Like hurricane Katrina the earthquake centred on Balakot in Pakistan was predictable and predicted. Indeed, with the inexorable northern movement of India at a rate of a millimetre per week we are told that worse is likely. Experts warn that “earthquakes tens of times more powerful must be expected…[which] could kill as many as a million on the Ganges plain.” Yet the world was unready and now 12 days after 8 October when it happened the focus in Europe is turning to battling the bird flu while attention in the Americas is turning to hurricane Wilma, the 21st of the season and the most powerful seen in the Atlantic basin, now carving a path through the Caribbean.
The South Asian earthquake is already a deadly killer. Pakistan has raised the official death toll to 47,723. The final toll from the initial shock could go as high as 100,000. Kofi Annan is now warning that “a second wave of massive deaths will happen if we do not step up our efforts.”
The problem is that almost three million people have been made homeless in difficult terrain with after-shocks continually cutting roads. Winter will soon close in. I’ve heard that 500,000 heavy winter tents are needed and so far only 17,000 have been supplied. Apparently there are simply not enough tents in all the world to do the job.
UN emergency relief chief, Jan Egeland, said the quake was the UN’s worst logistical nightmare, worse than the Asian tsunami. Some 20% of the affected area has not yet been assessed. The UN and other agencies are even hiring donkeys and mules to get supplies and relief personnel such as doctors to remote areas.
With the tsunami 80% of the funds committed by donor countries was available after 10 days. This time the score is a mere 12%.
Annan said:
There are no excuses. If we are to show ourselves worthy of calling ourselves members of humankind, we must rise to this challenge. Our response will be no less than a measure of our humanity.
There has been excellent coverage of this tragedy on radio, especially on the BBC.
While there has been coverage elsewhere somehow it has failed to capture the public imagination and generate the same sympathy as other recent disasters. Clearly we need to do better not only in our response but also, I think, in our preplanning and reserve resources.
Sorry, this is a bit OT, but – Predictable like Katrina?! Earthquakes are unpredictable by nature. You can only say they’re more likely to happen in one place than another: namely, plate boundaries. Thus, we point to places like Turkey, Iran, California, Japan and so forth.
Nothing like a cyclone, or, say, a volcanic eruption. The only way of preparing for earthquakes are building standards and disaster relief plans – both clearly lacking in a big way here.
Yes, Kent, I was a ware it wasn’t an exact parallel. As you say, buildings standards and disaster relief plans are the way to go. The standards not only have to exist, they have to be implememted and supervised.
I’m a bit horrified that the UN has to pass the hat around before they can mount a decent effort. There was talk of the UN and the RED Cross/Crescent having to dip into reserves, but these seem entirely inadequate.
There have also been suggestions that the UN should develop a convention to cover environmental refugees.
Yes, Kent, I was aware that it wasn’t an exact parallel. As you say, building standards and disaster relief plans are the way to go.
Building standards not only have to exist, they have to be supervised and implemented. There was talk of the UN and the Red Cross/Crescent dipping into reserves, but these seem entirely inadequate.
I heard last night that there were 15,000 villages/towns in the target area, each with their own logistic requirements. The number of survivors with wounds and abrasions is also higher than for the tsunami. Some of these are dying through lack of treatment.
There has also been talk of the UN needing to develop a convention to cover environmental refugees.
Sorry for the double comment. The first time it disappeared, so I did it again from (faulty) memory, whereupon they both appeared.
As we saw in the tsunami, the UN is useless.
Once again it’s up to the developed nations to do something. Normally that means the US, but the US has its own hands full with local disasters at the moment.
Perhaps the French, Russiians and Germans, who aren’t deploying any troops in Iraq, could send some to help in Pakistan?
Brian, good post. It’s hard to see how any relief effort can be manned without adequate funds or the people to distribute the funds and supplies, which seems to be the crux of this matter.
Certainly the logistics of the operation also seem to be hampering help. Plus, I have read reports that Pakistani authories aren’t being helpful, not out of any maliciousness, but out of sheer ineptitude.
The lack of news about this disaster can be attributed pretty easily to three different elements: lack of proximity, the fact that no westerners have been killed, and the fact that we haven’t seen much footage/other first hand reportage.
Anyway, I’ve given as much money as I can afford right now to the Red Cross. I know charity is bad (/sarcasm) but I do encourage anyone who can to do likewise.
Evil, if it makes any difference this item from PM last night quotes the Chief Operating Officer of the UN’s emergency centre, Andrew MacLeod, who, if I hear correctly, sounds like an Australian. The UN can’t do anything if it has no money.
The main agencies seem to be the Pakistani Army, which was slow to start, the UN, aid agencies and individual countries. I know that the Europeans had teams there to help find people in the rubble. We have sent a team to assess water supplies and such. But this BBC report says that “while 92 countries had helped nations hit by last year’s tsunami, only some 15 to 20 countries had responded to the quake.” Now it seems that NATO has come to the party with an airlift of 900 tonnes of aid from warehouses in Turkey.
The BBC item also gives a map of the affected area and links to aid agencies for the purpose of making donations.
It also says that an additional 30,000 heavy tents are required, not 500,000 as quoted in the post. But it does say that there may not be enough in the world to meet the need.
I know it’s hard to find the time to google so you’ll be pleased to hear this then EP
NATO joins forces with UNHCR to airlift urgently-needed tents to Pakistan
It’s good to see NATO helping, which at least means that European countries are getting involved (along with the US, the most powerful member of the alliance).
However, giving money to the UN would be wrong. It’s a notoriously corrupt organisation and the cash would only go to line the pockets of bureaucrats. Individual nations and alliances such as NATO can help, but involving the UN would only waste resources.
Some one should tell the US
then.
Thanks for the encouragement Kate, payday yesterday, so $50 to the UNHCR.
1. Annan has about as much credibility as the mould growing th ebottom of a week old coffee cup.
2. Countries that can afford nuclear weapons can jam it if they expect donations from me to help in relief efforts.
Razor
1. Research for analogies is still no excuse for not doing your dishes. Bit of hot water, a dishcloth, an some washing-up liquid should do it.
2. You might find that the people actually affected weren’t the ones blowing their dosh on nuclear weapons. Though hats off for your one man lobbying solution against nuclear proliferation. Shame you just missed out on the Nobel prize to Mohamed el Baradei.
You just can’t get good servants these days!
It seems that, finally, the border, or Line of Control, between Indian and Pakistani Kashmir may be opened in five places, with passages just three feet wide.
Earlier there was a kerfuffle over helicopters. The Pakistanis don’t have enough. The Indians are willing to lend them some army helicopters. But the Indians say the Pakistanis can’t fly them and the Pakistanis won’t allow the Indian army pilots in.
The latest I heard on tents was that they actually need a further 300,000 of them. As it happens Pakistan makes such tents, so orders have been placed. I think it’s about 6 weeks until winter becomes full-on, so here’s hoping.
I heard Radio Netherlands say the the quake just didn’t cut it as a disaster story. The Dutch had only coughed up 5 million Euro, a fraction of what they gave to the tsunami. It was felt that earthquakes were a bit common and ho hum amidst all the more spectacular disasters.
“It was felt that earthquakes were a bit common and ho hum amidst all the more spectacular disasters.”
So true. There’s also a lot fewer “Oh god this is terrible” and “Donate here” blog posts going around compared to the post-tsunami days. Or even compared to Katrina.
And it’s painfully ironic, because, after all, the tsunami disaster was one of those ho-hum earthquakes at root.
Kent, yes, at root an earthquake looks like this.
Yes, Brian, I studied geology at university
Here’s a relevant blog: South Asia Quake Help.
Also, the Federal Government pledged another $4 million in quake aid, bringing the total to $14.1 million.