Anna Bligh is at Government House to seek a dissolution of Parliament for an election on March 21.
Previous LP coverage of the 2009 Queensland election can be found here.
Please treat this as an open thread for information, analysis, speculation and adding links.
More to come later on today or tonight.
Update: Me in today’s Crikey:
Around 11am this morning, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh drove the short distance from George Street in Brisbane’s CBD to Government House in Bardon to ask Governor Penelope Wensley to dissolve parliament for an election to be held on the 21st of March. Bligh might have considered as she drove through Paddington that as she passed from funky inner citydom to leafy upmarket suburbia she never left Labor territory. If some such thought passed through the Premier’s mind, it might serve as a metaphor for the stakes of the coming battle.
In fact, Bligh could have driven almost anywhere in Brisbane without hitting a Liberal held seat, and done that at any time since the first Peter Beattie landslide in 2001. It’s not that upper middle class as well as swinging voters have necessarily become enamoured of state Labor, though Beattie’s pizzazz certainly didn’t hurt while the romance lasted. It’s rather that the Liberals and Nationals have presented an unelectable face over the past three elections.
If Lawrence Springborg had gone for a drive around town this morning, he might have been thinking about the traffic jams and the shiny new hospitals which still generate a drumbeat of horror stories in the media day by day. Springborg and the LNP will be hoping voters focus on infrastructure, education and health, and decide that eleven years is long enough. Bligh, by contrast, will be running against the Nationals and painting the Borg and his crew as both inexperienced and having been round the block too many times without much of a record of achievement. But, above all, Bligh will be arguing that tough economic times require proven leadership – that’s why the election follows on so closely from the state’s budget review on Friday.
The stakes in this contest are high – and at federal level as well. A loss in Kevin Rudd’s own heartland would be unthinkable for the Prime Minister. But – equally – the newly amalgamated LNP would lie in tattered ruins if the Borg can’t surmount the forbidding electoral mountain in his way. And whatever is left – after even a narrow defeat – won’t look pretty. Labor has to be favoured to win this election, but past experience shows that campaigns – which in true Queensland style can be quite mad and surprising despite all the best efforts of the apparatchiks to script them minutely – do matter. It’ll be a fascinating ride.
Update: Anna Bligh on YouTube on her reasons for going early:
Update: Elsewhere – Possum (and more Possum), The Poll Bludger and The Tally Room.
Update: John Quiggin.
Update: There was a link in a previous post, but it’s worth posting a reminder that Antony Green’s election guide is a site well worth visiting.
Labor will lose.
“We Were Right!” – Oz
Interesting prediction Spiros. Why?
My own view is that Labor will hold on with a reduced majority unless things go seriously awry in terms of Green preferences (or “just vote one” votes).
I’m beginning to lean towards Spiros’s call.
Given the size of the swing required and the LNP’s uninspiring leader, it should be no-brainer win for Bligh. Yet I’m getting the feeling that there is a lot of unhappiness out in the traps which could yet translate into an upset result a la WA.
Paul
Bligh is unloved; failures of service delivery; health scandals; budget deficit; inevitable turning of the wheel; Queensland natural conservatism.
For no obvious reason, the hard core of the ALP in my town has been saying (for months) that Anna Bligh deserves to lose, and that Springborg will be good for Qld.
That is the inner circle, the ones that if the ALP came & killed their children, they’d still vote for the ALP.
This is not a good omen for the Qld ALP.
Looks like a bad call from down South.
Spiros, agree that your first five points will all weigh against Labor. The last one needs to be qualified by noting that the political culture of south-east Queensland has been transformed in recent decades by urbanisation, suburbanisation and the influx of large numbers of southern states migrants who were never socialised into “natural Queensland conservatism”. This is where the merger and the domination of the LNP by National Party faces will hurt the LNP.
And in response to SATP’s point, the LNP seriously needs to make inroads in metropolitan SEQ in order to win the election.
Yep, Im scratching my head as to why ANY state premier would ‘go early’ given recent trends.
Still, props to Mark and his sources for picking it. But seriously… why??
6, Steve, Please don’t say that. I don’t think I can stand to listen to “The Borg” for the next several years. Besides sounding thick he is thick. He would be the worst for Qld at this time. If the LNP were to put someone who not only sounded like they knew what they are talking about, but sounded intelligent also, then I would be waiting in line to vote for them, the Borg doesn’t fit that criteria.
Paul, don’t kid yourself. Queensland is still a naturally anti-Labor state. Proof: Labor still holds a minority of federal seats, despite winning 10 or so last time.
It was only Beattie’s political genius that gave the impression of a political transformation. The pathology that gave us Joh and Russ Hinze is still alive.
Spiros, Labor holds 16 out of 29 Queensland federal seats. The other point is that several of the non-Labor members are Liberals elected standing as Liberals, with the Liberals as senior partner in the Coalition, and a Liberal Prime Minister leading the former Coalition Government. To reiterate, the prospect of voting for an LNP candidate in a Nationals-led LNP is a different kettle of fish, especially in the south-east.
I’ve updated the thread with the story I’ve just written for today’s Crikey.
I’ve also added Anna Bligh’s YouTube where she gives her reasons for going early.
I dont think the LNP can win it, but I have little doubt it will be a lot closer than previous years. As noted above the LNP will be riding a wave of discontented previous ALP voters – but they can’t win it without policies.
I’ve discussed my thoughts here.
Bligh doesn’t deserve to win, but neither does the Borg. Can’t we just have no state government at all?
Is Anna always that wooden?
Not greatly inspiring.
Anna Bligh’s YouTube does her no favours but with a margin of more than 8% overall, it’s hard to see why her government won’t be returned albeit with a reduced margin.
It will be interesting to see where the Borg does most of his campaigning. He prefers the ‘bush’ but that’s not where he needs the significant swings.
The other matter which has escaped notice thus far is that a hung parliament is far from improbable. Six seats in the current Queensland parliament are held by minor parties and independents, and it is more likely than not that at least three of them (most likely Nicklin, Gladstone and Maryborough) will remain in independent hands. In 1998 Peter Wellington, the member for Nicklin, agreed to support a Labor minority government headed by Beattie, but he also made it clear that his first preference was for a Coalition government and that he had decided to support Labor because no Coalition government could be formed without the support of the eleven One Nation MPs.
Just had a look through all the candidates. I can’t find the ALP candidate for Moggill. Maybe they’ve decided not to run in there?
Antony Green does a great job again.
It has to be a truly massive landslide for the Government to lose, really. Still, Mark said it all: “It’ll be a fascinating ride.”
Lothar – after his last electoral performance surely Flegg is a life member of the ALP. I seriously thought they’d ever find a bigger dill, but the new Lib/Nat deputy McAr-dill is comedy gold.
Southern pundits : the Pinapple Party (aka the LNP) are so lazy, stupid and dis-united (to quote the Borg)that those centrebet odds for Labor are looking mighty juicy indeed. The ALP’s odds are just going to get shorter as this campaign rolls on. Get your hard earned on Anna’s team NOW!
Update: Elsewhere – Possum (and more Possum), The Poll Bludger and The Tally Room.
Something for psephological tragics to watch for: will Muckadilla and Kilcummin retain their status as the only polling booths in Queensland to return a 100% vote for the LNP?
Being out of touch these days, I’d like to hear a credible scenario, from embedded Quincelanders, which has the LNP winning.
I’ll kick off with: up to 1% swing they didnt deserve and wouldnt have otherwise got, simply for Bligh going early.
But that wont be enough. And I cant see where the rest comes from. The ‘N’ part of LNP will stink like a dead water rat in Brisbane. Which, I assume, is where most of the seats have to come from.
Punters? Why should we be gripped? Interesting yes, but close – no?
I think ‘credible’ might be a stretch. Assuming no big events happen, I will expect Labor to be returned with a 4% swing against them.
1% for the early election, as you said.
3% for the ‘they’ve had their time and wasted it’ mob
0% for people being wooed by Borg’s policies
4% is probably a good ballpark for a starting set of assumptions. Remember it takes 7.6% for Labor to lose its majority and 8.3% for the Borg to gain a majority. I can’t see it, but I genuinely think a lot depends on the campaign.
You’d be a brave punter to back the Borg at this stage of the game though.
First lie of the election – “I’ll go full term”
Come one QLD don’t give the Bligh/Beattie gov another go to take us down the NSW Labor path. Now they have 25% support in the polls. Bligh is going early before more bad news gets out.
Btw, if you have a look at Antony Green’s election calculator, a uniform 4% swing against Labor sees them losing 8 seats. Which would still give them a very respectable 51 out of 89.
But in reality, I think there’ll be swings all over the shop. Gold Coast might not be good for the ALP, nor some of the regional seats they hold. But the key really is Brisbane.
Lefty E, I’ve just been playing with Antony Green’s Interactive Election Calculator. If Labor holds the SEQ swing to just 4%, then even with a 10% swing against them in regional Queensland they are still holding 44 seats and just need one of the expected four independents to support them. Conversely, with a 10% SEQ swing and a 4% regional swing, the LNP have 46 seats and form a government.
Also, assuming a uniform statewide swing, Labor would need to lose Redcliffe, Townsville and Cairns to fall behind the LNP (42 to 43). All these seats remained Labor in a bad year (1995).
Update: John Quiggin.
@30 – Thanks, Paul, that prompted me to update the post:
Update: There was a link in a previous post, but it’s worth posting a reminder that Antony Green’s election guide is a site well worth visiting.
Thanks all, yeah, I also like 4% as a base from which to measure the impact of the campaign itself. So that’s 51-34-4 on Antony’s site, if uniform.
I wouldnt rule out Bligh winning the campaign though – that is, Marmaduke’s “0% for people being wooed by Borg’s policies” (heh) might even be optimistic for the LNP
I really dont see any policy issues where the LNP can gain real traction with SEQ voters… and I’ve tried to think of some!
Infrastructure, the economy and health are showing up as the most important in the polling.
Sun rising in the East heh Mark!
Has a woman ever lead a party to victory in an election in Australia?
Hannah’s Dad: Clare Martin won in the NT, a far more Labor-hostile place than QLD.
Not at federal or state level, hannah’s dad, although it has to be said that part of the reason why Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner were allowed to become premiers of WA and Victoria was that their male colleagues and predecessors had rendered their respective Labor governments unreelectable.
And Liam is right about Clare Martin at Territory level. We can add Kate Carnell for the Liberals in the ACT and Rosemary Follett for Labor in the ACT before that.
Possum @ 36 – heh!
Paul’s bit of history at #39 was what prompted me to wonder, and hope, if a victory by Anna would be a historic ‘first’.
I was not aware of the other wins by women Liam and Paul listed, should have been but wasn’t.
Still if the ALP can/does win at state level this time with Anna at tyhe helm it will be a symbolic breakthrough for women of some import.
Joan Sheldon led the Liberal Party (though not the opposition) to victory in 1995 in Qld. The Libs won 15/89 seats, their best result since 1980 and a high water mark they’ve not yet returned to.
d
Last year here in Western Australia we the People stood up with courage and said no more to an incompetent Carpenter Labor Government which was governing our state through pure spin. I hope the people of Queensland will also find this courage to stand up to the failed Labor Government of Queensland under Anna Bligh, and say no more spin, it is time for a change. Who will show this courage? I wonder?
I remember that year – One Nation winning 25% of the Queensland vote. Unbelievable. Borbidge (sp?) had said he wouldn’t go into coalition with them but went back on his promise as soon as the votes were in. We came within a hair’s breadth of having One Nation in the government.
No not the Borginator please, please. Only in Queensland could a creature of this awesome banality ever get to be elected to any-thing. Well fellow creature Borbidge made it to premier, possibly the worst ever after Jo.
Anna Blight looks really animated in comparison to the Borg, she will win.
Would the Borg make a total meal of the downgrade of the Queensland credit rating by S&P’s ? Oh yes; http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/21/2497607.htm?section=justin.
Huggy.
I wonder if much will be made of the loss of the Queensland Government AAA rating via Standard and Poors on the weekend. Even if S&P should have had their rating dropped due to past poor performance.
You beat me to it Huggy!
Pretty pissy backdrop in Anna’s Youtube. Looks like public access TV.
“I suggest a very modern suit, hi-tech furniture, high-energy yellow wallpaper, abstract paintings. In fact, everything to disguise the absence of anything new in the speech.”
“I’ll go back to my original dynamic speech about the Grand Design.”
“Fine, then it’s the reassuring traditional background, dark suit, oak panelling,leather volumes, 18th-century portraits. One other thing – opening music. Once again, Bach – new ideas; Stravinsky – no change.”
“…Borbidge made it to premier, possibly the worst ever after Jo[h]”
Two words: Russell Cooper.
Online Board Odds from The Alice.
LABOR PARTY 1.50
LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY 2.50
NLP doesn’t have a lot of talent in the ranks to help persuade the voters of SEQ. Offhand, can’t recall any vote-catchers of charisma let alone sparkle. The Borg is earnest enough but his his proneness to monotonal droning near a mic is not an electoral asset. Think one of his people would have mentioned this after losing the last couple of campaigns.
Still, as Antony Green says, a lot has changed.
Talk about a quickie though, be all over is less than a month.
As elections go, this one’s a knee-trembler.
Paul Norton- Labor have already lost Cairns.
“No not the Borginator please, please. Only in Queensland could a creature of this awesome banality ever get to be elected to any-thing”
I’ll see your Lawrence Springborg and raise you Morris Iemma.
Spiros @53.
Ok I fold.
You win.
Huggy
I would amdmit even as labor supporter Im dissapointed that the Government has at times dragged its feet on policies and made error. Im also prepared to change however I wont! My vote will go to labor without doubt. Why? I have met springborg and several of teh opposition. Why you ask? Because I want to make an good decision this time knowing I did put effort into it. The opposition has always had very weak policy and just has never really presented a strong front. I met lawerence on two occasions and he is just so incredibly cocky and arrogant and just is not a convincing man I dont trust him as much as Id like to. he has beceom to scripted and reads this to well and again Im not convinced this and inexperience is the right thing for us just yet.
Though arguably he was worse as Police Minister under Borbidge than as Premier for about six weeks.
I will never vote for the National Party and that’s all the Borg’s mob are with the Santoro faction of the old Libs joined up. As for the rest of the Borg’s team – a completely hopeless bunch. And after all the years of Joh, Cooper and then the nasty Borbidge years when thugs like Horan went on their payback binges, I never want to live under another National Party gov’t again. I don’t hsve much confidence in the Qld Greens either. Fancy accepting Ronan Lee into their ranks! And our local Green candidate seems to think she’s a surrogate Liberal. So I’ve got no choice but 1 Labor.
Mark,
Given Quiggin says this:
Will you be apologising to The Australian for suggesting they were in an alternative universe for saying this:
No, Stephen. As I said, they’d been saying the same thing day out and day in and one day they were bound to get it right. And, additionally, if you’d been following what I’ve been arguing (and there’s more to come) – the economic situation didn’t “put pressure” on Bligh to go to an election. She chose to go to an election because:
(a) She will probably win it;
(b) Her calculation is that the economic situation is going to help her win it.
The argument (such as it is) in The Australian appears to be a combination of:
(a) Something has changed – therefore there must be an election;
(b) The economy is getting worse – therefore Bligh will call an election now.
The first is an instance of what the problem is with MSM political analysis/reporting too often – a lack of understanding of the actual political dynamics and an addiction to the post ergo propter hoc fallacy. The second argument is what LNP “sources” have been banging on about.
What we weren’t getting was either a serious attempt to find out what the ALP was thinking – as opposed to what the pundits and/or their sources in the opposition thought should be happening or any real understanding of how the campaign will develop.
But, actually, I’m more interested in covering the campaign from now on than writing about others’ coverage. Life’s too short, and I’ve got too much else to do at the moment. So perhaps you’ll forgive me if I don’t engage further on this particular ground.
As an outsider I’m wondering if the north and west will particularly resent Bligh going early if they’re still flood bound. I accept that Brisbane is the key but will Bligh lose seats where bigger factors are occupying minds. The insurance bill alone is expected to be bigger than the Victorian fires. Brumby going early in Vic is the only unimaginable comparison I can draw on.
It’s a relevant point, pablo. Remember, though, that the parties are much more closely matched in terms of seats outside Brisbane – it may be that a few regional seats could effectively have been conceded by Labor. Though I’d be a tad surprised – I can think of a few up north where I know substantial campaign resources are being put into retaining them.
Anna will win. The influx of wetbacks over the years has gradually lifted the average Queensland IQ towards the national average. They will see Borgmeister is just a really dumbed down Kennet and will work assiduously to prevent his ascendency.
However it may take another generation to get that IQ up so perhaps the Borg has a chance.
Then again perhaps IQ has nothing to do with it; maybe the charm, wit and striking good looks of the original denizens will suffice to keep the evil Borg out of office.
Huggy
I’m not sure IQ is the best or most charitable way to think about it. But there’s a point there in that demographics and mindsets in Queensland have changed very rapidly – and it’s not just a matter of Mexican immigration. Most Queenslanders up to about 45 have now benefited from a much higher and better standard of education than was once the case, there have been big changes in population location and the urbanisation/feel of a lot of the regional as well as metropolitan areas, and social conservatism has been on the wane for a long time. The Borg kinda sorta knows this – hence the whole “new” rhetoric – but he’s really not convincing in the role. They’ve got no one else though – the high profile Liberals are Santoro faction thugs, and the Nats are, well, obviously Nats for the most part.
Speaking of utterly totally crap north of the Murray premiers.
Barry Unsworth!
I get some kinda prize for this, don’t I? Yes I do. Because it’s my turn!
OK, have a go at the Victorians as well.
But aside from Lindsay Thompson and Joan Kirner being frantically handed hand grenades with a missing pin, the history of Vic premiers over the past 60 years or so has basically been a bunch of blokes who, regardless of their political affiliations, could never be called indecisive cyphers.
There is an essential smugness about Victoria the rest of you well never cease to be narked by.
Yes, smug.
That’s because we Vctorians live in a State of Victorian Excellence is it not? Best climate. We claim “St Petersburg” over “Tinsel Town”. We were the Capital, awhile. We enjoy literary pretensions. Our pretensions abound. We don’t bother with “cocky” – too vulgar. “Superior” suffices.
Now just go away; sulk if you must, but go away.
You leave Melbourne, the Athens of the south, where culture and refinement dwells and travel north. We will not speak of New South Wales, to do so would be to really distress the more sensitive of our readers.
Eventually you find yourself in the city of Brisbane. Famished by now you find your way to Park Road in Milton.
There in a faux Italian restaurant you order pasta. The pasta arrives neatly served in a cold bowl, repeat cold bowl. It is then you realise: That aside from the ability to speak without the moving of lips, the locals do not have enough intelligence to realise that pasta is never served in cold bowls.
The Huggy campaign to change this is ongoing and determined, intelligence will win.
Huggy
Steve Green wrote:
In the words of a once prominent Queensland politician: please explain.
@67 – Huggy – go to Arriva in New Farm. Melbs has bad faux-Italian joints too, you know. (Though not as far as I know a small Eiffel Tower!)
“You leave Melbourne, the Athens of the south”
You’re getting Melbourne mixed up with Nashville.
A common trap for young players, but we know what you mean. Air pollution and waste management problems, bad stuck-in-the-seventies urban ‘design’ and not liking Turks – That’s Marvellous Melbourne for you!
Your zen-like parable of the cold plate reminds me less of the Athenians and more of Zeno of Elea. Much as he believed that despite the evidence of our senses, motion is impossible, Brisbane presents your senses with a meal that you argue cannot exist. I hope it was served with a suitable sauce – colourless green pesto perhaps?
I do applaud your enthusiasm for tackling the popular pox of pasta plate temperature, but I doubt you’ll ever convince Melburnians to give up their big city hot plated ways. Or their nonsensically wide rail gauge. Hmm, I wonder what Megas Alexandros would have done?
d
Daryl Rosin @ 70
Alexander would put all the politicians to the sword on the grounds that they are insane. He would then install Theo from the fruit shop on Boundary road as the sole ruler of the state.
BTW you reckon the wide gauge is bad, try the Victorian version of Morse code. It was different from that of the whole world and required that gentlemen sat in rows in Eucla and passed messages through holes to each other to be re-transmitted in international code. Ah those were the days.
Now we get Borgs with delusions of adequacy aspiring to the premiership.
Huggy
Do they remember WA last year? Don’t they know that the electorate hates early elections and the waste of money they represent? Do they actually want to lose?
Melbourne, the Athens of the South. So Brisbane is the Constantinople of the North, and Sydney the Decadent Rome of the in-between (can’t make up its mind)?
It is wonderful to see Pauline Hanson back on the political scene.
Mrs Hanson has the proud record of ending the multi-culti industry, and ending Un-Australian political correctness.
With such a proud record, Pauline hanson will serve the people of Queensland well.
Melbourne the Athens of the South? Sydney is definitely then simultaneously the ancient gloriously corrupt Constantinople and modern, fun, suburban Istanbul, with Parramatta Road its Bosphorus.