KPMG consultant and media columnist Bernard Salt has been available for comment on just about any social or demographic topic for some years now. These comments rarely do justice to the hard work of statistical analysis performed by real demographers, for instance at the ABS, but journalists and editors rarely let that get in the way of a choice quote or column by this ubiquitous “commentator and advisor to corporate Australia on consumer, cultural and demographic trends.”
Salt is the master of the sweeping generalisation and throw-away insult. Today’s comments in the Murdoch press are a good example:
“Migration figures out this week show Australia’s population is still growing at record rates, and these people must live somewhere. They go to the most affordable areas, and the fastest growing area at the moment is Melbourne’s western front – places like Werribee, where you can still pick up a house and land package for less than $260,000,” Mr Salt said.
“The urban elite think that if something is more than walking distance from their terrace house boundary, it must be unsophisticated and uncivilised.
“It’s the modern version of the cultural cringe that you need to be near cafes, bars and restaurants for this culture to rub off on you. People are living just as meaningful lives going to little athletics, to church and the local sausage sizzle. This satellite existence is the new Australia.”
Actually, no it’s not.
The first paragraph is at least an assertion of fact, which can be checked against ABS figures for accuracy. I did, and found that Werribee (in the City of Wyndham) is not actually the fastest-growing area in Australia, in either absolute or percentage terms; while Wyndham is growing fast, adding nearly 9000 residents in the 12 months to June 2008 for a growth rate of 7.2%, other local government areas are growing even faster, including the Shire of Serpentine-Jarrahdale south-east of Perth, and the City of Perth itself.
In fact, the ABS figures show the whole thrust of Salt’s comments are inaccurate. To quote the ABS report:
The LGAs with the largest and fastest population increases in Australia in 2007-08 were both inner-city LGAs. The largest increase (17,400 people) occurred in Brisbane (C), Australia’s most populous capital city LGA. Perth (C) was Australia’s fastest-growing LGA, increasing in population from 13,600 to 15,100, an annual growth rate of 10.8%. This is the fifth consecutive year in which Perth (C) has been the fastest-growing capital city LGA.
Salt’s final two paragraphs barely deserve discussion. Attacking that venerable straw man, the “urban elites”, plays well with Murdoch journalists eager to file some supporting “expert opinion” in their copy, but this particular assertion is completely unsupported by any data. And as for “this satellite existence” being the “new Australia”, the last time I checked, outer-suburban housing development has been going on in Australia for at least a century.
Got any more fallacies and outrageous generalisations from Bernard Salt? Post them here, and we’ll attempt to exert at least some scrutiny of Australia’s most-quoted and least accurate “demographer.”
UPDATE 18th August 2009:
Salt exchanges more groundless speculation on “Gen Y” with the ABC’s Geoff Hutchison.
contrast with Bernard Salt circa 2001:
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=1967
“The Top 10 list of growth areas usually comprises the beach and the ‘burbs. But the City of Melbourne is now in position No.7, ranking it among the fastest growing areas in the country. This is the “downtown turnaround”, a value shift by Australians to embrace the inner city.”
Your rebuttal doesn’t quite work. He says the fastest growing area is the Western Front and includes an area from this as an example. This is undefined, you could try and work out what he is including. It may not just be Wyndham. Taylors Lakes, Point Cook and other areas could be included that are not in Wyndham.
I think OP Ben is trying to defend his own “urban elitism” from a little bit of criticism from the sides
.
I plead guilty, Rationalist, I live in the inner-city in a $300/wk share-house. Even more damning, I like cafe lattes!
Of course, Bernie isn’t an ‘urban elite’ at all, is he – he’s a battler. I mean, those urban elitist w*nkers wouldn’t be seen dead working for a little suburban outfit like KPMG, would they?
Werribee? As in home of the Werribee Sewage Farm? Perhaps that’s the reason why the area between Melbourne and Geelong is so curiously underpopulated. None of this “cultural cringe” and “lack of sophistication” nonsense. It’s that most people don’t like to wake up to the smell of sewage.
I know. They had to have the sewage plant somewhere, and I gather it is a birdwatchers’ paradise – the sort of place my late father would have loved to be with binoculars and notebook. It’s probably the closest Melbourne equivalent to Pinkenba, a place was taken to plenty of times as a lad. But visiting the place isn’t the same as living there.
Pedro, I think he probably means Melton, Wyndham and adjoining areas. All of which are indeed experiencing strong growth. But the City of Perth is growing faster than these areas, and parts of suburban Brisbane (for instance Mango Hill) are growing faster still.
Ben, when you have to be a little careful with that ABS quote.
First, when it says that the Brisbane LGA had the largest increase of any LGA, you have to remember that doesn’t imply one of the largest percentage gains, because the Brisbane LGA has an enormous population. LGAs in Australia do not have an even distribution of population.
Second, it would be surprising if many of the fastest growing LGAs in Australia weren’t in WA and QLD, considering that they are the two fastest growing states, and have been for some time.
Third, Pedro’s point about comparing like with like is important. Often LGA boundaries don’t conform to the areas we talk about in discussions like this. So, population growth of different suburbs within the same LGA can vary enormously.
To test Salt’s hypothesis properly, one would have to break the ABS data down into smaller areas, match those areas with local housing prices, and then test whether there was a tendency for population growth to be faster in more affordable areas on the urban fringe.
FWIW, there is some RBA research floating about that suggests that housing affordability is one of the key variables stimulating inter-regional migration in Australia.
That said, Salt does tend to make some crass generalisations from his population analysis. But that is hardly surprising. He isn’t an academic and his work is primarily commercial in its application in that he aims to identify social and demographic trends and sell that information to clients.
LO, agreed. You can’t compare the Brisbane LGA to a small outer-suburban shire. But after all, percentage growth is still percentage growth. I’m not taking issue with the claim that the western edge of Melbourne is rapidly growing. I’m just pointing out it’s not the fastest growing part of Australia – that title belongs to inner-urban Perth. And I’m also arguing, of course, that Bernard Salt’s commentary is, as you say, is full of crass generalisations.
I’m relieved to read that the battlers are out of spitting range vis a vis those horrible, bullying, terrace-hogging elitists.
Finally, the battlers have found sanctuary.
I loathe Salt, particularly for his ‘generational’ analyses.
He’s been at the vanguard of this movement to infect every commentary on every aspect of Australian life with a facile ‘generational’ angle. Somehow people who are born within 15 or so years of each other are expected to share characteristics, opinions and habits with one another, and be sharply defined against those of other groups.
Such a suggestion founded on other characteristics (gender, race, eye colour, favourite colour) would be deemed offensive.
Note that I do think that there is some distinction between generations; clearly, attitudes and social mores evolve over time. However, in the hands of a pop demographer (love the term) like Salt, relatively minor differences are conflated to such drastic levels that it’s as if the different generations are in fact different species. This way of thinking seems to have become de rigeur, with slagging off “Gen Y” now a national sport.
Plus, today’s column mistakenly asserts that witlof (aka belgian endive) is Asian, and that rocket is the same as radicchio.
Reading just that extract, he doesn’t explicitly define “fastest growing area” as the area with the fastest growing population. He could be talking about the number of houses built or more likely, the number of first homebuyers, given that is what the article is about.
He might be guilty of being imprecise but you can’t say he is wrong; not on the basis of your argument so far.
That’s Salt’s whole modus operandi… Take some small isolated factoid of questionable provenance, then expand it to become some all-consuming theory of everything (“everyone’s tree-changing!”, “gen Y: they all live at home!”, “everyone’s moving to the inner city!”, “battlers defy elites by moving to suburbs!”, etc).
No Paul, nor on the basis of his having been wrongheaded every time he’s put pen to paper, ever.
Still, at a certain point it’s surely okay to point and laugh.
Mad props to #11 – Salt’s sustained attacks on anyone born since 1981 have left me with a complete inability to read more than a paragraph of his without having to suppress the urge to kill. Even more fun, his influence seems to have spawned a horde of ‘management consultants’ trading almost wholly on managerial fears about how to deal with new staff and their ca-razy lack of blind loyalty and desire for work/life balance.
And that was before I saw his stupid hairdo…
“Somehow people who are born within 15 or so years of each other are expected to share characteristics, opinions and habits with one another, and be sharply defined against those of other groups.
Such a suggestion founded on other characteristics (gender, race, eye colour, favourite colour) would be deemed offensive.”
Zis is vot I call ze “Sociological Fallacy”. You find an average characteristic, zen you claim the average to be held by ALL of the group. Zis sets ze ‘standard deviation’ equal to zero. Zis is ze Higher Bulldust.
Und you ken do zis wiz Class or social class, und it’s still bulldust.
Grumphy@15: oh yes, there’s a quid in it all right. But when I was mentoring a “classic” gen Y recruit a couple of years ago, we both found many things we could relate to in common. And while said Gen Y dropped some “stereotypical” Gen Y beliefs pretty damn quick, it wasn’t a case of “Babyboomer wins/Gen Y loses” but rather a more stereotypical case of introduction to the wonderful world of work, I’m sure we all went through it at that age.
Salt is a bit of a drip but I don’t think he’s wrong here.
Werribee is a generalisation for Wyndham/Melton and it is growing fast. So is Hume, Whittlesea and Casey Cranbourne. I haven’t got time to look it up but I’d be willing to call bullshit that inner Perth and inner Brissy are growing faster on any meaningful comparison.
Therefore I point the fickle finger of fate and accuse you of “doing a salt” with the figures.
Here:http://www.ngaa.org.au/
All figures for 2007/08. Direct quotes from the ABS below:
“The LGA of Wyndham (C), located on the western suburban fringe of Melbourne SD, experienced the largest and fastest growth (8,900 people or 7.2%) of all Victorian LGAs.”
“The three most populous LGAs in Australia – Brisbane (C), Gold Coast (C) and Moreton Bay (R) – also recorded the largest increases in population in the year to June 2008. The population of Brisbane (C) increased by 17,400 people (1.7%), the Gold Coast (C) by 13,200 people (2.7%), and Moreton Bay (R) by 11,800 people (3.4%).”
“Perth (C) was Australia’s fastest-growing LGA, increasing in population from 13,600 to 15,100, an annual growth rate of 10.8%. This is the fifth consecutive year in which Perth (C) has been the fastest-growing capital city LGA.”
“Many LGAs which experienced large and/or rapid growth were located on or near the boundaries of capital city SDs, where land is available for subdivision and housing development.”
“The LGAs of Wanneroo (C) and Swan (C), on the northern and north-eastern outskirts of the Perth SD recorded strong growth, increasing by 8,600 and 4,300 people respectively. Wanneroo (C) also had the second-highest growth rate (6.8%) of all outer-suburban LGAs in the Perth SD, behind Serpentine-Jarrahdale (S) (7.6%) in the south-east. In the Brisbane SD, rapid growth continued in the outer-suburban SLAs of Wakerley (19.1%) in the south-east and Griffin-Mango Hill (14.7%) in the Moreton Bay (R) LGA.”
“In 2007-08, the three largest metropolitan population declines in Australia were in long-established inner-suburban LGAs within the Sydney SD. Ashfield (A) decreased by 290 people, closely followed by Manly (A) (270) and Lane Cove (A) (220).”
Top 20 growth rates 2008-08 by LGA:
Perth (C) Perth 8 973 13 635 15 113 11.0 1 478 10.8
2 Ravensthorpe (S) WA Balance 1 561 2 293 2 501 9.9 208 9.1
3 Serpentine-Jarrahdale (S) Perth 12 237 14 201 15 281 4.5 1 080 7.6
4 Wyndham (C) Melbourne 96 954 123 919 132 793 6.5 8 874 7.2
5 Melton (S) Melbourne 64 965 86 449 92 465 7.3 6 016 7.0
6 Wanneroo (C) Perth 94 022 125 706 134 258 7.4 8 552 6.8
7 Murray (S) WA Balance 11 657 13 037 13 825 3.5 788 6.0
8 Cardinia (S) Melbourne 50 513 60 944 64 310 4.9 3 366 5.5
9 Palmerston (C) Darwin 22 981 26 574 28 030 4.1 1 456 5.5
10 Mandurah (C) WA Balance 51 905 61 624 64 787 4.5 3 163 5.1
11 Litchfield (S) Darwin 15 633 17 385 18 277 3.2 892 5.1
12 Kwinana (T) Perth 22 445 25 128 26 387 3.3 1 259 5.0
13 Wyndham-East Kimberley (S) WA Balance 7 344 7 310 7 662 0.9 352 4.8
14 Dardanup (S) WA Balance 9 431 11 613 12 167 5.2 554 4.8
15 Busselton (S) WA Balance 24 314 27 893 29 183 3.7 1 290 4.6
16 Capel (S) WA Balance 8 020 11 415 11 935 8.3 520 4.6
17 Harvey (S) WA Balance 18 386 21 550 22 529 4.1 979 4.5
18 Wellington (A) NSW Balance 8 648 8 345 8 711 0.1 366 4.4
19 Swan (C) Perth 89 987 101 129 105 432 3.2 4 303 4.3
20 Rockingham (C) Perth 77 870 92 231 96 068 4.3 3 837 4.2
21 Ipswich (C) Brisbane 129 776 148 049 154 153 3.5 6 104 4.1
22 Melbourne (C) Melbourne 66 806 86 237 89 759 6.1 3 522 4.1
23 Whittlesea (C) Melbourne 123 044 133 897 139 250 2.5 5 353 4.0
24 Cairns (R) Qld Balance 134 122 152 668 158 653 3.4 5 985 3.9
25 Cockburn (C) Perth 72 140 81 474 84 652 3.3 3 178 3.9
Conclusion: It appears that Salt is broadly correct in identifying outer suburban LGAs as centres with rapid population growth, but it is the social analysis that accompanies it that problematic.
Is LO the most helpful and obliging commenter on LP? I’d suggest so.
BBB
About 18 months ago I stupidly bought his book “The Man Drought” without having a good leaf through it first. It wasn’t long before I started suffering buyer’s remorse. Amongst its gems are that Bernard is a climate change denialist, thinks the Y2K bug was a fraud perpetrated by grasping computer programmers, and is a great supporter of Andrew Bolt’s campaign to dam the Mitchell River, which I guess tells you everything you really need to know about him.
Anyway, after cursing my foolishness and throwing the book in the Vinnie bin, I gave it no further thought until I heard him pontificating on ABC Radio a month or so ago about how the Global Financial Crisis was going to change female preferences for male idols from nice sensitive guys like Zac Efron, to hairy chested he-men. The ‘logic’ went something like – The chicks are scared. They want to feel protected. Pretty boys don’t cut it anymore.
What a lot of drivel. How exactly would he prove it? I nearly vomited down the radio I was that annoyed. What really got me though was that he could cheerfully dismiss climate change and Y2K as frauds while promoting crap like this.
Still, at a certain point it’s surely okay to point and laugh.
You gen-Xers all just love to point and laugh!
Salt’s generalisations are usually annoying. More annoying is the willingness of the popular press to run his press releases as news.
However, the “urban elite” is not a straw man. There is clearly a self-identifying group of tertiary educated, inner-city dwelling, higher-than-median-wage-earning individuals who look down on the “burbs” as being uncivilised. I can name 10 right now. The questions is whether this self-identifying elite forms an actual elite.
“question” that is..
Just another self-hating urban elitist. Or does Bernard really live in Hoppers Crossing and drink International Roast? Methinks not.
My coffee of choice domestically for the last 20 years has been International Roast. Why must I be made to feel ashamed? What is it with elites and the instant coffee arm band of history? All good questions that Gerard Henderson could answer at length.
oh but patrickg, we must just NOT have these lies told about our favourite vegetables!
It just will NOT do!! What would Kylie of Kwong and Maggie of Barossa have to say about this?? I mean, to hear that cook and that chef prattling recently, you would think that culinary excellence began around Melb circa 1973. What tosh. What self-serving tosh. What nosh-tosh.
There is a circle of smug and self-serving publicists (I think I’ll call them “celebrities”) who sometimes lack broader knowledge but have voluble self-confidence. What a dreary combination.
They are supported by those whose self-regard and myopia causes others to point and laugh. I think that pointing and laughing is the best course of action. Try to say something and they’ll yawn vociferously or go snide.
If Labor Outsider’s list is correct, it seems like a lot of you folks are moving to WA. Could you stop that please? The lines at Coles are already long enough.
Also, on Salt being wrong about things: he thinks that Beauty and the Geek is an excellent idea for a TV show.
Shut up, and keep that list close to your chest, Epstein’s Mother. Don’t you know that stealth is our most potent weapon?
Just on population growth for municipalities, and thank you LO; an area with a low population can have a large % growth and yet only a modest absolute growth. I think they call it “a large % but off a low base”.
just saying.
“Also, on Salt being wrong about things: he thinks that Beauty and the Geek is an excellent idea for a TV show.”
I’ve only seen a couple of eps of one of the US seasons, but it was funny and sweet and surprisingly revealing at times. That’s not to say it was an excellent idea, but it was well executed.
d
Yes, thanks to LO for the further analysis. The full ABS report is well worth a read by the way.
GC, I have yet to read The Man Drought, so I can’t comment …. but … as with most of these generational generalisations, I always like to refer LPers once again to Kate Crawford’s comprehensive demolition of them in Adult Themes.
“There is clearly a self-identifying group of tertiary educated, inner-city dwelling, higher-than-median-wage-earning individuals who look down on the “burbs” as being uncivilised.”
Yes, but why on earth does this make them “elites” in any meaningful sense?
And yes, the “I have a list” trope is a bit unfortunate
This pop demography crap truly is a blight on modern journalism. Just this morning I had to listen once again to an elder co-worker lecturing me ad nauseum about the numerous faults of character I must have been born with in 1988.
“I had to listen once again to an elder co-worker lecturing me ad nauseum”
It’s called a vomitorium, whippersnapper.
upstart – indeed these stereotypes are a burden to us all. Why only last week I had a jumped up 30-ish cow-orker twerp in brand name clothes declare to all and sundry that I didn’t know how to use email. All because I declared I couldn’t get MS Outlook to do what I wanted.
Never mind that I’ve used computers since the mid 70s and every email program that’s ever been written but have studiously avoided shit like MS Outlook until this workplace. Strangely others in the workplace patiently explained to the Gen whatever that MS Outlook isn’t email and email isn’t Outlook.
Funny old world isn’t it.
I was evidently too easily distracted by Twitter/Facebook/SMS to recall my abortive Latin education and spell that correctly. Truly, my generation will destroy civilisation.
Nah, you keep on truckin’ champ. I’m sure your generation has plenty to say about all kinds of stuff.
I was just amusing myself with the image of a nauseum, picturing a display of my finer spews.
FDB baby – the real elephant in the spreadsheet is your generation
Talkin’ ’bout what?
y-y-y-y-y-your g-g-g-g-g-
Or as Lenny might say:
“I remember you well from the Hyatt Hotel……”
I think by rights a Nauseum would have to be a sort of collection of the disgusting. An adjacent Vomitorium would be necessary, of course.
I note that our Dear Leader is not above this accursed pop demographics business: http://www.smh.com.au/national/k-rudds-cruddy-job–cleaning-loos-20090731-e3qu.html
Correctly, Upstart’s elder colleague would have lectured him ex nauseum.
(I do hope that this little jape doesn’t go on ad nauseam.)
Now, where has my pet rock got to? It’s walkies time.
That’s m-m-m-m-my g-g-g-generation to you, Mr. Holden!
Praise the Lord and pass the amphetamine.
Friedrich @16, well said!
“Zis sets ze ’standard deviation’ equal to zero. Zis is ze Higher Bulldust. Und you ken do zis wiz Class or social class, und it’s still bulldust.”
Exactly so!
danke schoen, Elise
I em being so grateful, I should next pen a leetle melody fuer you und calling it “ fuer Elise
