After a break last Monday for the NSW long weekend, Newspoll is out with a steady 2PP lead for Labor and a jump in Kevin Rudd’s overall standing. Apparently the Preferred Prime Minister measure, which was so crucial in talking down Brendan Nelson’s leadership, is no longer important. At any rate it’s not been reported in the early story in The Australian, which talks up Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating. It might be more to the point to note that Turnbull has had a negligible leadership effect by any historical measure on the Opposition’s voting intention numbers.
Elsewhere: The Poll Bludger.
Update: Possum. OzPolitics notes the large jump in The Greens’ primary vote.
Lesson for Rudd – do things instead of just talkinhg about doing them, having enquiries, reports, committees etc. etc etc and all his other do nothing bureaucratese.
Lesson for Turnbull. Don’t do what Rudd did since he won the election.
Problem for all of us: we’ve got so used to Ratty behaving as Action-Man, even when his actions were discreditable and disgusting, that’s what we expect of all our pollies now. But is that a good thing? Has it clicked with Rudd that that’s how to stay ahead in the polls, and id so, what does it mean for our future, and the future behaviour of politicians?
At least, that’s what this Newspoll tells me.
The narrative is out already that this is a win for Turnbull, at least courtesy of boring Brissenden on ABC radio this morning, claiming that the opposition will be ‘pretty happy’ with the latest Newspoll. The jerk couldn’t even bring himself to quote any of the figures except those favourable to Turnbull.
It’s a sorry state of affairs when the Sky News corrrespondent, who’s occasionally on the same program, is more impartial than the ABC’s own.
Update: Possum.
OzPolitics notes the large jump in The Greens’ primary vote.
It’s clear why Turnbull would be happy(ish): the net satisfaction measure has gone from -5 (Nelson) to +25 (Turnbull). He can at least say that his first month has not been a total disaster, which is really the best that the completely-at-sea Coalition can hope for these days. The happiness could only be a very limited one though. Put simply, the ALP’s TPP is still above its election-winning levels, and they will win the 2010 poll in a canter. It’s difficult to see how Turnbull’s leadership will survive that inevitable result. He must hate knowing that history will very likely end up judging him to have been a reasonably competent but ultimately ineffectual politician.
BBB
Yes Mark, we need to read what Possum has to say about the data related to Turnbull’s leadership. His conclusion reads “At the moment, using just the data, Turnbull’s leadership is closer to a Beazley Mk2 impact than either Rudd or Latham. Satisfaction has increased from a low base, but the thing that matters – voting intention – has gone statistically nowhere and he’s the worse comparative leader in the beauty pagent of PPM of all new mid-term Opposition Leaders in the last decade.”
Personally I am very satisfied with Turnbull as opposition leader. And I hope he stays just that.