Yesterday the WA Labor Party took the strange step of releasing its internal polling publicly, rather than pretending to some journo that it was an uncontrolled leak. They claim that Labor faces losing the election on Saturday, and are hoping that much of the swing away from them is a protest vote, that people don’t really want to elect Colin Barnett.
When polling was “leaked” in the usual way last week, Joe Spagnolo wrote that:
Labor is still quietly confident of victory.
It just doesn’t want to show it.
Labor still believes that come election day, voters will not want to bank on a Coalition which has changed leaders four times in three years.
It just wants to make sure that the expected protest vote doesn’t become a protest of tsunami proportions.
But after yesterday’s performance, “quietly confident” is not a phrase I would use to describe them. It looks like they really are worried. The punters, not so much.
In writing a post about the last week of the election, it occurs to me that there’s nothing much to say on actual issues. The main ones:
The mining boom and how to best manage it. Liberal Senators are getting involved, claiming that Carpenter and Rudd are conspiring to keep the fact that Japanese gas outfit Inpex has decided to pull out of WA and build a $15 billion processing plant near Darwin instead.
The environment. Labor is running attack ads about the Liberals’ support of uranium mining, with a woman asking which streets would be used to transport the uranium, which schools will it have to drive past? The Libs have assumed that similar scare tactics will be used about their GM stance, and so have launched a “pre-emptive strike“.
Health. The Liberal Party will “save” an old inner-city hospital because it’s close to where the doctors live. They have also promised to establish a minister for mental health in one of their few promises that isn’t one to reverse a Labor decision.
Transport. Labor is going to build another train line and a will also introduce a tram line along another major road. The Liberals will release their policy “in the week before the election”, but will probably steal have already decided on the same things.
On the issue of transport, the ALP has also promised “five million kilometres of new bus routes”, and a reduction in the number of transit zones from 9 to 5 (this will reduce fare costs for the outer suburbs).
The popularity of these measures should not be underestimated, especially given the rate at which Perth is sprawling.
I had no idea that there was such a thing as a rate of sprawl!
Having just heard an interview with Colin Barnett, in which the interviewer (Geoff Hutchison) gives him the run around for the first five minutes, I’m not at all confident the Liberals will make any headway at all in this election.
Anna, would you admit ‘arrogance’ as a main issue? Likely to be an issue for any government after 2 terms, and facing a hopeless opposition. But perhaps it’s all the little instances of it over the years that add up – creating jobs for ALP hacks, dismissing criticism of the independent commissioners, even pushing through Sunday trading or daylight saving ….
Unfortunately the mess that is indigenous affairs probably isn’t a main issue, but may have its effect, in creating a general sort of impression (along with the infamous Office of Shared Services etc) that the government has on its record a number of failures by now.
There’s good evidence to suggest that the theft was the other way around, and the ALP gazumped the Liberals by doing it earlier.
I don’t think it’s so much arrogance as it is an inability to articulate what they’ve done with the last four years. I think the Libs’ silent ad asking viewers to name three things that Labor has done with good economic times is a good one – their only good ad, really.
Incidentally, I noticed this morning that the colouring and use of silence is the same as the ad for Simplicity Funerals. Not sure if that means anything…
I have a theory… erm-ahem… my theory… that I have and which is mine. It is that now that we have a Labor government in Canberra we might see an increase in the liberal vote in the State elections as Australian electors try to go for a perceived balance in State/Federal governments?
I generally trust the betting markets over the polls. However, given the deliberate release of the data by the ALP clearly trying to minimise the protest vote, and a very good ALP friend working on a marginal seat campaign I can tell you that they are extremely nervous.
The left crows about the defeat of Howard, which was historically a turn up for the books given the shape the economy was in. Now the ALP in Darwin almost got booted and the ALP in WA are teetering on the edge, and would be demolished in NSW if an election were in the offing, despite the Coalition Parties in all those States/territories being a shower of poo to put it politely (and I support them). All of this points to the fact that the Australian electorate, despite what the polls may say, appears to have a bias to two sentiments – changing governments after they have had a few terms and balancing the parties at state and federal levels. I don’t know if there is sound evidence to support this or maybe I am still trying to rationalise why Howard lost, but that is my take.
Anything that has made Carps appear to be on E’s has to be a very powerful force – in this case I believe it is fear. (If he wins he will be back to the old dour grump that he really is.)
Which campaign, Razor?
I’ve heard similar, although it’s from people who are almost always pessimistic about elections!
Awwwww, if Labour lose a State then a referendum to abolish the stupid states will never succeed.
Anna – Swan Hills (I think). He isn’t generally a nervous nelly and I take him at his word. It is more than just the usual ‘anything can happen’ type of talk.
Maxinquaff,
While I share your dream I don’t really see how it is ever going to get up until the Federal/State system really crashes and that isn’t good for the country.
I suspect the first step is probably and more likely to be moving to a republic. As a monacharist (not because I love Liz but because the system works) I would accept having the GG be called a President and retain the GG appointing system that currently exists but remove the Monarch’s rubber stamp – Status Quo with the final gossamer strings cut. Then abolish the States and local councils and form regional governments.
Got any ideas on how to convince the majority of voters in the majority of states that the States should be gotten rid of?
“the Australian electorate, despite what the polls may say, appears to have a bias to two sentiments – changing governments after they have had a few terms and balancing the parties at state and federal levels”
That may well be true. Or they might just treat each election on its merits. Has there been a case of a government being returned or booted where it wasn’t truly deserved?
“Has there been a case of a government being returned or booted where it wasn’t truly deserved?”
Of course there has, but it is a matter of subjective opinion.
Of course they are. The parallels with the just-completed NT election are ominous.
* Electorally untested leader? Check.
* Opposition leadership goings-on? Check.
* Argument about mismanagement of windfalls? Check.
* Accusations of arrogance? Check.
* Snap election? Check.
* Large redistributions? Check.
I wouldn’t mind uranium being shipped through my street. I lived in Darwin most of my life and yellowcake was passing through the whole time.
Honestly. Yellowcake is a lot safer than a tanker carrying … well … anything really. Petrol, LPG, chemicals; all these could destroy a neighbourhood. Yellowcake is just not that dangerous by any sensible comparison.
Jacques – I, too, have lived in Darwin very close to the Stuart Highway in Berrimah along which the drums of Yellow Cake were trucked. I was more worried about a B52 not dragging it’s arse off the deck out of the RAAF Base than a bit of yellowcake being spread around in an accident.
“Has there been a case of a government being returned or booted where it wasn’t truly deserved?”
(This is so long ago I don’t expect to be contradicted) The WA ALP Tonkin government was thought to be a generally OK government which lost office because of the paranoia whipped up about the federal (Whitlam) ALP government. Not that it was an easy time to be in government anyway.
Jacques and Razor -
I don’t wanna piss in your pockets or nothing, but you strike as people who think things through. I don’t believe you would have been the targets of said advertisement.
FDB – given I live in a safe seat (Perth) and I am not a swinger (Mrs Razor wouldn’t allow it – boom tish)(although I have voted ALP but that was a family affair – blood thicker than water (I’m the black sheep!))you are correct.
That said, if I was an ALP strategist I’d be cranking the Uranium scare story as well, even if I didn’t believe it. Richo – “whatever it takes.”
I think the concern is more based on the fact that the retiring member had a very good staanding in the electorate and retired in somewhat questionable circumstances, though to her credit, has been supporting her successor, and has in fact appeared in Election Advertising endorsing him.
Russel – We used to wave to John Tonkin when he was out watering his front lawn on Preston Point Road, East Fremantle, as we drove past. My Grandpa was a mate of his.
Gawd, what a load of rubbish that uranium ad is.
Aside from the non-risks of carting uranium (as others have said, I’d prefer uranium carted through my suburb than petrol), precisely what “nuclear waste” is created by the process of uranium mining?
Somewhat OT, but if you want trainwrecks, head over to Alaska right now:
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/
Just hilarious. She’s going to have to give the speech of her life tomorrow.
And I have no doubt she will.
Definitely off topic, CK, but loads of fun. The boyfriend, who apparently fancies a career in Ice Hockey (or plain ‘Hockey’ as they call it over there) is setting new heights (or depths) in redneck idiocy.
His attitudes and savoir faire bring to mind Carlton’s Brendan Fevola. Are there really votes to be won with this?
My old man is annoyed that he hasn’t seen any of the local candidates yet. Living in Darwin conditions you to expect a certain level of personal service, I’ll give you that.
And if it’s OK to say Obama => Osama, can we do Palin => Stalin. As the Republicans have spent all day telling people, she has foreign policy experience, she lives in the US state closest to the gulags!
I guess that means she has torture experience too. A perfect team up for McCain.
From William Bowe at Pollbludger.
http://www.pollbludger.com/?p=932&cp=1#comment-183599
And here is the ad in question as scanned by William.
http://www.pollbludger.com/walibad.JPG
Just ducking back in to say told ya!
Don’t count your chickens JUST yet
It Ain’t Over till Brendan Sings
Swan Hills is gone. And if the Nats go with the ALP then I’ll be very suprised.
Meh, it will come back when they realise the local member can’t fulfill any of his promises from the opposition benches