Saturday’s election result in WA means the possibility of the political commentator’s dream: the hung parliament. Labor has suffered a massive swing, and now it’s probably going to come down to who can convince the Nationals to make a deal. Whose trainwreck? We’ll see…
The Nationals in WA are more agrarian socialist than they are in the rest of the country, and there are some who say that Brendan Grylls personally leans more towards the Labor Party. Common ‘wisdom’ and Liberal MPs suggest that the Libs and Nats will come to an arrangement, but Gryll’s personal politics, and a desire (and need) to appear genuinely independent and influential mean that there’s a good chance he may prefer to make a deal with Carpenter.
Whether Carps will want to, when it will mean having to fork out a huge amount of money to rural seats, in addition to meeting all his election promises, and dealing with the instability of an angry party and CCC reports, is another question. Whether he’s capable of working with another party when he’s so terrible at working with his own is a third. To be successful would require an ability to reach a consensus, at least with the most important bills; that just isn’t his style.
But whichever man ends up Premier, both parties need to learn some serious lessons from yesterday’s result. On the booth I was on, there didn’t seem to be a lot of passion, either for or against anyone. This is reflected in the high minor/independent vote, and in what I’m betting is a high informal vote. While there were plenty of those heartbreaking votes with just a one that are clearly intended as formal votes, it appeared to me like there were a much bigger number of blank papers than usual. Unfortunately they are all lumped together in the final result – so anyone else who scrutineered a count last night, I’d be interested to hear your observations. For that many people to make the effort to get to the booth, wait in line, fold up the piece of paper and put it in the box, it says a lot that they found writing five or six digits too much of an ask. It also felt like there were much more donkey votes than usual, although with those it really is hard to tell whether it was intended as a donkey vote or an actual expression of preferences. Perhaps Mr Bludger can assess the results of candidates at the top of the paper as compared to their expected results?
One of the most effective ads of the campaign (as opposed to the one I enjoyed the most) was a silent piece that asked the viewer to name three things that the Labor Government had done with the boom. A Labor hack who pays attention to politics, I struggled for a while to answer the question. I have no doubt that most people struggled. Partly because it was a question that would have taken people by surprise, it’s also because, though arrogant about their mad skills as a government, they weren’t very good at The Narrative. Also, they weren’t all that flushed with mad skills. The Carpenter Government was uninspiring, lacked passion, and were pretty crap at understanding and communicating with the community. Their lack of political ability was made crystal clear in their lack of direct response to the ad. When I first saw it, I thought it was a good ad, too early. Turns out, I overestimated the Labor campaign team. It should have taken an hour’s writing and a day’s production to create a simple ad: “Only three things? Here’s 10!” Even they could have managed 10. I think.
They also need to learn how to work with others. It’s going to be an oft-repeated mantra that one of the reasons for the disaster was the imposition of parachuted candidates into seats. This is missing the point. Candidates like Bob Kucera were also parachuted candidates, but he knew how to work with local rank and file party members and supporters. What was a problem was campaign teams who thought they could run the show without them, and who didn’t care about including everyone. It was merely an extension of the last three years, in which the government grew even more distant from the party, and in which the rank and file grew increasingly disconnected. You can’t get a whole community excited about you if you can’t even bring your own party along. Not to mention another party…
Another problem with the “Dream Team” was the lack of diversity. While it was important for Carpenter to make a symbolic break from the problems of the last few years, his focus on actual “youth” alone was a mistake. In telling Kucera he was too old, for example, the Premier told a large group of his voting base that they, too, were too old.
Right now, the two parties are both trying to make deals with the Nationals and Independent MPs. But regardless of who wins, both parties will need to seriously examine the reasons for this result. It’s the job of the various party offices to examine the campaign flaws, however. Let’s hope that MPs choose to focus on the reasons they failed, as well.
I don’t have anything to add, except to say I do appreciate your WA wrap-ups, Anna. My brother-in-law is from Derby, and his family are all still in the West, so it is good to catch up.
You would have to think that the Nats and the Libs are going to come to some arrangement, for the sake of securing power alone. From a Labor point of view, philosophically speaking, it may be better for the party to a state election or two across the country if it is the case that the government is not performing to the public’s expectations.
The last thing we want is for a long lasting hatred of state Labor to be solidified in the minds of voters who feel they have put up with too much rubbish for too long.
It might not quite be that way in WA, but it definitely feels that something like that is happening in NSW. Rees and Tebbutt certainly have a job on their hands there over the next two and a half years. Losing a single election isn’t the end of the world if there is a realistic chance of bouncing back at the next poll; but one gets the rather sickening feeling that when NSW Labor is removed from office, it won’t be back for quite a long time… unless the new leadership team can really work some miracles in restoring public confidence.
Bob Kucera was a high profile preselection when he came in. However he was not parachuted into a safe seat. He went into a safe liberal seat against a sitting Minister and beat him. He then turned the seat into one of the safest labor seats in WA. That is a lot different to the parachuting that was attempted in this election.
Yep, thanks heaps for the coverage, Anna!
Perhaps, Razor, but I still think that to blame it on parachuting is to miss the point.
And thanks, SL and Kim.
Anna, another statistic I’m interested in is voter turnout. What’s the bet it’s the lowest of all time, and the ones who didn’t vote were the ones who voted ALP last time. That would reflect not so much new enthusiasm for the Libs, as declining enthusiasm for Labor.
And they deserve it. Carps will be justly criticised, but I hope the repellent State Secretary, Bill Johnston’s failure is acknowledged – even though he is rewarded by joining his wife in parliament.
As much as I see Carpenter’s faults, I give him some credit for wanting to get past the low standard of candidates the party seems to throw up. You can feel his frustration at how poorly the government performed. Just one example: how pathetic that a major Liberal policy was to provide more car parking places at the railway stations on the northern line. Lack of parking has been a problem there almost since the line was opened. It’s been a well-known problem for years and years. But typical of the government, in 8 years of boom, the transport minister couldn’t lay out a bit more bitumen at station carparks and solve a really simple problem. The government’s ministers’ woeful performance has frustrated everybody.
Anna, what of reports that WA Labor hate Carpenter and will collapse in internal bickering twelve months from now?
If the Nats jump into the bed with the ALP it will be the end of them, despite their pork barrel/agrian socialist leanings. The majority of their support base will be livid.
Andrew E: the Libs are in exactly the same situation.
Anna,
There is also the role of The West Australian in all this and Matt Birney summed it up perfectly on 6PR on election Night, which William Bowe at Pollbludger has transcribed.
http://www.pollbludger.com/
Being dissed with the phrase “teenage rampage”, by Matt Birney of all people. Oh the ignominy.
Problem for the Nats is that a minority Liberal govt would find an excuse for an early election at a convenient time and win an outright majority.
I’ve said it else where, but I don’t think Carpenter has ever publicly said Who he is and why he wants to be premier. I truly believe that doing that might have helped.
The swing to the Greens was big – I suppose some of that were disatistisfied ALP voters (who perhaps like me, didn’t give any preferences this time). Trying to think of particular groups who didn’t want to vote ALP as they usually do … I’m guessing teachers and public servants? Carpenter and McGowan have been the most unliked education ministers for a long time. And public servants have just settled a long battle to get even cost-of-living wage increases.
Russell – sometimes it’s seat based too. I live in Mt Lawley and I was quite happy to vote for my Labor candidate, but friends (even ones who worked for the Labor party on polling day in different seats to their own) in certain safe Labor seats, one of which is now very marginal indeed, voted for the Greens as a protest vote against their members’ lack of responsiveness. I’m sure other residents with less qualms probably voted Liberal for the same reason, maybe not entirely realising their vote had the potential to elect a Liberal. (You would be amazed how politically uninformed many voters are!)
And Razor, I wouldn’t take it as given that the base will revolt against the Nationals if they do a deal with Labor. I’ve heard there was grave disquiet at Julie Bishop’s remarks on Saturday night, to the point where some National supporters’ parties were booing the TV coverage. They may well support a temporary alliance with Labor just to prove to the Liberals they can no longer take their support as given, and the Nationals will not suffer so long as they actually deliver. In my observation many country people are far more practical and pragmatic than many city people give them credit for, and will support whatever works.