The one thing concerning the federal election that needs to be decided is when it is going to be held. The last possible date the election could be held is January 19th, 2008. But thanks to the wonders of internet bookies (from Andrew Leigh via Poll Bludger) you can see all the odds at Sportingbet. November 24th has the shortest odds at $4.00.
Andrew Bartlett already has that election pending feeling. And during the past week or so Crikey reported a number of rumours. One is that it won’t be till early next year. Another asked if the CHOGM conference in Uganda on November 21st will influence the timing. November 24th as a date gets a mention as the lease on Howard’s Eastwood Campaign office expires on the 1st of December this year.
And the Liberals have block-booked TV and radio advertising time for November.
So when will Howard call it? Feel free to speculate at will.
Well Howard will want to Avoid the Spet/October cause of APEC followed by Fottbal Finals and School Holidays which run in most states between the last week of Sept an the first 2 weeks of October and would result in a VERY high number of postal/absentee votes which means there wouldn’t be a result on the night if it’s a tight poll.
Also, I’m sure would want to attend CHOGM as it would be his last chance to mix with the Commonwealth leaders plus the fact that you don’t campaign during the Spring RAcing Carnival any message would be lost amongst the stories of the Cup etc.
I reckon he’ll go bang on Dec 1st.
And on a related subject, Bennelong has replaced Eden-Monaro as the Bell-Wether seat.
A Galaxy opinion poll of 800 Bennelong voters has Labor’s high-profile candidate Maxine McKew ahead in the Sydney based seat, with 47 per cent of the primary vote.
John Howard trails with 44 per cent.
The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, says the survey is telling.
“The swing for Labor to win office is about 4.5 per cent, which is about the swing in Bennelong,” he said.
“I think it’s fair to say that whoever wins government will win Bennelong. If the Government is returned, John Howard will win Bennelong. If Labor wins the election then I think John Howard will probably lose his own seat.”
Mr Green says Ms McKew is a real threat.
“The current opinion poll in Bennelong matches every opinion poll we’ve seen this year and would indicate John Howard will have trouble holding on to his own seat,” he said.
The election will not be called till after APEC is over.
No earlier than 24 November, 1 December or 8 December.
My best guess is 1 December.
November 3. He’s crazy if he calls it for any later date than that. Holding out to December would be a clear cut sign of desperation and Labor would be able to make hay of the near-unprecedented length and — by that point — utterly stultifying boredom of the electoral campaign (IIRC only one other election has ever been called for December). Much as it may be against his instincts Howard has to go in quick, right after APEC, calmly emphasising his strengths and sticking with one message on Rudd, in his current approach he’s managed to combine scattershot accuracy and wearying predictability — a fatal combination if maintained much longer.
Followup question: When will the date of the election be announced?
Bonus points: When will the election be called (Parliament dissolved, writs issued etc)?
d
Shaun Cronin:
I will celebrate – and apologize loud-and-long – if the federal election is held at all.
I await with interest the particular stunt that delays or suspends the election. Will it be a terrorism scare? Will it be the tsunami of the US sub-prime loans collapse hitting our economy? Will it be …. what? In my opinion, the risk of this actually happening to Australians probably increases with the likelihood that Mr Howard himself will suffer the humiliation of being defeated in his own blue-ribbon Liberal seat.
Before you scoff that it couldn’t possibly happen here, talk to migrants who have seen what did happen in their old homelands ….
“I will celebrate – and apologize loud-and-long – if the federal election is held at all.”
It will be held, Howard has tried but failed to have a strong grip over the other pockets of federal power ( army, judges and press), he has no political control over the states (states have value because they divide political power). Yes Howard is a right wing nutter and he may dream of having no oppositional but in reality he is only one small person within the political elite, a small person with waining power.
To not hold the election he needs a lot more than a majority in the house of representatives and the senate. Just for starters, the liberal party as a whole have shown themselves to be a spineless lot as they watched the party destroyed ( I can’t talk I was once a member of the young libs), but I think there is a point where even the spineless would draw a line.
I am getting the increasing feeling that Howard will not be there to call the next election.
Downer being forced to say again that no-one is plotting against him is telling.
Losing to Maxine in Bennelong may well be something he can’t endure the thought of.
The trend in opinion polls show on Ozpolitics charts shows the government has been making very slow but also very steady progress. Its been going up at about a percent or two a month since March which extrapolates to getting to about 50% by December. If I were a Liberal party strategist I would want as long as possible until the election to give that trend time to play out.
Agree that they will probably want to hold it off… but not sure what you’re referring to about a slow Liberal comeback. Practically nothing is changing…
I think that Frank is correct. The “not at all” scenario does not stack up (not that I have’nt had those thought my self), it takes really big balls to be that stupid, not a good look on a little man. Howard loves the be seen with other world leaders so the CHOGM will be an event that he will want to keep Rudd away from for as long as possible. Howard started his international hobknobbing with CHOGM and it would be fitting to end there. And in his mind there is always the chance that he will win the election.
I’m going with my FC comrade Leinad on Nov 4 for the sole reason I will be overseas Nov 10-Jan 4 and I can’t bear the thought of missing the thing.
It is unlikely to be Nov 3 due to the Melbourne cup weekend in Victoria.
The earliest likely date appears to be 20 October, for which writs would be issued on 11 September.
The next likely dates are 10, 17, 24 Nov, then 1, 8, 15 Dec (which is the latest realistice practical date).
Oh bother. I am gonna miss it entirely, aren’t I? Fiddlesticks!
It’s gotta be in November. Maybe at the latest on the 1st of December. Anything later would be suicide for Howard, campaigning during silly season would mean instant death for the government.
Swio, the recent polls are tracking back to Labor and the practical upshot of this is that the Government hasn’t really made up any ground at all from where the polls were months ago.
Don’t be surprised to see the next poll showing a slight movement away from the Government yet again, thanks to the interest rates rise and the public’s impatience with the Government’s increasingly desperate and panicky pork-barrelling and attempted interference in State politics. I think it’s not becoming obvious that people are a wake-up to their tactics and aren’t having it.
I’m one who is also of the opinion that the PM will have been so spooked by the polling in his own electorate that he will suddenly “do a hammy” and possibly very soon. I suspect he may even use his daughter’s impending labour to justify deciding to resign to spend more time with his family, or hark back to Janette’s cancer scare. Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he jumps ship before the election is called.
It’s all pure speculation (fun anyway of course) but I couldn’t see Howard walking away voluntarily in a million years. Being prime minister is his life, quite literally I suspect. Once it’s over he’ll decline instantly into a boring irrelevant old man, completely out of touch with the contemporary world, and he must know it.
Moreover I’m sure he doesn’t believe for a moment that he’ll lose the election. He’s let the mask of humility slip a couple of times in interviews with Kerry O’Brien. He’s convinced that he’s the master campaigner and he’ll win. And I for one won’t be rushing off to Centrebet just yet … or at all, actually. Forecasting election outcomes is a pointless mug’s game.
You can amuse yourself with imagining a January 19th election date and how that would play our over the Christmas/New Year collective summer coma. Would we see JHo turning up for the toss at the Boxing Day test to do some electioneering? Rudd streaking across the SCG on January 2nd wearing nothing but a Kevin 07 sticker strategically placed over his principles?
Sorry Graham but I don’t think Howard is stupid (or that desperate) to suspend the election. I agree with Charles that Howard would need a hell of a lot more support to even consider that idea.
I’m going with the November 24th crowd though December 1st is a good bet.
God, I really hope it’s not Nov 24 or Dec 1, I was hoping to get *some* media coverage for another event on 29-30 November.
I’m with Ken Lovell.
As long as the relentless polling keeps throwing J-Ho the tiniest slivers of hope, he’ll hang on. the AC-Neilsen poll today informs the idea that the voting public are slowly tracking back to the Liberals (have a look at the graphs on Ozpolitics). I wouldn’t bet against them dragging out the election until January if they think the trend lines will continue the way they are.
10 November. For Howard, to go earlier would be to cut his own throat while to leave it too late makes him look like a loser and builds momentum for change.
The date is lucky for the Libs in 1949 and 1955. Enough time to get the overall result (who’s going to form government, not necessarily every single seat) over before CHOGM – and this is why the election (and the campaign) can’t extend over late November.
Frank, I’ve gone you about this nonsense in a previous post.
First, a federal election is always big news. Colourfully-dressed dwarves thumping magnificent animals will not displace policy announcements. Newspapers will simply print bigger editions if the election campaign and the racing carnival coincide.
Second, this tactic favours the incumbent if the outlook for the incumbent is good and the opposition is weak. Neither of these factors applies now. The last time this was tried was in 1999 by Jeff Kennett, who overestimated his government’s outlook and underestimated his opposition: it is wrong to assume that John Howard has learned nothing from this experience. It is a mistake to assume that the most vital state in the coming election, Queensland, is full of people who give a shit about the AFL. It is a mistake to assume that people outside Melbourne spend any time before or after the first Tuesday in November focused on horse racing, or linking it to wider issues.
Elections were not called off 1939-45, nor in 2001. Australia is different to other countries, and people who think we are in a similar position today to, say, Hungary 1938 or Cambodia 1972 or Iraq 2002 understands neither Australia today nor their country of origin.
So, having talked, listened and considered carefully, I’m going the scoff.
swio, polls have a margin of error of about 3%. This means that any movement less than 3% is insignificant. Polling results of 56-44 or 54-46 throughout the year reflect no significant change, and all the analysis to the contrary is so much bullshit.
Ken, I believe Howard thinks that if he looks confident without being cocky, he might just turn things around. He reads the polls, but he knows that if he mopes around with a defeatist attitude then what little chance he & his has evaporates for all time.
As David Marr said on Insiders, the only way it will go to 19 January is if Howard ceases to be leader, and Costello wants more time to establish his media presence as PM. This isn’t going to happen, so forget it.
As I predict the election will be over and the count all but finalised, the media at this point will be full of:
* soft analyses of the new PM, new Treasurer and other ministers, by journos wrking for media outlets who have “distinguished” themselves as “insiders’ to the current government and who want to continue as political journalists.
* smart-arse told-you-so pieces on how Howard threw it all away and how he could won if only …
* in-depth focus on the remaining seats to be decided, and the issues in parts of Australia you’ve never been to or heard of
* outbursts from newly-elected wackas who are probably going to pull a lot of stunts in the new parliament, like Pauline Hanson or Harry Quick
* outbursts from Libs and Nats suffering relevance deprivation syndrome
* stories on Lib/Nat ministers who have gone to work for Macquarie Bank/some spin-doctor outfit/some organisation they regulated – with a flurry of outrage about there being no cooling-off period between working for regulators and regulated, which will dissipate quickly
* pieces on new ministers wasting no time, sacking senior public servants etc.
* some new Labor minister will get caught in a scandal and get turfed within weeks of taking office. I have no idea who, or how, but it always happens with new governments
* cricket
Good luck Laura.
For those who think the election won’t be held, perhaps you should put a bet on “January or beyond”. The odds are 13:1, so for $77,000, you can guarantee that you’ll be a millionaire in the new police state.
It’s amazing how many words we can waste about this stuff… reading something into every poll fluctuation.
Sure, you can’t right Howard off… quite. But then it’s certainly not 50:50 either. More like 85:15, I’d say.
I heard Rudd say on TV the election would be called in five weeks. That’s 15 September. How long a campaign would Howard like? Would he prefer a short one or a long one? Would it make any difference.
Mercifully it would be short……. 13 October anyone?
Mike Stasse
There’s a mandatory six-week campaining period Mike, so for it to be held on 13 October Howard would have to call it before APEC, so no chance I’m afraid.
Here’s one off the wall, but the UN climate metting in Bali – the 3rd meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol – is booked in for Dec 3-14.
Could go either way, I guess. Maybe Howard would like to grandstand on climate on the UN stage during the election campaign (question over the legitimacy of sending a representation when in caretaker mode, of course). Or maybe he wants to make sure the campaign is well and truly over before he gets embarassed by the UN meeting once again.
I’d go for the latter. December 1 at the latest, but potentially much much sooner.
December 1 or not long before would be a pain on the climate front – no effective government representation at Bali would be very sad…
I’m curious as to why people would think that the school holidays, the football finals or the Melbourne Cup would stop John Howard from calling an election when all three that he has called so far have included one or more of them (and 1998 had the added element of having polling day on a long weekend in several states).
The next likely interest rate rise is on Melbourne cup day.
“For those who think the election wonâ??t be held, perhaps you should put a bet on â??January or beyondâ??. The odds are 13:1, so for $77,000, you can guarantee that youâ??ll be a millionaire in the new police state.” says Andrew Leigh.
Looks like a bit of a long shot but… when has Howard shown any sign of being a great lover of the Westminster system of government? Only when it was the means of his assuming power, as far as I can gather. Since then, he has been inclined to trash most of it’s conventions.
There is another Christian Leo, whose advice he might be taking comfort from; though coloured, as it certainly would be.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pervez_Musharraf
With the wildcard of an APEC summit, as an opportunity, our Johny is just itching to prove his man of steel credentials to his ol’ buddy, Dubbya.
That bet might just work out.
“A Galaxy opinion poll of 800 Bennelong voters has Labor’s high-profile candidate Maxine McKew ahead in the Sydney based seat, with 47 per cent of the primary vote.
John Howard trails with 44 per cent.”
McKew is at $2.25 at Centrebet and Howard is at $1.50.
Either the opinion poll is wrong or there is easy money to be made by backing McKew.
Latest rumour from Crikey:
The mailman always knows. Whilst out and about on the “Your Rights At Work” campaign in the weekend, a number of Australia Post employees (office and delivery staff) told me that they were told that they are unable to take leave in October. One has had his Long Service Leave (planned for a number of months) rescinded. Now why would that be?
In 1998 and 2001 (though arguably not 2004) Howard was leading. This time he will (presumably) be coming from behind. The argument (such as it is) is that a crowded media makes it harder to close the gap and hence advantages the frontrunner, so would have helped him previously but may hinder him now.
From the department of answered prayers…
Read it and weep ….
“I have always maintained that I would remain leader of the Parliamentary Liberal Party as long as it was in the best interests of the country and as long as the party wanted me to lead.
“In recent weeks, I came to the view that the Government under my leadership had suffered a loss of support that may prove fatal at the election due within months. This loss of support did not seem related to the policies of the Government – which remain sound – but to the notion that my time as leader was up.
“Clearly, I do not believe a defeat of the coalition at the election is in the best interests of the country. I sounded out my colleagues and asked for brutal and frank advice. They gave me such advice, but left the final decision in my hands.
“Accordingly, I have decided today to step down from the leadership of the Parliamentary Liberal Party and vacate my seat of Bennelong at the forthcoming election. I have done so because I do not believe it is in the best interests of the country for a Labor Government to be elected. I came to the conclusion that the coalition had a much better chance of being re-elected with a new leader, one with a long-term commitment to the people of Australia.
“Next Tuesday, the Parliamentary Party will meet to select a new leader. As I have said on many occasions, the party has a ready-made replacement in Peter Costello.
“I thank my colleagues for their support during an exhilarating parliamentary career, particularly the last 11 as Prime Minister. I am proud of the achievements of our Government. Thanks to the outstanding work of successive coalition teams, I leave this role with the nation in much better shape than in which we found it. I would like to thank my family and the Australian people for helping to make Australia better.
“I am confident that this change will re-energise the Australian community’s support for a government that has delivered sustained prosperity, high employment, low inflation and international competitiveness – the cornerstones of our Australian way of life.
“My time may be up, but now is not the time to put our nation at risk by voting against a Government that has delivered everything it promised – and more”
How does that make you feel? Thank Crikey.
Don’t you love the WA Libs.
I just hope none of these “senior figures” are involved in the federal Campaign.
I think we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves here. I want to know what day the Queensland Liberals are going to announce that Flegg/McArdle have been overthrown by Nicholls/Stevens. I love to see a good Liberal brawl but how about declaring a winner.
No way! With inflation/hyperinflation that would be worth diddly-squat …. better to spend the money now: eat, drink and be merry …. .
Charles and Shaun:
Appreciate your viewpoints, which are quite logical …. but Howard, despite his well-cultivated media image as staid and steady, appears to me as a very sharp gambler – desperate perhaps and not stupid at all – but still a high-stakes gambler; a ruthless gambler. Joe2 has a point too about his contempt for rules.
I still think he will try a really bold stunt. Whatever it is, it would have to have the full – and enthusiastic – support of the states and all sorts of other entities. That’s why I suggested he might try a terrorist threat or somesuch.
The sooner he resigns the safer we will be; before tommorrow would be fine!.
This comment by retiring WA MHR Graham Edwards is telling, re Election Date.
With the election due to be called any day, Mr Edwards said he wanted to cover a range of issues “in making probably my last speech in the house”.
Going back to why Elections aren’t held during school holidays, I’m pretty sure one reason is because of the non-availability of local schools as polling booths as I believe ( stand to be corrected on this) it is the relevant State Education Department’s policies not to make schools available for public use during school breaks.