So, I need to know a good pub in Sydney where I can hang around next week with some likeminded souls and watch the US election results roll in. Who’s got some suggestions? What would be the best time to rock up?
I seem to recall noting that some of you have the misfortune to live elsewhere. What pubs would you recommend in your own vicinity?
“So, I need to know a good pub in Sydney”
Well, that’s your problem right there.
Manning Bar at Sydney Uni, will have the CNN broadcast, and speakers from the American Studies Centre analysing the results, sausage sizzle, I think there is a $5 cover charge.
Coogee Bay HotelWarren View Hotel on Enmore Road? Big enough for groups, has screens, isn’t too loud. I open the bidding thus.
I’ll be at whereever is agreed upon when I get there after COB.
I’ll be in Grant Park in Chicago.
(Sorry!)
Here’s the link
http://uselectionwatch.org.au/events/election-day-spectacular
Coogee Bay Hotel could be interesting if they do the “two families, one cup” thing again (sorry).
Anyone have any ideas for places in Brisbane? I think that I’ll just be on the couch, drinking large amount either in celebration or despair (most likely celebration, by the looks of it).
Enemy Combatant has arranged a Brisbanian venue – from 9.30am on the Deck Bar at the Jubilee Hotel on St Paul’s Terrace, Bowen Hills.
Details here:
http://politic.osm.net/the-party/
dunno if any pub with screens in hobart will follow the US election, but the best pub to hang out in with a radio would be the Republic, natch.
It also features regular quiz nights where there is always a Paul Keating question ‘cos the owner is a diehard fan.
It was at least, the only place to drown my sorrows when the referendum failed.
On the basis of previous experience, I would second the suggestion of heading to Sydney Uni’s Manning Bar. Details of what’s on offer during the day are available online. Mind you, a $10 cover (inclusive of barbeque, and $5 for students/concession) does seem a little steep. Not sure if I’ll go myself.
I should add the disclaimer that I am a University employee (though not one working in the US Studies Centre).
Does anyone know of a good place in Perth? A friend and I will watch it on his Foxtel if necessary, but would prefer to get out to a pub if possible.
Surely the Coogee Bay Hotel is now doomed, like forever and ever.
Melbourne?
Probably there’s nowhere in Armidale, Though I suppose one could try and ask the UNE Bistro. I gather they are open again after having been shut down for a considerable time by Howard’s VSU, but I don’t know their hours.
Oh, btw, re the Coogee Bay Hotel. It WAS shit. Now they just have to work out if it was male or female, human or animal and that could take several weeks.
Melbs?
No pubs here mate, move along.
Just an intricate network of oh so sophisticated hole-in-the-wall bars that are apparently very European in style and pretence. And are the envy of, um, someone, somewhere.
A deckchair and a slab at Federation Sq could be a goer.
Paul, I’ve always found the New England Hotel in Armidale to be a congenial watering hole, although my last visit there was in June 2000, the day before I pranged my pushbike whilst descending Dorrigo Mountain.
Folk in my neck of the woods may wish to prevail upon the management and staff of one or other of the Redbrick Hotel (Annerley Road), Clarence Corner Hotel (Crnr Annerley Road & Stanley Street), the Morrison Hotel or the Chalk Hotel (both in Stanley Street).
I don’t think the Newie in Armidale will be showing anything other than Fox Sports, ditto the White Bull with their projection setup. Trying to get them to change the channel away from sports is an invitation to an “Eh?” accompanied by confused head scratching.
Via collins – You’re taking the piss, right?
I think I’ll be trying to bully my buddies down to the Great Northern – one of the eight or ten pubs within comfortable stumbling distance of my abode. But I could be coaxed as far as Fitzroy or Brunswick or Carlton proper for a sufficiently impressive to-do.
DR,
Absolutely.
btw, I forgot to put my full name in on the last comment after the field emptied.
No such thing as a good pub in Sydney.
Besides, it’s Melbourne Cup day so any decent pub will be tuned to the races.
Democrats Abroad will probably be getting together at a Sydney hotel. For the DNC they were at the Agincourt Hotel on Broadway, and Jackson’s on George. I think the Agincourt is their regular watering hole. They haven’t announced where they are getting together next week, but you might like to check the website closer to the date.
http://www.democratsabroad.org/group/australia-nsw
Nahh, Fine, the shenanigans won’t start our time until well after the Cup is run.
So get tizzied up, have a flutter, and then hunker down to watch the interwebs and see the (hopefully good and following-predictions) results come through from about midnight onwards…
Oh no, not Jacksons on George. Last watering hole of the apocalypse, when everything else is shut. A soul destroying venue only equalled in appallingness by the old Bourbon. I think I threw up in my mouth a little just thinking about them.
Paul B and David R,
Given the Newie has that head-scratching problem (and arse-scratching as well from what I remember!), and the Bistro’s food is shite, may I suggest the Kootingal pub? You’ll only need to dodge the odd pool cue and/or attempted glassing
Only kidding…The pub down near Maccas (can’t remember the name) always seemed to have different things on each telly and the beer was cheap…
As for me, got an install at Mac uni – maybe the customer’s will be up for a “break from boredom”
It won’t be the 4th of November here Fine! All happening on the 5th down under.
I’ve already put in a leave form for the day. Accompanied by a series of “you are going to take the day off to do what??”
The Warren View is definitely a goer & the Botany View Hotel (BVH) on King Street -down the St Peters end is another starter – small pub with huge screen in the public bar and lots of tellies around.
But sounds like there are a few events already organised.
tigs – am happy to meet up where/when etc. Keep us posted.
Heh, DR. I need to be paralytically drunk just to find Jackson’s on George, wouldn’t have a clue where it was otherwise.
Other nominees for the Sydney Hall of Shitty Pub Shame: the Orient on George St, the South Steyne in Manly, Scruffy Murphys aka Surly O’Punchy’s Irish Pub in Haymarket, Northpoint in North Sydney, and—how could I forget?—the entire Darling Harbour precinct of a Friday night.
The Agincourt’s not so bad. Not so bad as it used to be, anyway. In the 1990s when I was a high school student working at the hamburger multinational two doors down it was *interesting*.
Liam wrote:
That’s my impression too Liam – the Bourbon and Jacksons on George just sort of magically appear, Harry Potter like, only when you’re 5 schooners past sensible.
Sadly, the South Stain in Manly exists during normal daylight hours. I was pretty sure it got it’s name from the skidmarks on the undies of the denizens, creative spelling notwithstanding.
The closest I’ve seen to a good pub in Sydney was the Hopetoun. Pretty reasonable Mexican restaurant upstairs too – half price for the band YAY YAY YAY!
The spectre still haunts me of seeing (everywhere else I went) reasonably cool, youngish people playing pokies to shite commercial dance music on a Friday or Saturday night. It’s as if to them ‘pub’ means “place to get drunk, eat bad expensive food and lose money before going out clubbing”.
Agreed.
The haunt of the Kidney Snatcher (a “you had to be there” episode involving a mate and strange lady).
Agreed and add the Greenwood Tavern to the list. Got to hate that pub over the years when I worked in North Sydney. Actually knew a guy who went to the school that was converted into the Greenwood.
And while it is trendy to bash Sydney pubs, you can’t go wrong having a drink at The Lord Nelson, The Hero of Waterloo, The Australian and the Fortune of War. Which all happen to be in the rocks.
And I don’t mind the Occidental in Wynard for a few after work drinks.
But I still miss the Century Tavern. Now that was a pub.
OK, I have confirmed with the Warren View that we can have a table and a TV to ourselves. I have booked for a tale of 10 from 11am (but can adjust if more of us are going to roll up). Confirm on the Event page on on FaceBook if you are a FaceBooker, please.
My favourite sydney pub was the Crown, on Pitt street. Was stumbling distance from work when I was in the ASX building, and a slightly longer stumble from the GPO after we moved.
However, I can’t recall whether the Crown actually had a TV in it or not. I suspect not, but it’s been 4 years since I darkened it’s doors.
Usually if I found myself in Shaun’s list of Rocks pubs, we were on a serious crawl and the spectre of Jacksons would loom. Still, if they’ve got a telly that isn’t tuned to Fox sports, the tourist quotient in them always makes for an interesting evening.
If you’re still there after us office drudges finish, TT, I’ll be there eventually. I’m sorry even to have to bring up the question—of course you will.
I screwed that up, not the fecking Crown, the GRAND!! All that drinking has broken my brain.
Coogee Bay? Quelle horreur! Surely everybody is going to the Grand National in Paddington, sweeties?
See you at the debates, bitches!
People watch foreign election results in a PUB?…..?…..?……?
Liam #33, I’ll actually have to leave by 3ish so that I can be home to hiccup on the children. Other people might well want to kick on until after COB though.
Excellent tigs – thanks for organising this – will they have CNN and/or will be the ABC be covering it? Liam, you just ain’t trying.
O.K. I have to fess up – the Coogee Bay Hotel is the only place I’ve ever been thrown out off – I can’t remember the details (hic) but I was well under age a hundred years ago and must have been mouthing off and a bouncer picked me up and threw me out onto Coogee Bay Road. Oh, the humiliation. Don’t think Salivas was opened yet. Talking of v. tacky eastern suburbs venues – Randiwix – a little club on Avoca Street in Randwick Junction is still going all these years later – how and why I have no idea.
They’ve got Rupert’s evil cables plugged in, jo! We can switch between the news channels for compare and contrast fun.
What a bunch of political nerds you lot are.
.
FDB – Exactly!
Hi JG, good to see you.
Jo,
[INSERT POPULIST SLEDGE AGAINST THE UNDEREMPLOYED HERE]
Melbourne:
Young labor, and I imagine a few MPs and every hack in town will be going to the imperial just out front of parliament house on the cnr of burke st.
There’s one or two McCain supporting scum in their midst though, so be weary.
There’s one or two McCain supporting scum in their midst though, so be weary.
.
Don’t you mean wary? Or maybe not. I’m weary.
[INSERT POPULIST SLEDGE AGAINST THE UNDEREMPLOYED HERE]
oy, I’m taking Annual Leave to attend – beyond the call etc..
I agree with the earlier suggestions of Manning Bar. I went to watch some of the debates when I was at Uni over the last few weeks and it was well organised and tidy. Plus there are several experts there (Mainly from the University US Studies Centre).
That is a challenge, jo. Beyond the call indeed.
David,
I’ll be crawling those pubs during the afternoon Saturday week. What I like is that they (apart from the Fortune of War) are away from the horrors of George Street. There are a few other small pubs in the back of The Rocks that are quite and pleasant to stumble in and out of as you find them.
See, I was all pretending I’d go to work that day and be useful. But I know that’s a lie. I’ll be sitting there watching webcasts of every single US network I can find while I hit ‘refresh’ in google reader like a monkey on smack. So Warren View it is. Must get data card working again on the laptop before then, too.
Shaun wrote:
Hell yes, and at least 4 pavement pizzas walk (counted, not created) from the CBD bar or the Slip Inn, which were two more awful joints I remember having to avoid. Especially if you were serious about your work rate viz. the right elbow. Cripes, my head hurts thinking about it, but go hard son!
US Democrats Abroad in Victoria are hosting a live Election Watch at the Maori
Chief, 117 Moray Street, South Melbourne on 05 November from 10:30 am until late.
Let’s say that the recent shenanigans at the Coogee Bay Hotel wouldn’t have surprised too many people. Talk about the pub most likely; it’s had a bad name for at least 20 years. It’s one of the most violent pubs in NSW. Full of young Eastern Suburbs men-about-town, ie, men who think they’re born to rule even before they get drunk; I’m not surprised that the staff might be a bit, um, unpleasant.
The Geek and I might share some dark chocolate in honour of our preferred candidate. Will there be no liveblogging here?
There may well be some liveblogging here!
Seeing as there as some fancy-pancy new
gfangled liveblogging widgets to play with, I suspect you can haz liveblogging.Mark #52, SNAP!
Of course, the Cup is well before the piffling little election. No-one’s actually been able to name a good Sydney pub.
The Maori Chief. Now there’s a serious pub.
The Warren View is definitely a good Sydney pub. Their dodgy online presence, apart from this superdodgy myspace page (no updates for over a year), is in face evidence thereof – discuss.
Jaasus. This is a walk down memory lane.
The Hero of Waterloo, good pub: Has the advantage of having a front bar so small that even a drinker of very average ability can usually manage to chunder from one wall to the other.
The Steyne: A Blood House. Just finished a pleading from a lady who had the tripes belted out of her there. Keep away, unless you like fights.
Coogee Bay: Say no more.
The Slip Inn. Run by a wanker (Justin Hemmes) for wankers. Poseur paradise.
Warren Wiew: Good pub for grub and a quiet ale or three, Liam. I doubt they’ve even heard of the US election though. Has the advantage of being just a few doors down Enmore Road from the Sly Fox, another great place to go if you’re into The Sisterhood scene in a big way.
The Crown on Pitt: Dunno it. The only Crown I know in the city is The Crown at the corner of Elizabeth and Goulburn Sts: A sticky-carpet, low-rent hangout for drunks from the Legal profession. Avoid at all costs.
As for the Bourbon, Jacksons and Surly O’Punchys, there aren’t places you actually choose to visit. They’re places your drunken mates end-up dragging you into at the end of a loooooong night on the turps when all you want to do is go home. The customers are unlikley to even know what an election is.
My advice: Stick to the Manning Bar.
Evan, you know you want to join us next Wednesday, really! Come on down.
I promise that I will have a striking helium balloon of some sort. Just ask them at the bar for the mob with the balloon.
Might just do that TigTog.
If I can drag myself out of The Crown.
There are 14 US states that carry $1.01 odds for an Obama win:
California
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
So McCain still has 36 states right where he wants them.
Best election plans comment evah!
http://scatter.wordpress.com/2008/10/29/what-are-you-doing-next-tuesday/
Does anybody have any suggestions for American radio stations to tune into for Wednesday?
I just scored an internet radio toy from Aldi for a 105 bucks and need clues to play. Downtown, folksy, funny, corny and partisan gems to help me sieve through the dross, please.
I noticed some of the remarks on Sydney pubs in George Street being a waste. It sounds like I am well out-of-date by now, having left Sydney in the 80s.
Then, there were two pubs down towards Bridge St (or was it Hunter?), the Newcastle and The Brooklyn. Both were fairly decrepit with minor face-lifts. The Newcastle hit on displaying impoverished artists’ paintings and enjoyed a long period of popularity. The Brooklyn remained more or less a blood-house, but I enjoyed one or two nights there, too.
I take it, from no mention of them, that they’ve probably long gone to property developers’ hands. Can anyone confirm their fate?
Pub2Pub live blogging, huh…. that’d be PubCrawl 2.0 I ‘spose. Cyber-shouting the cyber-bar with CocktailSmileys will be way cheaper than teh real thing.
Hmmm, using ustream.tv, or something, as the engine (“Completely free, all it takes is a camera and Internet connection.”) to go live with chat and video, and a data projector at each pub, could be interesting, albeit a bit silly, and perhaps dangerous for reputations.
Does the Jube have broadband for micro-lease? “And now we cross live to the Jubilee bottle shop….
Don, the Brooklyn is now a McDonalds. Not sure about the Newcastle, never saw it.
Evan, I meant the Grand, not the Crown (corrected above).
Melbourne has the distinction of being, one presumes, one of the few (or only) places in the world where actual US voting took place in a pub – the Melbourne leg of the Democrats Abroad primary was at the Queensberry Hotel (with the Hillary and Obama signs alongside the ones advertising $12 parmas). Not sure if they’ll be showing anything on the day, though.
So many Fridays lunches spent in there throwing back beer after beer to dull the pain before stumbling back across the road to play Unreal Tournament for the rest of the day.
Even thinking about it recalls the trauma of the job I had in North Sydney as if the spiritual wounds were still all fresh.
I’ve been avoiding the local pubs around since I started working in The Rocks, but I did have at least one good time in the Harbour View.
What’s the phrase, gilmae? That working in North Sydney will leave you either a physical or a moral wreck, you just have to choose? (Flashman, I think).
The very worst pub I’ve ever been in in Sydney was in Revesby, where one of my coworkers, after asking if he could smoke, was told by the security guard “Mate you can do whatever you like here but fight or sleep”.
By the time we left after about an hour or so, we’d seen people doing both. Thankfully I don’t recall the precise location of that particular hole.
I take it Liam you’ve never been inside the Rooty Hill RSL: It’s like Las Vegas, but the prostitutes aren’t as clean. Big projection TV setup though.
Actually, DR, I have been to the Rooty Hill RSL. It’s not so bad. As to your similie: I wouldn’t know.
The Canterbury Leagues is a better example of the mega-club genre.
Ah, the Newcastle! I was trying toremember its name. Also the Royal George, the United States and, I think the Sussex. I wasn’t a big drinker in those days, but I did go there.
The East Brunswick Club in melbourne has a huge screen which goes all day and nobody seems to watch, so I’d rock up there and ask the barmaid to change channels for you. As long as they are selling drinks, they don’t seem to be too worried.
True Graham. They also do a prodigious parma.
EBC is inhabited by a rudely healthy young crowd who could be fun to watch election results with.
You can either feel the Obama-love live, or cut the air of disinterest with your parma knife.
There will not be a soul in the room with McCain in their heart, or on their t-shirt.
Hell of a band room too, just quietly.
Ah Melbourne… the EBC used to have a bog-standard local deros TAB bar, then spent >$200k on soundproofing and a shithot PA and now they’re raking it in.
In Canberra, from 10am we’ll be at the ANU bar, and at about 6pm head over to the Phoenix
Wazza View woooooot!
really don’t need the excuse of a US election to enjoy a beer there.
I think I can get there about 5.00 pm. on Wenesday. That’ll be midnight US east coast time, or 10.00 pm US west coast time. By then we’ll be counting the margin of the result not guessing any result as such.
BTW I’m predicting Obama /Biden 356 electoral college votes. Stuffed if I can be bothered to work out if the Dems will hit 60 for the senate – I got to addled to sift through every state that was having a senate election (i blame the drugs).
See you all at the Wazza View
Democrats Abroad will be meeting at: Slide Lounge 41 Oxford Street, Darlinghurst (Hyde Park end of Oxford St; next to Gloria Jean’s Coffee) from 10 a.m.
Requested donation (Americans only) of $10, $5 for concession card holders and students. This donation assists us with our annual Chapter communications and get out the vote efforts.
Greg, do you know what they’re up to in Melbourne?
I just spoke to the manager at the East Brunswick Club. They’ll be open from midday Wednesday, and he assured me he’d have the election coverage on.
I’ll be there when I can get away from work…
Thanks Rob – sounds good.
Recording schedule willing, I’ll pop up too. Stupid inability to use a diary properly and plan long-term things not to clash with other things.
Off topic I know, but where else am I going to tell Darlene that I just purchased tickets to Leonard Cohen in Sydney. January 28. Also at other capital cities and wineries!!
Darlene where are you?
I don’t care that they were $200 each and it’s at the Entertainment Centre.
“Ah Melbourne… the EBC used to have a bog-standard local deros TAB bar, then spent >$200k on soundproofing and a shithot PA and now they’re raking it in.”
Go Pauly Martin! I can squint and see that yacht on the horizon.
Right on Nick.
Nexo loudspeakers, I love you. Thank you Paul, thank you Texas, thank you baby Jeebus.
My office-mate Lance, though sometimes *ahem* tricky to work with, makes a pretty good fist of his night-job too. Loud, clear, and from outside the club practically inaudible. Class act all the way.
Shame there’s mothing on this Wednesday.
FDB, I don’t see anything for the VIC chapter, but you could check demsdownunder.org or one of the facebook groups.
It’s the East for me and it looks like a few of mine too.
Melbourne: Port Phillip Greens are watching at the Limerick Arms Hotel, South Melbourne. But that’s a bit far for me. Brunswick East sounds good!
Yeah, where’s the Melbourne coverage punters? Who TF lives in Sydney?
BE works for me. Which pub, what time? I’ll be there late, and drunk.
Ahhh, the clubbage, cya there. I’ll 96 my way to its door.
Only bad thing about the election is that GWB is not going to be the direct loser. Worse, I don’t reckon he’d even be all that interested.
Lets get some pseph blogging predictions on record. I predicted a DEM landslide way back in May 08 ie 53%+.
What other predictions are out there? Interested to see what Possum and Poll Bludger predictions were. Mumbles has more or less confessed to being a goose for McCain.
Come on guys. Lets show some of that vindictive, petty minded spirit by strutting our quant pseph stuff.
Oh my gawd, Leonard is confirmed
. Thanks Adrian. That’s so special, I think I might cry (quite appropriate for something to do with Leonard).
I have no interest in going to an American election booze-up (quite apolitical in my old age), but I could organise some Melbourne bloggy thing prior to Christmas. We will see.
Jack you didn’t say 53%+ in May. You said landslide. The way the electoral college, any thing more than 51.5% will be a landslide.
The opinion polls right now have Obama 6% in front, so saying he’s going to win 53% reveals you can read the polls.
Which is truly excellent, but it doesn’t make you a psephologist.
# 95 Spiros Nov 2nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
No, thats a false inference about my calculations on this election and elections like it. I never go by seats. Too easily distorted by gerrymandering, electoral eccentricities and personality factors.
Generally, in Anglophone electorates, most elections are won with two-party splits of around 52-48. ANything in excess of that, in terms of raw votes at least, is landslide territory.
Back in Nov 2007 I went to considerable trouble at Lambert’s site to argue that the ALP’s 52.6% win was NOT a landslide margin. I think you will find a similar pattern in the US.
My method is simple enough: use general econometric theory (Fair, Cameron-Crosby), discounted for special political facts. Its mainly the economy, stupid. Plus a little polity thrown in for the time.
It was not hard for me to predict a 53% vote for the DEMs by factoring in a US recession, disenchantment with a losing war and general disgust with Bush/REPS. WHich figure is implied by a realistic notion of landslide margin and explicitly stated by me later.
As far as my psephological credentials are concerned, I am happy to stand on my record which is 100% correct for the six AUS and US fed elections in the noughties. Since 2000 I have gone Bush, Bush & Obama. And Howard, Howard & Rudd. (Verifiable on and off-line predictions.) Moreover I got closer to AUS fed results than anyother psephologist in both 2004 and 2007.
I would be interested to stack up my record against that of other psephologist bloggers within pixel shot. Eg mumbles, possum polytix and Poll Bludger.
And what, pray tell, is Spiros psephological record I wonder. [awkward silence lasting about 900 years...]
Well i blew that one up … this is me “More interesting is the Electoral College. I’m gonna say … 360 to 370 Electoral College votes. However he could go over 400.”
I’m gonna scale it down to 320 to 330 EC votes.
All the states that are currently “leaning Obama” including PA, VA, CO, NM, NH, and NV plus the northern mid-westerns WI, MN, and IA all generally rated as ‘leaning Obama’ already add up to 291 votes. Obama can drop NM and NV and still win. This is conceding every single “swing state” to Mccain – ND, MO, IN, OH, NC and FL.
Consider Obama could win some of those, plus AZ (Mcain’s been robo-calling there defending his home state!) and FL, NC, OH all 15+ votes. Also Obama is outside chance at GA — huge black voter turnout in early voting might mean he is home and hosed by 8pm. If the media can’t call GA for McCain early you know he’s lost, and lost big.
Winning all as indicated above and just FL secures Obama 318 EC votes. Florida and OH is 338. If Obama gets all the swing states he’s got 378. Just OH, IN and FL gets him 349. All the swings plus GA and AZ nets him 403.
Arizona is now a toss up and McCain is slipping badly in Arkansas and South Dakota. The only state McCain whereMcCain is improving in Pennsylvania, but Obama is still in front by 7.5%
I do not take much notice of pollsters on a day to day basis. They tend to be fashion victims. Much the same can be said of punters. Of course pundits are worse than useless, being usually innumerate.
I base my psehphological predictions on econometric and politico-metric data. Mainly cyclical swings overlaying secular trends.
Also I dislike predicting seats totals. These numbers are too much beholden to unpredictable local factors – gerrymandering, personalities etc. They are not proportionate to preference so do not give a reliable psephological index to ideological movements.
Ray Fair’s prediction as of OCT 2008 was for an Obama/DEM victory, roughly 52-48 split in the popular vote:
I also use Doublas Hibb’s Bread and Peace Model, which came to roughly the same conclusion – a 3-4% spread.
Obviously these are abstract models based on largely cyclical politico-economic factors. Both Fair and Hibbs acknowledge that their models have to be tweaked to take account of local and temporal factors.
The most important of these is the sheer ineptitude of the REPs and their obvious beholdeness to eccentric or elitist special interests. In my book that just about doubles the potential Obama/DEM victory margin spread, out to 6%+ (53+-47-).
The one fly in the ointment with these models is the influence of the personality of the candidate. Pretty clearly Gore’s persona (and Nader’s wildcat) was a big negative in 2000, depressing the DEM vote from a potential 53% to an actual 48%.
I predict that Obama’s persona is a net positive. My anecdotal observation of the US, based on long observation and habitation, is that for every swing voter who is put off by Obama’s racial identity there is at least one swing voter + who is attracted by Obama’s trans-racial cultural appeal. So I think that the Bradley effect is not going to be significant.
The best way to test this prediction is to compare the Obama/McCain split in Presidential contest with the DEM/REP split in the more generic Congressional contest. Any big variation in popular vote ratios between the two branches is an indicator of the degree of “racism” (or “anti-racism”) in the US polity.
Since the REP base (which holds the largest population of “racists”) is demoralised it is going to be hard to get it out of bed on election day. Conversely the DEM base is mobilised, going by Obama’s massive crowd appeal and his gi-normous web-based Obamatronic army of drones.
So I predict that the Obama vote in the Presidential elections will be at least as good as the DEM vote in Congressional elections. I will go out on a limb and say that Obama will shade the Congressional DEMs in the popular vote, much against the Conventional Wisdom.
But I will not lay out money on this bet.
OTOH there is a real possibility that Obama’s presidential vote may exceed the DEMs congressional vote owing to the swing voter tactical balance of power “see-saw effect”. That is moderate USA voters may want to give Obama a chance to avoid the charge of racism. But they may not want to give the ideologically aroused DEMs a clean sweep accross all branches. Mickey Kaus gives some evidence for this view:
So Presidential Obama’s relative electoral advantage over Congressional DEMs may be more the result of median voter ideological moderation rather than ethnological assimilation.
Apologies. Due to work commitments I’ll be unable to make it to the very meetup that I suggested.
I am a bad man and I feel bad.
Tch. Well, we shall hoist a glass in your honour nonetheless.
Raise one for me tig as well. Would love to be there but there is this thing called work. But I shall have a beer tonight at the footy.
And weren’t they happy chappies and chappettes, but surprisingly not triumphal. There’s one in every crowd of course, and McCain had barely finished his concession speech before the one in this crowd was spruiking how the market was going to bounce back on the strength of Obama’s win, that it was only confidence that was missing.
Hopeful indeed.
And weren’t they happy chappies and chappettes, but surprisingly not triumphal.
.
Really? How civilized of them. It’d be nice if the ALP took a leaf out of that book.
Jack – That is moderate USA voters may want to give Obama a chance to avoid the charge of racism.
.
Don’t they have secret ballots in the USA?
.
But they may not want to give the ideologically aroused DEMs a clean sweep accross all branches.
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You mean they may not want to give the same bunch total power? I reckon there’s something to that. And wise it is too. We do that. We gave Howard the Senate a while back and’ve regretted it ever since.
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Personally I think it’s the Postmodern Relativists in the Stock Market and their secret underground meeting to utilize the Perverted Arts to ensure that all teenage girls in Fundamentalist Churches get knocked up by dudes from the Hockey Team. It’s not that they didn’t use contraceptives it’s that someone told them they had genitals. Probably a stock market performance artist who is secretly working for Fidel Castro’s society of Satanic Messengers.
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Remember when you’re Right, you’re right. And someone else is always to blame.
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That’s what being a Christian means.