MB: William’s been having problems with his database crashing, so he’s going to conclude his liveblogging of the WA election poll count here if the problems continue.
10.48pm. I’ll wrap it up here and carry on over at my place, so enormous thanks to Mark Bahnisch for allowing me to clog up his page. The Liberals have gained Ocean Reef, North West, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Mount Lawley, Bunbury, Darling Range, Kingsley, Wanneroo, Southern River and apparently Morley. Varying degrees of doubt remain about Riverton, Forrestfield, Collie-Preston and Morley. Labor might make a notional gain of Albany. Former Labor independent John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie from the Liberals. Labor may have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams. Independents Janet Woollard in Alfred Cove and Sue Walker in Nedlands may or may not lose their seats to the Liberals. The numbers are 27 to 29 for Labor plus Labor independents, with either one or two of the latter; 26 to 28 for the Liberals plus Liberal independents, also with one to three of the latter; and four for the Nationals.
10.33pm. ABC computer has Southern River back as Liberal win.
10.26pm. Primary votes in Southern River are Liberal 45.5 per cent, Labor 39.2 per cent, Greens 10.1 per cent, CDP plus Family First 5.5 per cent. The latter would make it very tough for Labor indeed.
10.24pm. ABC computer only has Southern River as “LIB ahead”, when the consensus seems to be that it’s gone.
10.17pm. Morley: Labor 36.0 per cent, Liberal 34.0 per cent, John D’Orazio 17.4 per cent. D’Orazio himself presumably knows something about it, and seems to think his preferences will give it to the Liberals. With the Greens vote on 7.6 per cent, I wouldn’t be so sure quite yet.
10.09pm. Alfred Cove still complicated: Liberal 43.4 per cent, Janet Woollard 25.5 per cent, Labor 20.1 per cent, Greens 9.4 per cent. Not sure what chance of Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Woollard.
10.05pm. Carpenter not conceding.
10.02pm. So a left-right split of between 15-21 and 17-19. Greens one to five. Nationals one to four. Zero to three for the religious parties.
10.00pm. To clarify, this upper house stuff is based on very sketchy educated guesses following on from lower house trends.
10.00pm. Upper house part six: Mining and Pastoral. Upredictable, but very likely three left, three right. Greens and Nationals both in contention.
9.56pm. Upper house part five: Agricultural. Labor not certain of two seats: could be three Liberal, one Nationals and one Family First, or maybe two Nationals.
9.52pm. Upper house part four: South West. Looking like a close shave between four-two and three-all between right and left. A third left seat would certainly go to Greens. Family First and the Nationals in the mix for the three or four right seats.
9.45pm. Upper house part three: South Metropolitan. Liberals likely to have done well enough to have won a third seat, which if true is very bad news for Labor. Could be three Liberal, three Labor; or three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens.
9.42pm. Steven Smith says last Forrestfield booth good for Labor, returning it to lineball. But nobody doubts the Liberals have won Wanneroo, which decides the issue.
9.41pm. Upper house part two: North Metropolitan. Unlikely to be other than Liberal 3, Labor 2, Greens 1.
9.38pm. Upper house part one: East Metropolitan. The swing here might just be at that exact point it needed to be to give the CDP the final seat; it could otherwise go to the Greens. Other than that, Labor three and Liberals two.
9.33pm. Consensus seems to be Liberal Bill Marmion will defeat Sue Walker in Nedlands. The consensus probably knows something I don’t: figures are Liberal 43.6 per cent, Walker 23.5 per cent, Labor 16.4 per cent, Greens 14.1 per cent. Are Greens preferences putting Labor ahead of Walker?
9.31pm. The Greens still looking likely to fall short of overtaking the Liberals in Fremantle. McGinty on 38.9 per cent, Liberal 29.7 per cent and Greens 27.7 per cent, with the only preferences to come Family First and CDP.
9.27pm. In Kwinana, independent Carol Adams is well ahead of the Liberal, 24.4 per cent to 16.9 per cent, and very likely to ride over Labor on 39.6 per cent.
9.22pm. John Bowler also playing the leverage game.
9.15pm. Labor apparently think they’re gone in Forrestfield, yet with apparently all booths in they have a lead on the primary vote and likely to go further ahead on Greens preferences. Obviously I’m missing something here. Smith sounding modestly confident about Albany.
9.15pm. Brendon Grylls of the Nationals talking tough on who he’ll support, no doubt for leverage purposes.
9.12pm. Looks like all the booths are in from Wanneroo, and it’s the straw that’s broken the camel’s back. The Liberals lead 43.6 to 40.3 per cent, the Greens are on 8.6 per cent and apparently flowing weakly to Labor, and the CDP and Family first (5.3 per cent between them) would be going the other way. Most likely result looks like Labor with maybe 25 or 26 plus two Labor independents, with 30 required for a majority.
9.07pm. ABC computer gives Fremantle back to the Greens, but with 46.1 per cent counted and the computer’s unreliable record in calling contests involving the Greens.
9.05pm. Julie Bishop pretty much calling a Labor defeat.
9.04pm. Nationals seem to have won the four seats I expected: Central Wheatbelt, Wagin, Blackwood-Stirling and Moore.
9.03pm. Smith now sounding gloomy about Forrestfield as well as Wanneroo, and they need to hold both. Riverton and Collie-Preston very close; Labor 300 votes ahead in Albany.
9.02pm. Situation confused in Kwinana, but Antony Green and Stephen Smith seem to think the independent Carol Adams will win it.
9.01pm. Labor lead dwindling in Albany.
8.59pm. If anyone’s reading this at LP, I’m double-posting both here and at PB.
8.58pm. A reader says I’m too quick to write off the Greens in Fremantle, which may well be right.
8.57pm. ABC has Liberal 1.3 per cent ahead in Wanneroo, which would mean the end for Labor if so. But Antony Green warns that projections can be unreliable in this kind of growth corridor seat.
8.55pm. ABC computer giving North West to Labor, confirming what we’ve been hearing via scrutineers for a while.
8.54pm. ABC computer calling Collie-Preston for Labor.
8.51pm. Seats crucial to the outcome according to ABC commentators: Albany (51-49), Collie-Preston (51-49, big booth to come), Riverton (shaky), Wanneroo (49-51), Forrestfield (50-50), Joondalup (looking good for Labor). Labor would need to win all of them.
8.50pm. Labor clearly home in Joondalup, the 1.5 per cent swing very surprising under the circumstances.
8.48pm. Labor still ahead in Albany with 33.5 per cent now counted, after being stuck on 17 per cent for a long time. But the big booths in Albany proper as opposed to the rural hinterland could yet reverse this.
8.46pm. ABC computer calling Kalgoorlie for John Bowler, so there’s one piece of good news for Labor.
8.45pm. ABC now calling Wanneroo for the Liberals. Morley depends on John D’Orazio’s preferences, with reason to believe they will cost Labor the seat. Chamber graphic says Labor 29 seats, but that’s at the upper range of what seems likely. If it’s true there might yet be a minority government with support from John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
8.43pm. Raw primary vote with 46.3 per cent counted: Labor down 6.2 per cent to 35.7 per cent, Liberal up 3.3 per cent to 39.0 per cent, Nationals up 1.2 per cent to 4.8 per cent, Greens up 3.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent. If that holds, the pollsters have done very well, but maybe calculated the 2PP wrong due to mistaken preference assumptions.
8.42pm. Jim McGinty’s scare over in Fremantle. As I was about to say, parts of Fremantle are migrant and low-income areas that don’t vote Greens, but other parts are very bohemian.
8.41pm. ABC computer still calling Joondalup for Labor, which I thought they would have dropped at a losing election.
8.40pm. Liberal Riverton candidate Mike Nahan complaining of expensive Labor campaign in Riverton, but says it has come at the expense of Labor defeats in Southern River and Jandakot.
8.38pm. Talk of Greens preferences overall behaving in peculiar ways. Labor can normally depend on at least 70 per cent of them and is reportedly not getting them.
8.35pm. 37.5 per cent counted in Fremantle, parts of which are greener than others, but Greens well ahead of Liberal 29.5 per cent to 27.3 per cent and Jim McGinty on a very weak 39.9 per cent. Parts of Fremantle are greener than others, but McGinty in big trouble from there.
8.34pm. Looks like I wreak havoc wherever I tread – LP now crashing. Am trying to do it both here and there.
8.30pm. Steven Smith calling Morley for the Liberals, but thinks John Bowler has won Kalgoorlie. Thinks Albany in play, but we’ve heard nothing about it from ages. Collie-Preston, Riverton, Joondalup, Forrestfield and Wanneroo all more or less 50-50. Outer limits of best case scenario for Labor means minority government plus John Bowler.
8.20pm. Thanks Mark. Labor can only afford to lose nine seats.
Labor losses: Darling Range, Ocean Reef, Bunbury, Jandakot, Mt Lawley, Southern River, Swan Hills, Kingsley
Labor in trouble: Forrestfield, Wanneroo, North West.
Close: Forrestfield, Collie-Preston, Joondalup, Riverton, Morley.
Miracles Labor can hope for: Albany, independent John Bowler in Kalgoorlie.
Shocks: Labor appears to have lost Kwinana to independent Carol Adams, and Jim McGinty might lost Fremantle to the Greens.
The Greens ahead in 2 seats? Explain that away for me…
No worries, William!
Freemantle has Green that could win on Liberal preferences.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/District_results.php
So, what are the coalition options if Labour doesn’t quit emake it. Can they rely on the Greens, or would they support the Coalition? What about the “others”?
McGinty will be OK as the christians will push the libs above the greens and then the greens will elect mcginty
So how many do the Libs need for msjority government?
ABC is experiencing difficulties with their audio streaming.
Close elections break the intertubes!
This is a “we don’t really want either of them” poll. Bruce Hawker suggests neither side will be conceding or claiming victory tonight and that government may be decided by the independents.
Scarborough not looking good for Libs again.
BSF the magic number is 30 because there are 59 seats.Labor looks to be able to win 29 so far but can’t afford to lose any more.
Libs appear to have lost Albany, Scarborough and Kalgoorlie.
ABC 720 Perth now offering money to anyone who can explain what is going on. ??? I thought the relationship was the other way around!!!
Can someone please tell me what the line-up is on “Insiders”, tomorrow?
I just wanna protect the good, baby bonus, teeev.
State ALP govts were always going to tumble post Howard. The fact the ALP is even in the game is an indictment on the Libs. And why the hell are they losing some seats ??
ANyway, great day for the Greens. Butt-stinging and embarassing close call for Briggs in Mayo. Huzzah!
William,
I’m not sure you’re right that McGinty’s scare is over. The Greens are now 400 votes behind the Libs, but they’ve got us on 0 votes in Fremantle Eat. As its our second best booth I find this unlikely.
If you assume we’re on 600 votes there (pretty conservative) McGinty should be sweating.
Joe, who’s on Insiders tomorrow? Oh, just the usual, I’d expect. Tony Abbott, Alex Downer, Piers Akerman. Y’know, all the balanced commentators!
I voted 1 Green in McGinty’s seat, then 2, 2, 2, 2, … so he won’t be getting my preference this time.
Real pity about some of the new ALP candidates who didn’t get in – Louise Durack would have been good.
Now the WAEC site has give the Greens our 678 votes in East Fremantle, but has the Libs on zero in Beaconsfield. I know you can’t run an election without a few mistakes, but this really is amateur hour – two pathetically simple mistakes in one seat, the first of which took a long time to correct (we’ll see about the second) all after not updating for ages and then sticking most of the booths in at once.
Rx@15 …the ship of fools.
There was a funny back and forth between Julie Bishop and Stepehen Smith, Julie repeated her silly narrative that WA, NT and Gippsland all show a voter backlash against Rudd, then Stephen Smith brought up the coalition doing badly in Lyne and Mayo and she said “oh but they are different, special characteristics”. What a clown.
Labor/Nationals? Holy crap.
So I guess the question re Grylls’ remarks about Maywald in SA is how far they constitute upping the bargaining stakes with the Libs and/or whether they suggest a real desire to negotiate with Labor as well? My recollection is that he said in the campaign he’d get the best deal for his constituency from either party?
Any WA-ians care to comment?
Anyway, it seems prudent for Carpenter not to concede.
I would prefer the Liberals and Labor doing a deal just to cut out the Nats. Looks like a bad result for WA, a Nat leader holding a gun to the head of the government unless it can pork barrel away.
LOLZ.
I was thinking of moving state anyway, just for a change. Stupid WA voters. I would have thought the Nats would look like the irrelevant s*** c**** they are unless they did something other than form a coalition with the liberals, which they obvioulsy will. They just like being seduced, in the feminist definition of the term.
On Sky though Hawker and Beazley seemed more than slightly confident that the Nats in WA tend to work a bit independently of the Libs and might cut a deal with Labor that could involve left-leaning Independents. It seems the Libs had their talking points in order as Helen Coonan was trying to say this was the people turning on Rudd at every opportunity and Bruce Hawker did start becoming genuinely annoyed with it. Looks like it’s going to be hung with Labor holding the most seats.
Watched most of Sky’s five hour coverage which is probably a fair indictment on myself.
It’s looking very close atm. Labor could form a majority without the Nats.
Kim @ 21: Nats in WA have always been far more the “agrarian socialists” than in other states. Brendon Grylls would be well served to go talk to Carps. He would probably win more concessions than from Barnett.
And note Barnett in his speech not mentioning The Nats, or Grylls by Name.
That sounds ominous.
This played out almost exactly the same as the NT election. Untried leader goes to the polls in a cynical attempt to capitalise on opposition leadership problems, citing bullshit excuse. Lots of bluster about safe hands and wasted opportunities; meanwhile soaring rentals and house prices put many voters in a sour mood.
The new rule-of-thumb to add to the apparatchik’s playbook is: voters don’t like being treated like complete dupes. Stick to bribery and pleasant lies.
Does anyone know the likely leaning of the independents? That could be a crucial factor in determining who forms government.
Does anyone know the likely leaning of the independents?
Alfred Cove – Janet Woollard – Liberal
First elected on a “Liberals for Forests” ticket.
Churchlands – Liz Constable – Liberal
Ran as an independent due to internal Liberal party issues (albeit many years ago).
Kalgoorlie – John Bowler – Labor
A Labor MP who was kicked out for dealings with Brian Burke, but continued to vote with the Government.
Kwinana – Carol Adams – Labor
Was a party member but ran when she missed out on preselection.
Thanks for that info Robert. Talk about a cliffhanger of an election.
So, what sort of electoral system is it where a rural vote counts for twice as much as an urban one, and a party can receive 11.5% of the vote but no seats?
You people need proportional representation.
“So, what sort of electoral system is it where a rural vote counts for twice as much as an urban one,”
An historical one to some extent. Currently in WA – where government forms – metro lower house electorates average 22,000 voters, rural/regional 19,000.
In the upper house there’s still a 3-1 weighting towards regional representation but changing that will be difficult. There’s not that many people living outside the metro area in WA and it’s a very big state.
One hopes that this massive swing and near-victory to the LP will put an end to the “End of the Liberal Party” meme nonsense that was circulating after the last federal election. Both on this site and Pr Q’s.
With increasing affluence, urbanization and “ethnicization” the LP is always going to be the Natural Party of Opposition in state government. Community services such as health and education are superior goods which absorb a higher share of income as wealth grows.
They are also best delivered by political authorities. It is natural to have the ALP – a statist party – administer the expanding state apparatus.
So there will be a natural pro-ALP electoral bias in state elections. (Not in fed elections though, where fundamental ideological issues are addressed.)
But the inexorable statist tendency sets up the danger of ALP cronyism and corruption, most evident in NSW but also in WA (Brian Burke).
So the LP can always make a decent living off public dissastisfaction with ALP political dis-eases. It will come back sure as apples.
I think the Labour party needs not to be in power in WA, because the time has come for a good clean out. Any minister who was in the last ministry should resign from the parliament,the whole bloody lot of them.
A more utterly useless bunch I have yet to observe(thought I think the joke that will come to power with the Libs might surpass it),the union influence to has to either be removed or toned down,the CMFEU in WA are not regarded with any great affection,the Branches must be given more say,think I might go a bit further than just ex ministers I think if you have been in the Parliament for 12yrs you should retire,or at least face preselection or prove you are doing something to warrant keeping you there,to many time servers,also if your in parliament your wife should not be,or the other way round,it just looks plain greedy,also you should have a paid job not as a union Sec or some other job where its you scratch my back I will scratch yours,you should have a real job where you meet real people not a bunch of political wannabes.
Dont know if anyone agrees or disagrees, but after watching the farce that was the last Labour Govt in this backwoods state where it would be forever 1959 if a lot had there way,something drastic has to be done
Jack ALP cronyism and corruption,where were you for the entire Pertesen and Howard eras and for that matter Askin in NSW.
Jack -
.
The Liberal Party and the Labor Party are both ‘statist’. In fact there isn’t a parliamentary party in this whole country that isn’t ‘statist’. This country is statist. It began as a jail and ever since we’ve basically expected the govt to solve every problem there is.
.
Like children.
36 Adrien Sep 7th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Thats true. This country started off as a small over-crowded admin unit. And thats what its winding up as. SUch places invariably require fairly tight regulation to get by.
Everyone wants the govt to do their bidding. And since this AUS is a populist democracy the govt winds up doing everyones bidding, just like an over-indulgent parent.
There are distinct partisan differences in statist product differentiation.
The L/NP is more into warfare (eg military procurement) and “wealthfare” (eg tax loop-holes) statism. These goods are mostly delivered at the federal level.
Whilst the ALP is more into welfare (eg community services) and “workfare” (eg industrial awards) statism. These goods are mostly delivered at the state level.
Obviously the federally administered warfare and wealthfare states benefit the high-status ie Right-wing. So to the extent that these areas are politically important it will be of electoral benefit to the LN/P.
COnversely the state-administed welfare and workfare states tend to benefit the low-status ie Left-wing. So to the extent that these areas are politically important it will be of electoral benefit to the ALP.
Of course the feds can attempt to take over a state area, such as Work Choices. But that exception proves my rule as the LN/P probably lost office owing to the stupid politics of this move.
Looks like a change of Polly leadership in the west to me ,, Guess no surprise to those many not committed free thinkers
Comments coming form the Liberal Party now are interesting. For the last few decades they’ve as good as ignored the Nationals, treating them as the dysfunctional cousins you don’t admit to. Now the Libs are virtually demanding that the Nats have to put them into government, for old time’s sake.
Barnett did well to get the Libs into the current position but he cannot claim the electorate had sent a clear message for a change of government. If the message had been clear, Barnett would be Premier. He isn’t.
The message, as I read it, is that people are sick of the arrogance and complacency of the two major parties who take their supporters for granted, as the Libs are now doing with the Nats. More not-so-humble opinion in my own blog on the Western Australian 2008 election.
Thanks for the coverage.