… and Galaxy agrees (but see Possum on preference allocations). As The Poll Bludger says:
According to taste, the two taken together show Labor either staunching the flow or failing to turn the tide.
The primaries in Newspoll (37-43-12 to Labor, the Coalition and The Greens) suggest that the last one was marred by sampling error.
Both polls are the first to be taken after the Budget, though I doubt anyone was expecting any ‘bounce’ (I wasn’t, at any rate). The story is basically what we’ve been saying – continued weakness in Kevin Rudd’s ratings, but no evidence of any great enthusiasm for Tony Abbott or the Coalition.
Elsewhere: More from Possum, including details and graphs.
Update: Mark Davis in The National Times on the myth of the budget bounce.
Update: And Essential joins the chorus, also coming in with a 50-50 2PP (ALP on 38% to the Coalition’s 43% on primaries).
Update: Possum with the detail of Esssential.
Update: Mark Davis in The National Times on the myth of the budget bounce.
Update: Mark Davis in The National Times on the myth of the budget bounce.
The only polling that counts is specific marginal seat polling. It really doesn’t matter what happens anywhere else.
The only polling that counts is specific marginal seat polling. It really doesn’t matter what happens anywhere else.
So voters ignore budgets. Financial markets ignore budgets. The only people who pay them much attention are the hordes of media people who descend on Canberra for the lock-up, kill hundreds of trees with their verbiage and go and get pissed at the Holy Grail ever year.
So voters ignore budgets. Financial markets ignore budgets. The only people who pay them much attention are the hordes of media people who descend on Canberra for the lock-up, kill hundreds of trees with their verbiage and go and get pissed at the Holy Grail ever year.
I’m seeing a bit of a new narrative now of “well the ALP has handled the GFC OK during their stewardship….it’s safe now to go the protest vote.”
I’m seeing a bit of a new narrative now of “well the ALP has handled the GFC OK during their stewardship….it’s safe now to go the protest vote.”
The ALP did not handle the GFC well. They used it as an excuse to waste money on pet projects. They were reckless with our money in the extreme. It is bad enough that we are over taxed and that as a society and as individuals we suffer the associated dead weight costs. To add insult to the injury the government then goes and spends those tax dollars unwisely.
The ALP did not handle the GFC well. They used it as an excuse to waste money on pet projects. They were reckless with our money in the extreme. It is bad enough that we are over taxed and that as a society and as individuals we suffer the associated dead weight costs. To add insult to the injury the government then goes and spends those tax dollars unwisely.
TerjeP at 5: Spare us your continuing regurgitation of the nonsense on the Liberal Democratic blog. Tp paraphrase Tony Abbott it’s a great big tax on our time.
TerjeP at 5: Spare us your continuing regurgitation of the nonsense on the Liberal Democratic blog. Tp paraphrase Tony Abbott it’s a great big tax on our time.
And boring.
And boring.
I really start to wonder about the so called ability of the Shanahans and Milnes, Gloria Jones and Bolts Hadley, not to mention the daily onslaughts of Susan Boyle and Melissa Etheridge on Radio National, to actually influence votes. The whole lot of them have been singing the same song for FOUR FLOCKING YEARS and nothing they said or did could change the stratospheric ALP polling. And now the polls change downwards for Rudd for a while because of some bad news that the government wanted to get out of the way. It now appears that it may be starting to creep back Labors way – ref William Bowe’s analysis of the Essential rolling poll, which is still at 50/50. That result would have to have some part of the bad polling from two weeks ago, wouldn’t it?
Lets wait and see what happens when Abbott has to stand up in front the nation and explain his “policies” to the people, without the safety net of his nauseating cheer squad of press supporters. The last time he had to front – and that was really only at the press club – he was a catastrophic failure. Even if Murdoch’s goons sugar coat his upcoming disasters during the campaign, people will still see through it. Not everyone is an idiot and the people likely to be influenced by what a hate sheet like the Telegraph has to say are already in the Abbott camp.
I really start to wonder about the so called ability of the Shanahans and Milnes, Gloria Jones and Bolts Hadley, not to mention the daily onslaughts of Susan Boyle and Melissa Etheridge on Radio National, to actually influence votes. The whole lot of them have been singing the same song for FOUR FLOCKING YEARS and nothing they said or did could change the stratospheric ALP polling. And now the polls change downwards for Rudd for a while because of some bad news that the government wanted to get out of the way. It now appears that it may be starting to creep back Labors way – ref William Bowe’s analysis of the Essential rolling poll, which is still at 50/50. That result would have to have some part of the bad polling from two weeks ago, wouldn’t it?
Lets wait and see what happens when Abbott has to stand up in front the nation and explain his “policies” to the people, without the safety net of his nauseating cheer squad of press supporters. The last time he had to front – and that was really only at the press club – he was a catastrophic failure. Even if Murdoch’s goons sugar coat his upcoming disasters during the campaign, people will still see through it. Not everyone is an idiot and the people likely to be influenced by what a hate sheet like the Telegraph has to say are already in the Abbott camp.
Terje says:
The IMF says otherwise. Unemployment peaked lower than everywhere else in the OECD. There was no significant inflation. Nor wave of mortgage sales, No banks fell. No money is tied up in bank bailouts. The guarantee has been easued. It now seems surpluses will appear in Federal budgets in 2012-13.
It wasn’t a waste if it worked principally as intended, and it did.
Wrong. We are comparatively lightly taxed, especially given the particular difficulties we have here. Of course, if one thinks any tax is too much, as you sometimes imply … this is a statement of principle rather than a summary of observable reality.
Terje says:
The IMF says otherwise. Unemployment peaked lower than everywhere else in the OECD. There was no significant inflation. Nor wave of mortgage sales, No banks fell. No money is tied up in bank bailouts. The guarantee has been easued. It now seems surpluses will appear in Federal budgets in 2012-13.
It wasn’t a waste if it worked principally as intended, and it did.
Wrong. We are comparatively lightly taxed, especially given the particular difficulties we have here. Of course, if one thinks any tax is too much, as you sometimes imply … this is a statement of principle rather than a summary of observable reality.
Update: And Essential joins the chorus, also coming in with a 50-50 2PP (ALP on 38% to the Coalition’s 43% on primaries).
Update: And Essential joins the chorus, also coming in with a 50-50 2PP (ALP on 38% to the Coalition’s 43% on primaries).
Update: Possum with the detail of Esssential.
Update: Possum with the detail of Esssential.
The Government’s welfare quarantining in NT (which they plan to roll out nationwide for all those on unemployment & single parenting benefits) continues to blow up in their face:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/05/17/income-management-isnt-working-and-macklins-twisting-the-truth/
The Government’s welfare quarantining in NT (which they plan to roll out nationwide for all those on unemployment & single parenting benefits) continues to blow up in their face:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/05/17/income-management-isnt-working-and-macklins-twisting-the-truth/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/17/2901913.htm?section=justin
A professor of accounting at Sydney University, Bob Walker, says Mr Abbott’s figures are out by about 25 per cent.
This isn’t going to help. The sums are hardly in the hard class.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/17/2901913.htm?section=justin
A professor of accounting at Sydney University, Bob Walker, says Mr Abbott’s figures are out by about 25 per cent.
This isn’t going to help. The sums are hardly in the hard class.
Well O’Brien had a pretty good go at Abbott tonight and skewered him someone who can’t be trusted. Abbott stuttered, stammered and sounded unconvincing. This is obviously one of the things Labor has to do, i.e. point out his inconsistencies and backflips.
Well O’Brien had a pretty good go at Abbott tonight and skewered him someone who can’t be trusted. Abbott stuttered, stammered and sounded unconvincing. This is obviously one of the things Labor has to do, i.e. point out his inconsistencies and backflips.
Yes TerjeP @ 5 … how irresponsible of the Labor government to spend us away from the financial nightmare that engulfed the rest of the planet. And how terrible of the same government to spend tax revenue on health and education. Are you Right wing? Or just stupid …
Yes TerjeP @ 5 … how irresponsible of the Labor government to spend us away from the financial nightmare that engulfed the rest of the planet. And how terrible of the same government to spend tax revenue on health and education. Are you Right wing? Or just stupid …
@15 – please don’t disparage other commenters, Agnes, and please refer to the comments policy.
@15 – please don’t disparage other commenters, Agnes, and please refer to the comments policy.
Agnes
Terje has stood as a candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party, an organisation sympathetic to American Libertarian ideas.
Strictly speaking, this puts him on the economic right, though calling him “a right winger” is probably misleading as he is not a moralistic or religious conservative.
Agnes
Terje has stood as a candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party, an organisation sympathetic to American Libertarian ideas.
Strictly speaking, this puts him on the economic right, though calling him “a right winger” is probably misleading as he is not a moralistic or religious conservative.
Again, please note the comments policy:
… is one thing not allowed.
If Terje wants to place his comments in the context of his political views, that’s his choice, but if not, then it would be preferable if his arguments were engaged with on their merits.
Again, please note the comments policy:
… is one thing not allowed.
If Terje wants to place his comments in the context of his political views, that’s his choice, but if not, then it would be preferable if his arguments were engaged with on their merits.