With all due respect to Andrew Elder, and I have a fair bit for him, the total decline of the Liberal Party is all too obvious from his latest post reflecting on possible replacements for Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer and Deputy Leader. In writing what I think is an exercise in satire calling for Tony Abbott to become Shadow Treasurer, he only succeeds in highlighting the absolute hopelessness of all the alternatives on offer – Joe Hockey (*cuddly* or undergraduate student pollie type carrying on like a porkchop in question time televised for those of us who aren’t up to watch Mel & Kochie?)… or Andrew Robb (less said the better… awful presentation, soporific, climate change denier etc…)
It’s fair enough to say that when parties are in government, Ministers can look better than they should through the status of the job and good staff work.
But on any objective view, surely there were always folk on the Labor front bench throughout the long years of opposition who were more talented, plausible and convincing than the sad and sorry mob currently occupying the Liberal benches. Can anyone seriously contend that Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb are the future leaders of this country of ours? Idiot children of the bourgeoisie and bland apparatchiks?
Or the Mad Monk?
There you have it, fellow citizens. Those are the alternative leaders the Liberal Party of Australia serves up to us in a period of uncertainty and economic travails.
I’ve never encountered Andrew Elder, but my take from his post occurs in the final paragraphs:
So in other words, the peoples’ verdict is only valid after two electoral losses? And the Liberal leadership is only about window-dressing as “true believers” rather than genuine policy contributions and commtiment to the post?
Is it to late for the Liberals to dragoon the most successful Liberal treasurer in Australia today, Troy Buswell, into the heady arena of Federal Politics?
Troy would bring with him a wealth of experience, encompassing six months at least, has a proven track record in exercising the machiavellian cunning and duplicity required to oust an incumbent from office, and would bring with him the exuberance and the je ne sais qua of a bon vivant and satre to revive the staid dull, perception of the Liberal Party, which is a relic of the past influence of former defacto Liberal prime minister Jannette Howard.
Best of all, as he would be a West Australian replacing another West Australian, there would be less likelihood of factional repercussions to the replacement of Julie Bishop. Indeed, Ms Bishop could simply exchange her Federal seat of Curtin for Troy’s State seat of Vass (or whatever it’s now called) thereby insuring that the state Liberals’ dream comes true, and Ms Bishop is available to take over as State Premier from the hapless, uncharismatic and reluctant Mr Barnett.
I hope my suggestion is given the earnest consideration it deserves by Party Apparatchiks.
I saw Joe Hockey on TV when the stimulus passed the upper house on Friday. Fulminating in the lower house, the look on his face! They need new people from somewhere.
I second the suggestion for Troy Buswell; that’d keep the Libs out of office for twenty years at least. That was what you meant, Benedictus?
I agree that Bishop is hopeless, but I think this post overstates the quality of the Labor front bench: Swan is hopeless, Conroy is diabolical, Albanese is a dud and Kim Carr is a cancer who will waste bilions propping up industries that should be left to wither on the vine. Garret seems to do very little of anything, Penny Wong is impressive but has delivered an ETS that is absolutely terrible. Jenny Macklin seems to mean well, but she’s really more of a kindy teacher than a minister. And Rudd has been (depending on your views) either a massive disappointment, or even worse than one could have expected from a life-long bureaucrat.
There are positives: Steven Smith seems reasonable, Tanner is great (but is getting swamped by interventionist troglodytes like Carr and Rudd), Emerson talks the talk but seems to have no influence (a pity when he’s one of only a couple in Parliament who has studied economics). Kate Ellis still looks alright sitting behind Rudd in Parliament.
I suspect that Joe Hockey would be a pretty handy shadow treasurer. While the ALP cheer squad don’t like his parliamentary personality, his public profile (and Swan’s complete lack thereof) would probably see him scoring a few wins, which would be a pleasant change.
They should be able to sniff out a seat for Troy, surely?
Shorter Required: the only decent government ministers are the ones who act like Liberals
.
The conservatives’ lack of leadership talent is not new. People tend to forget they turned to Howard in desperation after flirting with Andrew Peacock, John Hewson, Alexander Downer, John Eliot, Bronwyn Bishop and unforgettably, with Joh Bjelke-Petersen. The heavyweights in the 2007 government were still pretty much the ones who started with Howard in 1996; not much fresh new blood came up through the ranks in 11 years apart from Nelson and Turnbull and they’ve already been tried and found wanting. The same problems afflict the state parliamentary parties.
I guess that’s what happens when a party stands for nothing in particular apart from getting into government to manage the economy in the interests of capital. It doesn’t really inspire the best and the brightest to want to join. No doubt the same thing will happen to Labor now reform is a dirty word.
My personal preference is Bronnie, if only for the pleasure of seeing her cross-examined by Kerry O’Brien.
No! You’ve all got it wrong. Costello the Messiah wil lead them back from the wilderness. He’s just waiting for the right moment.
I for one am saddened that Julie’ attempts to resurrect Reaganomics are almost at an end.
Though Abbott as deputy would be just as entertaining.
Surely Troy isn’t in with a sniff, is he? I thought he was a kind of “seat of the pants” man…. not accustomed to dealing with rises, unusual stimuli, share market bottoming out, …
Ken Lovell, I don’t believe the Liberals flirted with Joh. I think various Qld spivs and nincompoops flirted with Joh; perhaps there was a touch of self-flirtation by the great man too? One doesn’t wish to speculate further.
Tone has certainly been sulking for too long. Time to revive The Abbott & Costello Show?? Funnier than Bronnie.
It’s easy to match the deadshits in the Labor party to the deadshits in the Coalition. Both groups have a surfeit of hacks, apparatchiks, and utter drongos. The problem for the Libs and the Nats is that Labor does have some talented figures, and the LNP have got fuck all talent.
For example, where is the conservative equivalent of John Faulkner? He’s a man not adverse to reading documents, interrogating bureaucrats, digging under rocks and asking the right questions during question time. He takes the politics seriously. He also take the process seriously. He finds out stuff too – from travel rorts to chesterfield chairs. He’s someone any decent party would want on their team.
But then why would a Faulkner-figure join the LNP in the first place? Would he get any respect? Hell, no. He’d be belittled for his pedanticism, overshadowed by the histrionics of the wanna-be alpha males in the party room, and then lose the next preselection battle to some Opus Dei throwback. And possibly expelled for thoughtcrime (like they tried to do to Graham Young). The Liberals don’t take process seriously at all. Instead, it’s a case of “If you have any poo, fling it now.” No matter if the poo misses, or hits one of their allies. What matters is that the poo has been flung. *Sigh*
Down and Out of Sai Gon
(sorry, can’t do the accents properly)
“and the LNP have got fuck all talent. ”
Is that why we don’t hear from some of the frontbenchers much? They’re out shagging all the talent?? Shurely shome mishtake.
Or did you mean f***-all, with a hyphen?
Bishop is now gone. Hockey has the shadow treasurer job. I look forward to seeing him removing his shoes in parliament so he can count past 10.
I’m assuming Andrew Elder’s post is a rather brilliant satire.
I’ve no time for the Libs, but I do think Hockey could be a real challenge to Rudd. Despite his apalling parliamentary performance over the delayed stimulus package in QT. He’d be even better as leader. That said, I wouldn’t want to see it because of the challenge he would be to Labor. And quite frankly, I don’t want to see another Lib Govt. for at least 23 years. Malcolm now has a huge unhealable hole in his foot. Somebody should tell him to put the shotgun in the cupboard and lock it away before he shoots himself in the other foot.
As for Abbot in a leadership position- go for it! The Libs would be out for 50 years.
With a hyphen, Ambigulous. With a hyphen. It’s easy to take the seven deadly sins and apply it to the LNP. I see lots of pride, envy, wrath, avarice and sloth in that mob. Even a little bit of gluttony with certain front-benchers. But lust? Oooh… that’s a stretch.
It appears that she has jumped (or been pushed).
Fun times.
Sometimes I cannot take the columns in LP too seriously and this one is a classic example of one that just wants to be mocked, as I assume all the comments so far are doing. Wait. Actually it is the comments that need to be mocked … now I get it. Doh.
I’m miffed that the Liberals chose to ignore my considered suggestion and installed Mr Hockey as Shadow Treasurer instead of Troy Buswell.
By so doing they have put at risk the female vote.
Oh Paul, I cannot believe that juvie Joe has sucked you into believing he is bright enough to be a threat to anyone. The man is a joke/windbag and will make a bigger mess as shadow treasurer than Julie.
Hockey=Workchoices and Labor will milk this nonstop.
Bishop’s third shadow ministry: Foreign Affairs.
Is she going to perform better against Smith than she did against Gillard or Swan? No?
joe2,
I have to admit he has, I seriously consider he is the only hope the Libs have. He knows Rudd well. I gather they are (or were) friends. (its not that unusual to have cross-bench frienships). (I’ve even been known to like some right wingers on occasion, and you all know how I feel about them.) The point about Hockey is, he probably knows Rudd’s weaknesses and is ruthless enough to exploit them. Assuming Rudd revealed them. I’m not fooled by the cuddly bear thing. Though, always hoping to see the good in people I was for a very little while. And ideologically, they’re not that far apart.
“Bishop’s third shadow ministry: Foreign Affairs.
Is she going to perform better against Smith than she did against Gillard or Swan?”
Well, Western Australia is closer to Indonesia.
I once saw Joe Hockey in action – addressing a meeting of small business people immediately after the 2003 fires.
He made it clear very quickly that he didn’t know where he was, didn’t understand the local economy (and hadn’t been bothered getting briefed) and that any idea he had was better than anything anyone present could suggest.
He saved himself from being laughed out of the room by making three promises to aid the local community in its recovery – none of which he kept, two of which the State Government were forced to take on because locals had already spent funds in anticipation.
Jovial but lazy. Great to have a drink and a yarn with, but don’t rely on him to turn up at the working bee next Saturday, even if he’s sworn to be there.
Joe2 – lolz.
Stop picking on Troy – he’s doing fine. Up ’till the last state election I had either always voted for the ALP or, more lately, voted Greens with the ALP getting my preference vote. But not in the last state election – the ALP government was so rotten it just had to go. I don’t think many people felt much enthusiasm for the Libs, led by the arrogant and petulant Colin.
But, what do you know, it’s still possible to be pleasantly surprised by politics. Colin Barnett has been really good – in comparison to the last lot, refreshingly open and honest. (The ALP looks worse than ever.) Here’s the opening paragraph of a recent newspaper article:
“Projects totalling nearly $2 billion including the proposed outdoor stadium at Subiaco, the redevelopment of the Perth foreshore and the East Perth Museum have been dumped by the Barnett government in favour of bringing forward the development of a new children’s hospital and building more public housing”.
You read that and think “now, which party is in government?”
I’m with you, Paul, I don’t want to see a Lib govt for quite a while either, but I’d rather it were longer than 23 years. I’ll be about 80 by then, and have a good chance of still being alive. 30 years would suit me just fine.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/julie-bishop-quits-opposition-treasury-role-20090216-88nq.html?page=2
joe2, is that the Sarah Palin Gambit? “Alaska is really near Russia so that qualifies me in foreign affairs”….
The pressure on Julie must have been full blow-torch strength. OK, Down and Out, maybe they don’t do lust; but they do malice, envy, pride, avarice and sloth pretty damn well. In Julie’s case: sloth and pride.
Will nice Mr Hockey get the Laffer Curve locked away somewhere or sent to the bottom of the harbour?
Sure, but can you see Indonesia from WA? That’s the relevant criterion here.
Paul Burns,
I think Uncle Kevvie and Uncle Joe (apologies to Mr Djugashvili unlamented) used to be breezy celebrities on one of those morning TV shows. No, not “Play School”, but a similar level…..
“No, not “Play School”, but a similar level…..”
Teletubbies?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cbeebies/teletubbies/
Well done, Ambigulous (10) One does sense a whiff of change around Liberal party atmospherics. Time for these deep seated problems of theirs to be flushed out. Now that the fragrant Julie Bishop has shifted sideways perhaps we will see how creative the Libs can be in replacing her. Has to be a federal sitting Lib though. Can’t be Troy. Surely there is some talented young back bencher whose promotion would give the party the movement and freshness they so clearly need. Someone in the party room needs to move a motion which will bring relief to themselves and the nation.
It has to be Hockey.
He’s the only one that most Australians don’t hate.
Give them time.
I’m with Andrew Elder. If the Liberal Right are so cocky let them put up their own candidate.
Alex Hawke for Shadow Treasurer!
Stop picking on Troy – he’s doing fine. Up ’till the last state election I had either always voted for the ALP or, more lately, voted Greens with the ALP getting my preference vote. But not in the last state election – the ALP government was so rotten it just had to go. I don’t think many people felt much enthusiasm for the Libs, led by the arrogant and petulant Colin.
But, what do you know, it’s still possible to be pleasantly surprised by politics.
No, Colin has been really invisible. Apart from an article in my local freesheet about him picking up a pair of labrador pups from a local breeder, he appears to have learnt the first lesson of Not Being Seen.
Oh yes, and quite prepared to work with an independent so bent that even our erstwhile ALP government dropped him.
No problem about ditching Dubai on Swan and the stadium, but East Perth museum is a bit of a shame. I’d take their hospital announcements a bit more seriously if the health department hadn’t decided to run our emergency departments on a model taken from the most dysfunctional public hospital system in Europe (ie the UK) though.
I’m hearing rumblings from staunch National Party supporters about Shire amalgamations too.
I agree that the current WA government don’t seem to be quite as bad as they could have been, but the sad fact remains that WA voters are presented with a pretty poor choice at election time.
Oooooh Patricia, you are awful!! Are you wanting to shift Troy out of Perth quick smart? Are his olfactory sensitivities and proclivities a bit much?
Sorry, forgot to snip the first section of my cut and paste job. Post starts at the first quotation mark.
Trouble is if they shifted Troy to Canberra, it’d probably blow the budget with all the new chairs they’d have to buy.
Julie Bishop as Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister: I can just see her saying “You naughty boy” to recalcitrant heads of state. And while I’m sure Obama might be nice about our former PM JWH, I doubt he’d be complimentary should Julie bring his name up as an economic guru in private discussions with the new Prez. Can you just imagine his face when she wags her finger and says, “YNB!”
Reckon if you’ve got really good eyesight you might be able to see Africa from the WA coast. With those eyes with their long distance stare, that just about qualifies her.
For those trying to recall, Hockey and Rudd used to appear on ‘Sunrise’ together with Mel & Koshie. It gave Rudd the profile that most of the MSM completely underestimated when he became leader – all the assumptions about how he wouldn’t have a profile were wrong because everyone (ie the MSM) had ignored his regular Sunshine appearances.
These stopped by ‘mutual agreement’ from Hockey & Rudd after Rudd got the leadership, as it became serious (mum).
Whether Hockey will still be remembered from those congenial exposures, or is still appearing I don’t know. But I would think that his stint trying to sell Workchoices is, as Yeti said, will be what Labor milks to distract away from any good effort he makes to have a go at Swan.
I think any good start he might have had has been blown by his glorious leader’s insistence on blocking Australians’ access to better schools and $900 in the pocket. They won’t play that one down in a long time; and Swan has the luxury of virtually every serious economist lining up to say that stimulus even if it meant debt was the right this for governments to do. I really don’t know that leaves Hockey with much unless he’s smart and effectively finds a way to change the topic – rather hard to do in the middle of the ‘world’s biggest economic crisis’ tho’.
FDB (33) – That’s because most Australians haven’t met him personally, but surely his media performances are enough to tell them he is a blustering bully? As an elderly constituent I spoke to Joe Hockey in Lane Cove when he was a Coalition minister. I asked him about their detention centre policy. His response was rude and confrontational designed to shut me up which I refused to do. He then became even more agressive telling me “Your lot will never be satisfied whatever we do!” Since he knew nothing about “my lot” beyond my being a little white haired old lady constituent of his I assumed it was because we were standing at an Amnesty bookstall that he made this assumption about my views on refugees. But no, having turned his back on me, be immediately began talking to the Amnesty stall organiser as if they were great buddies with lots of smiles and ingratiating comment. It seems, like Philip Ruddock, he is a member of Amnesty International! Yet nothing I have seen of him in many media appearances suggests he is a man of principle, the “warm, cuddly teddy bear” he is often described as. Even the so- called bipartisan friendship he shares with Kevin Rudd, whose judgement I usually respect, does not convince me he has the sort of character one needs in a national leader. I can’t see him enhancing the Coalition’s reputation for economic management. If I were a Coalition voter, which I am obviously not, I would prefer Andrew Robb as Treasury spokesman, failing any other alternative.
gawd, bad grammar in last post, sorry!
I think people tend to underestimate Wayne Swan in this equation as well. Despite a rough start, Turnbull as shadow treasurer never laid a finger on him and Bishop never got close.
Swan might not be the greatest parliamentary performer in the world but he is across his brief.
On another note, I happened to be on a delegation that met with hockey in his parliamentary offce a few years ago. Curiously his bookshelf was full of biographies and histories of the Labor Party. Not one on the Liberal Party. Not even Menzies.
I think that Wayne Swan is greatly underestimated by the opposition and most of the MSM. This is probably because they are used to a grandstanding treasurer full of confected rage and adolescant posturing signifying nothing. In other words the complete waste of space known as Peter Costello.
Kim says:
Kim is not the very first person I would turn to for an “objective view” of partisan qualities. This achievement is something earned through a record of confirmed predictions, not asserted as a matter of entitlement.
Its true that the disappearance of the Triumvirate (Howard, Costello and Downer) has left a big hole in the LN/P’s leadership pool. But then the ALP went through a long period after Hawke-Keating left when its leadership talent bench looked rather thin or over-rated. Remember Crean, Latham?
Its too early to write off the current leadership cadres of the federal LN/P completely. It still has some impressive talent on or near the upper deck. These fellows can at least claim they led successful lives in the real world outside of the machinations political office, appratchiks or administration.
Turnbull is a capable man both inside and outside politics, who has unfortunately made his run to early. Abbott is always good copy and was a competent minister. Costello can point to AUS’s relatively good record in surviving the GFC as another feather in his economic administration cap, and probably still carries the PM’s baton in his knapsack. (A long-shot prediction: he will lead the LN/P to the polls at the federal elections in 2013 or an outside chance at 2016.)
The LN/P is not on the nose in the general community. Howard-Costello left AUS “richer, stronger and prouder” than its predecessor. (Which BTW had a deeper and more enduring pool of talent than any govt ministry since WWII.)
In 2007 there was no real animus in the community against the LN/P, and Right-”corporalism” in general. As there was in 1996 against the ALP, and Left-liberalism in general. Now there is just a vague community indifference, with possibily a little irritation, at the LN/P’s confusion and dithering.
Rudd-Gillard are a good team and have won the confidence of the electorate. But most ALP honchos have the look of life-long machine operators, particularly those associated with the corrupt NSW ALP Right and the vitriolic VIC ALP Left. IT would not take long for the shine to come off the ALP if it had to spend too much time listening to the likes of Conroy and Albanese.
The LN/P leadership group could shine like a constellation of stars, snd the ALP could thrash about like a gaggle of drongos, and it would not make much difference to partisan alignments. Leaders, their teams and policies, are just not that important in shifting votes.
Party policies and politicians personalities count for very little against the great tides of change driving the propensities, partiality and prosperity of the polity. As Peter van Onselen and Wayne Errington concluded:
My psephological predictions on the relative fortunes of the ALP and LN/P are based on secular shifts in political sentiment, cyclical movements in the electoral pendulum and, as Harold MacMillan once remarked, “events, dear boy, events”.
The general tide of political sentiment is swinging the ALP’s way due demographic and ideological reasons. The aging baby boomer cohort have a congentially anti-LN/P bias, caused by the trauma they suffered at the hands of the despised authorities who ran the Old Politics.
Now that boomers are turning into geezers they suffer from instinctive revulsion at the party associated with not “playing their song”. (Catherine Denevy is a text-book example of this dis-ease.)
Moreover the AUS polity is expressing a significant ideological shift towards statism, following from the need to stabilise the financial system, equalise fiscal distributions and generally control things more from the centre (health, environment etc). The ALP has a home-ground advantage in these issues.
Although our polity’s strong tendency to partisan convergence on the median “working family” voter will neutralise the vote-shifting strength of this factor. (That is the psephologic behind my “Great Convergence” thesis.
If the peridocity of the electoral cycle has any regularity then its the ALP’s turn to have a decent go at federal administration. Such “turns” usually last a minimum of two terms. We are still in the early stages of the procession of this cycle.
Also the state ALP govts are likely to start toppling over the next few years. This will only serve to make the federal ALP look like a good bet, based on the counter-cyclical balance of power theory of fed-state partisan alignments.
Finally, events appear to favouring the ALP. By this I mean that the ALP is probably trusted to fairly pump prime the economy with social spending rather than tax cuts. Also the attenuation of cultural identity and national security issues, partially through Howard’s successful policies, has neutralised these issues – paradoxically helping the ALP.
So there is an over-determination of causes promoting ALP success over the longer-term. Based on these considerations I predict a three-term ALP administration. This will occur irrespective of whether Rudd, Gillard or someone else are leader.
Word.
I must say, I’ve always been rather puzzled by the characterization of Swan, by Coalition supporters, as incompetent, useless, clueless etc.
Apart from one failure to answer a trick “gotcha” question from Turnbull at his smuggest worst, I’ve never seen any evidence to back this up, merely constant repitition of the assertion.
Having worked close to (but not directly with) Swan, his main problem is that he has little actual understanding of economics or the economy. He is fine parrotting lines and reading briefs put together by someone else, but his lack of independent knowledge means that he has been effectively captured by the Treasury. Whether that matters or not depends on whether you want the Treasurer to be always spouting the Treasury line, and therefore economic economic decisions to be effectively contracted out to that department, or whether you want the Treasurer to have the ability to take advice and then make decisions after having critically evaluated that advice. I never saw any evidence that Wayne was able to do the latter.
On the topic of the Libs – Costello did them a great disservice by not taking over the leadership. Not because he would make a great PM – but because he had a duty to the party to see them through the long transition that they will have to make over the next few years. Instead, they had to install one person not up to the job (Nelson) and another that has been installed before it was time (Turnbull), and whose reputation is now being shredded on a hiding to nothing. The coalition need to take the time (more than once electoral cycle) to rethink their direction and consider the ways that they will have to change to make themselves electable again. Instead, they still think of themselves as the government in exile. The next election is gone, it is just a matter of by how much. Collectively, they need to understand that, and start preparing a political and policy strategy that can get might get them elected in 2013. Given the changes in the electorate that we have seen in recent years, and the demographic change that Possum has pointed to as a source of structural decline in the conservative vote, the direction they come up with will need to look a lot different from that of the Howard years. I don’t think they understand that. Turnbull does, but he doesn’t carry enough of the party with him and has too little authority. The next succesful leader of the Libs may not even be an MP yet.
“Having worked close to (but not directly with) Swan, his main problem is that he has little actual understanding of economics or the economy. He is fine parrotting lines and reading briefs put together by someone else, but his lack of independent knowledge means that he has been effectively captured by the Treasury.”
Oh, just like the previous one. What was his name again? Oh yeah, but he also couldn’t read a brief. Fine line in puerile insults, though.
Phil, my comment shouldn’t be read as comparing Swan unfavourably to Costello. Costello is an over-rated Treasurer whom IMHO has only one major thing to his credit – putting Australia’s public finances in a more sustainable position than any other developed country. We are benefiting from that now. Costello’s failure as a Treasurer was to ignore Australia’s longer term structural weaknesses (poor state of public infrastructure, insuffienct investment in human capital, excessively complicated and unfair tax system). As a politician it was his being to weak/lazy to force Howard’s hand.
As for Swan, he has only been in the job for 12 months – although I have doubts about his abilities, I won’t make any strong assessment for a few years yet. How we emerge from the present downturn, how he responds to the Henry Review of taxation (does he respond in a way that makes the system both more equitable and efficient) and what he outlines in future budgets to raise Australia’s long-run productivity growth, will go a long way to determining that.
Howard comprehensively screwed the Liberals by sidelining any moderate up-and-comers. Leaving now a crusty brown-nosed rag-tag of far-right ratbags masquerading as humans.
Not that I’m complaining about their dire situation of course …
Me either. You reap what you sow.
“his main problem is that he has little actual understanding of economics or the economy.”
Neither did Paul Keating, but he was a good Treasurer.
On the other hand, both Ralph Willis and John Kerin both had economics degrees and both were bad Treasurers, especially Kerin, who was as captured by his department as it possible for a sentinent human being to be.
Lo , good one – that’s the way to speak truth to power.
And Phil , grow up.
Labor Outsider wrote:
I’d disagree with this. Costello and fellow travellers expected a red-hot private sector focused economy to spontaneously emerge this stuff. It’s the perfect example of neo-liberal intellectual failure. It’s dismal low point was the bickering over the privately constructed railway up in Western Australia that one mining company built and another one demanded access to. Even if we effectively subsidised mining by building free infrastructure via government, it’d still be more effective than the private companies lobbying government for access to stuff that simply wasn’t theirs. In one sense, the neo-liberal ideal is right (private companies spontaneously emerge infrastructure) but the simple ideal that those companies would share it for reasonable cost is where it all falls to bits.
Nelson has announced that he’s not going to stand at the next election.
David Rubie – by “ignore” I was also implying a failure to understand the complementarity of some types of public spending and private sector growth.
Spiros – I’m sorry, I except ministers to be able to subject the advice they receive from their departments to critical judgement – I have doubts about Swan’s ability to do that – degrees alone don’t confer understanding – and as good a Treasurer as Keating was in some respects, his hubris before, during and after the early 1990s recession made that event worse than it needed to be.
Spiros @ 54, you’re having a laff, right?
Keating on Lateline the other week struck me as a guy with serious intellectual curiosity about the international economic balance and what it should/could be. I suppose he was always too arrogant, but there’s always been understanding there.
Swan can out-debate Turnbull, which should place him in a position of strength over Hockey–that’s all that matters, right?
My teevee is telling me that Turnbull offered the shadow treasury portfolio to teh Great White Hope of Conservative Liberalism. Malcolm knows his Godfather quotes vis-a-vis friends, enemies…
OK. The reason for my blogpost was that the far right should be drawn out from behind the scenes and exposed to the full media glare, where they would wither and die and allow a new type of Liberal Party to emerge. I’m sick of weirdoes and deadshits like Nick Minchin, Eric Abetz, Tony Abbott and David Clark hiding behind presentable people like Hockey or Turnbull while at the same time limiting their scope for action.
Kim: remember when the most impressive figure in the Federal Opposition was Simon Crean? I do. Before him, Bill Hayden was the only one who could take it up to Fraser. The current Federal Opposition has copped a belting but their relationship with Howard can be regarded as a kind of Stockholm Syndrome: they have to get past that, and my solution is to get the Howardistas out from the shadows so that they might expire all the quicker. I state my bias: I’m looking for something else – dare I hope for better? – from the Liberal Party.
Rachel@1: the people’s verdict should be respected and parties should adapt to it, whether it bids them the trappings of office or the ignominy of defeat. My point was that conservatives stick to their “game plan” long after the game has changed, so thrust them into the spotlight and let their inadequacy be clearly seen.
While they remain in the shadows, leaking and stacking, they have power: I want that power gone, and there’s nothing so pitiful as moderates fighting fire with fire. Put the right into positions of power and watch them wilt.
Required@5: A good shadow would finish Macklin. She’s lucky she’s got Tony “job snob” Abbott, who won’t do the job assigned to him.
Stephen Smith is “reasonable” insofar as he does anything at all: Rudd is his own foreign minister. In the same way that Menzies was his own Attorney General toward the end, to the point where he could put Billy Snedden in the role. Your mate Smith would do a “reasonable” job standing in the window at David Jones wearing a polo shirt, provided your definition of “reasonable” is sufficiently limited.
Ken Lovell@7: OK, so I’ve been watching Underbelly 2, but can I take your argument back 30 years and tweak it a bit?
Labour Outsider – Wayne Swan seems much more self assured and credible. Or is that simply the failure of his Opposition counterparts, so rabid in their references to his trainer wheels and incompetence and now themselves revealed as entirely at a loss on the GFC except to obstruct. He is clearly willing to accept advice from both Treasury and business and was always knowledgeable in his portfolio. Maybe not a great orator, but I doubt he’ll be blown over by Hockey’s bluster.
Talking of which, Ambigulous, no sign of any winds of change in Julie’s wake. All we have as a her successor is a big fat fart.
Andrew, you should be careful what you wish for.
Do you want one of these dungeon dwellers emerging Eddie Ward-like as the noisiest voice in the Opposition, and consequently the man half the party faithful become fixated on as ‘the natural leader’?
Better for the Libs to have Costello as the once-and-future-king. It’s not like he’s (openly) declared war on Australian Society, circa 2009.
Down@11: Spot on.
joe2@19: Joe Hockey is a clever bloke and disciplined. Labor people got terribly upset when Liberals mocked Beazley for being fat. FDB@33 is right.
yeti@20: fat lot of good it will do them.
Liam@35: finally, someone gets it!
Jack@45:
No, Jack, they can’t. They’re hacks or franchisees.
LO@49 and Rx@52: my point exactly.
Nickws@59:
Read LO’s piece: when Treasury stuffs up, Swan will be left exposed as Keating was in 1989. When that happens, hopefully the Howardistas will be gone and an alternative government can develop a better approach to government. Well, ya gotta hope so.
Nickws@63: I want to Howardistas to have their go, and then piss off. Costello can please himself.
Patricia – I think it is your second point – the opposition seem to be in the process of deliberately sabotaging their economic credibility at the moment with a set of arguments that often make little economic or political sense – Swan can’t help but look comparatively competent and statesmanlike in comparison – think of it this way – if Howard or Costello were PM right now, does anyone doubt that an enormous fiscal stimulus would be in the offing? Some of the detail would be different (slightly more heavily weighted toward tax cuts than public spending) which would influence the effectiveness of the stimulus, but the broad thrust would be the same. The opposition’s failure here is to make themselves the subject of debate. They could have offered broad support on the size and then quibbled a bit on the detail.
But as I said earlier – it will be some time before we can pass informed judgement on Swan.
And in news of no interest to anyone, Emo man exits stage right (and left, and centre) http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/16/2493052.htm
Well, at least Nelson has decided to bugger-off and get on-with his life.
Costello, on the other hand, seems to want to hang around like a bad smell. It’s probably something to do with his Parliamentary Super entitlements.
“joe2@19: Joe Hockey is a clever bloke and disciplined. Labor people got terribly upset when Liberals mocked Beazley for being fat.”
Andrew E, I did not mock Joe Hockey for being fat. Not sure where you pulled that one from. Windbag? definitely. “Clever”..cannot see it at all.
Politically, Nelson’s departure is quite fascinating. Was he expecting a shadow ministry in the reshuffle and spat the dummy because he didn’t get it, or was he leaving because it was at a time that would cause least harm to his party?
Costello is obviously waiting around for Turnbull (and whoever his successors are) to fall flat on their faces. Abbott’s denials that Costello was even approached as shadow treasurer prove this. Looks like its Costello whose chosen the long game.
“Looks like its Costello whose chosen the long game.”
Or just plain immobilised by chronic indecision, torn between ambition and cowardice.
Costello would be gone like a shot if anyone in the corporate world would be stupid enough to offer him a job befitting his imagined talents. Which they obviously haven’t.
Somebody in the media should ask him the obvious question – what exactly has he done to carry out his duties to represent the electors of Higgins in the past 15 months?
Labor Fears Costello!.
The delusion runs deep with this one.
Yeah. and in the real world Labor would also fear Dracula, Frankenstein’s Monster, the Wolfman and all Batman villians (except Catwoman.) They’re probably also terrified of Daleks, Cybermen and the rest of those evil crew in Dr. Who who want to take over the Universe.
adrian, I reckon that even though the journos at The Australian have forgotten Tip’s early performance as Treasurer, the business community won’t have.
Cast your mind back to his first couple of months as Treasurer. You may recall he had an Audience with (insert heavenly chord) Alan Greenspan!!!1!1!!!11!1! He was so excited that he blew his load on the spot, then couldn’t wait to shoot off his mouth about everything the Great Man had shared with him. The media couldn’t shut up about it for days. There was almost the same kind of “No-one will ever trust him to keep quiet” as there was when Rudd (allegedly) recently shared with the world an opinion that Shrub was almost too stupid to breathe.
And of course, Rudd’s observation (assuming it was made, which I think is a fair assumption) that an outgoing buffoon of a President was also ignorant and stupid is a really really major diplomatic blunder, especially when compared to that nice mister Howard’s comments that the incoming President and his party are the best thing global terrorists could hope for.
That was just a reasonable, temperate piece of statesmanship, wasn’t it?
Shaun, PB: it’s one of the oldest ruses in the Liberal Party that “Labor fears [whoever you're trying to push]“. I remember when NSW Labor were so scared of Kerry Chikarovski they beat her in a landslide. The sad thing is that journalists print this backgrounding without going to check with the (Labor) people concerned whether it’s true.
Andrew E @ 76,
As I noted they sure weren’t scared of Catwoman aka Julie Bishop. (I wonder how Hillary Clinton will react when she does that cat-claw thing?)
Joe 2 – Mea Culpa – T’was I who alluded to Joe Hockey as a “fat” fart. I intended to apologise to contributors of this thread for my scatological outbreak when I heard that Hockey was to be No 2 Shadow. I apologise for adding personal insult to political criticism and in future I will confine myself to polite commentary.
64 Andrew E Feb 16th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
No. You are just committing the same mistake that myopic doomsayers used to make a decade ago when Beazley et al were on the ropes. The offices of state magnify govt and diminish opposition figures from their true stature.
Turnbull obviously made his run too early. A tad tragic considering the mans considerable talents. But he is a Republican so dont feel too sorry for him.
Abbott will is not electable as a leader but he is a very useful minister to have near a camera, microphone or op-ed.
Costello is not a hack. AUS looks like it will get out of the GFC relatively less-scathed, despite being at high risk due to reliance on now-costlier capital imports and now-chearp mineral exports. His ministry can justly claim some credit for us dodging the worst of these bullets.
Nor is he a franchisee. He is his own man. But now that the Master has left the stage he is no longer standing in the shadow.
I predict that Costello will lead the LN/P to a future election beyond the next one scheduled for 2010.
Costello is 51 years of age. He can bide his time for another one, or even two, election cycles and still rise to the leadership well before the age of 60 years.
Remember Howard assumed the Premiership in his 57th year. He too was written off in 1987, nearly nine years before that. And yet he came back, when the time was right.
The ALP will win the next term (2010) and most likely the term after that (2013). But all bets are off for the election scheduled in 2016. So Costello still has a shot at the Big One.
But what if he does turn out to be a fat fart. Fat Fart Hockey. I like that. On a par with Ratty, Emo Man, Viscount Turnbull, etc. Especially if it turns out all he can do is spout shit. After all, it is the Liberal Party we’re talking about here.
LO, I reckon that lumbering Rudd with Swan post the election, was just about the only thing Howard and Co. took off him during the campaign – with the big “well whose gunna be Treasurer after the election” question about 1/2 way thru the campaign.
And the MSM megaphoned straight back – “yeah, whose gunna be the Treasurer if youse get elected, huh, huh?”
And Rudd with his Jeanette-like ability to read the polling consequence of flicking his fringe with his left hand while facing south – said emphatically, “Rooster No. 1, of course” and the circus moved on.
Why he didn’t promote Tanner to Shadow Treasurer straight away after becoming Opp. Leader considering that Tanner supported him, not the Beazer like Swanny did…..spose you had to be there?
Anyways ‘Roosters’ is another Latho – he didn’t give us much but he was pretty good at giving a dog a name — Heavy Kevvie – still the best two word summing up of the bloke. I suspect it takes one to know one in Mark’s case.
joe2: apologies, thanks PatriciaWA.
PaulB: oh, I’ve never claimed the whole “Labor is scared of” thing has any basis in reality. I’d suggest the Catwoman/Schoolmarm/Dominatrix thing was designed to channel Margart Thatcher, to get people looking at Bishop as something more than just a middle-ranking functionary.
Andrew E @ 81.
I didn’t think you did, mate. You know me. Sometimes I can’t resist having fun at the expense of politicians who are RWDBs.