israel is globally condemmed for its treatment of Palestineans and many Israelies are charged with crimes against humanity. Iran threatens nuclear action against Israel to ditract its people from a devasted economy following a series of earthquakes.
Maldives start to experience the effects of water innundation in the lowest atol islands in 2019 and beyond.
Africa descends into chaos forcing China in 2018 to take an active roll in attempting to establish stability in some areas.
@p.a. travers,
2010 was the hottest summer on record in NYC (and the 4th hottest across the USA as a whole), in Russia, in Japan. Hundreds died in heatwaves in India’s hottest summer on record. The whole northern hemisphere was full of news about the unprecedented broadly extending and long lasting heatwaves of July 2010.
If this winter is indeed the coldest seen in Britain for centuries, that chilly little landmass does not outweigh the far greater mass of the warming oceans; especially since increased seasonal variation in Britain especially (due to disruptions in the Jet Stream and decreased thermohaline circulation in the Gulf Stream) is a predicted effect of increased GLOBAL temperatures.
For most of the next ten years, Australia will be governed by the Conservative Coalition.
Pet rocks won’t make a comeback.
Julian Assange will be in gaol.
Australia will export more coal in 2019 than they did in 2010.
Australia will lose a bid to host the 2048 World Cup to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The Afghan Taliban will be using drones.
Melbourne will have a larger population than Sydney.
Germany will have control of the European financial system.
People will still be arguing about the existence of AGW.
People will have hangovers on 01/01/2020.
Unrealistic predictions about life ten years in the future will continue to be made.
Politics -Australia will probably have a conservative government after the next Federal election, but it will be led by Malcolm Turnbull, not Tony Abbott. If the Libs are still led by Abbott, Julia will br re-elected, if not Bill Shorten will be the next Labor PM.
Both major parties will join in a viscious campaign to reduce the influence of the Greens especially, and possibly, even, other minor left wing parties. They will be too scared or just plain unwilling, to challenge the Xtan right.
Economy – Australian economic orthodoxies will lean again towards Keynesianism, regardless of party ideology, because of economic collapse in Europe. We will see the end of the Europian Union.
Foreign Affairs/Defence – Australia will attempt a delicate balancing act between the Us and China. It will be one of our major foreign affairs pre-occupations.
There will be a massive terrorist attack in the US, worse than 9/11.
The US will invade Pakistan to get rid of Al-Queda once and for all after that attack.Naturally, we will be there. Immense and successful pressure will be put on Saudi Arabia to stop financing Al Queda.
Iran will not get a nuclear bomb.
The situation between Israel and the Palestinians will remain the same. Not until about 2025 will the Muslim population of the USA be sufficiently politically influential to change policy.
Health – a cure for HIV AIDS, Much better treatment of Alzheimers. A cure for some cancers, but utter and complete inability to make any progress whatever on some others.
Technology etc. – Facebook gets bigger and even more complicated. Until we run out of internet addresses. The US, in combination with other countries interested in the limiting of access to information, including China, tries to find someway to control the internet . Internet addresses become provisional. If the content is too critical or exposes the existing ruling elite it is immediately shut down, as agreed by international agreement.
Julian Assange goes to gaol.
3D movies become the technological flop of the decade because of the damage caused to people’s vision.
The construction of a colony on the moon is begun but is too expensive to keep going.
Climate Change – Government’s still refuse to act responsibly. The masses are incapable of forcing Government action. We begin to realise the world is completely, utterly doomed and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.
Culture – Shakespeare remains the most popular writer on earth.
And a few more:
1. We find a way of managing the economy that doesn’t depend on endless growth.
2. We deal with work shortages by sharing the work instead of pushing people on to unemployment benefits.
3. A cure for dementia and diabetes will be found.
4. Taxes are set to provide the services we need instead of services being set to match tax targets.
5. The government removes the Reserve Bank control of interest rates and accepts that inflation control is about more than interest rates.
6. we rediscover the idea that trade should be about win/win and replace the WTO with an organization that understands this.
7. We find a way to reduce the power of swinging voters in marginal seats.
8. We ask ourselves what we would do if our families were stuck in a refugee camp.
9. Assagne awarded the Order of Australia.
Rob – hope you’re right on climate change, but sounds like you’re tightrope-walking with the optimists on that one! Much depends on the political complexion in the United States, and I think its fair to say that at some point during the coming decade we are going to see an anti-Obama backlash.
India already seems much more interested in 20-20 than test cricket, so I think your last prediction may already be well on the way to coming to pass.
Can I add “peak iron” to the comments about “peak oil”? We’re fast running out of the easily extractable high-grade deposits really. It will be interesting to see whether the global economy can continue to expand at such a rate without cheap building materials.
I second the comment about a property boom in the temperate regions of the planet…
Also: next major war will be over water. Something like China damming all the major rivers which flow into SE Asia, followed by major civil unrest in the countries down-stream.
Yes, its always better to make long-term rather than short-term forecasts – if only because no-one will remember hem in decade, whereas someone might remember last year’s prediction for 2010
.
I’m a realist:
- in 2020 thre is still no enforceabl;e international ageement in pricing carbon, despite the effects of warming becoming obvious even to the most ignorant.
- instead, the self-righteous affluent everywhere go for incredibly expensive and quite ineffective gimmicks, and govermnents respond by making compulsory less expensive but equally ineffective gimmicks. All because there is no price on carbon that makes it in every (humble or self-righteous, affluent or poor) carbon user’s interest to seek effective and cheap ways to cut their carbon footprint.
- Prime Minister Abbott seeks a fourth term, with a campaign about brown foreigners infiltrating the main opposition party (the Greens, of course) and proposing new “anti terrorism” measures to deal with it. He accuses Indian asylum seekers of endangering our relations with our Great and Powerful Friend to our north.
Princess Mary’s twins will turn nine.
PA Travers and Tig Tog @ 27
I have posted this before but an increase in average temperature of the globe by 1 degree K increases the stored energy in the system by about 1e27 Joules. This is a vast amount of energy. ( I could be in error by an order of magnitude but you get the picture)
What it does is that it drives the oscillatory parts of the weather (cyclones, typhoons,heat-waves, cold snaps) to larger peak amplitudes; thus you can get record high temperatures and record low temperatures, depending upon the season, these are driven by this extra energy.
The long term average temperature continues to rise and the magnitude of the oscillations will also increase until even the dumbest denier will have to admit that something is amiss. By then it will be too late, probably..
Huggy
In ten years my back gate will probably need a little oil.
This year will be the same as the last, next year will be more of the same and the year after that and the year after that.
Smuggles won’t get the cigar and Turnbull will fall for yet another Grechgate email, duck responsibility for the resulting fiasco again, proving once and for all that he is still the same arrogant, political halfwit he always has been.
Batteries will be good enough that cars with a substantial electric range are rountinely sold without tax incentives or subsidies. Internal combustion engines will still be prolific.
Nuclear power will generate a higher proportion of our electricity. Coal will still be king.
Tony Abbott will have come and gone as PM. In 2020 somebody that nobody currently suspects will be PM.
Trade unionism will be mostly irrelevant in politics.
School principles will have the power to hire and fire and will have much more say in school budgets.
Australian federalism will remain broken.
Democracy will be more prevalent in the middle east.
Africa will be emerging as a new centre of economic growth.
Some people will be vocally worried about the low level of global fertility.
People will still argue about AGW. CO2 emissions will be higher than today in absolute and per capita terms.
Australia will remain amongst the most rich and most free nations on earth. A lot more of us will be asian.
Seasteading will have happened in a modest way.
In 10 years time, PJ, you will be still looking around the neighbourhood for your back gate which will have been ripped off and sucked away by a mini tornado that just misses your house.
Africa will be China’s cheap, dirty engine (and heatsink – win-win!).
Australia will have a good cricket team.
All but the hard-core deniers’ rump will have accepted the reality of AGW, just in time to reluctantly conclude that it’s too late to do anything about it.
Wisecracking robot butlers will be commonplace.
Wisecracking robot butlers? Pfft.
I’m still waiting for my first nuclear-powered car.
But I must say that my imagination is stimulated by wisecracking robot butlers.
Any suggestions about its favoured wisecracks and instantly recognisable catchphrases?
Jess, how much are you prepared to bet on that?
I’d take a wager, but if you really believe it stick some money in Rio, Fortescue and BHP and you’ll make a mint.
The USA will still be in The Greater Depression, precipitated by President Palin’s declaration of war on China (2013).
Prime Minister Shorten, maintaining the special powers granted him by referendum in 2018, has united the conservative forces behind him and thoroughly thrashed the Greens at the last election (2019) when most Greens candidates were declared “Potential Terrorists” and detained in Nauru.
The Doctor Who Christmas special features Rupert Murdoch, who, revealed to be Santa Claus, helps the Good Doctor destroy the Daleks once and for all to the cheers of billions of children around the world and at Bransonville, the lunar settlement. (News Limited now owns the ABC following the final act of Senator Conroy before accepting his ambassadorship to United States of Europe.
I’m happily settled in the Gerald Henderson Home for the Slightly Bewildered where I’m plugged into my nourishing drip and where my Virtual Reality headset enables me to travel to the most delightful places.
Katz – I should hope that the WRBs in our future are adaptive to their environment to a certain extent.
Mine would vary his schtick around the themes of:
>weary resignation to my personal failings, tinged with grudging respect for my better qualities (hidden under bland bonhomie where possible)
>self-deprecation expressed through technological/electronic metaphor
>endlessly inventive cocktail recipes
@Robert Merkel – I think that money in BHP and Rio iron ventures is a pretty sure bet. They already have a monopoly on the supply of iron ore – just watch them become the next OPEC (IPEC?) over the next few years. I’m not sure what the exact state of their banded-iron formation supplies are but they are definitely chewing through them at a fairly high rate.
What will be interesting will be to see whether China can monopolise many other raw minerals as they have with some rare metals like indium (from ~$90 in 2002 to over $1000 in 2008 – anyone want to put a figure on what a flat screen monitor might cost in 2020?). It’s quite funny to see them get so angry when Rio/BHP apply the same trading thumbscrew techniques they like to use on others.
Still, it will be interesting to observe the advances in recycling technology ramp up (e.g. vanadium from old roading metal) as we find we can’t take stuff out of the ground like we used to. I wonder what the landfill rate in 2020 might be?
Dystopia shall reign supreme:
Written nearly 80 years ago, as true now as it was then, and likely to remain so for at least the next decade.
Are fireworks a replacement for spoof/gasm? can this be the answer to rampant population growth? Nup, but I predict a transfer of show-off me better than you firework displays to cooler, wetter times after half a state burns down.
Cybernetic Wildeanisms.
Tough ask.
I presume that Bill Gates will have nothing to do with this project.
“Re: 2020, quite unfair to see China rise as a threat, my belief is the year of ASEAN + China, or simply Global Corporation of Anglo-US and European call CHINA + 1.
Western identity including Australian Anglo-Celtic pre-dominant here will be receded and content as “the old baby-boomers” Welfare recipient rely on “Health Care” “Nurses and Doctors” from overseas mainly Indo-Asiatic background. That’s my view as a refo-migrant from Vietnam since 1979. Pardon my “straight-talking” about this scenario ! Been here long enough to experience the “doom and gloom” . Cheers.
I know it sounds like a big ask Katz, but I’ve suffered through decades of waiting already, while silly devices proliferate around me.
This one is important, and hardly anyone seems to be working on it.
Spelling and grammar principals will go completely to hell.
2020 will see China and US + European + Russia needs to maintain “the global war” against the radical belief of Islam included “Indonesia or Malaysia, or Somalia…” because that’s the trade balance to maintain the global industrial defence by these Corporations as a means for “TRADE” as any commodities by these global Corporation (mind you China has a strong interest in this trade too…). : )
In poorly weaved syntax baskets, one supposes.
“weaved”?
Now I don’t even know who’s making proper mistakes.
Stop it.
<blockquote<Spelling and grammar principals will go completely to hell.
How come nobodies mentioned, punctuation?
Not to mention a complete inability to do HTML tags properly.
Sorry, FDB, I know you said stop it. And I should have listened to you.
What a wondrous web we weave when its woven by weavers weaving worrying about the weft and warp of woven wear.
Couldn’t help myself.
China can monopolise many other raw minerals as they have with some rare metals like indium
Man, I’ve heard this rare earth canard repeated so many times this year. Despite the name, China does not have a monopoly on the supply of rare earth minerals, they are widely spread.
China can process them a lot cheaper than other places, because of low wages and lower safety standards. Were the Chinese to push the price too high, the rest of the world would simply start mining it elsewhere.
Also regarding the price of Iridium, it has never been over $1000 in price, and also whilst it’s certainly higher now than it ever has been, this is due more to the nature of a highly speculative commodity in the wake of a major stockmarket bust. Look at the prices of gold, silver etc to see the same.
Good one, Peta.
I do not think that the decade should be refered to as the 2010s but rather as the 20teens.
@patrickg I’m not talking about iridium, i’m talking about indium (atomic number 49 not 77).
Indium is much rarer and China has bought up the world’s supply (i.e. controlling stakes in mines where it is produced, not just in China, although around 50% of the world’s indium supply is produced in China). It’s mostly found as a byproduct of zinc refining (so supply is pretty much tied 100% to zinc production), and there’s not much known about it’s metallogenesis. I’ll agree that Iridium is much more widespread and thus less amenable to some kind of oligopoly development.
The boost in indium price really came about 5 years ago with the widespread development of flat-screen LCD panels etc, and it spiked above $1000/kg in 2005, which was followed by a huge slump in price during the financial crisis in 2008-09 when consumption of these products disappeared. As far as I can tell it’s currently selling for around $550/kg, although it should be noted that Indium isn’t traded on any exchange as far as I’m aware so determining the prices here should be taken with a huge grain of salt. These prices are also for the ‘raw’ 99.7% pure metal only, not the final processed product which is much more expensive.
Both indium and iridium are needed for the production of OLEDs, to whit:
(pulled from here). Indium is also interesting in that it’s also important in the development of flexible copper-indium-gallium-selenide solar panels, which is one of the next-gen ‘efficient’ photovoltaic energy sources (which operate at about 10% efficiency).
I still submit that these rare minerals will play a fairly important role in the sorts of techonologies that we can develop by 2020, given that their sources are controlled by a very small group of companies and/or countries.
Oops, I can’t do HTML tags very well either it seems. Sorry!
Jess, I fixed the comment formatting.
On the substantive issue, in the past when these discussions come up there’s often the assumption that there’s no substitute for the rare metal concerned. That’s often turned out to be incorrect upon further investigation.
In 10 years time, PJ, you will be still looking around the neighbourhood for your back gate which will have been ripped off and sucked away by a mini tornado that just misses your house.”
Indeed BilB indeed.I will probably also need a little lanolin for my dry scrotum.
Apart from that, if anything is left in ten years apart from a lot of stains from the tears over our future that is becoming bleaker by the day, I will be much surprised.
For the morons who think it will be business as usual, they are are going to be even more surprised.
@Robert, thanks for sorting that out.
I think that you’re right about finding substitutes for these rare metals – there is a lot of research going into ways that we can replace these with more commonly occurring substitutes. I just don’t know how fast that research can become reality. Ultimately we are up against a short time frame of diminishing resources in many cases, which becomes shorter as demand increases.
That’s why my money would be on recycling technology – at some stage we won’t be able to get anything more out of the ground easily, so we’ll just have to make better use of what we’ve got.
My apologies, Jess, that makes a lot more sense.
Quite right Jess @ 38/57. My guess for 2011 and beyond is a lot of privatising/selling landfills. Any follower of base metal prices lately will notice tin (Sn) ‘through the roof’.
All those buried circuit boards with the little spots of solder from all that e-waste. You don’t have to be into rare earths. The London Metal Exchange reports attempts to corner the market for copper may be behind recent price moves upward.
I’ll take a different tac. In 2020 Australia will still be grappling with the effects of the deepest recession in 40 years. In 2017, China, like each rapidly growing East Asian country before it, experienced a prolonged slump due to the accumulated misallocated of investment over the previous decade. China’s downturn led to a sustained collapse in commodity prices, resulting in Australia’s terms of trade falling back to the levels of the mid-1980s. Although Australia receives some offset from a significant dollar depreciation, it isn’t enough to prevent a general collapse in Australian housing and equity prices, and a rapid fall in business investment and consumption. As the unemployment rate increases towards its early 1990s levels loan default rates increase precipitously and the Australian banks are revealed to be in much worse shape than previously thought by APRA and the RBA. The deleveraging cycle makes the downturn even worse. Australia’s political and policy establishment is at a loss at how to cope with the crisis. 20 years of policy complacency had left Australia’s underlying productivity growth very week and international investors were no longer prepared to fund Australia’s current account deficit. Poor economic conditions and little prospect of near-term improvement encourages the country’s xenophobic tendencies, which had been evident even during more buoyant times, to become even more pronounced. A party with echos of the One Nation party from the 1990s rises, but in a more dangerous form as it is led by a more sophisticated ex-coalition politician.
@Pablo This might be O/T, but do you have a link to the LME report about copper prices? My google-fu is failing me…
There is enough material there, Robert, to make a pretty entertaining movie.
Ok, thanks pablo. I found the article in the Economist. They suspect JP Morgan Chase is the holder of ~80% of the copper stored on the LME. Scary when you think what power that gives them over a metal which is pretty much second after gold.
You’re a cheery fellow, LO. I’m inclined to agree (broadly).
Continued population growth, the effects of climate change, aquifer depletion, soil degradation and sky rocketing fuel and fertiliser costs will result in regular food shortages, food riots and even civil war in less developed nations.
In the west, the phrase “grocery stress” (or similar) will very shortly join “mortgage stress” on TT and ACA.
Ever higher costs for fresh food will result in even more highly processed, nutritionally devoid crap being eaten by less well off folks, we will see more malnutrition and diet related disease.
Many developed countries will be unable to afford to provide all of the services their citizens have come to expect. Public health, education, amenities and law enforcement will be cut to the point where they are only provided at an absolute minimum level.
(Good examples being Detroit who already have plans to cut police patrols and garbage pick-up to 20% of the city, and the UK who are cutting public spending by 20%, w/welfare, local councils and police budgets being hardest hit)
The majority of young people who don’t yet own their own homes still wont.
Aging populations in western countries will put a huge strain on hospitals, and many of you who are thinking you will get to retire in the next few years will get a rather unpleasant surprise.
I also think we will see a LOT of small wars break out all over the globe.
Cheery enough for ya, DI(nr)?
LO, I think that’s a really interesting prediction.
Oh noes! My plans are in disarray!
LO is always a bit more optimistic that I am, BTW.
I really wish I shared this level of optimism. Personally I’m more pessimistic. I think in 2010 the government will meddle more than necessary in all these things.
What to look forward to in personal transportation this coming decade
http://www.gizmag.com/electric-vehicle-survey-reveals-consumer-preferences/17418/?utm_source=Gizmag+Subscribers&utm_campaign=97ca68d115-UA-2235360-4&utm_medium=email
By 2020 xenophobic tendencies will be present only among those who are physically and socially isolated.
They won’t be able to be used to mount any sizable political campaign.
The PC will only be used by geriatics.
Unfortunatley I think blogging will go the same way.
“I really wish I shared this level of optimism. Personally I’m more pessimistic.”
To be totally honest, so am i.
I was tempted to give the same prediction for the next decade that i gave some Jehovah Witnesses that used to visit my property.
Q: What is your vision for the future?
A: My vision for the future involves several billion people falling prey to disease, starvation and cannibalism.
Duncan, you’ve misunderstood TerjeP (perhaps deliberately). He’s a glibertarian, so any government interference in our lives is teh evil.
The question is, Duncan, how much cannibalism is acceptable to you? what are you going to do to prevent that happening. Does a macheti Riwandan style finality appeal to you? or would some positive political action make more sense?
Consider offering your creative problem solving abilities to Brian’s “climate crunch, the fierce urgency of now” discussion. I’m imagining that your avatar is representative of personality and age, so this is your battle. Get into it.
Yes, i must confess i misunderstood Terj deliberately DI(nr)
Speaking of misunderstanding..
Bilb, where have i come across as approving of this outcome?
Im afraid of what the future holds, whatever gave you the idea that “a machete Rwandan style finality” would appeal to me?
Happy to join on the climate crunch thread, but ill be in and out all day as we are building new yards and a loading ramp today.
“I’m imagining that your avatar is representative of personality and age”
Id be curious to know what you think you can ascertain about me by looking at my avatar Bilb.
Duncan, I am not suggesting that you approve of being demised in that way, I am asking how hard and what way are you going to strive to prevent it happening to both you and me.
Your avatar? I would think that it reflects the way that you see your self, intellectually. Or not.
And it seems that you are a farmer. Worthy of great respect, the toughest of all industries.