Donald Rumsfeld demonstrated that his famed mastery of bureaucratic politics was not a myth by writing a memo (duly leaked) just before he was ousted admitting that the War in Iraq was off course. His replacement, Bob Gates, has admitted in Senate testimony that the US is not winning the war (though he later clarified his remarks to suggest that the US wasn’t losing either – but confined this to the military sphere, not the political). In a blow to neo-cons, he also ruled out surprise attacks on Iraq and North Korea on his watch. Now the Baker Study Group has released its report [available in full here in a pdf], warning of a collapse of the Iraqi government and an impending humanitarian catastrophe. The trouble is that the Baker suggestions have already been overtaken by events. Iraq, not the US, has been talking to Syria and Iran, and the disintegration of the Iraqi government looks imminent.
The report puts a stake through the heart of the “stay the course” strategy of the Bush administration, a course so warmly welcomed by John Howard. It’s suggested that US forces might be out by 2008. The doubters about the wisdom of the invasion are now in the citadel itself, with Gates agreeing that in hindsight the war may have been a mistake. It’ll be fascinating to observe whether the Bush administration is able to get to grips with reality. And fascinating to hear how John Howard responds.
As Tim Dunlop observes, Howard has outsourced our middle east policy to the US. But he still has to confront the domestic implications. How will he argue convicingly that national security is his strength? And when will the feared JI hordes, emboldened by the US “cutting and running” appear on our door step? That’s if you take the surrealist view of policy which has dominated past government rhetoric on the consequences of a withdrawal from Iraq.
This report is the last nail in George Bush’s presidency. A new team is in charge now. The course will be altered but will not lead to an exit. Bush is disgraced. Not for invading but for screwing the war and occupation so badly.
The new US regime will stay but reckon they can do better than the hapless George Bush. But I think there will be more of the same for a while longer yet.
What I’m interested in as well, wbb, is how Howard responds. The claim is made that Howard has been somehow immune to the curse of Iraq that’s haunted Blair and Bush. But if Labor take it up to them (and what have they got to lose – the war’s very unpopular), then Howard and Dolly have to defend themselves somehow. The time for raving and ranting about “frontline in the war for civilisation” has surely passed. How do they defend Australia’s continued participation and their entire Iraq policy credibly?
There’s a real sadness in seeing what appeared quite obvious from Day One of the madness made cool & clear by the new team. Gates appeared tremendously calm & thoughtful as he was quizzed at his interview in front of Senate Armed Services Committee. The antithesis of the rote nonsense that his predecessor, and the petulant POTUS have used as smoke-screen for so long.
One imagines Howard & Downer genuinely befuddled, though as we know Downer is a blog habitue, it will hardly be news to him.
It’s Obby & co that I’m really concerned about. There’s been thousands of words wasted on the internets supporting the madness. How will they deal with the back-pedalling of disengagement?
I think they’ve dealt with it by disappearing!
They’ll be here soon enough, they’ve just been brushing up on their German pronunciation. Everyone get used to this word.
The coalition should have stuck to one war at a time.
I’ll stick my hand up Leinad. I opposed the war so Iraq was really all my fault.
Oh, and here’s that pesky missing comma between ‘up’ and ‘Leinad’.
Dolchstosslegende
That’s a lovely word, Leinad. I reckon, though, the US powers that be have even run out of gas using that tacky tack.
Mark, I don’t think Howard needs to respond. Nobody is asking the question here. Iraq is a long way away. We don’t have forces there. We turn away from Iraq news now coz it’s so unremitting. So alien. All that blood. Surely nothing to do with us.
We prefer to get intense about The Ashes. Road to Surfdom has run an Iraqi agenda full time for 3 years – and there is little interest even in the blogosphere.
Err, yes, we do!
I’ve not read the whole thing yet, just a few of its recommendations and blog commentary.
A couple of things strike me, though. Engaging with Iran and Syria to assist with the rehabilitation of Iraq is going to be fraught. Neither has any stake in peace or democracy in Iraq. Iran will be the greatest beneficiary if the current mayhem is allowed to run its course. More importantly, for either to even give the appearance of engaging for that purpose, they will demand huge concessions from the US and the international community. For Syria, it will be an end to enquiries about who killed Hariri lst year, no enquiries at all into who assassinated Pierre Jemayel, and a blind eye, please, to whatever transpires in Lebanon. (Syria was forced, most reluctantly, to end its occupation of Lebanon last year, and is presently poised to recover de facto control through a coup by its proxy, Hizbollah.)
For Iran, it can only be hands off our nuclear program. Only the most naive would believe that Iran is not pursuing the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
The other thing is that this may be the beginning of the US’ disengagement from Israel. Baker reportedly favours, and the ISG report reflects, an international conference to resolve the Israel-Palestine problem which does not include participation by Israel. Syria and Iran, again, would be the favoured partners. Apparently Baker sees this as an opportunity to discuss Israel’s withdrawal from the (remaining) occupied territory without being subject to ‘Jewish pressure’. In other words, the terms for Israel’s withdrawal would be set by its enemies. Apparently Secretary of State Rice supports this proposal.
We debated the Vietnam-Iraq analogy on another thread. Before too long, we may be extending the analogy to Israel, as Hassan Nasrallah has confidently predicted.
Interesting times.
Can someone free my comment?
Done, Rob.
I think even Bush has walked away from the democracy agenda in Iraq.
Your comments on Israel are interesting – I haven’t read the report yet myself, and haven’t seen that aspect highlighted. I won’t have time til the weekend, though, but I’m interested in following it up.
See what happens when you trust idiots?
Very few of our Wingnut interlocutors have graced us with their thoughts.
Have they changed their minds?
Do they have minds to change?
(I exclude Rob from all of the above because he has always been honest, frank and self-critical.)
The ‘Baker Report’ will not be the final word. Bush points that he is the ‘decider’ and he has reports from at least two other sources to consider.
Knowing Bush it won’t be ‘cut and run’ rather it will be ‘stay and pray’. After all God is on the side of America. All the insurgents have is ‘Allah’.
Obviously we do have troops in Iraq. It’s just that we don’t really have troops in Iraq. They are there, in a technical cartographical sense, willingly hugging the border and sensibly turning a blind eye even when they’re shot at. A more willingly token effort’d be hard to find.
It’s very hard, electorally, to make much of what is the salient point here, which is we aided and abetted the undoing of the lives of 24 million ( or take a few). It can be noted at every opportunity and must be. But it won’t mean voters turning upon Howard.
Democracy, like the market, is no silver bullet.
I’ve read the report now and while I think the recommendations in relation to Israel are as woolly as those relating to Iran and Syria, I don’t see any reference to a conference on Israel-Palestine which excludes the Israelis. Maybe I missed it. Otherwise, put not your faith in the MSM.
It seems Iran might just wiggle out of the nuclear dispute as part of a payoff for contributing to stability in Iraq. At the end of the day, it’s the humanitarian catastrophe that the US invasion has brought to Iraq that is the main issue, but it is nevertheless fascinating to note how badly the US has done in advancing its own interests. Long after the left has lost interest in George Bush, the right will be damning his name for a long time to come.
wbb:
Yes, And there was something on radio this morning about a serious rift already in the Republican Party. Is it the end for the GOP?
Graham Bell: “Is it the end for the GOP?”
Here’s hoping. Fucking rats stuck in Pavlovian maze experiments have a far higher learning curve than these bloody GOP morons. Leading a large, wealthy country ought to be a decent-paying, competitive gig. Why the fuck is it that only cretins are hired? Maybe it’s all those old “No Irish Need Apply” signs that haven’t been taken down yet…
wbb: “Long after the left has lost interest in George Bush, the right will be damning his name for a long time to come.”
You got that one right, bud.
Except that in my heart of hearts, I don’t actually think there’s anything remaining like a principled Right or Left anymore. Just a bunch of hogs at the trough…
On the other hand, that’s precisely what little Jemmy Madison foresaw and tried to protect us from, so maybe all in all it’s a good thing, who knows…
HAMM: Old stancher! You… remain.
(original untranslated text) ‘Je… te garde.’
S. Beckett, ‘Fin de partie’ (Nimzo-Indian defence version)
“I don’t actually think there’s anything remaining like a principled Right or Left anymore”
Yes, damn all their hides. It’s a post-ideological age now. Calm and low key technocratic managers who provide decent basic soft and hard infrastructure essentials, a workable and opened-ended business environment and an emergency safety net while keeping their noses out of social and personal shit as we do thou wilt is the way to go I feel.
Look at the Economist Intelligence Unit’s annual “Most Liveable City” rankings. For the last five years, the three cities alternating pole position have been Vancouver, Seattle and Melbourne (all first rate second rate cities)- and all temperate climate waterfront settler colony cities with technocratic focussed but economically, socially and culturally laissez-faire regional governments.
Still thinking of moving back to London though. The biggest iron grey ancient grim yet still light on her feet motherfucker of all cities. Not as pretty as Paris, not as weird as Tokyo, not as buzzy as the Big Apple, not as sexy as Rome, yet London, like The Dude, abides.
The only certain thing about Golden Ages is that they are over.
Casting my mind back over western political history of the last 150 years or so, the more-or-less equal struggle of ideas between Right and Left has been the exception rather than the rule.
Disraeli v Gladstone gave way to Randolph Churchill’s playing of the Irish card.
The Dreyfus case poisoned French politics for decades.
George Dangerfield’s The Strange Death of Liberal England exposes the sheer mendacity of British politics in the first decade and a half of the 20th century.
Tories faked the Zinoviev letter.
Nixon played the race card with consummate skill and cynicism in 1968.
Kenneth Starr. Need I say more?
No. The stupid party, the party of the parliamentary right, has always foreclosed on the battle of ideas when it became clear that they were losing.
I the face of this bad faith, parties of the parliamentary left have demonstrated enormous forebearance.
But now the right is flirting with extraparliamentary, perhaps even extraterrestrial strategies. The right is flirting with the “faith-based community” seeking answers and legitimacy beyond the consensual realms of utilitarianism.
This desperate manoeuvre must collapse. What the Right will look like after that is anyone’s guess.
Posting experiment (is there something the matter w/ my connection?…)
“The Wicked Messenger” (B. Dylan)
There was a wicked messenger,
From Eli he did come,
With a mind that multiplied
The smallest matter;
When questioned who had sent for him,
He answered with his thumb:
For his tongue it could not speak,
But only flatter.
(horrible harmonica solo)
He stayed behind the Assembly Hall,
It was there he made his bed.
Oftentimes he could be seen returning.
Until one day he just appeared
With a note in his hand which read,
“The soles of my feet,
I swear they’re burning!”
(unlistenable harmonica solo continues)
Oh, the leaves began a-falling
And the seas began to part;
And the people who confronted him
Were many.
Til he was told with these few words
Which opened up his heart:
“If you cannot bring Good News,
Then don’t bring any.”