If anyone’s following the New Zealand and/or German elections, and the three by-elections in NSW (see Naomi’s post at wsacaucus.org), then you’re most welcome to post any relevant links or observations on this thread.
Update: [Via EP in comments] Official results of the NZ poll are here. Some brief commentary from John Quiggin on NZ.
Further update [8.38pm]: Looking pretty good for the cause of social democracy in the South Pacific. And Labor are ahead in all three NSW seats.
NZ result: I think Helen Clark is in a very good position to form a third term Labour government. If so, this will be an excellent result for Social Democracy, particularly given Clark’s principled stance and the nature of the National campaign. The big story is the polarisation of the electorate, with Labour losing only 1 seat and National gaining 22. The Greens only just fell over the representation line with 5.06%, and minor parties suffered. Interesting.
For analysis of the likely scenario under which Clark is able to form a government, see this story from the NZ Press Agency posted at John Quiggin’s.
On the right [added at 12.02am]: On the right side of the blogosphere, there is a pre-counting view by guest poster Stan at Communio e Liberazione. Tim Blair may have been premature in dubbing his post “The Siege of Helengrad”.
NZ Blogs covering the election: Many thanks to saint for this list.
Just in: Currency Lad, professing in any case to think the German election more important, claims that Helen Clark doesn’t have a “mandate or a mission”. Sour grapes. Majority governments are rare in PR systems (will he say that Ms Merkel doesn’t have a “mandate or a mission” if the CDU/CSU poll 40%?), Labour beat National, and her campaign themes were strongly articulated, rather than obscured by centrist spin. Menzies in 1963 and Bush in 2000 weren’t troubled by small margins of victory (and in both cases were outpolled by their principal opponent unlike NZ Labour) in governing strongly on the basis of their programme.
Sunday update: saint posts on the German election.
Monday update: John Quiggin has some comment on the German election result.
Nationals to win in NZ, CDU & free democrats to win in Germany with a lot of ‘influence from the FD, and a huge swing against thre ALP in NSW.
These are not predictions just hope for the countries and electorates.
It’s going to be close in Kiwiland.
We do have an early concession, though.
Nah kiwis always have their head in the sand!
Counting has begun.
Official results here.
your a good man EP and I don’t know why Im spread all that nasty stuuf behind your back,
yes I do your your Mark Latham!!!
Im just off to an NZ election party myself. This is what comes of having political junky mates. Now they’ve got cable Im expecting Ill finally get to beer up for the Faroe Islands regional elections.
National is ahead by 6%, but that’s with 4.4% counted. We’ll have to wait until at least 10% is counted before we can be more confident.
Based on my acute cs-like political senses:
Narrowest of victories (again) for Schroeder (Merkel’s shadow treasurer stumping for a 25% flat tax – not sucha great move methinks), National to win NZ (45% at 10% counted)
ALP to retain Maroubra and Macquarie Fields with biggish swings against, and unfortunately (for someone who voted Sam Byrne 1) the same for Marrickville, close but not close enough.
Looking good:
20% counted – National 45%, Labour 36%.
Clark’s goose is cooked!
Brash first rose in the polls when he started dogwhistling on the politics of race. For that reason, if for no other (and I’m sure there are lots of others but I don’t know too much about Kiwi politics), I hope he doesn’t win.
Brash promised to end racial apartheid in New Zealand. For that reason I hope he wins.
German polls here, scroll down to ‘German Election’ and ‘Interactive Flash Graphic’
Schroeder will not be taking part in a grand coalition with Merkel, so he says. Amazing how he has recovered from 10 or so points? down in such a short time.
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/spiegel/0,1518,archiv,00.html
Hals un beinbruch? (is that the spelling—stab in the dark) ‘break a leg’ to whoever has to do the necessary economic reforms
Could she still win if she joined with the Greens in a coalition?
Clark is coming back…
National ahead by 5% and 7 seats.
NZ Greens broke the magic 5% a few minutes ago! (yay team)
I found out today that their campaign director is none other than Russell Norman (yes Mark and Lefty, *that* Russell Norman).
Funny old world, innit?
“Could she still win if she joined with the Greens in a coalition?”
Unlikely – the Greens probably won’t outpoll NZ First.
What are NZ First’s policies? Other than wanting to put New Zealand.. uhh.. first?
Sorry… I know almost nothing about NZ politics.
Nats 51
Labour 48
NZ 1st 7
Green 6
Maori P 4
I’d say the Nats may have shot their bolt the way Labour is closing the gap
This is very interesting – Australia’s two-party preferred held up fairly strongly throughout (even having counted 20% or so). What booths are they counting?
The Nats have started going backwards. With 55% counted hopefully this is the trend that matters.
Labour + Greens + Maori are still 3 seats short at the moment. Add in Jim Anderton’s Progressives and they’re one seat short. Replace the Greens with NZ First and they’re sorted.
Likely? beats me.
d
Nats 50
Labour 48
NZ 1st 7
Green 6
Maori P 4
Other 7
61% counted.
Down to the wire is a fair description.
Mushroom, Labour and the Greens have been campaigning together as coalition partners.
NZ First – Winston Peters’ party – have said they won’t join either side in government but it could be interesting if he’s the kingmaker – they weren’t expected to poll as well. He was a former National Minister, but split from the party in bitterness.
The Maori party will probably win some of the 7 dedicated Maori seats, even if they don’t poll over the 5% threshold.
You have to remember that NZ has the MMP electoral system – adapted from the German system. People have two votes – one for their local member and one for the party of their choice.
Any party that gets over 5% is entitled to “list” seats. A party that wins at least one constituency seat will have its seats topped up to match its proportion of the vote.
So the percentages are indicative but the 5% threshold doesn’t necessarily imply that a party will get no representation – it will if it wins a constituency seat and/or one of the 7 dedicated Maori seats (which have traditionally been strongly Labour).
No joy for the Greens in Marrackville tonight – Big booths still to come, but Tebutt’s on 52% primary. If there’s any swing at all, it’s only a couple of per cent.
An extremely worrying trend in NZ is the Green vote softening. They’ve gone from 5.15 to 5.10 in the last half hour. As Mark indicated, if they drop below 5%, they get zero seats and the six the ‘have’ at the moment will probably go 3-3 Labor/National.
5.11 now, Darryl.
And Anderton’s party have 2.
Labour’s really closed the gap with National.
Be good to be watching this on the teev!
Nationals 40.94% 50 seats
Labour 39.58% 48 seats
That’s with 76% counted.
Looking at the minor party seats won at this point, the Greens are on 6, Maori Party on 4 and Jim Anderton’s Progressives on 2. That gives a likely figure for Labour supporting MPs as 60 from 120.
Which puts Winston Peters’ NZ First who have said they won’t enter a coalition in the poll position for determining who governs.
So I’d say it’s not looking too bad for Labour. Remember that Peters was a former National Minister and split from the party. He’s probably not still a big fan.
Very close!
I wonder what percentage are pre-poll or postal votes and how they’re handled in NZ.
If Peters holds the balance of power, he’ll play it for all it’s worth and we probably won’t know for some days or even weeks who will be on the government benches.
But if Labour and the other Left parties can get 1 seat ahead of all the rest, then it’s all over, red rover.
It’s down to the wire and will probably be decided by backroom deals between the two majors and the third parties. United Futures and ACT could be anticipated to go with National, the Maori Party, the Greens and the Progressive Party with Labour. NZ First has already indicated that it wont be in formal alliance with either National or Labour.
Winston Peters is an extraordinary guy. A Maori, a lawyer, an arrant populist a la Hanson but with far more grey matter…..
National and Labour now on 49 seats each.
MMF elections are very interesting to watch.
Yes, Geoff, Peters will relish this. Hard to say which way he will jump. You’d imagine as a Maori, he wouldn’t be sympathetic to Brash’s line on representation and treaty rights, but I don’t know enough to say.
“If Peters holds the balance of power, heÄôll play it for all itÄôs worth and we probably wonÄôt know for some days or even weeks who will be on the government benches.”
That’s exactly what he did in the first MMP election. BTW, it looks like he’s lost his seat of Tauranga but will no doubt be number one on the NZF List so will be back in parliament.
Yes, I recall how he kept people on tenterhooks.
Hey go easy on Pauline,at least she had the courage of her convictions,and the joint is a democracy.
Think it may be Labour but postal votes favouring Nats?
84% counted
49- Nat
49- Labour
7- 1st Nat
6Green
4 Maori
3
2
2
Do i smell a similarity as to Green position in N.Z. and a softening of vote in oz election? Fundamentalist group with lots of money damning them, just before election. Family First, then in N,Z., the “Exclusive Brethren”.
“Yes, Geoff, Peters will relish this. Hard to say which way he will jump. YouÄôd imagine as a Maori, he wouldnÄôt be sympathetic to BrashÄôs line on representation and treaty rights, but I donÄôt know enough to say.’
Winston’s support is largely from non-Maori older voters so he walks a fine line. He’s a social conservative – not fond of poofs, migrants and social engineering and that has some appeal amongst some Maori. Maori, BTW, can choose whether to be on the Maori or the general electoral roll and many choose the former.
Yikes! The Socialist Republic of Aotearoa rides again!
Mark – you were right and I was wrong. One shouldn’t get their hopes up if they don’t know the counting system.
BTW – does anyone know why National was so far ahead after 35% counted, but are all square now?
Acutally, Peter, I think the key is that the percentage figure is percentage of polling places counted rather than votes – 89.9% now.
So you’d have to assume, as in Australia, that the smaller booths report first – and the largest ones are urban. One would imagine, if things are similar, that would favour Labour.
What we need is a link to a good NZ political blog!
Labour 50, National 49.
So if that was the final result, Labour and allies would have 61 seats out of 120.
Oh well, looks like NZ will continue to fall further behind the civilised world.
A shame, really.
The implication also is that National is not in a position, if Labour and allies slip back to 60, to govern except as a minority government with Peters backing it only on votes of confidence – since he’s said he will not enter Cabinet or enter into a joint policy platform with either major party.
Looks like former Reserve Bank governors aren’t election winners.
Hope Bernie Fraser wasn’t planning to be the saviour of the ALP in Oz.
Mark – I tried to post, but it’s not working, am I on mod?
Doesn’t look like it, Steve, you might have been a false positive on the spam filter. Just check if there any words that sound like they might be sued by spammers, try to post again, and if it doesn’t work, email me the comment and I’ll post it for you.
mbahnisch at gmail dot com
Seems that Labor has won all three NSW seats.
Never mind, it was just a snide attack that might have included the words “People’s Republic of Aotearoa”.
Anyway, I think we know why the early results were so skewed:
Finance Minister Michael Cullen said the early results were skewed by the vote mostly coming from rural areas.
“We’ve got a long way to go tonight before we get a final result,” he told TVNZ.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,16634657-401,00.html
Yes, just like in Australia and America.
Evil Pundit has conceded defeat.
A green/labor coalition possible?
Wow
If only EP had sacrificed a promising career in blog commenting and campaigning against feminists, sperm thieves and Sweden for the greater good of the Tory cause, the result could have been different!
First ever pussycat PM!
It isn’t good news for NZ.
Their per capita GNP is already down to only two-thirds that of Australia.
They’ll be well on the way to third world status by the next election, and might not be recoverable.
“The implication also is that National is not in a position, if Labour and allies slip back to 60, to govern except as a minority government with Peters backing it only on votes of confidence – since heÄôs said he will not enter Cabinet or enter into a joint policy platform with either major party.
Looks like former Reserve Bank governors arenÄôt election winners.
Hope Bernie Fraser wasnÄôt planning to be the saviour of the ALP’
Hmmmm. Don’t know. The Maori party will be the big unknown. They formed on the back of opposition to Labour’s Foreshores Bill – the Maori seats used to be
heartland Labour and Maori aren’t uniformly “progressive” when it comes to a left of centre social agenda. Destiny, the party formed around opposition to Civil Unions legislation is heavily Maori and NZ First always picks up a substantial Maori vote.
Yeah, Geoff, but I really don’t think the Maori Party would put Brash into power. Judging by the stuff on Dateline the other night, they are majorly pissed off at him. They weren’t happy with Helen, but they were talking about defeating National as a must for the future of the nation and their people.
Having said that, I doubt they’d go into coalition so it might imply that a minority Labour/Greens government has to tread warily with progressive social legislation.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/plane-crashes-in-nz-election-night-air-drama/2005/09/17/1126750165881.html
A dramatic night, Mushroom, for the Kiwis!
The word “coalition” is being tossed around quite a bit tonight. FWIW I doubt (and this is a marginally informed doubt), that the Greens would join a Labour government. I suspect they will choose a “confidence and supply” arrangement, rather than enter cabinet with all the compromises that entails.
I’d have to check on this, Darryl, but my impression was entering a coalition was part of their campaign. But I may well be wrong.
I was just reading the Fin article on the NZ election, and it seems United Future which looks set to get 3 seats, supported Labour in the last Parliament. So assuming that stays the same, that puts Labour and its allies in a pretty good position – 64 out of 120 seats.
No doubt there’ll be some wheeling and dealing, but I think Clark is in a far better position to form a government.
The big story seems to be – when looking at the seats in the last Parliament – the polarisation of the vote. Labour held 51, now has 50. National only had 27 and now has 49. So the minor parties were the big losers.
The Greens only just fell over the representation line with 5.08%.
If Labour does form a third term government, this will be an excellent result for Social Democracy, particularly given Clark’s principled stance and the nature of the National campaign.
well winston has petersed out and Brash aint getting maoried in the morning
“Yeah, Geoff, but I really donÄôt think the Maori Party would put Brash into power.”
No, they won’t Mark. But their support for Labour will be very conditional. United Future is based around Peter
Dunne, a former Labour cabinet minister, who draws on Christian/family support. So….it’s a bit of a bargaining free-for-all I expect. I suspect that some days will pass before we have clarity, but I’d certainly expect Clark to form the next government.
Yes, like I said, Geoff, some aspects of their agenda will probably have trouble getting through parliament.
I really am intrigued by the polarised nature of the vote in an MMF system. UF went from 8 to 3 seats, ACT from 9 to 2, NZF from 13 to 7, Jim Anderton from 2 to 1, and the Greens have lost 3 seats and only just scraped over the line to avoid a total wipeout.
You need to look at the electorate vote and see how Kiwis vote. They get two votes – one for the electorate MP and one for their party preference. You often see quite a differential between the two which is, of course, indicative of strategic voting. For instance, John Tamihere, a former Labour cabinet minister got dumped from the Maori seat of Tamaki Makaurau in favor of the Maori Party candidate but the List vote went heavily to Labour.
It does seem to produce some odd outcomes, Geoff!
Helen Clark could well end up witn the luxury of having a centre option – NZF and UF – or a centre to Left option – Maori/Progressive – when it comes to forming a government. Barnaby Joyce should have been born into MMP…….
And what of the NSW seats?
Looking like all three to Labor, vee – see the link in the post.
Winston Peters – Don Brash has maintained his perfect record of never having won an election in his life.
Where are you all going for German election results? I’m watching some live streaming in English on Deutsche Welle, they also have some charts up when the counts start.
The incumbency to win again?
Less polarised than “first-past-the-post” though (the old NZ system) where a party can go from ‘comfortable governing majority’ to ‘the brink of oblivion’ in one election event (like the old Canadian Oxymoronic Conservative Party in 1992(? 1993?)
Or the Australian polarisation where we had a smidge of minor party representation in the 1940s and then one member for two years in the naughties.
There’s no historical data I can find on the election site, but what I think we’re seeing is voters returning to the major parties. Under MMP small ‘primary’ swings can easily move individual seats from the minor parties (which flows on to the list vote). There’s been a bit of that, like Winston Peters losing his seat. On the other side, losing ~0.8% of the ‘party list vote’ cost a seat. So I’m guessing that the Greens dropped from about 7.5% of the List vote to 5%. Of course, an additional 0.07% drop would have taken then from 9 seats to zero, so I’m firmly in the ‘glass half full’ department at the moment.
d
Phil, things have certainly seemed to go back Schroeder’s way, and if Merkel has to form a “Grand Coalition” then it will certainly moderate any neoliberal turn.
Interesting commentary in today’s Fin – Schroeder has had great success pointing to Katrina as an example of disorganised government and a deeply unequal society – since Merkel’s economic policy is supposed to emulate the “freer markets” of the US and the UK.
Polly Toynbee points out that a Katrina scale disaster in London would expose similar levels of post-Thatcherite poverty to that of the US.
I think that’s right, Darryl – both about the distortions in first past the post – and polarising elections when there are major differences between the big parties – witness the drop in the minor party vote here in 93 when Hewson and Keating faced off.
Darryl, two useful sites – Wikipedia on the 2002 NZ election and Adam Carr’s very useful election archive.
So, what is it chaps and chapseses? Social democracy up across the board?
The blacks won,,,in New Zealand and South Africa,,,,God bless the A
Lookin good, Chris!
Western Australia, UK, New Zealand.
That’s three LOSSES in a row for those race-bating haters Textor and Crosby. I believe there’ a direct flight back to Sydders, you lowlife pondscum.
They’re gonna have to start charging less. Not everyone’s as daft and easily led as an Aussie battler.
Just watched it all on Sky with some NZers in the know. Clark was magnificent -calling the vote a rejection of the politics of fear and division. Listen up Beazer.
Word from Kiwi apparatichiks: its not at all like Australia with OS votes, where they can favour the right. Votes coming in from the West Island (yes, thats us) will continue to massacre the Nats. Guaranteed. Its all over for Brash.
The one seat up is extremely important, as is the fact (noted by Darryl) that the Greens have held above 5%. Two minor parties pledged to support supply to the party with the most seats. Even if Peters is lying again, Brash has no one to talk to to get a majority. Game over.
You should have seen it – the small rural booths gave Nats hope, but their vote % plummeted second by second as the urban counts got into full swing.Woohoo!
And yes, Darryl, I knew Russell was in that role. He was originally alliance, split with the greens. Saw him last time I was in Vegas…
Hats off! Elbows up!
Just caught up with Darryl’s earlier comment about ex-Comrade Norman. I seem to remember we beat him by a rather large margin in an election once. Perhaps his campaign skills haven’t shifted as much as his politics have!
Woohoo!
I notice after EP’s early concession, the regular RWDBs haven’t been paying us a visit…
This is a strange site,,,I hope its not being censored.But it is late at night,,,If the left has won,,, good on them,,and democracy rules….I wish you well.God bless,the Germans,and the Nzeders,and all those who voted voted in the inner city of Sydney.If the left has won ,,,well the left has won,,,us conservatives will have to battle on.
Might even be worth having a squizzy at the BP archives, Chris, to revisit the post-election taunts that Lefties won’t even have NZ to escape to anymore.
Schroeder’s making a late run to the finish line, and Canada later in the year will be very interesting as well.
Well, thank you, Larado, and may your God go with you too.
No censorship here, mate.
He’s not the only ex-Trot Mark. Apparently the right-leaning leader of the United Future party can be counted there. Long time back.
Aaaaaah, this beer tastes good. Canada next in 2007.
Well, better they join the forces of niceness than stay in endless fourth international sectarianism, Lefty E…
Phil, didn’t Martin pledge to hold an election after the report into the Quebec scandals was finalised? I thought I read that they would go to the polls late this year or early next year.
Yes, friends, to paraphrase Keating ’93, using Clark’s words.
“this is the sweetest ‘opportunity to negotiate with minor parties to constitute a minority government’ of all”!
And btw, great electoral system. Way more democratic than ours. Love it.
Sorry, that should have read 2006, yep it’ll be a frozen day at the polls in January. They will win again.
In other news, guest poster Stan at C.L.’s place (writing before the result) calls Don Brash “New Zealand’s John Howard”.
NB – if anyone’s having trouble getting a comment posted, please email it to me:
mbahnisch at gmail dot com
I just noticed that the number of comments on the sidebar jumped but no new comment appeared, and there’s nothing in moderation.
There are still a few bugs in the comments database, I think.
Nope, Naomi – see comment above – please email it to me and I’ll post it.
Here’s the hoplessness of Brash’s circumstance: he now needs the Maori party to form government.
AS you might imagine, his chances here are slim….
Well, lets be frank: nil.
Zilch.
Nix.
Nada.
Pants.
BAHAH!!! Chew on that you race-bating Hansonoid arse-clown.
Kiwi blogs:
Sir Humphrey’s
Kiwipundit
Big News
NZ Pundit
Comments are off until midnight for legal reasons.
I wouldn’t be too optimistic about Germany. As Peter, I think, indicated, there is coverage and a poll graphic at Der Spiegel. The problem seems to be the new Left Party which is too left to be touchable by the SPD. The poll shows them tracking at 8%. I heard yesterday on the radio that they were at about a third of the votes in the old East Germany.
That means that the SPD and the Greens seem to be stranded on a combined 40% or thereabouts. Merkel and the CDU/CSU are on 41.5% to which they can add the right-wing FPD at 8%, still short of 50%.
This maks a hung parliament, in which case Merkel and the CDU/CSU are the senior party and the ‘Grand Coalition’ with the SPD comes into play. If that happens Schroeder says he’ll piss off and leave them to it.
This looks the likeliest scenario according to the experts I’ve been hearing, except that polls show that 25% of the electorate are yet to make up their minds.
Merkel’s treasurer’s flat tax probably can’t happen and it seems she has been a bit vague on specifics. But it looks as though she’ll follow Bush around as a default position and is stand-offish towards the Turks. Her biographer says she’s not very inclusive in style and it is a question as to whether she would last long.
Schroeder’s main talent, they say, is in winning elections, but I’m not sure that’s fair. He has strong resistance to ‘reforms’ from within and is stymied by the upper house.
Please be advised that I’m no expert, but hear Deutsche Welle’s ‘Newsline’ most days via News Radio.
There is some coverage at the BBC.
Brian, yes, I’ll be surprised if Schroeder wins, but it looks like the CDU/CSU/FPD won’t be able to govern and if a Grand Coalition is formed – then this will render a hard right turn impossible. Don’t forget that Schroeder is on the right of the SPD and normally only tacks left at election time – the reason why the Left Party formed in the West under his former finance minister Oskar Lafontaine.
Hmmm. Ill follow that the German result with interest.
I can offer one thing: I’ve got a few German pals, and they tell me the ballot box moment will be interesting here. They’re over Schroeder, but OTOH, the US and UK economies are NOT that appealing an idea to your average Euro (who, funnily enough, likes job security, high pay, and leave provisions – weirdos!). Its quite possible Merkel is Latham – and she’s gonna tank *real bad* when the wallet anxiety kicks in on ballot day.
Nur sagen….
Mind you, that’s 2nd hand scuttlebutt. Wouldnt have a clue meself.
Still , I’ll take NZ and NSW.
Victories have been few of late comrades – let us rejoice…
Yes, Mark and Lefty, that sounds about right, but the I think Merkel has left that flat tax thing hanging there to tap the hip-pocket nerve, though it is balanced by a putative increase in the VAT. How this is meant to get the German consumers going I can’t figure.
But as you say Mark, with the SPD on board there will be a few significant restraints on her.
I’ve heard some favourable reaction from industry chiefs about the prospect of a Grand Coalition. Presumably they think they’ll get some labour market ‘flexibility’ and some relief on wages/salary on-costs and nothing too revolutionary.
Just in: Currency Lad, professing in any case to think the German election more important, claims that Helen Clark doesn’t have a “mandate or a mission”. Sour grapes. Majority governments are rare in PR systems (will he say that Ms Merkel doesn’t have a “mandate or a mission” if the CDU/CSU poll 40%?), Labour beat National, and her campaign themes were strongly articulated, rather than obscured by centrist spin. Menzies in 1963 and Bush in 2000 weren’t troubled by small margins of victory (and in both cases were outpolled by their principal opponent unlike NZ Labour) in governing strongly on the basis of their programme.
They Can’t Say She Never Tried
TONIGHT, at the time of writing, it looks like Helen Clark of New Zealand has scraped together enough support to survive as prime minister within a coalition Labour government. It is not a moral victory and she rules now without a mandate or a missio…
I think my points are fair, Mark. The German election is more international than the Kiwi one. And I can’t see the New Zealand result as being in the least bit definitive. That’s not sour grapes – I’m pretty indifferent about it really. I just think it’s a fair call. Others may disagree.
It seems to me, C.L., and you make this point as regards Brash, that important issues were at stake. And Labour prevailed.
We must remember as well that a PR system doesn’t produce a 2PP like our electoral system. What was the Liberal primary vote in 01? Just around 40% I think from memory. Yet no one, to my recollection, claimed that Howard didn’t have a mandate.
I’m in somewhat agreement with CL.
there was a clear swing against the labour party.
The next government’s position will be tenous ( as the last OZ election should have been) with perhaps the Nationals forming a clear Government after the next election.
Does anyone know whether Winston peters will get back in via the list.
The best result of the election was him losing his seat.
“Does anyone know whether Winston peters will get back in via the list. The best result of the election was him losing his seat.”
He’s party leader Homer so he’ll be back in on the NZF list.
I think it’s going to be challenging for Helen Clark. National basically doubled it’s proportion of the vote from last time, three of the Maori Party MP’s are new and the party was formed on the back of intense hostility to Labour Party policy on ownership of the foreshore and seabed. United Future’s 3 MP’s – social conservatives – will be opposed to their perception of Labour’s “social engineering,” the Greens will be looking for the sort of concessions from Labour that the resurgence of National might indicate to be unwise and the 7 NZ first MP’s will be as problematic in terms of reliable support as they have been since the inception of MMP. You’d have to be cautious about predicting a full-term government out of this unpromising melange but Clark is undoubtedly the polititician who could pull it off – if anyone can.
At the least, National is in a good position for to take out Labour at the next NZ election.
I doubt that the arrogant elitist Clark will become any more popular over the intervening period.
EP – you’ll be happy to know the first thing she did in last night’s speech was to thank “mainstream New Zealand” for delivering her the largest party vote.
Which they did. Brash came in off a ludicrously low base of 20%, and essentially took all his increased vote from minor parties. Labour lost one seat.
So National went from a tiny party to being just one seat short of Labour in a single night. Not bad for a start.
Of course, there’s still 180,000-odd absentee votes to be counted, so things could still change. Then it will be up to the minor parties to give one side or the other the nod for government.
Hardly a resounding victory for Labour — it will be at least a week before they can even be sure it’s a victory at all.
There’s basically 20,000 votes and 1 seat between Labour and National but National would have to pick up the bulk of the 200,000 special votes to alter the outcome and that seems unlikely.
I note that Peter Dunne, the leader of UF, reaffirmed his party’s refusal to serve in any government that included the Greens and the Maori Party are pretty certain to insist on repeal of the foreshore legislation as their price for participation. Helen may yet have to
come to an agreement with Winston Peters.
Terry Lane plans to run something on last nights results in N.Z and more locally.Today, at 12.00 midday, on Radio National and repeated tomorrow.
Scott Parkin interview as well.
Sunday update: saint posts on the German election.
True Geoff – but that UF position is about a formal coalition with Greens – not a supply arrangement. In any case, the Greens would be wise not to enter the former, getting too tied to Labour wont help them electorally.
As I note above EP – local Kiwis who follow these things are saying Brash has about zero chance of doing well out of special votes. They always favour centre to left.
Yes, I’d say on balance Helen Clark has won this one.
One thing to watch though. Apparently, according to one NZ commentator, the green special vote was disproportionately high last election due to university holidays. So I’m not so sure they can rest easy about being wiped out just yet. That might make coalition building very interesting as well. Plenty to chew on for a week or so, I think.
Otherwise, I think Labour did well to maintain their base but it might be a difficult government with which to keep it.
Postcards to the Chancellor – a terrific insight into the German psyche, the scars of the East/West still in full view.
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,374773,00.html
Note the aesthetics of the porta-office.
Nice.
Schroeder to get up, narrowly, I hope.
more cliffhangers today
As the Germans go to the polls after Chancellor Shroeder’s extraordinary moves in May to call elections a year early. Angela Merkel, leading the conservative block (CDU/CSU) has lost much of her early lead. Her party backing – as I
Merkel’s squandered her poll lead. Its a go-nowhere dead heat.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/germany/article/0,2763,1573181,00.html
Its actually one of the CDUs worst % result ever.
bahaha! What a great weekend of comebacks for the centre-left. Kuss meiner linkische arsche, Merkel.
Clark would seem to be in a better position to cobble a supply arrangement together than Schroeder though.
Dear me, swearing in German (badly, I might add) prompts moderation these days?
Yes, no-one was predicting the CDP/CSU would barely top 35%.
And to the North, a Labour-led coalition has kicked out Norway’s conservative government and will withdraw Norway’s troops from Iraq.
Excellent – didnt follow that one.
‘Doorway to Norway’? Dear me….
Yes, unfortunate!
It seems that Norway has 10 officers stationed in Iraq.
I await the rants about cutting and running, deserting the brave Iraqi people in their hour of need etc.
John Quiggin has some comment on the German election result.
Much as I hate to admit it Schroeder is one hell of a politician.
He had nothinh going for him except he had started reform with little to show for it.
He should have been facing a keating/Whitlam defeat yet hasn’t.
I bet Keating wishes he was German!!
I love this result. The guy who was expected to lose now has some appendages the size of watermelons.
According to my German friend in Asia, some candidate died in East Germany so 200,000 more are yet to vote. With the system that gives a candidate vote and a party vote, this could translate into 3 more seats to the SPD making them equal to the CDU.
Schroeder had a great time last night ripping apart some pundits in an interview, who of course have been running the line that he’s dead and should have suicided months ago. (Schroeder feels total vindication as the underdog– the way Keating did in disposing of Hewson)
Merkel is the one dead in the water as the self prophesised winner who didn’t make it over the line. At least Schroeder started some reform which Kohl never did in 16 years, not to mention his minister Merkel at that time who was for practical purposes invisible until one day the CDU woke up to find she was the leader.
The Lafontaine left party which gained seats seems to exist only as a spoiling party and will never join anyone in government, being rather content to be in exile and ideologically pure than in government and pragmatic. Both Merkel and Schroeder loath the far left Lafontainites who will never admit Germany needs economic reform.
Apart from a Green/Liberal/SPD coalition, the only other option is the grand coalition but the funny part about this is that Schroeder not Merkel , could make it work , or so it seems.
Yes, Peter, its been an immensely satisfying weekend of elections. Schroeder has pulled off a miracle, no doubt about it. I thought of Keating 93 too. Boy, did I enjoy *that* post-election analysis for weeks.
Just when I thought Id gorged myself enough on the minutiae of Hewson’s downfall, Id spot an unread piece and think “Mmm, yes, I suppose I could go one more quality article…”
The tide has turned comrades. Its a bold call, I know, but I declare the high water mark for the Right.
Its a toxic mud smear on a N’awlins levee wall.
Lefty, I hate to say it, but you’re having a piss-poor week calling winners before they actually, you know, win. cough St Kilda cough
Try piss poor *decade* comrade.
Look at me … talkin up 93.
“For I am AussieMandius” etc…
Peter K, it’s Dresden that still has to vote – on Oct 2. So I think we’ll see Schroeder in caretaker mode at least until then.
The only other possibility would be for the Greens to join the CDU/FPD. This seems unlikely and Fischer has made negative comments about the CDU environmental policies. I’m sure they’ll wait for Oct 2 as well.
Yes makes it interesting Brian – and explains why Schroeder is still running the campaign, claiming he’s the only candidate from three seats behind.
Traffic Light Coalition seems pretty do-able: Schroeder can say to the FDP ‘Side with us, or we’ll do a grand coalition and you’ll be left twiddling your thumbs for another three years’
More likely than the Jamaica coalition anyway (Green, Yellow Black – geddit?)
One thing Schroeder mentioned as being to his credit from the previous campaign, how ABSOLUTELY correct he was in opposing the invasion of Iraq. Merkel on the other hand, one can so readily visualise, would roll over and play the lap dog to Bush even more pathetically than Howard.
Brian B, thanks for confirming that, but it seems odd to not have a nominal replacement if a candidate dies, if indeed that was the cause.
Daniel L- I agree with the traffic light coalition potential and the wedge on the FDP.
LE, re —’The tide has turned comrades. Its a bold call, I know, but I declare the high water mark for the Right’—– I’m going to be equally bold by starting with an analogy with the high water mark in New Orleans, or to refine it, a Plimsoll line where the right has been found to be grossly overloaded with hypocrisy and cant, war and neo-liberalism which has of late, been so wantonly kicking out the bottom rungs of the redistributive ladder.
Conservatives seem to have forgotten that part of their ideology is promoting stability, or does that manifest itself in the perversion by war, that promotes temporarily, the stability of the brain dead redneck vote?
Brian B, thanks , I should have read the link first. Dresdeners will have the final say.
I’m not sure of the constitutional requirements as to who is asked by the President as to whether they can form a government, but I saw where Schroeder was claiming SPD was the largest party because Merkel’s vote is made up of two – the CDU and the sister party in Bavaria, CSU. A technical point maybe and I’m not sure how important. Much may depend on whether the Greens will play footsie with CDU/CSU and the FPD. I can’t see that as being a good long-term strategy for them. Too pragmatic by far.
I also wonder whether a minority government of SPD/Greens is a possibility, at least until they can get the nasty ‘reforms’ through, which they can blame on the CDU as requiring their support in both houses. But I daresay blaming CDU would work better in the context of a Grand Coalition.
This is what the Guardian says Brian:
”October 10-14
Germany’s new parliament will reconvene to elect a new chancellor. If neither Mrs Merkel nor Mr Schroder wins a clear majority in a secret ballot of MPs, the president can invite either of them to form a minority government ”
Electing a chancellor could be the de-facto way of endorsing a coalition, even a minority one. Wonder if Lafontain’s lot will vote for Merkel to ‘teach Schroeder a lesson’ . What a bunch of nihilistic wankers! Do reform with Schroeder by degrees or have it thrust down the throat by Merkel but Lafontaine will probably vote for the latter. (Reminds me of Latham and the DLP that does!)