The Poll Bludger has the good oil on Newspoll.
Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 last fortnight. Similarly, Kevin Rudd is up 1 per cent as preferred leader (to 44 per cent), and John Howard down 1 per cent (to 39 per cent).
Let’s see if we can predict media reactions.
I’m betting we’ll see at least one of five possible themes emerge (and I haven’t looked at the GG yet).
Howard’s latest bold policy moves will take time to permeate. (Forgetting that the tax cuts should have permeated by now).
It’s not too late for Peter Costello to seize the moment, but he won’t because Mr Howard is such a strong leader. (Whatevs. $weetie missed his moment to make history some time ago.)
The government can yet turn this around with its cunning reversal on economic management. (Lie, blame the states, etc. Variation of the first theme).
Seasoned observers don’t believe Labor’s lead is anywhere near as strong as the polls show. (Because they own the polls!)
Rudd has yet to have his policies scrutinised. (True, but he’s not going to give the government a chance to steal any more before the campaign starts.)
What we probably won’t see is:
Howard is probably stuffed, no matter what he does.
The government got killed in a car wreck on its way to the polls. Teach them to drive an old badly maintained Howard model.
Don’t count your chickens before they’ve bounced. Remember it’s not over until the dead cat sings.
Time for Howard to get revenge on the leakers and Costello by calling an election.
He’s wedged himself in with APEC.
Blimey …. that Newspoll has primary Vote: 48 -39.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22201124-661,00.html
Plus this lil nugget:
Seriously, tho, I reckon the Gazette will go some “we told you so!” line re their latter-day conversion to an anti-Andrews position.
PS By the way, Gazeditorial bunker this is me, Lefty E – author of your fab new GG name, and I like to call Andrews The Idiot Wind.
Like it? You can use it! I think it brings a strong narrative flavour to critique, with classic Orientalist overtones. Just your ticket. Think Kurosawa, big storms of idiocy racing across of the East China Sea.
Hmm?
What … no?
Well, bugger ya. But dont tell me I never give you nuthin.
Plus School Holidays and Football Finals – Howard wants to get his mug on the Telly at the MCG & the Telstra Stadium for the the AFL & NRL Grand Finals. Oh and don’t forget Spring Racing Carnival as well – I predict late Nov- First Week of December Poll.
Oh and you can rule out October 13th as well as there is the annual Telethon taking place and Ch 7 here in Perth won’t be too impressed as a lot of their resources here will be tied up with that.
“The survey did find support for the government’s handling of the Mohamed Haneef case, with 49 per cent approving and 36 per cent disapproving.”
A bit of a worry for the government. Only half the electorate thought they did a good job. That’s pretty poor when you consider that the Haneef case was about as straight forward as a terrorism situation is can be.
Kevin Rudd is pretending to be John Howard so the Liberals are really in front!
Liked what Antony Green had to say:
http://www.pollbludger.com/525#comment-23644
.. and I liked what STROP said, too.
I reckon 20-Oct, 27-Oct, or 10-Nov, 17-Nov-200, 24-Nov-2007.
I agree with Nabakov. There are plenty of more rabbits and pork barrels to go. Howard is cashed up and won’t risk leaving Rudd with a warchest to spend when he can blow it on propaganda.
Who knows, maybe another refugee ship will arrive or a bomb will go off in Australia? (hopefully not!).
I think some are getting a little bit left behind in the shift already underway in The Australian’s editorial policy. There have been much more guarded support of the government in recent weeks and the coverage of this latest Newspoll was pretty restrained. If they don’t follow the shift in power that is underway in Canberra it will weaken their influence. Mr Murdoch is a more pragmatic businessman than some think.
THe Shamaham speaks
Kevin07 Website launched.
Very Tech Savvy – Team Rodent should take note
Agreed, but it’s also probably a result of the casualty count they inflicted on themselves in the GG vs. psepho bloggers war.
Kim’s been on holidays out of intertubes range, don’t forget, and she tells me that up on the ranges, she ignored political news altogether!
It varies by issue, and often for personal reasons. Margaret Simons made the point in Crikey recently that the Andrews coverage was a function of Mitchell’s relationship to Keelty as a source. There’s also the fact that they’ve recruited some strong writers from elsewhere in the News empire and from Fairfax – and they gave Hedley Thomas a pretty free reign both in coverage and comment on the whole Haneef business. He did a good job on the whole too.
Already a thread on that, Frank!
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/08/07/rudd-the-t-shirt/
So they liked the way they handled Haneef, did they?
I suppose then, if Haneef is their 11/9, then indigine policy is gong to be their kids overboard ( in multifarious ways?).
Tragic, isn’t it?
For Shanahan the honeymoon continues.
Turns out the folks who greatly approved the Haneef expulsion were were old Coalition men. Nice base to work from.
Re the figures no the Haneef case, only 49 per cent of the public supported the Government’s handling of the case despite the Government being supported by both the ALP and the usual suspects in the tabloid media. Fifty-one per cent of voters are either opposed to or unconvinced by the bipartisan stance of the major parties. Given that a percentage of the electorate rely, at least in part, on partisan cues from their preferred party when deciding their stance on issues, this suggests that support for the Government’s handling of the Haneef case could have been reduced to an underwhelming minority had Labor deemed itself to be in a position of sufficient electoral strength to argue the case for key liberal democratic principles rather than outsourcing this responsibiliyt to the lawyers, the quality media and the minor parties.
After acknowledging Mark’s points in response, I think it remains the case that whilst Murdoch would prefer a Coalition government, if this is not a goer he will want to ensure that a Rudd Labor government is suitably indebted to him and his media outlets.
And finally, on the question of whether a switch from Howard to Costello could turn things around, my thinking is that it won’t, both because recent polls which have canvassed this issue suggest that it won’t, and also because there won’t be time before the election for Costello to reinvent his public persona as something broader and deeper than Treasurer cum Parliamentary gladiator. One imagines that ALP head office has, for some time, had a well-organised and targeted strategy up their sleeve to blitz Costello on the negatives of his current persona in the first weeks of his leadership. Such a bltiz would lose its sting after a few weeks but would probably be effective in the short period between a Costello accession and the coming election.
Oh DearMore wheels are falling off the IR wagon.
Given that the margin of error on these polls is 3%, what they won’t say is: no change, nothing to say really but stay tuned and if anything changes we’ll let you know. Just more bullshit, not enough questions asked of all concerned about what they hope/fear will happen over 2007-10 (dismissed by pundits as “the period between federal elections”, but for the rest of us the next three years of our lives).
Are you on drugs, Frank? If things improve for Howard just a tad he will rush to the polls, and fuck Channel 7 in Perth if they get in the way (mind you, big cheque for whatever it is the telethon is in aid of). This is why eastern staters deride sandgropers and regard even their most genuine needs as silly parochialism.
Quite right PS, nobody in the media went in harder on Kevin Andrews than the Oz.
I wont be happy or relax till Kevin is sitting on the GOVTs chest and driving a stake through its heart,if Labour wins what on earth will Bolt and Piers do
Commentary on the latest poll is much ado about sampling error.
As always, it”s Labor 55, Coalition 45.
July’s tactic, Haneef, changed nothing, just as June’s tactic, NT Aboriginal child abuse, changed nothing, just as beofe that Rudd’s wife business changed nothing, the budget changed nothing, and the union scare changed nothing.
August’s tactic will be, well, who knows? — Rudd secretly operates an internet porn operation?, Gillard and Combet together organised the kidnapping of Madelaine McCann?, Swan wants to make Islam the official national religion?
The Oz has policy agendas, they have tried to persuade Labor to adopt them by running the line that this is vital to their electoral sucess. Polls have refuted this hence this campaign against polls, bloggers etc. There has now been a tipping point and they now see that persisting with this argument will reduce their influence over a Labor govt. Paul Kelly, who has always voted Labor, wants to reprise the glory days of the late 1980s when The Oz parked itself to the right of Labor but not so far to the right as to lose influence.
Malcolm Colless has adopted the mantle of most confused commentator at the GG:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22198371-7583,00.html
Can anyone make any sense out of that?
Ratty Rallies the Troops.
Mr Howard said that while the Government was behind in the polls and commentators were writing off the Coalition’s chances, that was not the feeling he was getting while out on the hustings.
“No election is ever unwinnable or unloseable,” Mr Howard is understood to have told Liberal and National MPs this morning.
“The Labor Party is cocky now and they are thinking about the trappings of ministerial office.
“You know that we can win the election and you know that this is not a good replacement government.”
Mr Howard reminded the party room that the Keating Labor government had also appeared doomed a month before the 1993 election.
But Ratty forgets that Mike Willesee’s “Cake Shop” Question to Hewson killed the Lib’s chance of winning that Election.
Pecked to death by his own metaphors. He seems to be saying what even Shanahan is saying, which is: nothing Howard does is making a damn bit of difference. Colless would have looked less silly by just writing: “What Dennis said”.
Yeah I read it,sorta confused is Mr Colless,I,m still trying to work out where they dug him up from,maybe when the Election is over they can re bury him along with the Pater Devine.
What will Piers do
From the Crikey “Tip’s & Rumours” Page.
What’s the bet the Election will be in Early Dec, Ratty wouldn’t miss this for the world.
This may go some way to explain why the polls are looking so bad for the Coalition.
Howard has on a number of occasions stated that “Australians have never had it so good” although he backed off from that yesterday. Maybe because of this;
Australians sinking further into debt: ABS.
Personal bankruptcies are close to the highest point in two decades, worse now than at the height of the last recession in the early 1990s, despite the longest period of continuous economic growth ever recorded in Australia and the lowest rate of recorded unemployment in 33 years. http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/07/1999152.htm?section=australia
Howard claims that he doesn’t ‘sense’ the same feeling of disillusionment with his Govt has when previous Govts have changed.
Is he fooling himself? Asking the wrong people? Or is the comparison to Keating v Hewson apt? Trying to will himself to victory?
While the sustained and strong polling suggests “Kevin 07″ will get it up, I like many others won’t be satisfied until all the votes are counted…
m
Mark on 7 August 2007 at 1:29 pm
Malcolm Colless has adopted the mantle of most confused commentator at the GG:
[link]
Can anyone make any sense out of that?
Hi Mark, I just read that “commentary” by Colless and am gobsmacked at the mindless chatter he has put up for public consumption.
I think he should change his Doctor and see if he can get a better medication prescribed. They must be finding difficulty in recruiting proper journalists these days.
I know of a number of “Bloggers” that might be available to help out if they are truly stuck for talent.
Michael D on 7 August 2007 at 10:24 pm
“Howard claims that he doesn’t ’sense’ the same feeling of disillusionment with his Govt has when previous Govts have changed. ”
Michael, it might have something to do with his advancing years. ie His hearing is deteriorating and he just doesn’t hear the bells clanging.
His eyesight is definitely on the way out because he doesn’t seem to be able to read what the commentariat is saying and he sure as hell can’t read any of the mainstream political bloggs.
I don’t thing a more powerful hearing aid or new glasses would help at this late stage.
Here’s something that I don’t think many people have picked up on.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22200396-24218,00.html
You can bet your life that very few if any of the people present at that meeting would have had access to that report prior to the meeting.
Howard is too cunning to put such a question to them, knowing what Textor’s Report contained. I bet they feel as though an opportunity has passed them by, now. Serves the silly old bugger right.
Howard has been quoted as saying that “the times have suited me”.
With the latest revelation only one of a string of distracting spot-fires breaking out all over the place, it looks more like the planets are aligning for Rudd and Labor.
I bet Rudd has to pinch himself pretty well every day to make sure he isn’t dreaming. The Coalition is his most potent electoral weapon at present.
Nothing muddled about Colless.
Just a reversion to the normal malicious premeditated tripe the public gets from the tabloids after their brief flirtation with reality by way of the Dr. Haneef saga.