Note: This post has been republished from the Crikey website and is cross-posted at Currumbin2Cook.
After the first week of the campaign, Peter Beattieâs biggest problem is keeping his grin to manageable proportions while he claims underdog status. Liberal leader Bruce Flegg is trying to turn around his bad fortune by insisting that the media stop talking about the âprocessâ? . Flegg insists heâs not a polished politician. That much is true. But Fleggâs tactics highlight and reinforce the message about his inexperience which has been disastrous for the Coalition. The Libs have made themselves the issue.
Readers outside Queensland probably canât see the exact dimensions of the total farce which has been the Liberal campaign. After spending days denying he could be Premier, and fuelling Beattieâs âcanât govern yourselfâ¦â? slogan, Fleggâs subsequent appearances on the tv news highlighted his denial that he was kicked out of a shopping centre (despite vision showing he was). Then Mt Ommaney candidate Bob Harper tried to console him by reminding him that a lot of shoppers hate pollies thrusting their hand at them. And that was in the same news bulletin which exposed an âordinary voterâ? talking to hapless Bruce as a former Liberal member.
The Liberals have cruelled the Coalitionâs chances of putting any real pressure on a Premier whose familiar bag of political tricks has passed its use by date. Lawrence Springborg has run a better and more disciplined campaign than in 2004. But there are really two campaigns. The Nats will struggle to dislodge dug in Independents, and Labor is holding up its vote outside the South East corner. The Libs need to do the heavy lifting in Brisbane and on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. But such has been the incompetence and disarray of their campaign, the only messages that are remotely cutting through are the Natsâ themes. And urban voters are unlikely to warm to the values displayed at Springborg.com which feature hard line moral conservatism, law and order and support for tree clearing in the bush.
The Liberal campaign is so messy that Liberal powerbrokers are already playing the blame game in the papers. The Australian reported that Flegg went into the campaign without a health policy, despite being health shadow. Blind Freddie could have predicted that health would be Beattieâs greatest area of vulnerability. But itâs being reported that Flegg hurriedly adopted National MP Rob Messengerâs proposal for a new hospital in Bundaberg (which is not needed â the problem is not facilities but doctors and nurses to staff them) and plucked a figure out of the air as a costing. Significantly, the story was leaked by Liberal sources. Fleggâs potential rival, Michael Catalbiano, was on Sunday representing the interests of the Santoro faction in a nasty preselection for Robina. Suggestions that Flegg will be a five week wonder as leader are only questionable because Catalbiano looks set to lose his own seat, and there might be few Liberals left standing to twist the knife when the dust of the election settles.
Last week, most observers were predicting Labor to win with a small majority. With the polls showing Team Beattie only 2% behind its 2004 vote, at this stage, many fewer seats than expected might be anticipated to change hands. There may be a swing back in favour of the Coalition, but if the election had been held over the weekend, I believe that Labor would have been re-elected with its majority of 16 cut only by 5. The Libs are in danger of repeating previous performances where their gains from Labor have been diminished by losing seats they hold.
Good article, Mark. We really need more accountability for government in uni-cameral Queensland but we just don’t get any from the opposition parties. The Fleggster probably would be dynamic as a health minister so this is a real shame.
I agree, C.L.
The Beattie government was probably at its best in its first term when it was a minority government. But the current opposition have failed dismally not just to hold it to account but to put forward any positive alternative policy. Despite the majority Beattie enjoys, they should have been in with a chance.
I’m voting Labor, but the people of Queensland deserve better than a Beattie win by default because the Coalition are the massively worst of two evils.
“Uni-cameral”?
Fuck I’m ignorant. What a strange arrangement. How did that come to pass? Was there formerly an upper house?
FDB – yep, abolished by the Labor Government in 1922.
Unilaterally? Did the senate vote themselves out of a job?
Exactly, FDB. And in the traditional Queensland contrariness, it’s been against the trend of every other Labor Party in every other State: in NSW Labor has almost made a fetish of its Legislative Council representation.
Giving the MLCs Caucus votes was the worst thing that ever happened to Labor in state government: they’re unelected swill inside the Caucus room just as much as they are in the House in general.
Strip their votes and watch the factions’ influence recede! You can’t deny that unicameral systems have their good points.
They stacked it first, then voted to abolish it.
“Unilaterally? Did the senate vote themselves out of a job?”
A tranche of dissolution-supporting members were deliberately appointed to bring it about after a referendum failed to support the Theodore government’s proposal to abolish the chamber.
It was done a bit sneakily. The Governor had sailed off to England, and Theodore had the Speaker appointed Lieutenant Governor (it normally would have been the Chief Justice, but I think that office was vacant) in order to appoint the “suicide squad” of Labor MLCs. The Speaker, obviously, was a Labor member of the lower house. The “suicide squad” got pensions for life and got to call themselves “Honourable”.
The Legislative Council, which was appointed not elected (as I think the NSW one was til 78 – anyway some time in Wran’s premiership) had been quite obstructive towards T. J. Ryan and Theodore’s legislative agenda. The theory expressed was very similar to the justifications given for the House of Loreds throwing out Liberal legislation before Asquith and Lloyd George reduced its powers in 1911.
The Constitution was amended so that the LC could never be reintroduced without a referendum. Conservatives have occasionally made noises about doing so, and Greens and Democrats would like one, but it’s traditionally been the view that you could never get the electorate to vote for creating a heap more politicians.
Tony Fitzgerald’s report suggested a number of other ways to enforce accountability – including the CJC and EARC (Electoral and Administrative Review Commission) – the latter was intended to be permanent but was killed off eventually by Wayne Goss. I have some sympathy with Goss’ position – the elected Government doesn’t need an unelected quango as its nanny.
The committee system being beefed up is supposed to enforce accountability, and it’s certainly more effective than in the pre-Fitzgerald era, but there do remain real concerns about a break on government. Queenslanders have a habit of electing governments with lopsided majorities as well. The 1995 and 1998 elections really were the exception rather than the rule there.
Nothing much to add on the question of the Liberals’ campaign per se, but as long as those various ‘dug-in Independents’ keep on digging in (presumably for good reasons, though it’s not like I’d know), I’d say the Queensland Coalition has no chance of securing government.
The fact that even now they cling to Joh-era hardline conservatism is telling, I think. It plays well in somewhere like the Toowoomba region, hence why we have a swag of local Nats, but that isn’t going to win government for anyone. It might not even win them their own seats forever. The choice in the bush isn’t necessarily Nats or Labour, it could be Nats or rightwing-independents-who-won’t-vote-reliably.
And while Beattie has coasted on some awfully flakey bullshit for years now, the Nationals just WON’T LEARN. They aren’t born to rule.
Labor holds Toowoomba North, Kieran, and by quite a nice margin – 7.4%.
Actually, one big issue outside Brisbane is changing demographics. So many folk have moved to Qld – and many are “tree changers” or “sea changers” that they’re now sitting in National or marginal Labor seats having no Liberal alternative and forced to cop all the Nats’ antideluvian views. Conversely, a lot of the same people are probably critical of Labor because infrastructure and planning have failed to keep up with population (a hard one for any government with the sorts of demographic movements going on).
This is a sleeper in this election – but will impact on the outcome.
And can I just add that Springborg’s back-to-the-future conservative morals bullshit is a bit silly when a. they don’t have ‘socialists’ in Canberra anymore, and b. it has little to do with actual state government responsiblities anyhow. Reminds me of local council elections (even more basic rubbish n’ roads oriented) where people stand on the basis of their ‘christian family values’… oh, yeah that reminds me of someone.
Ah, T.J. Ryan and E.G. Theodore – now there were Premiers!
Yep!
There must be a PhD (or an internship with Bernard Salt, perhaps) in examining the thought processes of Labor-leaning (yeah, that’s an assumption) southerners moving to idyllic seachange destinations, realising after the event that while idyllic, there’s no decent hospital or anything else of infrastructural value, and then voting against Beattie because he should have seen them coming.
Tree-changers might be a bit different, many move because they can afford the housing in their chosen destinations (eg the Burnett). Dunno what their expectations might be.
C.L. you say:
Maybe, but for Flegg to be the success you claim, there would have to be a fundamental change in the assumptions that underpin government in Queensland. At least since the Joh era, Governments of every colour have perpetuated the myth that you can get first rate services ‘on the cheap’. Low taxes have been a mantra that is now embedded in the QLD psyche. No politician, Beattie included, has been game to ‘tell the truth’.
If you look at government outlays over periods of time, QLD has spent significantly less than the Australian average in areas such as child protection, health and education; to name but three areas. Spending on police tends to be much better. Funny that.
At the same time, QLD subsidises fuel at 8 cents a litre. Madness.
PS Flegg has failed his first history test. He didn’t know that Brisbane was named after Sir Thomas Brisbane, a former Governor of NSW.
Phil, it’s certainly a very interesting question in political sociology, and would be a good one for some empirical research.
I suspect they won’t vote against Beattie en masse, though, because in those seats, the alternative is the Nats who are often development at all costs proponents, and there you run into the other issue with sea changers – once they’re there, they often want the drawbridge taken up, or the “sleepy” nature of the town preserved.
Beattie I think is finally seeing the dilemma is there, wpd, though it hasn’t been for want of people pointing it out to him (and Goss before him) – particularly from the public service and the party.
I saw Flegg on the teev just now – sheesh!
I’m not sure if there is any solid evidence for my theory, but I suspect it would be a good thing for Federal Labor if some of the Labor state governments fell. Some people like to spread their vote between the parties as they don’t want to see one party have total dominance. Am I right in thinking that Federal Labor’s vote would improve if the Libs gained control of some of the States?
History suggests you are spot on.
Certainly there are large numbers of what are called “Beattie Liberals” in Brisbane and on the Gold and Sunshine coasts, steve. Beattie could hardly have won 34 out of the 35 seats within the Brisbane metropolitan area in 2004, the same year as the federal election, without a very large number of people voting Labor at state level and Liberal at federal level.
As an aside, I don’t have the same respect for Theodore as ‘some’ contributors. I think that on balance Theodore did act corruptly in relation to the mine purchase around Chillagoe.
If you want an animated discussion, raise the issue in the local pub. And, by the way, they have an excellent museum.
I repeat the media tart will win with an increased majority.
A status Quo is a win for me he he he.
He may well have, wpd, though I suspect the historical jury will always be out. But I still think it’s possible to regard his positive achievements for what they’re worth. It’s a tricky one, because in saying that I sound like the people who defend Joh! And it’s also difficult to argue historically that the ALP regimes after T.J. Ryan didn’t also politicise the police force and do some very anti-democratic things. Though Hanlon and Gair were probably worse than their predecessors.
So where’s the colour of your money, Phill? I’ll bet $100 that Beattie will not increase his majority. What odds are you offering?
Phill. I preach caution. Tis early days, and the Libs under Flegg have been a disaster. But the Feds will soon arrive in droves.
Boy, does Bishop present!
wpd, I agree that a mantra about lower taxes being always better for the community is simplistic. Medicine especially just gets more and more expensive. People can’t realistically expect super-low taxes while demanding first-rate roads, water infrastructure, schools and hospitals.
For 30 years, Queensland governments have sold the “low tax state” idea to businesses and investors. This has been seen as a way to boost growth, revenues, employment, pride, “cranes on the horizon,” you name it. Bob Sparkes & Co. combined this brilliantly with the political goal of urbanising the appeal of the old Country Party when they were creating the Nationals.
I think the thesis you’ve mentioned would essentially be the story of how this originally dynamic combination of rhetorical autarky and cargo-cultism itself became intertwined with inter-state immigration and left the mechanics of both public finance and representative democracy struggling to keep up. (How easily one slips into thesis sub-title-speak).
I think a lot of people sense this and may be electorally actuated by it, especially outside of Brisbane where any sense of unity with the capital has deteriorated badly.
Paradoxically, however, their instinct may be to rely on the incumbency of the Media Tart they know rather than the Fleggborg they don’t. Where do the Opposition parties go from there, that’s the political/historical question?
Hey Mark, Im married I don’t know what a hundred bucks looks like.
Unfortunately I can’t put my money where my mouth is.But he is going to win none the less.Put it this way if he gets the arse,Kimbo had just as well throw in the towel now.I reckon Industrial relations is an election buster.We shall see.
Mark, yes I know Kerry Shine holds Toowoomba North and on a good margin, this is very true.
Which just goes to show that even in Nats heartland, they can’t always count on their schtick.
And after their ‘contribution’ to the water debate recently, ‘schtick’ is about all I can call it. I don’t think they have a clue – and water should be their big issue, being as how they represent rural people and all (of course it’s a city issue too, but still).
wpd, I respect Theodore based on his life story and don’t think Mungana fairly represents all there is to know and admire about the man.
Murphy’s Red Ted: The Life of E. G. Theodore is an outstanding biography.
Ok, Phill.
I think that’s right, C.L., and while you’re right about solidarity with the capital, it cuts both ways. I think in general in Australian culture there’s been a move away in the cities from the sort of reflex solidarity with the bush that used to exist – and the rent-seeking nature of some of the interest groups’ requests, and Howard’s rush to meet them (for instance, the rort of hundreds of millions of dollars for sugar industry restructuring partly paid by a hidden tax) is contributing to accelerating to it. So paradoxically, again, I think Beattie has probably done well to keep articulating a sense of Queensland as one entity.
Picking up on your point, the other thing is that Labor really is the only part at the moment to be able to claim to represent the whole state. And that claim has been very electorally important historically.
Kieran, in a way, Toowoomba North will be an important test because Shine’s opponent, Lyle Shelton, was one of the Councillors most involved with the no campaign.
” Boy does Bishop present well” Yea I know Im in love with her,oh to run my fingers through that blue rinse blow wave and set my god im getting excited thinking about it. However not quite as excited as I would be, thinking about Maggie Thatcher.Maggie and a bucket of oats?my God Im going,it’s to much.
Mark: re. Shelton. Yes. Even in Toowoomba, I have my doubts as to whether he’s as popular as perceived. The man represents, essentially, the Christian far-right, within the city. I just don’t think people care that much, even if they reflexively agree with some of the same positions as he might.
Before the water thing, he was mostly obsessed with prostitution, and did himself no favours by, frankly, appearing to neglect the rather more practical business of council work.
So he might win, but if Kerry Shine has put in the leg-work – and it seems he has – that surely must count for something. I am not a betting person.
“Paradoxically, however, their instinct may be to rely on the incumbency of the Media Tart they know rather than the Fleggborg they don’t. Where do the Opposition parties go from there, that’s the political/historical question”
IMHO, but based on years of working at reasonably senior levels in government, the Liberals and Nationals as a Coalition face fundamental problems.
Generally speaking, the Liberals are guided by ‘principle(s)’, and those ‘principles’ affect and effect the way they think and operate. I am referring to State politics here. At the Federal level, Howard is proving to be an exception? Maybe??
On the other hand, the Nationals are very good at speaking to people. They tend to be totally pragmatic. Winning is the ‘principle’. Nationals never seem to be limited by ‘principle’.
In my experience, the Liberals and the Nationals dislike each other and a lot of that dislike can be traced to the above. Of course there are exceptions. Quinn and Borbidge got on quite well. But many would argue that Borbidge was never a real National. Real nationals, such as the Member for Gregory, detested the ‘White Shoe’ Liberals such as Bob Quinn.
I don’t know where the Opposition Parties go from here. I think Howard was politically correct to oppose the merger of the parties here in QLD. It would have caused the rise of splinter parties such as One Nation.
I travel around Australia a fair bit. And there is no doubt there is a city/country divide. The ‘bush’ feels that is has been screwed and always respond to politicians who show they ‘understand’.
I think that ‘demographics’ will eventually see the demise of the Nationals. Springborg recognised this but he was not listened to. Maybe the solution for the opposition is to see the rise of a charismatic leader who can carry the electorate. The prospects are not good.
Actually CL, I basically agree with your position. I just wanted to suggest that he wasn’t a saint. Certainly, he was a man of great ability.
Given history is the flavor of the month, I wonder if James Packer realises Theodore’s contribution to the Packer Dvnasty?
That’s interesting, Kieran. I knew Shelton was aligned with the conservative Christian right, who are a presence in Toowoomba (as elsewhere in Queensland), but I didn’t know much about his previous work on the Council.
Ya gotta love politics Qld style. I won’t claim to know much about what actually happens north of the Tweed, but I do remember an old aphorism they used to apply to women. “You can take the girl out of Queensland, but you can never take the Queensland out of the girl….” My impression is that a similar statement could be made about politics in the Sunshine State…
Cheers…
Interesting that the coalition is running a new website at qldcoalition.org.au for this election campaign but it is a case of new flies on old crap. All the policy listed there seems to be straight National Party propaganda from Springborg.com.
I am waiting with bated breath to see just what the “coalition” puts up as policy on tree-clearing, daylight-saving,Industrial Relations etc. the big issues on the edge of where City meets bush.
The lack of policy development by the Libs will become more obvious as the list grows and the election grows closer.
It would be a great injustice if a hard working local member like Kerry Shine was outpolled by a Nat who runs a distance second in competence.
Consider the work Kerry Shine has put into rejuvenating the Bush while his opponent has stayed in Toowommba talking rubbish about sewerage.
The Tory has had his five minutes of fame by pushing the “No” vote to promote himself rather than solving the city’s water problems.
It is doubtful whether this Nat’s obsession with prostitution law reform or getting tough by naming juveniles will benefit anyone either. This includes himself if the coalition’s performance over the past three years is any guide.
If it wasn’t for Patel, they would be 60 to one with the bookies now instead of the flattering odds of six to one.
That’s about right, Mick. It’s still perennial weirdness up here. And as Andrew Stafford might say, Brisvegas is still “Pig City”:
http://www.uqp.uq.edu.au/book_details.php?id=0702233609
Probably the qldcoalition site was set up as some sort of mirror of sprinborg.com after the amalgamation fiasco.
OMG!
I just found the direct link to the Borg’s values.
Here they are:
http://www.springborg.com/key_values.htm
Why are values set out as an FAQ?
Childbirth is special to a man and a woman? What’s he on about? TEH GAYS are not using stem cells to make blokes pregnant. Perhaps he’s still worried by his google inspired research on the dangers of compulsory feminization through recycled water?
Keerist!
Read what he has to say about picking up tips from “Aboriginal elders” about using “shame and banishment” (whatever that means) as the basis of his criminal justice policy.
I fear the Borg writes his own lines. This is not a good thing.