As part of LP’s coverage of the election campaign, I’ll be reporting on what’s happening in the seat of Stirling, in Western Australia, one of the seats that the Labor Party is eager to win back from the Libs.
In short, Stirling is a very marginal seat that has changed hands regularly since it was created in 1955. It doesnâ??t, however, always swing with changes of government â?? it isnâ??t really a bellwether seat. Laborâ??s Ron Edwards held the seat for 10 years, and lost to Eoin Cameron in 1993. (My favourite Cameron story is when he told Noel Crichton-Brown that â??if you love the Liberal Party as much as you say you do, you should resign immediatelyâ??.) He lost in 1998 to Laborâ??s Jann McFarlane, who lost in 2004 to real-estate agent and former political staffer Michael Keenan.
The current margin is 2% – around 1750 votes.
Probably the main explanation for Stirlingâ??s marginalia is its economic diversity. You can pretty much split the seat down the middle, using the Mitchell Freeway as a line, into the lower and working class suburbs in the East, and the middle to upper-middle beachside suburbs of the West.
There are also a few significant ethnic communities â?? Macedonian communities in the Stirling and Balcatta areas, and African communities (including a large Sudanese community, presumably to Keenanâ??s chagrin) in Balga and Mirrabooka.
These communities may play an important role in a seat with a wafer-thin margin â?? Andrewâ??s dog whistling on the immigration issue have the potential to cost his party the seat, as Keenan was forced to come out in the local media and defend his ministerâ??s comments shortly after they were made.
As Mark pointed out earlier this year, defence seems to be an issue thatâ??s popping up in internal polling of the seat. If thatâ??s true, then Keenan must have been very upset with Kim Beazleyâ??s contribution to the seat. While still Labor leader Beazley recruited Peter Tinley to run for the seat. Tinley, a former SAS officer with recent service in Afghanistan and Iraq, played an important role in the defining moment Howardâ??s 2001 campaign, the boarding of the SS Tampa.
Tinley joined the ALP after this event â?? he says his involvement with what he felt was an illegal invasion of another nationâ??s sovereign territory, and the inappropriate use of the military by the Howard Government for political ends, eventually lead him to quit the armed services. His disappointment and anger grew after the invasion of Iraq â?? what he describes as a â??moral blunderâ??. Since leaving the army, he has been running his own successful paving business.
Tinley has been fairly visible in the electorate for some months, doorknocking and conducting regular raids to local shopping centres. His campaign literature has been based around the themes of foreign policy, WorkChoices, climate change. His slogan has been the somewhat predictable â??Fighting for Stirlingâ??.
Keenan, on the other hand, has been running largely on local issues that are the responsibility of state government such as roads, hoons and crime, although he recently sent out a colour flier lauding the Howard Governmentâ??s â??Practical. Commonsense. Balanced.â?? approach to climate change.
His website shows a rolling set of photos of the electorate, although there is a striking lack of images of anything east of the Freeway. I guess those suburbs donâ??t make for as pretty a front page. He also has his head on every second bus-stop in the seat, carrying his slogan of â??Local Issues. Local Actionâ??.
According to Anthony Greenâ??s site, the Greens, Citizens Electoral Council and the Christian Democrats have also declared candidates for the November 24 poll â?? although none of these appear to have much of a local presence or campaign to date. The LDP also lists the blogosphere’s very own Sam Ward as their candidate for the seat.
Published polling for the seat is inconclusive, although Centrebet has Labor as the favourite. From what Iâ??ve heard, party polling suggests the favourite has changed a number of times over the last year. It will definitely be an interesting seat to watch. If you, or someone you know, live in the seat, feel free to drop me a line.
Anna,
As you correctly say Stirling is marginal, but not bellwether – for the simple reason that no WA seat is closely correlated with federal results. As you would know, we always have our own reasons for voting the way we do and what happens over East is less important to us.
I think Keenan knows this, which is why he is running on local issues. Personally, although I do not live in the seat (I am close), I think Tinley is making a mistake on the issues he is running on. I do not think he can run on any others, though, as the local issues causing pain are in the control of the state government.
BTW – if you are on Facebook, join Perth Bloggers and perhaps we can organise some local drinks during the campaign.
“Keenan has been running largely on local issues that are the responsibility of state government such as roads, hoons and crime”
oh dear. Hoons? I grew up in Balcatta and I guess I am the only expert in Australia on ‘hoons’ so I’d better say somethign. If he is interested in producing constructive outcomes, why doesn’t he discuss the issue with the State members for Joondalup and Wanneroo (see Hansard discussion here) regarding the blue light drags at Wanneroo Raceway (more detail). Apparently numbers declined, I wonder why?
I used to go to the blue light drags in my 351 Clevo XD, but then I moved to Sydney… Some foolish cop probably decided booking ‘hoons’ racing at the blue light drags was a legitimate way to make his quota for the week. Word of this sort of behaviour spreads extremely quickly now in the age of online sociality. Enthusiasts know that defect notices are a weapon of social control, and have little to do with technical safety of vehicles.
‘Hoons’ that hang out at Tuart Hill Macca’s are actually young people using the space to socialise, usually before and after ‘going out’, but that is another issue to do with the constitution of ethnic families and young men in particular finding a space of their own.
oh my comment is in moderation, too many links I suspect
Glen – I assume you’re not in WA anymore? You might find it amusing to learn that Keenan’s office is next door to the Tuart Hill Macca’s now!
Strange as it may seem – my children have been used in a photo shoot with Peter Tinley.
He is a good bloke (as most of the SASR are), just on the wrong side of the political fence for me. Most of the SASR guys I have spoken to say he is a hypocrit and strongly disagree with his opinions on Iraq and Afghanistan. He didn’t make his views widely known while he was in the service.
Keenan has been working the electorate hard and I reckon this will be a nail biter.
Andrew: there’s actually a blog meetup tomorrow night at the Brass Monkey…details here.
How is Tinley a hypocrite?
Did he say, while in the service, that he supported the government’s policies?
Spiros – you may not be aware of this, but the ADF is a volunteer organisation. At any time you can say “I do not want to do this.” Operational deployments are highly sought after. If he did not support the actions, all he had to do was say so, and somebody else would have stepped up. The fact that he didn’t do this makes him a hypocrit.
I would have called that being a professional, Razor. Half of my clients need a good smack with the clue-stick but I still do what they require me to do because that’s my job.
Razor, to begin with, the ALP supports the deployment in Afghanistan, and always has done, so even on your definition of a hypocrite, Tinley isn’t a hypocrite (note the spelling) on that score.
But of course your definition of hypocrite is ludicrous. As an army officer, Tinley had a duty to put aside his personal opinions, whatever they may have been, to serve his country. And of course you don’t know that he was against the Iraq deployment from the get-go. He might, like so many people, have supported it initially and then come to the view that it was a bad idea.
More generally, public servants are there to implement government policy. That is what they get paid to do. There might be, and probably are, lots of public servants in WA who disagree with the policies of the Carpenter Government. That they countinue working in their jobs doesn’t make them hypocrites.
Spiros – so he was for it before he was against it! He fits right in with a lot of the left then.
One of the major factors that caused me to resign my commission was my disagreement with policy.
There is a significant difference between not being happy about something and being morally against it, as appears to be the claim in Tinley’s case.
“so he was for it before he was against it! He fits right in with a lot of the left then.”
It is possible for a person to change their mind when new …[what is the word I'm looking for?]… evidence comes to light.
Of course, in the post-modern parallel universe of the Right, evidence is irrelevant.
Whereas EVIDENCE!!!! is another matter altogether.
yeah, Sydney. omg, that is funny. Keenan is hanging out with teh hoonery…
The question of Sudanese refugees is very important for certain people in the electorate. My parents are staunch Liberal voters and have been for as long as I have been alive. One issue where we have massive arguments is the question of cultural difference and the effect this has on them. There is a real issue of kids coming from places where they have had traumatic experiences and adjusting to Australian culture. Not in the sense of assimilation, even though this is how it is framed by the reactionary conservatives, but in giving the refugees the necessary cultural and psychological skills to work through their trauma. By framing the issue as a rejection of Australian culture, or worse by simply seeing them as ‘black’ and ‘different’ and therefore unable to ‘fit in’, another kind of trauma is repeated, not with actual violence, but what Pierre Bourdieu called ‘symbolic violence’.
A proper infrastructure needs to be set up to help the refugee kids adjust to being a kid in Australia. Being a kid is traumatic enough, and being constantly reminded of one’s difference in a negative way is more traumatic. There have been various initiatives by refugeee advocacy groups in the eastern states to help kids adjust by giving them the necessary resources to construct a new way of looking at themselves. This is crucial for refugee kids to be able to develop a sense of pride in themselves and onfidence to exist in a place where they are very different (understood positively).
The problem for established members of the area is that they have bought into the rhetoric of the reactionary conservatives and believe that the refugees are going to somehow pollute their comfortable existence (which they have created through extreme hard work and sacrifice, don’t forget Stirling was once a working class area, and changes to the composition of the class structure have been wrought in part by the upward mobility of its constituents). I remind my parents that no refugee will ever stop them from having a bbq; trying to tie it into the valorised iconic location of the arvo barbie in contemporary culture and nationalist identities. My point is that the real effect they have on their lives (beyond specific contexts such as schools) is very limited, if not non-existent. The visibility of ‘blackness’ is enough to freak them out.
Spiros, if you think that because the intel on NBC capability in Iraq was wrong, that made liberating the Iraqi people wrong, then you and anyone else who thinks that that was the only justifiable reason for removing Hussein are blind to the moral depravity of his regime.
Perhaps what Spiros means is that someone in the ADF might have thought that getting rid of Saddam, stabilising the region etc etc were great ideas, then realised that the whole thing was planned and run so awfully that they couldn’t support it in the current form.
i.e. that the REALITIES (!!!) of the situation outweighed the albeit excellent IDEA (!!!!) of getting rid of Saddam.
And if he didn’t go he wouldn’t have know what he was talking about because he wasn’t there.
Ho hum.
â??Fighting for Stirlingâ??.[wince]
Was “Paving the Way” being used?
FDB, that’s a little too much nuance for Razor.
That is what is I meant, FDB. I thought even Razor couldn’t miss miss the point.
Anyway, Tinley will piss it in. Remember where you heard it first.
Anna, the “hoons” theme while ostensibly local is actually nationwide. The Fin noted today the Nats’ candidate for Flynn is vowing to banish hoons and drag racing and the sole bit of propaganda we’ve had from the Liberal candidate for Brisbane only talked about drag racing (down Brunswick St, I presume, though I’ve never seen any of it!)… Must have come from a focus group somewhere!
And you’d hope in a positive way Glen.
Yes exactly, I couldn’t put it as clearly and succinctly myself. Education is the key, it’s not only valued in our culture but fits in with the aspirations of the refugees too. I don’t think I’ve met a prouder Mum than a refugee mother from Afghanistan whose son made it to head boy at his local High School – in the electorate of Stirling if I’ve got my geography right.
Not everyone will make it to this level but schools (and we’re almost entirely talking State Schools here) are excellent ways of creating involvement. The life skills they teach, the feeling of progress being made, and just being part of a community. Kids tend to learn faster than adults, especially in languages and while that’s a source of frustration for the adults, it’s also vicarious success for parents.
There was a program run out of Balga TAFE where mothers of kids at the local schools would be taught English together – it’s not just instruction but bonding them together as a group and bonding them to the school.
It’s a small part of a complex issue but a more productive approach than there’ll be a test at the end of the week approach of a citizenship test.
Anna,
Forget any sort of Political news in WA for the next few days – something more important has cropped up
I might add this might stop Keenan’s push (and other Libs including Judi Moylan’s) “Tough on Hoons” Bullshit – especially as Cousins is a hero in Stirling -)
Advice to all politicians and political parties in WA:
Pull your ad spend for the next two days (at least) and don’t even bother making any announcements.
Mark, the hoons thing has been big in WA for a few years now. Obviously we are so ahead of our time.
And now, thanks to Ben, they’ll probably all start going topless, too. Yay. This would certainly be the time for Rudd to get out any unpleasant ideas.
Razor – any chance of spilling which photo the kids were in?!
Sorry Anna – I prefer the annonyminity. Let it be said that you can pick your friends, but you can’t pick your relatives. And I should have said wife and kids.
Yeah well I can remember hoons well before the current problems I think when I was a lad(I,m 61 now) may have been one myself,FORD V8 leather jacket long hair fag in hand doing the city block looking for girls,Bernies hotted up cars ect.
And when I was younger I used to hang about at the snake pit think I was about 10,my cousin used to take me in his Ford Merc, but however the hoons think is big on Talkback and that glorious joke that says its a newpaper in Perth when it finds time from bashing the Labour Party.
Anyway Hi Frank I missed Howard on pr this morning but had had a shot at the local Liberal over his comments on Howard and saying not his fault on Interest rate,rang in to remind his of the song and dance he made when Rudd made the same blue,he just denied it.
Fair enough, from one anonymous blogger to another! I think I know which one it was though – they are very cute!
Ossy Park Hospital? Thanks for the compliment.
I am running for this seat for the LDP.
Well you’ll get a lot of blog hits from the Socialist Alliance Dirt Unit out of that decision.
I doubt many people for hoon Brunswick street, Mark. Tailgating the 199 bus is no revhead’s idea of a good time. Ann street would be a better bet. A couple of years ago, if one timed the lights right at about 6 in the morning, one could get a nice run from the Valley Mall all the way to the South East Freeway without hitting a single red.
But a better place for racing in the division of Brisbane: the 13km stretch of Samford-Enoggera-Kelvin Grove Road. Three lanes of it for most of its length. Pretty straight, plus a nice wide curve around Alderley. All the way from Ferny Grove to the Normanby underpass.
Not that I’ve ever hooned.
True!
Not that, etc…
I’m resident in Curtin (next door to Stirling), which is practically WA’s safest seat for L-NP. So far I haven’t received a single brochure from Julie Bishop, and there seems to be a distinct lack of posters and corflutes in front yards. Our bus shelters are mercifully free of ads. No prizes for where Bishop’s electorate allowances, slush funds etc. have been diverted to!
Harking back to Poll Bludger’s excellent analysis of Stirling a few months ago, I wonder whether a “doctor’s wives” effect will play out in this electorate for 2007 – there was a tiny swing towards the ALP in most of the wealthier beachside booths in 2004, whereas more middling mortgage-belt suburbs like Nollamara, Yokine and Dianella in the east swung conservative. Interestingly, so did the battler’s suburbs of Mirrabooka and Balaga, although their 2PP results were still strongly towards the ALP. How much will these eastern booths bite back against SerfChoices, interst rate rises etc?
One weakness with the doctor’s wives argument is that the beachside suburbs of Stirling might have relatively few small-l type Liberals (who are presumably even more sick of Howard than they were in 2004, and won’t have a Latham to scare them back into the fold) but more nouveau-riche or aspirational voters. The latter group might well credit Howard with WA’s boom times, or don’t really care as they are too busy cashing in.
I’ll agree on one thing Anna, you Sandgropers certainly do things differently … but at least you aren’t Queenslanders
By the way … why didn’t Ben run? It kind of worked last time!
That’s why they cuffed him. Although I reckon he could out run them even when cuffed.
He is probably on the Stirling Electoral Role!!
Where did that e sneak in? Roll not Role! – must have been in Ben’s pocket.
Thanks for noticing my mention of you in the post, yobbo!
Are you going to blog your experiences?
Maybe he’s a stirling electoral role model.
Thanks, Homer.
Ophuph,
I was talking with one of Julie’s staff a few days ago. Their perspective was that, in some areas of Curtin at least, actively canvassing votes is “simply not done” and hurts both the fund raising and the vote.
Julie’s campaigns have always been low key. No need to, nor any sense in, doing otherwise.
I would imagine electorates like Melbourne Ports would be similar in that.
small key maybe.
This leading up Keenan’s site:
“I said FRIES!”
Anna Winter:
I shall be watching from the other side of the country.
I haven’t much time for Labor because it is merely the de facto “left-wing” of the Liberals.
However, at this time in Australia’s history, when we can’t avoid being further entangled in other people’s wars, we do need a few people with real-world active military service behind them in the parliament. Having a few such veterans in the last parliament, in addition to Viet-Nam War veteran Graeme Edwards, would have prevented some egregious blunders.
Yes, I am well aware that over the years there have been some dud ex-servicemen, real shockers, wasting oxygen in the parliament and functioning as mobile rubber-stamps [no, not John Gorton or Tom Uren, they were great]….. but right now, I think it is well worth taking the risk and electing someone with direct personal experience of the realities of war.
Razor:
Sorry old chap, have to agree with Skribe this time
Tinley might be good or bad – who knows? – but he was definitely professional.
I remain unimpressed by the grizzling of any Mess claque. Such whingers seem to have forgotten that their loyalty is to the Commonwealth Of Australia [currently that is expressed as being to Her Majesty] and not to some political club or another and certainly not to a specific politician, whether he fancies himself as the ultimate ruler or not. As for leaving the ADF at the drop of a hat: things have changed a lot since my day but “Starship Troopers” hasn’t become the personnel administration manual just yet, has it?
Graham Bell, you make me laugh.
Anthony:
You’ve got me worried now …. it hasn’t, has it? :-O
Yobbo:
Sorry. Meant to say it before …. Good Luck!!
Goodness what a dignified LOL.
I’ll try and get back to blogging soon, at the moment I’m working on actual work. (Not politics).
Suffice to say that my chances range from very slim to none in any case, and I don’t see myself doing any letterboxing or baby kissing, although I’d be quite happy to go on TV and rant if the media decided it would be worth the giggle.
Get ol’ Geeves Torre to do a piece for the Worst, Yobbo. He’d jump at it.
I was off to the opera and my Hansom cab was waiting.
Not sure Graham, given that Starship Troopers was a satire a decade early, it should be operational in ooooh 25 minutes.
Anna,
What do you think of Sattler’s “Pollie Free Zone” He’s a bloody hypocrite as he’s the first to scream blue murder if he can’t get one to respond to his latest moral outrage/issue of the minute.
I suppose 6PR will have to rely onSimon “Shorter Liam Bartlett” for it’s political commentry.
I haven’t heard Sattler in a while, Frank. Is he refusing to have them on his show?
Yep, he’s banning “all politicians and candidates cos he doesn’t believe what they say” to paraphrase the poor man’s Stan Zemanek.
Obviously he can’t pull any of the big names!
Apparently the other day he was contacted by Rudd’s team to appear and he knocked them back – apparently he doesn’t want to be lumbered with equal time between the parties. Says it causes “problems”
I think he’s still pining for the days of another Blurton type tragedy.
I’ve put a Channel Ten news report about Stirling on YouTube. I was going to post it on my site but I thought better of it.
Yobbo:
Letterboxing usually annoys the hell out of voters so best avoid wasting trees that way.
Doorknocking annoys half the populace …. and their savage attack dogs too …. but the other half love it. Plan your bladder-emptying halts before you start though — there’s only so much tea and coffee the human body can take before something goes bang. Better get your serum cholesterol checked after polling day too – it’s all the cream they put on the scones that does it. Spikes in voting patterns at specific polling places correlate with areas that have been well-doorknocked.
Anna,
What are your thoughts on today’s Westpoll ?
I don’t think much of Westpoll ever, really. I’ve been polled by them once before, and it wasn’t very scientific. Armstrong likes to think of himself as a political player, who influences elections, and Westpoll should always be seen in this light.
I’m sure William Bowe over at PollBludger would be interested in that comment, as apparently one of the posters has alleged that according to a 3rd party source at The West, the paper “suggests” that Pattersons target portions of the electorate which have a large coaliton vote.
From what I’ve heard, individual staff can override the calling function and poll whoever they like…