This has to be a first:
THE economic case for the Brumby government’s top transport project is in tatters, with its own figures revealing benefits barely a third of its multibillion-dollar price tag.
The WestLink freeway, a six-lane road under Footscray and through Sunshine West, was estimated to cost $3.5 billion when the state asked Canberra to fund it in October 2008.
But a confidential submission to the Rudd government reveals estimated economic benefits that would flow from building the freeway of just $1.14 billion. This included travel-time savings of $700 million and a reduction in crash costs of $11 million.
Canberra knocked back funding despite Victoria declaring last year the freeway was its ”number one priority project” for federal funding. The Age understands a core reason was the poor economic return on building the road.
By contrast, the rail link currently under construction in Melbourne’s outer west apparently offers a net economic benefit.
John Brumby wants to build the road anyway, of course, but it’s interesting that, for once, the economic models that continually justify new roads seem to have reached their limit.
Is $3.5B a lot for a road? I guess drilling a massive tunnel must be pretty expensive. Maybe that’s where the “economic models … reached their limit”.
Is $3.5B a lot for a road? I guess drilling a massive tunnel must be pretty expensive. Maybe that’s where the “economic models … reached their limit”.
No road’s worth that much. And not just because induced demand means any freeway project is self-defeating. Building hugely expensive infrastructure now that will be obsolete post-oil peak is a mug’s game, and we’re paying. But denial is cheap.
No road’s worth that much. And not just because induced demand means any freeway project is self-defeating. Building hugely expensive infrastructure now that will be obsolete post-oil peak is a mug’s game, and we’re paying. But denial is cheap.
I don’t understand how economic modelling could hope to account for the complex web of effects that would occur due to the road. Induced traffic? Shifting land-use patterns? Increased sprawl? Increased infrastructure costs for that sprawl? Increased pollution? Decreased return on “competing” infrastructure (the world of public transport, walking, cycling, high-densities around the CBD etc.)?
You could have only the roughest of stabs at accounting for all those things. But narrowing things down to the easily countable is no better.
And how does a freeway “reduce crash costs”? It might reduce them within the small area that the freeway covers, but it increases the overall value of the road network for drivers of cars, and therefore increases driving throughout the network, which will lead to more crashes overall. To reduce crash costs you need to shift travel from driving to safer modes such as public transport, walking and cycling.
But that’s not part of their model either.
I don’t understand how economic modelling could hope to account for the complex web of effects that would occur due to the road. Induced traffic? Shifting land-use patterns? Increased sprawl? Increased infrastructure costs for that sprawl? Increased pollution? Decreased return on “competing” infrastructure (the world of public transport, walking, cycling, high-densities around the CBD etc.)?
You could have only the roughest of stabs at accounting for all those things. But narrowing things down to the easily countable is no better.
And how does a freeway “reduce crash costs”? It might reduce them within the small area that the freeway covers, but it increases the overall value of the road network for drivers of cars, and therefore increases driving throughout the network, which will lead to more crashes overall. To reduce crash costs you need to shift travel from driving to safer modes such as public transport, walking and cycling.
But that’s not part of their model either.
Curse economic rationalism!!1!
Curse economic rationalism!!1!
Well I guess this is one thing we can give Rudd a tick for. For years, road builders have only had to put their hand out to get funded.
It really is time a more holistic and utility based model for this stuff was developed and applied. If this is a step in that direction, then great.
Now … will they apply the same standards to World Cup bids and Grand Prix, and those submarine projects?
I’m not going to risk holding my breath to find out.
Well I guess this is one thing we can give Rudd a tick for. For years, road builders have only had to put their hand out to get funded.
It really is time a more holistic and utility based model for this stuff was developed and applied. If this is a step in that direction, then great.
Now … will they apply the same standards to World Cup bids and Grand Prix, and those submarine projects?
I’m not going to risk holding my breath to find out.
Not surprising really for a road from nowhere to nowhere…
Of course the word is that within Vicroads they are calling this stage 1 and would love to build a tunnel under the inner north to the Eastern freeway.
Not surprising really for a road from nowhere to nowhere…
Of course the word is that within Vicroads they are calling this stage 1 and would love to build a tunnel under the inner north to the Eastern freeway.
I’m amazed they didn’t pull their usual trick of quoting X and blowing out by an additional 200% (unless the $3b was already the undervalued quote)
(My cynicism arises from the ACT’s Gininderra Drive – light rail was quoted at $120mil, road came in at $90mill which was known to be a joke from the start – it trippled)
I’m amazed they didn’t pull their usual trick of quoting X and blowing out by an additional 200% (unless the $3b was already the undervalued quote)
(My cynicism arises from the ACT’s Gininderra Drive – light rail was quoted at $120mil, road came in at $90mill which was known to be a joke from the start – it trippled)
And just to make my point above …
Chris Berg at The Drum
Yes I know he’s IPA, but in this case, he is probably pretty right.
And just to make my point above …
Chris Berg at The Drum
Yes I know he’s IPA, but in this case, he is probably pretty right.
In Melbourne’s west we are absolutely gagging for more public transport. the rail system is practically at a standstill. The Vic government simply will not contemplate extending rail lines or spending money on more infrastructure and trains. Melbourne residents are voting with their feet by packing onto the trains morning and evening, you don’t even need a strap as it’s impossible to fall in such a tightly jammed crowd. Yet the State government is all about roads, roads, roads which usually means more tollways these days.
I really fear for the situation with the public transport and I’m wondering whether there will be some kind of massive failure across the board.
Transport expert, Paul Mees, was punished by Melbourne University for daring to criticise the Vic Government’s woeful handling of its public transport
http://www.academicfreedom.com.au/debate/debate-charter-required/debate-paul-mees/
It appears to me that the large construction companies, the RACV and the construction unions have an unhealthy influence on the Victorian government. A bit like Gunn’s in Tasmania only not just one company.
In Melbourne’s west we are absolutely gagging for more public transport. the rail system is practically at a standstill. The Vic government simply will not contemplate extending rail lines or spending money on more infrastructure and trains. Melbourne residents are voting with their feet by packing onto the trains morning and evening, you don’t even need a strap as it’s impossible to fall in such a tightly jammed crowd. Yet the State government is all about roads, roads, roads which usually means more tollways these days.
I really fear for the situation with the public transport and I’m wondering whether there will be some kind of massive failure across the board.
Transport expert, Paul Mees, was punished by Melbourne University for daring to criticise the Vic Government’s woeful handling of its public transport
http://www.academicfreedom.com.au/debate/debate-charter-required/debate-paul-mees/
It appears to me that the large construction companies, the RACV and the construction unions have an unhealthy influence on the Victorian government. A bit like Gunn’s in Tasmania only not just one company.
…Oh, and, now that the infrastructure has been run down to pretty much third world conditions, it’s not too hard to imagine nasty accidents, that is they’ve already started to happen. Fairly minor so far but when our train drivers are fanging it between North Melbourne and Footscray, trying desperately to make up time, with trains packed to the rafters, the side to side movement is so extreme and the people in the carriages are adding to the movement by being thrown around themselves. I’m finding it hard not to imagine a train derailing at some stage.
…Oh, and, now that the infrastructure has been run down to pretty much third world conditions, it’s not too hard to imagine nasty accidents, that is they’ve already started to happen. Fairly minor so far but when our train drivers are fanging it between North Melbourne and Footscray, trying desperately to make up time, with trains packed to the rafters, the side to side movement is so extreme and the people in the carriages are adding to the movement by being thrown around themselves. I’m finding it hard not to imagine a train derailing at some stage.
Fran @ 8, I have certain knowledge that Chris Berg is absolutely correct about a couple of the projects he mentions.
Fran @ 8, I have certain knowledge that Chris Berg is absolutely correct about a couple of the projects he mentions.
What they are not factoring in is the likely move to narrow track vehicles in the not to distant future. Cars that are narrow enough to travel two abreast in a single lane will make some of the money spent on roads and tunnels look a bit ridiculous.
What they are not factoring in is the likely move to narrow track vehicles in the not to distant future. Cars that are narrow enough to travel two abreast in a single lane will make some of the money spent on roads and tunnels look a bit ridiculous.
I’ve got one, John D, they’ve been around for years, they’re already hugely popular. Motorcycles aren’t for everybody though.
I’ve got one, John D, they’ve been around for years, they’re already hugely popular. Motorcycles aren’t for everybody though.
Sad to see Brumby forging on regardless, with handwaving and bullshit. He says “If you look at all of these big projects … they don’t come up with big benefit-cost ratios”. The ratio isn’t not-big, it’s negative!
“Now … will they apply the same standards to World Cup bids and Grand Prix, and those submarine projects?”
Amen to that, sister!
Sad to see Brumby forging on regardless, with handwaving and bullshit. He says “If you look at all of these big projects … they don’t come up with big benefit-cost ratios”. The ratio isn’t not-big, it’s negative!
“Now … will they apply the same standards to World Cup bids and Grand Prix, and those submarine projects?”
Amen to that, sister!
“the economic models that continually justify new roads seem to have reached their limit.”
Not necessarily. It could just be that this particular road is an economic dud.
“The ratio isn’t not-big, it’s negative!”
It can’t be negative. That is not mathematically possible.
“the economic models that continually justify new roads seem to have reached their limit.”
Not necessarily. It could just be that this particular road is an economic dud.
“The ratio isn’t not-big, it’s negative!”
It can’t be negative. That is not mathematically possible.
Check it again, Sam.
Check it again, Sam.
Sam’s right, it won’t be negative, but it will be (considerably) less than 1.
Sam’s right, it won’t be negative, but it will be (considerably) less than 1.
Why can’t the economic benefit be less than zero, then?
Why can’t the economic benefit be less than zero, then?
The road tunnel will be loved by the cyclists and horse and cart drivers, because by the time it is completed either:
a) The World is so far into peak oil that oil prices are so high that communting by car will be a luxury.
b) The World stops lending Australia the money to buy oil (and everything else of course).
Australia hit its own peak oil in 2000, when we were 100% self suffcient. Since then we have dropped to south of 60% and dropping at around 3-4% per year… and we import the rest with borrowed money.
Never mind we can always copy some 3rd world countries to jam more people onto trams and trains … add running boards along the side that people can hang onto and put rooof racks on top that we can climb into (just watch the power lines).
Australian transport policy (State and Federal) is totally captured by road builders, road financers and road transport companies and has been for a long time. Anyone remember under Hawke when Peter Ables was the REAL transport minister?
This is not going to change soon, the vested interests are just too strong and entrenched (you could say the same for energy policy, anything but coal is not going to get up, except for some token stuff).
Not until a real catastrophe of course … but we will pay for that when it happens, not them.
The road tunnel will be loved by the cyclists and horse and cart drivers, because by the time it is completed either:
a) The World is so far into peak oil that oil prices are so high that communting by car will be a luxury.
b) The World stops lending Australia the money to buy oil (and everything else of course).
Australia hit its own peak oil in 2000, when we were 100% self suffcient. Since then we have dropped to south of 60% and dropping at around 3-4% per year… and we import the rest with borrowed money.
Never mind we can always copy some 3rd world countries to jam more people onto trams and trains … add running boards along the side that people can hang onto and put rooof racks on top that we can climb into (just watch the power lines).
Australian transport policy (State and Federal) is totally captured by road builders, road financers and road transport companies and has been for a long time. Anyone remember under Hawke when Peter Ables was the REAL transport minister?
This is not going to change soon, the vested interests are just too strong and entrenched (you could say the same for energy policy, anything but coal is not going to get up, except for some token stuff).
Not until a real catastrophe of course … but we will pay for that when it happens, not them.
I can remember the Kennett government digging up Footscray Road and pulling down Grimes St bridge to get people to use Westgate and Bolte bridges and build Jihad Stadium
I can remember the Kennett government digging up Footscray Road and pulling down Grimes St bridge to get people to use Westgate and Bolte bridges and build Jihad Stadium
That’s how it works. The Govt makes a secret deal giving a financial/road construction/etc company a Govt guaranteed monopoly, so they can extract rentier profits for ages. The monopoly is protected by the full force of the Govt .. and if you try and object both the Govt and private company security forces will go for you (ah lah the ‘intelligence’ sharing between the desal plant builders, operators and the Vic Govt over protesters .. plus the Bay dredging issues as well).
The poltical party (whatever it is) gets lots of campaign finance, the senior party guys get great jobs after they leave politics (e.g. Carr) ..we pay the bills.
Not quite Mussolini .. at least he made the trains run on time. These clowns are not that professional .. except at getting our money into their hands.
That’s how it works. The Govt makes a secret deal giving a financial/road construction/etc company a Govt guaranteed monopoly, so they can extract rentier profits for ages. The monopoly is protected by the full force of the Govt .. and if you try and object both the Govt and private company security forces will go for you (ah lah the ‘intelligence’ sharing between the desal plant builders, operators and the Vic Govt over protesters .. plus the Bay dredging issues as well).
The poltical party (whatever it is) gets lots of campaign finance, the senior party guys get great jobs after they leave politics (e.g. Carr) ..we pay the bills.
Not quite Mussolini .. at least he made the trains run on time. These clowns are not that professional .. except at getting our money into their hands.
I have certain knowledge that the clem7 tunnel also had a cost-benefit ratio far below 1 until some non-standard items were included in the benefit column, pushing it up to just above 1.
The road lobby has near complete control of transport policy in this country, but maybe this event indicates that there is a concerted effort afoot to break with the past? Shouldn’t we be praising some evidence of evidence-based policy by the Rudd govt?
I have certain knowledge that the clem7 tunnel also had a cost-benefit ratio far below 1 until some non-standard items were included in the benefit column, pushing it up to just above 1.
The road lobby has near complete control of transport policy in this country, but maybe this event indicates that there is a concerted effort afoot to break with the past? Shouldn’t we be praising some evidence of evidence-based policy by the Rudd govt?
Leighton Holdings, Transfield, John Holland….these gigantic engineering concerns are very much the new, unelected technocracy holding most State governments in thrall.
The percentage of State budgets going to these various firms is/would be staggering: you would be hard-pressed to get the actual data.
They don’t just build tunnels and motorways; Transfield, for example, has been (and may currently be) the head contractor for NSW Dept. of Housing property maintenance.
Leighton Holdings, Transfield, John Holland….these gigantic engineering concerns are very much the new, unelected technocracy holding most State governments in thrall.
The percentage of State budgets going to these various firms is/would be staggering: you would be hard-pressed to get the actual data.
They don’t just build tunnels and motorways; Transfield, for example, has been (and may currently be) the head contractor for NSW Dept. of Housing property maintenance.
Relax. Five minutes after the election he’ll say the freeway will now be a tollway. Form.
Relax. Five minutes after the election he’ll say the freeway will now be a tollway. Form.
Jesus, will somebody declare the GREAT ROAD GOD dead, so we can ensure its still possibly move from a to b in about 5 years in any capital city.
Here’s a planning news flash: punching a new belt hole doesn’t make you thin.
The ONLY way to improve car travel times now is to get people off the roads.
This can only be done by
a. improving public transport, combined (or not) with
b. a congestion tax.
Jesus, will somebody declare the GREAT ROAD GOD dead, so we can ensure its still possibly move from a to b in about 5 years in any capital city.
Here’s a planning news flash: punching a new belt hole doesn’t make you thin.
The ONLY way to improve car travel times now is to get people off the roads.
This can only be done by
a. improving public transport, combined (or not) with
b. a congestion tax.
If infrastructure needed to be cost effective we would still be shitting in a tin in the back yard in the dark. Not that I support this proposal.
If infrastructure needed to be cost effective we would still be shitting in a tin in the back yard in the dark. Not that I support this proposal.
Zorronsky, the problem with your argument is that new rail links are cost-effective. They have cost-benefit ratios of in excess of 1, meaning that they return more than they cost. The road in question returned a dollar of value for every three.
Zorronsky, the problem with your argument is that new rail links are cost-effective. They have cost-benefit ratios of in excess of 1, meaning that they return more than they cost. The road in question returned a dollar of value for every three.
Alister I’d love to see rail used throughout for freight and commuters, but that doesn’t just apply to cities of millions of people. I wonder why kennet thought we’d save so much when he closed most of the rail in Vic?
Alister I’d love to see rail used throughout for freight and commuters, but that doesn’t just apply to cities of millions of people. I wonder why kennet thought we’d save so much when he closed most of the rail in Vic?
Brumby would be building the road for voters like me – well, not if it was a toll road, we don’t have such an abomination in Perth.
I gave up on public transport years ago for the reason Helen mentioned: inhumanely overcrowded. People may not be voting with their feet by using public transport, they just can’t afford to use a car for commuting. I thought I couldn’t either, but then I decided I would rather eat less and somehow pay to rent a CBD space. ALP or Libs, good times or bad, public transport at peak times is a lousy experience you can do without.
As a car commuter I found that the time I saved meant that I could get to the beach each morning for a swim, even in winter. So voters like me will think ‘stuff the economic case for roads – this is a lifestyle issue’.
Another thing I found was that it isn’t true that you can’t beat congestion by building more roads, you can. The most congested part of my journey was to cross the Narrows Bridge into the CBD. The previous Liberal government ‘duplicated’ the Bridge and even now, 10 years later, there’s hardly any congestion there – and that’s in a bigger Perth with more cars.
I’m hoping for a government that will build another bridge across the river, it’s ridiculous to have one bridge in Perth and then not another one ’till you get to Fremantle.
Brumby would be building the road for voters like me – well, not if it was a toll road, we don’t have such an abomination in Perth.
I gave up on public transport years ago for the reason Helen mentioned: inhumanely overcrowded. People may not be voting with their feet by using public transport, they just can’t afford to use a car for commuting. I thought I couldn’t either, but then I decided I would rather eat less and somehow pay to rent a CBD space. ALP or Libs, good times or bad, public transport at peak times is a lousy experience you can do without.
As a car commuter I found that the time I saved meant that I could get to the beach each morning for a swim, even in winter. So voters like me will think ‘stuff the economic case for roads – this is a lifestyle issue’.
Another thing I found was that it isn’t true that you can’t beat congestion by building more roads, you can. The most congested part of my journey was to cross the Narrows Bridge into the CBD. The previous Liberal government ‘duplicated’ the Bridge and even now, 10 years later, there’s hardly any congestion there – and that’s in a bigger Perth with more cars.
I’m hoping for a government that will build another bridge across the river, it’s ridiculous to have one bridge in Perth and then not another one ’till you get to Fremantle.
85% of Melburnians have to drive to their closest railway station to catch a train, which will be interesting when peak oil effects fuel prices.
85% of Melburnians have to drive to their closest railway station to catch a train, which will be interesting when peak oil effects fuel prices.
In Brisbane it is cheaper for me to take my car out of the garage and drive instead of catching public transport. Worse still I will normally get to where I am going to by car.
Like Russel @38 I found driving to work in the city gave me about 3/4 hr extra time at home compared with public transport. The thing I really liked about public transport was that I could veg out.
In Brisbane it is cheaper for me to take my car out of the garage and drive instead of catching public transport. Worse still I will normally get to where I am going to by car.
Like Russel @38 I found driving to work in the city gave me about 3/4 hr extra time at home compared with public transport. The thing I really liked about public transport was that I could veg out.
I voted with my feet last year – from driving. It was increasingly driving me round the twist as the roads get more and more crowded. Admittedly I got a job closer to where I live – now half hour by public transport instead of 75 mins.
Take your pick: personally I prefer the schizos on the train to the psychos on the road.
I voted with my feet last year – from driving. It was increasingly driving me round the twist as the roads get more and more crowded. Admittedly I got a job closer to where I live – now half hour by public transport instead of 75 mins.
Take your pick: personally I prefer the schizos on the train to the psychos on the road.
Russell at 28:
Well, the Swan River is wide, not like the Brisbane or Yarra… the only point between Perth and Freo it’s possible to bridge is between Bicton (Point Walter) and Dalkeith (Point Resolution), and the people who live there are too rich and important to have their houses bulldozed. There was a plan in the 60′s or 70′s for such a bridge connecting some kind of westerns suburbs freeway on the north (heading up to the mess of roads near Stirling Station) with Stock Rd in the south, creating a new N-S arterial, but Charles Court would’ve had a freeway put through his yard so nuh uh. There’s actualy quite a few freeways / highways from the 60′s that never got built and eventually got struck off the plans… the Freo Eastern Bypass is an example of one that stayed on the books for a while. Melbourne had the same kind of plans… there’s a map on Wikipedia somewhere showing the massive network of them that would’ve been built under Bolte etc.
Russell at 28:
Well, the Swan River is wide, not like the Brisbane or Yarra… the only point between Perth and Freo it’s possible to bridge is between Bicton (Point Walter) and Dalkeith (Point Resolution), and the people who live there are too rich and important to have their houses bulldozed. There was a plan in the 60′s or 70′s for such a bridge connecting some kind of westerns suburbs freeway on the north (heading up to the mess of roads near Stirling Station) with Stock Rd in the south, creating a new N-S arterial, but Charles Court would’ve had a freeway put through his yard so nuh uh. There’s actualy quite a few freeways / highways from the 60′s that never got built and eventually got struck off the plans… the Freo Eastern Bypass is an example of one that stayed on the books for a while. Melbourne had the same kind of plans… there’s a map on Wikipedia somewhere showing the massive network of them that would’ve been built under Bolte etc.
BoP – the river is wide but it’s shallow, so not that expensive or difficult to bridge. The bridge could be a little longer and not go straight across – maybe it could connect somehwere near Tawarri and the traffic flow through to Hackett Drive, missing nearly all the houses in Dalkeith.
Yes, the Stock Road Bridge was in the Stephenson Plan, the plan Perth is based on, and the Libs wouldn’t have it in their backyards, so what’s the point of having a Labor Party?
Remember what happened a few years ago when that water main burst at the Narrows: complete gridlock in Perth for about 5 hours. There has to be another bridge.
BoP – the river is wide but it’s shallow, so not that expensive or difficult to bridge. The bridge could be a little longer and not go straight across – maybe it could connect somehwere near Tawarri and the traffic flow through to Hackett Drive, missing nearly all the houses in Dalkeith.
Yes, the Stock Road Bridge was in the Stephenson Plan, the plan Perth is based on, and the Libs wouldn’t have it in their backyards, so what’s the point of having a Labor Party?
Remember what happened a few years ago when that water main burst at the Narrows: complete gridlock in Perth for about 5 hours. There has to be another bridge.
If a society does not start planning and investing for a post peak oil society then it is doomed.
Let’s list the areas that have hit peak oil (some for decades):
Australia
Indonesia
Malaysia
Russia
Venezuala
Romania
Syria
Yeman
Egypt
North Sea (UK, Norway)
US
Mexico
etc, etc
In fact the world’s oil supply now depends on a few ME giant oil fields like Ghandahar in Saudi Arabia, which has been used now for over 50 years. When they peak (and some argue they already have plateaued) hello $200 a barrel oil … plus forever.
At current consumption current know reserves will be depleted in 29 years! And the rate of discovery of new reserves is far less than the rate of depletion of old reserves. Plus the new ones are technically difficult and very expensive to exploit.
$200 a barrel is about, according to some studies, where the car commuter, surburban lifestyle goes under ….ie our lifestyle.
Every $ now spent on major road systems (excepting where there are clear safety benefits of course) is a waste of valuable capital and time, time that is running out.
For Australia it has an extra dimension, a debtor country … that ever increases its debt and has zero chance of a current account surplus in any reasonable time, the question becomes ” how long will the rest of the world lend us money to buy oil”?
If a society does not start planning and investing for a post peak oil society then it is doomed.
Let’s list the areas that have hit peak oil (some for decades):
Australia
Indonesia
Malaysia
Russia
Venezuala
Romania
Syria
Yeman
Egypt
North Sea (UK, Norway)
US
Mexico
etc, etc
In fact the world’s oil supply now depends on a few ME giant oil fields like Ghandahar in Saudi Arabia, which has been used now for over 50 years. When they peak (and some argue they already have plateaued) hello $200 a barrel oil … plus forever.
At current consumption current know reserves will be depleted in 29 years! And the rate of discovery of new reserves is far less than the rate of depletion of old reserves. Plus the new ones are technically difficult and very expensive to exploit.
$200 a barrel is about, according to some studies, where the car commuter, surburban lifestyle goes under ….ie our lifestyle.
Every $ now spent on major road systems (excepting where there are clear safety benefits of course) is a waste of valuable capital and time, time that is running out.
For Australia it has an extra dimension, a debtor country … that ever increases its debt and has zero chance of a current account surplus in any reasonable time, the question becomes ” how long will the rest of the world lend us money to buy oil”?
If/when oil becomes really scarce we may switch to running our cars on nuclear generated electricity or somesuch, but how we would run our industrial agriculture would be more of a problem. I think we’ll be running our cars (or at least motor scooters) ’till the very end.
If/when oil becomes really scarce we may switch to running our cars on nuclear generated electricity or somesuch, but how we would run our industrial agriculture would be more of a problem. I think we’ll be running our cars (or at least motor scooters) ’till the very end.
I see that road funding knockback as a symptom of peak oil – as is our status as a debtor country and the wonderful work BP is doing in the Gulf of Mexico at the moment.
Roads, from this point, will probably get worse. Bitumen is expensive and getting more so (ever wonder why roads are getting the “chip sealed” treatment rather than the hotmix they were built with? It’s not just in your suburb. Next stop is gravel for suburbia).
Most unfortunately for me, the 23mm slicks on my bicycles are increasingly unsuitable for the roads, and my next commuter bike will have tyres on it that resemble something from the 1930s just for reliability.
I see that road funding knockback as a symptom of peak oil – as is our status as a debtor country and the wonderful work BP is doing in the Gulf of Mexico at the moment.
Roads, from this point, will probably get worse. Bitumen is expensive and getting more so (ever wonder why roads are getting the “chip sealed” treatment rather than the hotmix they were built with? It’s not just in your suburb. Next stop is gravel for suburbia).
Most unfortunately for me, the 23mm slicks on my bicycles are increasingly unsuitable for the roads, and my next commuter bike will have tyres on it that resemble something from the 1930s just for reliability.
It occurred to me that there might be one silver lining with all these freeways.
After Peak Oil, we will have ready strips of land on which to construct light rail + bike paths on either side + a narrower road for non bike vehicles, whatever they might be, without knocking down any more houses.
It occurred to me that there might be one silver lining with all these freeways.
After Peak Oil, we will have ready strips of land on which to construct light rail + bike paths on either side + a narrower road for non bike vehicles, whatever they might be, without knocking down any more houses.
I’m planning on buying a horse and cart Helen, and just clip-clopping around.
I’m planning on buying a horse and cart Helen, and just clip-clopping around.
I reckon I’ve still got a set of lug tyres for my bike (although the ones on it now aren’t exactly slicks), and they carried me through the Flinders Ranges on some pretty rough trackes a few years ago.
I reckon I’ve still got a set of lug tyres for my bike (although the ones on it now aren’t exactly slicks), and they carried me through the Flinders Ranges on some pretty rough trackes a few years ago.
I don’t think peak oil is a myth, but I think that it’s medium-term impact on transport is seriously overstated. There is a lot of low hanging fruit in car efficiency, you can buy a car that gets 4l/100km these days, or the same car for not much less money at 9l/100km. And with the average car turning over at 10 years of age, we could see a better than 50 percent reduction in just a decade. By then electric cars will be competitive. The only question is will we have enough electricity to make them go?
As for the road, well the west is crying out for transport infrastructure, but I don’t know why it’s so hard to build a train line.
I don’t think peak oil is a myth, but I think that it’s medium-term impact on transport is seriously overstated. There is a lot of low hanging fruit in car efficiency, you can buy a car that gets 4l/100km these days, or the same car for not much less money at 9l/100km. And with the average car turning over at 10 years of age, we could see a better than 50 percent reduction in just a decade. By then electric cars will be competitive. The only question is will we have enough electricity to make them go?
As for the road, well the west is crying out for transport infrastructure, but I don’t know why it’s so hard to build a train line.