By Kim on May 25, 2010
Dennis Shanahan:
The Rudd government, incredibly, has lost the fight over the RSPT. A Labor government has been unable to win popular support, or the policy argument, for lifting taxes on wealthy and prosperous mining companies…
Essential Research:
<img src="http://larvatusprodeo.net/files/2010/05/rspt1.png"
Posted in Media, Politics, Polls | Tagged Dennis Shanahan, Essential Research, Media, Polls, public opinion, resources rent, resources tax, rspt |
Kim « profile & posts archive
This author has written 1111 posts for Larvatus Prodeo.
The most interesting things that Possum quotes from that Essential Research survey, for my mind:
Okay, so support may have gone down by 9%, opposition may have gone up by 2%. I hope there isn’t a trend at work there, though of course PP says it was a different question. We’ll have to wait until this polling outfit asks the same question again in order to find out. Only then will the Shanahans have any meat to work with.
But 19% of Green voters oppose the miners tax? How, why? Unless those respondents actually think it (the RSPT) doesn’t go far enough I have to conclude that figure is good evidence for that party now occupying the ideological ground the Australian Democrats used to sit on.
I still think this policy is electoral gold.
The most interesting things that Possum quotes from that Essential Research survey, for my mind:
Okay, so support may have gone down by 9%, opposition may have gone up by 2%. I hope there isn’t a trend at work there, though of course PP says it was a different question. We’ll have to wait until this polling outfit asks the same question again in order to find out. Only then will the Shanahans have any meat to work with.
But 19% of Green voters oppose the miners tax? How, why? Unless those respondents actually think it (the RSPT) doesn’t go far enough I have to conclude that figure is good evidence for that party now occupying the ideological ground the Australian Democrats used to sit on.
I still think this policy is electoral gold.
Next we can expect Shanahan to be given a “guest spot” on ABC Radio to repeat this meme. The OO‘s chief political editor has become a semi-regular lately on their ABC.
Next we can expect Shanahan to be given a “guest spot” on ABC Radio to repeat this meme. The OO‘s chief political editor has become a semi-regular lately on their ABC.
I have heard some Greens oppose the tax because it encourages marginal mining to go ahead. Others don’t like the state taking downside risk.
I think the tax isn’t aggressive enough.
I have heard some Greens oppose the tax because it encourages marginal mining to go ahead. Others don’t like the state taking downside risk.
I think the tax isn’t aggressive enough.
The guy is a ratbag, a stooge and a borderline sociopath.
The guy is a ratbag, a stooge and a borderline sociopath.
Janet is not the only one who lives on her own planet. And it’s not the first time that Shamaham has spouted blatant counter-reality.
Janet is not the only one who lives on her own planet. And it’s not the first time that Shamaham has spouted blatant counter-reality.
Yes Fran and we all now know that when something doesn’t go far enough the greens vote against it.
Yes Fran and we all now know that when something doesn’t go far enough the greens vote against it.
#2 – you’re behind the times – he was already doing it on late night ABC last night.
#2 – you’re behind the times – he was already doing it on late night ABC last night.
Two points:
1. It’s not just Shanahan. Kerry O’Brien made a similar accusation interviewing Lindsay Tanner tonight.
2. The Greens’ vote is not ideologically homogenous, as I’ve said before. 10% of the electorate does not imply that all those voters have identical opinions to Greens MPs or activists. In addition, as a minor party, some votes are ‘parked’ with The Greens without much real adherence. So the finding doesn’t surprise me.
Two points:
1. It’s not just Shanahan. Kerry O’Brien made a similar accusation interviewing Lindsay Tanner tonight.
2. The Greens’ vote is not ideologically homogenous, as I’ve said before. 10% of the electorate does not imply that all those voters have identical opinions to Greens MPs or activists. In addition, as a minor party, some votes are ‘parked’ with The Greens without much real adherence. So the finding doesn’t surprise me.
I’m astonished! 43% approval, 36% disapproval and that represents losing the RSPT fight. Whoda thunk it? Let’s hope he never gets the nod to teach maths.
I’m astonished! 43% approval, 36% disapproval and that represents losing the RSPT fight. Whoda thunk it? Let’s hope he never gets the nod to teach maths.
Hmmm .. is there a Logie or Oscar award for “Stupidest Man on the Planet” ? Some of the OO’s finest would be shoe-ins for a gong.
Hmmm .. is there a Logie or Oscar award for “Stupidest Man on the Planet” ? Some of the OO’s finest would be shoe-ins for a gong.
In this case Zorronsky I agree the tax is supportable. It should go further, but it is better than nothing.
In this case Zorronsky I agree the tax is supportable. It should go further, but it is better than nothing.
“I still think this policy is electoral gold.”
It should have been electoral gold…Unfortunately, the government hasn’t handled the issue quite as well as it might have, and seemed underprepared for the onslaught from the mining sector….Reminds me a bit of the way they allowed the scare campaign against the ETS to gather momentum…There too the government started in a very strong position and then saw support for its policy shrink over time….I was also disappointed that they didn’t consult Garnaut, given his expertise on resource taxation. A few hours of meetings might have enabled the government to iron out some of the design wrinkles and put them in a stronger position in the debate.
“I still think this policy is electoral gold.”
It should have been electoral gold…Unfortunately, the government hasn’t handled the issue quite as well as it might have, and seemed underprepared for the onslaught from the mining sector….Reminds me a bit of the way they allowed the scare campaign against the ETS to gather momentum…There too the government started in a very strong position and then saw support for its policy shrink over time….I was also disappointed that they didn’t consult Garnaut, given his expertise on resource taxation. A few hours of meetings might have enabled the government to iron out some of the design wrinkles and put them in a stronger position in the debate.
It would not have mattered how they announced it, they were going to get in the kneck from the media, the miners and the association of arm chair experts who read everything they do now as “badly handled”.
In my opinion they are holding up well on this one despite the massive scare campaign.
It would not have mattered how they announced it, they were going to get in the kneck from the media, the miners and the association of arm chair experts who read everything they do now as “badly handled”.
In my opinion they are holding up well on this one despite the massive scare campaign.
I expect Tony Abbott will use this to become next prime minister.
Julie Bishop is unrelenting as she pushes the Liberal lies oops line.
I expect Tony Abbott will use this to become next prime minister.
Julie Bishop is unrelenting as she pushes the Liberal lies oops line.
I think that one of the problems with Swan is that he is a born complicator who likes to add little sweeteners. The end result is something that is hard to understand and easy to lie about.
would have been smarter to have gone for an identical deal to that which off shore oil and gas has learned wasn’t so bad after all. Don’t like the risk reduction bits. The tax could end up as a net revenue loser when the boom drops off.
An identical deal to the offshore one would have been harder for the miners and their friends to lie about.
I think that one of the problems with Swan is that he is a born complicator who likes to add little sweeteners. The end result is something that is hard to understand and easy to lie about.
would have been smarter to have gone for an identical deal to that which off shore oil and gas has learned wasn’t so bad after all. Don’t like the risk reduction bits. The tax could end up as a net revenue loser when the boom drops off.
An identical deal to the offshore one would have been harder for the miners and their friends to lie about.
@12
Why do you say they failed to see the mining industry’s campaign? Your statements re: the ETS seem to leave out the fact that support for the ETS started to erode at about the same time that it became clear that the developed world was facing a very uncertain economic future. Rudd’s belief that Copenhagen would be pivotal would have had a better chance of being realised had the US not been sent reeling be the collapse of Wall Street, remember several large and venerable banks went to the wall. The general climate of uncertainly was exploited by the denialists, and I’d hazard a guess that support for action on climate change will increase as the threat of financial ruin recedes (if it does) and the scientific news continues to point to a catastrophe.
In my opinion they should probably push the nationalistic line a little harder. The mining companies seek to maximise their profits by processing the raw materials offshore in third world countries where labour works cheaply in bad conditions. How do you think Tom Albanese and Marius Klopper would look uming and ahing their way to an acceptable answer on that one. Of course you need a half decent journalist to start asking the questions
@12
Why do you say they failed to see the mining industry’s campaign? Your statements re: the ETS seem to leave out the fact that support for the ETS started to erode at about the same time that it became clear that the developed world was facing a very uncertain economic future. Rudd’s belief that Copenhagen would be pivotal would have had a better chance of being realised had the US not been sent reeling be the collapse of Wall Street, remember several large and venerable banks went to the wall. The general climate of uncertainly was exploited by the denialists, and I’d hazard a guess that support for action on climate change will increase as the threat of financial ruin recedes (if it does) and the scientific news continues to point to a catastrophe.
In my opinion they should probably push the nationalistic line a little harder. The mining companies seek to maximise their profits by processing the raw materials offshore in third world countries where labour works cheaply in bad conditions. How do you think Tom Albanese and Marius Klopper would look uming and ahing their way to an acceptable answer on that one. Of course you need a half decent journalist to start asking the questions
And there’s the rub, patrickb @16.
And there’s the rub, patrickb @16.
The quote says that the government hasn’t been able to win popular support. The chart then shows that the government hasn’t won popular support. So where is the contradiction?
The quote says that the government hasn’t been able to win popular support. The chart then shows that the government hasn’t won popular support. So where is the contradiction?
What level of support do you call popular support TerjeP?
7% margin in favour not enough? Do they need 90%+?
And how does such a margin indicate that they have “lost the fight” as Shannahan argues? By that logic, Tzu lost the fight against Juda because Juda landed a couple of good hits – just before Tzu drove him headlong into the canvas.
What level of support do you call popular support TerjeP?
7% margin in favour not enough? Do they need 90%+?
And how does such a margin indicate that they have “lost the fight” as Shannahan argues? By that logic, Tzu lost the fight against Juda because Juda landed a couple of good hits – just before Tzu drove him headlong into the canvas.
Much happening on this front overnight to be very optimistic about including a letter of support from 20 prominent experts and Fraser quits the LP.because of the ratbag right.
Much happening on this front overnight to be very optimistic about including a letter of support from 20 prominent experts and Fraser quits the LP.because of the ratbag right.
Anyone wanting a laugh should listen to Barnaby Joyce and Tikki Fullarton on Lateline Business …
Comedy gold … at one point (and this is the second time I have heard him say this) he claimed that the Australian people were mining’s greatest benefactors. Finally, unwittingly, the truth outs.
In the midst of a shambling and incoherent performance, it surely was a highlight.
Anyone wanting a laugh should listen to Barnaby Joyce and Tikki Fullarton on Lateline Business …
Comedy gold … at one point (and this is the second time I have heard him say this) he claimed that the Australian people were mining’s greatest benefactors. Finally, unwittingly, the truth outs.
In the midst of a shambling and incoherent performance, it surely was a highlight.
Oh Terje, you dear sweet thing you. Does being so obtuse come naturally, or do you have to work at it?
At best, Shanners is calling the race before it’s over. At worst, he’s operating as a partisan propagandist. Either way, it don’t look good for his journalistic “credentials”, does it?
Oh, what the heck. Have it your way. Shanners understands public opinion because he owns it. He reminds me of no-one so much as Saddam’s last Press Secretary, ‘Comical Ali’, telling the news cameras there are no U.S. tanks in Baghdad…
Or, to comment in Shanners-speak…
Oh Terje, you dear sweet thing you. Does being so obtuse come naturally, or do you have to work at it?
At best, Shanners is calling the race before it’s over. At worst, he’s operating as a partisan propagandist. Either way, it don’t look good for his journalistic “credentials”, does it?
Oh, what the heck. Have it your way. Shanners understands public opinion because he owns it. He reminds me of no-one so much as Saddam’s last Press Secretary, ‘Comical Ali’, telling the news cameras there are no U.S. tanks in Baghdad…
Or, to comment in Shanners-speak…
Flynnboy – I don’t know what exact number we should use but to claim a policy has popular support I think it needs to get past 50% at a minimum. Even that doesn’t really cut the mustard. Otherwise somebody could claim that there is popular support for a change of government on the strength of recent polls.
Flynnboy – I don’t know what exact number we should use but to claim a policy has popular support I think it needs to get past 50% at a minimum. Even that doesn’t really cut the mustard. Otherwise somebody could claim that there is popular support for a change of government on the strength of recent polls.
Mercurious – my sweetness comes naturally. Nice of you to notice.
Mercurious – my sweetness comes naturally. Nice of you to notice.
Barnaby Joyce had my daughter and I laughing like drains last night. I wish the Libs would let him out more often. It appears to me that he spaeaks without breathing and then, as his oxygen blood levels drop, instead of taking a breath, he continues to speak in order to blot out the panic stricken messages from the lower levels of his brain saying “breathe, breathe” whereon his stuttering thoughts become unfiltered and out it all just pops. Astonishing performance. Every interview is like watching him have a nervous breakdown. ALP solid of the mining tax. Don’t believe the media bullshit.
Barnaby Joyce had my daughter and I laughing like drains last night. I wish the Libs would let him out more often. It appears to me that he spaeaks without breathing and then, as his oxygen blood levels drop, instead of taking a breath, he continues to speak in order to blot out the panic stricken messages from the lower levels of his brain saying “breathe, breathe” whereon his stuttering thoughts become unfiltered and out it all just pops. Astonishing performance. Every interview is like watching him have a nervous breakdown. ALP solid of the mining tax. Don’t believe the media bullshit.
“Next we can expect Shanahan to be given a “guest spot” on ABC Radio to repeat this meme. The OO’s chief political editor has become a semi-regular lately on their ABC.”
Wouldn’t surprise me.
I noticed that ABC2 Breakfast News had Tim Wilson of that oh so “independent thinking” Institute of Public Affairs as a guest to peruse (select articles, headlines) the morning papers.
Interesting choice of guest considering the background info provided on the IPA site reads:
And Wilson has contributed an article to The Australian called:
Nothing like inviting the FOXES into the henhouse Virginia.
Check out more of Tim Wilson’s valuable contributions to our “balanced” media.
http://www.ipa.org.au/people/tim-wilson
N’
“Next we can expect Shanahan to be given a “guest spot” on ABC Radio to repeat this meme. The OO’s chief political editor has become a semi-regular lately on their ABC.”
Wouldn’t surprise me.
I noticed that ABC2 Breakfast News had Tim Wilson of that oh so “independent thinking” Institute of Public Affairs as a guest to peruse (select articles, headlines) the morning papers.
Interesting choice of guest considering the background info provided on the IPA site reads:
And Wilson has contributed an article to The Australian called:
Nothing like inviting the FOXES into the henhouse Virginia.
Check out more of Tim Wilson’s valuable contributions to our “balanced” media.
http://www.ipa.org.au/people/tim-wilson
N’
“It should have been electoral gold…Unfortunately, the government hasn’t handled the issue quite as well as it might have, and seemed underprepared for the onslaught from the mining sector”
Don’t believe THE HYPE. They said the same about Obama’s healthcare push. A compromise will come about. If the government pushes hard enuff…gets the literature out to the people. And uses the blogs, YouTube and other avenues effectively. Rather than burning their bridges, like they seem to be doin’ w/ Facebook.
I noticed Catallaxy got a free plug on the ABC this morn by Wilson. Were they used by the OZ?
N’
N’
“It should have been electoral gold…Unfortunately, the government hasn’t handled the issue quite as well as it might have, and seemed underprepared for the onslaught from the mining sector”
Don’t believe THE HYPE. They said the same about Obama’s healthcare push. A compromise will come about. If the government pushes hard enuff…gets the literature out to the people. And uses the blogs, YouTube and other avenues effectively. Rather than burning their bridges, like they seem to be doin’ w/ Facebook.
I noticed Catallaxy got a free plug on the ABC this morn by Wilson. Were they used by the OZ?
N’
N’
“Otherwise somebody could claim that there is popular support for a change of government on the strength of recent polls.”
Latest 2PP polling is 52/48 in Labor’s favour TerjeP. And that is based on a broad range of complex issues. A clear majority are in favour of the tax, based upon a single, simple question.
Shannahan somehow arrives at the conclusion that this means that the government has failed to win popular support for this move and then uses that conclusion to conclude that “The Rudd government, incredibly, has lost the fight over the RSPT.”
Remarkable series of conclusions wouldn’t you say?
“Otherwise somebody could claim that there is popular support for a change of government on the strength of recent polls.”
Latest 2PP polling is 52/48 in Labor’s favour TerjeP. And that is based on a broad range of complex issues. A clear majority are in favour of the tax, based upon a single, simple question.
Shannahan somehow arrives at the conclusion that this means that the government has failed to win popular support for this move and then uses that conclusion to conclude that “The Rudd government, incredibly, has lost the fight over the RSPT.”
Remarkable series of conclusions wouldn’t you say?
Well, if the ABC uses Shanahan as a serious commentator who deserves to be believed rather than as a dramaturge for some rightwing political drama, I suppose one can expect other rightwing dross to be taken seriously as well. More than a pity – an absolute disgrace.
Well, if the ABC uses Shanahan as a serious commentator who deserves to be believed rather than as a dramaturge for some rightwing political drama, I suppose one can expect other rightwing dross to be taken seriously as well. More than a pity – an absolute disgrace.
We are told that some other big resource exporters are watching the RSPT with interest. I would love to hear leftist Luis da Silva (Brazil) Pres Zuma (SA) and PM Singh of India give Kev a lift in polling. I wonder if anyone in DFAT has picked up the phone. C’mon Simon, Steve, shoulder to the wheel.
We are told that some other big resource exporters are watching the RSPT with interest. I would love to hear leftist Luis da Silva (Brazil) Pres Zuma (SA) and PM Singh of India give Kev a lift in polling. I wonder if anyone in DFAT has picked up the phone. C’mon Simon, Steve, shoulder to the wheel.
Opinion polls are all very well, but Mr. Shanahan has gone to a higher and wiser authority: he asked a couple of people in the bar of the Mosman RSL.
Opinion polls are all very well, but Mr. Shanahan has gone to a higher and wiser authority: he asked a couple of people in the bar of the Mosman RSL.
OTOH Mercurius, TerjeP has to work (pretty damned hard) at the obtusenes – don’t forget he’s a libertarian.
OTOH Mercurius, TerjeP has to work (pretty damned hard) at the obtusenes – don’t forget he’s a libertarian.
I was also disappointed that [the government] didn’t consult Garnaut, given his expertise on resource taxation. A few hours of meetings might have enabled the government to iron out some of the design wrinkles – LO @12
What design wrinkles, LO? I suspect you’ve already bought the miner’s fallback negotiating position – “well it’s liveable with in principle but the particular amounts are just too harsh”.
As it becomes clear that the government isn’t going to fold (even Rudd must see that folding would make him look far worse than holding out), then expect to see the Shanahans and the business commentariat retreat to this position.
I was also disappointed that [the government] didn’t consult Garnaut, given his expertise on resource taxation. A few hours of meetings might have enabled the government to iron out some of the design wrinkles – LO @12
What design wrinkles, LO? I suspect you’ve already bought the miner’s fallback negotiating position – “well it’s liveable with in principle but the particular amounts are just too harsh”.
As it becomes clear that the government isn’t going to fold (even Rudd must see that folding would make him look far worse than holding out), then expect to see the Shanahans and the business commentariat retreat to this position.
Oh, and as a BTW, how do you know they didn’t talk to Garnaut? After all, it’s not as though he’s a stranger at Treasury.
Oh, and as a BTW, how do you know they didn’t talk to Garnaut? After all, it’s not as though he’s a stranger at Treasury.
Since when has 43 been a lower number than 36?
Since when has 43 been a lower number than 36?
Don’t tell me the chocolate ration has been increased again!
Don’t tell me the chocolate ration has been increased again!
DI(nr)
and Big Ben just struck 14….
DI(nr)
and Big Ben just struck 14….
The trouble for the ALP is people who support a mining tax in principle, but have non defined benefit super. Met two today in that boat who blame Rudd for declines in shares. The joys of a share owning democracy: government, politics rise and fall on market whims.
The trouble for the ALP is people who support a mining tax in principle, but have non defined benefit super. Met two today in that boat who blame Rudd for declines in shares. The joys of a share owning democracy: government, politics rise and fall on market whims.