There’d be a win win option for Howard’s place in history if the Libs dump him for Costello. Costello might win. If he does, Howard can say “I would have won bigger” (cf Hawkie in 93). If he loses, Howard can say “I would have won”. The Dear Leader himself escapes the chance of losing.
Costello could make him King of Tonga or something as a consolation prize.
Mandated territory, fight the Chicomms and the terrsts, etc.
Seriously, knowing how predictable the press gallery are, how many more bad polls for Howard before the leadership stories start?
Someone should open a betting market on that.
Costello is unelectable.
But you weren’t seriously suggesting that Liberals would win/retain goverment with Costello as leader.
I share your mystification that there aren’t retirement/quit-while-you’re-ahead stories starting to be printed.
Costello is unelectable.
That isn’t true. Once anyone gets the full power of the public purse and the dominance of the media that the PM has to set agendas – anyone is electable.
Costello has done well enough as a politician to deserve a go at being elected as PM in his own right.
“Costello has done well enough as a politician to deserve a go at being elected as PM in his own right.”
Costello has been Howard’s yes man for ten years.
Hardly.a.peep.
Why haven’t the press gallery jumped on the leadership speculation bandwagon with Howard? Because they have made premature leaps so many times in regard to the rodent in recent years that they have turned into the most docile sheep.
The prevailing narrative in the MSM about Howard these days – and few are bold enough to posit any other theory – is that he is THE master politician, able to neutralise any controversy in his favour, wedge any opponent and appear to be tapping mainstream thought on any issue.
Take Matt Price, formerly an acerbic and insightful journalist, who was sent by The Australian to Canberra to offer an offbeat view of the goings on there. But even he has gone native now, swallowing the line that Howard is indestructible. See his blog this week for evidence of this.
Journalists who pride themselves on their innate scepticism are totally credulous about claims that Howard can’t be beaten. Yet all the discussion on blogs, where one discerns the real zeitgeist these days, is that he has gone one bridge too far.
Costello could have thrashed Beazley and Latham, but he can’t beat Rudd.
He can match Rudd for command of detail but his tongue is a double-edged sword. He is more likely to make a telling gaffe than score a direct hit on Rudd. The sign of someone who’s too enthralled by Canberra politics is that they think that political theatre matters electorally: Fraser monstered Hawke in Parliament during the lead-up to 1983, but electorally (and historically), so what?
The arguments in favour of Costello are not strong. People say he deserves a chance: a) plenty of people deserve a chance from this government, particularly those who aren’t even members of any political party, let alone in parliament, and b) [snigger!] politics doesn’t work on sentiment. People say he’d be more moderate than Howard: after Ruddock and Vanstone and Hill I don’t know what that means any more.
The other two main arguments can be made for not only Costello, but Abbott or Rudd or Gillard or Nelson or Uncle Tom Cobley or, for that matter, yourself. He’d be a change from Howard, and he’d give people a chance who feel they’ve been overlooked by Howard. This is a flimsy set of reasoning and no wonder Costello’s support base (such as it is) fits into a hardcore group of the latter.
In fact, the stories have already started: this article appeared in the online Bullweek a couple of days ago.
Costello is unelectable. Turnbull (watch me twirl my bifocals in the manner of Rumpole of the Bailey, you impressed yet? well, now watch me puff out my chest even more. That’s how we do it in Vaucluse.) is equally or more unelectable.
Howard won’t cut & run. Which is excellent, coz I get to have the last (very vindictive) laugh in November.
I wish the Liberals every failure in the coming federal election.
steve at the pub is correct. Costello is, and has always been, unelectable. The only people who support Costello are a small number of Labor luvvies who creamed their pants when he walked across the Harbour Bridge. The next Liberal Prime Minister will be Malcolm Turnbull; after Howard steps down.
Mr Denmore
Indeed, the MSM, especially Fairdax broadsheets, has shown itself to be spectacularly clueless about the Australian electorate for at least 15 years. What the hell is happening in their hiring policies?
I would like to take exception to the “rodent” comment (Mr Denmore above.
It was my clear impression that he (Mr Howard) was a “miserable moral cockroach” (observation of Noel Pearson) and that, like Saddam Hussein, while there was only ever one of him running around, there were at least fifty of him hiding behind the refrigerator (observation of Paul McDermott).
It is extremely unlikely that no matter how low Howard’s poll figures fall pre-2007 election, there will not be a leadership challenge.
The 2007 fight is locked and loaded. Costello, and anyone else who challenged Howard must know that victory against Howard in the party room would mean a compulsory swig from the poisoned chalice of defeat in Sept/Oct/Nov.
No, better for Costello, or anyone else with a mind to knife the Rodent, to wait until the election and to step forward as the person who can restore the shattered fortunes of the Liberal Party.
Indeed, the more likely is Liberal defeat, the less likely is a challenge.
Thus, the most interesting aspect of 2007 will be to watch how Liberal aspirants for leadership will eye each otherwith hatred ans suspicion as they gather round the Deaf Leader’s Political Death Bed.
Yes, they may be hiding behind the fridge now, but in happier days for Mr Howard they were popping up simultaneously at every sporting event and public ceremony possible.
Maybe they feel safe with the fridge magnet?
John Greenfield,
I do so hope you are right about Turnbull as Howard’s successor. It gives one a thrill doesn’t it, watching someone with such fruity vowels, and such a proper understanding of his rightful place in the scheme of things, standing at the Dispatch box shovelling it out to people, who, if there was right order at all, would not even be elected to Parliament, let alone contemplate running government.
I really, really hope you are correct about his future prospects. It would turn me from amused, to laughing so hard I might pop a gasket.
I am banning myself from any discussion here as to the chances of a Rudd victory but I will make an observation about Turnbull. He has been impressive, clearly smart, but we know him and it can’t be just me that considers a Lathamesque meltdown inevitable, surely? Especially not here.
Here’s another scenario for your amusement:
1) Howard and Turnbull stitch up a deal (see 3) which allows him to leapfrog Costello and become leader.
2) He then appoints Howard as Governor-General.
3) Suddenly, Howard abandons his long-held support for the monarchy, Turnbull declares a republic, and appoints Howard as the country’s first President.
I emphasise, for your amusement (then again, anything’s possible, eh?)
More for completeness’ sake, I assume everyone thinks that ‘Abbott for PM’ is going no-where?
There’s something to that, James Hamilton. Turnbull has never stuck to anything. He’s the dilletante from Double Bay.
The only leader the Libs have got is the Golden Greek.
They could always try their luck with Alexandria again. Downer for PM? Got a nice “ring” to it?
Turnbull is a very presentable package.
He’s articulate and clever, but much less remote than John Hewson. He is new to the game, but he doeswn’t carry the baggage of Costello.
If Howard wins the General Election, then it is more likely to be business as usual and a Costello succession.
If Howard loses, then the Libs will have much soul-searching to do. Turnbull represents an avenue for the Libs back to the centre of political life and an opportunity to reinvite the Wets back into the party.
Costello should be hoping for a Liberal victory.
Turnbull may be rather less enthusiastic about victory in the short term.