I’m keeping an eye on the Guardian election blog while working. Elections seem to be events made for live blogging. You can feel a sense of the excitement of the count. Latest news – Labour’s majority appears certain to be well below the party’s comfort zone, which will put a real constraint on Blairite policy, with up to 40 Labour MPs who’ve previously opposed Blair in Parliament expected to be re-elected. Expelled Labour MP George Galloway, damned as a Saddam appeaser, may have the last laugh – he’s ahead in Bethnal Green & Bow. [Galloway won] Many Labour MPs are reporting that anger over the Iraq War has made a real impact on their vote, a contention which is being downplayed by the Labour leadership – who are attributing the slump in the vote to the Tories’ immigration campaign – but which has some support from exit polls.
Elsewhere: There’s a non-Labour left election blog at the site of Red Pepper magazine. The BBC has a useful graphic page where you can follow key seats.
Update: The Howard/Crosby dogwhistling on immigration has led to a (neo-fascist) BNP bark in at least one constituency and Labour in London are being caught between the twin shoals of anti-immigration sentiment and anti-war sentiment.
Further update: I’ve argued in a number of posts that the Lib Dem vote will be worth watching. It would seem that the Lib Dems have done better against Labour than against the Conservatives, benefitting from some massive anti-Labour swings. This will change the complexion of the Lib Dem parliamentary party, and also have an impact on their strategic positioning in the next term. It’s also more evidence of the Blair backlash, over Iraq and other issues.
Interesting to see the Lib Dems picking up a seat from an anti-war Labour MP.
Swinging voters go all the way with LDs: The Lib Dem candidate, Sarah Teather, has been re-elected in the inner London seat of Brent East, which she took from Labour in a 2003 by-election. Swing against Labour from the 2001 election – 30.3%.
Net Lib Dem gains stand at 11 as of 4.57am UKT, with a national swing of about 4.2%. Leader Charles Kennedy is right to say that three-party politics have arived in the UK. It was unprecedented that the last few weeks of the campaign were devoted to attacks on the Lib Dems from both Labour and Tories.
In the Ozblogosphere: Tim Dunlop provides updates and commentary. Wrap-up posts: John Quiggin sees Brown as a winner and Crosby as a loser. Nic White says hurrah for Blair.
Labour wins [4.23am UKT] and Michael Howard concedes.
…but not by much: If I’m reading the graphic correctly, Labour has a maximum majority of 41, with 80 results still to be finalised as at 4.45am UKT. [Note - I wasn't. Figuring out the majority is harder than it looks.]
Latest: Lib Dems take 2 more seats off Labour, for a total of 12. Jonathan Freedland in The Guardian has some balanced commentary, arguing that Parliament will matter more, the Blair gloss was definitely peeled off, and New Labour found it hard to retain the left and right wings of its electoral coalition:
The second New Labour belief to take a hit last night was the strategy of the big tent. The original Blair triumph was to make his party a coalition so capacious it had room for the left and right, stretching from Tony Benn to former Tories.
Yesterday the coalition came under strain from both directions. Its left flank peeled off, dismayed by the Iraq war, by tuition fees, by the assault on civil liberties, by the erosion of trust in the prime minister. Those voters wandered out of the tent into the arms of the Lib Dems and others.
But there was pressure from the right, too. The Conservatives blew their dog whistle on immigration and asylum and, in parts of the country, voters who had moved from Conservative to Labour in 1997 pricked up their ears and ran back home. Peterborough, Putney and Ilford North slipped from red to blue.
As of 5.31am UKT, the Labour majority stands at 35, with 60 results still to come.
Blair to blame, argues Polly Toynbee. The slump in Labour support began on “the terrible road to Baghdad”.
Where to now? is the question all three parties have to face, according to electoral analyst blogger Lewis Baston. There are mixed signals galore. And in other news, Tony Blair enjoys a 6.30am love-in. Happy birthday, Tony.
FINAL UPDATE: As of 8.24am UKT, the Tories have won 36 seats and lost 3. There are only 26 seats yet to declare. This includes the 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland where counting begins later – and where the UK parties don’t run candidates.
Labour’s majority at the moment is 61 and a figure between 60-70 is at the lower end of projections.
Party; Seats; Gained; Lost; Held
Labour 353 1 46 352
Conservative 195 38 3 157
Liberal Democrat 59 15 7 44
Others 12 4 2 8
Party; Share of vote so far %; Swing %
Labour 36.3 -4.3
Conservative 33.2 +1.5
Liberal Democrat 22.5 +4.3
Others 7.9 -1.4
Ken Parish at Troppo argues that the Crosby/Textor marginal campaign strategy made a difference. I think this is a big call at this point, and this is what I said in response:
(a) Labour lost 12 seats to the Lib Dems, with a few very close near misses. Some of the swings were very high – ranging from 15 to 30%. Many of the constituencies in question had a very educated and presumably liberal antiwar vote, but there were also constituencies in far less advantaged inner urban areas which went Lib Dem. Nevertheless, these losses and near losses, and exit poll results show that Iraq did damage Blair badly.
(b) New Labour tried to do the crime/immigration thing to a lesser degree, and arguably at one stage were trying to get to the right of the Tories on crime. Therefore it’s difficult in the absence of detailed survey results to come to see how much of the increased Tory vote was related to these issues. It’s just as reasonable to see it as a natural correction of the electoral pendulum where many constituencies whose demographics incline them to the Tories returned home after two Labour landslides.
(c) The Lib Dems pioneered targetting of marginals in the early 90s. Just as the Tories have copied Australian and Republican techniques, so have Labour copied Democrat ones. I remain to be convinced that Crosby and Textor had that much of an impact.
(d) As a reality check for the Tories, their current figure of 195 (with perhaps a few more to come) MPs is still less than Labour’s low point of 209 MPs after the SDP split and under Michael Foot’s leadership in 1983. On the figures as at 8.24am, Labour have 158 more members in the Commons than the Tories. It’s hardly the comeback they would have wanted. Reaction within the Tory party to Crosby’s strategies will tell us a lot.
(e) Looking at the swings in the nationwide vote, the Tories only gained 1.5% for a total of 33.2% – far below their 20th century average of 44%. Labour lost 4.3% of its vote, and the Lib Dems improved their position by 4.3%. That wouldn’t be a straight transfer but the Tories certainly failed to capitalise on a long term government with a PM who’d well and truly lost his sheen
Blogosphere postmortems [7.5.05]: Tim Dunlop and Andrew Bartlett both take aim at the UK’s deeply flawed electoral system.
The BNP have increased their vote by 5% in this Yorkshire electorate too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/622.stm
(that MP is the brother of a friend of mine).
The BNP have increased their vote by 5% in this Yorkshire electorate too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/622.stm
(that MP is the brother of a friend of mine).
Headline (triple-decker):
Anglophone World Backs Wars of Liberation
Blair Becomes Third Coalition Leader Successfully Re-elected
Peace Movement Routed Worldwide
Headline (triple-decker):
Anglophone World Backs Wars of Liberation
Blair Becomes Third Coalition Leader Successfully Re-elected
Peace Movement Routed Worldwide
You’re channelling Peter Mandelson, C.L.! That’s about the best spin one could put on the result. Note – “successfully” as opposed to “resoundingly” – 31 seats lost and counting.
You’re channelling Peter Mandelson, C.L.! That’s about the best spin one could put on the result. Note – “successfully” as opposed to “resoundingly” – 31 seats lost and counting.
LOL, C.L. The Labour Party won, but Blair is on the way out.
LOL, C.L. The Labour Party won, but Blair is on the way out.
Some nice gains for the Conservative Party.
Still no news on the loathsome George Galloway.
Some nice gains for the Conservative Party.
Still no news on the loathsome George Galloway.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4467147.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4467147.stm
Actually, he’s just gotten in.
Actually, he’s just gotten in.
So, what’s the thinking on the next big contest? Yes, on behalf of the worldwide peace movement, truth in government, the post-Howard era and all things good and virtuous, this evening the Mighty Tahs are gunna flog the bejesus outta the land of Bahnisch and Currency, without mercy. The banjos will be quiet in brisvegas tonight.
So, what’s the thinking on the next big contest? Yes, on behalf of the worldwide peace movement, truth in government, the post-Howard era and all things good and virtuous, this evening the Mighty Tahs are gunna flog the bejesus outta the land of Bahnisch and Currency, without mercy. The banjos will be quiet in brisvegas tonight.
Sounds like a rather heated campaign!
Sounds like a rather heated campaign!
My response was to Graham’s comment but it might also serve as a response to Chris!
My response was to Graham’s comment but it might also serve as a response to Chris!
Boo for Galloway.
Oh well, at least we’ll have a clown to be mocked for the next five years.
Boo for Galloway.
Oh well, at least we’ll have a clown to be mocked for the next five years.
hey, Evil, we already had one …
here, puss
hey, Evil, we already had one …
here, puss
Wow, Galloway’s on the BBC feed now. What a dick.
Wow, Galloway’s on the BBC feed now. What a dick.
A very unresounding victory for Blair – if I’m reading the graphic correctly, Labour has a maximum majority of 41, with 80 results still to be finalised as at 4.45am UKT.
A very unresounding victory for Blair – if I’m reading the graphic correctly, Labour has a maximum majority of 41, with 80 results still to be finalised as at 4.45am UKT.
higher than that isn’t
they’ve won by a country mile
higher than that isn’t
they’ve won by a country mile
It’s now looking to be around 60. But let’s not forget that the electoral system is deeply flawed, and Labour has taken under 37% of the vote – the slimmest margin by a winning party for a long time.
It’s now looking to be around 60. But let’s not forget that the electoral system is deeply flawed, and Labour has taken under 37% of the vote – the slimmest margin by a winning party for a long time.
You know, in Australia Galloway would be the proud owner of the title “Labor Rat”, slightly worse than the mark of Cain. It’s a shame they don’t have such tribal denominators in the UK.
You know, in Australia Galloway would be the proud owner of the title “Labor Rat”, slightly worse than the mark of Cain. It’s a shame they don’t have such tribal denominators in the UK.
In 1942 Galloway would be known by a name that would get him hanged.
In 1942 Galloway would be known by a name that would get him hanged.
He had a majority of a 160 before the election, .. and right now he has lost 45, with 46 still to count. He has 344 to a combined number of 244 so he has a majority of a hundred right now. If they continue to win on the current ratios, he will have 379 out of 646 seats, which is a majority of 112, which is rather better than predicted.
Or am I muddled about the doubling thing?
He had a majority of a 160 before the election, .. and right now he has lost 45, with 46 still to count. He has 344 to a combined number of 244 so he has a majority of a hundred right now. If they continue to win on the current ratios, he will have 379 out of 646 seats, which is a majority of 112, which is rather better than predicted.
Or am I muddled about the doubling thing?
David, what you need to do is to clarify how it works is look at the BBC graphic which shows that Labour would lose its overall majority in the Commons if it lost 80 seats. You halve the majority to work out how many seat losses it takes to lose a majority, and you take into account the fact that other parties can lose seats to each other and Labour.
Make sense?
If you keep refreshing the Guardian main election page you’ll get a picture of the current state of the Labour majority and the number of outstanding seats.
The Labour majority is now 49, with 44 results to come.
Most pundits were saying 70-100.
David, what you need to do is to clarify how it works is look at the BBC graphic which shows that Labour would lose its overall majority in the Commons if it lost 80 seats. You halve the majority to work out how many seat losses it takes to lose a majority, and you take into account the fact that other parties can lose seats to each other and Labour.
Make sense?
If you keep refreshing the Guardian main election page you’ll get a picture of the current state of the Labour majority and the number of outstanding seats.
The Labour majority is now 49, with 44 results to come.
Most pundits were saying 70-100.
1:22pm WAST:
LAB 351
CON 191
LD 59
613 of 646 seats declared
1:22pm WAST:
LAB 351
CON 191
LD 59
613 of 646 seats declared
They dont seem to be holding election in Northern Ireland either, which is interesting but will have no impact on the result and none of the major parties ever win there.
They dont seem to be holding election in Northern Ireland either, which is interesting but will have no impact on the result and none of the major parties ever win there.
Big swings against Labour in many places. Political and parliamentary life in the UK will be a lot more interesting in the next 4 years – it’s good to see a change – Tony (or Gordon) may have to negotiate with MPs much moreso!
This election is an incredible distraction from work.
Big swings against Labour in many places. Political and parliamentary life in the UK will be a lot more interesting in the next 4 years – it’s good to see a change – Tony (or Gordon) may have to negotiate with MPs much moreso!
This election is an incredible distraction from work.
Yes, they are, Nic but they don’t begin counting immediately after the close of the polls.
The only way it could make a difference though – since effectively Northern Ireland has a different party system is in the case of a hung Parliament. When Major lost his Commons majority, he had to rely on Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland.
Historically, the Ulster Unionists took the Tory Whip until 1972, and dominated Westminster election results before the Troubles.
Yes, they are, Nic but they don’t begin counting immediately after the close of the polls.
The only way it could make a difference though – since effectively Northern Ireland has a different party system is in the case of a hung Parliament. When Major lost his Commons majority, he had to rely on Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland.
Historically, the Ulster Unionists took the Tory Whip until 1972, and dominated Westminster election results before the Troubles.
It could be a win-win-win.
Labour wins government, Tories and LibDems win extra seats.
It could be a win-win-win.
Labour wins government, Tories and LibDems win extra seats.
Roger that Mark.
Roger that Mark.
I think the chance of Blair getting rolled in the next 3 months is about 50%. They needed him for the election, now they don’t need him anymore.
I think the chance of Blair getting rolled in the next 3 months is about 50%. They needed him for the election, now they don’t need him anymore.
Well, he said he’d stand down this term, but yes, EP, I think there’ll be a lot of pressure for him to go soon.
Well, he said he’d stand down this term, but yes, EP, I think there’ll be a lot of pressure for him to go soon.
Conservatives gain Ludlow from LD.
1:54pm WAST:
LAB 351
CON 192
LD 59
614 of 646 seats declared
Conservatives gain Ludlow from LD.
1:54pm WAST:
LAB 351
CON 192
LD 59
614 of 646 seats declared
Once and for all, it can be stated as fact: the war on terror and in Iraq have been mandated by the citizenry of the world’s greatest democracies.
Remarkable.
Mighty Reds to beat Christopher’s lah-de-Tahs.
Once and for all, it can be stated as fact: the war on terror and in Iraq have been mandated by the citizenry of the world’s greatest democracies.
Remarkable.
Mighty Reds to beat Christopher’s lah-de-Tahs.
The Times sees big trouble ahead for Tony.
The Times sees big trouble ahead for Tony.
L@@k! It’s Furious George!
L@@k! It’s Furious George!
C.L. – I don’t think so. Iraq was hardly an issue in the Australian election, which was won on experience and economic policy, and in the UK, to the degree it mattered, it counted against Labour.
None of these elections was a referendum on the war in Iraq.
C.L. – I don’t think so. Iraq was hardly an issue in the Australian election, which was won on experience and economic policy, and in the UK, to the degree it mattered, it counted against Labour.
None of these elections was a referendum on the war in Iraq.
Interesting to see the difference between the exit polls and the actual results. LD and CON are up with LAB down. Others are about the same.
Labour holds Sheffield Attercliffe.
2:04pm WAST:
LAB 352
CON 192
LD 59
615 of 646 seats declared
Interesting to see the difference between the exit polls and the actual results. LD and CON are up with LAB down. Others are about the same.
Labour holds Sheffield Attercliffe.
2:04pm WAST:
LAB 352
CON 192
LD 59
615 of 646 seats declared
2:14pm WAST:
CON gain Croydon Central from LAB, CON hold Norfolk Mid, LAB hold Selby.
LAB 353
CON 194
LD 59
618 of 646 seats declared
Vote share: Vote share: LAB 36.3% CON 33.1% LD 22.5% Other 8.0%
2:14pm WAST:
CON gain Croydon Central from LAB, CON hold Norfolk Mid, LAB hold Selby.
LAB 353
CON 194
LD 59
618 of 646 seats declared
Vote share: Vote share: LAB 36.3% CON 33.1% LD 22.5% Other 8.0%
Dunno about Crosby’s black arts, suspect Iraq – Lib Dem % gain is suspiciously close to the Labour loss. The Tories have probably raked up the BNP vote to their right, only a 1.7% increase.
So, roll out the welcoming committee at Sydney airport for Lynton. I say if he floats, he’s a witch.
Dunno about Crosby’s black arts, suspect Iraq – Lib Dem % gain is suspiciously close to the Labour loss. The Tories have probably raked up the BNP vote to their right, only a 1.7% increase.
So, roll out the welcoming committee at Sydney airport for Lynton. I say if he floats, he’s a witch.
Re Nic’s figures:
Labour 36.3% = 353 seats
Con 33.1% = 194 seats
My maths is bad, but -
An extra 3.2% = 159 seats?
Seems strange. Is that what you get with first past the post?
Re Nic’s figures:
Labour 36.3% = 353 seats
Con 33.1% = 194 seats
My maths is bad, but -
An extra 3.2% = 159 seats?
Seems strange. Is that what you get with first past the post?
Looks like it.
Looks like it.
First past the post always massively over-represents the party with a plurality of the popular vote.
First past the post always massively over-represents the party with a plurality of the popular vote.
Hmm. I think we do it better over here.
Hmm. I think we do it better over here.
No argument there – and we have the Senate to provide (some) element of PR.
No argument there – and we have the Senate to provide (some) element of PR.
“Once and for all, it can be stated as fact: the war on terror and in Iraq have been mandated by the citizenry of the world?Äôs greatest democracies.
Remarkable.”
LOL. I mean, let’s see; Blair is looking like a dead man walking after watching his party’s majority dilate to seriously levels, a virulently anti-war campaigner has won a East London seat (even though even I think he’s an opportunist and a disgrace: check this if you’ve got RealAudio.) and this somehow equates as approval of the war?
Not a fact, C.L., not a fact. Mere conjecture on your part.
“Once and for all, it can be stated as fact: the war on terror and in Iraq have been mandated by the citizenry of the world?Äôs greatest democracies.
Remarkable.”
LOL. I mean, let’s see; Blair is looking like a dead man walking after watching his party’s majority dilate to seriously levels, a virulently anti-war campaigner has won a East London seat (even though even I think he’s an opportunist and a disgrace: check this if you’ve got RealAudio.) and this somehow equates as approval of the war?
Not a fact, C.L., not a fact. Mere conjecture on your part.
Thanks for the link Graham. That guy is seriously alarming.
Thanks for the link Graham. That guy is seriously alarming.
Well that’s the bunfight over for another 4 years. Labour lost a bit, the Tories gained bugger all and Howard said he is going to quit sooner rather than later. Not a bad result, as soon as Brown takes over we might get the red flag flying once more.
Well that’s the bunfight over for another 4 years. Labour lost a bit, the Tories gained bugger all and Howard said he is going to quit sooner rather than later. Not a bad result, as soon as Brown takes over we might get the red flag flying once more.
Who’d be a banana bender tomorrow? Hoo doo smashed to pieces in the great showdown at sydney footie stadium, and the band’s playin’ waltzin’ matilda, as the Mighty Tahs go marching on …
Who’d be a banana bender tomorrow? Hoo doo smashed to pieces in the great showdown at sydney footie stadium, and the band’s playin’ waltzin’ matilda, as the Mighty Tahs go marching on …
“One of the world’s greatest democracies” shows what a farcically unfair (and thus not really democratic) electoral system it has, giving comfort to authoritarian pretend-democracies the world over.
Whilst Labour has lost a decent swag of seats, it has still won around 55% of the seats with about 36% of the votes cast — from an overall voter turnout of about 60%. That means they received a vote from less than a quarter of the voting population of the UK, yet will govern with a majority of 61 seats over all the other parties combined. Receiving the support of fewer than 25% of the population hardly strikes me as a resounding endorsement for the ‘liberation’ of Iraq, even if you do want to suggest that is the main reason people would have voted Blair/Labour.
To look at it from another perspective, the Tories result — portrayed as only a little better than disastrous — was about 33% of the vote compared to about 36% for Labour, yet they won about 30% of the seats compared to Labour?Äôs 55%.
The big losers from the farcical system are the Liberal Democrats — a vote of nearly 23% yet still fewer than 10% of the seats. I think their results are very disappointing, despite the modest gain in seats.
Of course, the need for tactical voting and not ‘wasting’ your vote on a minor party makes it hard to assess the full extent of the unfairness from the raw figures. There will have been millions of people who voted for their second (or third) favoured party to stop their most hated from winning, and an unknown number of others who may otherwise have voted for a smaller party but didn’t want to give up their chance to affect who won and voted for one of the larger ones instead.
- and people try to draw conclusions about mandates and support for (or against) specific policies out of a voting system like that!?!
It baffles me that people seem to be willing to live with such a patently absurd and undemocratic system and that such blatant unfairness receives such minimal comment in amongst all the election analysis.
“One of the world’s greatest democracies” shows what a farcically unfair (and thus not really democratic) electoral system it has, giving comfort to authoritarian pretend-democracies the world over.
Whilst Labour has lost a decent swag of seats, it has still won around 55% of the seats with about 36% of the votes cast — from an overall voter turnout of about 60%. That means they received a vote from less than a quarter of the voting population of the UK, yet will govern with a majority of 61 seats over all the other parties combined. Receiving the support of fewer than 25% of the population hardly strikes me as a resounding endorsement for the ‘liberation’ of Iraq, even if you do want to suggest that is the main reason people would have voted Blair/Labour.
To look at it from another perspective, the Tories result — portrayed as only a little better than disastrous — was about 33% of the vote compared to about 36% for Labour, yet they won about 30% of the seats compared to Labour?Äôs 55%.
The big losers from the farcical system are the Liberal Democrats — a vote of nearly 23% yet still fewer than 10% of the seats. I think their results are very disappointing, despite the modest gain in seats.
Of course, the need for tactical voting and not ‘wasting’ your vote on a minor party makes it hard to assess the full extent of the unfairness from the raw figures. There will have been millions of people who voted for their second (or third) favoured party to stop their most hated from winning, and an unknown number of others who may otherwise have voted for a smaller party but didn’t want to give up their chance to affect who won and voted for one of the larger ones instead.
- and people try to draw conclusions about mandates and support for (or against) specific policies out of a voting system like that!?!
It baffles me that people seem to be willing to live with such a patently absurd and undemocratic system and that such blatant unfairness receives such minimal comment in amongst all the election analysis.
Andrew, there’s some analysis of the unfairness of the electoral system at Guardian election blog.
Interestingly, I was dipping into a book on Labour and constitutional reform and it appears that Brown may have a more genuine commitment to democratic reform than Blair. But it’ll be the politics of the situation that dictates any move (the last proposed change was Preferential Voting in single member electorates) – I think it’ll depend on where Labour’s popularity is in the lead up to 2009 and if they have to offer the Lib Dems a carrot in case of not being able to achieve a majority in the Commons.
Oddly, the Scottish Parliament mixes first past the post single member constituencies with a separately ballotted alternative list.
Andrew, there’s some analysis of the unfairness of the electoral system at Guardian election blog.
Interestingly, I was dipping into a book on Labour and constitutional reform and it appears that Brown may have a more genuine commitment to democratic reform than Blair. But it’ll be the politics of the situation that dictates any move (the last proposed change was Preferential Voting in single member electorates) – I think it’ll depend on where Labour’s popularity is in the lead up to 2009 and if they have to offer the Lib Dems a carrot in case of not being able to achieve a majority in the Commons.
Oddly, the Scottish Parliament mixes first past the post single member constituencies with a separately ballotted alternative list.
I agree with Andrew that the result seems quite unfair, in terms of number of seats won for percentage of vote gained. How can 3.2% more of the vote translate to an extra 160 seats? I’m baffled as well. Not unhappy with the result, I would probably have voted Labour or Lib Dem, but the figures look totally weird.
Good thing though that one of the willing coalition got punished at the polls.
I agree with Andrew that the result seems quite unfair, in terms of number of seats won for percentage of vote gained. How can 3.2% more of the vote translate to an extra 160 seats? I’m baffled as well. Not unhappy with the result, I would probably have voted Labour or Lib Dem, but the figures look totally weird.
Good thing though that one of the willing coalition got punished at the polls.
If you consider the “war supporter vote” to be Labour plus Tories, that’s a total of 69% — a great endorsement of the Iraq action.
The people who really lost this one were the anti-war mob, who have now bombed out in all three English-speaking democracies that went to war.
If you consider the “war supporter vote” to be Labour plus Tories, that’s a total of 69% — a great endorsement of the Iraq action.
The people who really lost this one were the anti-war mob, who have now bombed out in all three English-speaking democracies that went to war.
Yep dump Tony, bring on Gordo.
From what I gather all over the place, which includes having drunk a few times with blokes who drink with him, Gordon Brown is quite different kettle of fish to Tony. None of this new age, ‘thirdwayspeak” nonsense – he’s apparently offscreen rather more of a two-fisted, poetry-quoting product of the Scottish Enlightment. From Glasgow to Edinburgh U to Downing Street.
Or as it was put to me one boozy nite, “He’s already the UK’s most powerful Celt since Lloyd-George.”
NB: Macmillian doesn’t count.
Yep dump Tony, bring on Gordo.
From what I gather all over the place, which includes having drunk a few times with blokes who drink with him, Gordon Brown is quite different kettle of fish to Tony. None of this new age, ‘thirdwayspeak” nonsense – he’s apparently offscreen rather more of a two-fisted, poetry-quoting product of the Scottish Enlightment. From Glasgow to Edinburgh U to Downing Street.
Or as it was put to me one boozy nite, “He’s already the UK’s most powerful Celt since Lloyd-George.”
NB: Macmillian doesn’t count.
If you consider is a big if, given that heaps of Labour voters voted Labour despite their disagreement over the war and that the Tory position was ambiguous and certainly not liked in Washington. In any case, an election is not a referendum so adding the Labour and Tory votes together when they are competing for government is a nonsense.
If you consider is a big if, given that heaps of Labour voters voted Labour despite their disagreement over the war and that the Tory position was ambiguous and certainly not liked in Washington. In any case, an election is not a referendum so adding the Labour and Tory votes together when they are competing for government is a nonsense.
“The people who really lost this one were the anti-war mob, who have now bombed out in all three English-speaking democracies that went to war.”
So far it’s only the poor bloody Iraqis that have any real reason to feel bombed out.
“The people who really lost this one were the anti-war mob, who have now bombed out in all three English-speaking democracies that went to war.”
So far it’s only the poor bloody Iraqis that have any real reason to feel bombed out.
Tks Nabs. Yeah, that’s my mail.
Tks Nabs. Yeah, that’s my mail.
I think that’s polishing it a bit, Evil, with respect.
Whatever one thinks of the war, it was launched on the basis that Saddam’s WMD were a clear and pressing danger to the west. Then it turned out he didn’t have them. OK , maybe he shipped them to Syria or somewhere, but the fact is that the putative justification for the war was not made out. I think all three leaders deserved to lose on that count alone. I still can’t believe that Howard and Bush suffered no electoral damage. I’m glad Blair got back in but I’m also glad he got a hell of a mauling.
I think that’s polishing it a bit, Evil, with respect.
Whatever one thinks of the war, it was launched on the basis that Saddam’s WMD were a clear and pressing danger to the west. Then it turned out he didn’t have them. OK , maybe he shipped them to Syria or somewhere, but the fact is that the putative justification for the war was not made out. I think all three leaders deserved to lose on that count alone. I still can’t believe that Howard and Bush suffered no electoral damage. I’m glad Blair got back in but I’m also glad he got a hell of a mauling.
Other people don’t share that view, Rob.
The war was not just about WMD, it was about a lot of things. And the verdict of the public is in — all three leaders were returned, despite the sustained campaigns against them by the anti-war mob.
So I would call this a big victory for international democracy and a bloody nose for leftism.
Other people don’t share that view, Rob.
The war was not just about WMD, it was about a lot of things. And the verdict of the public is in — all three leaders were returned, despite the sustained campaigns against them by the anti-war mob.
So I would call this a big victory for international democracy and a bloody nose for leftism.
Evil, you crack me up.
Evil, you crack me up.
I don’t have your skills for making up eccentric political nicknames that nobody else uses, cs, but I do what I can.
I don’t have your skills for making up eccentric political nicknames that nobody else uses, cs, but I do what I can.
You’re doing OK Mr Pee. I understand. I appreciate your efforts. The grand council will reconsider your case in due course. Sleep peacefully.
You’re doing OK Mr Pee. I understand. I appreciate your efforts. The grand council will reconsider your case in due course. Sleep peacefully.
What did Gorgeous say in the interview that causes us all offence? He barely got a word in. Or are we going on the background. Of which I know nothing. Except that I’m automatically in his court because he picked a fight with the human cardigan.
What did Gorgeous say in the interview that causes us all offence? He barely got a word in. Or are we going on the background. Of which I know nothing. Except that I’m automatically in his court because he picked a fight with the human cardigan.
It was advertised as being about WMD. OK, we’re grown-ups, we can see there was more to it than that. I don’t subscribe to the ‘ooh, they lied’ view of things, and I think they truly believed – albeit wrongly – that Saddam had them stockpiled. But if you invade a country on a particular pretext and trash it, killing an awful lot of people (maybe not 100,000, but still too many) in the process, and it turns out your pretext was a really, really bad mistake, you deserve to get blow-torched, if democracy’s worth anything.
It was advertised as being about WMD. OK, we’re grown-ups, we can see there was more to it than that. I don’t subscribe to the ‘ooh, they lied’ view of things, and I think they truly believed – albeit wrongly – that Saddam had them stockpiled. But if you invade a country on a particular pretext and trash it, killing an awful lot of people (maybe not 100,000, but still too many) in the process, and it turns out your pretext was a really, really bad mistake, you deserve to get blow-torched, if democracy’s worth anything.
“…big victory for international democracy and a bloody nose for leftism.”
I suspect Evil Pee that your definition of democracy doesn’t have much in common with those you don’t want to want to share the planet with. I’ll give you credit though, you’ve stopped short of suggesting those who disagree with you should be liquidated…so far.
“…big victory for international democracy and a bloody nose for leftism.”
I suspect Evil Pee that your definition of democracy doesn’t have much in common with those you don’t want to want to share the planet with. I’ll give you credit though, you’ve stopped short of suggesting those who disagree with you should be liquidated…so far.
wbb, it is the background. Galloway (it seems) deliberately incendiarised a strongly Muslim electorate to vote against a Jewish MP.
wbb, it is the background. Galloway (it seems) deliberately incendiarised a strongly Muslim electorate to vote against a Jewish MP.
“maybe not 100,000″
even bodycount is showing over 20,000 now
if there are 20,000 confirmed civilian deaths, then 100,000 total war deaths is not a stretch in anyway
“maybe not 100,000″
even bodycount is showing over 20,000 now
if there are 20,000 confirmed civilian deaths, then 100,000 total war deaths is not a stretch in anyway
“Once and for all, it can be stated as fact: the war on terror and in Iraq have been mandated by the citizenry of the world?Äôs greatest democracies.”
Finally it can be stated as fact: CL has recognised that the war on terror and the war in Iraq are separate and he may one day recognise that one was used as a pretext for the other.
Seriously though, did anyone expect Blair not to win with the benefit of encumbency, a so-called strong economy and the lack of a credible opposition? It’s what got Bush and Howard across the post (well maybe Bush’s economy was shot but when did you last hear any American conceding to that.)
“Once and for all, it can be stated as fact: the war on terror and in Iraq have been mandated by the citizenry of the world?Äôs greatest democracies.”
Finally it can be stated as fact: CL has recognised that the war on terror and the war in Iraq are separate and he may one day recognise that one was used as a pretext for the other.
Seriously though, did anyone expect Blair not to win with the benefit of encumbency, a so-called strong economy and the lack of a credible opposition? It’s what got Bush and Howard across the post (well maybe Bush’s economy was shot but when did you last hear any American conceding to that.)
Im mainly happy to see Crosby leaving town with a sore arse. It was a crap effort by the Tories, a lame result, hidden only by anti-war swing against Blair. At the end of the day they’ve embarrassed themselves by stooping to the level of our RWDBSs.
Listen here, Pom, we’re the lowest, most pathetic shit-eaters in town… so forget emulation. It wont pay…noone has less self-respect in the face of scare-mongering bullshit than us. And i think we’ve just proved the point. When it comes to right wing fear campaigns, noone, but noone buys bullshit like a little Ozzie battler.
Im mainly happy to see Crosby leaving town with a sore arse. It was a crap effort by the Tories, a lame result, hidden only by anti-war swing against Blair. At the end of the day they’ve embarrassed themselves by stooping to the level of our RWDBSs.
Listen here, Pom, we’re the lowest, most pathetic shit-eaters in town… so forget emulation. It wont pay…noone has less self-respect in the face of scare-mongering bullshit than us. And i think we’ve just proved the point. When it comes to right wing fear campaigns, noone, but noone buys bullshit like a little Ozzie battler.
Speaking of Lynton Crosby, I saw a few articles (including by Cheryl Kernot) during the UK campaign talking about how the Conservatives were doing a lot of locally targetted “nasty party” stuff, alongside the nationwide, broad brush attacks on refugees, migrants and gypsies, but I hadn’t seen anything specific.
I was just going through a few of the blogs by UK MPs and found an example on the blog of retiring UK Lib Dem MP Richard Allan – http://www.richardallan.org.uk/?p=366 – talking of an advert where the Conservatives drew links between the Lib Dems wanting a ‘dog tax’ and the Lib Dem Leader being Scottish and haggis being made out of dog meat, etc. One must allow for possible partisan exaggeration, but if it’s true it’s pretty out there.
As an aside, there’s quite a lot of reasonable blogs by UK MPs – pity Australia doesn’t have the same.
Speaking of Lynton Crosby, I saw a few articles (including by Cheryl Kernot) during the UK campaign talking about how the Conservatives were doing a lot of locally targetted “nasty party” stuff, alongside the nationwide, broad brush attacks on refugees, migrants and gypsies, but I hadn’t seen anything specific.
I was just going through a few of the blogs by UK MPs and found an example on the blog of retiring UK Lib Dem MP Richard Allan – http://www.richardallan.org.uk/?p=366 – talking of an advert where the Conservatives drew links between the Lib Dems wanting a ‘dog tax’ and the Lib Dem Leader being Scottish and haggis being made out of dog meat, etc. One must allow for possible partisan exaggeration, but if it’s true it’s pretty out there.
As an aside, there’s quite a lot of reasonable blogs by UK MPs – pity Australia doesn’t have the same.
The political dynamic of Northern Ireland is quite removed from that of the rest of the UK (which is a bit curious in a way, seeing they’re so keen on being part of the ‘mainland’), so I’m not sure if the results there have any real linkage to Blair, Iraq, etc .
However I’ve just seen that David Trimble, the Leader of the Ulster Unionists, has comprehensively lost his seat – http://politics.guardian.co.uk/hoc/constituency/0,9338,-1387,00.html – which is very significant in its own right, seeing as he has been such a key figure in the intermittent progress of the Northern Ireland peace accord.
The political dynamic of Northern Ireland is quite removed from that of the rest of the UK (which is a bit curious in a way, seeing they’re so keen on being part of the ‘mainland’), so I’m not sure if the results there have any real linkage to Blair, Iraq, etc .
However I’ve just seen that David Trimble, the Leader of the Ulster Unionists, has comprehensively lost his seat – http://politics.guardian.co.uk/hoc/constituency/0,9338,-1387,00.html – which is very significant in its own right, seeing as he has been such a key figure in the intermittent progress of the Northern Ireland peace accord.
Galloway (it seems) deliberately incendiarised a strongly Muslim electorate to vote against a Jewish MP.
She’s black, Rob.
Galloway (it seems) deliberately incendiarised a strongly Muslim electorate to vote against a Jewish MP.
She’s black, Rob.
From The Guardian today:
Labour’s final majority is 65.
And from the Tories:
From The Guardian today:
Labour’s final majority is 65.
And from the Tories:
I?Äôll give you credit though, you?Äôve stopped short of suggesting those who disagree with you should be liquidated
Liquidating those who don’t agree with you is a Leftist tactic. See Mao, Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, Castro, Pol Pot, Guevara, etc, etc …
I?Äôll give you credit though, you?Äôve stopped short of suggesting those who disagree with you should be liquidated
Liquidating those who don’t agree with you is a Leftist tactic. See Mao, Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, Castro, Pol Pot, Guevara, etc, etc …
On the subject of liquidating people who disagree with you, yesterday was the third anniversary of the murder of Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn by a left-wing activist.
When Leftists talk about political violence and suppression of dissent, they’re usually projecting their own inclinations onto others.
On the subject of liquidating people who disagree with you, yesterday was the third anniversary of the murder of Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn by a left-wing activist.
When Leftists talk about political violence and suppression of dissent, they’re usually projecting their own inclinations onto others.
Rob, my apologies, apparently she’s black and of part-Jewish descent.
Rob, my apologies, apparently she’s black and of part-Jewish descent.
Yeah Andrew, the UUP got so badly decimated, losing 5 out of 6 seats. What happened there?
Yeah Andrew, the UUP got so badly decimated, losing 5 out of 6 seats. What happened there?
They’re caught between a rock and a hard place – moderation doesn’t sell when passions rise. Trying to make the peace process work makes them a target for all sorts of irresponsible attacks from the DUP.
They’re caught between a rock and a hard place – moderation doesn’t sell when passions rise. Trying to make the peace process work makes them a target for all sorts of irresponsible attacks from the DUP.
Did anyone see the Jeremy Paxton/George Galloway stoush on BBC?
JP: We’re joined now from his count in Bethnal Green and Bow by George Galloway. Mr Galloway, are you proud of having got rid of one of the very few black women in Parliament?
GG: What a preposterous question. I know it’s very late in the night, but wouldn’t you be better starting by congratulating me for one of the most sensational election results in modern history?
JP: Are you proud of having got rid of one of the very few black women in Parliament?
GG: I’m not – Jeremy – move on to your next question.
JP: You’re not answering that one?
GG: No because I don’t believe that people get elected because of the colour of their skin. I believe people get elected because of their record and because of their policies. So move on to your next question.
JP: Are you proud -
GG: Because I’ve got a lot of people who want to speak to me.
JP: – You -
GG: If you ask that question again, I’m going, I warn you now.
JP: Don’t try and threaten me Mr Galloway, please.
GG: You’re the one who’s trying to badger me.
JP: I’m not trying to badger you, I’m merely trying to ask if you’re proud at having driven out of Parliament one of the very few black women there, a woman you accuse of having on her conscience 100,000 people.
GG: Oh well there’s no doubt about that one. There’s absolutely no doubt that all those New Labour MPs who voted for Mr Blair and Mr Bush’s war have on their hands the blood of 100,000 people in Iraq, many of them British soldiers, many of them American soldiers, most of them Iraqis and that’s a more important issue than the colour of her skin.
JP: Absolutely, because you then went on to say “including a lot of women who had blacker faces than her”
GG: Absolutely right, absolutely right. So don’t try and tell me I should feel guilty about one of the most sensational election results in modern electoral history.
JP: I put it to you Mr Galloway that Nick Raynsford had you to a T when he said you were a “demagogue”.
GG: Sorry?
JP: Nick Raynsford. You know who I mean? Nick Raynsford. Labour MP?
GG: No, I don’t know who you mean.
JP: Never heard of him.
GG: I’ve never heard of Nick Raynsford, no.
JP: What else haven’t you heard of?
GG: Well, I’ve been in Parliament a long time…
JP: He was a Parliamentary colleague of yours until very recently.
GG: Well, most of them just blend one into the other, Jeremy, they’re largely a spineless, a supine bunch.
JP: Have you ever heard of Tony Banks?
GG: Yes I have, yes.
JP: Right, Tony Banks was sitting here five minutes ago, and he said that you were behaving inexcusably, that you had deliberately chosen to go to that part of London and to exploit the latent racial tensions there.
GG: You are actually conducting one of the most – even by your standards – one of the most absurd interviews I have ever participated in. I have just won an election. Can you find it within yourself to recognise that fact? To recognise the fact that the people of Bethnal Green and Bow chose me this evening. Why are you insulting them?
JP: I’m not insulting them, I’m not insulting you
GG: You are insulting them, they chose me just a few minutes ago. Can’t you find it within yourself even to congratulate me on this victory?
JP: Congratulations, Mr Galloway.
GG: Thank you very much indeed. [Waves, removes microphone]
Did anyone see the Jeremy Paxton/George Galloway stoush on BBC?
JP: We’re joined now from his count in Bethnal Green and Bow by George Galloway. Mr Galloway, are you proud of having got rid of one of the very few black women in Parliament?
GG: What a preposterous question. I know it’s very late in the night, but wouldn’t you be better starting by congratulating me for one of the most sensational election results in modern history?
JP: Are you proud of having got rid of one of the very few black women in Parliament?
GG: I’m not – Jeremy – move on to your next question.
JP: You’re not answering that one?
GG: No because I don’t believe that people get elected because of the colour of their skin. I believe people get elected because of their record and because of their policies. So move on to your next question.
JP: Are you proud -
GG: Because I’ve got a lot of people who want to speak to me.
JP: – You -
GG: If you ask that question again, I’m going, I warn you now.
JP: Don’t try and threaten me Mr Galloway, please.
GG: You’re the one who’s trying to badger me.
JP: I’m not trying to badger you, I’m merely trying to ask if you’re proud at having driven out of Parliament one of the very few black women there, a woman you accuse of having on her conscience 100,000 people.
GG: Oh well there’s no doubt about that one. There’s absolutely no doubt that all those New Labour MPs who voted for Mr Blair and Mr Bush’s war have on their hands the blood of 100,000 people in Iraq, many of them British soldiers, many of them American soldiers, most of them Iraqis and that’s a more important issue than the colour of her skin.
JP: Absolutely, because you then went on to say “including a lot of women who had blacker faces than her”
GG: Absolutely right, absolutely right. So don’t try and tell me I should feel guilty about one of the most sensational election results in modern electoral history.
JP: I put it to you Mr Galloway that Nick Raynsford had you to a T when he said you were a “demagogue”.
GG: Sorry?
JP: Nick Raynsford. You know who I mean? Nick Raynsford. Labour MP?
GG: No, I don’t know who you mean.
JP: Never heard of him.
GG: I’ve never heard of Nick Raynsford, no.
JP: What else haven’t you heard of?
GG: Well, I’ve been in Parliament a long time…
JP: He was a Parliamentary colleague of yours until very recently.
GG: Well, most of them just blend one into the other, Jeremy, they’re largely a spineless, a supine bunch.
JP: Have you ever heard of Tony Banks?
GG: Yes I have, yes.
JP: Right, Tony Banks was sitting here five minutes ago, and he said that you were behaving inexcusably, that you had deliberately chosen to go to that part of London and to exploit the latent racial tensions there.
GG: You are actually conducting one of the most – even by your standards – one of the most absurd interviews I have ever participated in. I have just won an election. Can you find it within yourself to recognise that fact? To recognise the fact that the people of Bethnal Green and Bow chose me this evening. Why are you insulting them?
JP: I’m not insulting them, I’m not insulting you
GG: You are insulting them, they chose me just a few minutes ago. Can’t you find it within yourself even to congratulate me on this victory?
JP: Congratulations, Mr Galloway.
GG: Thank you very much indeed. [Waves, removes microphone]
Jeremy Paxton and George Galloway are both in my sin bin as of now.
Jeremy Paxton and George Galloway are both in my sin bin as of now.
Yep, in their obnoxious behaviour they almost deserve each other.
Yep, in their obnoxious behaviour they almost deserve each other.
Franco, Pinochet, umm, that funny little guy called Hitler, do they sound familiar EP? Get off the grass…
Franco, Pinochet, umm, that funny little guy called Hitler, do they sound familiar EP? Get off the grass…
I saw a grab from the interview and I must say that Jeremy Paxton did come across as a very aggressive interviewer.
I saw a grab from the interview and I must say that Jeremy Paxton did come across as a very aggressive interviewer.
If you read the text Stephen quoted impartially, Paxton is way out of line, whatever Galloway is like.
If you read the text Stephen quoted impartially, Paxton is way out of line, whatever Galloway is like.
Hey, don’t go soft on George. He ran against a possibly Jewish opponent. And in a Muslim seat. And wasn’t he the bloke they found hidden in one of Saddam’s palaces at the end of the bombing of Baghdad?
He is definitely the same guy who insulted Greg Sheridan on Lateline a couple of years ago.
Hey, don’t go soft on George. He ran against a possibly Jewish opponent. And in a Muslim seat. And wasn’t he the bloke they found hidden in one of Saddam’s palaces at the end of the bombing of Baghdad?
He is definitely the same guy who insulted Greg Sheridan on Lateline a couple of years ago.
He is definitely the same guy who insulted Greg Sheridan on Lateline a couple of years ago.
Greg Sheridan should be insulted more often. But I guess he’s often too busy having Turkish government paid junkets to appear on Lateline.
He is definitely the same guy who insulted Greg Sheridan on Lateline a couple of years ago.
Greg Sheridan should be insulted more often. But I guess he’s often too busy having Turkish government paid junkets to appear on Lateline.