THE Abbott Coalition has broken through for the first time to a clear election-winning lead of 53-47 per cent in an Age/Nielsen poll that will rattle Labor and intensify pressure to change its increasingly unpopular mining tax… The ALP primary vote has dived 4 points to a rock-bottom 33 per cent. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s approval has fallen 4 points to 41 per cent – on top of last month’s 14-point tumble. But while the Coalition’s primary vote is up a point to 43 per cent, Tony Abbott’s approval is down 5 points to 41 per cent.
Reaction from Possum and The Poll Bludger. A couple of key points – the Green primary in this poll is 15%, and (as pointed out by Possum) Nielsen explicitly asks Greens voters about their preference allocation, and the proportion of Greens preferences flowing to Labor is down from 85% in November 2009 to 68% now.
It’s one poll and the election hasn’t been called yet, but I’d sure prefer it the other way.
UPDATE: It appears that Nielsen asks about preferences in totality, rather than just second preferences.
UPDATE 2: Essential Report is out. Labor 52-48 TPP, up 1% from last week. Greens primary also on the increase, to 12%. Pick which poll you prefer… (HT Zarquon in comments)
It’s depressing reading the average Australian’s view of this in the Daily Telegraph threads.
Rudd is toast
It’s depressing reading the average Australian’s view of this in the Daily Telegraph threads.
Rudd is toast
Robert do you know if Nielsen just ask for the second preference or the entire preference list (Possum’s site seems to say the latter)? I find it a bit hard to believe that a significant number of Greens voters will preference the liberal party ahead of labor, but I could understand if they found another minor party to preference before labor.
Robert do you know if Nielsen just ask for the second preference or the entire preference list (Possum’s site seems to say the latter)? I find it a bit hard to believe that a significant number of Greens voters will preference the liberal party ahead of labor, but I could understand if they found another minor party to preference before labor.
tssk: I wouldn’t consider the people who comment on Telegraph comment threads as any more representative as those who comment on LP.
tssk: I wouldn’t consider the people who comment on Telegraph comment threads as any more representative as those who comment on LP.
This is ugly and a shame, ugly that some Australians would consider the Dark Monk and his Coven from Hell at all, and a shame that Brand Rudd hasn’t moved fast and cleanly enuff to offset the ubiquitous bleating of the very rich.
This is ugly and a shame, ugly that some Australians would consider the Dark Monk and his Coven from Hell at all, and a shame that Brand Rudd hasn’t moved fast and cleanly enuff to offset the ubiquitous bleating of the very rich.
Chris, Possum’s post seems to suggest the second option (the entire preference list).
Chris, Possum’s post seems to suggest the second option (the entire preference list).
What was the last PM that only lasted one term? Even Withlam with all his problems managed to be re-elected. Rudd looks like joining Howard (a PM that lost his seat) in the history books.
What was the last PM that only lasted one term? Even Withlam with all his problems managed to be re-elected. Rudd looks like joining Howard (a PM that lost his seat) in the history books.
Malcolm, come on down! Rudd is on the nose, but they don’t want Abbott either. Rudd could be in real trouble if Mal makes a comeback. Is it likely?
Malcolm, come on down! Rudd is on the nose, but they don’t want Abbott either. Rudd could be in real trouble if Mal makes a comeback. Is it likely?
To those above that asked about preferences, Nielsen ask respondents to allocate their own preferences if their first preference is for someone other than the ALP or Coalition.
To those above that asked about preferences, Nielsen ask respondents to allocate their own preferences if their first preference is for someone other than the ALP or Coalition.
Mondy @ 7, both Malcolm Turnbull and Julia Gillard want their current leader to go to this election, and then do them over soon after.
Mondy @ 7, both Malcolm Turnbull and Julia Gillard want their current leader to go to this election, and then do them over soon after.
Lets be positive: Things Rudd can do to turn this around.
1. Quietly kill off Conroy and the internet filter. Young people think it blows. Why the ALp neds this ball and chain right now is beyond me.
2. Eat humble pie, mea culpa and revisit climate change action – it’ll be back after 2010 election, but with fewer giveaways. The LNOP can negotiate with us then, or we’ll do have to do it with the Greens. NZ now has one – and the sky didnt fall in.
3. Explain some friggin policies, please!! Come up with a tight one-liner about the RSPT and hammer it. Explain the reform narrative that the nation’s patrimony will be spent on: super, a dental scheme, trainign a modern workforce.
4. If we must play this game – explain the serious reduction in migration numbers that has occurred lately since they cleaned up the unregulated mess that was the “student-studies-hardressing-becomes-citizen” rort of the Howard era. Get the dogs whislting round at Tony’s for a change.
Front foot – charge! Stop being such a pack of wusses!!
Lets be positive: Things Rudd can do to turn this around.
1. Quietly kill off Conroy and the internet filter. Young people think it blows. Why the ALp neds this ball and chain right now is beyond me.
2. Eat humble pie, mea culpa and revisit climate change action – it’ll be back after 2010 election, but with fewer giveaways. The LNOP can negotiate with us then, or we’ll do have to do it with the Greens. NZ now has one – and the sky didnt fall in.
3. Explain some friggin policies, please!! Come up with a tight one-liner about the RSPT and hammer it. Explain the reform narrative that the nation’s patrimony will be spent on: super, a dental scheme, trainign a modern workforce.
4. If we must play this game – explain the serious reduction in migration numbers that has occurred lately since they cleaned up the unregulated mess that was the “student-studies-hardressing-becomes-citizen” rort of the Howard era. Get the dogs whislting round at Tony’s for a change.
Front foot – charge! Stop being such a pack of wusses!!
LeftyE, the first thing the National govt did in NZ when they were elected was trash the emissions trading scheme. It cost them a few hundred million in immediate investment (mostly forestry), but they did it anyway. So, NZ does not have any sort of CPRS. Unless you mean massive industry subsidies to insulate polluters from their costs? That NZ definitely has.
LeftyE, the first thing the National govt did in NZ when they were elected was trash the emissions trading scheme. It cost them a few hundred million in immediate investment (mostly forestry), but they did it anyway. So, NZ does not have any sort of CPRS. Unless you mean massive industry subsidies to insulate polluters from their costs? That NZ definitely has.
All of those things are good, LE, but my guess is that the most important one will be number 5 – use Abbott and WorkChoices in the same sentence approximately one million times during the election campaign.
All of those things are good, LE, but my guess is that the most important one will be number 5 – use Abbott and WorkChoices in the same sentence approximately one million times during the election campaign.
I would focus on number six and seven. The dearth of talent and lack of policy the opposition has.
I would focus on number six and seven. The dearth of talent and lack of policy the opposition has.
Judging by the midday news, there hammering “the imagine Abbott as PM line”, which is a pretty good line considering what the polls are saying.
But, yeah – explain, communicate, Workchoices etc.
Judging by the midday news, there hammering “the imagine Abbott as PM line”, which is a pretty good line considering what the polls are saying.
But, yeah – explain, communicate, Workchoices etc.
Guido @ 6 -
Are you kidding? Lilley is heald by 8% by the ALP, It’s in prime ALP heartland. Howard lost his seat on a small margin, against a dedicated candidate in a demographically changing area. Why would you even try to predict him loosing the seat?
That said, It’s too early to make this call, the numbers don’t look good now, but Possum is onto it. There is a lot of internal disquiet about Tony Abbott and if anything that’s going to stop this from happening. It doesn’t mean the ALP can sit back and relax, but it should make a few positive steps and jetisson poor policy choices then go to a promote positives/denounce the Opp. Leader strategy at the election. Which is going to be next year at this rate.
PinkyOz
Guido @ 6 -
Are you kidding? Lilley is heald by 8% by the ALP, It’s in prime ALP heartland. Howard lost his seat on a small margin, against a dedicated candidate in a demographically changing area. Why would you even try to predict him loosing the seat?
That said, It’s too early to make this call, the numbers don’t look good now, but Possum is onto it. There is a lot of internal disquiet about Tony Abbott and if anything that’s going to stop this from happening. It doesn’t mean the ALP can sit back and relax, but it should make a few positive steps and jetisson poor policy choices then go to a promote positives/denounce the Opp. Leader strategy at the election. Which is going to be next year at this rate.
PinkyOz
It’s certainly depressing, even if Rudd and the ALP manage to turn things around from here, to see the power the Murdoch press still has over public opinion in this country.
The question I would have, given the 15% support to the Greens shows that the recent Newspoll was no rogue poll, is how uniform this swing to the Greens is? Is this swing happening in seats that the Greens stand a chance in, or is it mostly in suburban seats where, frankly, a 15% Green vote won’t count for much except for where the Preferences flow to?
If Rudd can at least get the 2nd prefs of those Green voters, and the Greens manage to pick up a few inner city seats in a close race, then we could end up with the Greens holding the balance of power. On many issues where the Greens are greener than the Government and social policy issues (public health, public education, gay marriage, industrial relations, assylum seekers, etc.) where the Greens are to the left of the ALP, the Greens holding the balance of power in the House of Reps may not be a bad thing (especially given they are more likely to give Rudd another term rather than side with Taliban Tony Abbott)…
It’s certainly depressing, even if Rudd and the ALP manage to turn things around from here, to see the power the Murdoch press still has over public opinion in this country.
The question I would have, given the 15% support to the Greens shows that the recent Newspoll was no rogue poll, is how uniform this swing to the Greens is? Is this swing happening in seats that the Greens stand a chance in, or is it mostly in suburban seats where, frankly, a 15% Green vote won’t count for much except for where the Preferences flow to?
If Rudd can at least get the 2nd prefs of those Green voters, and the Greens manage to pick up a few inner city seats in a close race, then we could end up with the Greens holding the balance of power. On many issues where the Greens are greener than the Government and social policy issues (public health, public education, gay marriage, industrial relations, assylum seekers, etc.) where the Greens are to the left of the ALP, the Greens holding the balance of power in the House of Reps may not be a bad thing (especially given they are more likely to give Rudd another term rather than side with Taliban Tony Abbott)…
The difficulty for Rudd is that any signficant policy change he makes now looks like another backflip. The best he can really do is to improve his communication and hope that the coalition does something really stupid.
Politically Abbott has a strong incentive to remain in opposion mode right up until an election is announced and only then switch to alternate government mode. I think he should Abbott should avoid anything that smells like new spending, unless matched by spending cuts. And he should definitely avoid anything that looks like new taxes. Unfortunately tax cuts probably wouldn’t play well for him so long as he is playing the fiscal conservative card. He could however make some sort of aspirational statements about tax cuts as Rudd did before the 2007 election.
Personally I want the ALP to lose this election and suffer pain such that they learn that the Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending. That would represent meaningful reform. I think that given the limited options and the electoral system we have the Australian electorate generally gets it right. However even though I think Howard was past his used by date I still think that in 2007 the electorate got it wrong. Rudd isn’t a good leader for the ALP or for the nation.
The difficulty for Rudd is that any signficant policy change he makes now looks like another backflip. The best he can really do is to improve his communication and hope that the coalition does something really stupid.
Politically Abbott has a strong incentive to remain in opposion mode right up until an election is announced and only then switch to alternate government mode. I think he should Abbott should avoid anything that smells like new spending, unless matched by spending cuts. And he should definitely avoid anything that looks like new taxes. Unfortunately tax cuts probably wouldn’t play well for him so long as he is playing the fiscal conservative card. He could however make some sort of aspirational statements about tax cuts as Rudd did before the 2007 election.
Personally I want the ALP to lose this election and suffer pain such that they learn that the Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending. That would represent meaningful reform. I think that given the limited options and the electoral system we have the Australian electorate generally gets it right. However even though I think Howard was past his used by date I still think that in 2007 the electorate got it wrong. Rudd isn’t a good leader for the ALP or for the nation.
It’s amazing – if you had asked me about this in Jan or Feb I wouldn’t have predicted it in a million years. Rudd was a record-breaking prime minister in popularity and the electorate has turned on with amazing alacrity – moreso than Howard ever garnered either way.
The intriguing thing to me is how Labor made some key policy decisions without running it through some focus groups – the moves to this would have stuck out like sore thumbs. Truly, the must be going broke.
It’s amazing – if you had asked me about this in Jan or Feb I wouldn’t have predicted it in a million years. Rudd was a record-breaking prime minister in popularity and the electorate has turned on with amazing alacrity – moreso than Howard ever garnered either way.
The intriguing thing to me is how Labor made some key policy decisions without running it through some focus groups – the moves to this would have stuck out like sore thumbs. Truly, the must be going broke.
“Personally I want the ALP to lose this election and suffer pain such that they learn that the Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending.”
That’s how you might read an ALP defeat Terje, but do you really believe this to be true?
“Personally I want the ALP to lose this election and suffer pain such that they learn that the Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending.”
That’s how you might read an ALP defeat Terje, but do you really believe this to be true?
I’m starting to ponder what it means to have Christopher Pyne as the Minister responsible for Higher Education. The expansion of equity-based places in the universities is a gonner, for a start, so Vice-Chancellors in some of the suburban universities may need to start rethinking that.
I’m starting to ponder what it means to have Christopher Pyne as the Minister responsible for Higher Education. The expansion of equity-based places in the universities is a gonner, for a start, so Vice-Chancellors in some of the suburban universities may need to start rethinking that.
AT @ 16 you think the swing to the Greens is all down to the influence of the evil Murdoch press? Oh well, you’re entitled to your own interpretation I guess.
As is Terje, who seems to think Australia is a seething mass of angry teabaggers demanding smaller government.
The blogosphere really does demonstrate the nature of the era in which we live; one in which not only are there no agreed facts, but where there is no agreed method of discovering them.
AT @ 16 you think the swing to the Greens is all down to the influence of the evil Murdoch press? Oh well, you’re entitled to your own interpretation I guess.
As is Terje, who seems to think Australia is a seething mass of angry teabaggers demanding smaller government.
The blogosphere really does demonstrate the nature of the era in which we live; one in which not only are there no agreed facts, but where there is no agreed method of discovering them.
Rudd was perceived to break his word on ETS; his government is pereceived as incapable of implementing programmes successfully. Its immaterial whether this is true or not; its immaterial whether Labor did this all themselves, or the Murcochcracy and it lick-spittling running dog lackeys like the ABC did it for them. As I said before, the electorate trusted Rudd, after years and years of having a PM who was a bare-faced liar. It doesn’t matter that Rudd generally is not a liar: people think he might be. He has lost their trust. I think there is a very deep strain of anger about betrayal in the ALPs fall in the polls. It doesn’t matter that there was no actual betrayal. That’s what people think has happened.
What does mystify me is how the Abbott Goon Show isa beyond neck and neck with Labor.No explanation for that whatever on Abbott’s current form. If anything, the reaction to him on Italian National Day seems to indicate he is both stupid and deeply unpopular.Guess we’ll know soon enough when the election comes along.
Rudd was perceived to break his word on ETS; his government is pereceived as incapable of implementing programmes successfully. Its immaterial whether this is true or not; its immaterial whether Labor did this all themselves, or the Murcochcracy and it lick-spittling running dog lackeys like the ABC did it for them. As I said before, the electorate trusted Rudd, after years and years of having a PM who was a bare-faced liar. It doesn’t matter that Rudd generally is not a liar: people think he might be. He has lost their trust. I think there is a very deep strain of anger about betrayal in the ALPs fall in the polls. It doesn’t matter that there was no actual betrayal. That’s what people think has happened.
What does mystify me is how the Abbott Goon Show isa beyond neck and neck with Labor.No explanation for that whatever on Abbott’s current form. If anything, the reaction to him on Italian National Day seems to indicate he is both stupid and deeply unpopular.Guess we’ll know soon enough when the election comes along.
Terje said:
That’s not what they will learn. They will learn that the Minerals Council and the fossil fuel industry more generally are in charge and focus on making sure that government policy favours them at the expense of pretty much everyone else now and into the future. They may also conclude that expensive and brutal off-shore asylum seeker processing makes good political sense and that we ought to spend up big on that when those other countries that Tony Abbott wants to dump boat people in our area get the hump and tell him where he can stick them.
There will be a return to rural partnerships program-style porkbarreling, the dissolution of schoolfunding and an abdnonment of good policy on broaband. It’s likely that if the Abbott regime has its way we will see a surge in unemployment and bankruptcy — assuming they adopt Bush-era responses to the next wave of overseas debt crises. The housding market would obviously decline hard amidst forced sales, wiping out not only homeowners but marginal businesses in which homes were collateral.
It would probably turn out that an Abbott regime would be the final watershed for the kinds of policy options that you and your fellow ideologues are keen on as people finally understood that these slogans were code for massive inequality. a politically-driven recession and the ruin of hundrerds of thousands of lives in a venal pitch at returning to the worst of the Howard years. For a generation, people would refer to the Abbott regime much as people talk of Thatcher now.
I would not wish this on anyone, and still believe an Abbot win unlikely, but if people really are that damaged as a result of years of Keating-Howard-Rudd rule perhaps it’s something we simply have to endure so as to earn better circumstances.
Terje said:
That’s not what they will learn. They will learn that the Minerals Council and the fossil fuel industry more generally are in charge and focus on making sure that government policy favours them at the expense of pretty much everyone else now and into the future. They may also conclude that expensive and brutal off-shore asylum seeker processing makes good political sense and that we ought to spend up big on that when those other countries that Tony Abbott wants to dump boat people in our area get the hump and tell him where he can stick them.
There will be a return to rural partnerships program-style porkbarreling, the dissolution of schoolfunding and an abdnonment of good policy on broaband. It’s likely that if the Abbott regime has its way we will see a surge in unemployment and bankruptcy — assuming they adopt Bush-era responses to the next wave of overseas debt crises. The housding market would obviously decline hard amidst forced sales, wiping out not only homeowners but marginal businesses in which homes were collateral.
It would probably turn out that an Abbott regime would be the final watershed for the kinds of policy options that you and your fellow ideologues are keen on as people finally understood that these slogans were code for massive inequality. a politically-driven recession and the ruin of hundrerds of thousands of lives in a venal pitch at returning to the worst of the Howard years. For a generation, people would refer to the Abbott regime much as people talk of Thatcher now.
I would not wish this on anyone, and still believe an Abbot win unlikely, but if people really are that damaged as a result of years of Keating-Howard-Rudd rule perhaps it’s something we simply have to endure so as to earn better circumstances.
Even I don’t think Rudd could stuff up the election this badly.
Even I don’t think Rudd could stuff up the election this badly.
I think there is some truth in it. And even if it wasn’t accurate it is still the conclusion I would like the ALP to draw.
Clearly it isn’t. That doesn’t mean that it couldn’t or won’t in time be more like that. I do think that the Internet and it’s ability to fascilitate social movements and information gathering does make government spending much more exposed to criticism than it was in the past. When the Ron Paul for President crowd kicked off some of the precursors to the tea party movement almost nobody thought it was a serious or significant thing (not even Ron Paul thought it would come to much). However it grew pretty quickly. Obviously the tea party bit does not have the same cultural resonance in Australia but I think we will in time see a similar middle class push against tax eaters and centralisers. There is a growing consciousness regarding the limited competence of government.
I think there is some truth in it. And even if it wasn’t accurate it is still the conclusion I would like the ALP to draw.
Clearly it isn’t. That doesn’t mean that it couldn’t or won’t in time be more like that. I do think that the Internet and it’s ability to fascilitate social movements and information gathering does make government spending much more exposed to criticism than it was in the past. When the Ron Paul for President crowd kicked off some of the precursors to the tea party movement almost nobody thought it was a serious or significant thing (not even Ron Paul thought it would come to much). However it grew pretty quickly. Obviously the tea party bit does not have the same cultural resonance in Australia but I think we will in time see a similar middle class push against tax eaters and centralisers. There is a growing consciousness regarding the limited competence of government.
In case you haven’t noticed I’m a critic of Abbott and he isn’t even in the political party that I support.
In case you haven’t noticed I’m a critic of Abbott and he isn’t even in the political party that I support.
Agree 100% with Lefty, Rudd needs to clearly explain his policies , and he should at every opportunity remind the electorate that under an Abbott led govt, the multi-national mining interests will be pulling the strings to feather their own nest at the expense of the rest of the country.Abbott as puppet has a nice ring to it.
Agree 100% with Lefty, Rudd needs to clearly explain his policies , and he should at every opportunity remind the electorate that under an Abbott led govt, the multi-national mining interests will be pulling the strings to feather their own nest at the expense of the rest of the country.Abbott as puppet has a nice ring to it.
“It’s one poll and the election hasn’t been called yet, but I’d sure prefer it the other way.”
Well I guess that’s the good thing about living in a democracy Robert – at the moment, 53% of Australian’s disagree with you!
Australian politics is truly a political wasteland at the moment. Rudd & Swann have shown their true colours with the RSPT – very red! On the other side you’ve got politicans who would normally be considered unelectable in Abbott, Bishop, Robb and Joyce (how scary that they may become the government). Then we’ve got the really scary proposition that Bob Brown and his watermelons will hold the balance of power.
The only three leading politicians I’ve got any respect for are Gillard, Tanner and Hockey. Shame they’re on different sides.
Is there any hope that Gillard takes the reins before the election?
“It’s one poll and the election hasn’t been called yet, but I’d sure prefer it the other way.”
Well I guess that’s the good thing about living in a democracy Robert – at the moment, 53% of Australian’s disagree with you!
Australian politics is truly a political wasteland at the moment. Rudd & Swann have shown their true colours with the RSPT – very red! On the other side you’ve got politicans who would normally be considered unelectable in Abbott, Bishop, Robb and Joyce (how scary that they may become the government). Then we’ve got the really scary proposition that Bob Brown and his watermelons will hold the balance of power.
The only three leading politicians I’ve got any respect for are Gillard, Tanner and Hockey. Shame they’re on different sides.
Is there any hope that Gillard takes the reins before the election?
Craig Mc @ 24 -
Well, He doesn’t have to go to an election until next year, why risk it on bad poll results, especially if you don’t have to?
It’s a bit wait and see, but it’s looking more likely that it will be next year.
PinkyOz
Craig Mc @ 24 -
Well, He doesn’t have to go to an election until next year, why risk it on bad poll results, especially if you don’t have to?
It’s a bit wait and see, but it’s looking more likely that it will be next year.
PinkyOz
As you were.
As you were.
Su’s ref in Saturday Salon to Marr’s take on Rudd was interesting. The implication seemed to be that he had no political instincts. Certainly his actions on ETS seemed to bare this out. It was never explained at much more than a superficial level. Despite all the Murdoch noise, a lot of people take Climate Change seriously.
There has been a reluctance to spell out some of the benefits of Govt changes and proposals on Health and Education and these should be strengths, especially contrasted with the coalition past and present. But not much at all, not even much of a response to the bullshit campaign about the waste in school buildings spending (compared with what?? .. the erecting of school flags?). Even the insulation program ought to have been a plus, but they’ve allowed Abbott’s hyperbole that Garrett should tried for manslaughter to float away without ridicule.
I’d still expect them to win, but let’s hope that there’s a few in Cabinet with political instincts who have a bit more say on promoting policy. Agree with an earlier poster that the dumping of Conroy and net censorship would be a good start.
Su’s ref in Saturday Salon to Marr’s take on Rudd was interesting. The implication seemed to be that he had no political instincts. Certainly his actions on ETS seemed to bare this out. It was never explained at much more than a superficial level. Despite all the Murdoch noise, a lot of people take Climate Change seriously.
There has been a reluctance to spell out some of the benefits of Govt changes and proposals on Health and Education and these should be strengths, especially contrasted with the coalition past and present. But not much at all, not even much of a response to the bullshit campaign about the waste in school buildings spending (compared with what?? .. the erecting of school flags?). Even the insulation program ought to have been a plus, but they’ve allowed Abbott’s hyperbole that Garrett should tried for manslaughter to float away without ridicule.
I’d still expect them to win, but let’s hope that there’s a few in Cabinet with political instincts who have a bit more say on promoting policy. Agree with an earlier poster that the dumping of Conroy and net censorship would be a good start.
Rudd is dead meat.
The ALP must dump him now if they wish to win the next election.
Reason: Rudd’s unattractive control freak persona is now indelibly implanted in the mind of the marginal voter. The same thing happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980. Whatever virtues both leaders may have had were vitiated by these corrosive personality issues.
Luckily for the ALP, the Westminster system enables speedy removal of the offending object.
Rudd is dead meat.
The ALP must dump him now if they wish to win the next election.
Reason: Rudd’s unattractive control freak persona is now indelibly implanted in the mind of the marginal voter. The same thing happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980. Whatever virtues both leaders may have had were vitiated by these corrosive personality issues.
Luckily for the ALP, the Westminster system enables speedy removal of the offending object.
Terje said:
Which would make your preference for a big win to Abbott even sillier. Subtleties of the kind you like are way beyond the ken of the people who shift between the two major parties. Most would see Abbott as an iteration of “pro-business/capitalist/rightwing” policies with which you would be bracketed, just as many people think socialism includes everything that is not Thatcherite.
So when the Abbott regime led to disaster, as it would, your lot would be discredited, especially since you are plugging for them.
Terje said:
Which would make your preference for a big win to Abbott even sillier. Subtleties of the kind you like are way beyond the ken of the people who shift between the two major parties. Most would see Abbott as an iteration of “pro-business/capitalist/rightwing” policies with which you would be bracketed, just as many people think socialism includes everything that is not Thatcherite.
So when the Abbott regime led to disaster, as it would, your lot would be discredited, especially since you are plugging for them.
This too will pass….
This too will pass….
Good to see Essential restore the Govt’s 2PP lead (down 2 on primaries though).
But they are on notice. Something’s gotta change.
Good to see Essential restore the Govt’s 2PP lead (down 2 on primaries though).
But they are on notice. Something’s gotta change.
I think Rudd’s people made the mistake of reading the Murdoch press too closely. By reacting in such a knee-jerk way to each and every issue beaten up by the Murdochracy and its ABC shadow, the Rudd government just managed to keep those stories alive.
Rudd was better off when he simply ignored the MSM and communicated to voters through Sunrise and Rove. Back then, he was perceived as curiously above politics. But now he’s allowed himself to be dragged down into the slime with everybody else.
If he had just kept banging away on those issues in which the government has a good story to sell (our economic performance through the GFC, health reform, cleaning out the wideboys from the financial services industry), he would have been better off now.
Instead, he allowed beat-ups over the insulation scheme and the BER to dominate the news cycle. He also failed to call the Coalition’s bluff on the ETS by refusing to threaten a double dissolution.
By the way, Terje’s belief that somewhow Rudd’s predicament represents an electoral endorsement of scorched earth economic neo-libertarianism (when those ideas have so thoroughly been discredited) is absolutely gob-smacking.
I think Rudd’s people made the mistake of reading the Murdoch press too closely. By reacting in such a knee-jerk way to each and every issue beaten up by the Murdochracy and its ABC shadow, the Rudd government just managed to keep those stories alive.
Rudd was better off when he simply ignored the MSM and communicated to voters through Sunrise and Rove. Back then, he was perceived as curiously above politics. But now he’s allowed himself to be dragged down into the slime with everybody else.
If he had just kept banging away on those issues in which the government has a good story to sell (our economic performance through the GFC, health reform, cleaning out the wideboys from the financial services industry), he would have been better off now.
Instead, he allowed beat-ups over the insulation scheme and the BER to dominate the news cycle. He also failed to call the Coalition’s bluff on the ETS by refusing to threaten a double dissolution.
By the way, Terje’s belief that somewhow Rudd’s predicament represents an electoral endorsement of scorched earth economic neo-libertarianism (when those ideas have so thoroughly been discredited) is absolutely gob-smacking.
Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending
Terje, you must have been asleep during four Howard campaigns, the public frigging _loves_ excessive spending. We will never see a middle-class uprising against welfare a la tea party in this country, given that the middle class are such huge recipients of it.
Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending
Terje, you must have been asleep during four Howard campaigns, the public frigging _loves_ excessive spending. We will never see a middle-class uprising against welfare a la tea party in this country, given that the middle class are such huge recipients of it.
Fran – Actually I was plugging for an ALP loss but I do see how that could confuse. And for what it is worth I’d hold my nose and vote for Rudd if he comes up with a credible policy to cut back on government spending and taxation more so than any alternative. It could even buy him votes elsewhere. In 2007 Rudd was the first ALP leader for a very long time to run a campaign on a policy of tax cuts and spending restraint.
Which policies of Abbotts are you thinking of when you suggest that I agree with his policies?
Fran – Actually I was plugging for an ALP loss but I do see how that could confuse. And for what it is worth I’d hold my nose and vote for Rudd if he comes up with a credible policy to cut back on government spending and taxation more so than any alternative. It could even buy him votes elsewhere. In 2007 Rudd was the first ALP leader for a very long time to run a campaign on a policy of tax cuts and spending restraint.
Which policies of Abbotts are you thinking of when you suggest that I agree with his policies?
Amen to that. How have the Libs been able to get away with this?
Amen to that. How have the Libs been able to get away with this?
Did we get four year federal terms while I wasn’t looking?
Did we get four year federal terms while I wasn’t looking?
Patrick – the Howard government lost as soon as they faced an opposition that was slightly more anti-government spending than Howard. So where is your evidence?
Patrick – the Howard government lost as soon as they faced an opposition that was slightly more anti-government spending than Howard. So where is your evidence?
Re Essential.
I find this interesting:
Hmmm ..
Re Essential.
I find this interesting:
Hmmm ..
OK, I see now he doesn’t have to call an election until 16 April 2011. It’s not just the simple 3 year limit I thought it was. Yay for civics!
OK, I see now he doesn’t have to call an election until 16 April 2011. It’s not just the simple 3 year limit I thought it was. Yay for civics!
Mr Denmore – you have not read what I wrote. I did not say that the Australian people support neo-liberalism. Clearly large sections of the population are still flirting with neo-socialism. Most are just pragmatic.
Mr Denmore – you have not read what I wrote. I did not say that the Australian people support neo-liberalism. Clearly large sections of the population are still flirting with neo-socialism. Most are just pragmatic.
Terje said:
Oh … yes, I overlooked the possibility that you’d be counting on them being swept from power by … err the Libertarian Party or, to reduce the sarcasm and get real here, Martians. I’ve heard greens are more popular these days.
Terje said:
Oh … yes, I overlooked the possibility that you’d be counting on them being swept from power by … err the Libertarian Party or, to reduce the sarcasm and get real here, Martians. I’ve heard greens are more popular these days.
17% of Coalition voters and 21% for ALP voters agree.
37% of ALP voters and 27% of Green voters agree.
Which all up shows most people have little clue.
17% of Coalition voters and 21% for ALP voters agree.
37% of ALP voters and 27% of Green voters agree.
Which all up shows most people have little clue.
Fran – I know that if the ALP loses then the Coalition wins. That does not mean that I’m happy about it. I wish they could both lose.
Fran – I know that if the ALP loses then the Coalition wins. That does not mean that I’m happy about it. I wish they could both lose.
The media has been dumping on Rudd ever since the backdown on CPRS. It is disappointing that Rudd has not held the Opposition and the Greens to account for the CPRS legislation’s failure in the Senate.
What is happening with the government’s communication strategy? Why arent they hammering the Coalition for its totally negative approach to every piece of legisation?
If it was not this serious, the complaints of the MSM about the governments performance would be a joke – especially compared with the mean and nasty government of JH who bought off every interest group with a handout.
The media has been dumping on Rudd ever since the backdown on CPRS. It is disappointing that Rudd has not held the Opposition and the Greens to account for the CPRS legislation’s failure in the Senate.
What is happening with the government’s communication strategy? Why arent they hammering the Coalition for its totally negative approach to every piece of legisation?
If it was not this serious, the complaints of the MSM about the governments performance would be a joke – especially compared with the mean and nasty government of JH who bought off every interest group with a handout.
Terje @44 said: “Most (voters) are just pragmatic.”
And amen to that. We’ve had more than enough “isms” in the last century, thanks very much.
While accepting that Rudd has disappointed on some fronts, I still can’t connect the dots to the Coalition’s revived standing. Surely, surely, people will wake up when they seriously contemplate the propsect of a cabinet comprising Abbott, Hockey, Bishop, Pyne, Joyce and Dutton??
I really don’t understand it.
Terje @44 said: “Most (voters) are just pragmatic.”
And amen to that. We’ve had more than enough “isms” in the last century, thanks very much.
While accepting that Rudd has disappointed on some fronts, I still can’t connect the dots to the Coalition’s revived standing. Surely, surely, people will wake up when they seriously contemplate the propsect of a cabinet comprising Abbott, Hockey, Bishop, Pyne, Joyce and Dutton??
I really don’t understand it.
Terje said:
Indeed … so do I, in theory, but we’ve been through this. They can’t both lose unless someone else wins. Unless you can point to another group that might conceivably sweep to power (e.g in the UK there was a highly improbable chance of the LDP winning), the ALP not winning equals the Coalition winning. So in practice, you are being evasive. You are plugging for a Coalition win.
Terje said:
Indeed … so do I, in theory, but we’ve been through this. They can’t both lose unless someone else wins. Unless you can point to another group that might conceivably sweep to power (e.g in the UK there was a highly improbable chance of the LDP winning), the ALP not winning equals the Coalition winning. So in practice, you are being evasive. You are plugging for a Coalition win.
@17.
“Personally I want the ALP to lose this election and suffer pain such that they learn that the Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending.”
Well I don’t foresee much of a problem for the ALP then as the electorate has become accustomed to getting large handouts from government, just look at what happened to spending and the size of the government under the last conservative regime.
@17.
“Personally I want the ALP to lose this election and suffer pain such that they learn that the Australia electorate hates government debt and excessive government spending.”
Well I don’t foresee much of a problem for the ALP then as the electorate has become accustomed to getting large handouts from government, just look at what happened to spending and the size of the government under the last conservative regime.
Mr Denmore, they certainly will. Once an election is called, polls will show a dramatic “narrowing”, they always do (here and in many other places).
As Hartcher rightly pointed out, Howard fought back from far, far worse at the end of his first term – and say what you will about Beazley, he was hardly as noxious to swinging voters as Abbott and the Opposition all-stars like Bishop etc are. When people starting weighing up, those green preferences will shrink, and Labor will inevitably increase their primary on top of that. Especially as Abbott’s insanity and the front bench’s incompetence becomes even more apparent under the pressure of a campaign.
Mr Denmore, they certainly will. Once an election is called, polls will show a dramatic “narrowing”, they always do (here and in many other places).
As Hartcher rightly pointed out, Howard fought back from far, far worse at the end of his first term – and say what you will about Beazley, he was hardly as noxious to swinging voters as Abbott and the Opposition all-stars like Bishop etc are. When people starting weighing up, those green preferences will shrink, and Labor will inevitably increase their primary on top of that. Especially as Abbott’s insanity and the front bench’s incompetence becomes even more apparent under the pressure of a campaign.
Abbott’s spinmeisters have been very effective at highlighting the “unAustralian” features of Rudd’s persona by “showing” Abbott, not by “telling about” Abbott.
Budgie smuggling, bike riding, and playing dad in public have invited the marginal voter to make a comparison.
That comparison diminishes Rudd.
If he weren’t fighting for his political life in the electorate of Melbourne, I’d recommend Tanner as a winning substitute for Rudd.
Abbott’s spinmeisters have been very effective at highlighting the “unAustralian” features of Rudd’s persona by “showing” Abbott, not by “telling about” Abbott.
Budgie smuggling, bike riding, and playing dad in public have invited the marginal voter to make a comparison.
That comparison diminishes Rudd.
If he weren’t fighting for his political life in the electorate of Melbourne, I’d recommend Tanner as a winning substitute for Rudd.
Fran – if the coalition winning is the price of the ALP losing then in my mind it narrowly passes a cost benefit analysis. However I still wish for a cheaper way to have the ALP lose.
Fran – if the coalition winning is the price of the ALP losing then in my mind it narrowly passes a cost benefit analysis. However I still wish for a cheaper way to have the ALP lose.
Hope all you like Terje — you either agree to pay that price or you don’t. Handwaving and tears don’t count.
And part of the price is taking responsibility for all of the consequences — in this case all of the responsibility for everything that one can reasonably foresee Abbott doing. These harms will not merely have been done by him. They will have been done by all those who urged his election, like you.
Hope all you like Terje — you either agree to pay that price or you don’t. Handwaving and tears don’t count.
And part of the price is taking responsibility for all of the consequences — in this case all of the responsibility for everything that one can reasonably foresee Abbott doing. These harms will not merely have been done by him. They will have been done by all those who urged his election, like you.
Mr. Denmore @ 36 I’ve been following your insights on the MSM here with great interest so I find your comment that Rudd has ‘allowed beat-ups over the insulation scheme and the BER to dominate the news cycle’ somewhat surprising. My own sense, confirmed by your guest posts, is that Rudd and this government get short shrift in the media on most issues.
I sense too that Rudd as a comparative new boy is not generally liked amongst the ALP old guard, not one of the gang or any faction, and so I imagine lacking instinctive political expertise. That was a major part of his appeal to the electorate at large of course which with his intellect and other skills brought him to the leadership at the right time when the the country was ripe for change.
That said, I am still amazed from day to day by Caucus solidarity and team discipline. There is little or no public criticism of Rudd as PM from within the party. Chris Evans was quick to defend him against accusations of inner rage. Even comments like that of Garrett re the shelving of the ETS seems more about media abuse of what he said than an intention on his part to embarrass Rudd.
This is a good government which gets short shrift from the media. We hear too much about Conroy, not enough about Combet and Tanner. Rudd defensive lacks the appeal of his earlier expansiveness as a popular and newly elected leader and his every less than positive facial expression is exploited in film and print. Yet even now I often glimpse his openness with the public and his smiling ease with groups around the country which suggest he is coping well with all his negative press. How would you suggest he finds his way back to the popular persona the media once portrayed so regularly?
Mr. Denmore @ 36 I’ve been following your insights on the MSM here with great interest so I find your comment that Rudd has ‘allowed beat-ups over the insulation scheme and the BER to dominate the news cycle’ somewhat surprising. My own sense, confirmed by your guest posts, is that Rudd and this government get short shrift in the media on most issues.
I sense too that Rudd as a comparative new boy is not generally liked amongst the ALP old guard, not one of the gang or any faction, and so I imagine lacking instinctive political expertise. That was a major part of his appeal to the electorate at large of course which with his intellect and other skills brought him to the leadership at the right time when the the country was ripe for change.
That said, I am still amazed from day to day by Caucus solidarity and team discipline. There is little or no public criticism of Rudd as PM from within the party. Chris Evans was quick to defend him against accusations of inner rage. Even comments like that of Garrett re the shelving of the ETS seems more about media abuse of what he said than an intention on his part to embarrass Rudd.
This is a good government which gets short shrift from the media. We hear too much about Conroy, not enough about Combet and Tanner. Rudd defensive lacks the appeal of his earlier expansiveness as a popular and newly elected leader and his every less than positive facial expression is exploited in film and print. Yet even now I often glimpse his openness with the public and his smiling ease with groups around the country which suggest he is coping well with all his negative press. How would you suggest he finds his way back to the popular persona the media once portrayed so regularly?
I’m not at all surprised about the Green surge. It’s real, and it has precedent: Victoria in 2002.
Massive increase in the Green vote, as a reaction to conservative ALP government not living up to left-wing expectation.
Only difference this time is the ALP government isn’t really conservative, just calamitous.
The Coalition doesn’t need to explain Abbott – the die has been cast. On a personality level, he’s the anti-Rudd.
ALP win election easily if Rudd replaced with Gillard. Otherwise, anything could happen.
Let’s not forget polls looked bad for Howard in 1998 too. He got over the line. Government will have an advantage in the marginals.
I’m not at all surprised about the Green surge. It’s real, and it has precedent: Victoria in 2002.
Massive increase in the Green vote, as a reaction to conservative ALP government not living up to left-wing expectation.
Only difference this time is the ALP government isn’t really conservative, just calamitous.
The Coalition doesn’t need to explain Abbott – the die has been cast. On a personality level, he’s the anti-Rudd.
ALP win election easily if Rudd replaced with Gillard. Otherwise, anything could happen.
Let’s not forget polls looked bad for Howard in 1998 too. He got over the line. Government will have an advantage in the marginals.
It’s amazing how far things have come in such a short time. It seems only yesterday that the left-wing blogosphere was making shrill proclamations like
“The Liberal Party will never again win a federal election”
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/25/the-last-liberal/#comments
I guess we can excuse the hyperbole as the giddy rush that accompanied the defeat of the evil John Howard….. but still…..
The great thing about our political system is that it self-corrects back to a fairly central viewpoint. Howard moved too far right and got turfed, Rudd/Swann are attempting to introduce the most left-wing policy (RSPT) since Rex Connor’s days and may also get turfed.
It’s amazing how far things have come in such a short time. It seems only yesterday that the left-wing blogosphere was making shrill proclamations like
“The Liberal Party will never again win a federal election”
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/25/the-last-liberal/#comments
I guess we can excuse the hyperbole as the giddy rush that accompanied the defeat of the evil John Howard….. but still…..
The great thing about our political system is that it self-corrects back to a fairly central viewpoint. Howard moved too far right and got turfed, Rudd/Swann are attempting to introduce the most left-wing policy (RSPT) since Rex Connor’s days and may also get turfed.
That they do, Patricia. But Rudd’s media minders have helped the issues along by keeping them alive unnecessarily. The surest way to keep a story running is to keep feeding the media new angles – so your attempts to neutralise an issue morph into “gaffes” or “backflips”.
In media management, you also need a bit of luck. Now, I never would want to characterise September 11 as a “lucky” event for Howard, but it certainly helped him in casting his domestic political agenda in the election that year in national security terms.
Rudd has had rotten luck this year. Trying to sell the RSPT amid the onset of what looks to be GFC Mark II is a good example. The global ascendancy of the climate change denialist movement in the wake of Copenhagen also has worked against him. Previously, he was seen to be the right man in the right place at the right time in these international contexts.
There’s no doubt that when Abbott came into the Liberal leadership and reinvigorated the reactionary right of the party, the media sensed a context. That, together with the stumbling over climate change, robbed Rudd of momentum. From that point, the media smelt blood in the water and they have been relentless ever since. Every Labor stumble has been magnified and manipulated to fit the Dudd Rudd narrative, while Abbott has walked through the flames unsinged.
The good news is that the media WILL get bored with this narrative. With the polls now pointing to the very real possibility of an Abbott Coalition government, the media will sooner or later start pursuing Abbott over policy. And he will be found wanting.
As to your question about reviving Kevin 07, I think that is a lost cause. That was a particular moment in time when the electorate was sick to death of Howard and looking for an alternative. Rudd ran a slick campaign in which he minimised his differentation with the conservatives, while pledging a more fiscally responsibile government that dealt with long-standing unresolved issues like climate change and aboriginal reconcilliation.
The electorate now sees Rudd as just another politician. So there won’t be another Kevin 07. Maybe we’ll have 2010 GREEN Bottles?
That they do, Patricia. But Rudd’s media minders have helped the issues along by keeping them alive unnecessarily. The surest way to keep a story running is to keep feeding the media new angles – so your attempts to neutralise an issue morph into “gaffes” or “backflips”.
In media management, you also need a bit of luck. Now, I never would want to characterise September 11 as a “lucky” event for Howard, but it certainly helped him in casting his domestic political agenda in the election that year in national security terms.
Rudd has had rotten luck this year. Trying to sell the RSPT amid the onset of what looks to be GFC Mark II is a good example. The global ascendancy of the climate change denialist movement in the wake of Copenhagen also has worked against him. Previously, he was seen to be the right man in the right place at the right time in these international contexts.
There’s no doubt that when Abbott came into the Liberal leadership and reinvigorated the reactionary right of the party, the media sensed a context. That, together with the stumbling over climate change, robbed Rudd of momentum. From that point, the media smelt blood in the water and they have been relentless ever since. Every Labor stumble has been magnified and manipulated to fit the Dudd Rudd narrative, while Abbott has walked through the flames unsinged.
The good news is that the media WILL get bored with this narrative. With the polls now pointing to the very real possibility of an Abbott Coalition government, the media will sooner or later start pursuing Abbott over policy. And he will be found wanting.
As to your question about reviving Kevin 07, I think that is a lost cause. That was a particular moment in time when the electorate was sick to death of Howard and looking for an alternative. Rudd ran a slick campaign in which he minimised his differentation with the conservatives, while pledging a more fiscally responsibile government that dealt with long-standing unresolved issues like climate change and aboriginal reconcilliation.
The electorate now sees Rudd as just another politician. So there won’t be another Kevin 07. Maybe we’ll have 2010 GREEN Bottles?
Put down that kool-aid before you hurt yourself, Andrew.
Put down that kool-aid before you hurt yourself, Andrew.
Yeah, Andrew – you simply cannot arrive at those conclusions without being brainwashed.
Yeah, Andrew – you simply cannot arrive at those conclusions without being brainwashed.
Since Jack’s already here and we’re comparing our psephological packages: do you remember back when I made the comparison of Abbott to Mark Latham, and predicted that he’d get caned like a dusty carpet in spring?
I repeat that comparison, for emphasis, and point out that Latho led the 2PP and primary polls into the election too.
Harden the f&*k up, lefties.
Since Jack’s already here and we’re comparing our psephological packages: do you remember back when I made the comparison of Abbott to Mark Latham, and predicted that he’d get caned like a dusty carpet in spring?
I repeat that comparison, for emphasis, and point out that Latho led the 2PP and primary polls into the election too.
Harden the f&*k up, lefties.
What precisely is “left wing” about asking companies to pay for the natural resources we (not they) own?
Do right-wingers favour giving non-renewable assets away? Or letting them go on the cheap?
What precisely is “left wing” about asking companies to pay for the natural resources we (not they) own?
Do right-wingers favour giving non-renewable assets away? Or letting them go on the cheap?
I liked it then and I like it now, Liamista. And part of me believes you’re right. But the other part says that was against the old coconut. For all his faults, he was a known known.
People are still learning about Rudd. In this situation, I dont think its enough to sit back and trust MC Tones will bust his beatbox pulling one too many funky moves.
I liked it then and I like it now, Liamista. And part of me believes you’re right. But the other part says that was against the old coconut. For all his faults, he was a known known.
People are still learning about Rudd. In this situation, I dont think its enough to sit back and trust MC Tones will bust his beatbox pulling one too many funky moves.
Lefty E, No-one disputes that mining companies should pay for the use of our natural resources – and should certainly pay a high share of any so called ‘super profits’. But let’s be clear – the RSPT as proposed is not a super profits tax, it’s a government 40% equity share in all mining projects. The government is proposing to pay for 40% of the investment, take 40% of the profts and refund 40% of the losses.
If a project fails to make a profit – the government will need to refund the project sponsor for its share of the development cost, plus 40% of all the accumulated losses. For those companies with multiple projects they will be able to use the government refund as a tax offset. For single project companies, the government will need to write out a cheque. Can you imagine the public reaction when the Australian government has to write out a multi-billion dollar cheque to a foreign mining company which develops a failed mining project (and yes – that happens a lot!).
There is no way public capital should be invested in mining projects. As a taxpayer – I absolutely do not want my taxes being invested in the mining industry. My taxes should go towards paying for government services that cannot efficiently be provided by the private sector. The private sector is more than adequately equipped to finance mining.
For a further laugh (or cry) have a look at this exchange in the Senate Estimates -
SENATOR Eric Abetz: Is there sufficient accuracy in the modeling to accurately assess the impact at different RSPT rates of, let’s say, 30, 40 or 50 per cent?
Henry: An RSPT at the rate of 50 per cent would have no different economic impact from an RSPT at the rate of 40 per cent. There would be no different economic impact. It should not have an impact on the level of mining sector investment.
Senator Barnaby Joyce: That obviously means that we have to pose the question: if we took the rate to 70 per cent or 80 per cent, would that make a difference?
Henry: In concept it should not make a difference.
Joyce: Even if it went to 70 per cent or 80 per cent?
Henry: That is correct.
Joyce: What if it went to 100 per cent?
Henry: At 100 per cent we might find that the government had to finance all of the investment itself. I do not want to make too much of this, but other countries, take Norway, have managed to attract very substantial amounts of private capital investment while taking 95 per cent of the profits.
Run that by me again about the RSPT not being left-wing?
Lefty E, No-one disputes that mining companies should pay for the use of our natural resources – and should certainly pay a high share of any so called ‘super profits’. But let’s be clear – the RSPT as proposed is not a super profits tax, it’s a government 40% equity share in all mining projects. The government is proposing to pay for 40% of the investment, take 40% of the profts and refund 40% of the losses.
If a project fails to make a profit – the government will need to refund the project sponsor for its share of the development cost, plus 40% of all the accumulated losses. For those companies with multiple projects they will be able to use the government refund as a tax offset. For single project companies, the government will need to write out a cheque. Can you imagine the public reaction when the Australian government has to write out a multi-billion dollar cheque to a foreign mining company which develops a failed mining project (and yes – that happens a lot!).
There is no way public capital should be invested in mining projects. As a taxpayer – I absolutely do not want my taxes being invested in the mining industry. My taxes should go towards paying for government services that cannot efficiently be provided by the private sector. The private sector is more than adequately equipped to finance mining.
For a further laugh (or cry) have a look at this exchange in the Senate Estimates -
SENATOR Eric Abetz: Is there sufficient accuracy in the modeling to accurately assess the impact at different RSPT rates of, let’s say, 30, 40 or 50 per cent?
Henry: An RSPT at the rate of 50 per cent would have no different economic impact from an RSPT at the rate of 40 per cent. There would be no different economic impact. It should not have an impact on the level of mining sector investment.
Senator Barnaby Joyce: That obviously means that we have to pose the question: if we took the rate to 70 per cent or 80 per cent, would that make a difference?
Henry: In concept it should not make a difference.
Joyce: Even if it went to 70 per cent or 80 per cent?
Henry: That is correct.
Joyce: What if it went to 100 per cent?
Henry: At 100 per cent we might find that the government had to finance all of the investment itself. I do not want to make too much of this, but other countries, take Norway, have managed to attract very substantial amounts of private capital investment while taking 95 per cent of the profits.
Run that by me again about the RSPT not being left-wing?
It is pretty neat seeing Howard C@57 speculate….
“Massive increase in the Green vote, as a reaction to conservative ALP government not living up to left-wing expectation.”
Followed by immediate words of wisdom from Andrew@58….
“Rudd/Swann are attempting to introduce the most left-wing policy (RSPT) since Rex Connor’s days and may also get turfed.”
Labor and Rudd are called, from the right, for being being far too right and far too left within seconds. I think the Abbott Army are applying the pincer movement.
It is pretty neat seeing Howard C@57 speculate….
“Massive increase in the Green vote, as a reaction to conservative ALP government not living up to left-wing expectation.”
Followed by immediate words of wisdom from Andrew@58….
“Rudd/Swann are attempting to introduce the most left-wing policy (RSPT) since Rex Connor’s days and may also get turfed.”
Labor and Rudd are called, from the right, for being being far too right and far too left within seconds. I think the Abbott Army are applying the pincer movement.
Rudd needs one short, succinct message to hammer home.
Try this;
As an Australian citizen do you want the taxation regime of your country decided by;
A.
The democratically elected Government of this country
or
B.
The boardrooms of international mining conglomerates who aren’t paying their far share already?
The choice is yours.
Rudd needs one short, succinct message to hammer home.
Try this;
As an Australian citizen do you want the taxation regime of your country decided by;
A.
The democratically elected Government of this country
or
B.
The boardrooms of international mining conglomerates who aren’t paying their far share already?
The choice is yours.
Fran – on your logic you are responsible for everything that Rudd has done. However lucky for you I don’t accept your logic. Voters are not responsible for the evils of the lesser evil.
Fran – on your logic you are responsible for everything that Rudd has done. However lucky for you I don’t accept your logic. Voters are not responsible for the evils of the lesser evil.
Terje
I am not advocating a vote to the ALP. What others decide to do is a matter for them.
I merely draw attention to the relevant data, as I see it.
Terje
I am not advocating a vote to the ALP. What others decide to do is a matter for them.
I merely draw attention to the relevant data, as I see it.
I hope you’re right Liam.
I hope you’re right Liam.
The ALP has winning policies but they have tricked up losing programs.
Who’s to blame for that?
The ALP has winning policies but they have tricked up losing programs.
Who’s to blame for that?
Lefty E @10
Your shopping list of things that Kevin Rudd should do would be fine if the man had any common sense (though maybe he wouldn’t be in this predicament if he did). But from what I’ve seen so far is at least ever since his government brilliantly managed the GFC is a man with his head up so far up his arse that he is not looking where he is going. He seems to think he is so brilliant that he does not have to explain anything to the Australian public.
For instance, what have we heard about the withdrawal of his government’s policy on Global Warming Thingy? Zilch, Nada, Absolutely Nothing! Howard (aka Macchiavelli) in the same place would have blamed his policy withdrawal on the opposition and be making that loud and clear. But all we get from Rudd is this deafening, baffling silence. Does this man have social problems? Even now he is just hanging his head and emitting sounds about his government standing for health policies – health policies? Excuse me, but doesn’t he know that most of his disaffected voters are going to the Greens vegie patch? I give up!
Lefty E @10
Your shopping list of things that Kevin Rudd should do would be fine if the man had any common sense (though maybe he wouldn’t be in this predicament if he did). But from what I’ve seen so far is at least ever since his government brilliantly managed the GFC is a man with his head up so far up his arse that he is not looking where he is going. He seems to think he is so brilliant that he does not have to explain anything to the Australian public.
For instance, what have we heard about the withdrawal of his government’s policy on Global Warming Thingy? Zilch, Nada, Absolutely Nothing! Howard (aka Macchiavelli) in the same place would have blamed his policy withdrawal on the opposition and be making that loud and clear. But all we get from Rudd is this deafening, baffling silence. Does this man have social problems? Even now he is just hanging his head and emitting sounds about his government standing for health policies – health policies? Excuse me, but doesn’t he know that most of his disaffected voters are going to the Greens vegie patch? I give up!
Does anyone here actually like Rudd? I don’t. I can’t watch him anymore, I have to change channels. I think that’s what this poll is tapping into, a growing dislike of Rudd, his maddening waffle, his verbosity, his artificiality. Jesus mate, just say what you mean for once!
However, when the idea of an Abbott government becomes a real possibility, the punters will hold their nose and vote for Rudd, wishing there was an alternative. Turnbull would be a real chance in this environment.
Its really, really gratifying to see the Greens polling so well. Lets hope they give some ALP members a real shake in inner city Sydney or Melbourne.
Does anyone here actually like Rudd? I don’t. I can’t watch him anymore, I have to change channels. I think that’s what this poll is tapping into, a growing dislike of Rudd, his maddening waffle, his verbosity, his artificiality. Jesus mate, just say what you mean for once!
However, when the idea of an Abbott government becomes a real possibility, the punters will hold their nose and vote for Rudd, wishing there was an alternative. Turnbull would be a real chance in this environment.
Its really, really gratifying to see the Greens polling so well. Lets hope they give some ALP members a real shake in inner city Sydney or Melbourne.
I’ve been expecting this. Anyone remember my rants against Rudd just after he was elected?
Boy was I unpopular here and with quite a few friends for a while (picked Obahma straight away as well, had a friend who wouldn’t talk to me for 6 months). But I just looked at the details in the first budget, dividend withholding tax cut, cuts to CSIRO, etc, etc.
I had simply picked up very quickly that he was basically a John Howard type with less bushy eyebrows.
And, a bit later than me, many voters are just as disillusioned, with a Govt that promised so much that would be different and has delivered so little. Well to us. The BCA got their beloved population growth, big coal got rid of any (even token) alternative energy, big finance got bigger (and bailed out by us), et al.
Basically if we are going to have Liberal Govt, then lets have a real one. Heck lets all vote Liberal next election just on the basis of honesty. At least we can all honestly hate them and hold onto the the psychologically comforting illusion of “if only Labor was in power it would all be better”. We would all be far happier.
Strategically he tried to ‘do a Bliar’(sic deliberate), talk left do right. Trouble is that Bliar was consumate, charismatic, narcissistic liar, so he got away with it for ages, god that man could lie so passionately and convincingly.
Rudd is as charismatic as my washing machine. Everytime he talks I start thinking about ear wax and cutting my nose hair. Nothing wrong with that if he was competent, but he’s not even that.
Economics: std text book neo-liberal, RBA*, Treasury line. All for finance and mining but shut down manufacturing (this has been official Treasury policy since Fraser). Rapid population growth, privatise everything, cut wages (except CEOs), the usual sort of stuff.
Environment: well actually worse than Howard. Howard would have at least got up something on carbon, it would have been deliberately totally ineffectual of course(but so was the proposed scheme), but it would have been something. Heck at least we would still get rebates for solar panels.
Industrial Relations: still illegal to strike in Australia, in defiance of international law. No Workchoices was not scrapped, just made more workable (the Liberal one would have collapsed in a screaming heap after a couple of years), but the philospohy is exactly the same.
Aborigines: exactly the same policy as Howard.
Transport, innovation, science, etc? No differences. Answers: roads, none and none.
War: all the way with LBJ. We are just so much better at hiding our casulties than the poms and sceptics.
Tax: Thanks for the regressive, cpi raising, ciggie tax increase .. not. Then the total botch of what should be a simple straightforward Resources Rent Tax.
As I said, as long as Labor pretends to be the Liberal party, then I’ll vote for the real thing.
Admittedly I’ll do it Greens first with preferences to Liberals, just to send them a very clear message.
*For a laugh read this from the RBA in Dec 2006, just before the GFC. http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2006/2006-12.html
“Yes Gretel, these dunderheads really are in power”.
I’ve been expecting this. Anyone remember my rants against Rudd just after he was elected?
Boy was I unpopular here and with quite a few friends for a while (picked Obahma straight away as well, had a friend who wouldn’t talk to me for 6 months). But I just looked at the details in the first budget, dividend withholding tax cut, cuts to CSIRO, etc, etc.
I had simply picked up very quickly that he was basically a John Howard type with less bushy eyebrows.
And, a bit later than me, many voters are just as disillusioned, with a Govt that promised so much that would be different and has delivered so little. Well to us. The BCA got their beloved population growth, big coal got rid of any (even token) alternative energy, big finance got bigger (and bailed out by us), et al.
Basically if we are going to have Liberal Govt, then lets have a real one. Heck lets all vote Liberal next election just on the basis of honesty. At least we can all honestly hate them and hold onto the the psychologically comforting illusion of “if only Labor was in power it would all be better”. We would all be far happier.
Strategically he tried to ‘do a Bliar’(sic deliberate), talk left do right. Trouble is that Bliar was consumate, charismatic, narcissistic liar, so he got away with it for ages, god that man could lie so passionately and convincingly.
Rudd is as charismatic as my washing machine. Everytime he talks I start thinking about ear wax and cutting my nose hair. Nothing wrong with that if he was competent, but he’s not even that.
Economics: std text book neo-liberal, RBA*, Treasury line. All for finance and mining but shut down manufacturing (this has been official Treasury policy since Fraser). Rapid population growth, privatise everything, cut wages (except CEOs), the usual sort of stuff.
Environment: well actually worse than Howard. Howard would have at least got up something on carbon, it would have been deliberately totally ineffectual of course(but so was the proposed scheme), but it would have been something. Heck at least we would still get rebates for solar panels.
Industrial Relations: still illegal to strike in Australia, in defiance of international law. No Workchoices was not scrapped, just made more workable (the Liberal one would have collapsed in a screaming heap after a couple of years), but the philospohy is exactly the same.
Aborigines: exactly the same policy as Howard.
Transport, innovation, science, etc? No differences. Answers: roads, none and none.
War: all the way with LBJ. We are just so much better at hiding our casulties than the poms and sceptics.
Tax: Thanks for the regressive, cpi raising, ciggie tax increase .. not. Then the total botch of what should be a simple straightforward Resources Rent Tax.
As I said, as long as Labor pretends to be the Liberal party, then I’ll vote for the real thing.
Admittedly I’ll do it Greens first with preferences to Liberals, just to send them a very clear message.
*For a laugh read this from the RBA in Dec 2006, just before the GFC. http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2006/2006-12.html
“Yes Gretel, these dunderheads really are in power”.
Oh FFS Megan, cut out the moronic hyperbole. You may think it’s amusing but it isn’t. You’ll have plenty of opportunity to vent if abbott gets in.
I’ve heard Rudd many times on the ‘Global Warming Thingy’ – never gets reported in the press or TV unless there’s a negative aspect to it. If a tree falls in the forest…
Oh FFS Megan, cut out the moronic hyperbole. You may think it’s amusing but it isn’t. You’ll have plenty of opportunity to vent if abbott gets in.
I’ve heard Rudd many times on the ‘Global Warming Thingy’ – never gets reported in the press or TV unless there’s a negative aspect to it. If a tree falls in the forest…
carbonsink@73: “However, when the idea of an Abbott government becomes a real possibility, the punters will hold their nose and vote for Rudd, wishing there was an alternative. Turnbull would be a real chance in this environment.
That’s Tony’s problem admittedly. I think that his line needs to be around the three distinguishing marks of the left: lack of personal responsibility, the need to “feel” that something is being done, and the need to control the behaviour of others. Tony needs to clearly enunciate to the electorate how shifting their votes from the ALP to the Greens actually makes the problem worse!
carbonsink@73: “However, when the idea of an Abbott government becomes a real possibility, the punters will hold their nose and vote for Rudd, wishing there was an alternative. Turnbull would be a real chance in this environment.
That’s Tony’s problem admittedly. I think that his line needs to be around the three distinguishing marks of the left: lack of personal responsibility, the need to “feel” that something is being done, and the need to control the behaviour of others. Tony needs to clearly enunciate to the electorate how shifting their votes from the ALP to the Greens actually makes the problem worse!
We have elected a prime minister who has started to believe that he rules by some kind of antipodean noblesse oblige. Hence his arcane ways of expressing himself to the electorate, the concentration of power to the Dep of PM & C, the lack of consultation, the bizarre gernment by ukaze, the constant blackmail of Labor voters (hey, guess what – vote for me, like me or not, or you get Abbott, which will be worse), plus the unrelenting and obsessive/neurotic micromanagement of all policy.
Abbott and his advisers have twigged to this very unattractive aspect of Rudd’s narcissistic-authoritarian personality (and about which Mark Latham has presciently warned) and have cut their campaign to suit. This is why Abbott has emphasised his own “authenticity” to contrast with Rudd’s phony, mealymouthed synthetically manufactured persona.
If Rudd loses this election because he so pisses people off that they will vote against the ALP because the penny has now dropped that he is a flake, it will mean that the Big End of Town will return to its rightful place at the head of the table. Kim Beazley too was right when he commented that Rudd does not believe in anything; sadly this too has become plainly apparent as Kevin has jettisoned principle after principle.
There is a good chance that the electorate will ridd itself of an irritant first before it starts to look for policy comparison between parties. I mean, with Rudd, how would we know what policy or principle the ALP stands for? Grim times ahead, I am afraid.
We have elected a prime minister who has started to believe that he rules by some kind of antipodean noblesse oblige. Hence his arcane ways of expressing himself to the electorate, the concentration of power to the Dep of PM & C, the lack of consultation, the bizarre gernment by ukaze, the constant blackmail of Labor voters (hey, guess what – vote for me, like me or not, or you get Abbott, which will be worse), plus the unrelenting and obsessive/neurotic micromanagement of all policy.
Abbott and his advisers have twigged to this very unattractive aspect of Rudd’s narcissistic-authoritarian personality (and about which Mark Latham has presciently warned) and have cut their campaign to suit. This is why Abbott has emphasised his own “authenticity” to contrast with Rudd’s phony, mealymouthed synthetically manufactured persona.
If Rudd loses this election because he so pisses people off that they will vote against the ALP because the penny has now dropped that he is a flake, it will mean that the Big End of Town will return to its rightful place at the head of the table. Kim Beazley too was right when he commented that Rudd does not believe in anything; sadly this too has become plainly apparent as Kevin has jettisoned principle after principle.
There is a good chance that the electorate will ridd itself of an irritant first before it starts to look for policy comparison between parties. I mean, with Rudd, how would we know what policy or principle the ALP stands for? Grim times ahead, I am afraid.
Adrian@75
Sorry if my ‘moronic hyperbole’ offended you, but I am just exasperated. To be fair, I agree with you about the Press selectively reporting things about Rudd especially considering the hysterical loathing campaign the Murdoch press is raining on the Labor government. But actually, a media tart like Rudd should be very well versed in the art of making himself heard as well as seen. After all he deployed his exhibitionism very smartly and strategically in the Kevin07 campaign, so he can do it. I’m just saying that if he had a clear alternative policy on global warming surely he would be damn well making himself heard. A few press conferences, a decisive statement, a few swipes at the Opposition anything…
PS: I do not have anything against tarts and exhibitionists.
Adrian@75
Sorry if my ‘moronic hyperbole’ offended you, but I am just exasperated. To be fair, I agree with you about the Press selectively reporting things about Rudd especially considering the hysterical loathing campaign the Murdoch press is raining on the Labor government. But actually, a media tart like Rudd should be very well versed in the art of making himself heard as well as seen. After all he deployed his exhibitionism very smartly and strategically in the Kevin07 campaign, so he can do it. I’m just saying that if he had a clear alternative policy on global warming surely he would be damn well making himself heard. A few press conferences, a decisive statement, a few swipes at the Opposition anything…
PS: I do not have anything against tarts and exhibitionists.
Goodness me, now the firstest bestest friend of the one trick phoney has decided to banner their commentary on the latest poll results with “Low Blow”. How am I supposed to read this? Is it a reference to the re-enactment of ToM Roberts classic painting? Apparently not, because the ABC did not even give this a mention.
So then I have to ask meself what does this “Low Blow” mean, and I figures it means that the evil Labor Party have had the temerity to speak the truth, that if voting patterns as per the poll today continue the one trick phoney will be the PM.
So now I know, if Labor tells the truth it is a low blow to the one trick phoney, but if he denigrates and abuses the PM of this country it is what? OK apparently.Shame ABC,shame.
Goodness me, now the firstest bestest friend of the one trick phoney has decided to banner their commentary on the latest poll results with “Low Blow”. How am I supposed to read this? Is it a reference to the re-enactment of ToM Roberts classic painting? Apparently not, because the ABC did not even give this a mention.
So then I have to ask meself what does this “Low Blow” mean, and I figures it means that the evil Labor Party have had the temerity to speak the truth, that if voting patterns as per the poll today continue the one trick phoney will be the PM.
So now I know, if Labor tells the truth it is a low blow to the one trick phoney, but if he denigrates and abuses the PM of this country it is what? OK apparently.Shame ABC,shame.
Like Carbonsink I never could stand Kevin Rudd so I never could understand why he was apparently so popular with the masses. To we, who are interested in policy, he presented himself and Wong et al. as a team of policy geniuses. So now we can judge – and as far as I can see there’s hardly been a policy that hasn’t been badly flawed, poorly implemented and dreadfully explained.
They will probably say the ‘education revolution’ has been a great success, but remember the attempt to give students computers where the schools didn’t have the funds for necessary accompanying infrastructure?
Foreign affairs has been a shocker – their defence white paper, the poor handling of the relationship with China.
I won’t go on, but with the neoliberal CPRS policy, Rudd and Wong should have remembered the advice of a predecessor “if you don’t understand it, don’t vote for it”
Like Carbonsink I never could stand Kevin Rudd so I never could understand why he was apparently so popular with the masses. To we, who are interested in policy, he presented himself and Wong et al. as a team of policy geniuses. So now we can judge – and as far as I can see there’s hardly been a policy that hasn’t been badly flawed, poorly implemented and dreadfully explained.
They will probably say the ‘education revolution’ has been a great success, but remember the attempt to give students computers where the schools didn’t have the funds for necessary accompanying infrastructure?
Foreign affairs has been a shocker – their defence white paper, the poor handling of the relationship with China.
I won’t go on, but with the neoliberal CPRS policy, Rudd and Wong should have remembered the advice of a predecessor “if you don’t understand it, don’t vote for it”
With panic in the blogosphere, the acrid waft of smoldering roof insulation in the streets, and that high-pitched ‘ni ni ni’ sound emitted by well-groomed nincompoops in the MSM at the prospect of blood, I decided it was time to visit Sportingbet and reinvest my winnings from the last election.
To my disappointment I found this:
ALP 1.47 Coalition 2.60
I look forward to the “betting markets as oracle” meme being dusted off by the MSM – at a time of their own convenience of course!
With panic in the blogosphere, the acrid waft of smoldering roof insulation in the streets, and that high-pitched ‘ni ni ni’ sound emitted by well-groomed nincompoops in the MSM at the prospect of blood, I decided it was time to visit Sportingbet and reinvest my winnings from the last election.
To my disappointment I found this:
ALP 1.47 Coalition 2.60
I look forward to the “betting markets as oracle” meme being dusted off by the MSM – at a time of their own convenience of course!
I dont think Rudd’s a phoney myself – (I know someone who worked closely with him in DFAT in China – they believes he genuinely agonised a lot over whether he’s does enough to meet his ethical principles) but he IS obsessed with appearance management – and that can, and often does, appear inauthentic.
For example, hiding the good work he’s done on social housing suggests a man not wanting to make waves. Scared of sticking his head up in case the notional median punter doesn’t approve.
Whereas the Great PMs create a new median punter. Not from scratch – of course, but by taking said punter as far as they can go in the direction of an articulated social vision.
Rudd is a public service policy statement of a pollie – some sweat and inspiration went into it – but the outcome is designed neither to offend, nor be pinned down, nor be breached if there’s no follow through.
I dont think Rudd’s a phoney myself – (I know someone who worked closely with him in DFAT in China – they believes he genuinely agonised a lot over whether he’s does enough to meet his ethical principles) but he IS obsessed with appearance management – and that can, and often does, appear inauthentic.
For example, hiding the good work he’s done on social housing suggests a man not wanting to make waves. Scared of sticking his head up in case the notional median punter doesn’t approve.
Whereas the Great PMs create a new median punter. Not from scratch – of course, but by taking said punter as far as they can go in the direction of an articulated social vision.
Rudd is a public service policy statement of a pollie – some sweat and inspiration went into it – but the outcome is designed neither to offend, nor be pinned down, nor be breached if there’s no follow through.
… a manager, not a leader.
So I just heard Clive Hamilton say. (I’m spending the evening catching up on video talks on Slow TV)
… a manager, not a leader.
So I just heard Clive Hamilton say. (I’m spending the evening catching up on video talks on Slow TV)
Perspective, people. Please.
The chance of Abbott winning the election is minute. Once election time comes around, there will be a lot of people who suddenly discover Abbott’s erratic behavior, and behold his mediocrity of a front bench. Recognition will not be a pleasant experience. Rudd’s going to lose seats – he can write off West Australia and Northern Queensland. But does it matter?
What really matters is: after the next election, Rudd gets a bare majority, and Greens are the sole holder of the balance of power in the Senate. That’s what I was expecting before his immense drop in popularity, and that’s still what I expect. It didn’t matter if Rudd won 100 or 76 or whatever HoR seats. In almost any scenario, he’d have to deal with the Greens. Or Greens + Xenophon.
And (cue theme from Psycho) what if Abbott wins? He still has to deal with the Greens. There’s going to be no repeat of 2004, where the Coalition gets a majority in the senate. The Greens are gaining at the expense of both the major parties, and may gain even more.
If Abbott wins, there’s going to be some odious legislation coming down the pipeline. What are they going to do? Support it? Then look at the Democrats – a party whose death originated in Meg Lees’s decision to support the GST. Or block it – twice? Well, what do the Greens have to lose. If the legislation is that odious, the Greens will do well in any resulting double dissolution election.
Now, if you are looking at a leader truly on the nose, look at Anna Bligh – truly dead and floating in electoral terms. And she hasn’t yet even voted for asset privatisation. Rudd can recover, and I believe he will recover.
As Liam says – harden up.
Perspective, people. Please.
The chance of Abbott winning the election is minute. Once election time comes around, there will be a lot of people who suddenly discover Abbott’s erratic behavior, and behold his mediocrity of a front bench. Recognition will not be a pleasant experience. Rudd’s going to lose seats – he can write off West Australia and Northern Queensland. But does it matter?
What really matters is: after the next election, Rudd gets a bare majority, and Greens are the sole holder of the balance of power in the Senate. That’s what I was expecting before his immense drop in popularity, and that’s still what I expect. It didn’t matter if Rudd won 100 or 76 or whatever HoR seats. In almost any scenario, he’d have to deal with the Greens. Or Greens + Xenophon.
And (cue theme from Psycho) what if Abbott wins? He still has to deal with the Greens. There’s going to be no repeat of 2004, where the Coalition gets a majority in the senate. The Greens are gaining at the expense of both the major parties, and may gain even more.
If Abbott wins, there’s going to be some odious legislation coming down the pipeline. What are they going to do? Support it? Then look at the Democrats – a party whose death originated in Meg Lees’s decision to support the GST. Or block it – twice? Well, what do the Greens have to lose. If the legislation is that odious, the Greens will do well in any resulting double dissolution election.
Now, if you are looking at a leader truly on the nose, look at Anna Bligh – truly dead and floating in electoral terms. And she hasn’t yet even voted for asset privatisation. Rudd can recover, and I believe he will recover.
As Liam says – harden up.
Well, I have to admit I was beginning to freak when I saw that The Age & Michelle Grattan had morphed into The Oz and Shannahannalongadingdong in there reporting of this story. Yet I recovered my composure when I found this little tidbit in their lead: “Mr Rudd’s net approval is minus 11, the lowest for a prime minister since May 2001.”
Anway, long story short, the Coalition are currently coasting on a series of unprecedented political victories, they haven’t been asked for anything even resembling a manifesto other than “we oppose whatever big thing Rudd does”, and they have serious structural problems in their leadership to boot.
And I mean serious. If they believe Abbott is a good unity leader for the centre-Right in this country then they have rocks in their heads. The Libs should really, really consider whether they want Abbott’s blinkered model of European Christian democracy to run roughshod over the 49% of the party that thought Turnbull was at least capable of genuflecting to, and building on, the salad days of ’96 thru ’07. And I’m mean this regardless of whether they lose or win this year’s election.
Tell me, Howard, does your gaming out of the situation automatically assume (hope for) that the ALP, win lose or draw, will not be able to repeat the basic political stability it enjoyed in both federal government and Opposition during the Keating and Beazley decade?
The Monk automatically adopting a rocksteady form of leadership that Rudd is unwilling or unable to exercise? There’s no reason not to aspire to that, I suppose. Though I wouldn’t count on it happenning.
Well, I have to admit I was beginning to freak when I saw that The Age & Michelle Grattan had morphed into The Oz and Shannahannalongadingdong in there reporting of this story. Yet I recovered my composure when I found this little tidbit in their lead: “Mr Rudd’s net approval is minus 11, the lowest for a prime minister since May 2001.”
Anway, long story short, the Coalition are currently coasting on a series of unprecedented political victories, they haven’t been asked for anything even resembling a manifesto other than “we oppose whatever big thing Rudd does”, and they have serious structural problems in their leadership to boot.
And I mean serious. If they believe Abbott is a good unity leader for the centre-Right in this country then they have rocks in their heads. The Libs should really, really consider whether they want Abbott’s blinkered model of European Christian democracy to run roughshod over the 49% of the party that thought Turnbull was at least capable of genuflecting to, and building on, the salad days of ’96 thru ’07. And I’m mean this regardless of whether they lose or win this year’s election.
Tell me, Howard, does your gaming out of the situation automatically assume (hope for) that the ALP, win lose or draw, will not be able to repeat the basic political stability it enjoyed in both federal government and Opposition during the Keating and Beazley decade?
The Monk automatically adopting a rocksteady form of leadership that Rudd is unwilling or unable to exercise? There’s no reason not to aspire to that, I suppose. Though I wouldn’t count on it happenning.
Joe2 @ 66 – yeah, we’re in cahoots! I think you’ll find reviewing both of our posts will reflect that Andrew and I are on different parts of our half of the political spectrum.
Nickws – it’s perfectly clear that the ALP’s problem at the moment is Rudd, exacerbated by the fact he’s running against his polar opposite, a man who, on a personality level, more mortgage belt Aussies can relate to than Rudd himself. That dynamic is completely removed if Rudd is replaced with Gillard, who already frustrates and defeats Abbott every Friday morning.
Abbott is done if he doesn’t win.
No great period of destabilisation waiting the ALP – they only need to make one move.
Joe2 @ 66 – yeah, we’re in cahoots! I think you’ll find reviewing both of our posts will reflect that Andrew and I are on different parts of our half of the political spectrum.
Nickws – it’s perfectly clear that the ALP’s problem at the moment is Rudd, exacerbated by the fact he’s running against his polar opposite, a man who, on a personality level, more mortgage belt Aussies can relate to than Rudd himself. That dynamic is completely removed if Rudd is replaced with Gillard, who already frustrates and defeats Abbott every Friday morning.
Abbott is done if he doesn’t win.
No great period of destabilisation waiting the ALP – they only need to make one move.
Rudds argument that Abbott equals workchoices coming back again is easily countered by the fact that the Liberals will not control the senate. Every Liberal reform would need to satisfy either the Greens or the ALP. Neither of which supports workchoices.
Rudds argument that Abbott equals workchoices coming back again is easily countered by the fact that the Liberals will not control the senate. Every Liberal reform would need to satisfy either the Greens or the ALP. Neither of which supports workchoices.
True enough Terje, but of course, a vote for Abbott would still be a vote for the idea of Workchoices. That is how it would be read. If you want to kill the idea you must kill its proponent’s career in government.
True enough Terje, but of course, a vote for Abbott would still be a vote for the idea of Workchoices. That is how it would be read. If you want to kill the idea you must kill its proponent’s career in government.
Fran – you can’t and won’t kill the idea of a deregulated or less regulated labour market. Even if that were the only objective that mattered to you as a voter. It is utopian (or perhaps vain) to think that ideas you dislike can be purged from the body politic.
Fran – you can’t and won’t kill the idea of a deregulated or less regulated labour market. Even if that were the only objective that mattered to you as a voter. It is utopian (or perhaps vain) to think that ideas you dislike can be purged from the body politic.
Well the most deregulated labor market idea: slavery — was purged from the body politic in most countries. These days deregulation has to be contrasted with slavery to get political traction. The closer it gets, the less politically plausible it is. The name Workchoices reflected this reality.
People were held not to be slaves if they could be presented as choosing to be more intensively exploited. Typically, an extra 10 cents per hour was tossed in to meet the formalities implied by the semantics. In legal terms this is called consideration and it makes it look more kosher.
Most people of course saw right through this shoddy facade.
Well the most deregulated labor market idea: slavery — was purged from the body politic in most countries. These days deregulation has to be contrasted with slavery to get political traction. The closer it gets, the less politically plausible it is. The name Workchoices reflected this reality.
People were held not to be slaves if they could be presented as choosing to be more intensively exploited. Typically, an extra 10 cents per hour was tossed in to meet the formalities implied by the semantics. In legal terms this is called consideration and it makes it look more kosher.
Most people of course saw right through this shoddy facade.
The media have been telling the people for six months or more to hate Kevin Rudd. So I’m not surprised the people are yielding to this conditioning.
The media have done such a job on Rudd that it’s a disgrace. They’d better be just as relentless on every future PM, of whatever political stripe, or they will never live it down.
The media have been telling the people for six months or more to hate Kevin Rudd. So I’m not surprised the people are yielding to this conditioning.
The media have done such a job on Rudd that it’s a disgrace. They’d better be just as relentless on every future PM, of whatever political stripe, or they will never live it down.
The point that slavery was purged thoroughly and rightly holds, but Fran, slavery (in the US) was one of the most highly regulated industrial systems the world has ever seen. It requried a vast system of racial law and custom to maintain it, through huge effort, expense and violence. When it comes to the antebellum South I hope we’re all libertarians.
The point that slavery was purged thoroughly and rightly holds, but Fran, slavery (in the US) was one of the most highly regulated industrial systems the world has ever seen. It requried a vast system of racial law and custom to maintain it, through huge effort, expense and violence. When it comes to the antebellum South I hope we’re all libertarians.
That should ensure David Marr is kept busy analysing the childhood road to adult masochism of the incumbent and all prospective candidates for P.M., going forward* , Cuppa.
What a good idea.
tm*
That should ensure David Marr is kept busy analysing the childhood road to adult masochism of the incumbent and all prospective candidates for P.M., going forward* , Cuppa.
What a good idea.
tm*
That’s fair comment Liam — which just goes to show how incoherent are demands for “labour market deregulation”. All iterations favour some form or other of regulation. The principal differences lie in answering the cui bono questions.
That’s fair comment Liam — which just goes to show how incoherent are demands for “labour market deregulation”. All iterations favour some form or other of regulation. The principal differences lie in answering the cui bono questions.
Joe, David Marr is the least of Kevin Rudd’s media worries.
Joe, David Marr is the least of Kevin Rudd’s media worries.
And following from that comment, to follow the different strands of modern American libertarianism—Andrew Jackson libertarianism, Ayn Rand libertarianism, Rothbardian libertarianism and so on—I suggest we add “John Brown libertarianism”. Which I would be proud to subscribe to.
And following from that comment, to follow the different strands of modern American libertarianism—Andrew Jackson libertarianism, Ayn Rand libertarianism, Rothbardian libertarianism and so on—I suggest we add “John Brown libertarianism”. Which I would be proud to subscribe to.
At our Greens branch meeting last night (more accurately while we were having a beer afterwards), one of our members was pointing out that The Australian is more relentlessly partisan than it’s been since Whitlam’s last days.
At our Greens branch meeting last night (more accurately while we were having a beer afterwards), one of our members was pointing out that The Australian is more relentlessly partisan than it’s been since Whitlam’s last days.
‘The Australian’ is no more partisan than the ABC is these days.
‘The Australian’ is no more partisan than the ABC is these days.