Please keep the general election campaign talk (breaking news etc) on these Election Open Threads, and keep discussions on the other posts focussed on the topic presented by the author.
N.B. Off topic posts in other threads are liable to be summarily deleted at the discretion of the moderators.
I’m waiting for Richo to predict the outcome. Love him or hate him he gets the numbers right.
I’m guessing it will be “Labor to pick up 5 more seats”.
Week 1 to Gillard. Week 2 to Abbott so far, but more because of Labor’s shenanigans than anything he’s actually done.
I’m guessing Richo will say “Abbott to win by a landslide.”
I literally can’t see a way for the Liberals to lose now.
I’m waiting to see what, if anything, Abbott’s proposed crackdown on the dole does to his polling. Also I saw the NSW Nurses Assoc. ad last night, for the first time, in support of the Gillard Govt. Nice to see someone come out in support, for the very good reason that her govt (and presumably under Rudd too) has supported an increase in funding for nurses.
For Julia’s press conference a rightly angry return to pre-election campaign passion and steely resolve.
Now for Tony’s explanation of why he chose to support the illegal war in Iraq during the Howard years since the decisions of the past are so important.
@tssk, “I literally can’t see a way for the Liberals to lose now.”
Are you serious? Have you actually read an opinion poll since this election started? Have you spoken to any women?
The average person doesn’t make up their mind how to vote based on what Laurie Oakes says someone told him that someone else told him that a third party said in cabinet, they’re not listening to crap like that. Abbott’s approval ratings and preferred PM ratings are ridiculously low, Labor’s still ahead on the 2PP, how on earth are you claiming you can’t see a way for the Liberals to lose?
rebekka @6,
I agree with you, but the election has a few weeks to go yet. If this internal Labor Party destabilisation continue, and becames the main election story, Labor could be in trouble. I’m beginning to have an uneasy feeling about this election’s possible outcome/
Half the women I know think Tony is a jerk and will be voting for Julia. The other half think he’s a jerk and will be voting Greens or informal. The only hope for the ALP is to form a Coalition with the Greens I reckon.
A few are voting according to advice from their husband
Pay attention to Rebekka, tssk. Gut feeling’s all very well, but not as good as gut feeling back by statistics – and Possum gives you lots of statistic to ponder.
My gut feeling is that many people my side of the country are thinking “Oooh, shiny new train to Redcliffe!” Quickly followed by “Waitaminute… hasn’t this been promised already? Like five or so times in the last 10 years?” I doubt they’ll spare much time musing over leaks and leakers.
If the ALP is tracking so well why on earth is the ALP trying to look like the Libs? To the point where we have Penny Wong agreeing that gay marriage is not desirable.
Can anyone answer me that?
@4 –
Yep, Mindy, Queensland Nurses Union ads on tv here last night too.
@ tssk, what Penny Wong is gay so she must believe in gay marriage? Although this is just anecdata I have heard from a fair few GLBTI people that they have more important things to worry about than gay marriage and some who are actively against marriage in all its forms.
@tssk, that’s an entirely different question.
Also, what Mindy said.
Mindy we might have other things to worry about but it doesn’t mean we regard the question of gay marriage as unimportant. I’m grateful to Rudd for the reforms that were made to recognise gay relationships last year. I doubt they would have occurred under Gillard, and it’s pretty clear they were the high watermark of what we can expect from either of the major parties.
What I have heard Ken is that some people regard the whole ‘marriage’ thing as unimportant and believe that it actually detracts from the real issue of having equality under law, which Rudd went some way to reforming. I have hopes that the Gillard govt would do more, but you may be right.
Let’s hope at least that the reforms for gay couples aren’t recinded by the next government. (Of course there’s mass confusion as to what gay marriage actually means.)
Yes, wikipedia, font of all knowledge (ahem) says:
“Opponents of same-sex marriage within the gay community argue that fighting to achieve these benefits by means of extending marriage rights to same-sex couples privatizes benefits (e.g., health care) that should be made available to people regardless of their relationship status. They further argue that the same-sex marriage movement within the gay community discriminates against families that are composed of three or more intimate partners. Opposition to the same-sex marriage movement from within the gay community should not be confused with opposition from outside that community.”
“…further argue that the same-sex marriage movement within the gay community discriminates against families that are composed of three or more intimate partners.”
Three or more intimate parties? Isn’t that polygamy?
Ninety nine per cent into its term, Labor’s problem is it still thinks its in opposition fighting John Howard and the culture wars.
If its internal “advisors” spent less time reading The Australian and more time paying attention to the wider world, they’d discover the electorate is actually more tolerant and progressive than they imagine.
“Three or more intimate parties? Isn’t that polygamy?”
Er, no. Polygamy would be having more than one wife. Polyamory might be the word you’re looking for.
Don’t you just love the emotional adjectives and verbs the ABC use in their news reports. The just in page reports that the $A “tumbled” from 90.1 to 89.5 cents to the US dollar on the release of the latest CPI figures. Apparently, 0.6% is a tumble rather than a very small fall.
I think Gillard has saved the parental leave thing well – good presser this morning.
“If its internal “advisors” spent less time reading The Australian and more time paying attention to the wider world, they’d discover the electorate is actually more tolerant and progressive than they imagine.”
Agree Mr Denmore: we now have a situation where the Catholic countries of Spain, Portugal and France are way ahead on gay marriage.
Weird!
tssk @ 10 Did Penny Wong did ever say that ‘gay marriage is not desirable’ – my understanding is that she is following ALP protocol in not opposing the party line, although within Caucus she may well have been supporting in debate before a vote and policy decision. I thought Richo on Q & A this week did a good job of supporting her against accusations like this and pointing out how publicly opposing the party line on this would weaken her position and her usefulness to the gay cause, which to date has been considerable.
Actually, having more than one wife is polygyny, poly = lots, gyn- = to do with women, as in gynaecology and misogyny.
Stupid tag thingies.
I see the meeja is still obsessed with matters sexual and gendered and I condemn myself for being distracted by same. Can we have a special Election Condemnation thread, or would it break the blog?
[Fixed, I think]
@26 – Condemn away!
http://larvatusprodeo.ozblogistan.com.au/2010/07/28/i-wont-add-my-condemn-to-your-condemn-xlvii-federal-election-2010-edition/
Very interesting quote in the AFR today. Michael Roche, Queensland Resources Council Chief Executive, said that the ad campaign by smaller miners was making many mining companies uncomfortable. “The mining industry has always been full and frank about its views but it has always been reluctant to be seen as a player in an election contest. It’s just not our way.”
Of course, this could be self-serving tripe (because the big miners have their deal). But it does give some support for a view I’ve long held that the best way for the Labor govt to shake off the Minerals Council’s ad campaign was to call an election.
Certainly, if that’s true it was the government rather than the miners who held the whip hand in negotiations. However, despite that, the government did it’s now famous Swan dive (degree of difficulty: zero)and let the miners walk all over them.
Go figure.
There’s also a useful distinction between polygamy, which is one person having multiple partners, sometimes as a religious obligation with full knowledge of those partners and sometimes non-religiously without the knowledge of those partners, and polyamory, which is multiple partners having multiple relationships, possibly with multiple sexes, and everybody knowing the score.
“…and everybody knowing the score.”
Which is quite possibly nil-all at full time – decided by penalties.
In case you needed a laugh: Family First courts Sex Party prefs: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/28/2966456.htm
John Black in the AFR (who always seems to know what he’s talking about) thinks that the allocation of green prefs unduly favours labor and it’s about 51 – 49: a lot closer than many think.
@Pavlov’s Cat, clearly I need a new dictionary
At the last election, John Faulkner trailed Rudd around, giving him advice. Who’s fulfilling that job with Julia?
A couple of Labor lefties were handing out promos for Anthony Albanese at my local train station this a.m. It reads “Five Good Reasons to Vote Labor” and lists down the page Delivering economic security, delivering the education revolution, …real solutions on healthcare…delivering on the environment (whoa yeah) and delivering on social justice and human rights”. I suggested to the campaigner that they really should just have written Tony Abbott five times and he looked a little grim faced. I wouldn’t have thought that Albanese was in any trouble at all but maybe they have polling suggesting otherwise. I note that the header reads “Five good reasons to vote for Anthony albanese & Labor” which is cleary an attempt to distance the candidate from the party. Just a little.
Grayndler is winnable for the Greens, akn. The analysis below from tallyroom.com.au on Grayndler would be considered overly optimistic for Labor by many.
tigtog @36 says:
The Liberal Party candidate is Alexander Dore a university student. He barely looks old enough to shave.
If they direct preferences to the Greens before the ALP we’ll know they’re running dead in the hope of knocking off Anthony Albanese. Otherwise it’s more of a case of the usual shambolic Inner West Liberal organisation with Alexander being willing to have a go and having nothing to lose.
The Greens have nominated Sam Byrne, a former Mayor of Marrickville, so he already has a profile across much of the seat.
OK. Well that makes my 1 Greens and election night a whole lot more interesting.
Actually, it’s an interesting feminist point. If one takes the traditional position that the masculine point of view is normative/universal, then ‘polygamy’ and ‘polygyny’ do mean almost exactly the same thing. Perhaps research needs to be done into the gender politix of lexicographers. ARC project anyone?
Oh dear, one learns something new everyday.
“Polygyny”?
Good to see the Greens might be able to pull a reps seat.
PW, there’s a link at #25 to an explanation of ‘polygyny’ if you’re interested.
41, thanks. Its a new term to me; I also get your drift re the propositions in your post.
Finding nothing to make me feel I have missed out on in not voting again,except for the usual attacks on the unemployed where this election is as stupid as a dole form.After filling them in forever.Whenever the hopefuls clown with the word work,in any form whatsoever,I am reminded of youthful experience with queues.Gillard the now researched friend of Israel, abounds in the past, with many attitudes that are very offensive to me.As I will not assist reader at LP to know how far I am now into seeing reality as the previous unknown conspiracy against the human race,I just hope,whatever that means, that my sense of invention becomes increasingly pertinent,and accomplishable.I see no career, thus house land shed to play around in as a “tired of the bastards” 56 year old already acknowledging at the ripe old age of about 25 years of age,before today, this society has it in to kill its older workers as I also felt as a young worker the local employment possibilities were very limited.The two migrant leaders of the two major parties,and the startling belief by Tanner that people like myself were Anglo-Australians was the walk away words ,forever, from the body politic.It was like David Hill,poor suffering David Hill talking over the ABC in the eighties about the ABC’s Self assessment and role definition.It makes me almost puke him now being a head of a parents ethics group.Dominated once again by poms,from the economic scale of BHP Billiton to Hill.My Sir Robert Menzies accent I have worked on for years is the only weapon I have.So Sod off.With the usual apologies to poms who have a laugh with me as much as against me and Jews in Australia who are not convinced that their Jewishness is profoundly displayed by Israelis or prominent at times Americans.
You know, Polyamory seems diametrically opposed to the sharpness of the alternative.
Yes, gentler.
Climate check-up ‘screams world is warming’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/29/2967433.htm
ELECTION SUPERMARKETS
I didn’t have the chance to hear this on PM today, but heard the intro describing this election as being like two supermarkets where you could pick the policies off the shelf. Story was from some ‘expert’ in democracy (is their such a thing – as democracy, or an expert in democracy??)
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2968122.htm
BUT, that analogy/metaphor worked for me. Hey, even BUY THREE for the price of TWO when it comes to immigration or dentention policies. No doubt that this is a priceless election. Pay no interest for 48 months. Or have no interest for the next 4 weeks?
QUAGMIRE
What a sorry quagmire we (a very royal plural there) have allowed ourselves to get into by continuing with the two party system. They are so entrenched, that we can’t change things anway. They get the votes, they get the money (for the votes they get). They vote on how they get the money. It is compulsory preferential, so you can’t just vote for one person you think is best. The big parties end up with the preferences!! Imagine if there were smaller parties (like if Labor was two or three parties and Coalition even more) and they had to get the best of each bunch to form a Governemnt – interesting! OK, like Italy. Good coffee though!
DELLA BOSCA AND B. NEAL
Guess that John Della Bosca thinks Labor is heading for a win. Apparently he is off to head up a lobby for a National Disability Insurance Scheme. Same day Neal says bye-bye (for now?). Wonder if he put Bill Shorten down as a referee for the job?
CMMC @1
“I’m guessing it will be “Labor to pick up 5 more seats”. This is something like Peter Brent was saying many, many months ago. When Kevin07 was the PM. Despite the polls, PB felt Labor was in. Then came PENRITH!!!! Then came Jooolia!!! And now, I think PB is predicting an Abbotoracy.
CRONULLA & DRUNKS ON RAMPAGE DRAPED IN FLAGS
Whenever I get the despairs about JD and her mob of what I think are now mongrels to the most part (except for Tanya), I just think of the Howards, the Abbots, the Bishops, Hockeys and their ilk, these undescribables that promoted and incited the hatred that led to Cronulla. The other day my young teenage daughter told me that afternoon at a train station she was at, but a platform across there was a white bloke (maybe just a looney) who was abusing a black woman who was buying a ticket – just because she was black (Sudanese most likley) he was yelling at hear, that she was a b## c## and so on. And he most felt it was OK to do that. Thanks to the Abbots, Howards, Bishops and their mob.
ABBOTOCRACY IN GOVERNMENT
If gives me the creeps to think about them in Government. And do they get the opportunity because we have let the Labor Party get to the stage where they think they are above the electorate and only answerable to themselves and unions.
THE BOMBERS & THE SAINTS & TONY ABBOT
Okay, this is Melbourne. I’m hoping that the Bombers will get up against the Saints tomorrow night. Realistically, given current their form there is little chance. We (Bombers) ain’t been doing so well lately (except for last weekend) and we did beat th Sainters earlier in the year. But it is possible to rise to the occassion. So hope was there.BUT, then today, Tony Abbott visits Windy Hill – what does this mean – what kind of omen. Will the tea leaves tell that Tony visted and the mighty Bombers who have lost 11 games will overcoe the Saints who have lost only 4 games. Okay, TB obviously can’t handle a Sherrin and Jooolia has one in her office (maybe that is the omen). But, if Essendon win on Friday night, I’m predicting that then Abbot is in by a goal.