Newspoll came in last night with essentially a status quo result, with both parties one point up on primaries (and the 2PP changing one point down each way to 52-48 because of a measured fall in The Greens’ primary.)
I doubt that Kevin Rudd ever expected the ‘whacking’ in the polls he trumpeted. Rather, this was part of the rhetorical structure of the weekend of apologies – convincing the public that he’d already taken his medicine, and that they should think again about the government’s virtues (which he, and Ministers, have used the sorry-fest to remind everyone of) and think harder about the Coalition. A very similar line has been working wonders for Gordon Brown of late.
In other words, rather than offering the proverbial commentary on the polls, Rudd’s remarks are part of a set piece of political manoeuvring aiming to draw a line in the sand, and to establish a contrast between the government’s new policy announcements (the national curriculum and health) and the opposition’s negativity. That’s potentially quite an effective play when everything we’ve seen of of Abbott et al over the last few weeks has been pure opposition.
Incidentally, I’d repeat the point I’ve made a number of times before – among all sorts of other influences, commentary on the polls has an underlying and perhaps unexamined premise that a Liberal majority is the natural state of affairs. Otherwise, it’s hard to explain the narrative of trouble and crisis when Labor is still comfortably ahead. It’s as if the Coalition ever overtaking Labor spells doom and destruction for the Rudd government. It would not. It’s worth underlining the fact that governments are often behind in the polls, and come back to win elections. John Howard frequently appeared headed for defeat in each electoral cycle after his first win.
Trevor Cook provides a useful reminder another point of comparison – to the Rudd opposition of the late Howard years.
Speaking of which, those who talked about Howard’s comments and policy changes around the time of the Aston by-election in 2001 were making the better comparison than the chorus of ‘Beattie reborn!’ songsters. The difference, of course, is that Howard appeared headed for a genuine whacking in early 2001, while Rudd is sitting pretty.
While we’re talking polls, I’d also recommend a squizzy at Possum’s fascinating tables on the Essential Research questions about the assessment of leaders’ attributes.
Peter Dutton’s declared that the Coalition is opposed to the Rudd Government’s new health plan before it has been announced. He has beaten Christopher Pyne’s speed reading of the new national Year 9 history curriculum by closing his eyes and visioning what the new policy will be. With these supernatural powers, it is no wonder he is such a hit with the voters of Dickson.
I’m not personally convinced by these Bad News For Labor polls – yet. One thing that does concern me though is that the amount of attention that has been devoted to them will shift the narrative and exacerbate what is currently a latent and not-altogether-worrying trend.
@Terry, yep, you can see why he’s touted as leadership material.
But, seriously, opposing stuff before it’s announced really does start to paint them as completely uninterested in anything other than a quick restoration to their acccustomed ministerial thrones.
@Rachel – to some degree, the government’s media strategy is designed to regain momentum and regain control of the agenda. Having said that, I’d pay close attention to the voter expectations of a win question. If people start believing there might be an Abbott government, it’s undoubtedly going to be a bonus for Labor.
This is great news for
John McCainTony Abbott.And for
Sarah PalinerJulieBronwyn Bishop, no I meanBarnaby JoyceJoe Hockey.Yup, it will be interesting to see what happens with the polls over the next couple of weeks, as the government seeks to drive a positive agenda, away from the insulation kerfuffle, while the Opposition continues to oppose everything.
Some interesting soundbites from Rudd and Gillard on SBS News this evening adopting just this line of attack, as quoted here:
Even Rip Van Shanahan may wake from his slumber and observe a problem with the “All talk, no action” line on the one hand, and the pre-emptive opposing of everything by the Coalition on the other.
I see the media have framed Rudd’s weekend display as catharsis-by-apology. I also note Mark has referred to it as the “weekend of apologies”.
But I don’t recall him ever apologising, as such.
As far as I can tell, hitherto Rudd’s just being self-analytical of his and the Government’s work over the course of two-and-a-bit years, and accordingly he has delivered a pretty frank assessment.
Am I missing something, or is this another episode of Cassidy playing Chinese Whispers with O’Brien resulting in the latter delivering another inane interview on 7.30 last night?
Terry @7, Shanahan must be taking lessons from that Iraqi minister, whatsisname, who kept telling us that it was the Mother of All Battles, and we were being beaten to a pulp by their glorious army, backed by the will of Allah.
Someone must still have a list of his pronouncements – absolutely absurd flights of fancy, all of them. Perhaps Shanahan has them?
The Shanahan Technique cannot be revealed to outsiders, and those who witness how Shanahan reads an opinion poll must take a vow of silence, under threat of assassination by Mossad agents.
The Shanahan Technique is rumoured to involve the ritual slaughter of a chicken before The Dennis begins to read the poll.
@Elise The Americans are not in Baghdad, and is not an American helicopter.
@Terry The auspices are invalid if not taken by a properly constituted officer of the Republic. So whatever Dennis says of them is akin to P. Claudius Pulcher’s “They shall not eat? Then let them drink!”.
Watch for the trend.
Plenty of time.
I think what Kevin meant to say was that he expected “a wanking in the polls”. Which is pretty much what the Opposition Organ and it’s ABC Arm have been doing with the Newspoll results for quite some time now.
Well that bit has penetrated.
Apart from the ‘trend’, Dutton has form re the dreaded ‘cut and run’ mantra.
Seems to me, he’s limited to soundbites with no evidence of original thought.
These Liberals are resorting to those tropes that lost thewm the last election – you know, the one where Maxine became the member for Bennelong.
btw, I’ve given up watching cricket.
It’s a tragic day for cricket, Paul.
joe2 @ 16,
Indeed. The inglorious little bastard is already trying to bignote himself by horning in comments on the Bingle/fevola scandal, I’ve noticed. I thought we’d lost him to American cable for good.
Meanwhile Rudd and company will now wipe the floor with Abott and his ABC. (I wonder if Rudd was giving a subtle warning to our national broadcaster?)
“(I wonder if Rudd was giving a subtle warning to our national broadcaster?)”
When was that, Paul? I must have missed it.
Paul @ 16 I wondered if they’d already been given a private dressing down. Doesn’t the ABA have a role there? News bulletins today seemed refreshingly free of lead-ins featuring Opposition opinion on whatever. Government’s activities reasonably objectively reported and Tony Burke got a mention!
Did anyone else notice that?
I think there is an air of complacency here … I think Abbott is much brighter than people generally think and leadership may make him grow in stature rather than showing his foibles (such as foul language and tendency to overstretch).
Abbott will adjust style and message as he sees fit. My guess is if the health package is reasonable he’ll actually embrace it (despite the idiot for Dickson). If I were the Libs, in fact I would get every state leader together soon (including those campaigning) and publicly back it, so long as it’s a good package. I expect it could be. This would be straight from the Rudd play book. That way when Rudd get’s the reform at COAG, if he gets it, Abbott will look like the artitect of agreement (or pressure to agree). If I were a state Lib leader (especially during a campaign) I’d jump at the chance of looking more presidential, especially on health.
I think we’ll see a very competitive period in politics.
If I were Abbott I would do the above on health and seek a contrast with the inability of Rudd to deliver!
We’ll see.
Brumby, I think, is warning Rudd to back off.
joe2, Rudd using ABC to define Abbott. (My mind makes connections like that sometimes. While it frequently provides for good analysis, sometimes I read too much into things.)
@20 – Corin, since he’s already challenged Rudd to adopt his local hospital board thing, and decried this (before it’s released) as evilly bureaucratic, I doubt any statespersonlike bipartisanship will be forthcoming on health.
He’s sold himself to his own party and the media as Mr No.
He now faces the danger of falling victim to Rudd’s ‘A B C’ criticism – the old stereotype of the carping opposition leader who cares more for political point scoring than the country.
Conversely, if he were to flick the switch to bipartisanship, he’d open up another front every time he nixed anything else.
He might do tactical flexibility, but not strategic flexibility.
Mark, how do you know you can’t say yes and also want boards. I thibnk he’ll see the A,B, C thing coming. The libs are now stuck with Abbott so he’ll know he’s bigger than the people who put him in the job … as Nixon said: run to the right in the primary and to the centre in the main race … Abbott will do this. I think you’d be seriously underestimating the threat if you thought otherwise. Don’t get captured by your previous narrative, politics is a moving feast.
BTW, I think devolving power is good, I imagine a centralised take over will be about as far from the list of reforms as you can imagine (from both sides). Who seriously thinks Canberra can run health systems as opposed to health policy.
Corin, if the primary was taking control of the party and being right, he’s not showing much sign of tacking towards the centre in the main race. He’s quite extreme on everything; he’s got that baggage and any shift will look just as phony as his brief and pathetic attempt to portray himself as ‘always being an environmentalist’ or a supporter of the cause of women.
He’s going to need to watch his back, as well, because I am not so sure, as you, that all of the party is rallying behind him. Where did this leak come from, for instance?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-targets-welfare-payments-20100223-p0p5.html
I’m also disgusted with the idea that Howard has an official role with cricket. Hubby is already suggesting that cricket will have to be banned from our household until Howard gets the flick …
Howard this AM on ABC 2 described as valuable asset, he being a cricket tragic and clever politician. political MO division, dog whistling and fear mongering thrown out of Government and politics by his own electorate. Already stirrings from “trodden on” Kiwis.
-Political MO division, dog whistling and fear mongering thrown out of Government and politics by his own electorate. My comment.
All followed by V.T and her offsider and Kennedy in furious agreement that nobody would be unhappy with his appointment. Sheesh!
Howard is perfect to head the ICC. Nobody demonstrates the meaning of “eternity” better than he.
Luckily Merc, ICC in this case doesn’t stand for International Criminal Court …
Joe2, my guess is that you thought Howard was very right wing as well and he won 4 elections. I agree that Abbott is nearly unelectable, but i don’t think being conservative in itself is a bar from high office. My guess is that the next few months will be very competitive politically and you’ll find it hard to work out why. Look if the health reform is very centralising, he also should oppose it, both on substance and principle … I mean seriously does anyone actually think that Canberra is capable of running hospitals. Just look at Britain, they’ve just devolved responsibility away from the centre.
JH and the cricket – It’s a disaster. I turn on the radio and there is that nasal whine grinding out of the speakers again. I thought we had got rid of him. with the A.M. common taters on my favourite radio station being cricket tragics, I’m doomed to this torture for the next however many years.
..and of course Helen, now he’s in, they’ll *never* get a declaration out of him!
OTOH, being a reactionary and moronic sociopath ought to be …
“Look if the health reform is very centralising, he also should oppose it, both on substance and principle … I mean seriously does anyone actually think that Canberra is capable of running hospitals.”
The thing is, Corin, the opposition is out there on the airwaves, right now, belting the health care changes that have not even been released.
It just says two things- closed minds and negativity for the sake of it. If they get bounce for that, over the next few months, I will be sad for us all.
I’m sick to death of Teh Opposition.
And is it just me, or has anyone else noticed that whenever there’s footage of Tony Abbott arriving at a public forum these days, he’s developed this style where he enters the room in a slow moving fashion, almost like a dalek, with this self-satisfied expression as if to expect a standing ovation?
It’s enough to make you want to puke!
Little johnnie howard…can’t bowl, can’t bat, can’t field and too dishonest to be trusted to umpire or score. No wonder he was so good at sitting there just watching.
Possum’s tables are indeed fascinating. Not only is Rudd ahead on all the positive attributes and behind on all but one of the negative, but he is improving on many negative attributes (demanding, arrogant) while Abott is going downhill (narrow minded, too inflexible). All at the same time that the 2PP gap is narrowing. No idea what it all means though!
I’ve notice a few recent polls which have shown a slight downturn in the Greens’ measured vote. It would be premature to say that a trend is showing up, and there is nothing in particular that the Greens have done or not done which would account for such a trend if it did show up. However we Greens have noticed over the years that some of our vote comes from people who are basically left-wing Labor voters who cast a tactical first preference vote for the Greens for one of a number of reasons, and we have also noticed that some such people don’t quite understand how preferential voting works and don’t realise that a 1 Greens 2 Labor vote is as good as a 1 Labor vote in 2PP terms. It would not surprised if a media narrative of “Labor in trouble/Abbott surging/yadayadayada” would cause such people to shift their primary vote back to Labor.
Paul Norton
The Greens blocked action on climate change. If they had voted for the CPRS last time it went to the Senate, we’d have an ETS by now.
Not a good look, especially when most Green supporters (according to polls) wanted the ETS passed.
@38 – I think that’s right, Paul.
However, a 1 Greens 2 Labor vote isn’t always as good as a 1 Labor vote, if the Labor primary drops too far at the same time as the Coalition primary takes off.
@34 – that’s right, joe2. Full frontal attack on something they don’t know the details of, yet.
Corin, it looks so far as if the gist of the thing is a purchaser/provider arrangement where the Commonwealth funds all hospital treatment through payment for individual cases. The AMA welcomed it. It’s not a federal takeover, and actually the opposite of centralisation, I’d have thought, as it would give individual hospitals more discretion about the allocation of funds.
Which ETS package, mehitabel? Any links to poll results? I would have thought that Green supporters would have been generally against the heavily compromised final Labor/Turnbull deal.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/30/the-monster-nielsen-poll/
Joe2 #42, it’s also worth bearing in mind that the Australian Conservation Foundation, which had previously supported the Government’s CPRS despite numerous criticisms, withdrew that support after Labor accepted the Liberal amendments.
“Rudd’s remarks are part of a set piece of political manoeuvring aiming to draw a line in the sand, and to establish a contrast between the government’s new policy announcements (the national curriculum and health) and the opposition’s negativity.”
Good post Mark. Speaking of Health:
When in a public hospital for a week recently I spoke in-depth to a number of nurses & other staff. Wrote down some observations too.
The main concerns seemed to surround funding. More money in the system was a major concern. Seems to go w/out saying really.
Interestingly, “morale” came up a fair bit. Certainly better wages & conditions were a concern…but interestingly many nurses felt they were not being treated appropriately by some higher-ups & administrators. Not listened to enuff. And not complimented enuff on the job they were doing…a general lack of appreciation. And yet they felt criticisms were doled out, sometimes nitpicking things, on a constant basis.
Motivation & inspiration & hope & sense of achievement & self-worth seemed to be missing in some. And yet many I found to be fairly hard-working, knowledgeable & compassionate once ya got to know them.
Furthermore, there was an ongoing concern & frustration about a lack of process & planning that enabled elderly & other chronic patients to be moved elsewhere in order to free up wards. I found myself spending a few days w/ a number of chronically ill patients…and even though I appreciated their companionship and learnt much about their interesting lives…it did on occasion depress me deeply…and I began to wonder why a number of media outlets & politicians had demeaned Julia Gillard over her Medicare Gold proposal considering it would’ve dealt w/ some of this problem.
Safety was also a paramount issue for the nurses…one was in a court battle related to being physically assaulted/harmed by a patient.
Lastly, I felt that HYGIENE must be a higher priority. More cleaners around the clock…particularly cleaning shared toilet & showering facilities. And more glove wearing & effective disposal of…& using appropriate cleaning chemicals & more than one cloth in said facilities.
BTW, considering the cost of watching TV in hospital I think there could be wider choice, including ABC 2. Foxtel seems to do well out of it.
And one added suggestion related to QLD hospitals. My wife’s family are based in Beaudesert. For some time now they have been critical of the lack of appropriate use of the Beaudesert hospital…and the forcing of pregnant women to Logan hospital. These are swing voters, primarily Nat voters who swung to Fed Labor last election. This is an important issue for them…and has created ongoing frustration & increasing hostility towards Labor of all kinds.
Worth thinking about.
N’
Thanks Mark and yep Paul.
It is still pretty tricky to come any conclusions from those figures whether the Green stand in the Senate has damaged them. You would need a much more direct question to find out.
Possum’s PollyTics takes an in-depth look at the Greens’ poll figures.
This Coalition argument – how predictable – that if the government can’t install batts how can they run the health system is easily dealt with. The problem with the health system is precisely because it is not connected with the communities it serves. Governments do certain things well – like providing a regulatory function, setting policy priorities and providing funding. This change is about more power in the hands of the health professionals and administers who deliver the services. This is quite logical, quite sensible and the Opposition is doing a disservice to people by blindly opposing it like they have done everything else.
Jesus, mehitabel @ 39, I thought we’d explained that very carefully to you last time you raised it.
I’m not going through it again, as it would be a waste of keystrokes.
Don’t quite know where else to make a comment about Abbott. First he’s nearly wiped out by a semi, now his Aboriginal guide has apparently abandoned him in the desert. Is God trying to give him a message?
Paul@50, maybe to go along with a “Rudd unwhacked” thread we need a “Whacky Abbott” thread. There is just no stopping action man except when his quad bike breaks down.
I just couldn’t vote for any contender who needed to leave his machine behind in the desert because has no fixing skills. Pathetic, Tony.
My sympathies are with the Aboriginal guide, Paul – I reckon I would’ve abandoned the bastard too.
Errm, did I miss something?
Did the guide actually show Abbott the sacred sites?
Or did he accidentally return so late that they had to turn back without seeing them?
Wot a bugger, eh? Hope the journos didn’t notice?
Pity the government didn’t hold off on the release of the new hospital policies and hammer the negativity of the Libs denouncing the policy before they know anything about it. The government really needs to focus voters’ attention on their negativity and paucity of policies; ABC should be the mantra.
Jane@54 I am not sure the government needs to bother. The negativity of the Libs is coming through loud and clear. No point risking looking boringly argumentative when the other mob are sewing up their image all by themselves.
Indeed. Thought Joe Hockey illustrated this excellently on Insiders this morning. A bit of a harpy, with the unmistakeable subtext of ‘When we get in we’re going to be real bastards.”
Rudd ain’t unwhacked yet, though. I’m beginning to wonder if the apparent (and I say apparent because I don’t really trust much MSM political analysis)logjam being caused by his control freakedness might not soon start to cause real difficulties, with the Parliamentary Labor Party as well as among the media hacks.
Well the hacks seem most excited at what they perceive to be growing conflict and disunity in Labor ranks. It might just be that it is more about working at different message levels for different audiences. We are abject in our apology, for some stuff, and we have done some really good things.
The logjam may well be turned into an election year bountiful harvest, Paul.
Hope so. I could do with another pension rise to cover the increase in electricity bills next July here in NSW.
30 bucks due in March, Paul, for starters.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/pensioners-to-get-more-20100306-ppse.html
joe2 @55, from what I hear from punters where I live, admittedly a Libtard stronghold, they’re swallowing Abbott’s crap whole.
Mind you, few of them are actually very politically savvy, just repeating Libtard mantras endlessly. And it’s not going to make that much difference what they think about the government, because they’re rusted on and still worship at the Rodent altar.
However, it wouldn’t hurt “Howard’s Wankers” to have their ladders plonked on wobbly ground and experience a nasty fall.
Well, that’s good news, joe2.